Russia embarks this Friday on three days of voting to reconfirm the inevitable, which is another six-year presidential term for Vladimir Putin.
Given the fact this is simply a matter of going through the motions for Putin and for the public, why does it matter and why does his administration go to such lengths to try to secure a resounding so-called victory?
First, the war-time context.
If turnout and support flag in line with a generalised anxiety regarding how this war ever reaches a conclusion – particularly a war which is pitched as a never-ending conflict with the West – then it will look as though Putin has made a terrible mistake. This he cannot allow.
“It’s like Churchill saying that dictators ride on tigers they dare not dismount,” says David Kankia of the Russian electoral monitoring movement, Golos.
“We have a war crisis, a political crisis inside and outside the country. And if he gets less than he did six years ago, that will mean he doesn’t have the support of his people and that will crush his system.”
It is also a way of proving to those who might feel at the very least some disquiet about the course their country is taking, that they are in the minority.
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And a warning, if ever they needed one after the death of Putin’s only real political rival Alexei Navalny, that those who might consider acting on those political reservations do so at huge personal risk.
Image: The Kremlin reportedly has a target for Putin in this election. Pic: Reuters
“It is a way of demonstrating that they are outcasts,” says Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
“You must be mainstream, otherwise we will treat you as traitors, as foreign agents, as pariahs in this society. It is better to be mute, to follow the rules.”
This was a message also driven home by the fact that Boris Nadezhdin, the only independent candidate campaigning on an anti-war ticket, was not even allowed to run.
The three alternative candidates on the ballot from Kremlin-supplicant parliamentary parties have all declared themselves supportive both of the president and of his war.
They may secure some votes from those who cannot bring themselves to vote for Putin, but that vote will end up counting for little given the various ways and means by which both over-zealous electoral officials administering the polling stations and electronic voting can be massaged to fit the Kremlin’s requirements.
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6:44
How has Putin been in power so long?
For the majority in Russia, it is easier to stay passive, to go along with the Kremlin’s voracious messaging, to tick the boxes on all things including at the ballot box and to hope that Putin’s shiny new economic promises filter down their way.
Money in this militarised economy is flooding into regions which haven’t traditionally seen much of it by way of army salaries and payouts to soldiers’ families.
The military-industrial complex is working apace, bringing employment and salaries in its wake. Russia’s economy is robust and Putin mentions it at every chance he has.
Kolesnikov calls it Putin’s Barbieland, an imaginary, happy Russia flush with cash that is buying people’s silence.
“It is not justmoney as a factor of silencing,” he says.
“Fear is also significant. Not in every case, for sure. Some people can’t say that they are scared of persecution. But the atmosphere in the country is not pleasant.”
Image: Adverts for the Russian election
Remember that when you see the government’s turnout numbers, when you see polling for Putin at 80% which is reportedly the Kremlin’s target.
This is a country purporting to be normal, holding normal elections, crushing, imprisoning, even killing its opposition, waging war on its next-door neighbour in the name of “self-defence”.
But people know and feel that there is something wrong. The war is a disquieting factor. The atmosphere is not normal and it is not pleasant.
“We will no longer tolerate criticism of our democracy. Our democracy is the best,” Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told a youth forum last week, as though democracy is anything the Kremlin wants it to be.
But it is not. Democracies allow for a free and fair vote, they do not encourage state workers to vote a certain way, knowing that their jobs hang in the balance if they do not.
Democracies do not change the constitution to allow the incumbent to stay in power into his third decade. Democracies allow for vibrant competition and here there is none.
A hidden, underground military base in eastern Ukraine is so secret, soldiers change into civilian clothes whenever they step outside to avoid drawing attention.
Journalists are not usually allowed access.
But the unit that has been using this vast, subterranean warren of war rooms, a dormitory, kitchen, canteen and makeshift gym as its headquarters since the summer is imminently relocating, so Sky News was invited inside.
Lieutenant Colonel Arsen Dimitric – call sign Lemko – is the chief of staff of 1st Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, one of the country’s most effective combat forces.
Image: Lemko
He sat with us in the base, next to a large square table, covered by a map of the Donbas region.
His soldiers have been fighting in this area since the summer, countering a surge in Russian attacks in and around the frontline city of Pokrovsk.
“We aim to destroy as much of the enemy as possible,” he said.
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“Will we take losses? Yes. Will it hurt? Absolutely.”
But he said if Russia is allowed to advance, even more Ukrainians will suffer.
“Their [the Russians’] only advantage is numbers,” he said.
“They don’t care how many people they lose.”
Lemko said almost 17,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded fighting in this section of the warzone alone between August to November.
Ukrainian video footage of the battlefield showed Russian armoured vehicles being taken out by drones and artillery fire.
At one point, Russian soldiers mounted on motorbikes try to advance, only to be stopped by Ukrainian fire.
“Our task is to hit them as hard as possible in various areas,” Lemko said. “We focus on our operations, others on theirs, and leadership will negotiate the best possible terms.”
The Azov Corps soldiers are fighting over land that should be handed over to Russia, according to an initial draft of a peace deal proposal between Kyiv and Moscow put forward by the United States. This is despite swathes of the Donbas remaining under Ukrainian control.
But General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, has since told Sky News that simply surrendering territory would be “unacceptable”.
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3:31
Giving up territory ‘unacceptable’, Ukraine’s military chief says
For Lemko, he says the job of his troops is to inflict as much damage as possible on the Russian side to help strengthen Ukraine’s hand in negotiations.
“Simply giving it [land] away isn’t the way,” he said.
“Diplomats do their work, we do ours. Our job as soldiers is to give as many advantages as possible to our negotiating team. And we’re doing exactly that.”
Lemko, who has been battling against Russia since the Crimean annexation in 2014, also had a warning for the rest of Europe about a rise in hybrid attacks, such as mysterious drone sightings, acts of sabotage and cyber hacks suspected of being linked to Moscow.
He said Ukraine’s experience showed that if attacks by Russia that fall under the threshold of conventional war are not successfully countered, full-scale conflict could follow.
“Ukraine once lost a hybrid war that had been waged since the very start of our independence,” he said.
“Because of that defeat, there was a physical operation against us in Crimea and then a physical operation in 2022.
“Now the hybrid war has reached its climax, and it is moving into the Baltic States and Europe.
“That is why, in my opinion – and in the opinion of most of our officers – now is the moment for all countries to unite and counter this hybrid war. Because the consequence may be a physical one.”
Production: Katy Scholes, security and defence producer, and Azad Safarov, Ukraine producer.
At least 25 people have been killed after a fire at a nightclub in Goa, the state’s police service has said.
The fire reportedly started around midnight on Saturday local time.
The majority of victims were kitchen staff at the club – although around three to four tourists are thought to be among those killed.
Videos on social media showed emergency services lining up to help the injured – some of whom were taken to nearby hospitals.
Dr Pramod Sawant, Goa’s chief minister, said: “I am deeply grieved and offer my heartfelt condolences to all the bereaved families in this hour of unimaginable loss.”
He later said he was “closely reviewing the situation arising from the tragic fire” – adding six additional people had been injured.
“All six injured persons are in a stable condition and are receiving the best medical care,” he said.
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Image: Pic: NDTV
Image: Fire at nightclub in Goa. Pic: NDTV
Authorities worked through the night to bring the situation under control and all bodies have been recovered, the state’s police chief told reporters, according to Reuters news agency.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the deadly fire was “deeply saddening”.
He said he had spoken with Goa’s chief minister and that “the state government is providing all possible assistance to those affected”.
Dr Sawant said he has “ordered an inquiry” to discover what happened after visiting the site.
Image: Pic: AP
“The inquiry will examine the exact cause of the fire and whether fire safety norms and building rules were followed,” he said.
“Those found responsible will face most stringent action under the law – any negligence will be dealt with firmly.”
Goa, a small state on India’s western coast, is a popular tourist destination, attracting millions of tourists every year.
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight, after US and Ukrainian officials said they would meet for a third day of talks aimed at bringing the war to an end.
The two sides said they had made progress on a security framework for post-war Ukraine, but that any “real progress toward any agreement” will depend “on Russia’s readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace.”
Russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles in its attack on Ukraine, triggering air raid alerts across the country, Ukraine’s air force said.
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Giving up territory ‘unacceptable’ – Ukraine’s military chief
Ukrainian forces shot down and neutralised 585 drones and 30 missiles, the air force said, adding that 29 locations were struck.
At least eight people were wounded in the attacks, Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs Ihor Klymenko said.
Russia conducted a “massive missile-drone attack” on power stations and other energy infrastructure in several regions, Ukraine’s national energy operator Ukrenergo said on Instagram.
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant temporarily lost all off-site power overnight, the International Atomic Energy Agency said.
The plant is in an area that has been under Russian control since early in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It is not in service, but needs reliable power to cool its six shutdown reactors and spent fuel in order to avoid any catastrophic nuclear incidents.
Image: Russia struke a train station in the city of Fastiv. Pics: Reuters
Zelenskyy condemns ‘meaningless’ strikes
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strikes as “meaningless” from a military point of view.
He said energy facilities were the main targets, but a drone strike had “burned down” a train station in the city of Fastiv, in the Kyiv region.
“The Russians’ goal is to hurt millions of Ukrainians, and they have sunk so low that they are launching missiles at peaceful cities on St. Nicholas Day,” he said.
“That is why additional pressure is needed. Sanctions must work, and so must our air defence, which means we must continue to support those who defend our lives.”
Ukraine strikes oil refinery
Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry said its air defences had shot down 116 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory overnight.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Ukrainian forces had struck Russia’s Ryazan Oil Refinery, while Russian Telegram news channel Astra shared footage appearing to show a fire breaking out and plumes of smoke rising above the refinery.
Over the last few months, Ukraine has used long-range drones to target Russian refineries in an attempt to deprive Moscow of the oil export revenue it needs to continue the war.
Meanwhile, Kyiv and its Western allies say Russia is trying to cripple Ukraine’s power grid and deny civilians access to heat, light and running water in winter, which Ukrainian officials call “weaponising” the cold.
On Monday, Mr Zelenskyy will meet Sir Keir Starmer in London to discuss the ongoing negotiations mediated by the US, along with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.