NHL playoff watch: Who will win the battle for the Central Division crown?
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Tim Kavanagh, ESPN.com
The race for the regular-season division titles is down to two teams in the Atlantic and Metro, and perhaps already won by the Vancouver Canucks in the Pacific. But the Central is our focus today, with two teams tied in standings points at the top and another just four behind.
Who will ultimately earn the division’s No. 1 seed?
The Colorado Avalanche are in the top spot with 97 points through 71 games, and 38 regulation wins. In second are the Dallas Stars, with 97 points through 72 games and 33 regulation wins. The Winnipeg Jets are in third with 93 points in 71 games and 39 regulation wins. Off in the distance is our long shot in the field, the Nashville Predators, who sit at 88 points in 71 games, with 35 regulation wins.
Colorado’s schedule down the stretch is a tough one. After Tuesday night’s game against the lottery-bound Montreal Canadiens (9 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), seven of its remaining 10 contests are against teams currently in playoff position, and two of the other three are against the Minnesota Wild, who are on the outskirts of the wild-card race but are still playing hard. The Avs are projected for 111.2 points and have a 58.8% chance of taking the division, per Stathletes.
The Stars also get a draft lottery team for their opponent on Tuesday night, as they’ll skate against the San Jose Sharks (10:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). Dallas is projected to reach 110.4 standings points and has been given a 35.3% chance of winning the Central. Of their remaining nine games beyond Tuesday, just four are against current playoff teams.
Although the Jets are behind the other two clubs in standings points, their regulation wins total could come in handy if they can gain ground. After a rough swing out east, they are back home Tuesday to host the Edmonton Oilers (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). After that game, six of their final 10 games are against teams currently in a postseason spot, including one apiece against Dallas and Colorado on Apr. 11 and 13. Stathletes projects the Jets for 106.1 points and gives them a 5.8% chance of winning the division title.
And now, the hottest team in the NHL. The Predators haven’t lost a game in regulation since Feb. 15, a span of 17 straight contests with a point. That’s a trend that can surely aid a team in its quest for a strong postseason slot, and Nashville will be going for 18 straight games with at least one point on Tuesday night against the Vegas Golden Knights (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). The Preds have been beating all manner of teams during the streak, but their remaining schedule happens to be a bit lighter than those of the teams ahead of them; just three of their final 10 contests are against current playoff teams. Nevertheless, it would be quite an unlikely outcome for Nashville to win the Central title: Stathletes projects the Preds finishing with 101.9 points and a 0.1% chance of finishing first in the division.
As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Clinching scenarios
Tuesday’s schedule
Monday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC2 Washington Capitals
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference
C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Clinching scenarios
1. The New York Rangers will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in any fashion. They also clinch if they get one point against the Flyers and the Detroit Red Wings lose to the Washington Capitals in any fashion or if the Red Wings lose to the Capitals in regulation (regardless of the Rangers’ result).
2. The Florida Panthers will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Boston Bruins in any fashion, and any of the following occurs:
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The Red Wings lose to the Capitals in any fashion
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in regulation
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in overtime or shootout AND the Capitals lose to the Red Wings in regulation
Florida can also clinch if it gets one point against Boston and Detroit loses to Washington in regulation.
3. The Carolina Hurricanes will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins in any fashion, and any of the following occurs:
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The Red Wings lose to the Capitals in any fashion
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in regulation
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The Flyers lose to the Rangers in overtime or shootout AND the Capitals lose to the Red Wings in regulation
Carolina can also clinch if it gets one point against Pittsburgh and Detroit loses to Washington in regulation.
4. The Bruins will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Panthers in any fashion AND the Red Wings lose to the Capitals in regulation.
Tuesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks 8:30 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche, 9 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Arizona Coyotes, 10 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.
Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Monday’s scoreboard
Vegas Golden Knights 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. BOS (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 98.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 25.0%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. OTT (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1.9%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9
Metropolitan Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 85.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 66.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 13.3%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 84
Next game: @ TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 8.7%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.5%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 67
Next game: @ ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 102
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.3%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1.7%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 1
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 52
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95.0%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 81
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 40
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
New York Mets left fielder Brandon Nimmo sat out Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Braves because of soreness on his right side, but he said it was realistic that he’ll return to the lineup on Monday.
Nimmo exited Saturday’s game after the fourth inning with right intercostal irritation. He felt discomfort when he held up on a swing in the second and was checked by manager Carlos Mendoza and an athletic trainer.
Nimmo, who is hitting .228 with five home runs and a team-high 25 RBI, said core testing went well and he wanted to see if he could play Sunday night, but Mendoza nixed that idea this early in the season. Nimmo said he won’t have an MRI unless problems arise when he tries swinging, which he planned to do Sunday evening.
“Everything looks good right now,” Nimmo said. “… It’s a little like, sore. So it’s like as if you worked out on it or something like that maybe a little too much. But other than that, it’s pretty good.”
The Mets start a series vs. the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday.
DJ Stewart replaced Nimmo in left field and the leadoff spot Sunday.
“I’m pretty optimistic that we caught it early,” Mendoza said. “We were able to treat it last night, and he’s feeling good today.”
In other injury news, it’s unclear when No. 1 starter Kodai Senga will throw live batting practice again or begin a minor league rehab assignment during his recovery from a right shoulder capsule strain.
Senga faced hitters twice in the past two weeks, but he’s back to just throwing bullpens probably for the next week or so, Mendoza said.
“We don’t want to put him at risk,” Mendoza said. “He’s very meticulous about his craft.”
Elsewhere, right-hander Tylor Megill (shoulder strain) pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings for Triple-A Syracuse, allowing seven hits with six strikeouts and no walks. He is expected to be reinstated from his rehab assignment this week, and the Mets must decide whether to bring him back to the big leagues or option him to Syracuse.
Right-handed reliever Drew Smith (shoulder soreness) could come off the injured list Monday or Tuesday, and left-hander David Peterson (left hip surgery) is scheduled to make another rehab start Tuesday at Double-A Binghamton and could be ready to come off the IL when eligible on May 27.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
DARLINGTON, S.C. — Brad Keselowski moved to the front when leaders Chris Buescher and Tyler Reddick hit while battling for first with nine laps left and held on to capture the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway on Sunday for his first NASCAR win in three years.
It was Keselowski’s 36th career victory, his second at Darlington and his first since reconnecting with magnate Jack Roush and becoming a co-owner at Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing.
“Hell of an effort by everyone,” Keselowski said after crossing the finish line.
It appeared Keselowski’s employee at RFK, Buescher, would get the win after he passed his boss and Reddick with 29 laps to go. But Buescher and Reddick then hit and fell back, opening the door for Keselowski’s satisfying victory.
“What a heck of a day,” he said. “That battle out there with my teammate and Tyler Reddick, we just laid it all on the line.”
Ty Gibbs was second, Josh Berry third and Denny Hamlin fourth. Chase Briscoe was fifth followed by William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Justin Haley and Michael McDowell.
It was another near miss for Buescher, who lost by 0.001 seconds to Kyle Larson at Kansas in the closest finish in NASCAR history.
Buescher slid to 30th and Reddick 32nd at Darlington.
Buescher confronted Reddick when both got out of their cars. Reddick took full blame for the incident.
Larson was in the top 10 when he spun out with 40 laps left and could not return.
Meanwhile, one slipup ended the chances of two NASCAR champions. Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr. and Byron were three-wide on Lap 128 when Byron tagged Truex, who pushed into Blaney and sent him against the wall in Turn 2.
The crew for Blaney, the defending Cup Series champion, could not repair the damage, and his day was done. He rode up alongside Byron to signal his displeasure with Byron’s move.
“He used a little bit more racetrack than I thought, so I have every right to be mad, and he gets away scot-free,” said Blaney, who wound up last in 36th place.
Truex, the 2017 series champion, dropped from the top 10 and finished 25th.
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
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