Are you ready for Opening Day? Here’s your guide to the offseason chaos that rocked MLB
The start of the 2024 MLB regular season is just days away following an offseason that was so chaotic that … well, it hasn’t quite ended yet.
Before the shock factor of a World Series featuring a pair of wild-card teams in the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks had completely worn off, the hot stove heated up and provided everything — from a manager changing sides in one of MLB’s best rivalries to a $1.2 billion free agency spending spree by one team. And, of course, the prolonged drama surrounding the free agents who didn’t sign until well into spring training — or, in some cases, remain unsigned heading into Opening Day.
No matter how you spent the winter, you probably know that Shohei Ohtani joined the Los Angeles Dodgers — and is $700 million richer than when we saw him last fall. But whether you are just realizing that Juan Soto is now wearing pinstripes and that several aces are in new uniforms or you know all the moves but still aren’t sure what to make of them, we’ve got you covered for when all 30 teams take the field for Opening Day on March 30 (after the Dodgers and Padres get the season started March 20-21 in Seoul, Korea).
ESPN baseball experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield break down the moves that rocked the offseason. What did they mean for the teams that made them — and the rest of MLB?
Baseball’s most coveted manager switches sides of a rivalry
Date of the deal: Nov. 6 — Cubs fire Ross, hire Brewers’ Counsell as manager
What it means for the Cubs: Beginning with the Leo Durocher tenure in the late 1960s and early ’70s, the Cubs have careened between star managers and unproven managers, going back and forth in an ongoing game of skipper pingpong. They’ve never gone all-in like this: Counsell’s five-year, $40 million contract makes him the highest-paid manager in baseball history. That’s what being on the short list of the game’s top managers gets you these days. Now Counsell just has to prove he’s worth it. How? By doing what he did in Milwaukee, where his clubs annually outperformed expectations, showed an uncanny ability to win close games, fielded stout bullpens and generally enjoyed an atmosphere of self-improvement. If that happens and Counsell remains entrenched at Wrigley beyond his historic pact, he’d be the first Cubs skipper to last more than five years at a stretch since Durocher.
How it will shape the 2024 season: If Counsell succeeds, the Cubs will have taken one of the best parts of one of their chief competitors and turned it into their own advantage. The Cubs finished nine games behind the Brewers a season ago. The rosters throughout the NL Central have evolved, but if the Cubs win the division and outperform the Brewers in measures like record in one- and two-run games, execs around the game might reconsider how much value an elite manager adds.
Dominoes: Counsell’s stunning decision to move 90 miles to the south not only rewrote the outlooks of the NL Central’s top two teams, but it kept him away from other powers looking for a next-level skipper, like the Mets, Giants, Astros and Padres. Whether Counsell would have gone to any of those teams is an open question but, then again, pretty much no one thought he’d end up with the Cubs. The landscape of managers in baseball was rearranged by his decision. — Doolittle
The Phillies spend big to keep an ace
Date of the deal: Nov. 19 — Phillies, Nola agree to $172 million contract
What it means for the Phillies: This offseason further proved two things about the Phillies: They value top-tier starting pitching and they’re not afraid to spend lavishly. The Phillies advanced deep into October each of the past two seasons thanks in part to having Nola and Zack Wheeler atop their rotation. Keeping the co-aces around for the long haul was their top offseason priority. They quickly locked up Nola, their longtime rotation stalwart, signing him to a seven-year, $172 million contract on Nov. 19. Then in March, they gave Wheeler a three-year contract extension worth a whopping $126 million. The $42 million in annual average value is the richest for an extension in MLB history. That’s a $298 million investment in two pitchers in their 30s. The Phillies know championship windows don’t last forever — and they’re going for it.
How it will shape the 2024 season: The Phillies are playing for a wild-card spot. That’s life in the NL East with the loaded Braves around. And that’s fine with them. They reached the World Series in 2022 and Game 7 of the NLCS last year as a wild-card entrant. With Bryce Harper headlining a veteran lineup plus the strong rotation, the Phillies are back in contention.
Dominoes: Nola flirted with joining the Braves, but the Phillies were always the favorites. The Braves, as a result, would later pivot in a surprising direction. Wheeler’s decision will have more of an impact next winter, which was when he was scheduled to hit free agency. The free-agent class is still slated to be strong for starting pitching with Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer among the options. — Castillo
The Cardinals act quick to fill out their rotation
Date of the deal: Nov. 27 — Cardinals add Gray on three-year contract
What it means for the Cardinals: The Cardinals had the second-worst rotation ERA in franchise history at 5.04, leading to their first losing season since 2007 and worst win-loss percentage since 1995. They were desperate for arms and in less than a week’s span in late November signed Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray — three veterans who each ranked in the top 25 in the majors in innings pitched last season. The Cardinals are historically conservative in free agency, and they remained disciplined here as Lynn and Gibson signed one-year deals with club options while Gray, coming off a second-place finish in the AL Cy Young race, signed for three years and $75 million (with a club option), although his salary will increase from $10 million in 2024 to $35 million in 2026.
How it will shape the 2024 season: While there is some age-related risk here as Gray is the youngest of the trio at 34, the signings should help stabilize the rotation and push the Cardinals back into contention in the NL Central. Let’s put it this way: If Gray can reproduce his 2023 numbers — which is unlikely, but go with us here — that’s a seven-win improvement over what Adam Wainwright provided. That alone won’t be enough, however: The Cardinals will still need better offense and better defense.
Dominoes: Nola and Gray had both been linked to the Braves, who were looking to add more starting pitching depth after entering the postseason with an injury-riddled rotation. With those two off the board, the Braves would eventually turn in a more creative direction for rotation help. — Schoenfield
Fresh off deep October run, the D-backs start winter spree
Date of the deal: Dec. 6 — D-backs, Rodriguez reach four-year deal
What it means for the D-backs: When the Diamondbacks’ magical run to the World Series finally ended, general manager Mike Hazen lamented not adding another starting pitcher before the trade deadline. It wasn’t much of a surprise that he ultimately got one this offseason. But signing Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year, $80 million deal offered a deliberate statement: The small-market D-backs were doubling down on their inspired playoff push (and not following the path of so many other teams that used RSN uncertainty as an excuse to limit spending). They added to the Rodriguez signing by bringing back left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., trading for third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and adding a new DH platoon in Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk.
How it will shape the 2024 season: The D-backs are no longer the young, plucky team that became a feel-good story in October — they are a legitimate force. They have a good, young core in Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Gabriel Moreno, Geraldo Perdomo, Brandon Pfaadt and, eventually, Jordan Lawlar, but they also have solid veteran pieces around them. And they play an inspired brand of baseball that gives their opponents fits. In other words, they need to be accounted for. Their offseason proved that.
Dominoes: Rodriguez’s contract followed those of Nola and Gray, and it helped set up deals for Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman and Lucas Giolito. More importantly: The D-backs’ overall aggression might have played a role in what their division rivals ultimately did. — Gonzalez
The Yankees get their guy in blockbuster with Padres
Date of the deal: Dec. 6 — Yankees acquire Soto in seven-player deal
What it means for the Yankees: Adding potent left-handed-hitting outfielders to balance their lineup and signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto to place alongside Gerrit Cole were the Yankees’ two principal goals entering the offseason. They checked the first box with the best possible option, trading for superstar Juan Soto in a seven-player deal with the Padres on Dec. 6. Trent Grisham, another left-handed-hitting outfielder, was also sent to the Bronx. Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Kyle Higashioka, and prospect Drew Thorpe went the other way. They had acquired Alex Verdugo, a third left-handed-hitting outfielder, from the Red Sox the night before. It was a wonderful start to their offseason. The momentum wouldn’t last.
How it will shape the 2024 season: The decision to trade for Soto in his final year of team control before hitting free agency solidified the Yankees’ level of urgency. It’s always championship-or-bust in the Bronx, but failure this season could have significant repercussions for the people in charge. With Soto and Aaron Judge, the Yankees boast perhaps the best one-two punch in the majors. It lengthens a lineup that was beset by injuries in 2023. Soto and Judge should both compete for AL MVP. The Yankees will score plenty of runs if they stay healthy. That’s a big if.
Dominoes: Soto was, by far, the best position player on the trade market. And the Yankees were, by far, the likeliest destination for him. The next-best left-handed-hitting option for teams that missed out on both Soto and top free agent Shohei Ohtani? Cody Bellinger. Landing Soto affords the Yankees the opportunity to convince him that playing in pinstripes for the rest of his career is the right move before reaching free agency next winter. It’ll ultimately come down to money. But it doesn’t hurt if Soto loves his time in the Bronx. — Castillo
Ohtani deal starts Dodgers’ $1.2 billion — yes, billion — offseason
Date of the deal(s): Dec. 9 — Ohtani signs 10-year, $700 million contract
Dec. 14 — Dodgers and Rays agree to Glasnow trade
Dec. 21 — Yamamoto goes to Dodgers for 12 years, $325 million
What it means for the Dodgers: The Dodgers’ front office has acted aggressively at times in prior years, but they’ve never been exorbitant. Not like this, at least. They signed Shohei Ohtani to an unprecedented 10-year, $700 million contract (with an astonishing $680 million of it deferred), and that triggered a wild string of follow-up additions.
They acquired Tyler Glasnow, arguably the best starting pitcher on the trade market, then signed him to a five-year, $136.56 million extension. They signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Japan’s most accomplished pitcher, for $325 million. They added Teoscar Hernandez, free agency’s best corner-outfield bat, for $23.5 million. And they brought back the likes of Jason Heyward, Ryan Brasier, and of course, Clayton Kershaw. What does it all mean for the Dodgers? It means they had better win the World Series.
How it will shape the 2024 season: Los Angeles, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts put it, is now “the epicenter of sports and baseball.” Their spring training, packed to the gills with fans and media on a daily basis, merely offered a taste. The Dodgers will have the proverbial target on their backs this season, even more so than ever before, and Dodgers officials have accepted that they’ll have to take on the villain role whenever they go into opposing ballparks. Perhaps Mookie Betts said it best: Every game against the 2024 Dodgers will qualify as their opponents’ “World Series.” It’s hyperbolic, certainly, but not by much.
Dominoes: The Dodgers added the two best free agents — by a pretty significant margin — in a span of 12 days. And teams like the Giants, Mets, Yankees, Cubs and Blue Jays — in on Ohtani or Yamamoto or both — were left scrambling. At a time when some key big-market clubs were cutting costs and some of the best free agents were notably flawed, the Dodgers’ dominance might have also helped trigger a lull in the offseason.
Bet you didn’t expect to see the Royals on here
Date of deal: Dec. 15 — Wacha, Renfroe join Royals
What it means for the Royals: They are trying. The Royals lost 106 games last season and own a bottom-10 minor league system. That’s not a great combination. And yet they spent more in free agency than any other American League team, adding a number of midlevel veterans during the offseason. That list includes pitchers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton, Will Smith and hitters Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola, all via free agency. They also traded for relievers Nick Anderson and John Schreiber, as well as the injured Kyle Wright for a future rotation spot.
That’s a bold offseason for a bottom-feeding club. A cynic might say the team’s effort to lock down a new ballpark development might have played a part in the aggression. An optimist might note that in raising the floor of the roster with the new veterans, Kansas City at least has a shot at reaching .500 which, in the AL Central, is contention. The Royals are the one team in its division that took such an aggressive short-term stance.
How it will shape the 2024 season: All of the newcomers are capable of being contributors on a good team. Even as a group, it isn’t the kind of collection that’s going to carry a team to 90 wins. The Royals must make real improvement at the minor league level but they also need to polish off the development of its key young players in the majors — Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto and Drew Waters. That is where any true upside to this roster is found. If that happens, and Bobby Witt Jr. turns his last two months of 2023 into a full season of stardom, the Royals could be a lot more interesting this season.
Dominoes: For all the praise the Royals have earned for their offseason splurge — and they deserve it — Kansas City remains a postseason long shot. They did, after all, lose 106 games last season. But if the Royals were to manage a surprise run to the AL Central title, the lead execs who tore down (like the White Sox) or took measured approaches to the offseason (Twins, Guardians, Tigers) will have a lot to answer for in their cities. — Doolittle
Braves upgrade rotation in unexpected winter blockbuster
Date of the deal: Dec. 30 — Braves acquire Sale in trade with Red Sox
What it means for the Braves and Red Sox: Since closing out Boston’s 2018 World Series title with a three-strikeout ninth inning and then signing a huge extension with the Red Sox the following spring, Chris Sale had made just 56 starts — missing time to a litany of injuries including Tommy John surgery and shoulder inflammation that cost him two months in 2023. When healthy, however, he was solidly effective in his 20 starts last season: 4.30 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 125 strikeouts in 102⅔ innings. His stuff still plays as more than a back-end starter.
Entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, the Red Sox had perhaps tired of Sale’s injuries and decided to cash in on his remaining trade value. They needed a second baseman and flipped Sale in late December for Vaughn Grissom, a promising young infielder blocked in Atlanta by Ozzie Albies.
How it will shape the 2024 season: With the additions of Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves now have more depth to line up behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. Assuming they once again run away with the division title, they can carefully monitor Sale’s innings and have him ready for October — which, after all, is what this trade was all about for them. For the Red Sox, Grissom will get a chance to play regularly for the first time. (Although he’s likely to miss Opening Day with a groin injury.) He hit .330 in Triple-A with nearly as many walks as strikeouts and while there probably isn’t much more than 15-homer upside, the Red Sox can hope for much better production up the middle with him and a full season of Trevor Story at shortstop.
Dominoes: A few days after this trade, the Red Sox signed Lucas Giolito to fill Sale’s slot in the rotation. Unfortunately, Giolito injured his elbow early in spring training and underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the season. Will there be a domino to the domino? It all depends on whether the Red Sox — intent on a much lower payroll this season — will find any money to sign one of the free-agent starters still out there. — Schoenfield
Astros improve their bullpen with one thing in mind: October
Date of the deal: Jan. 19 — Hader, Astros agree to record $95 million contract
What it means for the Astros: One of the more unappreciated facets of Houston’s ongoing run of success has been its ability to maintain deep bullpens with back ends dynamic enough to stand out in the postseason. This winter, Houston lost Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton in free agency and Kendall Graveman to injury. Even so, Houston still features experienced power arms, a quality veteran closer in Ryan Pressly and a number of interesting internal options. Adding depth seemed like a likely path but instead Houston splurged for the best reliever on the free agent market in Josh Hader on a five-year contract. The hierarchy of Joe Espada’s first bullpen as a big-league manager was shuffled for the next half-decade.
How it will shape the 2024 season: The vision is not hard to conjure: Hader flinging a high, hard one past a failing NL batter for the last out of the 2024 World Series. That’s what this move is all about. Pressly’s presence means that Espada won’t have to overextend Hader if high-leverage ninth innings begin to pile up. Because, as with so many moves made by elite clubs, the motivation for this acquisition is all about how it works in October — and early November.
Dominoes: Two of the Astros’ primary contenders in the AL needed closers, or at least back-end bullpen help. If and when Houston clashes with Texas and Baltimore this fall in the playoffs, the fact that Houston ended up with Hader — and those teams did not — will be a leading storyline. — Doolittle
The Orioles land their ace in deal with Brewers
Date of the deal: Feb. 1 — Orioles acquire former Cy Young-winner Burnes
What it means for the Orioles and Brewers: The Orioles coveted an ace to help them take the next step in their resurgence coming off a 101-win season. The Brewers sought to flip Corbin Burnes before he inevitably left in free agency next winter. Both got what they wanted in a Feb. 1 trade that sent Burnes to Baltimore for infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and a draft pick.
Burnes gives the Orioles a premier starting pitcher to complement their deep core of young position players. The move came after the Orioles addressed the back end of their staff by signing veteran Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13 million deal with a club option for 2025. The Brewers, meanwhile, are not afraid to trade a star in his prime. They did it with Hader at the 2022 trade deadline before fumbling away a division lead down the stretch. A year later, they were back in the postseason.
How it will shape the 2024 season: Trading Burnes is a blow, but Milwaukee made the move expecting to still compete for a playoff spot again. Those chances took another hit last week when All-Star closer Devin Williams was ruled out for three months with two stress fractures in his back. It’ll be an uphill climb even in a relatively weak NL Central. As for the Orioles, they just might be the favorites to repeat as AL East champions — especially now that Gerrit Cole, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, has been ruled out for at least a month because of an elbow injury. With Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 prospect in the sport, expected to join the likes of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson at some point this season, the future — 2024 and beyond — is bright in Baltimore.
Dominoes: The move left several teams still seeking starting pitching help — the Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Red Sox and Padres among them — and just one obvious trade candidate: Dylan Cease. Of course, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were (and in Montgomery’s case still is) free agents without homes. The game of musical chairs wasn’t over. — Castillo
Bellinger finally returns to the Cubs
Date of the deal: Feb. 25 — Bellinger, Cubs agree to three-year deal, with opt outs
What it means for the Cubs: After winning NL MVP in 2019, Bellinger had been one of the worst stretches in the majors across the 2021-22 seasons. That’s not stretching the facts: His adjusted OPS was dead last among players with at least 900 plate appearances over those two seasons. The Dodgers non-tendered him and the Cubs signed him to a one-year deal. Bellinger tweaked his swing mechanics, focused on putting the ball in play with two strikes, and cut his strikeout rate from 27.3% to 15.7%. Better numbers followed as he hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs.
He was the best offensive player on the Cubs and produced 4.4 WAR in 130 games … but the huge nine-figure offers failed to arrive during free agency, with teams not completely sold on Bellinger’s performance. In late February, Bellinger went back to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal that includes opt-outs after both 2024 and 2025.
How it will shape the 2024 season: Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as the Cubs’ center fielder of the future. He is viewed as a Kevin Kiermaier-type 80 defender, but he’ll start the season in the minors. Bellinger should be the regular center fielder, perhaps with a little time at first base mixed in. If Crow-Armstrong’s bat develops, Bellinger could slide to first or right field thanks to his defensive versatility. More importantly: If Bellinger hits like he did in 2023, the Cubs’ offense should remain stable (they ranked third in the NL in runs) and they should contend for the NL Central title. If he falters, the Cubs won’t be a lock for the postseason — and they’ll be stuck with Bellinger for the season at a high salary.
Dominoes: This was the big move the Cubs needed to make, as they had gone through a relatively quiet offseason, replacing Marcus Stroman with Shoto Imanaga, trading for bat-first infielder Michael Busch and signing reliever Hector Neris.
Though it took well into spring training, Bellinger was the first of the five remaining big-name Scott Boras clients to sign and Matt Chapman soon took a similar three-year deal with opt-outs with the Giants. Bottom line: Boras overplayed his hand this offseason as teams just saw too much risk in these players to offer long-term deals. — Schoenfield
Chapman signing caps Giants’ sneaky-big offseason
Date of the deal: March 2 — Chapman, Giants agree to three-year deal with opt outs
What it means for the Giants: It’s no secret that the Giants had been clamoring for a star. They struck out on Aaron Judge, rescinded their offer to Carlos Correa and came up short on Shohei Ohtani. And though Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman aren’t at the same level as those three, their presence will greatly bolster a lineup and a defense that desperately needs it. Lee, signed for $113 million over six years, settles into center field and should be an effective leadoff hitter. Chapman, one of the best defensive third basemen in the sport, will significantly improve a defense that committed the most errors in baseball last season. Add in Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks and Robbie Ray, the latter of whom could bolster their rotation in the second half, and the Giants actually had a solid offseason. They needed it.
How it will shape the 2024 season: The Chapman signing essentially made the NL West a four-team race. Yes, the Dodgers, division champions 10 out of the last 11 years, are head and shoulders above everybody else, but the Giants joined the D-backs and the San Diego Padres as legitimate playoff teams. Go ahead, try to come up with the three wild-card teams in the NL. It’s not so easy.
Dominoes: Chapman agreed to join the Giants on the first day of March, following the Bellinger blueprint by signing a three-year, $54 million deal that allowed him to opt out of every season. It was symbolic of what had been a trying offseason for some of the sport’s best players. And, of course, it didn’t end with him. — Gonzalez
The Padres trade for an ace (because of course they do)
Date of the deal: March 13 — Padres acquire Cease in deal with White Sox
What it means for the Padres and White Sox: The Padres have been trying to thread a needle all winter. On one hand, after the long-term payroll prospectus became bloated by the organization’s aggression over the last couple of years, San Diego needed to streamline its payroll. On the other hand, the Padres can’t exactly punt on the season, not when stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are still around. Losing NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell to free agency was a major hit but it’s one now somewhat mitigated. Cease joins Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in a reconstituted rotation big three for the Padres.
As for the White Sox, this has been the strategy going back to last year’s deadline, even before new lead exec Chris Getz took over: Flood the system with quantity. In the short run, Chicago looks like a surefire draft lottery team but perhaps this had to be done. The process may not be over, either.
How it will shape the 2024 season: This doesn’t change the landscape much in the AL. In the NL, it rearranges the league’s wide middle. You have the Dodgers and Braves on top, and the Rockies and Nationals at the bottom. As for the 11 teams in between, there is no order of finish that would qualify as a major surprise. However, adding Cease nudges the Padres to the upper end of that group in terms of baseline expectation. And, perhaps, it buoys the spirits of a fan base that has dealt with a lot of disappointment since last season began.
Dominoes: In the days before Cease was finally traded, the rumor mill was spinning with whispers about teams the White Sox were talking to. Cease is good enough to help any rotation and a number of teams that sure could have used him didn’t get him. That list might be topped by the entire AL East. That Cease moved when he did was probably music to the ears of super agent Scott Boras as he continues his quest to find new (or old) homes for Montgomery and Snell. — Doolittle
And the Boras Two still remain
Date of the deal(s): ????????
What it means for MLB: As of Monday night, we mean a different Boras Two — Jordan Montgomery and J.D. Martinez — after Blake Snell agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants (with a player opt-out after 2024). Snell’s deal certainly falls short of what other Cy Young winners or contenders received in free agency in recent seasons — just a year ago, Carlos Rodon, another risky lefty with concerns about his durability, signed with the Yankees for six years and $162 million. Snell couldn’t even get half that, although the opt-out will give him another chance to hit free agency and angle for a big deal if he pitches well again.
Bottom line: This offseason, we’ve seen a little more risk aversion from teams. Boras prefers to label it non-competitive behavior from owners, but consider what happened to the Texas Rangers last season: They gave the big deal to Jacob deGrom, he blew out his elbow after six starts — and the Rangers won the World Series anyway. Why make those long-term, high-risk investments if you can win a World Series without them?
How it will shape the 2024 season: The Giants get Snell on a relative bargain and can add him to a rotation with Logan Webb, the Cy Young runner-up to Snell. It remains unlikely that the Giants can keep up with the all-powerful Dodgers in the NL West, but a playoff rotation with Webb and Snell could do some damage — and even knock out some superior teams in the postseason if the Giants get in.
Dominoes: We’ve already seen the domino effect with Bellinger and Chapman having to take short-term deals and betting on themselves to produce with opt-out clauses. The superstars like Ohtani — or Aaron Judge last offseason or Juan Soto next winter — will always manage to bag those long contracts. But while Yamamoto and Aaron Nola received long-term deals this offseason, it’s possible we’ll start seeing fewer of those types of contracts for pitchers given the inherent injury risks. — Schoenfield
You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.
We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.
Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson
1. Penn State: Ryan Day
Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter
Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale
3. Texas: Oklahoma
In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson
4. Georgia: Alabama
The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low
5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg
6. LSU: Daytime home games
LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low
7. Notre Dame: Miami
No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg
8. Oregon: Ohio State
Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama: Vanderbilt
Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low
10. BYU: Utah
It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly
Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg
12. Arizona State: Regression
Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly
13. South Carolina: LSU
South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale
14. Iowa State: Kansas State
There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly
15. SMU: TCU
SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson
16. Texas Tech: Baylor
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson
17. Indiana: UCLA
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg
18. Kansas State: Iowa State
As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly
19. Florida: Georgia
Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson
20. Michigan: Ohio State
Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter
21. Miami: Syracuse
Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson
22. Louisville: Kentucky
In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale
23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson
24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State
Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low
25. Oklahoma: Texas
In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson
It’s posturing season. Major League Baseball’s trade deadline goes through the same mechanics every year. Following June calls to indicate interest in players, early-to-mid-July brings out the first offers, which are inevitably imbalanced toward the teams willing to move players and, accordingly, holding all the leverage.
It’s the reason trades before the All-Star break are rare — and also a reminder that just because a match isn’t there now, it doesn’t preclude one going forward. So many elements play into a deadline (the keenness of teams to send away quality players, the willingness of contenders to make a move over the objection of their analytical model, the standings, recent performance and dozens of others) that to link team and player in a potential deal is a fool’s errand.
Well, consider this slightly foolish. Needs are needs, and even the best teams in baseball have them. Who would be the best players to fill them? This exercise endeavors to answer that.
Below are the 16 teams in MLB with winning records. Certainly a cadre of under-.500 teams — the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks chief among them — could work their way into the conversation despite their slow starts. For now, though, these are the best teams baseball has to offer, and for each we found a fit among available players that makes too much sense not to pursue.
Teams are listed in order of record by league.
American League
59-35, first place, AL Central
Weakness: Swing-and-miss relievers
Best match: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians) and Griffin Jax (Minnesota Twins) are the right answers, but the likelihood of Detroit pulling off an in-division deal to get a swing-and-miss reliever is minimal. Which leaves Bednar, who has rebounded from an atrocious 2024 to recapture his form of 2021-23, when he was among the five best relievers in baseball. With a high-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a mean splitter, Bednar’s arsenal would give the Tigers a ninth-inning option beyond Will Vest or Tommy Kahnle.
Beyond the bullpen, the Tigers don’t need much. They can really hit, with eight of their nine regulars sporting slugging percentages of .415 or better. Manager AJ Hinch’s constant tinkering — the most Detroit has used one lineup this year is four times — doesn’t just work, it is an identity the team embraces.
And as much as the Tigers could use capital from their tremendous farm system to add to this team, they don’t necessarily need it. This is the second year of a window that’s bound to last. Securing Bednar’s services for two playoff runs is the sort of incremental step needed to capitalize in a down American League.
55-38, first place, AL West
Weakness: Starting pitching and left-handed hitting
Best match: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are.
So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that’s among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo’s ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo’s peripherals suggest he’s in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo’s nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game — a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game.
54-39, first place, American League East
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once. The 29-year-old is producing the best season of his seven-year career with the Pirates, averaging nearly six innings a start and giving up only seven home runs in 106⅓ innings. The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.
Further, Keller remains under contract for three years at a reasonable $54.5 million, and with starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer free agents after this year and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 season, Toronto covets controllable starting pitching in a market that, at the moment at least, doesn’t offer much.
Pittsburgh could hold onto Keller and march into 2026 with a staff of Keller, Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler and Bailey Falter — easily a top-10 rotation, maybe better — with Hunter Barco not far behind. But the Pirates desperately need bats and while Toronto’s farm system is not teeming with them, the Blue Jays can cobble together enough to make a deal worth Pittsburgh’s while.
51-41, second place, AL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Third baseman and pitching
Best match: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks
This could be Seth Lugo. Or Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. Or any number of players. The Yankees are not going to stop at one player this deadline. For all their strengths — and there are plenty — they have too many weaknesses to take half-measures.
Suárez is an excellent first step. His power is undeniable, a perfect fit in the middle of any lineup. He plays third base, a black hole for New York this season. The Yankees could two-birds-one-stone a deal and get Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly from Arizona, too. But Suárez is the main target, because even if other third-base options exist — Nolan Arenado in St. Louis, Ryan McMahon in Colorado, Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh — they’re owed significant money and are under contract for multiple years. Suárez’s expiring contract would allow the Yankees a trial run, and if he thrives in the Bronx, all they would need to bring him back is cash.
50-43, third place, AL East (second wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
Remember, now, this is the best match, not necessarily the likeliest. Minnesota is notoriously value-conscious in its dealings, and the Twins will put an exceptionally high price on Jax, whom they regard as one of the best relievers in baseball — an opinion shared by most teams. With a fastball that sits at 97 mph and a dastardly slider, he is a setup man in name and a closer in stuff — precisely what the Rays, who are missing Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge, could use.
The Rays aren’t typically the sort of team to overpay for relievers, even ones with two additional years of club control. If not Jax, they could opt for Brock Stewart (Twins), who likewise has a vast array of swing-and-miss stuff — and two more years of team control as well.
48-44, second place, AL West (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Corner infielder
Best match: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
Though the Mariners are managing with Donovan Solano and Luke Raley at first base, upgrading to Naylor would transform Seattle’s lineup for the better. Whether it’s slotting him behind J.P. Crawford to ensure Cal Raleigh comes to the plate with more baserunners, or sticking him in between Raleigh and Randy Arozarena to do the cleaning up himself, Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.
Pairing him with Eugenio Suárez would plug both of Seattle’s holes, and certainly the Mariners have the prospect capital to pull off the double. Considering the state of their pitching — a tremendous rotation and a Gabe Speier–Matt Brash–Andrés Muñoz endgame — the Mariners need only a depth reliever to feel comfortable. Upgrading the lineup is the distinct priority over the next three weeks, and executives expect Seattle to act aggressively.
49-45, fourth place, AL East (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Red Sox relievers walk too many hitters and don’t strike out enough. Take away Aroldis Chapman — the best reliever in the AL this season — and the Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Getting Helsley from St. Louis would give Boston arguably the top setup-closer combination in baseball and go a long way toward supporting a rotation that has been among the game’s best over the past month.
Boston has the makings of a very good team in the second half. Alex Bregman will return soon. Roman Anthony has an OPS of nearly 1.000 over his past 10 games. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in baseball. Carlos Narváez is a gem. Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, even Abraham Toro — everyone is contributing. A reliever or two and another starter would make the Red Sox the sort of contender they envisioned being at the beginning of the season.
National League
56-38, first place, NL West
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
The Dodgers enter every deadline season seeking a major move, and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Durán qualifies. With a fastball that averages over 100 mph, a splinker that sits at 98 and a curveball to keep hitters off balance, Durán is pitching as well as ever. He hasn’t given up a home run this season, and his 1.52 ERA is third in MLB for pitchers with at least 40 innings.
The asking price will be hefty. Durán comes with two more years of team control beyond this season. The Dodgers don’t have time to waste on taking advantage of Shohei Ohtani‘s prime, though, and assembling a team with standouts in all facets is a reasonable goal. For a group threatening to approach a major league record for pitchers used in a season — the Dodgers are at 35, the record is 42 from Seattle in 2019 — adding another wouldn’t in and of itself be a needle-mover. If that one happens to be Durán, the Dodgers could theoretically trot out him, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia to make their bullpen every bit as scary as the rest of their team.
Chicago Cubs
54-38, first place, NL Central
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins
The market for Alcántara might not reflect his résumé. A former Cy Young Award winner, the 29-year-old has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, with an ERA just above 7.22. Some teams — even ones that could desperately use starting pitching — see the remaining two years and $38.3 million on Alcántara’s deal as an impediment to any trade, particularly with Marlins GM Peter Bendix asking for a haul in return.
Whether it’s Alcántara or another starter, the Cubs are a good starter away from having one of the top teams in baseball. Their offense is undeniable. Their defense is magnificent. Their bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Adding a playoff-caliber starter, even if it pushes Chicago past the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, would reward a team that has brought excitement back to the North Side of Chicago.
54-39, first place, National League East
Weakness: Bullpen and outfield
Best match: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
As long as the Phillies are aiming high — and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski — perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland. Maybe it would take Andrew Painter. Maybe Aidan Miller. Maybe Justin Crawford. Regardless, the Phillies’ window is closing, and getting both club control (Clase is under contract through 2028 and Kwan through 2027) and cost certainty (Clase is due $26 million for the next three years and Kwan less than $20 million for two) would make dealing high-end prospects significantly more palatable.
If Cleveland ultimately balks at moving Clase, it doesn’t change the imperative: Philadelphia needs to address its weaknesses. This bullpen is not suited to win a playoff series, much less the World Series. The consequence of bad relief pitching manifested itself in the postseason last year, when the New York Mets filleted Phillies relievers for 17 runs in 12⅔ innings. No other bullpen gave up more than nine runs in the division series. Clase (or Jhoan Durán or any shutdown reliever, really) is just a start. An on-the-fly overhaul is what this team needs — and deserves.
53-39, second place, NL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Mets started 45-24 on the strength of their starting pitching. With a 2.79 ERA that was nearly a quarter-run better than the second-best rotation, they cut the figure of a juggernaut. Since June 13, their starters’ 5.61 ERA is worse than every team in baseball aside from Washington. And if your starters are getting compared to those of the Nationals, something went haywire.
Gallen has looked more like his old self in recent starts, and if his home run rate stabilizes — typically one per nine, it has jumped to 1.6 — alongside a perilously low strand rate normalizing, he can shake off the 5.15 ERA and be a real difference-maker for the Mets before hitting free agency after the season. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t, as a general rule, spend big on pitching. In this case, though, an investment in Gallen makes too much sense for the Mets not to consider.
53-40, second place, NL Central (second wild card)
Weakness: Power
Best match: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
With 88 home runs, the Brewers rank just 21st in MLB. And while that hasn’t impeded their production — they’re eighth in runs scored — another big bat could do their offense wonders. Nobody will mistake the soon-to-be-32-year-old O’Hearn for Aaron Judge, but he punishes right-handed pitching, and in a lineup without any boppers, O’Hearn also could serve as the strong side of a first-base platoon and pick up outfield and DH at-bats.
Milwaukee’s options are fascinating. Jacob Misiorowski‘s arrival has been an unmitigated success and only added to the Brewers’ starting pitching depth. They could easily move a starting pitcher and tap into their deep prospect well for O’Hearn. The add-and-subtract maneuver is risky, sure, but the Brewers have steeled themselves to weather it. The Brewers, as currently constituted, are solid. Better second halves from Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, continued solid pitching and the proper sort of deadline aggressiveness could make them even more.
51-43, second place, NL West (third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants made their big move already, getting the best player who will move this season — designated hitter Rafael Devers — to shore up their offense. Intradivision trades can be trying, but if Buster Posey has shown anything in his first season as president of baseball operations, it’s a willingness to stomach the sorts of deals that would scare off his peers.
Kelly represents a significant upgrade over the Giants’ backend rotation options, as Justin Verlander and Hayden Birdsong are sporting ERAs of 6.27 and 5.73, respectively, since June 1. Whether the Giants are real or simply a function of a bullpen whose core of Camilo Doval, Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, Spencer Bivens and Ryan Walker has given up only 11 home runs in 232⅔ innings remains to be seen. For an organization seeking its first postseason series win in nearly a decade, though, there is never a time as urgent as now.
49-43, third place, NL West (one game behind third wild card)
Weakness: Left field
Best match: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
No player and team have been linked as strongly as Duran and the Padres — and that’s without any knowledge of how the Red Sox intend to handle the deadline. Roman Anthony’s emergence has put Boston in a position to float Duran and Wilyer Abreu in trade discussions, and whether it’s now or over the winter, Boston wants to use its surplus of bats to fill voids elsewhere.
Left field in San Diego is among the biggest voids in the game. The Padres have tried eight players in left this season, and collectively they’re barely have an OPS of over .600. A Duran-Jackson Merrill–Fernando Tatis Jr. outfield would be a factory of dynamism that would be under team control through the end of the 2028 season. The Padres might need to get creative — beyond shortstop Leo De Vries (who’s believed to be off-limits) and catcher Ethan Salas, their farm system is middling — but nobody does creativity like GM A.J. Preller. And whether that means facilitating a deal through a third team or including one of their high-leverage relievers like closer Robert Suárez, San Diego is willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.
49-44, third place, NL Central (1½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Certainly there’s a world in which John Mozeliak’s final deadline as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations is uneventful. The NL is stacked, and for all of the Cardinals’ improvement this season, they remain a flawed team. And yet there’s also a world in which Mozeliak can make this year’s team better and simultaneously set up his successor, Chaim Bloom, with a rotation option for the future.
The Rays don’t have a strong desire to move the 24-year-old Bradley, but with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Joe Boyle all pitching well, and ace Shane McClanahan out on a rehabilitation assignment, Tampa Bay is at least entertaining the idea. Bradley’s stuff has exceeded his performance over his three major league seasons, but the controllable-starting-pitching market is practically empty, and St. Louis’ farm system is replete with high-end catchers, which would fill a vacuum for the Rays
47-46, fourth place, NL Central (3½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Bullpen and big bat
Best match: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
With a sneaky-deep farm system, the Reds could put together the sort of package to convince Cleveland to move Kwan, a two-time All-Star who in his four seasons ranks fifth in wins above replacement among all outfielders, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodríguez. Kwan’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills in left field are elite, and with free agency not beckoning until after the 2027 season, sandwiching him between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz strengthens a Reds lineup that could use an offensive infusion.
If the cost to acquire Kwan is too high, other good options exist, chief among them Marcell Ozuna, the Atlanta slugger whose swing was built for Great American Ball Park. With a rotation that includes All-Star Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns, the Reds are a terrifying postseason opponent. Another bat would buttress the rotation and give Cincinnati an opportunity to turn potential into its first postseason series win in three decades.
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David Schoenfield
Comparing MLB to the NBA is kind of like comparing apples to pomegranates, but the NBA, with its rapid-fire spate of blockbuster trades and signings, certainly has us wishing major league front office executives operated as daringly as their basketball counterparts.
The conservative nature in baseball is understandable. Nobody wants to end up as the general manager who trades Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez and a failed playoff bid.
But every now and then we get a shocking deal. At the MLB trade deadline in 2022, the San Diego Padres gave up five highly rated young players to acquire Juan Soto, who still had two-plus seasons left of team control. Three of those young players — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams — now form the core of the Washington Nationals. And just a few weeks ago came the surprise mid-June trade of Rafael Devers, in only the second year of a 10-year contract, from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants.
Might another similarly entertaining megadeal occur this month ahead of the deadline on July 31? Probably not, but we can dream.
Let’s consider three players who almost certainly won’t be made available for trade this year, but whose names have been kicked around in (quite unlikely) fan trade scenarios. If the right offer did arrive, the player’s organization would have to at least consider making the deal … right?
Call them Godfather offers. Let’s see what it would take to land three star players in 2025.
(All prospect rankings are from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 update from late May.)
Why they’ll probably keep him: He’s arguably the best starter in baseball, perhaps on his way to a Cy Young Award in his first full season. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport — despite playing for the lowly Pirates — and a player you can build not only a pitching staff around but a championship contender. He’s under team control through 2029 and doesn’t even become arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the Pirates are still years away from paying him a fair salary.
But Skenes is a pitcher — and pitchers get hurt. So, if the Pirates are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: New York Mets offer SS/CF Jett Williams (No. 20), RHP Jonah Tong (No. 50), RHP Nolan McLean, IF Ronny Mauricio, OF Carson Benge
Offer No. 2: Los Angeles Dodgers offer C/OF Dalton Rushing (No. 14), OF Josue De Paula (No. 17), IF Alex Freeland, RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Jackson Ferris
Offer No. 3: Detroit Tigers offer OF Max Clark (No. 8), SS Kevin McGonigle (No. 11), RHP Jackson Jobe, IF Colt Keith, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
The one that could get it done: Tigers
A playoff rotation with Skenes and Tarik Skubal? Thank you very much. Reminder: The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.
It will take one of the best farm systems in the sport to acquire Skenes, and Detroit is incredibly well positioned to make this kind of deal, with depth at both the major league and minor league levels, not to mention a payroll with only one expensive long-term commitment in Javier Baez. Two of the top prospects in the sport in Clark and McGonigle headline this trade, with both currently excelling in High-A ball. Clark, a speedy center fielder, has a .429 OBP with more walks than strikeouts, and McGonigle is hitting .373 with a high contact rate and OPS over 1.100. Former top pitching prospect Jobe underwent Tommy John surgery in June and would be a nice inclusion for the Pirates to gamble on.
For the Tigers, the deal wouldn’t even decimate their farm system. They would still have shortstop Bryce Rainer (No. 22), first baseman/catcher Josue Briceno and a slew of solid pitching prospects. For the Pirates, Clark and McGonigle project as solutions at two problem areas in center field (where Oneil Cruz has struggled defensively) and shortstop (stopgap Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the current starter) plus they get a solid major leaguer in Keith and a back-end rotation-type in Gipson-Long.
As much as the Mets could use a staff ace, their system is deeper in pitching prospects, which doesn’t best align with the Pirates’ needs. As the Dodgers’ pitching injuries have piled up again, Skenes could be a match. Rushing is blocked at catcher by Will Smith, and he and De Paula probably have more power upside (De Paula has drawn Yordan Alvarez comparisons) than Clark and McGonigle. The Pirates might, understandably, ask for Roki Sasaki, and that could be the deal-breaker for the Dodgers.
Why they’ll probably keep him: Acuña has been one of the best hitters in the majors since returning in late May from his second ACL surgery and has been the best hitter on a Braves team that is near the bottom of the National League in runs scored. He is signed through 2028 on an incredibly team-friendly deal that pays him just $17 million per season — making it one of the best contracts in the sport for a team. At just 27 years old, he remains in the middle of his prime and is one of the sport’s most dynamic talents.
But Acuña’s knees are a long-term concern, Atlanta lacks depth in both the lineup and pitching staff, and this looks like a lost season.
So, if the Braves are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers offer SS Jesus Made (No. 5), SS Luis Pena, OF Sal Frelick, RHP Logan Henderson, RHP Abner Uribe
Offer No. 2: Seattle Mariners offer SS Colt Emerson (No. 10), RHP Bryce Miller, C Harry Ford, OF Lazaro Montes, LHP Brandyn Garcia
Offer No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays offer SS Carson Willliams (No. 27), RHP Shane Baz, OF Theo Gillen, RHP Yoniel Curet, RHP Brody Hopkins
The one that could get it done: Mariners
The Mariners have never played in a World Series. Their right-field production is among the worst in the majors. Oh, and they have a loaded farm system with nine prospects on MLB.com’s recently updated top 100, more than any other team. On that list, Emerson came in at No. 18, Montes at No. 29 and Ford at No. 56. Miller’s value is temporarily down since he’s out because of right elbow inflammation, but he had a 2.94 ERA for the Mariners in 2024 and could give the Braves a front-line starter if healthy.
Ford might not be a perfect fit for Atlanta with Drake Baldwin (plus Sean Murphy) at catcher, but Cal Raleigh blocks Ford in Seattle. The Braves could trade Murphy in the offseason, and Ford does have the athleticism to play some outfield — although he has played exclusively behind the plate at Triple-A, where he’s hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. Emerson is a favorite of scouts with his hard contact and ability to play shortstop, although he’s still learning to lift the ball more, while Montes recently earned a promotion to Double-A after slugging .572 in High-A at age 20.
For the Mariners, Acuña would fit nicely at the top of the order or hitting second in front of Raleigh, allowing them to slide Julio Rodriguez lower in the lineup — and maybe Acuña’s presence would also help take some pressure off Rodriguez. Most importantly: Acuña’s salary is a realistic fit even for the Mariners, who don’t like to spend. And despite giving up three excellent prospects and a young starting pitcher, their farm system would remain strong. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.
Milwaukee’s offer is enticing with two premium hitting prospects in Made and Pena, but it’s a riskier package as the 18-year-olds are a long way from the majors and neither is a lock to stick at shortstop, a big offensive hole in the Braves’ lineup. Williams would be the key to the Tampa Bay trade, but his sky-high strikeout rate at Triple-A has caused him to drop in the rankings and limits his offensive upside.
Why they’ll probably keep him: The Twins are under .500, but that doesn’t mean they’re out of the playoff race. Buxton has been their best player and best hitter as he’s on pace for a career high in WAR. Though he hasn’t reached the heights of Acuña at Acuña’s best, Buxton’s contract is also team friendly, as he’s signed through 2028 and making $15.1 million per season. He’s 31 years old but is still one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.
But Buxton, while healthy in 2025, is frequently sidelined by injuries. So, if the Twins are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter (No. 23) and OF Justin Crawford
Offer No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder (No. 48), RHP Chase Petty (No. 49) and 3B Sal Stewart
Offer No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields
The one that could get it done: Phillies
The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati’s case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A.
Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who’s having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he’s the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team’s overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber. Adding Buxton adds more pop to the middle of the order.
Painter gives the Twins a potential ace, and they have top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez ready to take over in center field anyway. The 21-year-old Crawford is a divisive prospect (he’s No. 49 in the MLB.com rankings) because while he’s hitting for a high average at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he hits the ball on the ground too much and has only two home runs. Still, there’s a chance he produces a good OBP and plus defense with his speed.
The Royals’ challenge trade with Ragans is intriguing but risky for Minnesota, given he’s on the injured list right now because of a rotator cuff strain. Plus, intradivision trades are hard to pull off. The Twins would want Chase Burns from the Reds, but that’s probably a nonstarter for Cincinnati.
Will we get some surprise spicy deals this trade deadline? Will it just be the usual list of free-agents-to-be and relief pitchers? In a season that remains so wide open, the time might be right for some outside-the-box movement.
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