South Carolina Is About to Reprise Its Historic Role for Republicans

Published

9 months ago

February 22, 2024

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For more than four decades, South Carolina has been the decisive contest in the Republican presidential primariesthe state most likely to anoint the GOPs eventual nominee. On Saturday, South Carolina seems poised to play that role again.

Since the state moved to its prominent early position on the GOP presidential-primary calendar in 1980, the candidate who has won there has captured the nomination in every contested race except one. Given Donald Trumps overall lead in the GOP race, a victory for him in South Carolina over Nikki Haley, the states former governor, would likely uphold that streak.

We all underestimate how deeply ingrained the Trump message is in the rank and file of our party, Warren Tompkins, a longtime South Carolinabased GOP strategist and lobbyist, told me. Take the personality out of it: What he stands for, what he says hell do, and what he did as president; hes on the money.

This year, though, there may be a twist in South Carolinas usual role of confirming the eventual GOP winner: Even as the state demonstrates Trumps strength in the primary, it may also spotlight his potential difficulties as a general-election nominee. Like the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina may show that though most Republican voters are ready to renominate Trump, a substantial minority of the GOP coalition has grown disaffected from him. And in a general-election rematch, that could provide a crucial opening for President Joe Biden, despite all of his vulnerabilities, to attract some ordinarily Republican-leaning voters.

Trump is essentially the incumbent leader of the party who is not able to get higher than, say, 65 percent in the primaries, Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, told me.

Local observers say Haley has run a textbook South Carolina campaign, barnstorming the state in a bus, appearing relentlessly on national television, spending heavily on television advertising, and notably intensifying her criticism of Trump as unhinged and diminished. Trump, meanwhile, has breezed through the state as quickly as a snowbird motoring down I-95 from New York to Florida for the winter. Yet he has retained an imposing lead reaching as high as two to one over Haley in the polls.

I think you can argue Haley is running a fantastic campaign in South Carolina, Jordan Ragusa, a political scientist at the College of Charleston and a co-author of a history of the South Carolina primary, told me. But the pool of available voters is just so small that no matter what she does, its going to be hard for her to move the needle.

Read: The GOP has crossed an ominous threshold on foreign policy

Over the past generation, South Carolina has had an extraordinary impact in shaping the outcome of GOP presidential-nomination contests. The state moved near the front of the GOP primary calendar in 1980, when Republicans were just establishing themselves as a competitive force in the state. GOP leaders created the primary, with its unusual scheduling on a Saturday, as a way to generate more attention for the party, which had previously selected its delegates at a convention attended by party insiders.

The other key factor in creating the primary was support from Ronald Reagans presidential campaign, including Lee Atwater, a prominent GOP strategist then based in South Carolina. South Carolina did what Atwater hoped when Reagan won it in a rout, after unexpectedly losing the Iowa caucus to George H. W. Bush.

Reagans victory in South Carolina placed him back on the path for the GOP nomination and cut a mold that has endured, with only one exception, in every contested GOP presidential-primary race through 2016. Each of those races followed the same formula: One candidate won the Iowa caucus, a second candidate won the New Hampshire primary, and then one of those two won South Carolina and eventually captured the nomination. (The exception came in 2012, when a backlash to a debate question about his marriage propelled Newt Gingrich to a decisive South Carolina win over Mitt Romney, who recovered to claim the nomination.)

In 2016, Trumps narrow victory in South Carolina effectively cemented the nomination for him after he had lost Iowa to Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and then recovered to win in New Hampshire. A victory for Trump on Saturday would allow him to equal a feat achieved only by incumbent GOP presidents: sweeping Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Three factors, above all, explain South Carolinas enduring influence in the GOP race. One is that it reflects the overall Republican coalition better than either of the two states that precede it. In Iowa, the Republican electorate leans heavily toward evangelical Christians who prioritize social issues; in New Hampshire, where there are few evangelicals, economic conservatives focused on taxes and spending, as well as a sizable group of libertarian voters, have dominated. South Carolina is the synthesis of both: It has a large evangelical population and a substantial cohort of suburban, business-oriented Republicans outside its three principal population centers of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.

In a lot of ways, the state party here is a microcosm of the national party, Jim Guth, a longtime political scientist at Furman University, in Greenville, told me. We replicate the profile of the national party maybe better than New Hampshire [or] Iowa.

It has been possible for candidates over the years to win Iowa or New Hampshire primarily by mobilizing just one group, such as social conservatives in Iowa and moderate independents in New Hampshire. But because the South Carolina GOP contains so many different power centers, you have to have a broader appeal, Tompkins, who has worked in every GOP presidential primary since Reagan, told me.

The second key factor in South Carolinas importance has been its placement on the GOP calendar. From the outset, in 1980, the primary was designed by its sponsors as a First in the South contest that they hoped would signal to voters across the region which candidate had emerged as the favorite. As more southern states over the years concentrated their primaries on Super Tuesday, in early March, that multiplied the domino effect of winning the state.

Given the demographic alignment between South Carolina and a lot of the southern Super Tuesday states, and the momentum effect, it really made South Carolina pivotal, Ragusa said.

Read: Trump is about to steamroll Nikki Haley

The third dynamic underpinning South Carolinas influence has been its role as a fire wall against insurgent candidates such as John McCain in 2000 and Patrick J. Buchanan in the 1990s. South Carolinas Republican leadership has usually coalesced predominantly behind the candidate with the most support from the national party establishment and then helped power them to victory in the state. That model wavered in 2012, when Gingrich won his upset victory, and even in 2016, when Trump won despite clear splits in the national GOP establishment about his candidacy. But most often, South Carolina has been an empire-strikes-back place where the establishment-backed front-runner in the race snuffs out the last flickers of viable opposition.

All of these historic factors appear virtually certain to benefit Trump this year. Super Tuesday no longer revolves as much around southern states. But it remains a huge landscape: 15 states and American Samoa will all pick a combined 874 Republican delegates on March 5, nearly three-fourths of the total required to win the nomination.

In the limited polling across the Super Tuesday states, Trump now leads, usually commandingly, in all of them. Haley has already announced campaign appearances in Super Tuesday states through next week. But with all of the Super Tuesday states voting just 10 days after South Carolina, it will be virtually impossible for Haley to close the gap in so many places at once without winning her home state or at least significantly exceeding expectations. Like earlier underdogs, she faces a stark equation To change the race anywhere on Super Tuesday, she must change it everywhere through her showing in South Carolina.

Saturdays result could also reconfirm South Carolinas other key historic roles. Trump is now the candidate of most of the GOP establishmenta dynamic reflected in his endorsement by virtually all of the leading Republicans in Haleys home state. Hes also become the contender with the broadest appeal inside the Republican Party. Because Trump is so polarizing for the general public, its difficult to see him in that light. But South Carolina is likely to buttress the indications from Iowa and New Hampshire that Trump, as a quasi-incumbent, now has a broader reach across the Republican Party than Haley does, or, for that matter, than he himself did in 2016. In most South Carolina polls, Trump is now leading her with every major demographic group, except among the independents who plan to participate in the primary.

Yet South Carolina, like Iowa and New Hampshire before it, will also provide important clues about the extent of the remaining resistance to Trump within the Republican coalition.

Haley is likely to perform best among well-educated voters around the population centers of Columbia and Charleston. Haley must run up the score with traditional Reagan Republicans who want to actually nominate a candidate who can win in the general election, Stroman told me. She is going to be absolutely swamped in the MAGA-rich right-wing upstate, and in rural areas across the stateso she needs the suburbs and cities to turn out to hopefully keep her closer than expected.

In New Hampshire, Haley finished closer to Trump than most polls projected, because a large number of independent voters, and even a slice of Democrats, turned out to support her. Shell need a similar dynamic to finish credibly in South Carolina, where she has said her goal is to exceed her 43 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. The better the showing for Haley among independents, and among college-educated voters in the suburbs, the stronger the general-election warning signs for Trump.

Democratic voters could be a wild card on Saturday after relatively few of them turned out for the partys own primary earlier this month. South Carolina does not have party registration, which means that any voter who did not participate in the Democratic primary can vote in the Republican contest. A group called Primary Pivot has launched a campaign to encourage Democrats and independents to swarm the GOP primary to weaken Trump. If Haley exceeds expectations in South Carolina, it will be because, as in New Hampshire, more independents and Democrats turn out for her than pollsters anticipated.

Besting Trump for the nomination may no longer be a realistic goal for Haley if she loses her home state. But, after mostly dodging confrontation with Trump for months, she is now delivering a more cogent and caustic argument against him, and showing a determination to force Republicans to wrestle with the general-election risks they are accepting by renominating him. The biggest question in South Carolina may not be whether Haley can beat Trump, but whether the state provides her more evidence, even in defeat, to make that case.

UK

‘We need help’: Workers say shoplifting is ‘out of control’ as brazen thefts explode

Published

30 mins ago

November 20, 2024

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'We need help': Workers say shoplifting is 'out of control' as brazen thefts explode

A woman casually walks into a convenience store and starts filling a bread crate with goods from one of the aisles.

A shop assistant tries to stop her, but she shrugs him off, undeterred. With the crate now full of items, she leaves without paying.

It is a scenario that is played out day in and day out across Britain, as retailers warn the surge in shoplifting is now “out of control”.

I’m sitting in the security office of a busy city centre shop and I’m watching as a schoolboy walks in and helps himself to a sandwich, stuffing it into his jacket.

Watching with me is shop worker Anton Mavroianu who positions himself by the main entrance waiting for the youngster to leave.

When the boy does leave, Anton demands the item back. Instead of being frozen with fear that he’s been caught, the boy laughs and walks off.

“All we can do is try to stop them,” Anton tells me. “But this is just another day for us.”

A few weeks earlier, when Anton tried to stop a shoplifter who had stolen from the store, the man pulled out a knife and tried to attack him.

This terrifying incident is an example of the very real threat posed to shop workers as they try to stem the tide of brazen thefts.

Shoplifting offences recorded by police in England and Wales have risen to the highest level in 20 years.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) also reports that theft-related losses cost the retail sector millions each year, adding strain to an industry already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and economic uncertainty.

For small businesses, which lack the resources of larger chains, persistent theft can threaten their very survival.

Ricky Dougall owns a chain of convenience stores and says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year.

“Shoplifting is a huge problem and it is what stops us from growing the business.

“People come in and help themselves like they own the place and when you call the police, most of the time, they don’t turn up.”

Mr Dougall says part of the problem is how this type of crime is classified.

Sentencing guidelines for thefts of under £200, so-called “low level shoplifting”, were relaxed in 2016. That is being blamed for the surge in cases.

An exclusive Sky News and Association of Convenience Stores survey shows that 80% of shopkeepers surveyed had an incident of retail crime in the past week.

The poll also found 94% of shopkeepers say that in their experience, shoplifting has got worse over the last year, with 83% not confident that the police will take action against the perpetrators of retail crime on their premises.

Paul Cheema from the Association of Convenience Stores says retailers are looking to Government to support them.

“I would say officials do not give a s*** about us retailers,” he tells me. “The losses are too big and I don’t think we can sustain that anymore.

“I would urge Keir Starmer to come and meet us and see up close the challenges that we are facing.”

Retailers have responded by investing heavily in security measures, from advanced surveillance systems to hiring more security staff.

But these investments come at a cost, often passed down to consumers through higher prices.

I get chatting to Matt Roberts, head of retail in the store I am in. He worries about shoplifting, but he worries about the staff more.

“I would imagine they dread coming to work because they’re always on tenterhooks wondering whether something is going to happen today, whether they are going to have to try and confront someone.

“It’s a horrible feeling. It’s out of control and we need help.”

The government has acknowledged the urgency of the issue. Home Secretary-led discussions with retail associations and law enforcement are underway to craft a comprehensive strategy.

In the King’s Speech, the government outlined details of a Crime and Policing Bill, which promised to “introduce stronger measures to tackle low level shoplifting”, as well as introducing a separate offence for assaulting a shop worker.

UK

Two-thirds of teens living with fear of violence, charity warns

Published

30 mins ago

November 20, 2024

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Two-thirds of teens living with fear of violence, charity warns

Children do not feel safe, a charity has warned, as a survey finds two-thirds of teens in England and Wales have a fear of violence.

The charity, which surveyed 10,000 children aged 13-17, found that 20% of teenagers have been victims of violence in the past 12 months.

“I think what shocked me most is how this is a problem that affects all of our children,” said Jon Yates, CEO of the Youth Endowment Fund.

“We found that two-thirds of all teenage children are afraid. And that fear is pretty real for a lot of them.”

He said it’s a fear so palpable that many teenage children are changing their patterns of behaviour, or have had it influence their daily decisions.

One third of teenage children – 33% – reported avoiding areas, whilst around 27% alter their travel routes or avoid public transport altogether to stay safe.

More worryingly, however, some say the fear of violence has led to mental health challenges, with 22% reporting difficulties sleeping, reduced appetite and concentrating in school.

Weapon carrying is also a concern for the charity, especially among vulnerable groups.

In England and Wales, 5% of all 13-17 year olds reported carrying a weapon in the past year, but that figure jumps to 21% for those suspended from school and 36% for children who have been excluded from school.

But Mr Yates said “shockingly” only 12% of children who repeatedly commit violence get any sort of support.

“That’s madness,” he said.

Jay*, 23, from Birmingham said depending on your environment, sometimes violence is hard to avoid.

“I’ve had friends be shot, I’ve got friends who have been stabbed, I had a friend die last month to be fair,” Jay told Sky News.

He said it is “damaging” because you never really get the opportunity to “heal”. He is now being supported by the charity Project Lifeline, but says before then it was difficult to find any hope.

“If you don’t have hope,” Jay added, “you can’t really get anywhere. It’s about finding that hope.”

Mark Rodney, CEO of Lifeline Project, mentors at-risk young children and said he has learned that “not only the perpetrator carries the knife, the victim sometimes carries the knife”.

“And not only the perpetrator does the killing,” he added. “The victim sometimes does the killing, because that’s where we’re at.”

He said far too many families ask themselves “is my child safe going to school or coming home from school?” and adds the government must “actually start addressing people’s concerns”.

The report also found that in 93% of cases where teenage children repeatedly harm others, adults intervene with punishments such as school discipline or police involvement.

However, only 12% of these children are offered support aimed at addressing the root causes of violence and preventing further harm.

Mr Yates said: “They go to school, they do something violent. They get excluded.”

He added: “We need to be much better at saying, ‘we’re not going to lose that child. We’re going to keep providing support to them. We’re going to keep providing a mentor’.

“Instead, we let them fall through the cracks”.

A government spokesperson said: “Halving knife crime in a decade is a clear mission this government has set out.

“It is vital to protect vulnerable young people who are too often the victims or perpetrators of this crime.”

*names have been changed

Environment

Corporate America is investing in record levels of solar and storage

Published

2 hours ago

November 20, 2024

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Corporate America is investing in record levels of solar and storage

Corporate America is investing in clean energy at record levels, with tech giants taking the top spots for users of solar.

Meta, Google, and Amazon are leading the charge in solar and battery storage adoption, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association’s (SEIA’s) latest “Solar Means Business” report.

Meta continues to hold the title of the top solar user in corporate America, with nearly 5.2 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity installed. Meanwhile, Google leads the way in energy storage, boasting 936 megawatt-hours (MWh) of installed battery capacity. Through the first quarter of 2024, these companies have added the most solar capacity to their electricity portfolios, with major players like General Motors, Toyota, and US Steel also climbing the ranks.

The report reveals that US businesses have installed nearly 40 GW of solar capacity both onsite and offsite through Q1 2024, and corporate storage use now exceeds 1.8 gigawatt-hours (GWh). Even more growth is coming: Companies have over 3 GWh of battery storage under contract that will come online in the next five years.

“Some of the largest industrial and data operations in the world continue turning to solar and storage as a reliable, low-cost way to power their operations,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper.

Technology companies are at the forefront of this shift as data center growth drives skyrocketing electricity demand. Amazon, for example, leads the US with 13.6 GW of solar procurements under contract, while Meta and Google each have nearly 6 GW under contract – pipelines over 10 times larger than the next company in the rankings.

Target remains the US’s leading onsite corporate solar user for the ninth year in a row, with Prologis, Walmart, Amazon, and Blackstone also making the top five. For the first time, the “Solar Means Business” report is also tracking corporate battery energy storage, with Google, Apple, Meta, Target, Walmart, Home Depot, and Kohl’s among the top 10 companies using storage to meet more of their energy needs in real-time.

Looking ahead, both offsite and onsite energy storage are expected to play a bigger role in corporate renewable energy strategies. Medical companies like Kaiser Permanente are already using batteries to power microgrids, making their facilities more resilient to outages.

Carolyn Campbell, Meta’s head of clean and renewable energy, East, highlighted the importance of expanding solar capacity to match the company’s global operations with 100% clean energy: “We’re thrilled to rank number one for corporate solar procurement in SEIA’s report this year, and we continue to find ways to grow the grid to benefit everyone.”

Target’s vice president of property management, Erin Tyler, said of Target’s 20-year-old solar program, “Through our commitment to solar, we’re well on our way to achieving our corporate goal of sourcing 100% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.”

The “Solar Means Business” report also looks at the policies driving corporate America’s adoption of solar. Many companies are taking advantage of the Inflation Reduction Act’s long-term clean energy incentives. To further accelerate their renewable energy investments, businesses are calling for improvements in interconnection processes, new community solar legislation, and simpler tax credit monetization.

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