The UK has no “credible” plan to buy all the weapons it needs after a huge jump in the cost of the nuclear deterrent helped to create a record funding gap, a group of MPs has warned.
Inflation and a weak pound also contributed to the hole of at least £16.9bn in a rolling, 10-year plan to procure equipment for the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force, the Public Accounts Committee said in a scathing report.
The actual deficit is likely to be closer to £30bn if all the capabilities required by the Army – rather than only those it can afford – are included in the costs, the MPs said on Friday.
The committee accused the Ministry of Defence (MoD) of putting off painful decisions about what equipment programmes would have to be cancelled for the plan to be affordable.
Instead, defence chiefs were found to have been basing their sums around the optimistic belief that the government would boost defence spending to 2.5% of national income from around 2.1% – even though there is no guarantee when this will happen.
The findings came after MPs and military experts expressed dismay at a failure by the Treasury to increase defence spending in the Spring Budget despite mounting security threats and at a time when friends and foes are ramping up their own military investments.
Dame Meg Hillier, the chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said: “In an increasingly volatile world, the Ministry of Defence’s lack of a credible plan to deliver fully funded military capability as desired by government leaves us in an alarming place.”
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She said this was not a new problem, with defence procurement characterised by ballooning costs and delays.
‘Clear deterioration in affordability’
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“We’re disappointed that not only are the same problems we’re used to seeing on display here, but they also appear to be getting worse,” Dame Hillier said.
“Despite a budget increase, this year’s plan shows a clear deterioration in affordability. The MoD must get a better grip, or it won’t be able to deliver the military capabilities our country needs.”
The committee said the £16.9bn gap in affordability was the largest since the MoD started publishing its rolling 10-year equipment plan in 2012.
It came despite the government increasing planned spending on military equipment over the ten years to 2033 – the period that the MPs were examining – by £46.3bn to £288.6bn from 12 months earlier.
However, any hope of balancing the books was then sunk by a £38.2bn rise in funding over the same period for the Defence Nuclear Organisation – which is charged with renewing a fleet of nuclear-armed submarines and the missiles and warheads it carries.
The MPs voiced concern the spiralling costs for what is the UK’s top defence priority could further squeeze the budget for its conventional military capabilities.
Adding to the pressure, the MoD said inflation would push up costs for the equipment programme by £10.9bn over the decade, while unfavourable foreign exchange rates – such as when buying equipment from US companies when the pound is weak against the dollar – would add a further £2.2bn.
“The MoD, however, is unwilling to address this deficit by making major decisions about cancelling programmes,” the report said.
“It asserts that such decisions should wait until after the next Spending Review, which is expected in 2024 but might conceivably be delayed by the forthcoming general election, the timing of which is also uncertain.”
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There was also a shortage of skilled officials to oversee the delivery of complex procurement programmes – the equipment plan covers some 1,800 different projects to buy everything from communications gear to warships.
In a sign of strain, only two out of 46 projects included in the Government Major Projects Portfolio – so the most important equipment programmes – are ranked as being highly likely to be delivered to time, budget and quality.
By contrast the successful delivery of five other big projects – including new communications technology, nuclear submarine reactors and missiles – are rated as unachievable.
Asked about the findings of the report, a Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “Our Armed Forces stand ready to protect the UK and as a leading contributor to NATO, we continue to defend our national interests and those of our allies.
“We are delivering the capabilities our forces need – significantly increasing spending on defence equipment to £288.6 billion over the next decade, introducing a new procurement model to improve acquisition, and confirming our aspiration to spend 2.5% GDP on defence.
“By maintaining part of our equipment plan as uncommitted spend, we have the flexibility to better adapt to changing technology and emerging threats.”
The King has spoken about losing his sense of taste as he discussed the side effects of cancer treatment.
During a visit in Hampshire, he made the remark as he spoke to a veteran who had previously undergone chemotherapy for testicular cancer.
The monarch is receiving treatment for an undisclosed form of cancer and was given permission by his doctors to return to public duties last month.
Ahead of his first major investiture on Tuesday since his cancer diagnosis, the King officially handed over the role of colonel-in-chief of the Army Air Corps to Prince William today.
The monarch and the heir-to-the-throne were pictured smiling while chatting together during a visit to the Army Aviation Centre in Middle Wallop on Monday.
It came as Kensington Palace posted two photos of the Prince of Wales when he was an Apache pilot.
“Time flies! Looking back at the last two visits to @ArmyAirCorps in 1999 and 2008 ahead of today’s handover at Middle Wallop,” the post on X said.
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The Army Air Corps is the Duke of Sussex’s old unit, in which he served as an Apache helicopter commander and co-pilot gunner during his second tour to Afghanistan in 2012.
The decision to hand the role to William was seen as a blow to Harry when it was announced last year.
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The King admitted the handover was “tinged with great sadness” – but hoped the Army Air Corps would continue to go from “strength to strength”.
He said: “Let me just say what a great joy it is to be with you even briefly on this occasion but also it is tinged with great sadness after 32 years of knowing you all, admiring your many activities and achievements through the time that I’ve been lucky enough to be colonel-in-chief of the Army Air Corps.
“I do hope you’ll go from strength to strength in the future with the Prince of Wales as your new colonel-in-chief.
“The great thing is he’s a very good pilot indeed – so that’s encouraging.”
The King also unveiled a plaque commemorating an Apache AH Mk1 going on display, the first of its kind to be installed at a UK museum.
William will embark on his first engagement with the Army Air Corps on Monday afternoon, receiving a briefing on its work and inspecting training and operational aircraft.
After speaking to soldiers, he will then leave the base in an Apache as part of a capability flight.
On Tuesday, the King will knight the Archbishop of Canterbury for his key role in the coronation, and bestow a damehood on bestselling author Jilly Cooper.
The monarch will greet 52 recipients in total, one by one, at Windsor Castle.
The King has invested a handful of people with honours over the past few months.
However, these ceremonies took place in private during individual audiences at royal residences.
Rishi Sunak has said the government will appeal against a court ruling that provisions of the UK’s Illegal Migration Act – which created powers to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – should be disapplied in Northern Ireland.
The High Court in Belfast on Monday morning ordered the “disapplication” of sections of the act as they undermine human rights protections guaranteed in the region under post-Brexit arrangements.
The Illegal Migration Act provides new powers for the government to detain and remove asylum seekers it deems to have arrived illegally in the UK. Central to the new laws is the scheme to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
Mr Justice Humphreys said aspects of the Illegal Migration Act were also incompatible with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which the UK remains signed up to.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the government would appeal against the ruling and the judgment “changes nothing about our operational plans to send illegal migrants to Rwanda this July or the lawfulness of our Safety of Rwanda Act”.
Following Brexit, the UK and the EU agreed the Windsor Framework, which stipulates there can be no diminution of the rights provisions contained within the Good Friday peace agreement of 1998, even if they differ from the rest of the UK.
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Migrant pays to return to France
The judge found several elements of the Illegal Immigration Act cause a “significant” reduction of the rights enjoyed by asylum seekers in Northern Ireland under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement.
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“I have found that there is a relevant diminution of right in each of the areas relied upon by the applicants,” he said.
He added: “The applicants’ primary submission therefore succeeds. Each of the statutory provisions under consideration infringes the protection afforded to RSE (Rights, Safeguards and Equality of Opportunity) in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.”
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The judge ruled that the sections of the Act that were the subject of the legal challenges should be “disapplied” in Northern Ireland.
The ruling will fuel a row between Ireland and the UK in recent weeks following the Dublin government introducing plans to return asylum seekers to the UK who cross the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.
The plans were introduced after the Safety of Rwanda Bill became law at the end of April. The law declares the African nation a safe place to deport asylum seekers to.
Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee more than 80% of recent arrivals in Ireland came via the land border with Northern Ireland.
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Ireland plans to return migrants to UK
Moday’s cases were brought to Belfast’s High Court by the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and a 16-year-old asylum seeker from Iran who arrived in the UK as an unaccompanied child on a small boat from France last summer.
He is currently living in Northern Ireland where his application has not yet been determined but said he would be killed or sent to prison if returned to Iran.
Mr Justice Humphreys agreed to place a temporary stay on the disapplication ruling until another hearing at the end of May, when the applicants will be able to respond to the judgment.
Lawyer Sinead Marmion, who represented the teenager, said the judgment was “hugely significant”.
She said it would prevent the Rwanda scheme applying in Northern Ireland.
“This is a huge thorn in the government’s side and it has completely put a spanner in the works,” she said.
The prime minister said: “This judgment changes nothing about our operational plans to send illegal migrants to Rwanda this July or the lawfulness of our Safety of Rwanda Act.
“I have been consistently clear that the commitments in the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement should be interpreted as they were always intended, and not expanded to cover issues like illegal migration.
“We will take all steps to defend that position, including through appeal.”
Gavin Robinson, leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP, called on the government to prevent a fracture in immigration policy between the UK’s nations.
He said if nations have different policies it would make Northern Ireland a “magnet for asylum seekers seeking to escape enforcement”.
Rishi Sunak will argue that Britain is safer under the Conservatives against the backdrop of two escalating conflicts likely to dominate the week.
In the last few days, the prime minister has broken with US President Joe Biden by insisting the UK should continue to supply arms to Israel.
It comes as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to mount another massive military operation in the southern Gaza town of Rafah against warnings from the US and UK.
Meanwhile, there are fears in Whitehall that Russia could mount an operation on Kharkiv by the end of the week to retake Ukraine‘s second-largest city.
Both operations could trigger wider repercussions.
Amid this worsening global outlook, the Conservatives want to highlight what they say is the gap between Tory and Labour pledges on military spending.
After the initial announcement, Sunak wants to ensure he gets full public credit for the big spending commitment while pushing Labour on its failure to match the promise.
Labour says that the Tory spending plan does not add up.
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Israel arms embargo ‘not a wise path’
On Monday, Sunak will use a set-piece speech to mount the argument that there is a need for security at home and abroad in an ever-increasingly dangerous world and describe the country as being at a crossroads at the next general election.
In a further major political dividing line, Labour has broken with the government and called this weekend for a suspension of arms to Israel, placing it alongside the United States.
However the Tory government is holding firm, arguing that now is not the time and that Britain only supplies a small amount of the munitions used by Israel.
Some people inside government suggest that the US government position is driven by President Biden’s need to take a tougher position to shore up votes in the upcoming election race.
Sunak’s Monday speech is one part of a set of security-themed announcements by the government, following Lord Cameron’s media blitz at the weekend.
On Monday, deputy foreign secretary Andrew Mitchell will address a Tory-leaning think tank, while on Tuesday Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will make a speech, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt speaking on Friday.
Also, Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will lead a trade delegation this week to Saudi Arabia.
Although boosting trade will be the focus, Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, is one of the backchannels used by the UK to deliver messages to Hamas.