NHL playoff watch: Predicting the Stars’ perfect postseason path
-
Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.com
This space is typically used to set up matchups on the evening’s NHL schedule that will have an impact on the playoff races, and there’s been great fodder this season due to the number of teams still fighting for those spots (particularly in the East). But with an extraordinarily light slate tonight, let’s take a look a bit further down the road for one of the teams in action.
The Dallas Stars are among the handful of clubs for which Stathletes projects a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. Put another way, it would take an almost-unprecedented collapse for them to miss the postseason. Some chose them as their preseason Stanley Cup favorite this season, and the matchups will matter in their quest to live up to those expectations.
Within the mighty Central Division, the Stars are projected for 108.7 standings points, in third behind the Colorado Avalanche (109.6) and Winnipeg Jets (109.9). So yeah, it’s close. But if those projections hold, it will be a first-round matchup against the Avs for Dallas. The bad news for Dallas is that Colorado has won all three games the clubs have played this season by a cumulative score of 16-8; the good (or at least, optimistic) news is that all three were in the pre-Chris Tanev era. The final matchup in their regular-season series is April 7 (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
What if Colorado gets the Central’s No. 1 seed, and Winnipeg is Dallas’ first-round opponent? The scenario is almost exactly reversed, as the Stars have won all three matchups against the Jets by a cumulative score of 9-3. The final game for these two is April 11 (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).
If the Stars go on a heater and win the division, they’ll take on one of the West wild cards, most likely the Nashville Predators (projected for 98.8 points), Vegas Golden Knights (97.9) or Los Angeles Kings (97.7). Among those three, the Stars’ most desirable opponent based on past results is the Kings, as Dallas has won all three matchups this season (by a cumulative score of 13-3). The Stars have split the four games against the Predators, and they’ve lost all three to the Golden Knights — although there are two caveats for the Vegas results:
-
One of the losses was in overtime, another in a shootout.
-
The most recent of the three games was Dec. 9, and much has changed since then.
So the ideal scenario for the first two rounds is the Stars winning the Central and taking on the Kings, followed by a second-round series against the Jets (or drawing Winnipeg in the first and L.A. in the second). The charge up the standings continues tonight with a game against the Arizona Coyotes (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).
As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Detroit Red Wings
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Wednesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (TNT)
Tuesday’s scoreboard
Boston Bruins 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
New Jersey Devils 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 2
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 1
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Nashville Predators 8, San Jose Sharks 2
Edmonton Oilers 3, Montreal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Minnesota Wild 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Los Angeles Kings 6, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 19.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 8.2%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 13
Metropolitan Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 52.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 61.6%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 49%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6.8%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ DAL Friday)
Playoff chances: 5.7%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ COL (Friday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8
Central Division
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 111
Next game: s. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. ARI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 100
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ LA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 16.7%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.8%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 74
Next game: @ DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 88.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 90.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3.6%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 58
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 15
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 27
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
Tyler Johnson has announced his retirement after playing 13 NHL seasons and winning the Stanley Cup twice with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Johnson called it a career in a lengthy message posted on social media Monday. Johnson had battled injuries in recent years and is set to turn 35 on July 29.
“As a short kid from a small town, I saw my chances of playing in the NHL as very slim,” Johnson wrote on Instagram. “But my family — my parents, Ken and Debbie, and my grandparents — believed in me when doubt clouded my mind. Their unwavering faith turned that dream into reality.”
Listed at 5-foot-8 and 191 pounds, Johnson won at just about ever level, capturing the Western Hockey League and Memorial Cup championships in 2008 with his hometown Spokane Chiefs and the Calder Cup championship with Norfolk of the American Hockey League in 2012.
The NHL brought more success, as he skated in 863 regular-season and playoff games since debuting in the league in 2013, putting up 498 points. Johnson was part of the Lightning’s core when they reached the final in 2015 and helped them hoist the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21.
Johnson finished with Chicago, playing three seasons with the Blackhawks, and Boston, signing with the Bruins early last season following his training camp tryout.
“After a lifetime devoted to hockey, I’m ready for what’s next,” Johnson said. “This moment is bittersweet, but I leave the game with no regrets.”
SALT LAKE CITY — The Utah Mammoth re-signed center Jack McBain to a five-year contract worth $21.25 million on Monday.
McBain will count $4.25 million against the salary cap through the 2029-30 NHL season, which was announced a little more than 24 hours since the team elected salary arbitration with the restricted free agent forward.
“He is a big, strong, physical player who competes hard on a nightly basis and brings a gritty toughness to our group,” general manager Bill Armstrong said. “Jack is an important part of the championship-caliber team we are building, and we look forward to having him back on our roster for the foreseeable future.”
McBain, 25, is coming off setting a career high with 27 points and playing all 82 games. He was one of six players to skate in every game of the organization’s first season in Salt Lake City.
“Jack’s versatility as a player, his care for his teammates and his demonstrated willingness to do whatever it takes to win, are all critical elements to our future team success,” president of hockey operations Chris Armstrong said.
McBain has 82 points in 241 games with the franchise, which moved to Utah from Arizona. Since debuting in April 2022, he ranks third in the league with 832 hits.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike