Neil Kinnock: Labour leader who lost ‘unlosable’ election predicts Starmer will end up in No 10
Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock has cautiously predicted a victory for Sir Keir Starmer at the next general election – but refused to speculate on whether he will win a majority.
Lord Kinnock famously lost the 1992 election despite the polls being stacked firmly in his favour as the country, then under its 13th consecutive year of a Conservative government, battled a recession and declining living standards.
His rival John Major clinched a victory in a shock outcome that resulted in five more years of the Tories in power, before being wiped out by Labour’s Tony Blair.
Given Sir Keir’s 20 point lead in the polls, pundits are questioning whether the next election could be a repeat of the party’s 1997 landslide victory, or a 1992 false dawn.
But Lord Kinnock told Sunday Morning With Trevor Philips (SMTP) that it will be “neither 92 or 97”.
“It’s going to be 24 because every single election is different.”
Pressed if he thought Labour will win, he said: “I’m convinced now that we’re not going to lose… I will go no further than that.”
He said he thought Sir Keir would end up in Downing Street, but that the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system made it too difficult to guess by how much anybody could win or lose by.
On criticism that Sir Keir is too cautious, he said the Labour leader is taking a sensible approach to win broad support for his party.
Neil Kinnock in 1985 (Pic: PA)
“Caution is fine. To be reserved, to not disclose full plans, to accept convections before the election to give the reassurance which is crucial to getting a breadth of support without which you can’t win… that is just sensible.”
The next election is expected to take place in the second half of this year.
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Labour needs a historic 12.7 percentage point swing to win a majority – larger than the 10.2% swing former prime minister Tony Blair achieved.
Labour has been buoyed by a series of by-election victories this parliament, including two on Friday, but Sir Keir has insisted he is not complacent – telling reporters this week: “You don’t win the league by a good result in February. So we’ve got to fight like we’re five points behind in the polls.”
It followed what was considered to be the biggest crisis of his leadership so far as the party became embroiled in another antisemitism row, which resulted in them withdrawing support for Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali.
Lord Kinnock said he believed Sir Keir “acted with courage and correctly” over the issue.
Pressed on whether Sir Keir would end up in 10 Downing Street, he said: “Yes. And I look forward to that very much because I think he would be a mature, honest, dependable leader of a party. And by God, we need all that now.”
Labour’s largest union donor, Unite, has voted to suspend Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner over her role in the Birmingham bin strike row.
Members of the trade union, one of the UK’s largest, also “overwhelmingly” voted to “re-examine its relationship” with Labour over the issue.
They said Ms Rayner, who is also housing, communities and local government secretary, Birmingham Council’s leader, John Cotton, and other Labour councillors had been suspended for “bringing the union into disrepute”.
There was confusion over Ms Rayner’s membership of Unite, with her office having said she was no longer a member and resigned months ago and therefore could not be suspended.
But Unite said she was registered as a member. Parliament’s latest register of interests had her down as a member in May.
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The union said an emergency motion was put to members at its policy conference in Brighton on Friday.
Unite is one of the Labour Party’s largest union donors, donating £414,610 in the first quarter of 2025 – the highest amount in that period by a union, company or individual.
The union condemned Birmingham’s Labour council and the government for “attacking the bin workers”.
Mountains of rubbish have been piling up in the city since January after workers first went on strike over changes to their pay, with all-out strike action starting in March. An agreement has still not been made.
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Rat catcher tackling Birmingham’s bins problem
Ms Rayner and the councillors had their membership suspended for “effectively firing and rehiring the workers, who are striking over pay cuts of up to £8,000”, the union added.
‘Missing in action’
General secretary Sharon Graham told Sky News on Saturday morning: “Angela Rayner, who has the power to solve this dispute, has been missing in action, has not been involved, is refusing to come to the table.”
She had earlier said: “Unite is crystal clear, it will call out bad employers regardless of the colour of their rosette.
“Angela Rayner has had every opportunity to intervene and resolve this dispute but has instead backed a rogue council that has peddled lies and smeared its workers fighting huge pay cuts.
“The disgraceful actions of the government and a so-called Labour council, is essentially fire and rehire and makes a joke of the Employment Relations Act promises.
“People up and down the country are asking whose side is the Labour government on and coming up with the answer not workers.”
Piles of rubbish built up around Birmingham because of the strike over pay
Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said the government’s “priority is and always has been the residents of Birmingham”.
He said the decision by Unite workers to go on strike had “caused disruption” to the city.
“We’ve worked to clean up streets and remain in close contact with the council […] as we support its recovery,” he added.
A total of 800 Unite delegates voted on the motion.
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