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Michigan State coach Duffy Daugherty was for it. Tennessee athletic director Bob Woodruff was against it. Ohio State’s Woody Hayes was for it, then against it and Notre Dame’s (and CBS’) Ara Parseghian was against it, then for it. Penn State’s Joe Paterno, whose Nittany Lions went unbeaten four times without a shot at the title, was forever virulently for it. Steve Spurrier was baffled by it all, saying, “How can we be right and everybody else be wrong?” So many administrators knew it would come one day but felt it was best for everyone (everyone in power, at least) to fend it off for as long as possible.

It took more than 50 years of arguing for college football to actually install a playoff structure at the top of the sport — and even then, we basically just added one extra game. In 2024, 10 years into the College Football Playoff era, comes a genuine, tournament-style playoff, one with 12 teams and autobids. Granted, the greediest and most powerful figures in the sport are already using the potential for further expansion as a shameless excuse to grab even more power, but I want to pause reality for a moment and focus on the positives of the present. For the first time in the history of major college football, the 2024 season will (mostly) guarantee inclusion. If you field the best team in the history of your program and go unbeaten in the regular season, you will get a shot at the national title no matter who you are*.

(*Unless you’re one of multiple unbeatens at the Group of Five level and have a particularly poor strength of schedule. In that case, you could still get left out. But I’m going to avoid making the perfect the enemy of the good here.)

You now get to play until you lose. That’s been a near-guarantee for every other sport — and for every other level of football, from high school to lower-level college to pro — but major college football’s insufferable insistence on being different at all times, even when a majority of both fans and players are pushing for change, held this process back. Granted, this new inclusiveness could go away soon for all we know; with the increasing “give us what we want or suffer the consequences” attitude emanating from the SEC and Big Ten, it’s possible that future playoffs get rid of a certain number of autobids, or that these two power conferences decide to start their own, new division and wreck the entire ecosystem. But for two years, at least, we get an actual, inclusive playoff atop the strange and wild frontier of college football. That’s worth celebrating while we can.

It’s also worth a retrospective of sorts. How on Earth did it take so long to break down defenses and get a real playoff in place? What were the main arguments against a playoff? Were those arguments legit? Let’s start addressing these questions by looking at what I view as the four times we came the closest to a playoff before the CFP’s introduction in 2014.

1967: Duffy Daugherty’s eight-team playoff

Preferred format: Six conference champions and the top two independents in an eight-team field.

How it came about: Considering how stubborn the Big Ten was in its loyalty to the Rose Bowl and its resistance to any and all change, it’s interesting that the first big playoff push came from within the conference’s walls. In March 1960, Northwestern athletic director (and former Purdue head football coach) Stu Holcomb proposed an eight-team playoff in an Associated Press report. He thought of it as a World Series of sorts for the sport, and it could feature the champions of the six major conferences of the day — the AAWU (the Pac-8’s predecessor), ACC, Big 8, Big Ten, SEC and SWC — plus two indies from a powerful pool of teams like Notre Dame, Syracuse, Penn State and the service academies. NCAA president Walter Byers called the idea “novel and interesting,” and it earned a round of headlines. But by the summer, the playoff had basically vanished from the agenda.

A few years later, Daugherty, Michigan State’s head coach, picked up the mantle. His Spartans had gone 10-1 the season before, narrowly missing out on a national title after a gut-wrenching upset loss to UCLA in the Rose Bowl, and because of the Big Ten’s “no repeats” rule — you couldn’t play in the Rose Bowl for two straight seasons — he already knew heading into 1966 that, despite fielding an absurdly talented team (the Spartans would produce four of the top 8 picks in the 1967 NFL draft), MSU had no postseason to play for. That pretty justifiably made him dream of something bigger, and he became one of the sport’s bigger playoff proponents over the coming years, even after his program had slipped from prominence. He got plenty of support, too, especially with college football having to compete with two different and ambitious pro leagues. At the end of the 1966 season, the Cotton Bowl (a 24-9 Georgia win over SMU) and NFL championship (a 34-27 Green Bay win over Dallas, which sent the Packers to the first Super Bowl) both took place in Dallas within a day of each other. Needless to say, the latter attracted far more attention than the former. As Jack Gallagher wrote in the NCAA News, “One wonders the impact the pro game might have had at Dallas if it had been competing with, say, Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame in the semifinals of the national championship. […] This was for the NFL championship. The winner would go on to the Super Bowl. It was a playoff, an elimination, a meaningful contest rather than an exhibition. Matched against it, the SMU-Georgia contest was a drab affair with scant appeal.” The NCAA was intrigued enough to attempt a feasibility study. (The NCAA’s response was always forming either a feasibility study or a subcommittee.)

Why it failed: “This plan is so logical that I know it won’t be accepted by the NCAA,” Daugherty joked at a Football Writers Association of America meeting. He was right, of course. The sport was in no way ready for this — coaches worried about students’ ability to study for finals, and the bowls fretted over diminished influence (even though Daugherty insisted his three-week event could be done before bowl season, suggesting the same powerful teams could still bowl, too). The Big Ten predictably showed no interest, Notre Dame was hesitant and the SEC, beyond happy with its bowl lineup (and revenue) refused too. You can’t have a playoff without those entities, and the eight-teamer died on the vine.


1976: The post-bowl four-teamer

Preferred format: The top four teams in the polls following bowl season are pitted against each other, potentially with the national title game happening the week before the Super Bowl.

How it came about: After a whole decade of debate (can you imagine??), the NCAA’s executive committee approved of a playoff plan — called a “college ‘Super Bowl’ plan” in a January 1976 AP report — that would tack a quick playoff onto the end of bowl season. This seemed to be an intriguing workaround to the biggest playoff obstacle of the days: the bowls. A 1971 issue of the NCAA News had featured a pro-con debate of sorts, pitting North Texas professor Bill Miller, a prominent playoff proponent, against anti-playoff Tennessee athletic director Woodruff. Miller proposed a huge, basketball-style 16-team playoff featuring all top-division conference champions (even those from conferences like the Ivy League and Southern Conference). He noted rather accurately, “Football is the only major intercollegiate sport that does not produce a true national champion. There is no way to settle the dilemma of who is champion with our present set up in the NCAA. A national play-off system, similar to the one utilized in basketball, is needed in order to crown a legitimate champion.”

Woodruff, meanwhile, laid out all the talking points that would define the anti-playoff position for years to come. It would take kids out of classes, he said, even though NAIA schools had been playing in a December playoff since 1958 and even though the NCAA would decide it was fine for Division II and Division III to start their own playoffs in 1973. He suggested it would be impossible to decide who should be in the playoff (“With so many good football teams around, it would be very difficult for anyone to say just who should qualify for the play-offs and who shouldn’t,” he said before noting strength-of-schedule dilemmas, too), even though most proposals of the time filled most of a bracket with conference champions. Incredibly, he also suggested that fans would rather argue about their team being No. 1 than actually watching their team prove it (“Alumni and friends of College Team A will argue and believe with great pride and devotion that their team which had a great record was just as good as, if not superior to, another great College Team B in another conference.”).

Most of all, however, Woodruff said, “There seems to me to be no doubt that [a playoff] would work a hardship on our old friends, the bowls. A national championship series would undoubtedly take the edge off these traditional games, to the extent that many of them would die from lack of interest. The bowls have done too much for college football to be repaid in that manner.” The 1976 proposal seemed to solve the bowls issue to some degree, still lending them importance to the process.

Why it failed: Timing. The 1976 NCAA convention became a major pivot point for the battle between the NCAA and top football schools, which wanted a breakaway division and increased decision-making power. (That’s right: We’ve been arguing about playoffs since the 1960s and about breakaway superleagues since the 1970s.) Within a couple of years, schools had agreed to split Division I into subdivisions called 1-A and 1-AA (now FBS and FCS), but it’s hard to talk about a potential playoff when you don’t know what teams and conferences might be involved. The topic was pushed to a future date … which gave bowls time to effectively lobby against it. They were very, very good at that.


1987: We need the money

Preferred format: Take your pick. A post-bowl “plus one” title game between the top two teams was discussed — this one was long a preference of Indiana coach-turned-ESPN personality Lee Corso, who once described it as, “Usually at the end of the bowl games, there are two great football teams. They play.” — as were four- and eight-team playoffs that included the bowls. A 16-teamer was at least briefly on the board, too. In a time of budget problems, it was all hands on deck.

How it came about: In 1984’s landmark NCAA v. Board of Regents case, the Supreme Court ruled that the NCAA could no longer unilaterally control schools’ television deals, and it opened up the floodgates in terms of a fan’s access to televised college football. But in the ensuing years, it actually resulted in less television money. Byers, a fierce negotiator, had used exclusivity to the NCAA’s great advantage, and the deals produced huge per-game payments and lofty ad rates. Without this exclusivity, those rates plummeted, and while exposure for schools outside of the sport’s ruling class increased significantly, schools actually made less money from media rights. The costs of fielding a major college football team rose, too, and it caused budget issues.

What happens when you’re having money problems? The idea of a postseason money cannon becomes a bit more appealing. “The NCAA is talking about it now,” said Louisville head coach Howard Schnellenberger, winner of the 1983 national title at Miami, in the Louisville Courier-Journal. “Before, they used foul language to discuss it.” And after a run of bowl seasons that featured minimal huge matchups — from 1980 to 1985, there were only six bowl matchups between top-five teams and nine pitting top-five teams against teams ranked either in double digits or not at all — the classic 1986 season finale, a 14-10 upset win for No. 2 Penn State over No. 1 Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, had shown everyone just how epic a big-time title game could be. Why wouldn’t we want one of those every year?

Why it failed: As Texas’ DeLoss Dodds so succinctly put it at the time, “The bowls have done a good job of lobbying against it.” The Big Ten and Pac-10 made it very clear that, with their lucrative Rose Bowl agreement (and the concrete money it provided, instead of hypothetical playoff money), they would not participate in a playoff. That alone all but killed its chances, but overall, bowls were so influential — and so willing to appeal to naked emotion (Sugar Bowl executive director Mickey Holmes a few years earlier: “The bowls have been a great friend to college football for a long time,” he said, “and how unfair it would be to do something which could destroy us.” Destroy! — that, despite the aforementioned money problems, 88% of Division I schools voted against a playoff at the 1988 NCAA Convention.

In retrospect, you could make a case that saying no to this money cannon ended up having an impact on the desire behind the conference realignment boom that was right around the corner. By December 1989, the Big Ten had invited Penn State to become its 11th member (forever breaking the “If you have a number in your conference name, it should reflect the actual number of teams you have in your conference” standard), and the SEC would announce it was expanding to 12 teams and adding a conference title game in the months that followed. And once Notre Dame and the SEC had left the College Football Association (a lobbying group for the major football powers that had handled media rights in the days following Board of Regents) to secure their own large TV contracts, the race was on.


1993: Yeah, we really need the money

Preferred format: Again, there were a number of options on the table, but a grand 16-teamer began to pick up steam at this point.

How it came about: By 1993, money problems lingered, and other factors were converging. Further unimpressive bowl slates, and the sometimes gross bowl politics behind them, had produced back-to-back split national titles in 1990 and 1991. Both frustration and apathy had grown to the point that the ratings for college basketball’s national title game were surpassing that of the highest-rated Jan. 1 bowl game on an annual basis.

A different issue was emerging, too: the belated push for gender equity in college athletics, nearly two decades after the passage of Title IX, and the way it was breaking some administrators’ brains. At a CFA convention in 1993, Rev. Edmund P. Joyce, one of the CFA’s architects and a former executive vice president at Notre Dame, unleashed an unprompted rant. “Frankly, I have been dismayed at the publicity and apparent support the militant women have received by their irrational attack on football as their bugaboo,” he said. “They seem to be saying that football is the villain, depriving them of support which they should have, and they will prosper only by football being brought to its knees. As far as I am concerned, this is an ‘Alice in Wonderland’ scenario. Yet we men have been extraordinarily ineffective in checkmating the campaign of the militant ladies.” Yikes.

“The bowls have done a good job of lobbying against [a college football playoff event].”

Former Texas AD DeLoss Dodds

So yeah, militant ladies aside, there was some stress. And the public wanted more meaningful postseason matchups. The early days of the Bowl Coalition — put together in 1992 in an attempt to create better bowl matchups (but, naturally, lacking participation from the Rose Bowl, Big Ten and Pac-10) — had not produced massive improvement, and even though bowls were taking on corporate sponsorship to increase payouts and fend off a playoff, the thought of bigger money was still attractive. According to presentations by Nike and others, administrators were told that a 16-team playoff could potentially generate $200 million per year, while an eight-teamer would bring in about $100 million, a post-bowl four-teamer about $60 million and a Plus One about $30 million. As San Diego State athletic director Fred Miller put it at the time, “I think a playoff is football’s best ally. If we leave $100 million on the table, people are going to think we’re nuts.” Well…

Why it failed: No Rose Bowl, no Big Ten, no Pac-10, no playoff. And certain power brokers were uninterested in brokering less power. In 2010’s seminal “Death to the BCS,” authors Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter and Jeff Passan tell the story of Georgia athletic director (and legendary coach) Vince Dooley giving a presentation to other SEC ADs on the merits of the proposed playoff and getting immediately brushed aside by SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, who simply said, “I think we’ll have another option.” That would eventually become the BCS, a system that in no way quelled the desire for a playoff but at least produced guaranteed No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup at the end of each season — even if sussing out who should be No. 1 and No. 2 proved awfully difficult in some years — and, much more importantly, kept the power in the bowls’ (and power conference commissioners’) hands. My father, a retired political science professor, has long noted that politicians would typically rather hold power within a weak and powerless party than merely serve as cogs in an actually efficient machine, and, well, commissioners and bowl execs are nothing if not politicians. So we got 15 years of the BCS before a playoff finally broke through all defenses.


Main takeaways

Dissatisfaction with the BCS — namely, that it wasn’t a playoff — eventually reached such a point that a playoff became inevitable. And after a fiercely argued and minimally watched 2011 BCS championship between LSU and Alabama, the dam finally broke. The four-team College Football Playoff was established in 2012 and debuted two years later.

Resistance from the bowls was epic. Because the NCAA was terrified of the power of television during its early days and deployed an extremely limited TV package because of it, bowl games became extremely important and influential in part because of their ability to actually show viewers the teams they had been reading about in the papers all year. Then, when enough influential people began to publicly declare a playoff a good idea — at least in part because it would be able to compete with professional playoffs on television — bowls guilt-tripped other important people into nixing the idea repeatedly. They didn’t want any development that would decrease their influence, even pushing to nix a post-bowl playoff.

The Rose Bowl, of course, stands alone in this regard. Its hypnotic draw locked the Big Ten and Pac-10 in place and served as an incredibly effective playoff deterrent through the 1990s. And when it finally bowed to pressure and joined what became the BCS, (a) the BCS still wasn’t a playoff, and (b) they still made the selection process odd by insisting on remaining with the Big Ten and Pac-10 whenever possible.

The format we initially got wasn’t one of the more frequently discussed formats. When the CFP finally arrived, it was indeed a variation of the supposed Plus One system — it added just one game to the proceedings and used the bowl structure already in place for the two semifinals and a set of other big games. (An actual Plus One would have used existing bowl ties and selected finals opponents only after the regular bowl lineup had taken place.) Whereas the most discussed playoff systems typically involved eight or 16 teams, or a four-teamer after the bowls, this was the smallest official add-on to the existing system. Which makes sense, of course: They were looking to cause the smallest possible disruption to the existing power structure. They even hired the BCS’ executive director (Bill Hancock, who shared plenty of anti-playoff talking points when his job was defending the BCS) as the CFP’s executive director.

A 12-team playoff never came up. At one point or another, there was talk of a two-, four-, eight- and 16-team playoff. We get 24- and 32-teamers at the lower levels of the sport. Instead, once the CFP finally expanded into something more tournament-style, we got 12. Again, top-division college football always insists on being different even when it really doesn’t need to be.

Most of the anti-playoff arguments were nonsense. By my count, there were about seven typical talking points someone shared when someone was attempting to defend the status quo.

1. Athlete welfare (academics edition). There is definitely extra demand on students when they have extra games to play, but these arguments always felt a bit hypocritical when smaller-school playoffs not only existed but soon came to include three or more rounds at the exact same time of the year, and when the same people expressing these concerns were also at the same time expanding the NCAA men’s basketball tournament from 25 teams in 1974 to 64 in 1985.

2. Athlete welfare (physical edition). Granted, it’s amusing to look back through the archives and read people fretting about athletes maybe playing as many 13 games in a season, but this one has felt like the most legitimate issue. Before athletes were allowed to make money from their name, image and likeness, it was difficult to make moral sense of (a) increasing the number of games athletes play, (b) receiving hundreds of millions of dollars for doing so and (c) still refusing to share any of it with the athletes.

3. Logistical challenges. At one point late in the BCS days, Hancock himself said, as quoted in “Death to the BCS,” “How would band members, cheerleaders, and other students make holiday plans knowing their team might play one, two, or three games on campus during the time they are normally home with their families?” On a scale of 1 to 10, I give this one a 0.5.

4. No one can agree on a format! This was a specialty of Ari Fleischer, the George W. Bush press secretary-turned-BCS public relations guy. “Playoff advocates have had an easy ride where they have never been called on to explain exactly how they would create an alternative,” he was quoted in “Death to the BCS.” (Hancock delivered a similar line in the book.) Over the previous 50 years before Fleischer said this, countless people explained their exact plans in exacting detail. This one doesn’t even get a 0.5.

5. We prefer arguing to actually deciding it on the field! I referenced this one, from Woodruff, above. It wasn’t widespread, but it truly is incredible that someone attempted it with a straight face.

6. It would dilute the regular season. This has been a common refrain in recent times as the playoff expansion debate grew louder. We’re all going to see what we want here — I could note all the new games (and new conference races) that suddenly matter and just how many games will have solid playoff stakes late in the season, and if you’re so inclined, you could just respond that Bama will sit its starters in the Iron Bowl, and I will have no recourse but to roll my eyes and say “Nuh-uh” — so let’s just move on.

7. It would add pressure for both players and coaches. Shockingly, this one was delivered by Oklahoma’s Barry Switzer in a 1978 Chicago Tribune piece: “A playoff would place tremendous pressure on the coaches of the [most prominent] programs and would exploit the athletes,” he said. He wasn’t wrong, but he also admitted in the same piece that “I’m opposed for selfish reasons — I feel Oklahoma can win more mythical championships than it ever could win through a playoff system,” and beyond that … just think of how much “exploiting” coaches would do in the 1980s and 1990s even without a playoff.

8. We just can’t do that to those poor bowls. I watch part or all of every single bowl that is played every single year, and if we added 20-something more bowls to the docket to get everyone in FBS involved, I would watch them too. And to that, I say, yes, we can absolutely do that to those poor bowls.

Take it away, Grant Teaff. In 1994, the Baylor head coach — and executive director for the American Football Coaches Association from 1993-2016 — said, “I think there’s a perception with the public that perhaps college football doesn’t have its act together because there are so many different entities pulling in different directions.” Truer words: never spoken. The sport has always been a mess and has always required a commissioner figure that has never existed. And what we might learn in the coming years is that the only worse thing than not having centralized leadership is having centralized leadership that represents only the most powerful conferences in the sport.

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Conn Smythe Watch: Swayman, McDavid, Zibanejad among leaders for playoffs MVP

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Conn Smythe Watch: Swayman, McDavid, Zibanejad among leaders for playoffs MVP

Boston Bruins coach Jim Montgomery knows a thing or two about how quickly narratives can shift in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

“The first round is the wild, wild West. Always is,” he said after Boston won Game 7 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

That goes for the race for the Conn Smythe Trophy, too. Every week, new heroes emerge in the race for playoff MVP, while previous front-runners fade to the background.

With the NHL postseason down to its final eight teams, here are the favorites, the players on the cusp and the candidates who have a little more ground to make up in the race.

This list was compiled through conversations with those around the league, including some who may be part of the 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members who will eventually vote on the award.

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Keys to the offseason: What’s next for the Golden Knights, other eliminated teams?

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Keys to the offseason: What's next for the Golden Knights, other eliminated teams?

The 2023-24 NHL regular season was an entertaining one, with races for playoff position, point and goal leaders, and major trophies all coming down to the bitter end.

But not every fan base got to enjoy all of it so much.

With eliminations piling up, it’s time to look ahead to the offseason. Clubs that didn’t quite hit the mark this season will use the draft, free agency and trades in an effort to be more competitive in 2024-25.

Read on for a look at what went wrong for each eliminated team, along with a breakdown of its biggest keys this offseason and realistic expectations for next season. Note that more teams will be added to this story as they are eliminated.

Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton, while Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space per Cap Friendly. Dates listed with each team are when the entry was published.

Jump to a team:
ANA | ARI | BUF | CGY
CHI | CBJ | DET | LA
MIN | MTL | NSH | NJ
NYI | OTT | PHI | PIT
SJ | SEA | STL | TB
TOR | VGK | WSH | WPG

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NFL experts debate the 2024 draft: Best picks and biggest head-scratchers

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NFL experts debate the 2024 draft: Best picks and biggest head-scratchers

The 2024 NFL draft brought record-breaking trends, including six quarterbacks picked in Round 1 for the first time since 1983 and eight offensive tackles taken in Round 1, which ties 2008 for the most ever. Now that more than a week has passed since the draft concluded, our NFL experts have had time to assess the class.

We asked our analysts and insiders to answer some of the draft’s biggest questions. We’ll begin with their favorite picks and the biggest head-scratching selections — some of which don’t involve quarterback Michael Penix Jr. going to the Atlanta Falcons in the top 10. We’ll continue to update this story with a new topic every day this week, including rookie classes our analysts believe will make the biggest impacts, Rookie of the Year picks, fantasy sleepers and bold predictions.

Who were the best picks in this class? Which were the most puzzling? Our experts dive in on the top takeaways:

Jump to a question:
Favorite picks | Biggest head-scratchers

Who was your favorite pick in the entire draft?

Stephania Bell, fantasy football analyst: Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 22. When a team fills a need with a standout prospect without breaking the bank to do it, it’s a winner. Mitchell is fast and agile and allowed no touchdowns in over 400 coverage snaps last season. He rose many draft boards in recent months … and yet, the Eagles were able to surprise the competition by snagging him here.

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Cornerback Mike Sainristil to the Washington Commanders at No. 50. A nickel corner with a playmaking mentality, Sainristil was one of my favorite defensive backs to study. He led Michigan’s defense last season with six interceptions and seven pass breakups. Look for him to play a disruptive role as a rookie in Dan Quinn’s defensive system.

Mike Clay, fantasy football analyst: Wide receiver Ladd McConkey to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 34. The Chargers moved on from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett during the offseason, a foursome responsible for 55% of the team’s targets over the past two seasons. Enter McConkey, who is an excellent fit as a potential Allen replacement in the short-to-intermediate area for quarterback Justin Herbert. Even in a run-heavy offense, McConkey, who came out of Georgia, has a path to massive volume right out of the gate.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Wide receiver Malik Nabers to the New York Giants at No. 6. For all the hand-wringing about the Giants’ quarterback outlook, the truth is New York quarterbacks haven’t had a true top-10 receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. Nabers might have the highest ceiling of any offensive player in the draft. Several teams in the top 15 coveted him. Give quarterback Daniel Jones a chance with a guy of this caliber, and see what happens.

Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst: Wide receiver Rome Odunze to the Chicago Bears at No. 9. Let’s give the Bears credit for not overthinking and simply drafting great players. With a rookie quarterback added in Caleb Williams, selecting a go-to receiver for him to learn and grow with was brilliant. It also helps that the two trained together, building chemistry in the pre-draft process. Odunze was my No. 3 overall prospect, which means Chicago drafted two of my top three players in this class.

Eric Moody, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Offensive lineman Graham Barton to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 26. As an ex-offensive lineman, it was a pleasure breaking down Barton’s film. He’s consistent and showcases maximum effort on every play without mental errors. Barton can play center, guard or tackle as a rookie, and I believe he’ll have a superior career to some of the names drafted ahead of him.

Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. I understand everything about the Falcons’ commitment to quarterback Kirk Cousins, the salary cap implications and the potential for strife within the locker room. But if the Falcons are right about Penix, none of that will matter in the long run. If a team believes it has identified a potential transformational player at the most important position in sports, well, it has to go get him. It’s that simple.

Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Edge rusher Dallas Turner to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 17. Minnesota hasn’t drafted an edge rusher in the first two rounds since 2005 (Erasmus James). The team needed to replenish its talent off of the edge after losing Danielle Hunter in free agency. While the team signed Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel during free agency, Turner provides a high upside as a pass-rusher in Brian Flores’ defense. Turner led Alabama with 10 sacks and 45 pressures last season.

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Fantasy projections for the 2024 rookie NFL pass catchers

Check out Mike Clay’s fantasy projections for Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr.

Aaron Schatz, NFL writer: Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 52. Analytics suggest there is no such thing as a “draft steal” because prospects drop from consensus for good reasons. That being said, Mitchell might have dropped due to off-field concerns, and Colts GM Chris Ballard spoke out against that. This was the No. 5 wide receiver in Playmaker Score but the No. 11 receiver off the board.

Mike Tannenbaum, NFL front office insider: Odunze. He has a legitimate chance to be the best receiver from this draft. Under the motto of “win for today and develop for tomorrow,” the Bears have Allen on a one-year deal, and Odunze has Terrell Owens‘ type of ability. Odunze had 1,640 receiving yards and 13 scores in 2023. This is ideal for Chicago.

Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Defensive end Laiatu Latu to the Colts at No. 15. Because of medical concerns and the run on offense, the Colts managed to take the edge rusher who led FBS football in pressure rate in each of the past two seasons — yes, ahead of Will Anderson Jr. and Tyree Wilson in 2022 — at No. 15. The Colts might have landed a great one at a premium position in the middle of the first round.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Odunze. The wideout falling to No. 9 was not a complete surprise, given the anticipated run on quarterbacks early, but it was also not a sure thing. The sixth-highest-rated player on my board could have been the first receiver taken in so many prior drafts, but the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Nabers (the third- and fourth-rated players on my board) made him the third off the board in this class. But don’t be mistaken — Odunze will be an instant impact contributor as one the most polished prospects in the class.


Who was the biggest head-scratching pick of the draft?

Bell: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. It is hard to justify spending this first-round draft capital when the Falcons had declared their nine-figure love for Kirk Cousins weeks earlier. The team did fulfill defensive needs — its most glaring hole entering the draft — in later rounds, but will the strategy of having two QBs capable of starting create less tension in the locker room … or more?

Bowen: Penix. The Falcons built depth behind Cousins with this selection and set up their QB room for the future. However, I saw this as an opportunity for the Falcons to add an impactful defensive player to new coach Raheem Morris’ system, with outside linebacker Dallas Turner and defensive tackle Byron Murphy II still on the board at the time of Atlanta’s pick.

Fowler: Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall to the San Francisco 49ers at No. 31. I’m not about to doubt coach Kyle Shanahan’s eye for offensive skill players, and I love Pearsall as a player. But his place as WR6 in this draft was unexpected. Most teams I spoke to pegged him as a Day 2 pick. Considering the 49ers still have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on the roster, bolstering the offensive or defensive line seemed like a sensible play.

Liz Loza, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Tight end Brock Bowers to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13. I was stupefied by the Raiders’ selection of Bowers, and it’s not because of his talent level. He’s a potential generational talent with a do-it-all skill set who was expected to come off the board before the first half of the first round. However, Las Vegas spent an early second-round pick on Michael Mayer just a year ago and entered the draft with holes all along the offensive line. In the end, I suppose, the value Bowers presented was too great to pass on.

Moody: Quarterback Bo Nix to the Denver Broncos at No. 12. While he posted prolific numbers at Oregon during his final collegiate season, it’s worth noting that nearly 67% of his passes came within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nix’s selection appears to reflect desperation on the part of a Sean Payton-led Broncos team in need of a quarterback upgrade. I felt like Denver could have traded down and still landed Nix.

Jason Reid: Offensive tackle Tyler Guyton to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 29. Look, I get that the Cowboys had a major need along their offensive line. And the fact that they moved to rebuild it in this draft makes sense. That established, Guyton, while possessing impressive physical tools, is a developmental player. There’s no sugarcoating that.

Jordan Reid: Defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro to the Falcons at No. 35. With Jer’Zhan Newton still on the board, it made more sense to take him there. Newton possesses more upside as a rusher and is an ideal interior defender who pairs perfectly with Grady Jarrett. Orhorhoro is unquestionably the better run-defender, but Newton’s combination of explosiveness and disruption would’ve made him the better pick.

Schatz: Penix. Look, I understand the importance of the quarterback position, leading to six quarterbacks chosen in this year’s top 12. You can talk me into the idea that Penix is a better prospect than J.J. McCarthy despite McCarthy doing better in my QBASE projections. But if all goes well, Penix is not going to take a snap in the NFL regular season until he’s 26 years old. The Penix pick isn’t that head-scratching; it’s the Penix pick in conjunction with the Cousins contract.

Walder: Defensive tackle Braden Fiske to the Los Angeles Rams at No. 39. This has little to do with the player and more to do with the circumstances of the pick. The Rams paid an obscene price to move up from No. 52, sacrificing a fifth-round pick and future second-rounder in the process — the most expensive Day 2 overpay in at least the past six drafts and a larger investment than their first-round pick (Jared Verse at No. 19), according to our draft pick valuations. And all this for a player who was at the beginning of his selection range, according to the Draft Day Predictor (in other words, this was a borderline reach).

Yates: Penix. I had a top-of-the-second-round grade on Penix, but quarterbacks always fly off the board earlier than the overall ranks indicate. This is about Atlanta investing in a player who will turn 24 on Wednesday at a position in which only one player will play after paying Cousins $100 million guaranteed in March. One of the great advantages of a quarterback on a rookie contract is the modest cost of his contract, which affords you the ability to spend elsewhere across the roster. The Falcons are not realizing that advantage with Cousins under contract and making $90 million over the first two seasons of Penix’s deal.

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