Daytona 500 is never fair but Byron’s victory is no fluke
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Ryan McGee, ESPN Senior Writer
DAYTONA BEACH, Florida — They don’t call it the Fair American Race.
They do not call it the Satisfying American Race, the Predictable American Race or the Tidy American Race. It’s the Great American Race. As in, great at keeping us guessing.
NASCAR‘s biggest single event, which was held for the 66th time on a rain-postponed Monday evening at the self-declared World Center of Racing, can be described by a list of lead characteristics that shifts and shuffles more chaotically than this year’s Daytona 500 pinball machine of a leaderboard that produced 41 lead changes between 20 different drivers, five over the race’s final 20 laps.
But fair? No. Never fair. That’s the nature of a 2.5-mile superspeedway with tight quarters in skyscraper turns, an asphalt beast that has never made much sense to any eyes, be they engineers, spectators or the poor souls who have decided to drive around that monster at 200 mph.
“It’s speedway racing. It’s a lot of fun until it sucks,” declared Joey Logano, who led a race-best 45 laps but ended his night 33rd, wrecked while running third and battling for the lead again with less than ten laps remaining. “It’s usually the guys who start the wreck that survive. That’s the frustrating part.”
The car whose nose found the car that hit Logano? It was in the accordion collision only because another car had hit it when the cars ahead of them started scrambling and forced everyone behind them to suddenly slow down, and was driven William Byron. Byron’s Chevy was popped from behind by teammate Alex Bowman, causing Byron to hit second place Brad Keselowski, who was turned into Logano, who then teamed up to take out 20 other cars behind them. That group included nine of the 20 drivers who had led the race at some point during the day.
When the checkered flag was finally shown nearly 30 minutes later, who was the winner? It was Byron.
See? Not fair.
“You’re trying to make the right decisions, the right calls, to get yourself into position to win the race,” said Jeff Gordon, who won this race twice driving the same No. 24 Chevy that he now helps oversee as chairman of Hendrick Motorsports. “But in this type of racing, when the finish is coming, there isn’t much you can control but to put your foot into the gas and hope that whatever happens — because something is going to happen — that you be out in front of it.”
Something definitely happened. And it did again when Byron was leading and barely made it across the start-finish line to begin the 199th and final circuit before another multicar crash unfurled behind him.
“Yes, you know that’s coming. So, if you are fortunate to be in the lead — and by the way, that also makes you the target — you look in the rearview mirror and hope you can outrun it,” Byron said in Victory Lane, his firesuit freshly saturated in champagne. “We did. And I can’t believe it.”
Neither could many of the tens of thousands of fans who showed up for a sunny, cool Monday afternoon green flag after Daytona had also been saturated in two days of near-record February Central Florida rainfall. They had watched fan favorites such as Byron’s other Hendrick Motorsports teammates, former Cup champs Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson, run up front. They had cheered and booed as they watched veterans such as Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Keselowski — all future NASCAR Hall of Famers — also spend time at the point, only to come up short. Hamlin failed to earn a historic fourth Daytona 500 win. The other three extended their Daytona 500 career droughts to a combined 0-for-54.
However, no one, not those in the grandstands Monday night nor those watching from home, should make the lazy mistake of viewing Byron’s victory as a fluke.
“I’m always the ‘other guy’ right?” Byron half-joked, pointing in his very own building to Elliott and Larson, not to mention Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., even Terry Labonte, Tim Richmond, Geoff Bodine and the other legends who have won at Hendrick Motorsports. His win Monday was the team’s record-tying ninth Great American Race triumph and came on the 40th anniversary of its very first Cup race, when Bodine finished eight in the 1984 Daytona 500. “That has been hard on me. I have probably let it bother me too much, but it has also been a big motivator for me. I came into this year with a chip on my shoulder because of it. I am a quiet guy. My background in racing isn’t typical. I started out in gaming, a kid who was just a NASCAR fan, and I got a relatively late jump on driving. I don’t come from a long line of racers. But OK, underestimate me. See how that works out.”
Make no mistake, this race produces flukes. Or, put more kindly, unforeseen victories. One year ago, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and little JTG Daugherty Racing earned the first win for the driver in seven years and for the team in nearly a decade, and did it in the sport’s most prestigious race. In 2022, Austin Cindric, a de facto rookie, earned his first — and so far, only — Cup Series win. In 2021, Michael McDowell snapped a career 0-for-357 winless streak by outlasting a demolition derby of a 500 and pulling into a pandemic-emptied Victory Lane.
But Byron led the Cup Series with six wins one year ago and made the cut for the season finale Championship Four. The year before he won two races. In seven years of driving at NASCAR’s top level, he has made the Playoffs six times, missing only his rookie campaign, and has now posted at least one win in each of the past five years. His 11th career win not only all but guarantees him a spot in this year’s fall playoff field, it also moves him past Donnie Allison on NASCAR’s all-time victories list. Allison was inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame last month.
Byron is 26 years old.
“What we know about this race is that we don’t know what is going to happen. For a long time, we have hauled zero trophies home, but instead we have hauled home a lot of wrecked race cars,” an emotional Rick Hendrick explained, quick to remind that, yes, this was his ninth Daytona 500 win, but his first in a decade. “There are always a lot of surprises in this race and at this place. Mostly bad ones. But no one should be surprised that William Byron is a Daytona 500 champion.”
Hendrick reached over and grabbed the arm of Gordon.
“He reminds of you this guy back in the day,” he said. “He has so much talent and he’s just getting started. It doesn’t seem fair, does it?”
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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