Was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for Russia taking Avdiivka?

Published

2 months ago

February 18, 2024

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The fall of Avdiivka has handed Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut following nine months of gruelling attritional warfare.

But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the start of a dangerous new phase of the war?

Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the fiercest and most bloody battles of the war. Russian forces have laid siege to the small Ukrainian city for the past four months.

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The Ukrainian forces have been significantly overmatched by Russian troops, with some reports suggesting that areas of the frontline had 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian.

The Russian Air Force has also been playing an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relatively close proximity of the sanctuary of Russian airspace.

Delivering over 60 bombs a day on to Ukrainian frontline positions eventually rendered the Ukrainian defence of Avdiivka untenable, as the Russian forces have slowly been encircling the city.

Ukraine’s decision to retreat from the frontline city appears justified militarily, but that has not stopped President Zelenskyy and President Biden highlighting Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and the increasingly critical nature of further delays to securing the $60bn of aid currently being delayed by the US Congress.

Although Ukraine will be keen to secure long-term funding support from the US, the critical Ukrainian need at this time is weapons and ammunition.

The EU has approved ongoing funding support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into ammunition available to frontline soldiers is a challenge.

For the past two years, the majority of the weapons provided to Ukraine have been sourced from the war chests of Western nations.

However, those stocks are now running low, and there are no ready supplies available commercially.

Activating an individual nation’s defence industrial base to design, build and deliver replacement weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine’s future military requirements.

The West has successfully sourced some replacement ammunition – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in attritional warfare which favours the larger force, so this is not Ukraine’s priority.

In contrast, Ukraine has seized the initiative in this war through the West providing high-technology, precision strike weapons such as the UK Storm Shadow missile.

This weapon has proven very effective at attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running low – Ukraine want more.

However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of the components are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.

The West could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons from its inventory or directly from the manufacturers; however, technology is the West’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.

There is always a risk that some of the West’s donated weapons will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and the West cannot afford to compromise its own national security.

As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with enduring military support is through a coordinated investment in the international defence industrial base.

However, the investment, development, production and testing process all takes time – which Ukraine does not have.

Although Russia has achieved a rare victory by seizing Avdiivka, its military forces suffered very high casualties during the four-month siege of the city.

Offensive action in the winter is difficult; the cold weather is unforgiving, there is limited natural cover from leaves and foliage, and the ground is frozen making it hard to dig foxholes.

So why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?

The 24 February marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Putin will have been very keen to demonstrate battlefield success to boost the moral of its forces.

Putin will also want to demonstrate progress in his “special military operation” in advance of the Russian presidential elections being held next month.

However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to mount a significant offensive anytime soon, and that the coming year could be characterised by a series of smaller indecisive actions along the frontline.

But, if the West fails to address Ukraine’s desperate need for munitions, that will create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, and one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.

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Ireland pledging emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to UK in wake of Rwanda bill being passed

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11 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Ireland pledging emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to UK in wake of Rwanda bill being passed

Ireland is pledging emergency legislation enabling it to send asylum seekers back to the UK.

More than 80% of recent arrivals in the republic came via the land border with Northern Ireland, Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week.

Rishi Sunak told Sky News it showed the UK’s Rwanda scheme was already working as a deterrent after it finally became law last week.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister has said the threat of deportation to Rwanda is causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of the UK.

Micheal Martin said the policy was already affecting Ireland because people are “fearful” of staying in the UK.

The former taoiseach told The Daily Telegraph: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Simon Harris, Ireland’s latest leader, has asked Ms McEntee to “bring proposals to cabinet to amend existing law regarding the designation of safe ‘third countries’ and allowing the return of inadmissible international protection applicants to the UK”, a spokesman said.

Ms McEntee said she will be meeting UK Home Secretary James Cleverly in London on Monday.

“There are many reasons why we have seen an increase in migration towards Ireland,” she told RTE.

“My focus as minister for justice is making sure that we have an effective immigration structure and system.

“That’s why I’m introducing fast processing, that’s why I’ll have emergency legislation at cabinet this week to make sure that we can effectively return people to the UK, and that’s why I’ll be meeting with the home secretary to raise these issues on Monday.”

People are now “worried” about coming to the UK, Rishi Sunak has said.

He told Sky News: “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay here, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”

Mr Sunak said the comments from Irish politicians show that “illegal migration is a global challenge”.

“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe [they] will follow where the UK has led,” he said.

Shadow minister Wes Streeting said it was unlikely a Labour government would bring people back from Rwanda if some are sent there.

“Once people are settled in Rwanda, they’re settled in Rwanda,” he told Sky News, adding it was doubtful that Labour would “unpick that situation”.

Regarding illegal migration in general, he said it required “putting the money that’s gone to Rwanda into the National Crime Agency so we can have proper cross-border policing to tackle the criminal gangs, speeding up the processing of decision-making, making sure we’ve got serious returns agreements with other countries”.

He added: “Those are solutions that can work.”

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Pope makes first visit out of Rome for seven months after health scares

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12 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Pope makes first visit out of Rome for seven months after health scares

Pope Francis has made his first trip out of Rome for seven months with a visit to Venice where he asked worshippers to “pray for me”.

It was a rare acknowledgement of the strains of the job as he told thousands of the faithful gathered in St Mark’s Square: “This work is not easy”.

During a five-hour visit on Sunday, the pontiff visited an art exhibition and prison as well as conducting mass.

The 87-year-old unexpectedly withdrew from a Good Friday procession in March “to preserve his health”.

He had been battling respiratory problems all winter that made it difficult for him to speak at length.

In December, he was due to go to the United Arab Emirates, but pulled out after coming down with flu.

A painful knee ailment makes it hard for him to walk and on Sunday he regularly used a wheelchair, with Vatican News Television cutting away whenever he was helped into a chair to give a speech, or on to his white golf cart.

The Pope acknowledged Venice’s “enchanting beauty” in his homily at a mass before about 10,000 people in the shadow of St Mark’s Basilica, one of the most celebrated churches in Italy.

But he said the city also faced an array of challenges, including climate change, the fragility of its cultural heritage, and overtourism.

“Moreover, all these realities risk generating… frayed social relations, individualism, and loneliness,” he said.

Venice introduced a €5 charge last week for day-trippers during peak travel periods in an effort to thin the crowds.

He started the day by flying by helicopter into a women’s prison where the Vatican has set up an exhibition that is part of the Venice Biennale, a prestigious international art show that has never been visited by a pope before.

The pope has repeatedly called for society to rally around the poor and neglected, including prison populations.

“Prison is a harsh reality, and problems such as overcrowding, the lack of facilities and resources, and episodes of violence, give rise to a great deal of suffering. But it can also become a place of moral and material rebirth,” he told inmates and guards on Sunday.

He also addressed a group of young Venetians, urging them not to spend their life glued to their smartphones, but to help others.

“If we always focus on our self, our needs, and what we lack, we will always find ourselves back at the starting point, crying over ourselves with a long face,” he said.

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Russian journalists jailed over alleged work for Alexei Navalny group

Published

13 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Russian journalists jailed over alleged work for Alexei Navalny group

Two Russian journalists could face at least two years in prison after they were arrested on “extremism” charges, accused of working for a group founded by the late Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny.

Konstantin Gabov and Sergey Karelin are accused of preparing materials for a YouTube channel run by Navalny’s Foundation for Fighting Corruption, which has been outlawed by Russian authorities.

Russian courts have ordered them to remain in custody pending an investigation and trial.

They will be detained for at least two months before any trial begins.

They face a minimum of two years’ jail time and a maximum of six years for alleged “participation in an extremist organisation”, according to Russian courts.

Both journalists deny the charges.

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The journalists are the latest to be arrested amid a Russian government crackdown on dissent and independent media that intensified after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian government passed laws criminalising what it deems false information or discreditory statements about the military, effectively outlawing any criticism of the war in Ukraine.

Mr Gabov, who was detained in Moscow, is a freelance producer who has worked for multiple outlets, including Reuters, the court press service said.

Mr Karelin, who has dual citizenship with Israel and has previously worked for The Associated Press, was detained on Friday night in Russia’s northern Murmansk region.

“The Associated Press is very concerned by the detention of Russian video journalist Sergey Karelin,” the AP said in a statement. “We are seeking additional information.”

Their arrests come after Forbes journalist Sergei Mingazov was detained on charges of spreading false information about the Russian military on Friday, according to his lawyer.

A number of journalists have been jailed in relation to their coverage of Mr Navalny, who died in an Arctic penal colony in February.