Could your city get an MLB expansion team? Breaking down potential top candidates
Major League Baseball expansion is coming — it’s just a matter of when … and where.
While the timeline for MLB to go to 32 teams remains a bit murky, commissioner Rob Manfred recently said he hopes to have a process “in place” for the league to expand to 32 teams before he retires in 2029.
There are plenty of candidates to land one of the franchises when the sport does expand, headlined by a pair of cities that have moved to the front of the line. Is your city one of the places that baseball could be eyeing? We asked our MLB reporters to break down the cases for and against the leading options.
Austin/San Antonio
City population: 961,855 (Austin); 1,434,625 (San Antonio)
Metro area population: 2,421,115 (Austin); 2,655,342 (San Antonio)
TV market rank: 35 (Austin); 31 (San Antonio)
Most likely nickname: Austin has the largest urban bat population so The Austin Bats is a strong option, but they would have to share it with the minor league team in Louisville.
Most likely stadium location: According to Austin journalist Bryan Parker, the area east of the city could work. It includes a newer toll road, and it’s where Tesla has headquarters as well as where the airport is located.
The case for Austin/San Antonio: Because these two cities are so close in proximity, we’ll focus on Austin and San Antonio together for a potential expansion team. With that in mind, the case for Austin isn’t a hard one to make. It’s one of the largest U.S. markets without an existing NFL, NBA or MLB team — and it’s still growing, recently moving into the top 10 in population. It also has an expanding tech and big company community which includes Apple and Amazon, among many others. Austin FC, a Major League Soccer team that began play in 2021, sold out all 17 of its home games in 2022, providing a test case for professional sports in the area. With San Antonio just 90 minutes from Austin — even closer if a stadium were to be built north of the city — the two can potentially combine their reach.
What could stop it from landing a team: Does Matthew McConaughey like baseball? The actor, who has strong ties to the area, helped spearhead the recently built Moody Center where the University of Texas basketball teams now play. A similar commitment could help the concept of Major League Baseball in Austin gain ground, but a local ambassador has yet to emerge.
The biggest obstacle either Austin or San Antonio face in getting a team, might be the Houston Astros — who play just three-plus hours away and have developed a strong fan base in the region. — Jesse Rogers
Charlotte
City population: 874,579
Metro area population: 2,756,069
TV market rank: 21
Most likely nickname: The Charlotte MLB Project lists the Charlotte Aviators as a possibility.
Most likely stadium location: There is no clear choice here. Truist Field, the home of the Triple-A Charlotte Knights, sits uptown with a view of the city’s skyline but seats just over 10,000 fans and was not built to expand to major league capacity.
The case for Charlotte: The Charlotte metro area is bigger than those of some existing MLB teams, including Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Cleveland. Charlotte already has proven it can support multiple professional sports teams — with an NFL, NBA and MLS team all located in the city — and that doesn’t include the NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes, who play just over 2.5 hours away in Raleigh. The Knights, who are the White Sox Triple-A affiliate, also play in the Queen City’s downtown area and ranked 10th in all of the minors in attendance last season.
What could stop it from landing a team: Location. It is extremely unlikely that MLB would add two teams in the same region when it expands, and at the moment, Nashville appears to be at the front of the line to land a team. The Music City has demonstrated more organized interest in bringing an MLB team than Charlotte has, so the Charlotte MLB Project — a movement to bring baseball to Charlotte — would have to kick into high gear to close the gap. — Rogers
Mexico City
City population: 9,209,944
Metro area population: 21,804,515
TV market rank: N/A
Most likely nickname: The Red Devils are a very successful Mexican League team that plays out of the city’s biggest ballpark (Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium), and the locals have thrown around the idea of a future MLB team taking that nickname — though that might not fly given the controversy surrounding the Tampa Bay “Devil Rays’ nickname.
Most likely stadium location: Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium, the place that hosted the first regular-season MLB series in Mexico City last year and will do so again this year (the Colorado Rockies and the Houston Astros will play two games there in late April). The ballpark opened just five years ago, but it has a seating capacity of only about 20,000 and would have to expand in order to host major league teams on a regular basis.
The case for Mexico City: It is right up there with Sao Paulo in Brazil as the largest city in the Western Hemisphere. Mexico City is vibrant, diverse and the people there love baseball, especially after Mexico’s thrilling run through the World Baseball Classic last spring. Tickets for last year’s two-game series between the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres — which marked MLB’s first regular-season series in Mexico’s capital city — sold out in less than an hour. The atmosphere at those games was electric.
On Opening Day last year more than 30% of MLB rosters were composed of Hispanic players. Because of the interest in the sport in Latin America, putting an expansion team in the region makes too much sense — and having one in Mexico would be far more feasible than having one in Cuba, the Dominican Republic or Venezuela, for a myriad of reasons.
What could stop it from landing a team: A lot, unfortunately, the most prominent reason might be the limits on revenue that can be drawn in a country where its currency is exceedingly volatile and the people who live there earn far less than they do in the United States or Canada. Mexico City’s reputation for high crime rates — whether fair or not — might make it difficult for a team there to attract top-tier free agent talent, as might the fact that the city is located roughly 600 miles south of any U.S. city.
The stadium sits a whopping 7,349 feet above sea level — more than 2,000 feet higher than even Coors Field — but a bigger problem might be that it does not possess a roof, given the amount of rain that falls on Mexico City in the summer months. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred also said leading up to last year’s Mexico City series that he has “never been close to the idea of Mexico as an expansion opportunity.” – Alden Gonzalez
Montreal
City population: 1,762,949
Metro area population: 4,291,732
TV market rank: N/A
Most likely nickname: Expos. This is one part of the process that has never been murky in Montreal, where the vibe among the pro-MLB crowd has always been more “bring back the Expos” than “we want an expansion team.”
Most likely stadium location: This is very much up in the air. The Peel Basin site that had been floated as a possible stadium location has more recently been targeted for housing development. Oversized and under-used Olympic Stadium is set to be renovated, though that appears more for general use than anything Expos-related.
The case for Montreal: After a string of MLB-related disappointments, Montreal needs baseball to make the next first move by launching a formal expansion process. When that happens, we know Montreal can mobilize and do so quickly, perhaps as well as any candidate city. They’ve pulled together studies, pinpointed stadium sites and created the core of a potential ownership group — they’ve even surveyed their fans — all elusive elements of a bid that have to come together at the right time. All of that legwork was for a now-expired bid, but what hasn’t changed is that Montreal remains easily the largest of the leading candidates in market size, a fact that will keep them in the conversation.
“I would look at us as being the most mature of the groups that are out there,” said William Jegher, a Montreal-based executive for Ernst & Young who was a key figure in Montreal’s most recent push for a team. “When baseball launches a process, then we would examine what that process looks like and then make a decision as to whether it makes sense for us to put forth a bid.”
What could stop it from landing a team: The last serious bid to put Montreal forward as an expansion candidate fizzled. The reason for that isn’t because of anything the Montreal Baseball Project did wrong but more a matter of timing — they made a strong case for the city before MLB was really ready to consider the issue. For a couple of years, the bid seemed at least half-successful because of a proposed sister city concept in which Montreal and the Tampa Bay area would have shared the Rays. That notion was ultimately kiboshed by MLB in January, 2022.
After so many disappointments, it may really come down to how much of a thirst for a baseball team remains in a city that, by the time MLB gets the expansion wheels turning, could be a quarter century past the loss of the Expos. In the meantime, it is imperative that those in Montreal still pining for a club keep those fires burning. – Bradford Doolittle
Nashville
City population: 689,447
Metro area population: 2,046,715
TV market rank: 27
Most likely nickname: The Stars (Music City Baseball has branded its pitch around the city’s former Negro Leagues team’s name) and the Sounds (the current name of Nashville’s Triple-A club) are the clear options.
Most likely stadium location: There could be space across the Cumberland River from downtown Nashville, near the Titans’ current and future homes.
The case for Nashville: Based on conversations with high-ranking executives within the sport, it seems close to a fait accompli that Nashville will win one of the next expansion teams. When the owners actually form a committee to study the possible growth from 30 to 32 teams, they will talk about how Music City is already a major league city, with the NFL’s Titans and NHL’s Predators and tremendous population growth, in a part of the country that is wild about sports. For example: The area leadership just committed $2.1 billion — that’s probably more than the cost of an expansion franchise — for a new Titans stadium.
What could stop it from landing a team: Nashville is not necessarily close to Cincinnati, St. Louis or Atlanta, but the major league teams from those cities will probably cringe at the idea of having pieces of their respective fan nations shaved off — though those concerns would probably not preclude Nashville from getting a team. – Buster Olney
Orlando
City population: 307,573
Metro area population: 2,764,182
TV market rank: 17
Most likely nickname: The group trying to bring baseball to the city has branded itself the Orlando Dreamers, “a nod to Walt Disney and Arnold Palmer and the many other visionaries who helped develop this area,” according to their website. Something Disney-related — similar to the NHL’s Anaheim Ducks — seems like a likely option.
Most likely stadium location: With the available hotel and land space along with a constant flow of visitors, it would make sense to put a park near Disney World.
The case for Orlando: It is already a major league city, with the NBA’s Magic in town since 1989, and Orlando is much bigger than places like Cleveland and Cincinnati that already have MLB teams.
After trial and errors with the Marlins and the Rays in the state, you’d assume that any ballpark project would be well-placed and include a necessary roof to combat Florida’s seemingly daily wave of late-afternoon showers. A family could cap off a day of rides at theme parks by catching a big league game.
What could stop it from landing a team: The history of the Marlins and Rays, franchises that have already struggled badly for attention. The two teams have consistently been at or near the bottom of the majors in attendance, and so the idea of dropping a third team into the state makes some executives queasy. “There’s no way you’d put a third team in Florida,” said one evaluator. “No way.” – Olney
Portland
City population: 652,503
Metro area population: 2,509,140
TV market rank: 22
Most likely nickname: Former Nike executive Craig Cheek and former Trail Blazers broadcaster Mike Barrett head the Portland Diamond Project and have decided to avoid a team name for now.
“We’ll involve the fans in that, for sure,” Barrett said. The Portland Beavers were the longtime Pacific Coast League team — but that’s also the nickname of the Oregon State University sports teams, so a different name seems likely.
Most likely stadium location: Cheek and Barrett believe this is one of their group’s top selling points, as they’re zeroing in on 164 acres at what is now the RedTail Golf Center in suburban Beaverton located about a mile from Nike headquarters. How does Swoosh Stadium sound?
“You get to dream big when you have 164 acres,” Cheek said, and the PDP is envisioning a sports, entertainment and business complex that would be the largest ballpark district in America and more than twice the size of The Battery ballpark development that has been a major success for the Atlanta Braves. The state also has about $300 million in state bonds to issue to support a stadium project (paid for with a “jock tax”).
The case for Portland: If MLB puts one team in the West and one in the East, that makes Portland a front-runner. Portland is also the largest market in the country with just one of the four major pro sports teams. “We’re an underserved sports market,” Barrett says. The Trail Blazers have been enormously popular for decades and both the men’s and women’s soccer teams in MLS and the NWSL play to sellout crowds.
With MLB likely to realign to eight divisions of four teams after expansion, a Portland team would also create a natural rival for the Seattle Mariners and make travel easier for the rest of the league. “MLB loves its rivalries,” Barrett points out.
While the Beavers last played to meager crowds in 2010 (finishing last in the PCL in attendance), the PDP has a mailing list of 75,000 people, with two-thirds of those fans saying they would be willing season-ticket buyers. “PDX” baseball merchandise — with a “P” logo from the original Portland minor league team from the late 1800s — has been a big seller. “I don’t think any of the other cities out West have put in as much time or energy and are as turnkey ready as we are,” Cheek said.
What could stop it from landing a team: Besides concerns about whether Portland is a baseball city, who is the owner? Cheek and Barrett say they have local investors attached to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, and once a real estate deal is secured, they will announce an ownership. You can expect some real estate developers to be involved (along with NFL quarterback Russell Wilson and wife Ciara, who are already investors). – David Schoenfield
Raleigh
City population: 467,665
Metro area population: 1,484,338
TV market rank: 23
Most likely nickname: The “Bring MLB to Raleigh” group has avoided any nickname possibilities, sticking with a “919” area code logo and black-and-white color schematic for its website. A team could even go with “Raleigh” or “Carolina” (like the NHL Hurricanes). One name that did pop up during a team concept event was the Raleigh Capitals, the name of various minor league teams from 1900 through 1967.
Most likely stadium location: There are three possible sites under discussion, but the favorite may be an 80-acre area of open land around PNC Arena, home of the Hurricanes. Billionaire Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon just signed a 20-year lease with the arena, has the right to develop the land — and, oh, is now the money man behind the potential MLB bid.
The case for Raleigh: The push for Raleigh began as a bottom-up, community-driven idea. Only later were Charlie Perusse, a former North Carolina state budget director with the necessary political connections, and Dundon brought on board. Governor Roy Cooper has also publicly supported Raleigh over Charlotte. It helps that Raleigh is one of the few cities with a deep-pocketed owner already on board.
Lou Pascucci, one of the founders of the community group, points to Raleigh’s demographics as a surprising positive. The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Triangle population is over 2.1 million and growing rapidly, with the highest median income of any metro area without an MLB team. With Charlotte, North Carolina has two TV markets in the top 50, and a population (11 million) larger than Tennessee (7 million) or Utah (3.4 million).
“We have some of the strongest market viability metrics, we have vocal government support, we have a lot of exciting land options, we have a loud, passionate community movement, and we have Tom Dundon leading the charge,” Pascucci said.
What could stop it from landing a team: Nashville is the sexier pick and probably the favorite among the Eastern cities. Is there enough corporate support? “I don’t think Tom Dundon believes that’s a problem,” said Pascucci, pointing out the Hurricanes were second in the NHL in attendance in 2022-23.
“If you don’t live here, people would be surprised at how rich the baseball culture is in The Triangle,” Pascucci said. “If we end up getting a team, the Triangle and Raleigh would be listed next to St. Louis and Cincinnati for their passion as a baseball city.” — Schoenfield
San Jose
City population: TK
Metro area population: 1,938,524
TV market rank: 10
Most likely nickname: The mayor’s office of San Jose kicked around some names recently, including: Spirit (partly an homage to the Winchester Mystery House, considered one of the most haunted places in the world); Bees (the name of the city’s original Class A team, though also fitting with the A’s leaving); Sol (in honor of the city’s Hispanic heritage); and Innovators (for the city’s tech hub). This was basically just a brainstorming exercise, however.
Most likely stadium location: While trying to get the A’s to relocate to San Jose roughly 10 years ago, the city released renderings for a new ballpark in the downtown area, near the corner of South Montgomery Street and Park Avenue. Google then purchased that land as part of its desire to build an 80-acre campus — a project that has since stalled — but local officials say there are still a handful of other potential, city-owned sites downtown that can support a major league ballpark.
The case for San Jose: The Bay Area is plenty big enough to support two baseball teams; many would argue, actually, that it’d be absurd if that weren’t the case. San Jose is the biggest city in the Bay Area and more than four times the size of Oakland. It’s nestled within Silicon Valley, surrounded by the biggest tech companies in the world, and produces more than $400 billion annually in gross domestic product. A $12 billion project is underway to extend the BART transit system into the city. In other words, there are major revenue opportunities in this city. Not to mention a major void with the A’s on the verge of leaving Oakland.
What could stop it from landing a team: Territorial rights. The San Francisco Giants own the territorial rights for Santa Clara County, blocking any major league franchise trying to move into that area. It was essentially gifted to them in 1990 for the purposes of building a new stadium and stayed with them. It’s a rather unique situation. Stripping the Giants of those rights would require approval from three-quarters of MLB’s owners — a hurdle San Jose’s elected officials have been unable to clear.
They tried to about 10 years ago, taking the case all the way to the Supreme Court in an effort to get the A’s to relocate to their city, but judges sided with MLB. In June of last year, San Jose mayor Matt Mahan and four former mayors sent a letter to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred outlining why they believe their city should be a leading candidate for expansion and why its circumstances are unfair. Manfred stated he was simply focused on the Las Vegas situation at the moment. City officials continue to believe they’ll have a team someday. — Gonzalez
Salt Lake City
City population: 199,723
Metro area population: 1,266,191
TV market rank: 29
Most likely nickname: There isn’t really a leading candidate yet, though possibilities abound. This could eventually come down to one of those “name the team” contests and until we are much further down the expansion road, fun speculation over the name will be a way to keep baseball on the radar in Salt Lake City. The traditional name of the minor league club — the Bees — dates back to 1915, but has been changed at various times as teams have come and gone.
Other monikers that have been used include Buzz, Gulls and Stingers. New ideas that have been floated: Pioneers, Bison, Outlaws, Saints and Cutthroats. (The Utah state fish is the cutthroat trout.)
Also, a team would likely follow the path of the NBA’s Jazz by adopting the state name, so Utah Bees would be more likely than an MLB version of the Salt Lake City Bees. A stadium name would probably end up with a corporate name, but calling it The Beehive would be fun.
Most likely stadium location: In terms of mixed-used development, imagine a Salt Lake City version of The Battery project that spurred the Braves’ relocation to the Atlanta suburbs a few years ago. Big League Utah has targeted a site that area developers have long coveted between the city’s downtown and airport, a 100-acre parcel currently tabbed as The Power District. It’s just off I-80 and easily accessible by public transit lines, rail and bus. The highway location would make it a convenient destination throughout the region, especially for those from nearby Park City and other cities like Provo and Ogden. The aesthetics of the site would potentially be unmatched in MLB, as it’s abutted by the Jordan River and a stadium would feature views of the downtown skyline and, beyond that, the Wasatch Mountains.
The case for Salt Lake City: Don’t sleep on Salt Lake City, which has hosted the Olympics once already and is a strong candidate to do so again. The city and the state have built an impressive track record of getting large-scale, community-enhancing projects done with an unusual degree of public and private sector synergy.
Until Big League Utah was launched last year, Salt Lake City wasn’t often mentioned as a possible MLB locale. Since then, because the effort has been so thorough and so many preliminary boxes have already been checked, that once you dig into the specifics, the question becomes more: Why not Salt Lake City?
“We have the fastest-growing state, the youngest state, we have a shovel-ready ballpark site with community support and we have a proven ownership group that has experience and is passionate about the sport of baseball,” said Larry H. Miller Company CEO Steve Starks, who is heading up the expansion charge. “All of those factors make Utah the ideal expansion market.”
What could stop it from landing a team: The sports community in Salt Lake City is strong, as evidenced by attendance and television ratings figures from the Jazz, University of Utah and Brigham Young University. The dedication of those fans would need to outweigh a market size that would be in the lower ranks of MLB. Early polling has been enthusiastic about the prospect of joining MLB. As the process continues, the biggest hurdle may be getting MLB’s decision makers to see Salt Lake City not just as a growing, high-functioning sports market, but a real baseball town. If the Oakland Athletics were to choose Utah as a temporary home, that might go a long way toward fast-tracking that process. –Doolittle
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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