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Amazon is making its largest outside investment in its three-decade history as it looks to gain an edge in the artificial intelligence race. 

The tech giant said it will spend another $2.75 billion backing Anthropic, a San Francisco-based startup that’s widely viewed as a front-runner in generative artificial intelligence. Its foundation model and chatbot Claude competes with OpenAI and ChatGPT.

The companies announced an initial $1.25 billion investment in September, and said at the time that Amazon would invest up to $4 billion. Wednesday’s news marks Amazon’s second tranche of that funding.

Amazon will maintain a minority stake in the company and won’t have an Anthropic board seat, the company said. The deal was struck at the AI startup’s last valuation, which was $18.4 billion, according to a source. 

Over the past year, Anthropic closed five different funding deals worth about $7.3 billion — and with the new Amazon investment, the total exceeds $10 billion. The company’s product directly competes with OpenAI’s ChatGPT in both the enterprise and consumer worlds, and it was founded by ex-OpenAI research executives and employees.

News of the Amazon investment comes weeks after Anthropic debuted Claude 3, its newest suite of AI models that it says are its fastest and most powerful yet. The company said the most capable of its new models outperformed OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Google‘s Gemini Ultra on industry benchmark tests, such as undergraduate level knowledge, graduate level reasoning and basic mathematics.

“Generative AI is poised to be the most transformational technology of our time, and we believe our strategic collaboration with Anthropic will further improve our customers’ experiences, and look forward to what’s next,” said Swami Sivasubramanian, vice president of data and AI at AWS cloud provider.

Amazon’s move is the latest in a spending blitz among cloud providers to stay ahead in the AI race. And it’s the second update in a week to Anthropic’s capital structure. Late Friday, bankruptcy filings showed crypto exchange FTX struck a deal with a group of buyers to sell the majority of its stake in Anthropic, confirming a CNBC report from last week.

The term generative AI entered the mainstream and business vernacular seemingly overnight, and the field has exploded over the past year, with a record $29.1 billion invested across nearly 700 deals in 2023, according to PitchBook. OpenAI’s ChatGPT first showcased the tech’s ability to produce human-like language and creative content in late 2022. Since then, OpenAI has said more than 92% of Fortune 500 companies have adopted the platform, spanning industries such as financial services, legal applications and education.

Cloud providers like Amazon Web Services don’t want to be caught flat-footed.

It’s a symbiotic relationship. As part of the agreement, Anthropic said it will use AWS as its primary cloud provider. It will also use Amazon chips to train, build and deploy its foundation models. Amazon has been designing its own chips that may eventually compete with Nvidia

Microsoft has been on its own spending spree with a high-profile investment in OpenAI. Microsoft’s OpenAI bet has reportedly jumped to $13 billion as the startup’s valuation has topped $29 billion. Microsoft’s Azure is also OpenAI’s exclusive provider for computing power, which means the startup’s success and new business flows back to Microsoft’s cloud servers.

Google, meanwhile, has also backed Anthropic, with its own deal for Google Cloud. It agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Anthropic, comprising a $500 million cash infusion, with another $1.5 billion to be invested over time. Salesforce is also a backer.

Anthropic’s new model suite, announced earlier this month, marks the first time the company has offered “multimodality,” or adding options like photo and video capabilities to generative AI.

But multimodality, and increasingly complex AI models, also lead to more potential risks. Google recently took its AI image generator, part of its Gemini chatbot, offline after users discovered historical inaccuracies and questionable responses, which circulated widely on social media.

Anthropic’s Claude 3 does not generate images. Instead, it only allows users to upload images and other documents for analysis.

“Of course no model is perfect, and I think that’s a very important thing to say upfront,” Anthropic co-founder Daniela Amodei told CNBC earlier this month. “We’ve tried very diligently to make these models the intersection of as capable and as safe as possible. Of course there are going to be places where the model still makes something up from time to time.”

Amazon’s biggest venture bet before Anthropic was electric vehicle maker Rivian, where it invested more than $1.3 billion. That too, was a strategic partnership. 

These partnerships have been picking up in the face of more antitrust scrutiny. A drop in acquisitions by the Magnificent Seven — Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla — has been offset by an increase in venture-style investing, according to Pitchbook.

AI and machine-learning investments from those seven tech companies jumped to $24.6 billion last year, up from $4.4 billion in 2022, according to Pitchbook. At the same time, Big Tech’s M&A deals fell from 40 deals in 2022 to 13 last year. 

“There is a sort of paranoia motivation to invest in potential disruptors,” Pitchbook AI analyst Brendan Burke said in an interview. “The other motivation is to increase sales, and to invest in companies that are likely to use the other company’s product — they tend to be partners, more so than competitors.”

Big Tech’s spending spree in AI has come under fire for the seemingly circular nature of these agreements. By investing in AI startups, some observers, including Benchmark’s Bill Gurley, have accused the tech giants of funneling cash back to their cloud businesses, which in turn, may show up as revenue. Gurley described it as a way to “goose your own revenues.”

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is taking a closer look at these partnerships, including Microsoft’s OpenAI deal and Google and Amazon’s Anthropic investments. What’s sometimes called “round tripping” can be illegal — especially if the aim is to mislead investors. But Amazon has said that this type of venture investing does not constitute round tripping.

FTC Chair Lina Khan announced the inquiry during the agency’s tech summit on AI, describing it as a “market inquiry into the investments and partnerships being formed between AI developers and major cloud service providers.”

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Bitcoin miners upgrade power centers and get into AI to brace for slashed revenue post halving

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Bitcoin miners upgrade power centers and get into AI to brace for slashed revenue post halving

The Bitcoin halving is set to shake up the crypto's price and the network's miners

AUSTIN, TEXAS — Adam Sullivan left investment banking to mine bitcoin at an awkward time. It was May 2023, bitcoin was trading at around $21,000, U.S. regulators were in the thick of cracking down on the sector writ large, and Core Scientific, the company he had agreed to take over, was battling angry lenders in a Texas bankruptcy court over tens of millions of dollars in outstanding debt.

But Sullivan knew that, with a lifeline, he could get the business to a much better place. That’s because the halving was on the way, and with it would likely come a big rally in bitcoin.

Late Friday night, the bitcoin code automatically cut new issuance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency in half. It happens roughly every four years, and in addition to helping to stave off inflation, it historically precedes a major run-up in the price of bitcoin.

The technical event is relatively simple: Bitcoin miners get paid in bitcoin to validate transactions, and after 210,000 blocks of transactions are computed and added to the main chain, the reward given to the miners securing bitcoin is ‘halved.’

There are more than a dozen publicly traded miners on the network and thousands of smaller, private ones around the globe, constantly racing to process transactions and get paid in new bitcoin. Because the event leads to a cut to rewards paid to miners directly, they’ll be the first ones to feel the impact of the halving.

The price of bitcoin has touched new all-time highs after each “halving” event.

CNBC

Typically, when the halving cuts supply, it’s led to huge rallies for bitcoin.

In fact, the previous (and only) three halvings in the chain’s history have come before every bull run, in which the coin has touched new all-time highs and a surge of investors have entered the market for the first time.

That rapid price increase has helped many miners stave off the worst since it tends to offset the impact of having the block prize cut in half.

“As a company that was already in the process of scaling our infrastructure during the previous halving, we know the toll that halvings can take on a company if it is not adequately prepared,” Core’s Sullivan told CNBC.

The aggregate market cap of the 14 U.S.-listed bitcoin miners tracked by JPMorgan analysts, which accounts for around 21% of the global Bitcoin network, declined 28% over the first half of April to $14.2 billion, reaching year-to-date lows. Bitdeer was the best-performing stock over the period, down around 20%, versus Stronghold Digital, which was 46% lower.

Some have billed the 2024 bitcoin halving as a seminal moment for the mining sector. Depending on how much prep work miners have done, it could easily make or break them.

“Being prepared for a halving means evaluating all of your power strategies, all of your software capabilities, all of your operations,” continued Sullivan.

Others are less concerned given recent price moves in bitcoin.

In a research note from Needham on Apr. 16, analysts said they expect the halving to only have a modest impact to miners’ estimated EBITDA margins, despite the 50% reduction in revenue, since the price of bitcoin has been trading in the range of $60,000 to $70,000.

“We expect geopolitical tensions and interest rate policy to be the biggest near-term drivers of crypto price action,” Needham analysts wrote, adding that at a bitcoin price above $60,000, the halving is “derisked for nearly all public miners.”

The bank did, however, single out their preference for low-cost bitcoin producers like Riot Platforms, Bitdeer, and Cipher Mining. Meanwhile, if bitcoin prices fall, Needham says the most outsized native impact will be felt by higher cost producers that are also levered to higher bitcoin prices via large treasury holdings.

Analysts from JPMorgan echoed a similar sentiment, writing in an Apr. 16 research note that they think “recent weakness offers an attractive entry point” for investors and that they are “especially bullish” on Riot, which they believe offers attractive relative valuations.

Power supply for Whinstone’s bitcoin mine in Rockdale, Texas.

Years spent bracing for the halving

Miners have had years to prepare for the halving, including seeking lower power costs and upgrading their fleets to more efficient machines.

“Bitcoin’s halving happens like clockwork every four years,” said Haris Basit, chief strategy officer of Bitdeer Technologies Group. “It’s a known variable that is a benchmark for us to remain focused on operational excellence.”

To that end, the Singapore-headquartered mining firm has invested in new data centers, but its core strategy has been to increase vertical integration through research and development. 25% of its staff is focused on R&D efforts, which Basit says have “led to new innovations and revenue pathways, such as our recently announced 4nm mining rigs and AI Cloud offerings.”

Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald recently named Bitdeer as having one of the industry’s lowest “all-in” cost-per-coin.

Greg Beard, the CEO and Chairman of Stronghold Digital Mining, tells CNBC that miners whose only lever is more efficient machines will be at a disadvantage.

“Miners who own their low-cost power are better positioned,” said Beard. “Operational costs will be lower, allowing them to be more flexible with their capital.”

Core’s Sullivan agrees, noting that bitcoin mining data centers in the future will work hand-in-glove with power generators and grid operators to serve as a virtual battery for grid operators – allowing them to increase base load, curtail bitcoin data centers when they need to, and avoid peak generation loads, which he says are dirty and expensive.

“We own and operate our infrastructure, giving us greater control over operational and strategic decisions, such as the potential to expand into high-performance computing hosting,” said Sullivan.

Core Scientific, which launched in 2017 and now manages seven mining sites in five U.S. states, also owns the full technology stack. The company has been looking to diversify its revenue streams beyond purely bitcoin. Sullivan says that existing data centers offer reconfiguration opportunities to accommodate new types of high-value compute. 

“Certain data centers are located in close proximity to major metropolitan areas, making them candidates for low-latency, high-value compute applications,” said Core’s CEO.

Bitdeer’s bitcoin mine in Rockdale, Texas.

Riot Platforms CEO Jason Les told CNBC that preparation for the halving came down to the company’s long-standing focus on achieving a low cost of power, strong balance sheet, and significant scale of operations. Les says that’s what has positioned the firm to both withstand the halving with positive margins and be well positioned for upside on the other side of it.  

“Our new Corsicana Facility was energized just this week, and we will be significantly scaling up our hash rate with next-generation equipment at that new site over the remainder of the year,” said Les. “As a result, we are positioned to mine more bitcoin per day at the end of the year than we do today, despite the halving.”

Marathon Digital, which has seen its stock rise more than 70% in the last year, took a different approach to scaling the business than its rivals. CEO Fred Thiel tells CNBC that the company grew quickly using an asset-light approach, where Capex was spent on mining rigs rather than infrastructure. 

“In December, we owned less than 5% of the sites where we were hosting our miners,” said Thiel. “Today we now own 53% of our total 1.1 gigawatts of capacity, having purchased it at less than the build and replacement cost.”

Owning sites lowers Marathon’s cost to mine by up to 20% on a marginal cost basis. Thiel also noted that by the end of 2024, Marathon expects to further improve efficiency by 10% to 15% as they deploy the next generation rigs across their new sites. 

That boost to efficiency isn’t just about new gear, however. The firm is deploying its own custom firmware, which allows it to operate even more efficiently. 

Marathon, along with other mining firms, has begun diversifying its business model into ancillary operations beyond purely bitcoin mining, as well.

Thiel says the company recently launched an energy harvesting division, where they are compensated for converting stranded methane and bio-mass into energy, which they then sell heat back into an industrial or commercial process. The service essentially subsidizes and lowers Marathon’s cost to mine significantly. The company expects this new business line to generate a significant portion of its revenues by the halving in 2028. 

Blockstream's Adam Back on teaming up with Tesla and Block to mine bitcoin with solar power

Diversifying revenue

The April 2024 bitcoin halving looks a lot different than the three that came before it.

For years, increased competition resulting from new miners coming online has been cutting into profits, because more miners means more people are sharing the same pool of rewards.

In a research note from JPMorgan on Apr. 16, analysts note that the network hashrate, a proxy for industry competition and mining difficulty, was up 4% in April from the month before. Stronghold’s Beard says the halving is a headwind dwarfed by the global hashrate increasing nearly five-fold from the last one in May 2020.

“Mining is a tough industry especially because there are a lot of nation states that have extra power power and they’re dedicating it to mining,” said Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures. “It’s a free market, anybody can enter into it as long as they have the basics.”

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also significantly shifted the pricing dynamics. In years past, the price of bitcoin didn’t surge until after the halving. But in the wake of record flows into these spot bitcoin funds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency touched a fresh all-time-high above $73,000 in March.

“The recently approved bitcoin ETFs have proven to be huge pipelines of capital into bitcoin and that universe of ETFs continues to grow with the recent approvals in Hong Kong as well,” said Riot’s Les. “We think the price action we’ve seen in bitcoin year-to-date reflect that and has us very optimistic on what bitcoin mining economics can look like in the months and years post-halving.”

Bitcoin resumes rally after hitting a new all-time high

Blackrock’s ETF reached $17 billion in net assets within a few months of launching. Beard of Stronghold tells CNBC that if Blackrock added even just a billion dollars more of bitcoin in April to its ETF, it would single handedly create demand for more coins than the mining industry will supply post halving.

What is also different this time around is that the block reward is no longer the primary form of miner revenue. Recent programming innovations in bitcoin have given way to a burgeoning ecosystem of projects building on top of bitcoin’s blockchain, which has translated to greater transaction fee revenue for miners.

There is a limit to how large the blocks can go but the value of those blocks is about to increase significantly, according to Bill Barhydt, who is the CEO and founder of Abra. From Barhydt’s vantage point, he supports miners with a mix of services, including their auto liquidations, so he has access to a lot of macro data across the sector.

“The math is simple,” begins Barhydt. “Bitcoin blocks are fixed in size and the demand for data within those blocks is going to increase significantly for several reasons, including more retail wallet holders moving their bitcoin into and out of storage, new uses cases like Ordinals (NFTs for bitcoin) and DeFi on bitcoin, institutional settlement requirements for exchange traded products in the U.S., Hong Kong, Europe, etc., lightning settlement transactions, and more.”

At the current rate of adoption, Barhydt believes that transaction fees in this cycle would likely peak within 24 months at 10 times their cost during the previous cycle peak, due to a combination of a higher price for bitcoin itself, combined with higher demand for the space inside each block. 

Castle Island’s Carter isn’t so sure that fee-based revenue can completely make up for lost income post-halving.

“It’s not entirely clear that fees are fully offsetting the lost revenue, and in fact, I don’t expect that to happen” said Carter.

Fees tend to be really cyclical. They rise sharply during periods of congestion, and they fall back to near zero during other normal periods. Carter cautions that miners will see spikes in fees, but there is not yet an enduring, strong, and robust fee market most of the time.

Jack Dorsey backed start-up taps into geothermal, hydro and solar power to run bitcoin mines across Africa

Swapping ASICs for AI

In the last year, there has been a surge in demand for AI compute and infrastructure that can support the massive workloads required to power these novel machine learning applications. In a new report, digital asset fund manager CoinShares says it expects to see more miners shift toward artificial intelligence in energy-secure locations because of the potential for higher revenues.

Already, mining firms like BitDigital, Hive, Hut 8, Terawfulf, and Core Scientific all have either current AI operations or AI growth plans.

“This trend suggests that bitcoin mining may increasingly move to stranded energy sites while investment in AI grows at more stable locations,” write analysts at CoinShares.

But pivoting from bitcoin mining to AI isn’t as simple as re-purposing existing infrastructure and machines. The data center requirements are different, as are the data network needs.

“AI presents several challenges, notably the need for distinct and considerably more costly infrastructure, which establishes barriers to entry for smaller, less capitalized entities,” continues the report. “Additionally, the necessity for a different skill set among employees leads to increased costs as companies hire more AI-skilled talent.”

The rigs used to mine bitcoin are called ASICs, short for Application-Specific Integrated Circuits. The “Specific” in that acronym means that it can’t be used to do other things, like supporting the underlying infrastructure for AI.

“If you’re a bitcoin miner, your machines can’t be repurposed,” explains Carter. “You have to buy net new machines in order to do it and the data center requirements are different for AI versus bitcoin mining.”

Sullivan says that Core Scientific, which has been mining a mix of digital assets since 2017, began to diversify into other services in 2019.

“The company has owned and hosted Nvidia DGX systems and GPUs for AI computing, having built and deployed a specialized facility specifically for high-value compute applications at our Dalton, Georgia data center campus,” he said.

Core Scientific has also partnered with CoreWeave, a cloud provider which provides infrastructure for use cases like machine learning.

Sullivan says the combined capabilities will support both AI and High Performance Compute workloads, resulting in an estimated revenue of $100 million, though he says the total potential revenue is much higher given their significant infrastructure footprint that can be fitted to host some of the most advanced GPU compute coming to market.

“Bitcoin mining is an early example of high-value compute, attracting significant capital and a number of companies scaling their operations to support the Bitcoin network,” said Sullivan.

But Sullivan thinks few operators will be able to make the transition to AI.

Sullivan continued, “Bitcoin mining sites can only be repurposed if they meet the attributes that are required for HPC. Many existing sites across North America do not meet these needs.”

Spot bitcoin ETF decision: First trades expected after SEC grants multiple approvals

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Bitcoin just completed its fourth-ever ‘halving,’ here’s what investors need to watch now

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Bitcoin just completed its fourth-ever 'halving,' here’s what investors need to watch now

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

The Bitcoin network on Friday night slashed the incentives rewarded to miners in half for the fourth time in its history.

The celebrated event, which takes place about once every four years as mandated in the Bitcoin code, is designed to slow the issuance of bitcoins, thereby creating a scarcity effect and allowing the cryptocurrency to maintain its digital gold-like quality.

There may be some speculative trading on the event itself. JPMorgan said it expects to see some downside in bitcoin post-halving and Deutsche Bank said it “does not expect prices to increase significantly.” However, the impact may be bigger months from now, even if bitcoin continues its trend of diminishing returns from its halving day to its cycle top. Two key things to watch will be the block reward and the hash rate.

“While the upcoming Bitcoin halving will create a supply shock as the previous ones had, we believe its impact on the cryptocurrency’s price could be magnified by the concurrent demand shock created by the emergence of spot bitcoin ETFs,” said Benchmark’s Mark Palmer.

The bigger immediate impact will be to the miners themselves, he added. They’re the ones that run the machines that do the work of recording new blocks of bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.

“Miners with access to inexpensive, reliable power sources are well positioned to navigate the post-halving market dynamics,” said Maxim’s Matthew Galinko in a note Friday. “Some miners, many that are not public, could exit the market with a combination of poor access to power, efficient machines, and capital. Miners with capital and relatively expensive power will likely find opportunities in the wake of potential consolidation and disruption driven by the halving.”

The block reward

Miners have two incentives to mine: transaction fees that are paid voluntarily by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 3.125 newly created bitcoins, or about $200,000 as of Friday evening, when the mining reward shrunk from 6.25 bitcoins. The incentive was initially 50 bitcoins.

The reduction in the block rewards leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoin by slowing the pace at which new coins are created, helping maintain the idea of bitcoin as digital gold — whose finite supply helps determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, per the Bitcoin code. There are about 19.6 million in circulation today.

“Miners utilize powerful, specialized computer hardware to validate transactions on the Bitcoin network and record them permanently on the blockchain,” Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure said. “This process, known as mining, rewards miners with newly minted bitcoins. But with each halving, the reward to mining is decreased to maintain scarcity and control the cryptocurrency’s inflation rate over time.”

The hash rate

Historically after a halving, the Bitcoin hash rate – or the total computational power used by miners to process transactions on the Bitcoin network – has fallen, pricing some miners out of the market. It generally recovers in the medium term, however, Laboure pointed out.

The network hash rate has been hitting all-time highs for months as miners tried to take market share ahead of the halving. Growth in the Bitcoin hash rate dilutes individual miners’ contribution to the network hash rate.

“In the past three halvings, the network recovered its pre-halving hash rate levels within an average of 57 days,” she said. “It is also likely that the current elevated prices of bitcoin may limit this short-term dip in the hash rate, as bitcoin miners enjoy record high profits in the lead-up to the halving.”

Palmer said the impact of the halving on bitcoin miners’ economics could be “more than offset over time” if bitcoin’s price rallies keep pushing the cryptocurrency to new highs in the months ahead.

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The Bitcoin network completes the fourth-ever ‘halving’ of rewards to miners

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The Bitcoin network completes the fourth-ever ‘halving’ of rewards to miners

Breaking down Bitcoin's upcoming 'halving' event

The Bitcoin network on Friday evening completed its fourth “halving,” reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25.

The price of bitcoin has been volatile ahead of the event, and fell about 4% this week to trade around $64,100, according to Coin Metrics.

Mechanically, the halving itself shouldn’t affect the price of bitcoin in the short term, but many investors are expecting big gains in the months ahead, based on the cryptocurrency’s performance after previous halvings. After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top.

The event is a big test for mining companies, however.

“All else equal, the halving will cut industry revenues in half, triggering a wave of consolidation and business closures, while (hopefully) rationalizing the network hashrate and industry capex, which is ultimately good for the remaining operators,” JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith said in a recent note to investors.

Hash rates are a measure of the computational power used to process transactions on the bitcoin network. The larger a miner’s hash rate, the greater of a revenue opportunity it has.

Mining stocks have been volatile in the days leading up to the event. Many are down by double digits for the year, after rallying between about 300% and 600% in 2023. Riot Platforms, for instance, is down about 41% in 2024 through Friday’s close, but it surged 356% in 2023.

“The market so far has seen bitcoin mining stocks as mere BTC proxies, in absence of bitcoin ETFs,” said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani. “[The] halving would further differentiate the low cost, high-scale consolidating winners vs. rest of smaller miners which may be disadvantaged post-halving.”

Mining stocks in 2023 and 2024

2024 YTD 2023 return
MARATHON DIGITAL (MARA) -30.2% 586.84%
RIOT PLATFORMS (RIOT) -41.08% 356.34%
CLEANSPARK (CLSK) 54.4% 440.69%
IRIS ENERGY (IREN) -31.68% 472%
CIPHER MINING (CIFR) -7.63% 637.50%

Still, speculators may still trade on the event. Another JPMorgan analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said Thursday that he expects the near-term bitcoin price to fall after the halving, citing overbought conditions and prices that are still above the cryptocurrency’s comparison to gold when adjusted for volatility. He also pointed to subdued venture capital funding of crypto projects.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have a similar view.

“[The] Bitcoin halving is already partially priced in by the market and we do not expect prices to increase significantly following the halving event,” the firm’s Marion Laboure said in a note Thursday, adding that it “has been widely anticipated in advance due to the nature of the Bitcoin algorithm.”

“Looking ahead, we continue to expect prices to stay high,” she added, citing expectations of future spot Ethereum ETF approvals, future central bank rate cuts and regulatory developments.

Bitcoin is currently trading at just under $64,000, roughly 13% off its March 14 all-time high of $73,797.68.

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