Ahead of sentencing, SBF team argues for 5-6 years in jail because FTX customers will get money back
Government exhibit in the case against former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
Source: SDNY
While prosecutors are requesting that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried spend 40 to 50 years in prison for his crimes, the defense team is urging the judge to consider a sentence that’s roughly 90% shorter.
Bankman-Fried’s fate will be announced in Manhattan on Thursday morning by Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the monthlong trial in November. Bankman-Fried was found guilty of seven charges tied to the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and the roughly $10 billion of customer deposits that went missing.
The hope for Bankman-Fried’s team is that Kaplan takes into account the increased likelihood that FTX customers will be able to recoup most, if not all, of the money they lost when the exchange spiraled into bankruptcy in 2022.
Lawyers representing the bankruptcy estate of FTX told a judge in Delaware last month that they expect to fully repay customers and creditors with legitimate claims. Bankruptcy attorney Andrew Dietderich, who works with FTX’s new leadership team, said “there is still a great amount of work and risk” ahead in getting all the money back to clients, but that the team has a “strategy to achieve it.”
It was a potentially dramatic change in the narrative surrounding FTX’s collapse 16 months ago. At the time, it was believed that many thousands of customers — reportedly up to a million — collectively lost billions of dollars that would be unrecoverable due to the lightly regulated and unsecured nature of the crypto industry. Those clients faced the real possibility that the vast majority of their money had evaporated, just like in other cases of hedge funds and lenders that failed during the so-called crypto winter of 2022.
Much of the government’s successful case against Bankman-Fried hinged on convincing the jury that the defendant had stolen billions of dollars worth of FTX customer money to make risky bets at Alameda.
For months, as FTX has wound its way through a Delaware bankruptcy court, new CEO John Ray III and his team of restructuring advisors have been clawing back cash, luxury property, and crypto, as well as tracking down missing assets. They’ve already collected more than $7 billion, and that doesn’t include valuables like $26 million in gifts and property to Bankman-Fried’s parents, or the $700 million handed over to K5 Global and founder Michael Kives, who invested FTX cash in companies like SpaceX that have since increased in value.
Bankman-Fried’s defense team has asked the court for a sentence in the range of 63 to 78 months. Beyond the fact that he’s a “first time, nonviolent offender,” attorneys for the FTX founder largely lean on the argument that Bankman-Fried’s risky bets paid off and the bankruptcy estate expects to fully repay FTX customers.
It’s a story that Bankman-Fried was trying to sell as he awaited trial.
“FTX US remains fully solvent,” Bankman-Fried wrote in a Substack post on Jan. 12, 2023, while he was under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California. He said the exchange “should be able to return all customers’ funds.”
One key asset in FTX’s portfolio is its stake in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic. Late last week, FTX’s bankruptcy estate struck a deal with a consortium of buyers to sell the majority of its Anthropic holdings for $884 million. Under Bankman-Fried’s leadership, FTX invested $500 million in the startup in 2021 before the boom in generative AI. The company’s valuation hit $18 billion in December 2023, which would put FTX’s roughly 8% stake at about $1.4 billion.
During Bankman-Fried’s trial, Kaplan denied the defense’s request that it be permitted to say that FTX’s investment in Anthropic was a smart bet.
‘Still guilty’
Renato Mariotti, a former prosecutor in the U.S. Justice Department’s Securities and Commodities Fraud Section, told CNBC that the more money the estate is able to recover for clients, the better for Bankman-Fried.
“If true, that is relevant and the judge is required to consider victim restitution at sentencing,” Mariotti said. “But even if victims weren’t harmed, he is still guilty of the offense.”
Mariotti said he expects the sentence to fall somewhere in between what the prosecution and defense are asking, predicting it will be “at least 20 to 25 years.”
Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried arrive for the trial of their son, former FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried, who is facing fraud charges over the collapse of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange, at Federal Court in New York City, U.S., October 26, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
In addition to the Anthropic gains, FTX customers can look at the rebound in crypto for signs of optimism. Bitcoin is trading at close to $70,000, up from less than $17,000 at the time of FTX’s collapse.
In September, the bankruptcy team released a status report showing that FTX had $3.4 billion worth of digital assets, with over $1.1 billion coming from its investment in crypto coin Solana. In the defense’s letter to the court filed last month, attorneys note a sizable increase in the value of FTX’s Solana stake, saying that as of Feb. 26, the estate saw a roughly $4 billion increase over the last six months thanks to the token’s appreciation.
Solana fits into a category of so-called “Sam coins,” a group that also includes Serum, a token created and promoted by FTX and Alameda. Solana saw a huge run-up of late, climbing more than eightfold since the end of September.
Meanwhile, FTX’s bitcoin stash, which was worth $560 million at the time of the September report, when the coin was trading at around $25,000, has seen a significant uptick as well. Bitcoin’s value has increased by around 180% since then.
For FTX customers, being made whole, according to a judge’s ruling, means getting the cash equivalent of what their crypto was worth in November 2022. In other words, they’re not seeing any of the upside of FTX’s investments or being given virtual coins that would allow them to cash out at higher valuations.
Braden Perry, who was once a senior trial lawyer for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told CNBC that Bankman-Fried faces at least 70 months in prison based on his base level offense, number of victims, sophisticated means and leadership role — even if there’s no monetary loss to the victims. The massive losses that were originally expected would suggest 30 years to life, Perry added.
Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey testifies during a remote video hearing held by subcommittees of the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee on “Social Media’s Role in Promoting Extremism and Misinformation” in Washington, U.S., March 25, 2021.
Handout | Via Reuters
Block jumped more than 5% on Monday, leading a rally in shares of fintech companies as analysts downplayed the threat of JPMorgan Chase’s reported plan to charge data aggregators for access to customer financial information.
The recovery followed steep declines on Friday, after Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan had circulated pricing sheets outlining potential fees for aggregators like Plaid and Yodlee, which connect fintech platforms to users’ bank data.
In a note to clients on Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said the potential new expenses were “far from a ‘business model-breaking’ cost increase.”
In addition to Block’s rise, PayPal climbed 3.5% on Monday after sliding Friday. Robinhood and Shift4 recorded modest gains.
Broader market momentum helped fuel some of the rebound. The Nasdaq closed at a record, and crypto rallied, with bitcoin climbing past $123,000. Ether, solana, and other altcoins also gained.
Evercore ISI’s analysts said that even if JPMorgan’s changes were implemented, the most immediate effect would be a slight bump in the cost of one-time account setups — perhaps 50 to 60 cents.
Morgan Stanley echoed that view, writing that any impact would be “negligible,” especially for large fintechs that rely more on debit, credit, or stored balances than bank account pulls for transactions.
PayPal doesn’t anticipate much short-term impact, according to a person with knowledge of the issue. The person, who asked not to be named in order to speak about private financial matters, noted that PayPal relies on aggregators primarily for account verification and already has long-term pricing contracts in place.
While smaller fintechs that depend heavily on automated clearing house (ACH) rails or Open Banking frameworks for onboarding and compliance may face real pressure if the fees take effect, analysts said the larger platforms are largely insulated.
WATCH: Congress moves to redraw $3.7 trillion crypto market rules, opening door to Wall Street
The global EV market is still charging ahead. According to new numbers from global research firm Rho Motion, 9.1 million EVs were sold worldwide in the first half of 2025, up 28% compared to the same period last year. But not every region is accelerating at the same pace.
China and Europe are doing the heavy lifting
More than half of the world’s EVs this year have been bought in China. That market hit 5.5 million sales in the first six months of 2025 – a 32% jump year-over-year. Around half of new cars bought in China are now electric.
While some Chinese cities’ subsidies have dried up, Rho Motion expects momentum to pick back up later in the year as more funding is released.
In Europe, 2 million EVs were sold in the first half of the year, up 26%. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales also rose 26%, thanks in part to affordable models like the Renault 4 (pictured) and 5 entering the market. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) weren’t far behind, growing 27% year-to-date. Chinese automakers are leaning into PHEVs as a way to work around the EU’s new tariffs on BEVs.
Spain is leading the pack with EV sales soaring 85% so far this year. Its generous MOVES III incentive program was extended in April and has kept sales strong. The UK and Germany are also seeing solid growth – 32% and 40%, respectively. France, however, is slumping. With subsidies cut, EV sales there have dropped 13%.
North America is stuck in the slow lane
Things aren’t looking quite as bright in North America. EV sales in the US, Canada, and Mexico are up just 3% so far this year.
Mexico is the one bright spot, with a 20% boost. The US is up 6%. But Canada is down a whopping 23%.
And things could get bumpier. On July 4, Trump signed Congress’s big bill into law, which axes all the Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credits. Those consumer credits for EVs now officially end on September 30.
Just over half of the EVs sold in the US this year qualified for those credits. Rho Motion predicts a rush in Q3 before the subsidies disappear – and a decline in sales after that.
Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “With Trump’s latest cuts in his ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ the US could struggle to see any growth in the EV market overall in 2025.”
Global EV sales snapshot, H1 2025 vs H1 2024
- Global: 9.1 million (+28%)
- China: 5.5 million (+32%)
- Europe: 2.0 million (+26%)
- North America: 0.9 million (+3%)
- Rest of world: 0.7 million (+40%)
Read more: China breaks records as global EV sales hit 7.2 million in 2025
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Lucid’s electric sedan can drive further, charge faster, and packs more advanced tech than most of the competition. That might explain why it’s leading the segment. The Lucid Air remained the best-selling luxury EV sedan in the US after widening its lead in the Q2.
The Lucid Air is America’s best-selling luxury EV sedan
The 2025 Lucid Air Pure arrived as the “World’s most efficient car” with an EPA-estimated range of 420 miles and a record 146 MPGe.
It just set a new Guinness World Record last week for the longest journey by an electric car after travelling 749 miles (1,205 km) on a single charge.
That record was set in the range-topping Lucid Air Grand Touring model, which is rated for up to 512 miles of EPA-estimated range. On the WLTP scale, it’s rated at 597 miles (960 km). Either way, it still crushed the estimates.
According to second-quarter sales data, released by Kelley Blue Book on Monday, the Lucid Air is still America’s best-selling luxury EV.
Lucid sold 2,630 Air models in Q2, up 10% from the previous year. Through the first half of 2025, Lucid Air sales are up 17% with 5,094 units sold.
Tesla, on the other hand, only sold 1,435 Model Ss during the quarter, 71% fewer than it did in Q2 2024. Tesla Model S sales in the US are down 70% through the first half of the year at 2,715.
Although Porsche Taycan sales were up 32% with 1,064 models sold, the significantly upgraded 2025 model year was expected to see even more demand. Porsche has 2,083 Taycans in the US this year, up just 1% from 2024.
Other luxury EV sedans, such as the BMW i5 (1,434), i7 (820), and the Mercedes EQS (498), experienced steep double-digit sales declines year-over-year.
And it’s not just electric luxury sedans. The Lucid Air is currently outselling many gas-powered vehicles in its segment.
Lucid’s first electric SUV, the Gravity, is also rolling out. Although only five were sold in the second quarter, Lucid is quickly scaling production. Lucid aims to produce 20,000 vehicles this year, more than double the roughly 9,000 it built in 2024.
Earlier today, Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, confirmed during an interview with Bloomberg that the company expects higher Gravity output in the second half of the year.
The interview was at the grand opening of Panasonic’s new battery cell plant in De Soto, Kansas. Winterhoff said Lucid will start using new cells from the facility, but not until next year.
Lucid’s CEO stressed the importance of establishing a local supply chain, as policy changes under the Trump Administration are taking effect. Lucid and Panasonic are collaborating to localize EV materials, such as graphite. Last month, Lucid secured a multi-year supply agreement with Graphite One for US-sourced Graphite.
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