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Our ranking of the top 100 MLB players in 2024 is here! And you know what that means: It’s time to talk about what we got right — and wrong.

We asked five of our voters — Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield — to take a look at our MLB Rank list and tell us what they and their colleagues messed up and what surprised them the most. Who did we leave out? Who’s too high or too low? And what players will crack the top 100 — and even the top five — in the future?

Let’s hear what they had to say.

What surprised you most on this year’s list?

Olney: The presence of relievers, as well as their collective impact, is growing in MLB. But it was Atlanta Braves reliever A.J. Minter who noted, as he looked over our Top 100 list, how few relievers we had on it. Devin Williams, who could be one of the most important players to move before this year’s trade deadline, is at No. 99. Given the volume of innings that individual relievers throw, the lack of bullpen guys makes sense, but it doesn’t square with the collective impact that bullpens have in the game in this era.

Passan: Just how few starting pitchers populate the top of the list. Gerrit Cole is the only one in the top 10. Just four are among the top 30: Cole, Spencer Strider, Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler. Of the top 50 players, 22% are starting pitchers; on the whole list, it’s 28%. The degradation of the starting pitcher is one of the biggest stories of the last 20 years in baseball, and the consequence is evident when the person who dictates the game — the one standing on the mound — is seen almost as an afterthought by those weighing its best players.

Castillo: Seeing just one catcher in the top 45 and just six overall. Adley Rutschman, the Baltimore Orioles’ franchise cornerstone, is the first catcher on the list at No. 11. Next up? Will Smith at No. 46. Catchers, for good reason, usually don’t put up the huge offensive numbers stars at other positions produce. The position is a grind; the physical toll and daily responsibilities are tiresome. You could argue they should be graded on a curve. The best teams often feature a standout behind the plate. But this list doesn’t attach the necessary value to the position. If it did, Smith, J.T. Realmuto and Sean Murphy — a trio of starting catchers for playoff clubs in 2023 — would undoubtedly be higher.

Doolittle: We get very excited about good, young players but sometimes the thrill we get from watching them seems to overwhelm our empirical sense. So, we’ve got a few too many very young players who have flashed their potential at the big league level but probably shouldn’t be counted among the top 100 just yet. There are exceptions — Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson, among last year’s rookies — but we’ve probably gotten a bit over our skis on others, especially Eury Perez, Elly De La Cruz and Anthony Volpe.

Schoenfield: Name recognition still matters a lot — even if some of the statistical evidence doesn’t always back up the ranking. Bryce Harper has missed time each of the past two seasons and is moving to first base on a full-time basis, a position that requires a higher offensive threshold and which we’ve only seen him play 36 games at. He still comes in at No. 13. Trea Turner didn’t have his best season and is a below-average defensive shortstop but is still at No. 20. Mike Trout, while one season removed from slugging .630, was injured and had the worst rate stats of his career with a .263/.367/.490 in 2023. He’s one spot ahead of Turner. All three could absolutely end up justifying those rankings, but they all feel a little high to me.


Who is the biggest snub from our list?

Olney: Jose Ramirez is going to go down in history as one of the most underrated players ever, and this is reflected in his standing at No. 17 on our list. Since the start of the 2020 season, these are the leaders among position players (Shohei Ohtani not included, because of his special circumstance): Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Maybe it’s because he plays in a small market or maybe it’s because he seems to shy away from the spotlight, but his numbers don’t speak for him in the way they should: Every year, he carries the Cleveland Guardians lineup with a bunch of extra-base hits and stolen bases, while playing well defensively. We have done him wrong.

Passan: It’s understandable that Cole Ragans didn’t make the list. At 26 years old, he has started all of a dozen big league games. At one point, he didn’t throw a professional pitch for three years because of injuries. He also plays for the Kansas City Royals, not exactly a team anyone with functional eyes cared to watch last season. Well, do yourself a favor this season: Watch one start. See the 100-mph fastball from the left side. And the cutter. And changeup. And slider. And curveball. And do so knowing that as long as he stays healthy — no sure thing — he’s a lock for this list next year.

Castillo: Yainer Diaz was a force in the batter’s box when he was in the Houston Astros’ lineup last season. The problem was that, as the team’s backup catcher, he didn’t get regular at-bats. As a rookie, Diaz batted .282 with 23 home runs and an .846 OPS in just 104 games. Now, after Martin Maldonado’s departure, Diaz will be the Astros’ starting catcher. The 25-year-old Dominican will need to work more walks — he accumulated just 11 last season — but he’s primed for a big season with increased playing time.

Doolittle: Jung Hoo Lee. We should be at the vanguard ringing the bell for the “Grandson of the Wind.” His projections justify a top-60 slot but, I get it, that’s based on KBO translations and Lee doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of Pacific Rim-based hype as Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Ohtani. But as a career .340 hitter in Korea with a miniscule strikeout rate, Lee is the kind of player I want to overtake baseball. We’ve got Luis Arraez on the East Coast; now we need a peer for him on the West Coast. Then we can work on the middle of the country. Is it too late for Nick Madrigal?

Schoenfield: I’ll go with the player with the highest WAR last season not to crack our top 100: Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford at 5.1, which ranked tied for 20th among position players. He hit .266/.380/.438 in 2023 while leading the American League with 94 walks, and he also added more power to his game, hitting 19 home runs and 35 doubles. I’m buying the swing change will stick as he hit for a much higher exit velocity and a more optimal launch angle.


Which player in the top 100 is most underrated?

Passan: Over his first two seasons, Julio Rodriguez produced more than 11 wins above replacement by FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Both agreed that he ranked among the eight most productive position players in baseball. To see Rodriguez ranked 18th then — below a number of players he has outplayed — feels like an oversight.

Certainly there’s a case to be made for all of those who rank higher than Rodriguez, but add the fact that he’s 23 years old and on the upswing in his career, and it’s difficult to peg him below some of those ahead of him. In the last two years, only one player has hit at least 60 home runs and stolen at least 60 bases: Rodriguez. An elite center fielder who hits for power and runs like a madman feels a lot better than the 18th-best player in baseball.

Castillo: Not often (maybe never?) do you see an uninjured reigning Cy Young winner in his early 30s ranked 59th on a list of the best players in MLB. Blake Snell is one of 22 people to have ever won the Cy Young award twice. He is one of just seven to earn it in both leagues. But here we are. The skepticism surrounding Snell is understandable. It’s March and he has yet to sign with a team, which could especially hinder someone who historically has been a slow starter. The highest ERA+ he’s posted outside of his two elite seasons is 113. He hasn’t logged more than 180 ⅔ innings in a campaign. He even led the majors in walks in 2023. But results are results. The point is to stop the other team from scoring. Snell has shown he can be one of the best — and certainly better than the 17th-best starting pitcher in the majors.

Doolittle: Kyle Tucker, at No. 28, still doesn’t get enough recognition for how good he is. Maybe it’s the team, as Jose Altuve and (the also underrated) Alex Bregman were already there when he became a regular in Houston. Both are still playing at an All-Star level. Then Yordan Alvarez came around and immediately morphed into perhaps baseball’s best all-around hitter. But there are a number of teams — good teams — on which Tucker would be the best player. He’s one of the best 15-to-20 hitters in the game, plays elite defense and stole 30 bags in 2023. This year marks his age-27 season. It’s time for Tucker to take his place under the spotlight.

Schoenfield: Marcus Semien was third in the AL MVP voting in 2023. He was third in 2021. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 33 home runs, 95 RBIs and 113 runs scored while ranking second behind only Andres Gimenez in fielding runs at second base. In that time frame, he ranks third among all hitters in extra-base hits, second in runs and second in WAR, behind only Judge … and yet comes in just 24th on our list. He’s missed one game in three years. Durability is a skill and it makes Semien one of the most valuable players in the league.


Which player in the top 100 is most overrated?

Olney: Luis Robert Jr. has the ability to be an MVP candidate, but he should not be at No. 23 on this list. He’s played one season of 100 games, and in that year, 2023, he had an on-base percentage of .315. He had 30 walks and 172 strikeouts. He is clearly improving, especially on defense, but he shouldn’t be that high on this list merely because of his potential. Blame injuries, blame inconsistency, blame the Chicago White Sox’s seasons of weirdness lately, but he shouldn’t be ahead of Semien, Manny Machado, Altuve and others.

Passan: Maybe this one is a little unfair. Kodai Senga, after all, is currently on the injured list with a strain in the posterior capsule of his right shoulder — an injury that concerns even the best orthopedists. Elbow issues tend to be pretty straightforward. Shoulders, with their tangle of muscles and ball-and-socket joints, present far more complicated cases. Still, the voting was going on after the New York Mets had shut down Senga, so really there’s no excuse. He may wind up just fine, of course, in which case he warrants a spot in the range of No. 75. Add a heaping helping of uncertainty, though, and his case for any spot on the list is questionable at best.

Castillo: The truth is nobody knows where Yamamoto belongs on this list, but No. 45 — above the likes of fellow starters Kevin Gausman, Aaron Nola and Snell — seems high for someone who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors. The Los Angeles Dodgers obviously disagree. The organization chose to invest $325 million in Yamamoto, their likely Opening Day starter, for a reason. The right-hander is just 25 years old, and his pitching resume in Japan is unparalleled for someone making the jump to the United States.

The Dodgers believe he’ll be elite right away, but there will be a learning curve. He’s on a new team in a new league in a new country. He’ll throw a different, slicker ball. He’ll face better hitters. He’ll be occasionally asked to pitch every fifth day for the first time. And yet, he might end up being better than his spot on this list. But for now, 45th is aggressive.

Doolittle: Adolis Garcia is fun to watch and he was awesome during the Texas Rangers’ playoff run. But No. 34 is way too high for him. He’s still a player with a baseline OBP that barely cracks .300 and who strikes out too much. He’s very much a winning player, with an adjusted OPS that should be at least 10% better than the league average, excellent defense, a few steals and a competitive demeanor. But he just turned 31 years old and any kind of decline with his power bat exposes his lack of secondary skills at the plate. Garcia is a very good player but more 80-to-100 good, not No. 34.

Schoenfield: I mentioned him earlier and it’s possible Turner will hit all season like he did the final two months of 2023, when he hit .339 with a 1.069 OPS. He’s obviously a good, valuable player and one of the most exciting in the game, but I also see a player who has gone from 6.4 WAR in 2021 to 4.9 to 3.4 and is now 31 years old with declining defensive metrics (and who hit just .242/.296/.387 on the road). He’s definitely worthy of the top 100 and maybe the top 50, but I’m not sure about the top 20.


Which player could make the biggest jump on our list next year?

Olney: Triston Casas is going to be an absolute monster, something he showed in the second half of last season, and in the years to come, he’ll be the sort of player for whom you can pencil in 35 homers and a .400 on-base percentage. Between his command of the strike zone, his strength, his bat-to-ball skills and the inherent advantage of being a talented left-handed hitter in Fenway Park, he will soon become one of the game’s pre-eminent sluggers. A perfect candidate for the Home Run Derby.

Passan: Ten days after his 21st birthday, Evan Carter made his major league debut for the Rangers. In 75 regular-season plate appearances, he OPS’d 1.058. He chased that with one of the best Octobers for a neophyte in recent memory, wrecking Tampa Bay in the wild-card series and finishing the month with a .300/.417/.500 line. Carter ranks 92nd on the list, and with full-time at-bats coming his way for the first time, he is a Kyle Tucker starter kit, with a sweet left-handed swing that goes for average and power, savviness on the basepaths and plenty of glove to be one of the best all-around outfielders in baseball.

Castillo: Being named the New York Yankees’ starting shortstop out of spring training as a 21-year-old rookie came with outsized pressure. Add being a hometown kid who idolized Derek Jeter growing up and that pressure turned up a notch. Volpe adeptly handled the assignment in 2023. He became the first Yankees rookie to ever post a 20-20 season. He won a Gold Glove. He played in 159 games. But he hit just .209 with 167 strikeouts. To improve those numbers, he’s implemented swing adjustments to better cover the plate and handle high fastballs. Better contact should generate better results. That, in combination with his speed and power, should make him a more dangerous weapon at the bottom of the Yankees’ lineup in 2024 — and a riser on the 2025 list.

Doolittle: I think we’ve probably underrated Henderson this season and it’s not far-fetched that he could go from No. 37 to top 10 (or better) by this time next year. If he can make a leap against lefties and cut his whiffs just a tad, all while continuing to produce defensively at a Gold Glove level, that’s superstar stuff. Even if he doesn’t quite get there in 2024, I suspect we’ll know he’s on the cusp of it when we make our picks next year.

Schoenfield: I’m still on the Michael Harris II bandwagon and I think he’ll climb a lot higher than this year’s No. 53 ranking. He started off slow last season, landed on the IL and was hitting .163 on June 3. He still finished at .293 with 19 home runs after slashing .335/.360/.552 over his final 100 games. He’s still just 23 years old, has good range and a plus arm in center field. I’d like to see a few more walks and a little less chase. If he can do that, there’s top-25 potential here.


Predict the top five for 2027

Olney:

1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Julio Rodriguez
3. Ronald Acuña Jr.
4. Juan Soto
5. Bobby Witt Jr.

My list effectively parrots the opinion of some players who looked over our Top 100 list — they view J-Rod as a monster talent who is zooming into superstardom with his broad range of skills. It didn’t surprise me that other players recognized J-Rod’s ability; what’s surprising is how adamant they already are about his preeminence.

Passan:

1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Ronald Acuña Jr.
3. Julio Rodriguez
4. Bobby Witt Jr.
5. Corbin Carroll

All of this is subject to Ohtani returning as a starting pitcher, of course, but if he does and is even just a league-average performer, he will top this list ad infinitum. While putting Acuña second when he’s going to be 29 years old is iffy, he’s leaps and bounds better than the other position players today, and the king must be usurped. It could be any of the Millennium Trio: Rodriguez, Witt and Carroll all were born in 2000, and they’ll all be 26, smack in the middle of their prime.

Castillo:

1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Juan Soto
3. Aaron Judge
4. Julio Rodriguez
5. Bobby Witt Jr.

This list starts with two assumptions: Ohtani has another monster season as a hitter in 2024 and is 100% ready to pitch in 2025. Wherever Soto ends up in 2025, he’ll be fresh off thriving in the Bronx hitting in front of Judge — giving the Yankees the best one-two punch in the majors for at least one season. Rodriguez and Witt will each take another leap in Year 3 to cement themselves as two of the game’s best all-around players. Wondering where Acuña is? He would’ve made the cut had it not been for the ominous knee trouble that surfaced early in spring training.

Doolittle:

1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Julio Rodriguez
3. Bobby Witt Jr.
4. Juan Soto
5. Ronald Acuña Jr.

This is tough. I wanted to include Carroll, who, like Soto, Rodriguez and Witt, will be at a career-peak age in 2027. But Ohtani is Ohtani and may deserve to be here even if he gives up pitching before then because, at that point, he could become a Gold Glove outfielder. And Acuña is just too good to leave off even though he’ll be closing in on 30. Meanwhile, I’m assuming Judge and Betts are starting to age out. I could see injuries becoming even more of a problem for Judge. As for Betts … I certainly wouldn’t want to put any money down that he’ll fall out of the top five. And there are others — Rutschman, Fernando Tatis Jr, Henderson. The future is hard to predict — but is looking bright.

Schoenfield:

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
2. Gunnar Henderson
3. Julio Rodriguez
4. Jackson Holliday
5. Bobby Witt Jr.

Enjoy it, Orioles fans.

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How the Rangers rallied their way to the Eastern Conference finals — and which key trends will continue

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How the Rangers rallied their way to the Eastern Conference finals -- and which key trends will continue

The New York Rangers were as dramatic as a Broadway play until the end of Round 2.

The Blueshirts trailed early in Game 6 of their series against the Carolina Hurricanes, and appeared in danger of not only allowing the Hurricanes to stay alive, but win the entire thing by sending things back to New York for Game 7.

The third period was all Rangers, though. A hat trick from Chris Kreider in that frame helped New York overcome multiple deficits and punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference finals with a 5-3 win.

Here’s a look at the keys to their run so far, and a look ahead at how they match up against their two potential opponents.

Rallying Rangers

There’s no arguing that New York had its worst outing of the postseason in Game 5 against Carolina. The Rangers were comparatively lifeless from the start — and still nearly completed a comeback to send the Hurricanes home.

New York responded well after losses in the regular season, and if Game 5 was a blip in that respect (as was losing at all for New York in the postseason, let alone twice in a row), Game 6 is where the Rangers showed why they were Presidents’ Trophy winners. Even after falling behind 3-1, they staged an epic third period rally to seal the deal on opposing ice.

Instead of letting Carolina continue to fester and create doubt about how good a lineup New York actually has, the Rangers tapped back into their strengths (i.e., scoring more than one goal like they did in Game 5) and channeling their top-tier pedigree in enemy territory. Perhaps it wasn’t the cleanest of series, like the Rangers’ first-round sweep, but in the end New York finished the job.


Best of the bunch

It’s cliché for a reason: If your top skaters aren’t performing in the playoffs, it’s tough to find success (just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs).

Consider New York’s run last season, when Artemi Panarin produced just two assists in seven games. This time around? Panarin had four goals and nine points — through seven games. Vincent Trocheck has been a revelation in the postseason, with five goals and 12 points, Mika Zibanejad has tossed in 13 points and Alexis Lafreniere is playing some of his best hockey to date, with four goals and 10 points.

While depth is always an asset in the postseason, it almost always has to be in tandem with a team’s high-end talent steering the ship. That’s what’s happening for the Rangers. When all their stars are aligned, it’s hard to imagine slowing this group down.


Stealing with Shesterkin

The Rangers can give an opponent’s goaltender fits when their high-flying forwards get in a flow. New York is fortunate its netminder is in top-top shape, though, because for all the Rangers’ offensive prowess, they allow a shocking number of scoring chances against.

Igor Shesterkin has been up to the task of keeping New York from hurting itself (too much) defensively. Not only are the Rangers giving up the most shots on goal in the postseason (32.9 per game), Shesterkin also faced the most high-danger shots (63) and completed the second-most high-danger saves (52).

Carolina in particular peppered Shesterkin with an onslaught of quality opportunities. The cool, calm, collected version of Shesterkin (circa, say, winning the Vezina Trophy in 2022) has been on full display throughout the playoffs (with a .924 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against average to prove it). There’s no question he’s an integral piece in the Rangers’ dominance and will continue to be so in the series ahead.

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‘IGOR’ chant rings out after another clutch Shesterkin save

Rangers fans go wild after Igor Shesterkin shuts down Jake Guentzel’s breakaway goal attempt.


Super special teams

It’s a classic case of pick your poison, because the Rangers can beat a team in multiple ways.

Their 5-on-5 numbers are, thanks to that noted core of offensive threats, strong this postseason. And then there’s the power play, which is third best in the playoff field (33.3%) and packs a powerful punch (with 10 goals through nine games).

New York’s penalty kill is even more effective, sitting second best overall at 91.2%, and it was a backbreaker for the Hurricanes to try to get through (Carolina started the series going 0-for-15 on the man advantage). And short-handed goals? New York leads the playoff field with four.

Thanks to that strong play in all situations, the Rangers present a formidable challenge to whomever lines up against them next.


How the Rangers match up with the Florida Panthers

At its best (and most entertaining), a New York-Florida series would just be nonstop goal-scoring. And if any two teams have the offensive firepower to make that vision a reality, it’s the Rangers and Panthers.

Florida and New York are averaging some of the best scoring totals in the playoff field (with 3.70 and 3.33 goals per game, respectively). They can be superb on special teams with two excellent power plays (30.3% and 23.7%) duking it out versus difference-making penalty kills (91.9% and 85.3%), and notably, the Panthers are second in shots on net (33.5) to spice things up even further with their competition.

The Rangers’ stars have come out in the postseason, and so have the Panthers’. Matthew Tkachuk (four goals and 13 points in the postseason), Aleksander Barkov (five goals and 13 points), and Carter Verhaeghe (six goals and 10 points) would be going stride-for-stride with the Rangers’ elite. And while teams don’t necessarily want to be into a track meet at any point in their season — particularly when stakes are highest — it might be inevitable when gifted scorers are rolling out on nearly every line.

New York’s defensive performance aligns with Florida’s, too. The Rangers have allowed 2.56 goals against per game in the postseason, compared to 2.60 by the Panthers — but Florida holds a considerable edge in limiting shots (giving up 24.2 per game versus 32.1). So, New York would have to tighten up there lest the Panthers take advantage to run wild. But even then, the back-and-forth that could come out of this series highlights what New York does well, and Florida has potential to offer up more chances than the Bruins might.

The Rangers’ other big boost is in the crease. Sergei Bobrovsky‘s numbers (.892 SV%, 2.62 GAA) have been solid, and he’s giving Florida timely saves. Shesterkin, though, has been exceptional for much of the postseason (.924 SV%, 2.33 GAA) despite New York’s leakier back end, and he has factored squarely into making New York appear at its most dominant. Naturally, we assume that will offer the Rangers a serious bump on the goaltending side (something they may not have in a series vs. Boston, where Jeremy Swayman has been locked in throughout the playoffs).

New York’s bread and butter has been its attack up front plus excellent netminding, and a series against Florida gives them the opportunity to lean on both — and punch their ticket back to a Cup Final.


How the Rangers match up with the Boston Bruins

This is the Original Six matchup both cities have longed to see on the big stage.

The last postseason meeting between these clubs was in 2012-13, a series Boston won in five games. The Rangers know what it takes to top the Bruins this time around, having swept the season series 3-0.

Boston doesn’t have the same showcase of scoring talent as New York does. The Bruins’ depth was an issue in their series against the Panthers, and the Rangers may, arguably, have more offensive threats in their lineup for Boston to heed. That would likely be the biggest question mark heading into this particular conference finals matchup: Can the Bruins go toe-to-toe with the Rangers up front?

Boston is relying on younger skaters than New York as well. While the Rangers are thick with experience, the Bruins require vital contributions from the likes of John Beecher (22 years old) and Mason Lohrei (23) to give them quality minutes in the postseason. The Bruins also average nearly one goal less per game than the Rangers (2.50 vs. 3.33).

It’s Boston’s goaltending that has been its backbone in the postseason. And Swayman might be the only netminder who can challenge Shesterkin when he’s in top form. The Bruins’ defense has allowed the third-most shots against (32.5 per game) while averaging the fourth fewest goals against (2.42 per game). The Rangers are in the same boat, giving up the fourth most shots (32.1) and fifth fewest goals (2.56). Frankly, this series’ winner would be the one not getting “goalied.”

The Rangers have a special teams advantage against the Bruins with the better penalty kill (91.9% vs. 81.8%) and power play (30.3% vs. 22.6%). But Boston’s kill stepped up big against Florida, and there may be momentum to carry on into another series, too.

Boston has shown resilience in the postseason by not blowing a 3-1 lead in the first round, and if the Bruins make it past Florida it will be by overcoming a 3-1 deficit. The Rangers would have to be prepared for Boston’s confidence to be sky-high going into a conference finals matchup that not too long ago likely looked — and felt — like a pipe dream.

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Kreider’s hat trick in 3rd lifts Rangers to East final

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Kreider's hat trick in 3rd lifts Rangers to East final

RALEIGH, N.C. — Chris Kreider had a third-period hat trick to help the New York Rangers erase a two-goal deficit and beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-3 in Game 6 on Thursday night to advance to the Eastern Conference final.

Kreider single-handedly erased the Hurricanes’ 3-1 lead entering the final period. The go-ahead score came when he got position on Jalen Chatfield at the top of the crease and tipped in Ryan Lindgren‘s pass to make it 4-3 at the 15:41 mark.

That finally allowed the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers to put away the Hurricanes, who had won two straight after falling into a 3-0 hole in the best-of-seven series. The Hurricanes appeared on the verge of forcing a Game 7 for a pressure-packed finale but couldn’t contain Kreider and the Rangers’ surge in the final 14 minutes.

Barclay Goodrow finished this one off by getting to a loose puck near the boards and scoring a long empty-net goal in the final minute, sending Goodrow to the nearby Rangers bench to be mobbed by teammates.

That sent the Rangers on to the Eastern Conference final to face the Boston-Florida winner, with the Panthers leading that series 3-2.

Kreider’s first goal came when he cleaned up a stop by Frederik Andersen on Mika Zibanejad at the 6:43 mark to make it 3-2. He followed by tipping in a shot by Artemi Panarin to tie it at the 11:54 mark.

Igor Shesterkin hung in after a pressured first two periods, finishing with 33 saves and coming up with a big stop on Jordan Staal near the crease and another tying chance from Andrei Svechnikov off a faceoff win in the third period.

Vincent Trocheck also scored off a deflection in the second period for New York.

Martin Necas, Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho scored for Carolina, while Andersen finished with 19 saves.

The Hurricanes also missed on multiple late chances to increase their lead, with Jordan Martinook — who had a highlight-reel sliding effort to knock away a loose puck from the goal line midway through the second period — and Jake Guentzel each pinging the metal past Shesterkin to come up empty.

There was also a big opportunity in the third when two Rangers collided and fell to the ice in their own end, leaving top Carolina center Aho with a 1-on-1 chance on Shesterkin. But as Aho skated in from the left circle, he went wide right of the net as he tried to move to his backhand.

Those missed chances added up to a brutal exit for the Hurricanes, a team that was in the playoffs for the sixth time in as many seasons under Rod Brind’Amour and has been open about the goal of breaking through to win the Stanley Cup.

Carolina finished three points behind the Rangers for the Presidents’ Trophy awarded to the top team in the regular-season standings, and entered the NHL playoffs as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup. But the Rangers won the first three games by one-goal margins — two coming in overtime — to threaten an unexpectedly quick resolution.

Carolina successfully beat back its power-play struggles for the Game 4 winner to stay alive, then rallied from a 1-0 deficit with four straight third-period goals to win Game 5 in Madison Square Garden and bring the series back to Raleigh.

But days later, the Rangers returned the favor with four straight of their own in the third, leaving a boisterous Hurricanes crowd in stunned disbelief.

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What’s gone wrong for the Rangers — and what can they do about it?

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What's gone wrong for the Rangers -- and what can they do about it?

New York Rangers coach Peter Laviolette is concerned.

He wasn’t alarmed when the Rangers suffered their first loss of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs in Game 4 against the Carolina Hurricanes. He disliked the result, but liked the way the team played — with the understanding that three straight wins against the Canes to start the series gave the Rangers some breathing room.

But Laviolette saw the Rangers “off their mark” in Game 5, a 4-1 defeat at Madison Square Garden that narrowed their series lead to 3-2 and set up Game 6 back in Raleigh on Thursday night.

They didn’t play with speed. They didn’t have the proper offensive attack. Their details weren’t there. And that concerned him.

“I mean, anytime you don’t play up to your capabilities, you get concerned about that. But I also know that this group has had games like [Game 5] before and they responded,” he said. “I think there’s oftentimes a realization that it wasn’t us. It wasn’t who we want to be. Oftentimes this year, they’ve fixed that.”

What do the Rangers need to fix for Game 6? What do they need to be concerned about?

Here’s a look at how New York’s series with Carolina is trending — and which trends can be reversed.


Hurricanes are widening 5-on-5 gap

Consensus opinion entering this series was that the Hurricanes were the better team at 5-on-5. They were first in the regular season and the playoffs in percentage of shot attempts; the Rangers were 19th before the playoffs. The Canes were first and third in expected goals for and against, respectively; the Rangers were 20th and 18th in those categories. New York improved at even strength since acquiring Alex Wennberg and Jack Roslovic at the trade deadline, but Carolina has been on another level.

The Hurricanes have had the shot attempt advantage in all five games of this series, and the expected goals percentage advantage in every game but their Game 1 loss in New York. After scoring three goals at even strength in Game 5, they lead the 5-on-5 scoring for the series 11-9. They’re plus-25 in scoring chances and plus-11 in high-danger shot attempts.

“We really believe we had some good games at the start but had some mistakes, especially with the special teams. That’s gotten a lot better,” Carolina captain Jordan Staal said. “I think our game at 5-on-5 has been really good, really solid. And it’s coming together a little bit more. We’ve got to just keep fighting.”

While they’re underwater in expected goals (46.3%), the Rangers are even in goals for and against at 5-on-5 through nine playoff games. One big reason for that: The line of Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere.

The trio has earned 55.7% of the shot attempts and are thriving in scoring chances (plus-12) and high-danger shot attempts (plus-6). But Carolina got the best of them in Game 5. They saw plenty of Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Martinook and Martin Necas, and all of them outplayed the Rangers’ most productive line.

The analytics say that Game 5 was one of the Rangers’ weakest since the All-Star break. Meghan Chayka of Stathletes noted that they had their second-lowest expected goals (1.95) and third-fewest scoring chances (10) in that span.

To address that, there may be some lineup shuffling for Game 6.

At their skate on Wednesday, the Rangers switched up their defense pairings. K’Andre Miller was reunited with Jacob Trouba, a pairing that saw the most minutes together in the regular season for New York. Miller’s former partner, Braden Schneider, skated with Erik Gustafsson, who had been playing with Trouba over the past few weeks. Both of those previous pairings were under 50% in expected goals share in the playoffs. Schneider and Gustafsson were also partners for most of the regular season.

Laviolette wouldn’t commit to those being the pairings the Rangers will ice in Game 6.

“There’s a lot of experience there. A lot of minutes together,” he said of Trouba and Miller. “They’re big and strong and have a lot of experience playing against top lines.”


The power-play outage

The Rangers’ middling play at 5-on-5 has always been mitigated by their incredible power play. They had a stretch of 10 power-play goals in five playoff games, spanning from Game 2 of their sweep against the Washington Capitals to their Game 2 win over the Hurricanes — a game in which they scored the tying and winning goals on the power play.

They didn’t score on the power play in Game 3 but had a critical shorthanded goal from Chris Kreider to tie the game. The Hurricanes are 1-for-20 on their own power plays, which has been just as important to the Rangers’ success as their own man advantages.

Carolina’s lone power-play goal was a big one, as Brady Skjei won Game 4 with a late score in the third period. While the Rangers scored shorthanded in Game 5, their power play was shut out again — marking the first time New York has gone three straight games without a power play goal since March 11-14.

“The power-play goals that we’ve gotten are on broken plays. We’ve got to move things quicker,” Laviolette said after Game 5. “They’re very aggressive in what they do and we have to move. I don’t think we’re sharp.”

The Hurricanes have been gaining momentum by finally slowing the Rangers’ power play.

“The kill has been really big for us in the last two games,” Martinook said. “I feel like the bench after you kill it off — and especially when you get blocked shots and guys are selling out — it definitely gives us a boost. You look at that next shift after having a penalty kill, it usually creates momentum.”


There wasn’t much that happened in Game 4 that would have the Rangers unnerved about closing out the series in Game 5. That included Andersen, who lost the first two games of the series and was replaced by Pyotr Kochetkov for Game 3. Andersen stopped 22 of 25 shots in Game 4, but was in the negative for goals saved above expected. He didn’t exactly inspire much confidence, giving up a bad-angle goal to Lafrenière in the third period that allowed the Rangers to tie the game.

But he got the win, which was the only thing Carolina cared about.

Andersen’s performance in Game 5 should give the Rangers a little more cause for concern. He had a 1.41 goals-saved above expected for the game, stopping 20 of 21 shots. The Canes played quite well in front of him, but when Carolina had to have Andersen make a stop, he gave them everything they needed.

“It wasn’t a ton of work. That was good on our part that we didn’t allow that,” Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “But obviously a couple big saves at crucial times. He kept us in the game. If they go up by two goals in that game, it would have been tough.”

The Rangers have had the advantage in goal all playoffs thanks to Igor Shesterkin. Whether or not Andersen has closed that gap depends greatly on whether the Rangers make life more difficult for him in Game 6. Chayka noted that the Rangers had their second-fewest shots on goal with a net-front presence (three) and their third-fewest scoring chances from the slot (seven) in a game since the All-Star break.

A lot of the credit goes to Carolina’s defense, and the fact that the Rangers were not getting to their game … but give credit where it’s due: Andersen was better than expected in Game 5, both analytically and via the eye test.

Since joining the Hurricanes, Andersen is 7-1 at home with a .926 save percentage and a 1.80 goals-against average. But then, there’s a lot that goes right at home for Carolina.


Carolina at home

Rangers captain Jacob Trouba said building a 3-0 lead in a series has its advantages.

“Obviously we want to close out series, but we put ourselves in a position that we get a couple cracks at it,” he said after New York failed in its second attempt to close out the Hurricanes. “We played good games in Carolina. We know we can play in that building and we’ll go down there and bring a better game.”

The Rangers already have a win in Raleigh in this series, needing overtime to take Game 3. That’s rather notable, given how successful the Hurricanes have been at home under Brind’Amour in the playoffs: 26-12, the best postseason record of any team at home since 2018-19 (minimum 20 games). They’ve averaged 3.13 goals and 2.00 goals against (first in the NHL) during that stretch. Compare that to 2.60 goals and 3.43 goals against on the road. They’re a different team in Raleigh.

“I’m just proud of the group. They brought us another day,” said Brind’Amour, whose teams have gone 16-5 at home in the past three postseasons. “For our fans, it’s great. They deserved to see another game, and that’s what we gave them.”

That’s what the Rangers lost in losing Game 5: Not just the chance to eliminate the Hurricanes, but to avoid having to play in front of those raucous fans in Raleigh who share the same anxious optimism as their hockey heroes.

“We gave ourselves a chance to play another game to give ourselves a chance to hopefully come back here,” Martinook said after Game 5. “We’re fighting for our lives every game.”

The Rangers know what they need to do to snuff out that optimism before it builds to a crescendo in Game 7 on Saturday. They’re confident they can accomplish it.

‘We know that the fourth game is always the toughest one to win,” Trouba said. “It’s a team with their season on the line. We’ve got to find a way to match that level of intensity and desperation.”

And in the process, avoid becoming just the fifth team in NHL history to lose a series after building a 3-0 lead.

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