Putin extends his rule after an unfree and unfair election – so what’s next?

Published

1 month ago

March 18, 2024

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Now the three-day electoral spectacle is done – a shiny semblance of democracy, unfree, unfair and underpinned by Soviet-style repressions – what is next for Vladimir Putin and for the country he leads?

Expect the state to clamp down still further on what remains of Russia‘s enfeebled civil society.

Putin‘s authoritarian course was set way ahead of his invasion of Ukraine, but over the last two years there has been a galloping momentum to the erosion of civil liberties and to the numbers jailed for minor infractions suddenly deemed subversive.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Election most corrupt ‘in Russia’s history’

This is a long way from the kinds of repressions Stalin inflicted on his countrymen where millions were sent to the gulags, but the trajectory is bad.

“All these people surrounding Putin are participating in a race of repression initiatives,” says Andrei Kolesnikov, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.

“To be loyal is to invent new repressions, new amendments to the laws on foreign agents, on the media, on the criminal code.”

The elites are nothing if not consistent on that front, their consolidation around Putin and their performative loyalty one of the features of the past two, uncertain years.

The Communist Party, for example, supposedly the biggest threat on the ballot to Putin in the polls, has this Monday declared electronic voting unsafe.

Not, mind you, because of the ease with which election officials might manipulate the outcome, but because of potential “interference from the outside”.

There it is – the role of the Kremlin-approved “opposition” to back up Putin’s narrative, whatever that might be.

That is why they are welcomed in the parliament and on the ballot and are happy to take away a meagre 4% of the vote.

Welcome to Russia’s token “opposition” – remember that the actual opposition are either in prison, in exile or dead.

Putin will continue to tell his people more of the same about their place in history and the necessity of his war in Ukraine.

Russian nuclear weapons are big and terrifying, Russian society is one big happy family, the wartime economy is doing well, the multipolar future is here to stay – just keep the faith in this eternal war with the West.

Many, perhaps most, Russians will absorb that messaging because it is compellingly told and pervasive, but there is also a sense of unease vis-a-vis the war, an uncertainty and an unwillingness to look far ahead or plan for the future.

“We have very high inflation, salaries have not increased, we’ve become poorer, there is less choice in terms of consumer goods and household items in general because companies have left so we just engage in piracy now,” one voter in Moscow told our team on Sunday, a succinct precis of the sanctions impact felt at least in the big cities.

“It has become almost impossible to visit certain countries and families and friends. We have really rolled back and become less civilised.”

Now that Putin has overcome this election “hurdle” there will be no literal barrier beyond a hit to his approval ratings should he call for a further mobilisation.

That possibility remains in the back of people’s minds, but Russia’s fortunes in Ukraine would have to worsen considerably if Putin were to take that step and he’ll likely desist if he can.

Until Ukraine can get the weaponry and ammunition it needs to fight back more effectively, Putin will remain buoyed by the kind of confidence we’ve seen in recent weeks.

“If a year ago Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and resorted to defensive, even sacrificial rhetoric, now he sounds victorious speaking not on behalf of a geopolitical victim but on behalf of a ‘colossal, all-conquering force’,” writes Tatyana Stanovaya, of R.Politik, on the social media platform Telegram.

“This is explained by the growing faith of the Russian leadership in Russia’s military advantage in the war with Ukraine, and a sense of the weakness and disunity of the West.”

Much will depend on events outside of Russia this year – arms to Ukraine, the future incumbent in the White House and the cohesion, or lack of it, of the West.

Those are, one must hope, outside of Putin’s control even if the West must shore up its democracies to make sure that that is indeed the case.

What is certain is that Putin has relentless staying power, a conclusion as clear before this “election” as it is now.

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Ireland pledging emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to UK in wake of Rwanda bill being passed

Published

9 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Ireland pledging emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to UK in wake of Rwanda bill being passed

Ireland is pledging emergency legislation enabling it to send asylum seekers back to the UK.

More than 80% of recent arrivals in the republic came via the land border with Northern Ireland, Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week.

Rishi Sunak told Sky News it showed the UK’s Rwanda scheme was already working as a deterrent after it finally became law last week.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister has said the threat of deportation to Rwanda is causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of the UK.

Micheal Martin said the policy was already affecting Ireland because people are “fearful” of staying in the UK.

The former taoiseach told The Daily Telegraph: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Simon Harris, Ireland’s latest leader, has asked Ms McEntee to “bring proposals to cabinet to amend existing law regarding the designation of safe ‘third countries’ and allowing the return of inadmissible international protection applicants to the UK”, a spokesman said.

Ms McEntee said she will be meeting UK Home Secretary James Cleverly in London on Monday.

“There are many reasons why we have seen an increase in migration towards Ireland,” she told RTE.

“My focus as minister for justice is making sure that we have an effective immigration structure and system.

“That’s why I’m introducing fast processing, that’s why I’ll have emergency legislation at cabinet this week to make sure that we can effectively return people to the UK, and that’s why I’ll be meeting with the home secretary to raise these issues on Monday.”

People are now “worried” about coming to the UK, Rishi Sunak has said.

He told Sky News: “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay here, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”

Mr Sunak said the comments from Irish politicians show that “illegal migration is a global challenge”.

“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe [they] will follow where the UK has led,” he said.

Shadow minister Wes Streeting said it was unlikely a Labour government would bring people back from Rwanda if some are sent there.

“Once people are settled in Rwanda, they’re settled in Rwanda,” he told Sky News, adding it was doubtful that Labour would “unpick that situation”.

Regarding illegal migration in general, he said it required “putting the money that’s gone to Rwanda into the National Crime Agency so we can have proper cross-border policing to tackle the criminal gangs, speeding up the processing of decision-making, making sure we’ve got serious returns agreements with other countries”.

He added: “Those are solutions that can work.”

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Pope makes first visit out of Rome for seven months after health scares

Published

11 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Pope makes first visit out of Rome for seven months after health scares

Pope Francis has made his first trip out of Rome for seven months with a visit to Venice where he asked worshippers to “pray for me”.

It was a rare acknowledgement of the strains of the job as he told thousands of the faithful gathered in St Mark’s Square: “This work is not easy”.

During a five-hour visit on Sunday, the pontiff visited an art exhibition and prison as well as conducting mass.

The 87-year-old unexpectedly withdrew from a Good Friday procession in March “to preserve his health”.

He had been battling respiratory problems all winter that made it difficult for him to speak at length.

In December, he was due to go to the United Arab Emirates, but pulled out after coming down with flu.

A painful knee ailment makes it hard for him to walk and on Sunday he regularly used a wheelchair, with Vatican News Television cutting away whenever he was helped into a chair to give a speech, or on to his white golf cart.

The Pope acknowledged Venice’s “enchanting beauty” in his homily at a mass before about 10,000 people in the shadow of St Mark’s Basilica, one of the most celebrated churches in Italy.

But he said the city also faced an array of challenges, including climate change, the fragility of its cultural heritage, and overtourism.

“Moreover, all these realities risk generating… frayed social relations, individualism, and loneliness,” he said.

Venice introduced a €5 charge last week for day-trippers during peak travel periods in an effort to thin the crowds.

He started the day by flying by helicopter into a women’s prison where the Vatican has set up an exhibition that is part of the Venice Biennale, a prestigious international art show that has never been visited by a pope before.

The pope has repeatedly called for society to rally around the poor and neglected, including prison populations.

“Prison is a harsh reality, and problems such as overcrowding, the lack of facilities and resources, and episodes of violence, give rise to a great deal of suffering. But it can also become a place of moral and material rebirth,” he told inmates and guards on Sunday.

He also addressed a group of young Venetians, urging them not to spend their life glued to their smartphones, but to help others.

“If we always focus on our self, our needs, and what we lack, we will always find ourselves back at the starting point, crying over ourselves with a long face,” he said.

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Russian journalists jailed over alleged work for Alexei Navalny group

Published

12 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Russian journalists jailed over alleged work for Alexei Navalny group

Two Russian journalists could face at least two years in prison after they were arrested on “extremism” charges, accused of working for a group founded by the late Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny.

Konstantin Gabov and Sergey Karelin are accused of preparing materials for a YouTube channel run by Navalny’s Foundation for Fighting Corruption, which has been outlawed by Russian authorities.

Russian courts have ordered them to remain in custody pending an investigation and trial.

They will be detained for at least two months before any trial begins.

They face a minimum of two years’ jail time and a maximum of six years for alleged “participation in an extremist organisation”, according to Russian courts.

Both journalists deny the charges.

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The journalists are the latest to be arrested amid a Russian government crackdown on dissent and independent media that intensified after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian government passed laws criminalising what it deems false information or discreditory statements about the military, effectively outlawing any criticism of the war in Ukraine.

Mr Gabov, who was detained in Moscow, is a freelance producer who has worked for multiple outlets, including Reuters, the court press service said.

Mr Karelin, who has dual citizenship with Israel and has previously worked for The Associated Press, was detained on Friday night in Russia’s northern Murmansk region.

“The Associated Press is very concerned by the detention of Russian video journalist Sergey Karelin,” the AP said in a statement. “We are seeking additional information.”

Their arrests come after Forbes journalist Sergei Mingazov was detained on charges of spreading false information about the Russian military on Friday, according to his lawyer.

A number of journalists have been jailed in relation to their coverage of Mr Navalny, who died in an Arctic penal colony in February.