NHL playoff watch: How the Islanders get into the playoffs
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Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.com
On Jan. 20, the New York Islanders were two points out of a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. That was the day the club announced that it had fired head coach Lane Lambert, and hired Patrick Roy as his replacement.
Heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Anaheim Ducks (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), the Isles are two points out of a wild-card spot, despite markedly better play under the guidance of the Hall of Fame goaltender. In fact, they’ve gone 6-2-2 in their past 10 games, and carry a five-game winning streak into Orange County.
How likely is it that they qualify for the playoffs this season?
The Isles have a 61.8% chance of making it, per Stathletes, which is considerably better than that of the Detroit Red Wings (36.3%), the team they are chasing. Part of that is due to their upcoming schedule: after Sunday’s matchup against the lottery-bound Ducks, they’ll have 19 games left. Of those 19, just 10 are against teams currently in playoff position. They’ll also have a chance to play the Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning (the other wild card) once more apiece, with those games holding the famous “four-point swing” potential.
And there will be some extra juice in three of those upcoming games against playoff teams, as those are the remaining dates against the rival New York Rangers (March 17, April 9 and April 13).
As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC2 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Detroit Red Wings
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
C2 Winnipeg Jets vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Sunday’s games
Note: All times Eastern. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins, 1 p.m. (TNT)
Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, 3:30 p.m. (TNT)
Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes, 5 p.m.
Arizona Coyotes at Chicago Blackhawks, 6 p.m. (NHLN)
New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, 8 p.m.
Saturday’s scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Nashville Predators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Boston Bruins 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Florida Panthers 5, Calgary Flames 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Montreal Canadiens 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Washington Capitals 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 1
New York Rangers 4, St. Louis Blues 0
Vancouver Canucks 5, Winnipeg Jets 0
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Dallas Stars 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 116
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. STL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 77.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 36.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1.5%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22
Metropolitan Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. CGY (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 74.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ ANA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 61.8%
Tragic number: 38
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: 32.8%
Tragic number: 37
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 13.3%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 3.1%
Tragic number: 32
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18
Central Division
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. WSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 77.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: 2.1%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. NSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 12.2%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 73
Next game: @ CHI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 37
Regulation wins: 11
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. ARI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PIT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 93.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 76.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ CAR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 24.1%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 14.3%
Tragic number: 30
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 64
Next game: vs. NYI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 12
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 2
P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 37
Regulation wins: 11
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
WASHINGTON — Andrei Svechnikov scored the go-ahead goal with just under two minutes left and the Carolina Hurricanes beat the Washington Capitals 3-1 in Game 5 on Thursday night, winning the second-round series and advancing to the Eastern Conference finals for a second time in three years.
Captain Jordan Staal scored his first goal of the playoffs, and Frederik Andersen stopped 18 of the 19 shots he faced, including several on Alex Ovechkin.
After a give-and-go with defenseman Sean Walker, Svechnikov’s shot got through Logan Thompson from a bad angle with 1:59 remaining, and that was the difference in a back-and-forth game.
Seth Jarvis sealed it with an empty-net goal with 26.1 seconds left.
The Hurricanes improved to 10-5 in potential closeout games in seven trips to the postseason with coach Rod Brind’Amour. They will face either the Florida Panthers in a rematch of the 2023 East finals or the Toronto Maple Leafs in a reminder of 2002. The Panthers are up 3-2 in their series with the chance to eliminate the Maple Leafs as soon as Friday night.
Carolina is 35-7-2 through 82 games and then two rounds when scoring first.
Despite an unassisted goal by Anthony Beauvillier and some important saves among the 18 from Thompson, the Capitals saw their season end after finishing atop the conference and the Metropolitan Division, and beating the Montreal Canadiens in the first round to win a playoff series for the first time since their Stanley Cup run in 2018. Washington started strong, got a few quality scoring chances but could not get through tight-checking defense to prolong the series.
After giving up the backbreaker to Svechnikov, Thompson was pulled for an extra attacker and the Capitals were unable to equalize and let Jarvis get to the loose puck for his empty-netter.
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Kristen Shilton
Boos rained down at the final horn in Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday night as the Maple Leafs moved closer to extending their 57-year Stanley Cup drought with a 6-1 blowout loss to the Panthers.
Fans even threw their jerseys on the ice as Toronto saw its 2-0 series lead turn into a 3-2 deficit. But coach Craig Berube wants his players to get out of their heads for now.
“That last game was overthinking and not playing hockey,” he said. “Right now, [players] need to stick together tonight as a team and take a breath. Stop thinking about the game. Relax. We’ll get thinking about the game when it matters.”
To get back to Toronto for a Game 7, the Leafs will have to win in Florida, but they likely won’t have starting goaltender Anthony Stolarz. He has been sidelined since Game 1 of the series with an undisclosed injury. He resumed skating over the weekend and was on the ice for a 30-minute workout on Thursday, but Berube doubted Stolarz would join the Leafs in Florida for Game 6.
That leaves his replacement Joseph Woll, who gave up five goals on 25 shots Wednesday.
Players met after the game to break down what went wrong, and Berube had a team meeting planned for Thursday after the Leafs landed back in Fort Lauderdale.
“A loss is a loss,” Berube said. “If we [had] lost 2-1 [on Wednesday] and it was a close game, would it really matter today? We got beat. I’ve been in this situation before. We’re all going to be down and dejected, but we can’t be. We have to regroup.”
That includes the Leafs’ top skaters. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander have failed to score against Florida.
In Game 5, the Panthers repeatedly stymied Toronto’s rush attempts and pounded them with a smothering forecheck that left the Leafs reeling offensively.
Meanwhile, Florida peppered Woll until defenseman Aaron Ekblad broke through with the game’s first goal late in the first period. Toronto’s own mistakes — including a Dmitry Kulikov shot beating Woll off the stick of Leafs’ forward Scott Laughton and a baffling turnover by Marner in his own zone to set up a Jesper Boqvist strike — led to a three-goal second period. After AJ Greer made it 5-1 Florida with his first-ever playoff goal, Woll was gone in favor of Matt Murray.
“[It was] very disappointing,” said Morgan Rielly. “But at the end of the day, whether we lost the way we lost last night or we lost in overtime, whatever it is, we’re still in a position where we’re ready to fight. We have to go down there [to Florida] and play our best game. We can’t dwell on all sorts of [other] things.”
The Leafs were in control of the series against Florida early on, collecting wins in Games 1 and 2 and mounting multi-goal leads in Game 3. It was late in that outing though when Florida flipped the switch — and they haven’t looked back. The Panthers rallied in the second period of Game 3 to score three goals and take their first lead of the night. Rielly’s goal at the midway point of the third period tied the game and forced overtime, but Brad Marchand scored the game-winner for Florida.
That Rielly marker would stand as Toronto’s last goal on Sergei Bobrovsky for nearly six periods of hockey. Toronto was shutout 2-0 by the Panthers in Game 4 and were dangerously close to being blanked again if not for Nick Robertson’s marker late in Game 5.
Bobrovsky struggled to open the series against the Leafs, allowing nine goals in the first two games for an .820 SV%, but he has slammed the door since late in that Game 3 win. He has turned aside 54 of 55 shots through Games 4 and 5 for a .982 SV%.
Robertson’s goal did little for the fans.
“It’s tough,” said Rielly. “But [fans] have the right to do what they want to do. We need to improve and play better. We expect to have a team that’s going to go out and win and compete. When that doesn’t happen, everyone is upset.”
Rielly is the longest-tenured member of the Leafs and has experienced the many highs and lows Toronto has endured trying to exorcise past playoff demons. Brandon Carlo — acquired at the March trade deadline — is newer to Toronto’s history but shared Rielly’s view that, despite the emphatic fan response to their poor performance, it’s not something that should linger.
“In a game like that, you don’t want to overthink those things too much,” said Carlo of the extracurriculars. “It is a passionate fanbase … there’s going to be ups and downs for sure, but from the standpoint of playoff series in the past, I’ve been in these situations myself. Had bad games in the playoffs; it’s not just subject to this group by any means. I think that needs to be taken into account, too.”
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