Jeremy Hunt is considering a last minute further cut to public spending to boost the tax giveaway in Wednesday’s budget.
The Politics At Jack And Sam’s podcast, out now, sets out how Number 10 and 11 have spent recent days finding as many different ways of raising future revenue as possible to increase the size of Wednesday’s tax cuts.
National insurance could be cut by 2p again in the budget if the chancellor succeeds in finding the right mix of revenue-raising measures and spending cuts.
Currently, spending is due to rise 1% above inflation after next year. However, if this was cut to 0.75% above inflation, that would raise £5-6bn.
The chancellor would hope to resist questions about where he would cut, saying he is doing an efficiency drive and decisions would be outlined at a future spending review post election.
The decision on whether to cut future spending was live in the Treasury as recently as Friday, and this morning the chancellor was arguing about the importance of finding efficiencies.
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0:43
What do people want in the budget?
This is likely to boost Labour’s charge that the government is “maxing out the credit card” to keep its own supporters on side.
However, most Tories in government believe this is a necessary trade-off to allow the party to go into the next election presenting themselves as the low-tax party.
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Some senior Tories disagree, however, worrying that the public is more worried about the state of public services than tax cuts.
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0:57
Budget 2024 explained
The budget is likely to have cuts or the abolition of non-dom status, which could raise £2-3bn, plus other small loopholes being closed, generating a few hundred million in revenue.
The Politics At Jack And Sam’s Podcast also reveals how delaying Contaminated Blood compensation payouts has helped deliver tax cuts.
In January, the Treasury was worried those payments might reduce the amount the chancellor could spend before he reached the borrowing limits from his fiscal rules.
However, the inquiry will not report until later and the government is resisting calls for interim payouts.
There was also a surprise increase in the unemployment rate, up to 4.8% from 4.7% a month earlier, primarily driven by younger people, as a record number of people over 65 are in work, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
Economists polled by Reuters anticipated no change in the jobless rate, but instead the figure is now the highest since the three months to May 2021, when the country was in lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ONS, however, has advised caution when interpreting changes in the monthly unemployment rate and job vacancy numbers due to concerns over the reliability of the figures.
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The labour market has struggled in recent months as the cost of employing staff became more expensive due to higher employers’ national insurance contributions and an increased minimum wage.
Wage rises slowing
Further signs of a slowing labour market were seen in the fall of annual private sector wage growth to the lowest rate in nearly four years – 4.4%.
Public sector pay growth increased more quickly, at 6%, as some public sector pay rises were awarded earlier than they were last year.
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2:25
Inflation up: the bad and ‘good’ news
Average weekly earnings rose more than expected by economists at 5% and also more than previously thought after a revision to last month’s figures (4.8%).
Also published by the ONS was data on industrial action, which showed August had the fewest working days lost to strike action in a single month for nearly six years.
What does it mean for interest rates?
While a tough job market is difficult for people looking for work, the slowing wage rises can mean interest rates are brought down.
The rate-setters at the Bank of England had been concerned about the effect higher wages could have on inflation, which it is mandated to bring to 2% though latest figures showed it was at 3.8%.
Following today’s figures, traders expect a cut in the interest rate to 4.75% in December.
No change is anticipated at the next interest rate setter meeting in November.
For most of human history, no one paid all that much attention to the 17 rare earth elements.
An obscure suite of elements that sit in their own corner of the periodic table, they were mostly renowned among chemists and geologists for being tricky and fiddly – incredibly hard to refine, but with chemical facets that made them, well… interesting.
Not so much for a single thing they did by themselves, but for what they did in conjunction with other elements.
Added to alloys, rare earths can make them stronger, more ductile, more heat-resistant, and so on. Think of them as a sort of metallic condiment: a seasoning you add to other substances to make them stronger, harder, better.
Image: A worker prepares to pour the rare earth metal Lanthanum into a mould in a workshop in Inner Mongolia. File pic: Reuters
The best example is probably neodymium. On its own, there’s nothing especially spectacular about this rare earth element. But add it to iron and boron, and you end up with the strongest magnets in the world. Neodymium iron boron magnets are everywhere.
If you have a pair of headphones or earbuds, the speakers inside them (“drivers” is the technical term) are driven by these rare earth magnets.
If you have a pair of Apple AirPods, those magnets aren’t just in the speakers; they’re what’s responsible for the satisfying “click” when the case snaps shut.
Image: One of the many everyday products that rely on rare earth minerals. Pic: Reuters
Rare earth magnets are in your car: in the little motors that raise and lower the windows, inside the functioning of the airbag and the seat adjustment mechanism.
And not just the little things. Most electric vehicles use rare-earth magnets in their motors, enabling them to accelerate more efficiently than the old all-copper ones.
Image: Pic: iStock
More sensitively, from the perspective of Western governments, in the military, there are tonnes of rare earths to be found in submarines, in fighter jets, in tanks and frigates. Much of this is in the form of magnets, but some is in the form of specialised alloys.
So, for instance, there is no making a modern jet engine without yttrium and zirconium, which, together, help those metallic fan blades withstand the extraordinary temperatures inside the engine. Without rare earths, the blades would simply melt.
Image: Miners are seen at the Bayan Obo mine containing rare earth minerals, in Inner Mongolia, China. File pic: Reuters
Yet the amount of this stuff we mine from the ground each year is surprisingly small.
According to Rob West of Thunder Said Energy, the total size of the rare earth market is roughly the same as the North American avocado market. But, says West, those numbers underplay its profound importance.
“Buyers would likely pay over 10-100x more for small but essential quantities of rare earths, if supplies were ever disrupted,” he says.
“You cannot make long-distance fibre cables without erbium. You cannot make a gas turbine or jet engine without yttrium.”
China’s dominance
In short, these things matter. And that brings us to the politics.
Right now, about 70% of the world’s rare earth elements are mined in China.
Roughly 90% of the finished products (in other words, those magnets) are made in China. China is dominant in this field in an extraordinary way.
This is not, it’s worth saying, for geological reasons.
Contrary to what the name suggests, rare earth elements aren’t all that rare. Pull a chunk of soil out of the ground and there will be trace amounts of most of them in there.
True: finding concentrated ores is a bit harder, but even here, it’s not as if they are all in China.
There are plenty of rich rare earth ores in Brazil, India, Australia, and even the US (indeed, the Mountain Pass mine in California is where rare earth mining really began in earnest).
Low cost of Chinese rare earths
The main explanation for Chinese dominance is that China has simply become very good at extracting lots of rare earths at relatively low cost.
According to figures from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the prevailing cost of Chinese rare earths is at least three times lower than the cost of similar minerals refined in Europe (to the extent that such things are available).
At this point, perhaps you’re wondering how China has managed to do it – to dominate global production at such low prices.
Part of the explanation, says West, probably comes down to “transfer pricing” – in other words, China being China, refiners and producers are probably able to buy raw materials at below market prices.
Another part of the explanation is that refining rare earth ores is phenomenally energy and carbon-intensive.
Most European and American firms have pulled out of the sector because it is hideously dirty.
Image: A man works at the site of a rare earth metals mine at Nancheng county, Jiangxi province, China. File pic: Reuters
Such qualms are less of an issue in China, especially since most of their mines, including the biggest of all, Bayan Obo in Inner Mongolia, are hundreds if not thousands of miles from the nearest city.
Energy costs are less of a constraint in a country whose grid is still built mostly on a foundation of cheap thermal coal.
Add it all up, and you end up with the situation we have today: where the vast majority of the world’s rare earths, that go into all our devices, come from dirty mines in China, produced at such a low cost that device manufacturers are happy to put them anywhere.
Anyway, that brings us to the politics.
Global trade war flaring up again
In recent months and years, China has periodically introduced controls on rare earth exports.
In short, the global trade war seems to be flaring up all over again.
Image: Pic: iStock
Where this ends up is anyone’s guess. Tim Worstall, a former scandium expert who has been in and out of the rare earths sector for decades, suspects China might have overplayed its hand.
“The end result here is that there can be two outcomes,” he says.
“A: The entire world’s usage of rare earths is mapped out in detail, end uses, end users, quantities, and times for the Chinese state and depends upon their bureaucracy to administer.
“B: The plentiful rare earths of elsewhere are dug up, and the supply chain is rebuilt outside China.
“My insistence is that B is going to be the outcome, and it’ll be done, intervention or no.”
Tens of thousands of Vodafone users are reporting problems with their internet
The outages began on Monday afternoon, according to the monitoring website DownDetector, which reported more than 130,000 issues with Vodafone connections.
A spokeswoman for the company said: “We are aware of a major issue on our network currently affecting broadband, 4G and 5G services.
“We appreciate our customers’ patience while we work to resolve this as soon as possible.”
The company has more than 18 million UK customers, with nearly 700,000 of those using Vodafone’s home broadband connection.
Vodafone users vented their frustration on social media.
“It’s like Vodafone has just been wiped off the earth. Not a single thing works,” said one X user.
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Image: Vodafone users were shown an error message when trying to access the internet provider’s app
The Vodafone app also appeared to be down for users, with the company’s website briefly going down too.
The ‘network status checker’ on the website was also down, and when Sky News tried to test the customer helpline, it did not ring.
“There’s Vodafone down and then there’s Vodafone wiped off the face of the f***ing planet,” posted another X user.
Jake Moore, global cybersecurity advisor at ESET, said the outage shows how reliant we are on modern infrastructure like mobile networks.
“Outages will always naturally raise early suspicions of a potential cyber incident, though current evidence points more towards an internal network failure than a confirmed attack,” said Mr Moore.
“The sudden outage, combined with the inability to access customer service lines, mirrors classic symptoms of a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, where attackers overwhelm the network so the site or systems collapse.
“However, malicious or not, this once again highlights our heavy reliance on digital infrastructure, especially in an age where we increasingly depend on mobile networks for everything,” he said.
“Ultimately, resilience is essential, whether the cause is a direct cyberattack, a supply chain issue or a critical internal error.”