‘He looks happy’: Has Juan Soto finally found a home with the Yankees?
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
WHEN JUAN SOTO began to initiate himself with the New York Yankees, his third team in less than two years, the takeaway from those who observed it was how seamless it felt — how comfortable he looked, how easily he found his voice, how quickly it seemed as if he had been there forever.
He’s getting better at this.
“It’s definitely easier than the first time,” Soto said with a laugh earlier this month, about two weeks after his first official workout as a Yankee. “The first time, it was really tough.”
It can be jarring to consider Soto — the accomplishments he has had, the legends he has been compared to, the trades he has been at the center of — and realize he is only 25 years old, younger than Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman, Toronto’s Bo Bichette and Atlanta’s Austin Riley. Before Soto, no player had ever made three All-Star teams and been traded twice before the age of 26.
The latest brought him to his sport’s most decorated franchise, for whom he’ll debut in an Opening Day matchup against the rival Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Thursday afternoon. The Yankees will pair Soto with fellow superstar Aaron Judge in hopes of revitalizing a lineup that often looked listless amid an 82-win, playoff-less season last year. But only the 2024 season is promised. After it ends, Soto will venture into the free agent market, potentially on the move once more.
There was a time, not too long ago, when Soto thought his career would be a steady and continuous ascension, the type reserved for only a select few of the game’s greatest. Debuting at 19, winning the World Series after his age-20 season, claiming a batting title at 21 and drawing comparisons to Ted Williams by 22 will do that. He has since had to grapple with interruption, calamity, imperfection. He believes he has been hardened by it.
“The Nationals showed me the business side of the game,” Soto said, “and I’m just glad they showed me that.”
Soto spent an entire morning crying after being traded away from the Washington Nationals, the team that signed him, shaped him, watched him become a star and helped make him a champion. In the aftermath of his trade from the San Diego Padres 16 months later, in December 2023, he was unemotional, fully adept at navigating the cold realities of professional sports.
“I’ve been growing a lot,” Soto said. “On the business side, I’ve been learning a lot of things — about different organizations, different cultures. I think I’ve been learning from that. I’m happy I’m learning that way, so that whenever I get to one spot I know how to react whenever I get around a clubhouse that is going to be different.”
Barring an unexpected extension with the Yankees, Soto, a Scott Boras client, will become baseball’s most coveted free agent in a little more than seven months. Given the heavy deferrals in Shohei Ohtani‘s contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers — he signed for $700 million, but the present-day value, based on how it impacts the competitive balance tax payroll, sits at $460 million — Soto still has a chance to sign the richest contract in baseball history.
But what he wants more than anything is stability.
“That’s the best thing for me,” Soto said. “Stay in one place and try to, whenever I do this deal, just finish in that one spot.”
THE DETAILS OF professional sports contracts are often public, forcing athletes to live with the pressure of how much money they make. Few, though, have to live with the pressure of how much money they turn down. Soto lived that reality in the summer of 2022, during a 17-day window that began with the revelation that he declined a 15-year, $440 million extension from the Nationals on July 16 and ended with his trade to the Padres on Aug. 2.
The noise didn’t just come from fans and media, but from friends and family, many of them miffed by how anyone, let alone a person with such humble beginnings, could turn down generational wealth.
“It was days,” Soto said, “where I’d wake up and I’d get so many text messages, calls, phone calls, everything, that it just made you not even want to go to the field.”
Roughly 17 months later, the anger over all of it becoming public still feels fresh.
“I was a guy who was loyal to the team,” Soto said. “I always tried to say, ‘Anything we do business-wise, it was just between the team and myself.’ And it was really shocking for me, it was really tough for me. It was really frustrating at the same time, because I really trusted that team. I gave all my trust to be able to negotiate and do things like that, and when you see stuff like that, you just feel so bad. It was really uncomfortable.”
The Nationals’ extension offer, which didn’t come with any deferrals, would stand as baseball’s second-largest contract even today. But its average annual value, $29.3 million, would rank Soto behind 18 other players this season. Given the combined $54 million he will make in his last two arbitration years, Soto projects to do better than that in free agency, especially with another MVP-caliber year in 2024. Any free agent deal exceeding $386 million would net him more money in the aggregate.
Just as big a deterrent as the average annual value for Soto, though, was that the Nationals were for sale at the time.
“You’re being offered a contract from a faceless owner,” Boras said in a phone conversation. “And Juan Soto didn’t want to place his career in that position, because he really wanted to know who he was going to be working with for years to come.”
“People can judge you, but at the end of the day, it’s you who has to feel comfortable,” said retired outfielder Nelson Cruz, a confidant of Soto’s with the Nationals in 2022 who briefly joined him with the Padres in 2023. “That made me really proud of him, to see him figure out, ‘It’s me who has to deal with it.’ It was great to see him grow up as a player, grow up on the business side, because he understood his value and what he’s worth. He’s very educated with that. I hope he gets what he wants.”
Once he arrived in San Diego, Soto said, “all the noise just stopped.” But the 2022 season still saw him finish with only a .242 batting average and a .452 slugging percentage, by far the lowest marks of his career. The Padres won anyway, making it all the way to the National League Championship Series. The ensuing offseason saw them sign Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract. Later, near the end of February, Manny Machado was given an 11-year, $350 million extension.
It seemed like the Padres — also tied long-term to Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish — didn’t have any more millions to give. But Soto said he maintained hope of staying, too. His conversations with owner Peter Seidler made him believe it was possible.
“He really wanted me to be part of the team,” Soto said.
Boras saved his last exchange with Seidler, a short text message from Nov. 2. In it, Seidler, who late in the season had undergone an undisclosed medical procedure, wrote that he was “improving steadily” and that though doctors had told him to stay off his phone, “I’m going to keep in touch with you anyway.” Twelve days later, Seidler died. Sources familiar with the team’s thinking believe the Padres ultimately would have had no choice but to trade Soto; it was their best — and perhaps only — route to adding starting-pitching depth and getting their payroll below $200 million, two clear goals at the start of the offseason. But many wonder if Seidler would have found a way to keep Soto regardless.
“I only know everything that Peter said to me,” Boras said. “Peter Seidler always said to me that Juan Soto will be on his team. He said it 50 times to me — ‘Juan Soto will be on my team.'”
SOTO HAS SAID all the right things about becoming a Yankee. But he hasn’t been as effusive as one might expect for what feels like such a natural fit — a magnetic, star-level player for a premier franchise. Some have rationalized it as another bargaining move, not unlike Soto’s decision to turn down the Nationals’ final offer; a way to maintain leverage in the lead-up to a free agency that will include the crosstown New York Mets, among others, as aggressive suitors.
It might be something else, though: a defense mechanism. Soto doesn’t want to get hurt again, and so he won’t allow himself to.
“That’s how things go,” Soto said. “You definitely love where you’re at, you’re definitely happy, excited with where you’re going to be and how the team’s going to be — but they show you you cannot fall in love, like I did with the Nationals. I was more than excited to be there, and they just cracked everything open and let me go.”
Boras has had precisely 52 meetings with Soto (“I keep track of them,” he said) to go over “the economics of the game and his value in it.” Soto is not just one of the best hitters of this era; at a time when players constantly sacrifice strikeouts to keep up with the high velocities and elevated spin rates of the modern game, his combination of patience and power is unmatched. Soto drew a major-league-leading 412 walks from 2021 to 2023, 136 more than the second-place Kyle Schwarber, but also accumulated 91 home runs, tied for 15th. His adjusted OPS of 157 is the fifth highest all-time through a player’s age-24 season, trailing only Ty Cobb, Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle and Jimmie Foxx, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
That he’ll be a free agent at 26 years old only adds to the possibility that his next contract will reach the $500 million threshold that had been so elusive until Ohtani. Soto, though, cares about the length of his new deal at least as much as he cares about the value attached to it. It’ll be the first contract he signs, but he also wants it to be his last.
“At the end of the day, everybody wants to be where they’re going to finish their career,” Soto said. “This free agency was really tough for a lot of players, but I think if you ask any guy in the clubhouse, anywhere, they will be happy to be in a long-term deal and try to finish their career where they can be. That’s the best thing for me — to stay in one place and try to, whenever I do this deal, just finish in that one spot.”
Soto brought up his four most prominent ex-teammates — Machado, Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper. Machado, Bogaerts and Turner each signed 11-year deals that carry them through their age-40 season; Harper signed a 13-year contract after hitting free agency at a similar age as Soto will. All have full no-trade clauses.
“Long contracts,” Soto said, “because they know they’re going to finish their career right there. Anything can happen in the future. Maybe they get traded. But that’s going to be on them if they want to get traded, instead of going to free agency and trying the market again. They just know they’re going to be there for a long time.”
YANKEES GENERAL MANAGER Brian Cashman lowered the expectations early. On the first day of spring training, when he met with the New York media, he essentially stated that, barring something unforeseen, Soto will play out the 2024 season in the Bronx and then become a free agent. It was a reaction to a conversation Boras had with managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner shortly after the trade, during which Boras relayed Soto’s desire to “learn what it’s like to be a Yankee” before making a long-term commitment.
It was also an acknowledgment of the obvious.
“Scott Boras is his agent,” Cashman said plainly. “Scott takes his guys to free agency. That’s typically what he does. It’s just reading the landscape and recognizing that that is the most realistic avenue. It doesn’t mean that’s what’s going to happen. I don’t rule it out. But I just feel like under-promise, overperform is probably, in the New York market, the best thing you can do.”
The Yankees are expected to be aggressive in their efforts to bring Soto back this offseason, even if it means giving him a contract that tops the one signed by their captain, Judge, who landed a nine-year, $360 million deal as a 30-year-old in December 2022.
The results of 2024 could have a lot of sway.
The Yankees are coming off one of their most disappointing seasons in recent memory and will be without their ace, Gerrit Cole, until at least May or June while he recovers from what has been diagnosed as nerve inflammation and edema in his right elbow. Soto has never needed to be more of a difference-maker, and the early signs were promising. His first seven Grapefruit League games saw him hit four home runs, leaving his new team in awe.
“I feel like he’s going to kill the ball every time he swings,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said at the time.
“I knew I would enjoy watching him,” Cole said, “but I love watching him.”
There are no questions surrounding Soto’s ability to hit, but there are plenty surrounding his ability to defend, so much so that there are already talks — among fans, but also among scouts and executives — about him eventually transitioning to designated hitter, perhaps sooner than later. It’s the one aspect of his game that could prevent the massive contract he once seemed pre-ordained for, and he knows it.
“I want to show people that I can play outfield, I can play defense,” Soto said. “I saw those comments and everything, that they say I’m not going to be [much] longer in the outfield. But I feel like I can.”
By Statcast’s Run Value metric, Soto was a minus-30 from 2018 to 2023, though the number was heavily skewed by an abysmal showing in 2022. He was worth four outs above average in 2021, but minus-16 in 2022 and minus-9 in 2023. In hopes of getting him closer to the metrics of three years ago, Yankees outfield coach Luis Rojas spent a large portion of spring training working with Soto on pre-pitch techniques in hopes of improving his first step, usually by taking live reads during batting practice. His desire to improve has been obvious.
“I noticed that from the first day we talked,” Rojas said. “You can sense it right away, when a player takes over a conversation and basically owns it. You see the sense of responsibility that he has for his career, in all areas.”
Cruz sees Soto as the prototypical Yankee, for reasons that extend far beyond a short right-field porch. Cruz, 43, spent 19 years in the big leagues and struggled to find someone more focused, more disciplined and more mature than Soto. Those traits, while coupled with a strong demeanor and a hard exterior, have at times distanced Soto from teammates, as some around the Padres can attest to. But Cruz believes they’ll be a major benefit under New York’s magnifying glass.
“The fans are going to love him,” said Cruz, now an adviser with the Dodgers. “He’s the type of player the Yankees are looking for.”
Soto made fast friends with fellow outfielder Alex Verdugo, his new throwing partner and locker mate at the Yankees’ spring training complex in Tampa, Florida. One locker over was Trent Grisham, the veteran center fielder who came over with Soto in the most recent trade. Grisham was on the same Padres team where Soto admittedly struggled to adapt and was surprised to see Soto now so comfortable, so at ease, at such an early stage with the Yankees. He told him as much before the end of the first week.
“He looks happy,” Grisham said a few days later. “He looks excited.”
He’s done this before.
HONOLULU — Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani and his agent, Nez Balelo, moved to dismiss a lawsuit filed last month accusing them of causing a Hawaii real estate investor and broker to be fired from a $240 million luxury housing development on the Big Island’s Hapuna Coast.
Ohtani and Balelo were sued Aug. 8 in Hawaii Circuit Court for the First Circuit by developer Kevin J. Hayes Sr. and real estate broker Tomoko Matsumoto, West Point Investment Corp. and Hapuna Estates Property Owners, who accused them of “abuse of power” that allegedly resulted in tortious interference and unjust enrichment.
Hayes and Matsumoto had been dropped from the development deal by Kingsbarn Realty Capital, the joint venture’s majority owner.
In papers filed Sunday, lawyers for Ohtani and Balelo said Hayes and Matsumoto in 2023 acquired rights for a joint venture in which they owned a minority percentage to use Ohtani’s name, image and likeness under an endorsement agreement to market the venture’s real estate development at the Mauna Kea Resort. The lawyers said Ohtani was a “victim of NIL violations.”
“Unbeknownst to Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo, plaintiffs exploited Ohtani’s name and photograph to drum up traffic to a website that marketed plaintiffs’ own side project development,” the lawyers wrote. “They engaged in this self-dealing without authorization, and without paying Ohtani for that use, in a selfish and wrongful effort to take advantage of their proximity to the most famous baseball player in the world.”
The lawyers claimed Hayes and Matsumoto sued after “Balelo did his job and protected his client by expressing justifiable concern about this misuse and threatening to take legal action against this clear misappropriation.” They called Balelo’s actions “clearly protected speech “
In a statement issued after the suit was filed last month, Kingsbarn called the allegations “completely frivolous and without merit.”
Ohtani is a three-time MVP on the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
“Nez Balelo has always prioritized Shohei Ohtani’s best interests, including protecting his name, image, and likeness from unauthorized use,” a lawyer for Ohtani and Balelo, said in a statement. “This frivolous lawsuit is a desperate attempt by plaintiffs to distract from their myriad of failures and blatant misappropriation of Mr. Ohtani’s rights.”
Lawyers for Hayes and Matsumoto did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Bill Connelly
What’s the old Guy Fieri line from “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives”? “Slow down and take a look around”? College football’s superpower is its absolute enormity, and if you search, you’ll always find a wild game worth watching.
Some weeks, however, you don’t have to try very hard to find them. Week 3 of the 2025 season basically smacked us in the face with them.
Whether you considered Texas A&M-Notre Dame or Georgia-Tennessee the biggest game of the week, it didn’t matter — they both went down to the wire with quarterback heroics and special teams heartbreaks. And two of the sport’s wildest rivalries, Pitt-West Virginia and Ole Miss-Arkansas, both gave us classics too. Throw in a Division III Hail Mary and a pair of stunning HBCU endings, and just about the only thing we were missing Saturday was a late-night thriller.
After two straight wild weekends, 39 FBS teams remain unbeaten. Obviously some of those teams have more blemishes and weaknesses than others, but until you lose, you haven’t lost! SP+ projects an average of 0.95 of these teams reaching 12-0 — it might as well be your team!
All 39 of these teams are playoff contenders as long as their loss column zeros remain. As has become tradition at this point, let’s rank all the remaining unbeaten teams three weeks into the season.
Ranking all 39 unbeaten teams
SP+ and FPI rankings: second and first, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.4%
What the Ducks did in Week 3: def. Northwestern 34-14
It took Dan Lanning’s Ducks a little while to put Northwestern away early Saturday, primarily because their opponents were embarking on a series of lengthy (and eventually scoreless) drives. But they were never in danger, and they’ve spent most of three games in kick-butt-and-take-names mode.
SP+ and FPI rankings: third and second
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.5%
What the Buckeyes did in Week 3: def. Ohio, 37-9
Ohio is good enough that I expected the Bobcats to force the Buckeyes to put in a shift, but I can’t say I expected “one-score game with 22 minutes left.” Ohio State hit the gas and put this one to bed, but this team clearly hasn’t reached its final form yet.
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and seventh
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.2%
What the Nittany Lions did in Week 3: def. Villanova, 52-6
Penn State pulled a Penn State on Saturday, starting slowly against a lesser opponent before eventually steamrolling them. The Nittany Lions have yet to face a team ranked better than 112th in SP+, but that changes very soon: After a Week 4 bye, they’ll host Oregon in a loaded Week 5.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 20th and 15th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.6%
What the Aggies did in Week 3: def. No. 8 Notre Dame, 41-40
Even as someone who leans heavily on stats, I’m allowed to listen to my gut sometimes, and my gut has been telling me A&M is for real since the preseason. If I believed that before the Aggies’ late rally in South Bend on Saturday night, I’m certainly going to keep believing it afterward.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 10th and 11th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.3%
What the Hurricanes did in Week 3: def. South Florida, 49-12
Miami treated upstart USF as an elite team is supposed to. The Hurricanes’ defense was a bit more bend-don’t-break than I would like to see, but a ruthless offense rolled up 576 yards and didn’t allow the Bulls to ever feel as though they had a foot in the game.
SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and fourth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.5%
What the Bulldogs did in Week 3: def. No. 15 Tennessee, 44-41 (OT)
In their past three wins against power-conference opponents, Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs have had to go to overtime each time. Is that sustainable? No. Has Georgia shown signs of slippage over the past two seasons? Absolutely. Do I ever feel particularly good picking against them? Absolutely not.
SP+ and FPI rankings: fifth and eighth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 6.5%
What the Rebels did in Week 3: def. Arkansas, 41-35
Forced to face a prolific Arkansas team without their starting quarterback, the Rebels laced up their track shoes and won a wild one all the same. Trinidad Chambliss enjoyed an epic star turn, and after three tight losses kept Ole Miss out of the CFP last season, they’ve nabbed a pair of tight wins early in 2025.
8. USC (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: ninth and fifth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.3%
What the Trojans did in Week 3: def. Purdue, 33-17
The poll voters have been slow to trust USC this season. The computers? Not so much. The Trojans blew out two cupcakes to start the season, then survived a tricky, storm-delayed test at Purdue with defensive playmaking. That’s right! I said defensive playmaking! USC!
9. LSU (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 17th and 19th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Florida, 20-10
On one hand, they’re 3-0, and they’ve already beaten two teams ranked 31st or higher in SP+ (Clemson and Florida). On the other hand, the offense has been a painful disappointment, and the Tigers needed five interceptions to put away a 20-10 win over the Gators. Surviving and advancing is what’s important, but that will get harder if LSU can’t top 24 points.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 33rd and 27th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Seminoles did in Week 3: bye week
Metrics are programmed to avoid overreacting to small samples as much as possible, so last year’s 2-10 campaign is still pretty large in the rearview mirror for SP+ and FPI. The eyeballs, however, think the Noles are just dandy. That Week 6 matchup with Miami looks awfully intriguing, doesn’t it?
SP+ and FPI rankings: 11th and 12th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Louisiana, 52-10
Mizzou has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 12.6 points per game, and after Saturday’s steamrolling of Louisiana, the Tigers are averaging 302.3 rushing yards per game. Handle South Carolina as projected next week, and they should be unbeaten when Bama comes to town in Week 7.
SP+ and FPI rankings: seventh and 13th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Sooners did in Week 3: def. Temple, 42-3
The offense went into cruise control a hair early at Temple on Saturday, but the Sooners’ defense has allowed just 19 total points in three games. This is what a Brent Venables team was supposed to look like; now they have a chance to score another ranked win next week when Auburn comes to town.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 12th and 26th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.9%
What the Red Raiders did in Week 3: def. Oregon State, 45-14
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders have played just about the softest set of opponents in FBS. They’ve also beaten those soft opponents by a combined 174-35. That’s still pretty telling. Behren Morton is putting up Air Raid-style passing numbers, and the defense hasn’t allowed a non-garbage-time point. Hard to top that.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 16th and 23rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What the Illini did in Week 3: def. Western Michigan, 38-0
The offense took its time shifting into gear against WMU on Saturday, but the defense has allowed 22 points in three games. The next time you think something in your life feels impossible, just step back and realize that unbeaten Illinois is playing unbeaten Indiana this Saturday in an enormous game with playoff implications, and that the two teams are a combined 27-5 since the start of 2024. If that’s possible, anything is.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 13th and 16th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.0%
What the Hoosiers did in Week 3: def. Indiana State, 73-0
My favorite tidbit from the weekend: Not only did IU’s Omar Cooper Jr. go off for 10 catches and 207 yards against poor, outmatched Indiana State on Friday night, he also caught TD passes from two different Mendozas (Fernando and Alberto).
SP+ and FPI rankings: 27th and 21st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. No. 11 South Carolina, 31-7
Yes, the Commodores’ surprising blowout of the Gamecocks was impacted by an injury to South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers (which came from a hit deemed targeting). But Vandy was winning when Sellers got hurt and has outscored two power-conference opponents by a combined 65-7 in its past six quarters.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 38th and 33rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.4%
What the Yellow Jackets did in Week 3: def. No. 12 Clemson, 24-21
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets against ranked opponents: 7-1.
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets against unranked opponents: 14-15.
Does this make sense? No. Is it utterly delightful? Yes. (And has Tech overachieved against SP+ projections in all three games thus far? Also yes.)
18. Utah (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 18th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.7%
What the Utes did in Week 3: def. Wyoming, 31-6
Missed field goals and a turnover kept Utah from pulling away from Wyoming until well into the second half Saturday, but instead of getting Laramie’d, the Utes kept their heads and laid the hammer down. It’s probably pretty easy to keep your head when you know you have a defense as good as Utah’s on your side.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 26th and 43rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.2%
What the Cardinals did in Week 3: bye week
Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals have played almost precisely to SP+ projections thus far. If they keep that up, it’s going to be an awfully fun fall in Louisville considering they’re projected favorites in nine of their final 10 games.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 23rd and 34th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.7%
What the Cyclones did in Week 3: def. Arkansas State, 24-16
ISU’s Saturday trip to Jonesboro was … strange. The Cyclones averaged 7.7 yards per play with a robust 52.5% success rate, and they held ASU to 16 points. But they still had to make two fourth-quarter stops to secure a win thanks to a couple of missed opportunities and a pretty slow tempo. Regardless, they’re 4-0, and they finally get a welcome week off.
21. TCU (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 24th and 25th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Horned Frogs did in Week 3: def. Abilene Christian, 42-21
The Frogs only beat ACU by 21 despite being projected as 39-point favorites. A major letdown? Not really. They were up 28-0 at half and outgained the Wildcats 444-157 before garbage time set in. Sonny Dykes’ squad is taking care of business quickly in 2025.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 19th and 20th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. South Alabama, 31-15
Against a tricky and athletic South Alabama team, Auburn raced to an early lead, and while the Tigers never quite landed the knockout blow, they should be able to close out an unbeaten nonconference slate for the first time in six years. (Only Mercer remains.) That’s what we call progress.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 21st and 17th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Cornhuskers did in Week 3: def. Houston Christian, 59-7
Since an entirely unconvincing Week 1 win over Cincinnati, the Huskers have mauled two outmatched opponents (Akron and HCU) by a combined 127-7. Is that a sign of improvement or simply a sign that they can maul outmatched opponents? We’ll find out soon enough: Michigan comes to Lincoln this Saturday.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 51st and 47th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Green Wave did in Week 3: def. Duke, 34-27
Jon Sumrall’s Green Wave nearly let things get messy Saturday night, watching an 18-point lead shrink to seven in the final minute. But they still got the job done, and they still have a pair of power-conference victories on the résumé. No one else in the Group of 5 can say that. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff was one hell of a summer pickup.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 32nd and 29th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What the Huskies did in Week 3: bye week
Few teams have backfields with more dynamic combos than Washington with Demond Williams Jr. and Jonah Coleman. The Huskies get to face one more sketchy defense (Washington State’s) before the grind really begins. So far so good, however, in Jedd Fisch’s second season.
26. BYU (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 28th and 22nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What the Cougars did in Week 3: bye week
True freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has looked like a true freshman, and that will probably catch up to the Cougars in a Big 12 loaded with even matchups and close games. But their defense has been downright mean thus far, and few teams are more physical in the trenches.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 29th and 36th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 8.7%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Troy, 28-7
The Tigers haven’t had the marquee opportunities that conference mates Tulane and USF have seen thus far, but they’re the top-ranked Group of 5 team in both SP+ and FPI, and they get their shot this weekend. With maybe their best defense in more than a decade, they’ll try to slow down a torrid Arkansas attack in Fayetteville.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 39th and 38th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Wildcats did in Week 3: def. Kansas State, 23-17
Good news for Arizona fans: Your team is pretty good again! Bad news: Of the Wildcats’ nine remaining games, eight are projected as one-score affairs, per SP+. Anxiety potential is off the charts. They have a puncher’s chance at 11-1 or 12-0, but 4-8 or 5-7 are still on the table too.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 43rd and 60th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.03%
What the Terrapins did in Week 3: def. Towson, 44-17
Freshman quarterback Malik Washington is holding up, and the defense has overachieved against projections in two of three games. I don’t know where Maryland is going to end up this season, but this team’s ceiling is quite a bit higher than it seemed a few weeks ago.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 50th and 49th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What the Cougars did in Week 3: def. Colorado, 36-20
The defense hasn’t fallen off at all under new coordinator Austin Armstrong, and while the offense isn’t amazing, quarterback Conner Weigman (222 passing yards, 83 rushing yards) was awfully solid against Colorado on Friday night.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 45th and 42nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Bulldogs did in Week 3: def. Alcorn State, 63-0
The Bulldogs probably aren’t going to win many more games this season — after this week’s matchup with Northern Illinois, they’ll face eight straight opponents ranked in the SP+ top 30 — but after a dismal first season under Jeff Lebby, they’re decidedly decent, and they’ll have a shot at eking out bowl eligibility.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 46th and 44th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Scarlet Knights did in Week 3: def. Norfolk State, 60-10
An offense that ranks ninth in points per possession and a defense that ranks 83rd? What in the name of Greg Schiano is going on here? The Scarlet Knights, unrecognizable as they may be, will have a chance to stay on this list for a while with close upcoming games against Iowa, Minnesota and Washington.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 53rd and 58th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Golden Bears did in Week 3: def. Minnesota, 27-14
It will take an upset to knock freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the Golden Bears off this list: After Saturday night’s upset-that-didn’t-look-like-an-upset over Minnesota, they’re projected favorites in each of their next six games.
34. Navy (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 49th and 68th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What the Midshipmen did in Week 3: def. Tulsa, 42-23
Quarterback Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen just continue to cruise right along. They’re now 13-3 since the start of 2024, and while trips to North Texas, Notre Dame and Memphis loom late in the season, they’re projected favorites in their next five games.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 56th and 53rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.04%
What the Wolfpack did in Week 3: def. Wake Forest, 34-24
Dave Doeren’s resilient Wolfpack trailed both Virginia and Wake Forest midway through the third quarter but allowed a combined seven second-half points in the two games and eventually pulled off wins. The pass defense scares me, and the offense is pretty all-or-nothing, but this is a confident, 60-minute team.
36. UCF (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 59th and 48th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.01%
What the Knights did in Week 3: bye week
Scott Frost has won 15 straight games as UCF’s head coach, dating back to his first tenure. The offense scored only 17 points against Jacksonville State in Week 1, but the defense has been legit thus far, and Frost could become the second collegiate head coach to hand Bill Belichick a loss this Saturday.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 66th and 67th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.7%
What the Mean Green did in Week 3: def. Washington State, 59-10
On Saturday, North Texas laid down maybe the best performance of any G5 team this season. The Mean Green were about 7-point favorites against Washington State and won by seven touchdowns instead. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker‘s next poor performance will be his first in college.
38. UNLV (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 76th and 65th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.2%
What the Rebels did in Week 3: bye week
Dan Mullen’s first UNLV team is learning and growing, from a narrow defeat of Idaho State in Week 0 to a win over UCLA in Week 2. (Granted, New Mexico’s Week 3 pummeling of the Bruins made that look less impressive.) Now come tricky trips to Miami (Ohio) and Wyoming.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 58th and 69th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Spartans did in Week 3: def. Youngstown State, 41-24
Like Louisville, Jonathan Smith’s Spartans have basically played precisely to projections in 2025. Unlike Louisville, it won’t be great if that continues: They’re projected underdogs against eight of nine Big Ten opponents.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
• Marshall (up 7.0 adjusted points per game, ranking rose from 123rd to 99th)
• Penn State (up 6.3 points, rose from seventh to first)
• UTSA (up 6.0 points, rose from 90th to 67th)
• Stanford (up 5.8 points, rose from 103rd to 86th)
• Miami (up 5.5 points, rose from 27th to 10th)
It’s been a really funky year in FBS-versus-FCS games. We’ve seen enough strangely unimpressive performances — Georgia vs. Austin Peay, for example — that teams seem to be getting extra credit for dominating decent FCS opponents. This week’s top three movers, for instance, beat three top-40 FCS teams by a combined 138-33 and charged upward. It is what it is, I guess.
The other two teams on the list, however, surprised in different ways. Miami handled its business against everyone’s favorite Group of 5 team (USF), while Stanford shut out a decent Boston College team in the second half to win with shocking comfort, 30-20.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
• South Carolina (down 8.9 adjusted points per game, ranking fell from 12th to 48th)
• Central Michigan (down 8.3 points, fell from 119th to 132nd)
• Washington State (down 8.0 points, fell from 76th to 103rd)
• New Mexico State (down 6.9 points, fell from 109th to 125th)
• Appalachian State (down 6.1 points, fell from 84th to 100th)
There’s no “your quarterback got hurt in the second quarter” adjustment in the SP+ formula, so South Carolina’s jarring 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt as a projected 9.5-point favorite resulted in an absolute plummet. It’s probably not a surprise that Washington State fell by a similar amount after a 59-10 no-show at North Texas.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
For the third straight week, we have an almost completely new top 10:
1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (21-for-29 passing for 353 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 64 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Arkansas).
2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (23-for-31 passing for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 48 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Tennessee).
3. Taylen Green, Arkansas (22-for-35 passing for 305 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 115 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Ole Miss).
4. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24-for-29 passing for 382 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 39 non-sack rushing yards against Wisconsin).
5. Jake Retzlaff, Tulane (15-for-23 passing for 245 yards, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Duke).
6. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (22 carries for 250 yards and 3 TDs against Louisiana).
7. Behren Morton, Texas Tech (23-for-35 passing for 464 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT against Oregon State).
8. Eric Gentry, USC (8 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against Purdue).
9. Mario Craver, Texas A&M (7 catches for 207 yards and 1 TD against Notre Dame).
10. Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (16-for-22 passing for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Virginia Tech).
Considering how many SEC quarterbacks have played disappointing ball this season – Texas’ Arch Manning, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Florida’s DJ Lagway, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers – it’s pretty incredible that four other SEC QBs were no-brainers for the top five this week. All of them had a case for No. 1 (as did Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff, honestly), but I went with the sentimental choice. You know I love the smaller-school guys, and watching former Division II star Trinidad Chambliss, a Ferris State transfer, light up Arkansas with deep ball after deep ball (and a few nice runs) made me very happy.
Honorable mention:
• Damon Bankston, New Mexico (15 carries for 154 yards and a TD, plus 49 receiving yards and another TD against UCLA).
• Carson Beck, Miami (23-for-28 passing for 340 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 32 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against USF)
• Chris Brazzell, Tennessee (6 catches for 177 yards and 3 TDs against Georgia).
• Omar Cooper, Indiana (10 catches for 207 yards and 4 TDs against Indiana State).
• John Henry Dailey, Utah (six tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Wyoming).
• Josh Hoover, TCU (21-for-27 passing for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns against Abilene Christian).
• Ismail Mahdi, Arizona (22 carries for 189 yards, plus 32 receiving yards against Kansas State).
• E. Jai Mason, Charlotte (10 catches for 228 yards and 2 TDs against Monmouth).
• Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19-for-20 passing for 270 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Indiana State).
• Bryce Underwood, Michigan (16-for-25 passing for 235 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 114 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Central Michigan).
Through three weeks, here are your points leaders:
1T. QB Taylen Green, Arkansas (15 points)
1T. QB Ty Simpson, Alabama (15 points)
3T. QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (10 points)
3T. RB Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)
3T. QB Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
6T. QB Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)
6T. QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (nine points)
6T. DB Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)
10. QB Parker Navarro, Ohio (eight points)
Three weeks in, and this list still makes no sense. This has been a very unusual season thus far. The only two players to show up on this list twice so far are Green and Simpson, and that certainly isn’t something I would have guessed when the season began (or after Simpson struggled so much in Week 1 against Florida State). On we go, into the back half of September, and the Heisman race hasn’t even really begun yet.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
Once again, I couldn’t hold my 10 Favorite Games list to 10 games. Saturday was absolutely glorious. You could have had about a six-way tie at No. 1.
1-2. No. 16 Texas A&M 41, No. 8 Notre Dame 40 and No. 17 Ole Miss 41, Arkansas 35. These were basically the same games, only Texas A&M actually scored at the end, while Arkansas lost a fumble and came up 25 yards short. Regardless, both games topped 900 total yards, and each had about 38 plot twists. Absolutely delightful.
3. No. 6 Georgia 44, No. 15 Tennessee 41 (OT). A surefire No. 1 in a normal week. This one had 998 total yards and what felt like a couple of different knockout blows. And crowd reaction shots. So many great crowd reaction shots.
4. Georgia Tech 24, No. 12 Clemson 21. Now I’m mad at myself. How is this one not No. 1?? It only had the smoothest game-winning, 55-yard fire-drill field goal you’ll ever see …
0:27
Aidan Birr kicks 55-yard field goal
Aidan Birr kicks 55-yard field goal
5. Division III: Plymouth State 47, Worcester State 46. Up in Plymouth, New Hampshire, we got a D-III classic. Worcester State scored twice in the fourth quarter to take a 39-32 lead into the final minute, but Jacob Morris snagged a 52-yard Hail Mary at the buzzer, and after both teams traded overtime TDs, Greg Walker’s rush gave the Panthers a thrilling win.
Hail Mary alert!!!!! Jacob Morris hauled in a 52 yard heave from Braden Lynn to help force OT in a game the Panthers would eventually win 47-46!! #d3fb #SCTop10 #d3playbook @mascacsports pic.twitter.com/5I0D8KWvqe
— Plymouth St. Sports (@PSUPanthers) September 13, 2025
6. West Virginia 31, Pitt 24 (OT). A Backyard Brawl featuring a 10-point comeback in the final 10 minutes, overtime and an exultant Rich Rodriguez? And it was sixth? What a week.
7-8. FCS: NC A&T 33, Hampton 30 (2OT) and Grambling 37, Kentucky State 31 (OT). The HBCU universe always delivers. North Carolina A&T trailed Hampton by 10 with one minute left and was all but assured of a 13th straight loss, but a patented touchdown-onside kick-field goal combo forced overtime, and Wesley Graves‘ second-OT touchdown finished an absolute heist.
Grambling, meanwhile, spotted D-II opponent Kentucky State leads of 14-0 early and 31-24 late, but C’zavian Teasett forced overtime with a TD run with 10 seconds left, and overtime gave us one of the best phrases in the sport: walk-off fumble return.
TYRELL RABY!!! FORCES THE FUMBLE AND RETURNS IT FOR THE GAME WINNING TOUCHDOWN!!!
TIGERS WIN!!!#GramFam | #ThisIsTheG🐯 pic.twitter.com/xUkY7x6hQR
— Grambling State Football 🐯 (@GSUFootball01) September 14, 2025
The poor cameraman had no idea.
9. Delaware 44, UConn 41 (OT). It seemed like UConn had finally taken control after falling into an early 21-10 hole, but a big Nick Minicucci-to-Kyre Duplessis pass set up a game-tying 43-yard field goal for Delaware at the buzzer. And after UConn opened overtime with a field goal, the Blue Hens secured a lovely upset with a 13-yard Minicucci run up the middle.
10. NAIA: Louisiana Christian 43, Wayland Baptist 37. It isn’t just that the teams combined for 36 fourth-quarter points. It’s that basically all the points came from fireworks. Wayland Baptist turned a 30-17 deficit into a 37-30 lead with touchdown passes of 79 and 27 yards and an 83-yard fumble return, but Louisiana Christian turned right around and tied the game on a 24-yard touchdown pass, then won it on a 31-yard Jaterrius Johns run with 1:33 left. It was almost surprising that WBU couldn’t squeeze in one more score at the end.
11. Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13. After a hopeless 0-2 start, MTSU found itself down 13-0 midway through the fourth quarter in Reno. But Nicholas Vattiato threw a touchdown pass to Nahzae Cox, then scored the winning touchdown run with 21 seconds left to create a hockey stick of a win probability chart.
12. Buffalo 31, Kent State 28. A game of runs: 14-0 Kent State, then 24-0 Buffalo, then 14-0 Kent State. Dru DeShields gave Kent State — a huge home underdog — a 28-24 lead with just 2:38 left, but Buffalo saved itself with a Ta’Quan Roberson-to-Victor Snow TD pass and a pair of late stops.
13-15. FCS: No. 19 Northern Arizona 52, Southern Utah 49; No. 7 Montana 24, No. 17 North Dakota 23; Weber State 42, McNeese State 41. The Big Sky delivered a trio of thrillers. Weber State nearly blew a 42-21 lead in the final 10 minutes of a big-play festival but stopped a last-minute 2-point conversion to survive. Montana, meanwhile, had to dig out of a 23-14 hole in the last five minutes to win with a 28-yard Keali’i Ah Yat-to-Brooks Davis TD pass. And in Cedar City, Utah, Ty Pennington‘s 2-point conversion pass to Jayson Raines with 29 seconds left gave NAU a Grand Canyon Trophy win over host Southern Utah.
16. Charlotte 42, Monmouth 35. A tossup game on paper, this one saw five ties and wasn’t decided until Conner Harrell plunged into the end zone with 90 seconds left and Charlotte’s defense made a late stop.
17. Ball State 34, New Hampshire 29. Ball State was actually a home underdog in this one and gave up a blocked punt touchdown 67 seconds into the game. But running back Qua Ashley keyed a 27-7 Cardinals run, and the defense stopped UNH near midfield on its final possession.
18. Division III: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons 24, McMurry 19. In the battle for the Wilford Moore Trophy, these Abilene rivals went down to the wire. Hardin-Simmons took a 24-6 lead into halftime, but McMurry charged back and had a chance to win until Caden Sampson-Stuckey’s fourth-down sack of Dylan Plake with 49 seconds left.
19-20. Division II: No. 25 Minnesota Duluth 17, No. 7 Minnesota State 14 and No. 24 Pittsburg State 17, No. 3 Grand Valley State 14. Two top-10 teams in Division II fell by the same score almost simultaneously Saturday evening. First, Minnesota-Duluth’s Jadon Apgar hit a 25-yard field goal at the buzzer to beat Minnesota State in Duluth; a few minutes later, GVSU imploded, throwing an interception with 5:04 left, then committing two fourth-down penalties to allow host Pitt State to run out the clock. Ouch.
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