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Feeling acrophobic?

After the S&P 500s 26% return last year and this years strong start, many investors are worried understandably that this bull run is getting ahead of itself. 

They shouldnt. The strange-but-true fact is that, statistically speaking, average returns — which have amounted to about 10% a year over nearly a century of trading — arent normal in the stock market for any given year. A second, surprisingly pleasant fact is that so-called “extreme” returns are far closer to what we’d call normal — and they’re mostly on the positive side.  

Most folks think of volatility as negativity. We all recognize the NYSEs famously frazzled-looking floor trader, Peter Tuchman, peering up at the Big Board in various states of alarm, with the effect enhanced by his Einstein-style shock of white hair. 

Crucially, that image however familiar, convincing and relatable it may be   is misleading. Volatility is just movement, whether it’s up or down.

Crunching the numbers, one finds that stocks rise far more often than they fall. Forget the day-to-day or month-to month noise. Since accurate data start in 1925, the S&P 500 gained in fully 73% of rolling 12-month periods nearly three-quarters of them! Stretched to rolling five-year periods that becomes 88%. Across 10-year periods, its a staggering 94.5%. 

Meanwhile, throughout that entire, 98-year stretch, there has never been a rolling 20-year period of negative returns. Never.

To work this into your bones a little further, consider that since 1925, US stocks gained more than 20% in 37 of 98 calendar years the most frequent result! Next most frequent? Zero to 20% gains, totaling 35 times. Down between 0% and -20% followed, at 20 years. 

Down big was the real rarity, occurring just six times. So, markets posted huge gains six times as often as horrendous declines.

More simply: Stocks beat their 10% long-term average in 58 calendar years. They fell to any degree less than half as often, 26 times. So historically, you are more than twice as likely to celebrate above-average, even huge, years than encounter down years.

Looking back at the past five years, many folks again, understandably fixate on 2022s negativity, calling that volatile. OK! But what of all the great volatility during 2019s 31.5% boom? Or 2021s 28.7%? And, of course, 2023. All four years are extremes. 

Even 2020, starting dreadfully amid COVIDs lockdown-driven hyper-fast bear market, finished up 18.4%. I hesitate labeling anything in 2020 normal. But ironically, its 18% return is the closest to average among those years.

The upshot? Big returns simply arent the rarity that too far, too fast bears claim. In bull markets, they are more normal than not. Why? The roughly 10% long-term annual average includes bear markets. Strip out the bears and youll find that during the 14 S&P 500 bull markets before this one, stocks annualized 23%.

Mind you, Im not necessarily suggesting 2024 returns exceeding 20%. But it wouldnt shock me  and it shouldnt shock you. The fact is, gains of 20% and more arent abnormal at all. 

As for acrophobia, I cant disagree with a fear of hot-air balloons, mountain climbing, or a job washing windows at the Empire State Building but try to get over it when it comes to investing.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

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Politics

New English language and UK citizenship requirements for migrants as part of government crackdown

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New English language and UK citizenship requirements for migrants as part of government crackdown

Migrants will have to live in the UK for a decade before they can apply for citizenship under plans to reduce reliance on foreign workers. 

The change from five to 10 years will come with exceptions for people who make a “high contribution” to the economy or society, who will able to be fast-tracked for permanent settlement rights.

It comes on top of new English language requirements across every visa route, which will extend to adult dependents for the first time.

The measures will be announced by Sir Keir Starmer today ahead of the Immigration White Paper, which will set out further reforms to bring net migration down.

At a press conference later, the prime minister will say: “This is a clean break from the past and will ensure settlement in this country is a privilege that must be earned, not a right.

“And when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration and to learning our language.

“Lower net migration, higher skills and backing British workers – that is what this White Paper will deliver.”

Net migration – the difference between the number of people immigrating and emigrating to a country – soared when the UK left the EU in January 2020.

It reached 903,000 in the year to June 2023 before falling to 728,000 in mid-2024. But that is still well above its pre-Brexit high of 329,000 in the year up to June 2015.

The government is under pressure to tackle legal migration, as well as illegal immigration, amid Reform UK’s surge in the polls.

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Reform: Immigration ‘should be frozen’

However, experts have questioned whether some of the changes announced by Sir Keir today will have much of an impact, at least in the short term.

Currently, migrants have to live in the UK for five years to get indefinite leave to remain, or “settled status” if they are from the EU. They can then use this to apply for British citizenship, usually 12 months after settlement.

There were 162,000 grants of settlement in 2024, up 35% from 2023, and 270,000 grants of citizenship in 2024, up nearly a third on the previous year.

‘Contributions-based’ citizenship model

The new “contributions-based model” means people must spend a decade in the UK before applying to stay, unless they can show a “real and lasting contribution to the economy and society”.

Sir Keir Starmer at a summit in Oslo. Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer at a summit in Oslo. Pic: PA

The Home Office said this will include “high-skilled” and “high-contributing” individuals like nurses, doctors, engineers and AI leaders.

The details are still being fleshed out and will be put to consultation later this year rather than in the white paper, Sky News understands.

However, the thinking is that those who pay higher taxes or who work in a priority sector will be eligible to be fast-tracked. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also keen for discounts to apply to those who make an “outstanding contribution” to society, such as community leaders, it is understood.

English language requirements

The government also plans to raise English language requirements across every immigration route, so foreign workers speak a higher standard of English.

For the first time, this will also extend to all adult dependents by requiring them to demonstrate a basic understanding of English, which the government says will help people integrate and find employment.

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Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, told Sky News that extending the amount of time people need to be in the UK to get permanent settlement rights is unlikely to significantly affect migration levels, as there is “no evidence” this affects their decision about whether to migrate.

Any impact would be seen in five to ten years, “when people get to that point of the visa journey”, she said, adding that the main effect of this policy would be to “bring in more visa-fee revenue to the Home Office” and “to make it harder for migrants to settle in”.

She said that language requirements “are more likely to have an impact on the number of visas granted”, as more than half of skilled worker visas over the past couple of years have gone to dependents.

“However, there’s no data on how many of them would have passed a language test so it is hard to say how big,” Dr Sumption added.

The Home Office has not put a figure on what sort of reduction these policies could achieve, with Ms Cooper to give more details in parliament on Monday afternoon.

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Minister reveals new immigration plans

On Sunday, she told Sky News’s Trevor Phillips that plans to close the care worker visa route and change the skilled visa threshold to require a graduate qualification would cut the number of overseas workers by about 50,000 this year.

Read More:
Labour’s shift on migration may assuage voters’ concerns – but risks impacting struggling care sector
Care workers plead for higher salaries amid recruitment crisis

However, she refused to put a target on the overall levels of net migration the government is aiming for, saying that approach “failed” under the Conservatives.

The Tories have admitted making mistakes in office, but are still calling for a binding immigration cap and want to repeal the Human Rights Act for immigration issues.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said Labour has “overseen the worst ever start to a year for illegal immigrants crossing the channel” adding: “The idea that Starmer is tough on immigration is a joke.”

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US

Ukraine, Gaza and China: Why Trump’s Middle East tour takes on new importance

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Ukraine, Gaza and China: Why Trump's Middle East tour takes on new importance

Donald Trump’s tour of the Middle East this week has taken on a new importance after a series of surprising developments on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and on trade between the US and China.

After a diplomatic flurry over the weekend, it seemed like steps were being taken towards some form of possible peace in both Gaza and Ukraine.

Alongside that, Washington claimed it had made “substantial progress” in trade talks with China, with treasury secretary Scott Bessent going as far as to say a deal had been agreed to cut the US trade deficit. But there was no mention of reducing tariffs.

Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer speak to the media after trade talks with Chian in Geneva, Switzerland.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer speak to the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump is due to travel to the Middle East later today on the first major foreign trip of his second presidency, visiting Saudi Arabia and then Qatar and the UAE.

It will coincide with a possible meeting between Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, in person in Turkey, and comes after Hamas said it would release a hostage, an Israeli soldier who holds American citizenship.

This leaves Mr Trump facing challenges on three fronts as he visits some of the richest nations in the world.

Zelenskyy and Putin to meet?

More on China

The US president previously claimed he could end the war in Ukraine in one day – something he has not done.

On Sunday, he put pressure on Mr Zelenskyy to sit down and meet with Mr Putin in person after Moscow put forward the proposal for talks in Istanbul.

This was something the leader from Kyiv quickly agreed to and it came after European leaders threatened Mr Putin with fresh sanctions.

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Putin’s call for peace talks genuine?

Thursday could see a potential first in-person meeting between the two leaders since Moscow’s invasion began.

It could mark an extraordinary moment in the ongoing war in Ukraine, however, the countries are seemingly still a long way from actual peace.

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A trade deal or a first step?

After Mr Trump declared war on the existing global trade system in April, hitting allies and foes alike with tariffs, it left many reeling and triggered an escalation with China, which slapped Washington with reciprocal measures.

While those are still in place, the US said on Sunday that the two have agreed a deal to cut the US trade deficit.

However, despite confidence from the US side, China’s vice premier He Lifeng described the meeting as an “important first step” that created a foundation only.

No mention was made of reducing tariffs and this would do little good elsewhere where tariffs continue to add friction to previously freer global trade.

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Israeli soldier to be released

In Gaza, previous efforts to achieve a ceasefire collapsed and Israel implemented a total ban on aid going into the enclave to try to pressure Hamas back to the negotiating table.

With charities warning that the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza face a humanitarian crisis, the militant group has said it will release Edan Alexander, an Israeli soldier who holds US citizenship.

It comes after Israel announced it intends to occupy the entire enclave, threatening years of more war.

FILE - Yael Alexander holds a poster of her son, Edan, who was taken hostage by Hamas militants on Oct. 7, 2023, during a weekly rally for families of hostages held in the Gaza Strip and their supporters, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Feb. 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo, File)
Image:
Yael Alexander holds a poster of her son, Edan, who was taken hostage by Hamas militants.
Pic: AP

No exact date was given, but Hamas said it would release the 21-year-old as part of ongoing efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire with Israel.

His expected release has been described as a “gesture of goodwill” by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East.

The previously agreed ceasefire failed over disagreement on the transition from phase one onwards.

While Hamas wanted to progress to phase two, where work would be done towards Israel’s permanent withdrawal from Gaza and peace, Israel wanted to extend phase one and release more hostages.

Read more:
A week that could define Trump
Zelenskyy offers to meet Putin
Hamas says it will release hostage

Israel agreed to a framework proposed by the US that would see Hamas release half of the remaining hostages, its main bargaining chip, in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.

While Mr Alexander is only one hostage, it will be seen as a promising sign that Hamas returned to the negotiating table and Mr Trump will be in Qatar, the key mediator in so-far unsuccessful peace efforts.

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UK

New English language and UK citizenship requirements for migrants as part of government crackdown

Published

on

By

New English language and UK citizenship requirements for migrants as part of government crackdown

Migrants will have to live in the UK for a decade before they can apply for citizenship under plans to reduce reliance on foreign workers. 

The change from five to 10 years will come with exceptions for people who make a “high contribution” to the economy or society, who will able to be fast-tracked for permanent settlement rights.

It comes on top of new English language requirements across every visa route, which will extend to adult dependents for the first time.

The measures will be announced by Sir Keir Starmer today ahead of the Immigration White Paper, which will set out further reforms to bring net migration down.

At a press conference later, the prime minister will say: “This is a clean break from the past and will ensure settlement in this country is a privilege that must be earned, not a right.

“And when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration and to learning our language.

“Lower net migration, higher skills and backing British workers – that is what this White Paper will deliver.”

Net migration – the difference between the number of people immigrating and emigrating to a country – soared when the UK left the EU in January 2020.

It reached 903,000 in the year to June 2023 before falling to 728,000 in mid-2024. But that is still well above its pre-Brexit high of 329,000 in the year up to June 2015.

The government is under pressure to tackle legal migration, as well as illegal immigration, amid Reform UK’s surge in the polls.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Reform: Immigration ‘should be frozen’

However, experts have questioned whether some of the changes announced by Sir Keir today will have much of an impact, at least in the short term.

Currently, migrants have to live in the UK for five years to get indefinite leave to remain, or “settled status” if they are from the EU. They can then use this to apply for British citizenship, usually 12 months after settlement.

There were 162,000 grants of settlement in 2024, up 35% from 2023, and 270,000 grants of citizenship in 2024, up nearly a third on the previous year.

‘Contributions-based’ citizenship model

The new “contributions-based model” means people must spend a decade in the UK before applying to stay, unless they can show a “real and lasting contribution to the economy and society”.

Sir Keir Starmer at a summit in Oslo. Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer at a summit in Oslo. Pic: PA

The Home Office said this will include “high-skilled” and “high-contributing” individuals like nurses, doctors, engineers and AI leaders.

The details are still being fleshed out and will be put to consultation later this year rather than in the white paper, Sky News understands.

However, the thinking is that those who pay higher taxes or who work in a priority sector will be eligible to be fast-tracked. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also keen for discounts to apply to those who make an “outstanding contribution” to society, such as community leaders, it is understood.

English language requirements

The government also plans to raise English language requirements across every immigration route, so foreign workers speak a higher standard of English.

For the first time, this will also extend to all adult dependents by requiring them to demonstrate a basic understanding of English, which the government says will help people integrate and find employment.

👉 Listen to Electoral Dysfunction where you get your podcasts 👈

Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, told Sky News that extending the amount of time people need to be in the UK to get permanent settlement rights is unlikely to significantly affect migration levels, as there is “no evidence” this affects their decision about whether to migrate.

Any impact would be seen in five to ten years, “when people get to that point of the visa journey”, she said, adding that the main effect of this policy would be to “bring in more visa-fee revenue to the Home Office” and “to make it harder for migrants to settle in”.

She said that language requirements “are more likely to have an impact on the number of visas granted”, as more than half of skilled worker visas over the past couple of years have gone to dependents.

“However, there’s no data on how many of them would have passed a language test so it is hard to say how big,” Dr Sumption added.

The Home Office has not put a figure on what sort of reduction these policies could achieve, with Ms Cooper to give more details in parliament on Monday afternoon.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Minister reveals new immigration plans

On Sunday, she told Sky News’s Trevor Phillips that plans to close the care worker visa route and change the skilled visa threshold to require a graduate qualification would cut the number of overseas workers by about 50,000 this year.

Read More:
Labour’s shift on migration may assuage voters’ concerns – but risks impacting struggling care sector
Care workers plead for higher salaries amid recruitment crisis

However, she refused to put a target on the overall levels of net migration the government is aiming for, saying that approach “failed” under the Conservatives.

The Tories have admitted making mistakes in office, but are still calling for a binding immigration cap and want to repeal the Human Rights Act for immigration issues.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said Labour has “overseen the worst ever start to a year for illegal immigrants crossing the channel” adding: “The idea that Starmer is tough on immigration is a joke.”

Continue Reading

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