‘He looks happy’: Has Juan Soto finally found a home with the Yankees?
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
WHEN JUAN SOTO began to initiate himself with the New York Yankees, his third team in less than two years, the takeaway from those who observed it was how seamless it felt — how comfortable he looked, how easily he found his voice, how quickly it seemed as if he had been there forever.
He’s getting better at this.
“It’s definitely easier than the first time,” Soto said with a laugh earlier this month, about two weeks after his first official workout as a Yankee. “The first time, it was really tough.”
It can be jarring to consider Soto — the accomplishments he has had, the legends he has been compared to, the trades he has been at the center of — and realize he is only 25 years old, younger than Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman, Toronto’s Bo Bichette and Atlanta’s Austin Riley. Before Soto, no player had ever made three All-Star teams and been traded twice before the age of 26.
The latest brought him to his sport’s most decorated franchise, for whom he’ll debut in an Opening Day matchup against the rival Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Thursday afternoon. The Yankees will pair Soto with fellow superstar Aaron Judge in hopes of revitalizing a lineup that often looked listless amid an 82-win, playoff-less season last year. But only the 2024 season is promised. After it ends, Soto will venture into the free agent market, potentially on the move once more.
There was a time, not too long ago, when Soto thought his career would be a steady and continuous ascension, the type reserved for only a select few of the game’s greatest. Debuting at 19, winning the World Series after his age-20 season, claiming a batting title at 21 and drawing comparisons to Ted Williams by 22 will do that. He has since had to grapple with interruption, calamity, imperfection. He believes he has been hardened by it.
“The Nationals showed me the business side of the game,” Soto said, “and I’m just glad they showed me that.”
Soto spent an entire morning crying after being traded away from the Washington Nationals, the team that signed him, shaped him, watched him become a star and helped make him a champion. In the aftermath of his trade from the San Diego Padres 16 months later, in December 2023, he was unemotional, fully adept at navigating the cold realities of professional sports.
“I’ve been growing a lot,” Soto said. “On the business side, I’ve been learning a lot of things — about different organizations, different cultures. I think I’ve been learning from that. I’m happy I’m learning that way, so that whenever I get to one spot I know how to react whenever I get around a clubhouse that is going to be different.”
Barring an unexpected extension with the Yankees, Soto, a Scott Boras client, will become baseball’s most coveted free agent in a little more than seven months. Given the heavy deferrals in Shohei Ohtani‘s contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers — he signed for $700 million, but the present-day value, based on how it impacts the competitive balance tax payroll, sits at $460 million — Soto still has a chance to sign the richest contract in baseball history.
But what he wants more than anything is stability.
“That’s the best thing for me,” Soto said. “Stay in one place and try to, whenever I do this deal, just finish in that one spot.”
THE DETAILS OF professional sports contracts are often public, forcing athletes to live with the pressure of how much money they make. Few, though, have to live with the pressure of how much money they turn down. Soto lived that reality in the summer of 2022, during a 17-day window that began with the revelation that he declined a 15-year, $440 million extension from the Nationals on July 16 and ended with his trade to the Padres on Aug. 2.
The noise didn’t just come from fans and media, but from friends and family, many of them miffed by how anyone, let alone a person with such humble beginnings, could turn down generational wealth.
“It was days,” Soto said, “where I’d wake up and I’d get so many text messages, calls, phone calls, everything, that it just made you not even want to go to the field.”
Roughly 17 months later, the anger over all of it becoming public still feels fresh.
“I was a guy who was loyal to the team,” Soto said. “I always tried to say, ‘Anything we do business-wise, it was just between the team and myself.’ And it was really shocking for me, it was really tough for me. It was really frustrating at the same time, because I really trusted that team. I gave all my trust to be able to negotiate and do things like that, and when you see stuff like that, you just feel so bad. It was really uncomfortable.”
The Nationals’ extension offer, which didn’t come with any deferrals, would stand as baseball’s second-largest contract even today. But its average annual value, $29.3 million, would rank Soto behind 18 other players this season. Given the combined $54 million he will make in his last two arbitration years, Soto projects to do better than that in free agency, especially with another MVP-caliber year in 2024. Any free agent deal exceeding $386 million would net him more money in the aggregate.
Just as big a deterrent as the average annual value for Soto, though, was that the Nationals were for sale at the time.
“You’re being offered a contract from a faceless owner,” Boras said in a phone conversation. “And Juan Soto didn’t want to place his career in that position, because he really wanted to know who he was going to be working with for years to come.”
“People can judge you, but at the end of the day, it’s you who has to feel comfortable,” said retired outfielder Nelson Cruz, a confidant of Soto’s with the Nationals in 2022 who briefly joined him with the Padres in 2023. “That made me really proud of him, to see him figure out, ‘It’s me who has to deal with it.’ It was great to see him grow up as a player, grow up on the business side, because he understood his value and what he’s worth. He’s very educated with that. I hope he gets what he wants.”
Once he arrived in San Diego, Soto said, “all the noise just stopped.” But the 2022 season still saw him finish with only a .242 batting average and a .452 slugging percentage, by far the lowest marks of his career. The Padres won anyway, making it all the way to the National League Championship Series. The ensuing offseason saw them sign Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract. Later, near the end of February, Manny Machado was given an 11-year, $350 million extension.
It seemed like the Padres — also tied long-term to Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish — didn’t have any more millions to give. But Soto said he maintained hope of staying, too. His conversations with owner Peter Seidler made him believe it was possible.
“He really wanted me to be part of the team,” Soto said.
Boras saved his last exchange with Seidler, a short text message from Nov. 2. In it, Seidler, who late in the season had undergone an undisclosed medical procedure, wrote that he was “improving steadily” and that though doctors had told him to stay off his phone, “I’m going to keep in touch with you anyway.” Twelve days later, Seidler died. Sources familiar with the team’s thinking believe the Padres ultimately would have had no choice but to trade Soto; it was their best — and perhaps only — route to adding starting-pitching depth and getting their payroll below $200 million, two clear goals at the start of the offseason. But many wonder if Seidler would have found a way to keep Soto regardless.
“I only know everything that Peter said to me,” Boras said. “Peter Seidler always said to me that Juan Soto will be on his team. He said it 50 times to me — ‘Juan Soto will be on my team.'”
SOTO HAS SAID all the right things about becoming a Yankee. But he hasn’t been as effusive as one might expect for what feels like such a natural fit — a magnetic, star-level player for a premier franchise. Some have rationalized it as another bargaining move, not unlike Soto’s decision to turn down the Nationals’ final offer; a way to maintain leverage in the lead-up to a free agency that will include the crosstown New York Mets, among others, as aggressive suitors.
It might be something else, though: a defense mechanism. Soto doesn’t want to get hurt again, and so he won’t allow himself to.
“That’s how things go,” Soto said. “You definitely love where you’re at, you’re definitely happy, excited with where you’re going to be and how the team’s going to be — but they show you you cannot fall in love, like I did with the Nationals. I was more than excited to be there, and they just cracked everything open and let me go.”
Boras has had precisely 52 meetings with Soto (“I keep track of them,” he said) to go over “the economics of the game and his value in it.” Soto is not just one of the best hitters of this era; at a time when players constantly sacrifice strikeouts to keep up with the high velocities and elevated spin rates of the modern game, his combination of patience and power is unmatched. Soto drew a major-league-leading 412 walks from 2021 to 2023, 136 more than the second-place Kyle Schwarber, but also accumulated 91 home runs, tied for 15th. His adjusted OPS of 157 is the fifth highest all-time through a player’s age-24 season, trailing only Ty Cobb, Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle and Jimmie Foxx, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
That he’ll be a free agent at 26 years old only adds to the possibility that his next contract will reach the $500 million threshold that had been so elusive until Ohtani. Soto, though, cares about the length of his new deal at least as much as he cares about the value attached to it. It’ll be the first contract he signs, but he also wants it to be his last.
“At the end of the day, everybody wants to be where they’re going to finish their career,” Soto said. “This free agency was really tough for a lot of players, but I think if you ask any guy in the clubhouse, anywhere, they will be happy to be in a long-term deal and try to finish their career where they can be. That’s the best thing for me — to stay in one place and try to, whenever I do this deal, just finish in that one spot.”
Soto brought up his four most prominent ex-teammates — Machado, Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper. Machado, Bogaerts and Turner each signed 11-year deals that carry them through their age-40 season; Harper signed a 13-year contract after hitting free agency at a similar age as Soto will. All have full no-trade clauses.
“Long contracts,” Soto said, “because they know they’re going to finish their career right there. Anything can happen in the future. Maybe they get traded. But that’s going to be on them if they want to get traded, instead of going to free agency and trying the market again. They just know they’re going to be there for a long time.”
YANKEES GENERAL MANAGER Brian Cashman lowered the expectations early. On the first day of spring training, when he met with the New York media, he essentially stated that, barring something unforeseen, Soto will play out the 2024 season in the Bronx and then become a free agent. It was a reaction to a conversation Boras had with managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner shortly after the trade, during which Boras relayed Soto’s desire to “learn what it’s like to be a Yankee” before making a long-term commitment.
It was also an acknowledgment of the obvious.
“Scott Boras is his agent,” Cashman said plainly. “Scott takes his guys to free agency. That’s typically what he does. It’s just reading the landscape and recognizing that that is the most realistic avenue. It doesn’t mean that’s what’s going to happen. I don’t rule it out. But I just feel like under-promise, overperform is probably, in the New York market, the best thing you can do.”
The Yankees are expected to be aggressive in their efforts to bring Soto back this offseason, even if it means giving him a contract that tops the one signed by their captain, Judge, who landed a nine-year, $360 million deal as a 30-year-old in December 2022.
The results of 2024 could have a lot of sway.
The Yankees are coming off one of their most disappointing seasons in recent memory and will be without their ace, Gerrit Cole, until at least May or June while he recovers from what has been diagnosed as nerve inflammation and edema in his right elbow. Soto has never needed to be more of a difference-maker, and the early signs were promising. His first seven Grapefruit League games saw him hit four home runs, leaving his new team in awe.
“I feel like he’s going to kill the ball every time he swings,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said at the time.
“I knew I would enjoy watching him,” Cole said, “but I love watching him.”
There are no questions surrounding Soto’s ability to hit, but there are plenty surrounding his ability to defend, so much so that there are already talks — among fans, but also among scouts and executives — about him eventually transitioning to designated hitter, perhaps sooner than later. It’s the one aspect of his game that could prevent the massive contract he once seemed pre-ordained for, and he knows it.
“I want to show people that I can play outfield, I can play defense,” Soto said. “I saw those comments and everything, that they say I’m not going to be [much] longer in the outfield. But I feel like I can.”
By Statcast’s Run Value metric, Soto was a minus-30 from 2018 to 2023, though the number was heavily skewed by an abysmal showing in 2022. He was worth four outs above average in 2021, but minus-16 in 2022 and minus-9 in 2023. In hopes of getting him closer to the metrics of three years ago, Yankees outfield coach Luis Rojas spent a large portion of spring training working with Soto on pre-pitch techniques in hopes of improving his first step, usually by taking live reads during batting practice. His desire to improve has been obvious.
“I noticed that from the first day we talked,” Rojas said. “You can sense it right away, when a player takes over a conversation and basically owns it. You see the sense of responsibility that he has for his career, in all areas.”
Cruz sees Soto as the prototypical Yankee, for reasons that extend far beyond a short right-field porch. Cruz, 43, spent 19 years in the big leagues and struggled to find someone more focused, more disciplined and more mature than Soto. Those traits, while coupled with a strong demeanor and a hard exterior, have at times distanced Soto from teammates, as some around the Padres can attest to. But Cruz believes they’ll be a major benefit under New York’s magnifying glass.
“The fans are going to love him,” said Cruz, now an adviser with the Dodgers. “He’s the type of player the Yankees are looking for.”
Soto made fast friends with fellow outfielder Alex Verdugo, his new throwing partner and locker mate at the Yankees’ spring training complex in Tampa, Florida. One locker over was Trent Grisham, the veteran center fielder who came over with Soto in the most recent trade. Grisham was on the same Padres team where Soto admittedly struggled to adapt and was surprised to see Soto now so comfortable, so at ease, at such an early stage with the Yankees. He told him as much before the end of the first week.
“He looks happy,” Grisham said a few days later. “He looks excited.”
He’s done this before.
MONTREAL — Alex Ovechkin padded his NHL goals record and moved up a couple other big lists in the Washington Capitals‘ 8-4 romp over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night.
Ovechkin had his 33rd career hat trick to tie Brett Hull for fourth in NHL history and added an assist as he moved past Joe Sakic into 10th on the points list.
Ovechkin has 10 goals in 21 games this season to push his NHL-record to 907. The 40-year-old Russian has 1,643 points, two more than Sakic.
“I just try to do my job and try to enjoy the moment and enjoy the time,” Ovechkin said.
Ovechkin opened the scoring on a power play a minute into the first period, firing a wrist shot past goalie Sam Montembeault off a faceoff. Ovechkin assisted on Ethen Frank‘s goal two minutes into the second that gave the Capitals the lead for good at 2-1.
The Washington star scored twice late in the third period, the first on a rush with 4:57 to go and the second into an empty net from his own zone with 2:04 remaining. He has scored in four straight games and has seven goals in his last six games.
“After everything he’s done we’re still amazed at what he can do, and I’m sure he’s not close to slowing down,” Frank said of Ovechkin.
Ovechkin is the second player in NHL history with six goals in a four-game span at age 40 or older, according to ESPN Research.
Coming off a 7-4 home victory over Edmonton on Wednesday night, Washington has won three in a row to improve to 11-8-2. It was the Capitals’ lone road game in an eight-game span.
Montreal has lost five straight and seven of eight.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
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