Rishi Sunak is failing to hold together the voting coalition that delivered Boris Johnson a decisive victory in the 2019 general election, according to The Voters Panel on Sky News – launched today.
A profound unhappiness with the state of the country and exhaustion at years of Tory chaos means 2019 Tory voters will flock to at least four rival parties or stay at home at the next election.
Some describe themselves as swing voters, while others say they have backed the Tories all their lives, and this is the group Conservative headquarters and campaign chief Isaac Levido believes is key to the next election.
We found just over a fifth of Tory voters will switch directly to Labour and there is a grasp of what Labour stands for among participants in The Voters Panel, the Sky News-YouGov digital community group launched today reveals.
However, the depth of despair in the governing party means the relationship between the party and many voters has shattered and they are looking for a new home.
For the next two weeks, including through the budget next Wednesday, Sky News will be regularly interrogating The Voters Panel – an online group of at least 33 people from all corners of Great Britain.
Of the 33 submitting answers so far, nine say they will likely stick with the Conservatives, seven will go to Labour, five to Reform, two to the Lib Dems and one to Green.
Eight say they aren’t sure, although three of these rule out voting Conservative. This echoes the latest polls.
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The last YouGov voting poll suggested of those who voted Tory in 2019, 33% would stick with the party, 20% would switch to Reform, 13% to Labour, 3% to Lib Dem and 1% would go to the Green Party.
Some 29% say they don’t know or would not vote. This suggests that The Voters Panel looks very reflective of the national picture and will be used in the coming days to dig much deeper into voters’ views.
The headlines, drawn from dozens of videos and written exercises by the panel of 2019 Tory voters since Friday, include:
• A despair at the state of public services. Katrin, who will vote anyone but Tory next time, says schools are “struggling”, the NHS is “underfunded” and needs a cash injection and the economy is “failing”.
Helen, who is unsure where to take her vote now, says: “I am quite worried about the state of the country at the moment. It’s not just me that I need to think about, I’ve also got two young children.”
Michael, who will stick with the Tories, says: “The government doesn’t seem willing to back down to the doctors to give them a decent pay rise.”
• Concern about the cost of living isn’t matched by demands for tax cuts. Several of The Voters Panel have brought up the cost of living, and the pressures this brings, although there is an appreciation this is in part the consequence of COVID and the war in Ukraine – both out of the government’s control. However, this does not translate into spontaneous demands for tax cuts, beyond a tiny number of people already sticking with the Tories.
• There is a desire to punish the Tories. The anger felt towards the political chaos of recent years does not appear to have softened and was brought up spontaneously by a majority of panellists. Snezzana says the party she voted for in the last election is “destroying the country and the economy” and she will switch to Labour.
Paul, who will switch to the Greens, won’t back the Tories again after the “chaos since Boris was in charge”. Jyoti will not vote Tory again “because Brexit and COVID were all disasters” and while more recently unlikely to back Labour, could go to either end of the political spectrum and back Reform or Lib Dem.
• There is uncertainty about Sir Keir Starmer and Labour. Emma, who doesn’t know how to vote next time, says: “Starmer is someone that sits on the fence quite a lot.” Tom – who says he will vote Labour – says Sir Keir has moved Labour to the centre but “is not a 100% sure on what their manifesto will contain”, adding: “Is he a capable leader? I don’t know, we’ll find out.”
• Sir Keir is “indecisive” and “unbelievable”. Mr Sunak “rich” “unelected and “untrustworthy”. The words used to describe the leaders of the two main parties are largely unforgiving by our participants. Mr Sunak is also weak, disconnected; though seen as competent and intelligent. Sir Keir is known to be a lawyer but “hypocrite” looms large.
• Some, but not many, key messages from the parties, are getting through. David, who is switching to Labour, is one of the few to acknowledge Sir Keir “from a not-as-well-off background. He’s had family problems”.
Paul, who is sticking with the Tories, mimicked Mr Sunak’s slogan by saying “My worry is now…. the Labour Party will get in and we’ll be back to square one” and says “we need to stick with them, see this plan through”.
• Not everybody thinks it’s ‘time for a change’. After 14 years, a minority think that it is not time for a change. All three who suggest this are sticking with the Tories.
• Cut-through moments matter. Widely shared moments on social media are shaping perceptions. Paul, who will vote for the Greens, referenced the bet between Mr Sunak and Piers Morgan as evidence of Mr Sunak’s wealth, suggesting it means he is “obviously rich and I think that puts him a bit out of touch with people. The recent interview where he bet the interviewer a thousand pounds, was a bit not nice to see. Makes him out of touch, especially when people are going paycheck to paycheck”.
The results of this community group – with so few directly switching Tory to Labour – may lead some Tory supporters to conclude that the next election is not lost, arguing Labour has not sealed the deal with the electorate. There are some glimmers of hope for the Tories. However, direct Tory-to-Labour switching may not be the decisive factor in the result.
The 1997 Labour landslide was driven, in part, by Tories staying at home rather than a surge of enthusiasm for Tony Blair.
In 1992, John Major got more votes than any leader at any election ever and a big drop in turnout – from 77.7% to 71.3% in 1997 – was a big part of Blair’s 179 majority. Jeremy Corbyn lost almost 3 million votes between 2017 and 2019, and that was instrumental in the Tory majority of 80.
This community group still suggests less than a third of Conservative voters would stick with the Tories in an upcoming election. This remains an existential challenge for the prime minister.
Former Tory immigration minister Robert Jenrick has called for the Home Office to be split in two as part of a 30-point plan to curb migration.
Mr Jenrick, who is seen as a potential Conservative leadership contender, has been ramping up pressure on Rishi Sunak over the issue after quitting his government post last year.
In a report he co-authored for the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), a centre-right think-tank, the MP for Newark said the government must “undo the disastrous post-Brexit liberalisations” that have “betrayed” the public’s wish for lower immigration.
He proposed a number of policies that should be implemented ahead of the looming general election, including breaking up the Home Office to create a department more focused on border control.
He said voters “deserve a department whose sole mission is controlling immigration and securing our borders”.
The proposals also include capping health and care visas at 30,000, scrapping the graduate route for international students, and indexing salary thresholds for visa routes in line with inflation.
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Mr Jenrick said: “It would be unforgivable if the government did not use the time before the general election to undo the disastrous post-Brexit liberalisations that betrayed the express wishes of the British public for lower immigration.
“The changes we propose today would finally return numbers to the historical norm and deliver the highly selective, highly-skilled immigration system voters were promised.
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“These policies could be implemented immediately and would consign low-skilled mass migration to the past.”
Mr Jenrick was the immigration minister between October 2022 and December 2023.
He quit over the government’s inability to get the Rwanda deportation policy off the ground, and has since become one of the Mr Sunak’s loudest critics, particularly on migration.
Official estimates published in November indicated the net migration figure – the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving Britain – reached a record 745,000 in 2022.
The 2019 Tory manifesto promised to bring the “overall number down”.
The intervention comes amid a pessimistic mood with the Conservative Party following a bruising set of local election results.
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Rwanda bill ‘a bucket full of holes’
Many Tories on the right believe caps on legal migration and getting flights to Rwanda in order to “stop the boats” is the best way to give the party a fighting chance at the general election, which the prime minister has admitted he might not win.
The government is introducing a raft of restrictions in a bid to cut the number of people legally arriving in Britain, including a ban on overseas care workers bringing family dependants to the UK and a drastically hiked salary threshold for skilled workers to £38,700.
A government spokesperson said: “The prime minister and home secretary have been clear that current levels of migration are far too high. That is why the government announced a plan to cut the number of migrants that would have come last year to the UK by 300,000 – the largest reduction ever.
“This plan is working, with the latest statistics showing applications across three major visa categories are down by 24%.
“Our approach is fair – reducing immigration and ensuring businesses invest in and recruit from the domestic workforce, whilst prioritising the overseas workers and students who will contribute significantly to our economy.”
John Swinney has been legally sworn in as Scotland’s seventh first minister.
The 60-year-old is now Keeper of the Scottish Seal, also known as the Great Seal, after taking the oath of office and pledging his allegiance to the King.
The seal allows the monarch to authorise official documents without having to sign each one.
As Keeper of the Scottish Seal, Mr Swinney now has the authority to make decisions on behalf of the crown, which effectively means he can lead the country with the support of the Scottish parliament.
The ceremony took place at the Court of Session in Edinburghin front of Scotland’s most senior judge, the Lord President Lord Carloway.
Mr Swinney’s family, including his wife Elizabeth, brother David, and 13-year-old son Matthew, accompanied him to court.
Speaking to reporters after the ceremony, Mr Swinney said taking the oaths had been an “overwhelming moment” as he spoke of his pride at being first minister and his family’s support.
He said: “I look forward to dedicating my future to serving the people of Scotland.
“It’s an extraordinary opportunity to change lives for the better and I’ll continue to use every moment that’s available to me to do so.
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“For my family this is a very abrupt change of our circumstances. We didn’t think this would happening about 10 days ago.”
Mr Swinney, who has replaced Humza Yousaf as SNP leader, is now expected to begin appointing his cabinet.
A “significant” role has been promised to former finance secretary Kate Forbes, who chose not to run in the SNP leadership race and instead threw her support behind Mr Swinney.
Mr Swinney, who was deputy first minister under Nicola Sturgeon, previously said he is “no interim leader” and intends to lead the SNP beyond the next general and Scottish elections.
He has vowed to focus on the economy, jobs, the cost of living, the NHS, education, public services, and the climate crisis.
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1:40
Mr Swinney offers ‘eternal gratitude’ to his wife
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The first minister has confirmed he has no intention of reinstating the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens and will instead take issues on a case-by-case basis with a minority administration of 63 MSPs.
Mr Swinney told opposition parties at the Scottish parliament: “If we want to fund our schools and hospitals, if we want to give our businesses a competitive edge, if we want to take climate action, if we want to eradicate child poverty, if we want to change people’s lives for the better, we have got to work together to do so.”
He also thanked his wife Elizabeth, who has multiple sclerosis (MS), making clear his “profound eternal gratitude” to her for “the sacrifices she is prepared to make” so he could take on the job.
Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke has defected to the Labour Party.
The Dover MP said the change in the Tory Party since she entered parliament in 2019 “has been dramatic and cannot be ignored”.
She hit out at the “broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic government”, adding that Labour “looks to the future – to building a Britain of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness”.
Part-time NHS doctor Dr Poulter said he could no longer look his NHS colleagues and patients in the eye and remain a Conservative.
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0:51
Tory MP crosses the floor to Labour benches
Mrs Elphicke “crossed the floor” to the Labour benches moments before Prime Minister’s Questions started on Wednesday at midday, with Tory MPs seen pointing at her.
She previously announced she will not be standing in the next general election.
Sir Keir welcomed her to the party in his opening remarks at PMQs.
In a statement announcing her decision, she said the key deciding factors for switching have been “housing and the safety and security of our borders”.
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She said the Conservative Party in 2019 “occupied the centre ground of British politics” and was about “building the future and making the most of the opportunities that lay ahead for our country”.
“Since then, many things have changed,” she added.
“The elected prime minister was ousted in a coup led by the unelected Rishi Sunak.
“Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives have become a byword for incompetence and division.
“The centre ground has been abandoned and key pledges of the 2019 manifesto have been ditched.”
She said the Labour Party has also “changed out of all recognition” since then, moving on from Jeremy Corbyn and “under Keir Starmer, occupies the centre ground of British politics”.
“It has accepted Brexit and its economic policies and defence policies are responsible and can be trusted,” she said.
Mrs Elphicke has previously been highly critical of Sir Keir, hitting out at him for “ignoring the small boats crisis” in January 2023.
In April last year she wrote an article saying voters should not trust Labour on immigration – one of the key factors she said she was defecting for.
The arrival of asylum seekers in small boats is a major issue in her constituency, with most stepping onto British soil in Dover.
Mrs Elphicke won her seat with 56.9% of the vote after deciding to stand in Dover following her now ex-husband, Charlie Elphicke, being suspended from the Conservative Party and not standing for re-election when he was charged with three counts of sexual assault against two women.
He was found guilty of all counts and sentenced to two years in prison.
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