South Carolina Is About to Reprise Its Historic Role for Republicans

Published

2 years ago

February 22, 2024

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For more than four decades, South Carolina has been the decisive contest in the Republican presidential primariesthe state most likely to anoint the GOPs eventual nominee. On Saturday, South Carolina seems poised to play that role again.

Since the state moved to its prominent early position on the GOP presidential-primary calendar in 1980, the candidate who has won there has captured the nomination in every contested race except one. Given Donald Trumps overall lead in the GOP race, a victory for him in South Carolina over Nikki Haley, the states former governor, would likely uphold that streak.

We all underestimate how deeply ingrained the Trump message is in the rank and file of our party, Warren Tompkins, a longtime South Carolinabased GOP strategist and lobbyist, told me. Take the personality out of it: What he stands for, what he says hell do, and what he did as president; hes on the money.

This year, though, there may be a twist in South Carolinas usual role of confirming the eventual GOP winner: Even as the state demonstrates Trumps strength in the primary, it may also spotlight his potential difficulties as a general-election nominee. Like the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina may show that though most Republican voters are ready to renominate Trump, a substantial minority of the GOP coalition has grown disaffected from him. And in a general-election rematch, that could provide a crucial opening for President Joe Biden, despite all of his vulnerabilities, to attract some ordinarily Republican-leaning voters.

Trump is essentially the incumbent leader of the party who is not able to get higher than, say, 65 percent in the primaries, Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, told me.

Local observers say Haley has run a textbook South Carolina campaign, barnstorming the state in a bus, appearing relentlessly on national television, spending heavily on television advertising, and notably intensifying her criticism of Trump as unhinged and diminished. Trump, meanwhile, has breezed through the state as quickly as a snowbird motoring down I-95 from New York to Florida for the winter. Yet he has retained an imposing lead reaching as high as two to one over Haley in the polls.

I think you can argue Haley is running a fantastic campaign in South Carolina, Jordan Ragusa, a political scientist at the College of Charleston and a co-author of a history of the South Carolina primary, told me. But the pool of available voters is just so small that no matter what she does, its going to be hard for her to move the needle.

Read: The GOP has crossed an ominous threshold on foreign policy

Over the past generation, South Carolina has had an extraordinary impact in shaping the outcome of GOP presidential-nomination contests. The state moved near the front of the GOP primary calendar in 1980, when Republicans were just establishing themselves as a competitive force in the state. GOP leaders created the primary, with its unusual scheduling on a Saturday, as a way to generate more attention for the party, which had previously selected its delegates at a convention attended by party insiders.

The other key factor in creating the primary was support from Ronald Reagans presidential campaign, including Lee Atwater, a prominent GOP strategist then based in South Carolina. South Carolina did what Atwater hoped when Reagan won it in a rout, after unexpectedly losing the Iowa caucus to George H. W. Bush.

Reagans victory in South Carolina placed him back on the path for the GOP nomination and cut a mold that has endured, with only one exception, in every contested GOP presidential-primary race through 2016. Each of those races followed the same formula: One candidate won the Iowa caucus, a second candidate won the New Hampshire primary, and then one of those two won South Carolina and eventually captured the nomination. (The exception came in 2012, when a backlash to a debate question about his marriage propelled Newt Gingrich to a decisive South Carolina win over Mitt Romney, who recovered to claim the nomination.)

In 2016, Trumps narrow victory in South Carolina effectively cemented the nomination for him after he had lost Iowa to Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and then recovered to win in New Hampshire. A victory for Trump on Saturday would allow him to equal a feat achieved only by incumbent GOP presidents: sweeping Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Three factors, above all, explain South Carolinas enduring influence in the GOP race. One is that it reflects the overall Republican coalition better than either of the two states that precede it. In Iowa, the Republican electorate leans heavily toward evangelical Christians who prioritize social issues; in New Hampshire, where there are few evangelicals, economic conservatives focused on taxes and spending, as well as a sizable group of libertarian voters, have dominated. South Carolina is the synthesis of both: It has a large evangelical population and a substantial cohort of suburban, business-oriented Republicans outside its three principal population centers of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.

In a lot of ways, the state party here is a microcosm of the national party, Jim Guth, a longtime political scientist at Furman University, in Greenville, told me. We replicate the profile of the national party maybe better than New Hampshire [or] Iowa.

It has been possible for candidates over the years to win Iowa or New Hampshire primarily by mobilizing just one group, such as social conservatives in Iowa and moderate independents in New Hampshire. But because the South Carolina GOP contains so many different power centers, you have to have a broader appeal, Tompkins, who has worked in every GOP presidential primary since Reagan, told me.

The second key factor in South Carolinas importance has been its placement on the GOP calendar. From the outset, in 1980, the primary was designed by its sponsors as a First in the South contest that they hoped would signal to voters across the region which candidate had emerged as the favorite. As more southern states over the years concentrated their primaries on Super Tuesday, in early March, that multiplied the domino effect of winning the state.

Given the demographic alignment between South Carolina and a lot of the southern Super Tuesday states, and the momentum effect, it really made South Carolina pivotal, Ragusa said.

Read: Trump is about to steamroll Nikki Haley

The third dynamic underpinning South Carolinas influence has been its role as a fire wall against insurgent candidates such as John McCain in 2000 and Patrick J. Buchanan in the 1990s. South Carolinas Republican leadership has usually coalesced predominantly behind the candidate with the most support from the national party establishment and then helped power them to victory in the state. That model wavered in 2012, when Gingrich won his upset victory, and even in 2016, when Trump won despite clear splits in the national GOP establishment about his candidacy. But most often, South Carolina has been an empire-strikes-back place where the establishment-backed front-runner in the race snuffs out the last flickers of viable opposition.

All of these historic factors appear virtually certain to benefit Trump this year. Super Tuesday no longer revolves as much around southern states. But it remains a huge landscape: 15 states and American Samoa will all pick a combined 874 Republican delegates on March 5, nearly three-fourths of the total required to win the nomination.

In the limited polling across the Super Tuesday states, Trump now leads, usually commandingly, in all of them. Haley has already announced campaign appearances in Super Tuesday states through next week. But with all of the Super Tuesday states voting just 10 days after South Carolina, it will be virtually impossible for Haley to close the gap in so many places at once without winning her home state or at least significantly exceeding expectations. Like earlier underdogs, she faces a stark equation To change the race anywhere on Super Tuesday, she must change it everywhere through her showing in South Carolina.

Saturdays result could also reconfirm South Carolinas other key historic roles. Trump is now the candidate of most of the GOP establishmenta dynamic reflected in his endorsement by virtually all of the leading Republicans in Haleys home state. Hes also become the contender with the broadest appeal inside the Republican Party. Because Trump is so polarizing for the general public, its difficult to see him in that light. But South Carolina is likely to buttress the indications from Iowa and New Hampshire that Trump, as a quasi-incumbent, now has a broader reach across the Republican Party than Haley does, or, for that matter, than he himself did in 2016. In most South Carolina polls, Trump is now leading her with every major demographic group, except among the independents who plan to participate in the primary.

Yet South Carolina, like Iowa and New Hampshire before it, will also provide important clues about the extent of the remaining resistance to Trump within the Republican coalition.

Haley is likely to perform best among well-educated voters around the population centers of Columbia and Charleston. Haley must run up the score with traditional Reagan Republicans who want to actually nominate a candidate who can win in the general election, Stroman told me. She is going to be absolutely swamped in the MAGA-rich right-wing upstate, and in rural areas across the stateso she needs the suburbs and cities to turn out to hopefully keep her closer than expected.

In New Hampshire, Haley finished closer to Trump than most polls projected, because a large number of independent voters, and even a slice of Democrats, turned out to support her. Shell need a similar dynamic to finish credibly in South Carolina, where she has said her goal is to exceed her 43 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. The better the showing for Haley among independents, and among college-educated voters in the suburbs, the stronger the general-election warning signs for Trump.

Democratic voters could be a wild card on Saturday after relatively few of them turned out for the partys own primary earlier this month. South Carolina does not have party registration, which means that any voter who did not participate in the Democratic primary can vote in the Republican contest. A group called Primary Pivot has launched a campaign to encourage Democrats and independents to swarm the GOP primary to weaken Trump. If Haley exceeds expectations in South Carolina, it will be because, as in New Hampshire, more independents and Democrats turn out for her than pollsters anticipated.

Besting Trump for the nomination may no longer be a realistic goal for Haley if she loses her home state. But, after mostly dodging confrontation with Trump for months, she is now delivering a more cogent and caustic argument against him, and showing a determination to force Republicans to wrestle with the general-election risks they are accepting by renominating him. The biggest question in South Carolina may not be whether Haley can beat Trump, but whether the state provides her more evidence, even in defeat, to make that case.

Technology

Americans are heating their homes with bitcoin this winter

Published

2 hours ago

November 16, 2025

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Americans are heating their homes with bitcoin this winter

As winter’s chill settles in across the U.S., and electricity bills become a bigger budgeting issue, most Americans will rely on their usual sources of warmth, such as home heating oil, natural gas, and electric furnaces. But in a few cases, crypto is generating the heat, and if some of the nascent crypto heat industry’s proponents are correct, someday its use as a source within homes and buildings will be much more widespread.

Let’s start with the basics: the computing power of crypto mining generates a lot of heat, most which just ends up vented into the air. According to digital assets brokerage, K33, the bitcoin mining industry generates about 100 TWh of heat annually — enough to heat all of Finland. This energy waste within a very energy-intense industry is leading entrepreneurs to look for ways to repurpose the heat for homes, offices, or other locations, especially in colder weather months.

During a frigid snap earlier this year, The New York Times reviewed HeatTrio, a $900 space heater that also doubles as a bitcoin mining rig. Others use the heat from their own in-home cryptocurrency mining to spread warmth throughout their house.

“I’ve seen bitcoin rigs running quietly in attics, with the heat they generate rerouted through the home’s ventilation system to offset heating costs. It’s a clever use of what would otherwise be wasted energy,” said Jill Ford, CEO of Bitford Digital, a sustainable bitcoin mining company based in Dallas. “Using the heat is another example of how crypto miners can be energy allies if you apply some creativity to their potential,” Ford said.

It’s not necessarily going to save someone money on their electric bill — the economics will vary greatly from place to place and person to person, based on factors including local electricity rates and how fast a mining machine is — but the approach might make money to offset heating costs.

“Same price as heating the house, but the perk is that you are mining bitcoin,” Ford said.

A single mining machine — even an older model — is sufficient. Solo miners can join mining pools to share computing power and receive proportional payouts, making returns more predictable and changing the economic equation.

“The concept of using crypto mining or GPU compute to heat homes is clever in theory because almost all the energy consumed by computation is released as heat,” said Andrew Sobko, founder of Argentum AI, which is creating a marketplace for the sharing of computing power. But he added that the concept makes the most sense in larger settings, particularly in colder climates or high-density buildings, such as data centers, where compute heat shows real promise as a form of industrial-scale heat recapture.

To make it work — it’s not like you can transport the heat somewhere by truck or train — you have to identity where the computing heat is needed and route it to that place, such as co-locating GPUs in environments from industrial parks to residential buildings.

“We’re working with partners who are already redirecting compute heat into building heating systems and even agricultural greenhouse warming. That’s where the economics and environmental benefits make real sense,” Sobko said. “Instead of trying to move the heat physically, you move the compute closer to where that heat provides value,” he added.

Why skeptics say crypto home heating won’t work

There are plenty of skeptics.

Derek Mohr, clinical associate professor at the University of Rochester Simon School of Business, does not think the future of home heating lies in crypto and says even industrial crypto is problematic.

Bitcoin mining is so specialized now that a home computer, or even network of home computers, would have almost zero chance of being helpful in mining a block of bitcoin, according to Mohr, with mining farms use of specialized chips that are created to mine bitcoin much faster than a home computer.

“While bitcoin mining at home — and in networks of home computers — was a thing that had small success 10 years ago, it no longer is,” Mohr said.

“The bitcoin heat devices I have seen appear to be simple space heaters that use your own electricity to heat the room … which is not an efficient way to heat a house,” he said. “Yes, bitcoin mining generates a lot of heat, but the only way to get that to your house is to use your own electricity,” Mohr said.

He added that while running your computer non-stop would generate heat, it has a very low probability of successfully mining a bitcoin block.

“In my opinion, this is not a real opportunity that will work. Instead it is taking advantage of things people have heard of — excess heat from bitcoin mining and profits from mining — and is giving false hope that there is a way for an individual to benefit from this,” Mohr said.

But some experts say more widespread use of plug-and-play, free-standing mining rigs, might make the concept viable in more locations over time. In the least, they say it is worth studying the dual use economic and environmental benefits based on the underlying fact that crypto mining generates significant heat as a byproduct of the computer processing.

“How can we capture the excess heat from the operation to power something else? That could range from heating a home to warming water, even in a swimming pool. As a result, your operating efficiency is higher on your power consumption,” said Nikki Morris, the executive director of the Texas Christian University Ralph Lowe Energy Institute.

She says the concept of crypto heating is still in its earliest stages, and most people don’t yet understand how it works or what the broader implications could be. “That’s part of what makes it so interesting. At Texas Christian University, we see opportunities to help people build both the vocabulary and the business use feasibility with industry partners,” Morris said.

Because crypto mining produces a digital asset that can be traded, it introduces a new source of revenue from power consumption, and the power source could be anything from the grid to natural gas to solar to wind or battery generation, according to Morris. She cited charging an electric vehicle at mixed-use buildings or apartment complexes as an example.

“Picture a similar scenario where an apartment complex’s crypto mining setup produces both digital currency and usable heat energy. That opens the door to distributed energy innovation to a broader stakeholder base, an approach that could complement existing heating systems and renewable generation strategies,” Morris said.

There are many questions to explore, including efficiency at different scales, integration with other energy sources, regulatory considerations, and overall environmental impact, “but as these technologies evolve, it’s worth viewing crypto heating not just as a curiosity, but as a small window into how digital and physical energy systems might increasingly converge in the future,” Morris said.

Testing bitcoin heat in the real world

The crypto-heated future may be unfolding in the town of Challis, Idaho, where Cade Peterson’s company, Softwarm, is repurposing bitcoin heat to ward off the winter.

Several shops and businesses in town are experimenting with Softwarm’s rigs to mine and heat. At TC Car, Truck and RV Wash, Peterson says, the owner was spending $25 a day to heat his wash bays to melt snow and warm up the water.

“Traditional heaters would consume energy with no returns. They installed bitcoin miners and it produces more money in bitcoin than it costs to run,” Peterson said. Meanwhile, an industrial concrete company is offsetting its $1,000 a month bill to heat its 2,500-gallon water tank by heating it with bitcoin.

Peterson has heated his own home for two-and-a-half years using bitcoin mining equipment and believes that heat will power almost everything in the future. “You will go to Home Depot in a few years and buy a water heater with a data port on it and your water will be heated with bitcoin,” Peterson said.

Sports

Congress wants MLB answers on betting scandal

Published

3 hours ago

November 16, 2025

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Congress wants MLB answers on betting scandal

David PurdumNov 14, 2025, 03:42 PM ET
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- Joined ESPN in 2014
- Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008

Members of Congress sent a letter to Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred on Friday, expressing concern over a “new integrity crisis” facing American sports and asking for answers about the alleged betting scheme that led to the recent indictments of two Cleveland Guardians pitchers.

Members of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, which oversees professional sports, called the allegations against Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz “markedly more serious” than other recent betting incidents in baseball. Federal prosecutors on Sunday indicted Clase and Ortiz and accused them of rigging individual pitches over multiple games so gambling associates could profit on wagers.

Sens. Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell, who lead the committee, questioned why Clase’s alleged actions, which began in May 2023, were not discovered for two years. They contrasted the case with that of former major leaguer Tucupita Marcano, who was banned in 2024 for betting on baseball.

“How did MLB catch Marcano and ban him for life but failed to notice Clase allegedly rigging pitches for two years?” the letter states. “The integrity of the game is paramount. MLB has every interest in ensuring baseball is free from influence and manipulation. … But in light of these recent developments, MLB must clearly demonstrate how it is meeting its responsibility to safeguard America’s pastime.”

The committee members asked when and how MLB was made aware of the alleged activity by Clase and Ortiz and for documentation detailing the league’s betting policies and details of any other betting-related investigations since Jan. 1, 2020. The committee requested the information and documentation by Dec. 5.

ESPN has reached out to MLB for comment. On Monday, MLB announced that its sportsbook partners had agreed to place a $200 limit on all bets involving individual pitches and prohibit such wagers from being included in parlays. The measures were taken to reduce the amount that could be won from pitch-level bets and therefore decrease the incentive of manipulation.

The same committee sent a letter to the NBA in October, asking for information related to that league’s handling of the alleged betting scandal that led to the indictments of Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, former player and coach Damon Jones and Miami Heat veteran guard Terry Rozier.

“An isolated incident of game rigging might be dismissed as an aberration, but the emergence of manipulation across multiple leagues suggests a deeper, systemic vulnerability,” the committee wrote. “These developments warrant thorough scrutiny by Congress before misconduct issues become more widespread.”

Sports

Hernandez has surgery after Dodgers’ title run

Published

3 hours ago

November 16, 2025

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Hernandez has surgery after Dodgers' title run

Nov 15, 2025, 02:39 PM ET

Free agent utility man Enrique Hernandez had left elbow surgery Friday for an injury he played through during the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ World Series-winning run.

Hernandez posted about the surgery on Instagram, saying he had played through the injury since May and that it would keep him from playing for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic next year.

He missed more than a month on the injured list during the season due to his elbow but returned in August.

Hernandez, 34, batted .203 with 10 home runs and 35 RBIs in 92 games during the regular season before posting a .250 average with one home run and seven RBIs in the playoffs as the Dodgers won a second straight title.