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Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock has cautiously predicted a victory for Sir Keir Starmer at the next general election – but refused to speculate on whether he will win a majority.

Lord Kinnock famously lost the 1992 election despite the polls being stacked firmly in his favour as the country, then under its 13th consecutive year of a Conservative government, battled a recession and declining living standards.

His rival John Major clinched a victory in a shock outcome that resulted in five more years of the Tories in power, before being wiped out by Labour’s Tony Blair.

Given Sir Keir’s 20 point lead in the polls, pundits are questioning whether the next election could be a repeat of the party’s 1997 landslide victory, or a 1992 false dawn.

But Lord Kinnock told Sunday Morning With Trevor Philips (SMTP) that it will be “neither 92 or 97”.

“It’s going to be 24 because every single election is different.”

Pressed if he thought Labour will win, he said: “I’m convinced now that we’re not going to lose… I will go no further than that.”

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He said he thought Sir Keir would end up in Downing Street, but that the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system made it too difficult to guess by how much anybody could win or lose by.

On criticism that Sir Keir is too cautious, he said the Labour leader is taking a sensible approach to win broad support for his party.

Neil Kinnock in 1985
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Neil Kinnock in 1985 (Pic: PA)

“Caution is fine. To be reserved, to not disclose full plans, to accept convections before the election to give the reassurance which is crucial to getting a breadth of support without which you can’t win… that is just sensible.”

The next election is expected to take place in the second half of this year.

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Labour needs a historic 12.7 percentage point swing to win a majority – larger than the 10.2% swing former prime minister Tony Blair achieved.

Labour has been buoyed by a series of by-election victories this parliament, including two on Friday, but Sir Keir has insisted he is not complacent – telling reporters this week: “You don’t win the league by a good result in February. So we’ve got to fight like we’re five points behind in the polls.”

It followed what was considered to be the biggest crisis of his leadership so far as the party became embroiled in another antisemitism row, which resulted in them withdrawing support for Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali.

Lord Kinnock said he believed Sir Keir “acted with courage and correctly” over the issue.

Pressed on whether Sir Keir would end up in 10 Downing Street, he said: “Yes. And I look forward to that very much because I think he would be a mature, honest, dependable leader of a party. And by God, we need all that now.”

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Battle to convince MPs to back benefit cuts to more than three million households

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Battle to convince MPs to back benefit cuts to more than three million households

Plans for cuts to benefits which will impact more than three million households will be published today – as the government faces a battle to convince dozens of Labour MPs to back them.

Liz Kendall, the welfare secretary, has set out proposals to cut £5bn from the welfare budget – which she has said is “unsustainable” and “trapping people in welfare dependency”.

Disabled people claiming PIP, the personal independence payment which helps people – some of them working – with the increased costs of daily living, face having their awards reviewed from the end of next year.

An estimated 800,000 current and future PIP recipients will lose an average of £4,500 a year, according to a government assessment.

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Government’s battle over welfare reforms

The government also intends to freeze the health element of Universal Credit, claimed by more than two million people, at £97 a week during this parliament, and cut the rate to £50 for new claimants.

Under pressure from Labour MPs concerned particularly that changes to PIP will drive families into poverty, Ms Kendall will announce new protections in the bill today.

Sky News understands they include a 13-week transition period for those losing PIP; a higher rate of Universal Credit for people with the most serious conditions; and a commitment that disabled people who take a job will not immediately lose their benefits.

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Some 40 Labour MPs have signed a letter refusing to support the cuts; and dozens of others have concerns, including ministers.

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Benefits cuts explained

Ms Kendall is determined to press ahead, and has said the number of new PIP claimants has doubled since 2019 – at 34,000, up from 15,000.

Ministers say 90% of current claimants will not lose their benefits; and that many people will be better off – with the total welfare bill set to continue to rise over this parliament.

To keep the benefit, claimants must score a minimum of four points out of eight on one of the daily living criteria.

Ministers say claimants with the most serious conditions, who cannot work, will not face constant reassessments.

A £1bn programme is proposed, intended to give disabled people who can work tailored support to find jobs.

Some Labour MPs have angrily opposed the reforms – which will be voted on later this month.

Last night in a parliamentary debate, Labour MP for Poole Neil Duncan-Jordan disputed the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) figures.

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He said: “We already know that PIP is an underclaimed benefit. The increase in claims is a symptom of declining public health and increased financial hardship disabled people are facing.

“We have the same proportion of people on working-age benefits as in 2015. This is not an economic necessity, it’s a political choice.”

Liz Kendall
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Liz Kendall

Rachael Maskell, Labour MP for York, called the proposals “devastating “. She said: “We must change direction and not proceed with these cuts.”

Disability groups say they fear an increase in suicides and mental health conditions.

The government’s own assessment forecast an extra 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty – including 50,000 children. It did not include the impact of people moving into work.

Ms Kendall was urged by MPs on the Commons Work and Pensions committee to delay the reforms, to carry out an impact assessment, but wrote back to the committee saying the reforms were too urgent to delay – and that MPs would be able to amend the legislation.

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GENIUS Act could strengthen dollar power, write ‘rulebook’ for global financial system

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GENIUS Act could strengthen dollar power, write ‘rulebook’ for global financial system

GENIUS Act could strengthen dollar power, write ‘rulebook’ for global financial system

After clearing a key procedural vote, the GENIUS Act faces a final decision in the Senate before moving to the House of Representatives.

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Regulatory uncertainty looms as CFTC struggles with vacancies

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Regulatory uncertainty looms as CFTC struggles with vacancies

Regulatory uncertainty looms as CFTC struggles with vacancies

New legislation in Washington would have the CFTC regulate crypto, but is it currently able to provide effective rulemaking?

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