NHL playoff watch: Predicting the Stars’ perfect postseason path
-
Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.com
This space is typically used to set up matchups on the evening’s NHL schedule that will have an impact on the playoff races, and there’s been great fodder this season due to the number of teams still fighting for those spots (particularly in the East). But with an extraordinarily light slate tonight, let’s take a look a bit further down the road for one of the teams in action.
The Dallas Stars are among the handful of clubs for which Stathletes projects a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. Put another way, it would take an almost-unprecedented collapse for them to miss the postseason. Some chose them as their preseason Stanley Cup favorite this season, and the matchups will matter in their quest to live up to those expectations.
Within the mighty Central Division, the Stars are projected for 108.7 standings points, in third behind the Colorado Avalanche (109.6) and Winnipeg Jets (109.9). So yeah, it’s close. But if those projections hold, it will be a first-round matchup against the Avs for Dallas. The bad news for Dallas is that Colorado has won all three games the clubs have played this season by a cumulative score of 16-8; the good (or at least, optimistic) news is that all three were in the pre-Chris Tanev era. The final matchup in their regular-season series is April 7 (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
What if Colorado gets the Central’s No. 1 seed, and Winnipeg is Dallas’ first-round opponent? The scenario is almost exactly reversed, as the Stars have won all three matchups against the Jets by a cumulative score of 9-3. The final game for these two is April 11 (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).
If the Stars go on a heater and win the division, they’ll take on one of the West wild cards, most likely the Nashville Predators (projected for 98.8 points), Vegas Golden Knights (97.9) or Los Angeles Kings (97.7). Among those three, the Stars’ most desirable opponent based on past results is the Kings, as Dallas has won all three matchups this season (by a cumulative score of 13-3). The Stars have split the four games against the Predators, and they’ve lost all three to the Golden Knights — although there are two caveats for the Vegas results:
-
One of the losses was in overtime, another in a shootout.
-
The most recent of the three games was Dec. 9, and much has changed since then.
So the ideal scenario for the first two rounds is the Stars winning the Central and taking on the Kings, followed by a second-round series against the Jets (or drawing Winnipeg in the first and L.A. in the second). The charge up the standings continues tonight with a game against the Arizona Coyotes (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).
As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Detroit Red Wings
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Wednesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (TNT)
Tuesday’s scoreboard
Boston Bruins 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
New Jersey Devils 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 2
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 1
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Nashville Predators 8, San Jose Sharks 2
Edmonton Oilers 3, Montreal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Minnesota Wild 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Los Angeles Kings 6, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 19.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 8.2%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 13
Metropolitan Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 52.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 61.6%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 49%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6.8%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ DAL Friday)
Playoff chances: 5.7%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ COL (Friday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8
Central Division
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 111
Next game: s. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. ARI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 100
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ LA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 16.7%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.8%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 74
Next game: @ DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 88.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 90.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3.6%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 58
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 15
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 27
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
-
Daniel Oyefusi
FRISCO, Texas — Former Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders said Saturday he is unsure if he will throw at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis next month.
Sanders is attending the East-West Shrine Bowl but will not participate in practice or in the game Thursday. He was at the West team’s first practice at the University of North Texas on Saturday morning but stood on the field, watching the other prospects.
While Sanders won’t conduct any on-field work at the Shrine Bowl, he reiterated his belief that he’s worthy of being the top pick in the 2025 NFL draft. He has been training in the Dallas area with former Miami‘s Cam Ward, another top quarterback prospect in this year’s draft.
“We changed the program at Jackson [State University],” Sanders said. “We went to Colorado, changed the program. And we did everything people didn’t think we were able to do. So, that’s why I know I’m the most guaranteed risk you can take.”
Sanders met with multiple teams Friday, including the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and New York Giants, who hold the first three picks in the draft, respectively. The Titans met with Sanders for 45 minutes.
“I like that I’m able to get in the forefront of everything and they’re able to understand me and ask me whatever questions they want,” Sanders said. “I’m not ducking. I ain’t hiding. I’m right here, live in the flesh and able to answer whatever questions are out there.”
While Sanders is confident in his worthiness as the first overall pick, he said he would be “thankful for whatever situation and whoever drafts me. I know I’ll be able to change their program.”
Asked what he will bring to a team, Sanders smiled and said, “A lot of wins.”
Shedeur’s older brother Shilo, a safety, is also in Texas for the game. Colorado is also represented by wide receivers Will Sheppard, LaJohntay Wester, Jimmy Horn Jr. and cornerback Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig.
ESPN’s Turron Davenport contributed to this report.
-
Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — The New York Mets held their first winter event for fans in five years at Citi Field on Saturday, and there was one notable absence. Pete Alonso wasn’t in attendance because, for the first time since the 2016 draft, he isn’t a member of the Mets’ organization.
The homegrown star first baseman remains a free agent and, though a reunion remains possible, he might have played his last game as a Met.
Owner Steve Cohen bluntly said as much Saturday after taking the stage for a fireside chat with fans to chants of “We want Pete!”
“Personally, this has been an exhausting conversation and negotiation,” Cohen explained. “I mean, [Juan Soto’s negotiation] was tough. This is worse. A lot of it is, we’ve made a significant offer. I don’t like the structures that are being presented back to us. I think it’s highly asymmetric against us and I feel strongly about it.”
Alonso, along with third baseman Alex Bregman, is one of the two best position players left on the free agent market. The first baseman, who is represented by Scott Boras, originally sought a long-term deal, but he is open to returning to the Mets on a three-year contract and the Mets have been open to such a deal, according to a source. The obstacle has been money.
“I will never say no,” Cohen said. “There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward and we continue to bring in players. As we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have and that’s where we are.
“I’m being brutally honest. I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s being presented to us. Maybe that changes. I’ll always stay flexible. But if it stays this way, I think we’re going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”
The Mets recently re-signed outfielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker to a one-year, $7.5 million contract and added left-handed reliever A.J. Minter on a two-year, $22 million deal. They’ve also signed Soto (15 years, $765 million), Sean Manaea (three years, $75 million), Clay Holmes (three years, $38 million), and Frankie Montas (two years, $34 million), among other moves, this winter.
Preparing for life without Alonso, the Mets recently instructed third basemen Mark Vientos and Brett Baty to work out at first base. Vientos and Baty both confirmed the organization’s request Saturday.
“We all love Pete, and we’ve said that many times,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said. “And I think, as we’ve gone through this process, we’ve continued to express that. We also understand that this is a business and Pete, as a free agent, deserves the right and has the right and earned the privilege, really, to see what’s out there. We also feel really good about the young players who are coming through our system who have the ability to play at the major-league level.”
Vientos, 25, enjoyed a breakout season as one of the best hitters in the National League after solidifying himself as the Mets’ every-day third baseman in May and helping fuel the team’s run to the NL Championship Series. Baty, a former top prospect, was the club’s opening day third baseman last season. He struggled after a hot start before he was demoted to Triple-A and didn’t return to the majors.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza also named veterans Jared Young and Joey Meneses, both of whom signed this winter, as other options at first base if Alonso doesn’t return.
“Pete’s been here since I’ve been here,” said Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, who has starred for the franchise since 2021. “He was here before me. So, yeah, it would be different if he goes somewhere else. Yeah, it would be different. But I think he should take his time. I think he should make the best decision for himself and not feel that he’s rushed.”
Alonso, 30, became a fan favorite while becoming a franchise cornerstone over his six seasons in Queens. He’s hit 226 home runs since making his major-league debut — the second-highest total in baseball behind only Aaron Judge. His 53 home runs in 2019 set a rookie record. He’s been a reliable everyday presence; he’s never missed more than nine games in a season and played in all 178 games, postseason included, in 2024. He’s made four All-Star teams and won the Home Run Derby twice.
But he rates as a poor defender and baserunner whose offensive production has declined over the last three seasons, creating a free-agent market that hasn’t been as fruitful as projected when he declined a seven-year, $158 million contract extension in 2023.
“Listen, he’s a special player,” Hall of Famer and former Mets catcher Mike Piazza said Saturday. “Guys that can hit 40 home runs are not walking on the street. So when he’s really in his game, he’s a special player. I hope, from a personal standpoint, I hope they work something out.”
Outfielder Brandon Nimmo, the longest-tenured player on the roster after debuting in 2016, signed an eight-year, $162 million contract to remain with the Mets two offseasons ago. Like Alonso, Boras is his agent. Unlike Alonso, he reached a resolution in December, not with spring training around the corner.
“I would love to see Pete back with us, but I also understand that I don’t make those decisions,” Nimmo said. “And that’s between Pete and our front office and David [Stearns] and Steve [Cohen]. And from what I understand, there’s been a lot of talks between them. I’m still hopeful that we’ll sign him.”
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports10 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway