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For more than four decades, South Carolina has been the decisive contest in the Republican presidential primariesthe state most likely to anoint the GOPs eventual nominee. On Saturday, South Carolina seems poised to play that role again.

Since the state moved to its prominent early position on the GOP presidential-primary calendar in 1980, the candidate who has won there has captured the nomination in every contested race except one. Given Donald Trumps overall lead in the GOP race, a victory for him in South Carolina over Nikki Haley, the states former governor, would likely uphold that streak.

We all underestimate how deeply ingrained the Trump message is in the rank and file of our party, Warren Tompkins, a longtime South Carolinabased GOP strategist and lobbyist, told me. Take the personality out of it: What he stands for, what he says hell do, and what he did as president; hes on the money.

This year, though, there may be a twist in South Carolinas usual role of confirming the eventual GOP winner: Even as the state demonstrates Trumps strength in the primary, it may also spotlight his potential difficulties as a general-election nominee. Like the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina may show that though most Republican voters are ready to renominate Trump, a substantial minority of the GOP coalition has grown disaffected from him. And in a general-election rematch, that could provide a crucial opening for President Joe Biden, despite all of his vulnerabilities, to attract some ordinarily Republican-leaning voters.

Trump is essentially the incumbent leader of the party who is not able to get higher than, say, 65 percent in the primaries, Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, told me.

Local observers say Haley has run a textbook South Carolina campaign, barnstorming the state in a bus, appearing relentlessly on national television, spending heavily on television advertising, and notably intensifying her criticism of Trump as unhinged and diminished. Trump, meanwhile, has breezed through the state as quickly as a snowbird motoring down I-95 from New York to Florida for the winter. Yet he has retained an imposing lead reaching as high as two to one over Haley in the polls.

I think you can argue Haley is running a fantastic campaign in South Carolina, Jordan Ragusa, a political scientist at the College of Charleston and a co-author of a history of the South Carolina primary, told me. But the pool of available voters is just so small that no matter what she does, its going to be hard for her to move the needle.

Read: The GOP has crossed an ominous threshold on foreign policy

Over the past generation, South Carolina has had an extraordinary impact in shaping the outcome of GOP presidential-nomination contests. The state moved near the front of the GOP primary calendar in 1980, when Republicans were just establishing themselves as a competitive force in the state. GOP leaders created the primary, with its unusual scheduling on a Saturday, as a way to generate more attention for the party, which had previously selected its delegates at a convention attended by party insiders.

The other key factor in creating the primary was support from Ronald Reagans presidential campaign, including Lee Atwater, a prominent GOP strategist then based in South Carolina. South Carolina did what Atwater hoped when Reagan won it in a rout, after unexpectedly losing the Iowa caucus to George H. W. Bush.

Reagans victory in South Carolina placed him back on the path for the GOP nomination and cut a mold that has endured, with only one exception, in every contested GOP presidential-primary race through 2016. Each of those races followed the same formula: One candidate won the Iowa caucus, a second candidate won the New Hampshire primary, and then one of those two won South Carolina and eventually captured the nomination. (The exception came in 2012, when a backlash to a debate question about his marriage propelled Newt Gingrich to a decisive South Carolina win over Mitt Romney, who recovered to claim the nomination.)

In 2016, Trumps narrow victory in South Carolina effectively cemented the nomination for him after he had lost Iowa to Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and then recovered to win in New Hampshire. A victory for Trump on Saturday would allow him to equal a feat achieved only by incumbent GOP presidents: sweeping Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Three factors, above all, explain South Carolinas enduring influence in the GOP race. One is that it reflects the overall Republican coalition better than either of the two states that precede it. In Iowa, the Republican electorate leans heavily toward evangelical Christians who prioritize social issues; in New Hampshire, where there are few evangelicals, economic conservatives focused on taxes and spending, as well as a sizable group of libertarian voters, have dominated. South Carolina is the synthesis of both: It has a large evangelical population and a substantial cohort of suburban, business-oriented Republicans outside its three principal population centers of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.

In a lot of ways, the state party here is a microcosm of the national party, Jim Guth, a longtime political scientist at Furman University, in Greenville, told me. We replicate the profile of the national party maybe better than New Hampshire [or] Iowa.

It has been possible for candidates over the years to win Iowa or New Hampshire primarily by mobilizing just one group, such as social conservatives in Iowa and moderate independents in New Hampshire. But because the South Carolina GOP contains so many different power centers, you have to have a broader appeal, Tompkins, who has worked in every GOP presidential primary since Reagan, told me.

The second key factor in South Carolinas importance has been its placement on the GOP calendar. From the outset, in 1980, the primary was designed by its sponsors as a First in the South contest that they hoped would signal to voters across the region which candidate had emerged as the favorite. As more southern states over the years concentrated their primaries on Super Tuesday, in early March, that multiplied the domino effect of winning the state.

Given the demographic alignment between South Carolina and a lot of the southern Super Tuesday states, and the momentum effect, it really made South Carolina pivotal, Ragusa said.

Read: Trump is about to steamroll Nikki Haley

The third dynamic underpinning South Carolinas influence has been its role as a fire wall against insurgent candidates such as John McCain in 2000 and Patrick J. Buchanan in the 1990s. South Carolinas Republican leadership has usually coalesced predominantly behind the candidate with the most support from the national party establishment and then helped power them to victory in the state. That model wavered in 2012, when Gingrich won his upset victory, and even in 2016, when Trump won despite clear splits in the national GOP establishment about his candidacy. But most often, South Carolina has been an empire-strikes-back place where the establishment-backed front-runner in the race snuffs out the last flickers of viable opposition.

All of these historic factors appear virtually certain to benefit Trump this year. Super Tuesday no longer revolves as much around southern states. But it remains a huge landscape: 15 states and American Samoa will all pick a combined 874 Republican delegates on March 5, nearly three-fourths of the total required to win the nomination.

In the limited polling across the Super Tuesday states, Trump now leads, usually commandingly, in all of them. Haley has already announced campaign appearances in Super Tuesday states through next week. But with all of the Super Tuesday states voting just 10 days after South Carolina, it will be virtually impossible for Haley to close the gap in so many places at once without winning her home state or at least significantly exceeding expectations. Like earlier underdogs, she faces a stark equation To change the race anywhere on Super Tuesday, she must change it everywhere through her showing in South Carolina.

Saturdays result could also reconfirm South Carolinas other key historic roles. Trump is now the candidate of most of the GOP establishmenta dynamic reflected in his endorsement by virtually all of the leading Republicans in Haleys home state. Hes also become the contender with the broadest appeal inside the Republican Party. Because Trump is so polarizing for the general public, its difficult to see him in that light. But South Carolina is likely to buttress the indications from Iowa and New Hampshire that Trump, as a quasi-incumbent, now has a broader reach across the Republican Party than Haley does, or, for that matter, than he himself did in 2016. In most South Carolina polls, Trump is now leading her with every major demographic group, except among the independents who plan to participate in the primary.

Yet South Carolina, like Iowa and New Hampshire before it, will also provide important clues about the extent of the remaining resistance to Trump within the Republican coalition.

Haley is likely to perform best among well-educated voters around the population centers of Columbia and Charleston. Haley must run up the score with traditional Reagan Republicans who want to actually nominate a candidate who can win in the general election, Stroman told me. She is going to be absolutely swamped in the MAGA-rich right-wing upstate, and in rural areas across the stateso she needs the suburbs and cities to turn out to hopefully keep her closer than expected.

In New Hampshire, Haley finished closer to Trump than most polls projected, because a large number of independent voters, and even a slice of Democrats, turned out to support her. Shell need a similar dynamic to finish credibly in South Carolina, where she has said her goal is to exceed her 43 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. The better the showing for Haley among independents, and among college-educated voters in the suburbs, the stronger the general-election warning signs for Trump.

Democratic voters could be a wild card on Saturday after relatively few of them turned out for the partys own primary earlier this month. South Carolina does not have party registration, which means that any voter who did not participate in the Democratic primary can vote in the Republican contest. A group called Primary Pivot has launched a campaign to encourage Democrats and independents to swarm the GOP primary to weaken Trump. If Haley exceeds expectations in South Carolina, it will be because, as in New Hampshire, more independents and Democrats turn out for her than pollsters anticipated.

Besting Trump for the nomination may no longer be a realistic goal for Haley if she loses her home state. But, after mostly dodging confrontation with Trump for months, she is now delivering a more cogent and caustic argument against him, and showing a determination to force Republicans to wrestle with the general-election risks they are accepting by renominating him. The biggest question in South Carolina may not be whether Haley can beat Trump, but whether the state provides her more evidence, even in defeat, to make that case.

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Politics

Crypto investor charged with kidnapping, torturing an Italian for passwords

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Crypto investor charged with kidnapping, torturing an Italian for passwords

Crypto investor charged with kidnapping, torturing an Italian for passwords

A Manhattan crypto investor is facing serious charges after allegedly kidnapping and torturing an Italian man in a disturbing bid to extract access to digital assets.

John Woeltz, 37, was arraigned on Saturday in Manhattan criminal court following his arrest on Friday. He stands accused of holding a 28-year-old Italian man captive for weeks inside a luxury townhouse in Soho, reportedly rented for $30,000 per month.

According to police reports cited by The New York Times, the victim arrived in the US on May 6 and was allegedly abducted by Woeltz and an accomplice.

The attackers are said to have stolen the man’s passport and electronic devices before demanding the password to his Bitcoin (BTC) wallet. When he refused, the suspects allegedly subjected him to prolonged physical abuse.

Crypto investor charged with kidnapping, torturing an Italian for passwords
Source: Mario Nawfal

Related: Violent crypto robberies on the rise: Six attacks that targeted investors

Crypto victim beaten, electroshocked

The victim described being beaten, shocked with electricity, assaulted with a firearm and even dangled from the upper floors of the five-story building.

He also told police that Woeltz used a saw to cut his leg and forced him to smoke crack cocaine. Threats were also reportedly made against his family.

Photographic evidence found inside the property, including Polaroids, appears to support claims of sustained abuse. The victim managed to escape on Friday and alert authorities, leading to Woeltz’s arrest.

Woeltz was charged with four felony counts, including kidnapping for ransom, and entered a plea of not guilty. Judge Eric Schumacher ordered him to be held without bail. He is expected back in court on May 28.

A 24-year-old woman was also taken into custody on Friday in connection with the incident. However, she was seen walking freely in New York the next day, and no charges against her were found in the court’s online database.

Authorities have yet to clarify the relationship between the suspect and the victim or whether any cryptocurrency was ultimately stolen.

Related: Crypto crime goes industrial as gangs launch coins, launder billions — UN

Crypto executives turn to bodyguards

Executives and investors in the crypto industry are increasingly seeking personal security services as kidnapping and ransom cases surge, especially in France.

On May 18, Amsterdam-based private firm Infinite Risks International reported a rise in requests for bodyguards and long-term protection contracts from high-profile figures in the space.

French authorities have responded by introducing enhanced protections for crypto entrepreneurs and their families, including security briefings and priority access to police assistance.

This comes amid a recent surge in kidnappings and ransom attempts. David Balland, the co-founder of hardware wallet company Ledger, was kidnapped in January 2025 and held for ransom for several days before being rescued by French police.

In May 2024, the father of an unnamed crypto entrepreneur was freed from a ransom attempt after French law enforcement officials raided the location in a Paris suburb where the individual was being held hostage by organized criminals.

Magazine: Bitcoiner sex trap extortion? BTS firm’s blockchain disaster: Asia Express

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Gail’s backer plots rare move with bid for steak chain Flat Iron

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Gail's backer plots rare move with bid for steak chain Flat Iron

A backer of Gail’s bakeries is in advanced talks to acquire Flat Iron, one of Britain’s fastest-growing steak restaurant chains.

Sky News has learnt that McWin Capital Partners, which specialises in investments across the “food ecosystem”, has teamed up with TriSpan, another private equity investor, to buy a large stake in Flat Iron.

Restaurant industry sources said McWin would probably take the largest economic interest in Flat Iron if the deal completes.

They added that the two buyers were in exclusive discussions, with a deal possible in approximately a month’s time.

The valuation attached to Flat Iron was unclear on Sunday.

Flat Iron launched in 2012 in London’s Shoreditch and now has roughly 20 sites open.

The chain is solidly profitable, with its latest accounts showing underlying profits of £5.7m in the year to the end of August.

It already has private equity backing in the form of Piper, a leading investor in consumer brands, which injected £10m into the business in 2017.

Flat Iron was founded by Charlie Carroll, who retains an interest in it, but the company is now run by former Byron restaurant boss Tom Byng.

Houlihan Lokey, the investment bank, has been advising Flat Iron on the process.

McWin has reportedly been in talks to take full control of Gail’s while TriSpan’s portfolio has included restaurant operators such as the Vietnamese chain Pho and Rosa’s, a Thai food chain.

A spokesman for McWin declined to comment.

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US

The anniversary of George Floyd’s murder is a reminder of America’s racial divides

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The anniversary of George Floyd's murder is a reminder of America's racial divides

In Minneapolis, the spot where George Floyd was murdered has been turned into a mural.

His face is depicted in street art on a pavement covered in flowers, rosaries, and other trinkets left by people who have come to pay their respects in the last five years.

His final moments, struggling for breath with white police officer Derek Chauvin’s knee on his neck, were captured in a viral video that provoked anger, upset, and outrage.

Derek Chauvin kneeling on George Floyd's neck
Image:
Derek Chauvin kneeling on George Floyd’s neck

In Minneapolis and other parts of America, there were protests that at points boiled over into unrest.

The events to mark the fifth anniversary of his death took on a very different tone – one of celebration and joy.

Behind a wooden statue of a clenched fist on one end of a junction now renamed George Perry Floyd Square, people gathered in the morning.

There was a moment of prayer before a brass band began to play and the group marched, while singing and chanting.

George Perry Floyd Square, a makeshift memorial area
Image:
George Perry Floyd Square, a makeshift memorial area

‘It made us want to fight harder’

Among those gathered in front of a makeshift stage built in the square were two of Floyd’s family members – his cousin Paris and aunt Mahalia.

To them, the man whose death sparked a racial reckoning in America and further afield, was simply “Perry,” a larger-than-life figure whose presence is missed at family gatherings.

Speaking to me while the speakers behind them thumped and people danced, they didn’t just reflect with sadness though.

There was also pride at a legacy they felt has led to change.

“It made us want to fight harder,” said Mahalia, “and it’s a feeling you cannot explain. When the whole world just stood up.”

George Floyd's aunt Mahalia and cousin Paris
Image:
George Floyd’s aunt Mahalia and cousin Paris

Referring to Chauvin’s eventual murder charge, Paris added: “I think that from here on out, at least officers know that you’re not going to slide through the cracks. Our voices are heard more.”

The tapestry of items outside the Cup Foods convenience store, now renamed Unity Foods, is not the only makeshift memorial in the area.

A short walk away is the “Say Their Names” cemetery, an art installation honouring black people killed by the police.

Meeting me there later in the day, activist Nikema Levy says the installation and George Floyd Square are called “sacred spaces” in the community.

As someone who took to the streets at the time of Floyd’s death and a community organiser for years before that, she’s constantly stopped by people who want to speak to her.

Activist Nikema Levy speaking to Sky News
Image:
Activist Nikema Levy speaking to Sky News

‘White supremacy on steroids’

Once we do manage to speak, Levy reminds me of a wider political picture. One that goes beyond Minneapolis and is a fraught one.

In the week of the anniversary, the US Department of Justice rolled back investigations into some of the largest police forces in the country, including in Minneapolis – a move she calls “diabolical.”

“That type of cruelty is what we have seen since Donald Trump took office on January 20th of this year,” she continued.

“From my perspective, that is white supremacy on steroids. And it should come as no surprise that he would take these types of steps, because these are the things that he talked about on the campaign trail.”

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Has US changed five years after George Floyd’s death?

‘True healing has never taken place’

Trump has argued his policing reforms will help make America’s communities safer.

Even on a day of optimism, with a community coming together, Levy’s words in front of headstones bearing the names of black people who have died at the hands of the police are a reminder of how deep the racial divides in America still are – a sentiment she leaves me with.

“From the days of slavery and Jim Crow in this country, we’ve just had the perception of healing, but true healing has never taken place,” she says.

“So the aftermath of George Floyd is yet another example of what we already know.”

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