The army must “prepare genuinely for war” to credibly deter threats, a group of former defence and security chiefs have signalled.
Offering advice to whoever is prime minister and defence secretary after the election, a report by the New Bletchley Network – which drew on ideas from a discussion between a panel of experts – said a “hollowing out” of the regular army and reserves over the years must be reversed, warning the size of the force may already be beneath “national critical mass”.
Among those who contributed to the discussion were Lord Mark Sedwill, a former cabinet secretary and national security adviser, Lord George Robertson, a former head of NATO and Labour defence secretary, and General Lord David Richards, a former head of the armed forces.
The intervention comes amid growing concern about a failure by Rishi Sunak’s government to increase defence spending in the Spring Budget, despite Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warning the UK was in a “pre-war world” and Russia still waging a full-scale war in Ukraine.
Focusing on the UK army, the report, published on Wednesday, warned “deterrence is based on credibility”.
“British Army credibility has been weakened by 20 plus years of hollowing out and diminished fighting power. Army morale is fragile,” it added.
The brief paper highlighted a “serious wake-up signal” from a senior figure in NATO who warned the British Army is no longer a top-level, or “Tier 1”, fighting force.
The report said: “To be credible in deterrence terms we need to prepare genuinely for war and communicate this to potential foes, NATO and allies, and particularly to the British public.”
It called for a “New Model Army” – widely respected and “ready to go to war”.
“We must signal to adversaries and potential adversaries the fact that we are strong and want to get stronger whilst at the same time having no interest in attacking or subverting any non-aggressive city or country,” the report said.
It stressed the importance of military mass – which has been allowed to shrink after repeated cost-saving cuts.
“Our land forces and reserves could be said to have fallen far below national critical mass. This must be reversed and the relationship between size and technology must be better understood and articulated.”
Whitehall urged to be ‘war-ready’
The report also championed a total reset of how the armed forces buy weapons and their supply chains to secure better value for money.
It urged for a new command structure in Whitehall to be “war-ready” and recommended the creation of a task force – like the one that delivered the COVID-19 vaccine – to drive change.
“We have to be bold and make difficult, sometimes unpopular, decisions if we are to deliver credible fighting power within realistic budgets and to meet the time imperative.”
Other former senior officials who took part in the discussion on 27 February that generated the report included General Sir Richard Barrons, former Commander Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Shirreff, former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, and Brigadier Nigel Hall, a former army officer who founded the New Bletchley Network.
The UK will not to take back asylum seekers who cross the border into Ireland “until the EU accepts that we can send them back to France”, according to a government source.
The comment comes amid an escalating row between Dublin and Westminster over the Irish government’s plans for new legislation to enable asylum seekers who cross the border from Northern Ireland to be sent back to the UK.
Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week that more than 80% of recent arrivals in Ireland came via the land border with Northern Ireland.
Ireland’s deputy prime minister and foreign secretary Micheal Martin also said the threat of deportation to Rwandawas causing “fearful” migrants to head for Ireland instead of the UK.
As the row deepened on Sunday night, Irish prime minister Simon Harris, vowed the country would “not provide a loophole for anybody else’s migration challenges”.
He also said that “close” collaboration and cooperation between the British and Irish governments was “not just desirable, but absolutely essential”.
However, a UK government source said any bid to return asylum seekers from Ireland would be rejected unless France agreed to do the same with boats crossing the Channel.
“We won’t accept any asylum returns from the EU via Ireland until the EU accepts that we can send them back to France,” the source said.
Meanwhile, The Guardian reported on Sunday night that a major operation by the Home Office to detain migrants across the UK in preparation for their deportation to Rwanda had begun “weeks earlier than expected”. The report has not been verified by Sky News.
Ministers from both countries are set to meet in London on Monday as part of a pre-planned conference, involving Mr Martin and the Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris.
However, a meeting between the UK home secretary, James Cleverly, and Ms McEntee, planned for Monday, was postponed late on Sunday night.
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Mr Martin said the UK government’s Rwanda policy – which became law last week after much legal and political back-and-forth – had already impacted Ireland because people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.
“Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have,” the former taoiseach told The Daily Telegraph.
He also said the comments from Irish politicians showed that illegal migration was a “global challenge”.
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Rwanda scheme is working, says PM
“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe [they] will follow where the UK has led,” he said.
He has asked his justice minister to “bring proposals to cabinet to amend existing law regarding the designation of safe ‘third countries’ and allowing the return of inadmissible international protection applicants to the UK”.
Irish ministers are expected to discuss emergency legislation on Tuesday.
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Ireland plans to return migrants to UK
The legislation is being drafted in response to an Irish High Court ruling that found Ireland designating the UK as a “safe third country” for returning asylum seekers, in the context of the Rwanda plan, is contrary to EU law.
Ms McEntee said she would seek government approval for the legislation to be “rapidly drafted so that the UK can again be designated as a safe country for returns”.
“My department has been working on this as a priority since last month’s High Court judgment and I intend that returns to the UK will recommence once the law is enacted,” she added.
Detective Superintendent Lewis Hughes said they were looking at four crime scenes in Salford and the Greater Manchester area.
The human remains discovered over the last two days were found at Salford’s Blackleach Reservoir and Linnyshaw Colliery Wood.
Officers had already identified the two scenes before the remains were found and were “on route to the Colliery Wood” when a member of the public called to say they had found a package, said Det Supt Hughes.
Police officers found the other remains at the reservoir today while searching the area.
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“We are very confident it is the same victim,” Det Supt Hughes added.
The victim is believed to have died in late March.
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Police are searching a warehouse in Bury where “items were stored after this incident without the knowledge of occupants of that warehouse,” said Det Supt Hughes.
They’re also searching a house in Winton where the victim “was believed to have lived with the two men in custody”.
Two men, aged 42 and 68, from Salford, who are believed to be known to each other, were arrested on suspicion of murder on 25 April, GMP said, after officers trawled through hundreds of hours of CCTV footage.
The 42-year-old was arrested after officers stormed a bus in Eccles Old Road around midday, the force said.
The other man was later arrested at an address in Worsley Road.
A 20-year-old man previously arrested on suspicion of murder was later released on bail pending further inquiries.
“It is too soon to rule out [looking for other suspects] but we’re confident at this time that we have the right two suspects in custody,” said Det Supt Hughes.
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Detectives are still appealing the public for any information related to the crime and want to hear from witnesses, including dog walkers, who were in the area between 6am and 6pm on the day a passer-by made the original grim discovery.
More than 100 officers searched the Kersal Dale area for 12 days looking for evidence, working with an underwater search team and dogs before lifting the crime scene on 17 April.
The number of migrants that have crossed the Channel in small boats during the first four months of the year is at its highest ever level.
Some 7,167 people have arrived on UK shores after travelling by small boat from the continent between 1 January to 27 April, with 902 entering just this past week
This compares to 5,745 for the same period last year. The previous record was 6,691 in 2022.
The figures come after Rishi Sunak has staked much of his political future on getting the number of migrant boat crossings down.
On Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips programme he said migrants travelling to Ireland after arriving in the UK on small boats was a sign the Rwanda scheme was already working as a deterrent.
“People are worried about coming here and that demonstrates exactly what I’m saying,” he told Sky News.
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“If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay there, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”
However, the news that migrants are crossing from Northern Ireland into the Republic has sparked an outcry in the country, and prompted the government in Dublin to announce they are planning emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to Britain.
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More than 80% of recent arrivals in the republic came via the land border with Northern Ireland, Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week.
Stopping the boats was one of the government’s five priorities set out by the prime minister after he took office in 2023.
The latest figures have been seized upon by Labour, with shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock saying: “This is the blunt reality behind all of Rishi Sunak’s empty boasts: more people have arrived by small boats so far this year than ever before and more people are having to be rescued.
“What will it take for Rishi Sunak to wake up and realise that his plan is not working?
“We desperately need a Labour government in place to get a grip of this issue.
“Our plan would strengthen Britain’s border security, crush the smuggling gangs, clear the asylum backlog, end hotel use, and set up a new returns and enforcement unit so those with no right to be in the UK are swiftly returned.”