
MLB Opening Day is here! What we’re watching, lineups and live updates from every game
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adminWelcome to MLB Opening Day!
All 30 teams were scheduled to be in action Thursday before rain postponed the scheduled Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets and Atlanta Braves–Philadelphia Phillies openers to Friday.
The Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles got things started with new O’s ace Corbin Burnes on the mound at 3:05 p.m. ET. Soon after, things really heated up with seven games scheduled to begin at 4:10 p.m. ET — highlighted by a New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros showdown in Texas.
Later, the Texas Rangers will raise the first World Series banner in franchise history before taking on the Chicago Cubs in manager Craig Counsell’s team debut (7:35 p.m. ET on ESPN). And, if that wasn’t enough, there are a trio of late-night games on the West Coast, including Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners against the Boston Red Sox at 10:10 p.m. ET.
What are we looking for as the season gets started? Our reporters give their pregame takes from the ballpark, plus we’ll post lineups as they are announced and live updates throughout the day, including takeaways from each game as it concludes.
Season preview: Power rankings | Predictions | Moves that rocked offseason
MLB Rank 2024: Who are baseball’s 100 best players? | Snubs, surprises
ESPN+: Passan’s bold predictions, breakout stars | 2024 MLB payroll tiers
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Live updates | Storylines & lineups
Postponed games: MIL-NYM, ATL-PHI
Live updates from every Opening Day game
What to watch, lineups for every Opening Day game
First pitch: 3:05 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Patrick Sandoval vs. Corbin Burnes
The big storyline: The best regular-season team in the American League last year unveils its newest star while the team that lost the biggest one in the game starts anew. Burnes’ Baltimore debut is the main attraction of the afternoon, though after the Orioles ran roughshod through the Grapefruit League, the biggest question is: How good can they be? Extremely is the answer, particularly with the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball, Jackson Holliday, starting the season at Triple-A after slashing .311/.354/.600 in spring training.
Sandoval gets his first Opening Day start after Shohei Ohtani got the nod the past two years. Ohtani’s absence hangs over the Angels, whose lineup includes the return of Mike Trout from the hamate bone injury that kept him out all but one game over the season’s final three months and a menagerie of top prospects and high draft picks.
One fun fact to impress your friends: In his NL Cy Young-winning 2021 season, Burnes started the year with 58 strikeouts before yielding his first walk. He surpassed the previous record of 51, held by Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen. The streak broke another mark: 56 consecutive walk-free strikeouts at any point in the season, held by Gerrit Cole and Curt Schilling. Against the 127th batter he faced, St. Louis utilityman Tommy Edman, Burnes walked him on five pitches. — Jeff Passan
Angels lineup
Anthony Rendon (R) 3B
Aaron Hicks (S) RF
Mike Trout (R) CF
Taylor Ward (R) LF
Brandon Drury (R) 2B
Nolan Schanuel (L) 1B
Miguel Sano (R) DH
Logan O’Hoppe (R) C
Zach Neto (R) SS
Orioles lineup
Gunnar Henderson (L) SS
Adley Rutschman (S) C
Ryan Mountcastle (R) 1B
Anthony Santander (S) RF
Austin Hays (R) LF
Jordan Westburg (R) DH
Cedric Mullins (L) CF
Ramon Urias (R) 3B
Jorge Mateo (R) 2B
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Tarik Skubal vs. Garrett Crochet
The big storyline: The Tigers have been rebuilding for a long time — their last winning season came way back in 2016 — but maybe this is the season they finally break through. They have a couple of interesting rookies joining the lineup in second baseman Colt Keith (the No. 40 overall prospect) and center fielder Parker Meadows (No. 45). Keith is more bat over glove while Meadows is a tooled-up 6-foot-5 plus defender. But the Tigers’ playoff hopes may rest on a dominant season from Skubal, who went 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 11.4 K’s per nine in 15 starts last season. His fastball averaged 96.4 mph in his final spring training game and he could be a Cy Young contender.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: Crochet is one of the most unlikely Opening Day starters in MLB history, which tells you what to expect from the White Sox in 2024. He’s made 72 appearances in the majors, but all those came in relief, making him just the third pitcher since World War II to make his first career start on Opening Day. The others: Tanner Scheppers for the Rangers in 2014 and Fernando Valenzuela for the Dodgers in 1981. — David Schoenfield
Tigers lineup
Andy Ibanez (R) 3B
Spencer Torkelson (R) 1B
Riley Greene (L) LF
Mark Canha (R) DH
Matt Vierling (R) RF
Colt Keith (L) 2B
Jake Rogers (R) C
Javier Baez (R) SS
Parker Meadows (L) CF
White Sox lineup
Andrew Benintendi (L) LF
Yoan Moncada (S) 3B
Luis Robert Jr. (R) CF
Eloy Jimenez (R) DH
Andrew Vaughn (R) 1B
Paul DeJong (R) SS
Kevin Pillar (R) RF
Martin Maldonado (R) C
Nicky Lopez (L) 2B
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Pablo Lopez vs. Cole Ragans
The big storyline: One of these teams won the division last year, but fell in the ALDS. The other team matched a franchise record with 106 losses, finishing 31 games out of first place. One of these teams made around $110 million in free agent commitments this offseason; the other just $6.2 million. Who was who? Well, it was the bottom-feeding Royals who spent big over the winter while the Twins … not so much. Can Kansas City possibly close a 31-game deficit in one offseason? It’s a tall order, obviously, but at least the Royals behaved like a team trying to change its fortunes.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: According to ESPN BET, this pitching matchup pits two of the top seven AL Cy Young candidates. Lopez finished seventh a season ago while the emergent Ragans would have been a prime contender if he had put up his Kansas City-only numbers over a full season. Ragans was traded from Texas on June 30 and only four AL starters produced a lower ERA than his 2.64 mark after the All-Star break. — Bradford Doolittle
Twins lineup
Byron Buxton (R) CF
Ryan Jeffers (R) C
Royce Lewis (R) 3B
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Max Kepler (L) RF
Kyle Farmer (R) 2B
Willi Castro (S) LF
Manuel Margot (R) DH
Royals lineup
Maikel Garcia (R) 3B
Bobby Witt Jr. (R) SS
Vinnie Pasquantino (L) 1B
Salvador Perez (R) C
MJ Melendez (L) LF
Hunter Renfroe (R) RF
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Nelson Velazquez (R) DH
Kyle Isbel (L) CF
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET | ESPN+
The pitching matchup: Nestor Cortes vs. Framber Valdez
The big storyline: This is a meeting between two rivals expected to compete for the American League pennant. Both rosters are loaded with stars. Both feature intriguing young talents. Both teams splurged on premier talent from San Diego during the offseason (Juan Soto via trade on one side, Josh Hader via free agency on the other). The heated history, of course, is there.
But Thursday’s matchup in particular is as much about who isn’t playing. Former Astros teammates Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander would have been the opening day starters if not for injuries. Cole is dealing with nerve irritation and edema in his right elbow. Verlander had a setback with his right shoulder. Two left-handers looking to rebound from disappointing seasons will take the ball in their places.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: The Astros have reached the last seven American League Championship Series, one shy of the longest LCS streak in history. The Braves set the record in the ’90s, advancing to eight straight NLCS. Atlanta won one (1) World Series during that span. The Astros have won two. Yankees fans, of course, would argue that the title in 2017 would’ve been theirs if the Astros weren’t banging trash cans. New York instead hasn’t won a championship since 2009. It’s the franchise’s longest title drought since going without a parade between 1978 and 1996. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees lineup
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Juan Soto (L) RF
Aaron Judge (R) CF
Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH
Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Alex Verdugo (L) LF
Jose Trevino (R) C
Oswaldo Cabrera (S) 3B
Astros lineup
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Yordan Alvarez (L) DH
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Jose Abreu (R) 1B
Chas McCormick (R) LF
Yainer Diaz (R) C
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Jake Meyers (R) CF
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Mitch Keller vs. Jesus Luzardo
The big storyline: Oneil Cruz is back at shortstop for the Pirates after fracturing his ankle nine games into 2023 and he’s looked good in spring training with seven home runs, including several monstrous blasts. Henry Davis, the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, struggled as a rookie last season while moving from catcher to right field, but an offseason injury to Endy Rodriguez has Davis back behind the plate and he’s also had a good spring. Other young Pirates include pitcher Jared Jones, the team’s No. 3 prospect who cracked the Opening Day rotation, and Paul Skenes, last year’s No. 1 overall pick who shouldn’t need much time in the minors. If that group delivers, the Pirates have a chance to become this year’s Marlins as a surprise playoff team.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: It’s been a rough spring training for the Miami rotation as Braxton Garrett (shoulder), Eury Perez (elbow) and Edward Cabrera (shoulder) will all begin the season on the IL (on top of Sandy Alcantara already being out for the year). Luzardo will have to step up and he’s a sleeper Cy Young candidate after finishing in the top 10 among NL starters in ERA, strikeout rate and fWAR. — Schoenfield
Pirates lineup
Connor Joe (R) RF
Bryan Reynolds (S) LF
Ke’Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Henry Davis (R) C
Oneil Cruz (L) SS
Jared Triolo (R) 2B
Rowdy Tellez (L) 1B
Michael A. Taylor (R) CF
Marlins lineup
Luis Arraez (L) 2B
Josh Bell (S) 1B
Bryan De La Cruz (R) DH
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) CF
Jake Burger (R) 3B
Jesus Sanchez (L) RF
Tim Anderson (R) SS
Nick Gordon (L) LF
Nick Fortes (R) C
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Logan Webb vs. Yu Darvish
The big storyline: It’s a matchup of perhaps the two biggest curiosities in baseball this season. The Giants went from a projected fourth-place finish in the NL West to the third-best team in the NL by PECOTA’s projected standings with the signings of reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and third baseman Matt Chapman. San Francisco had a big winter — but was it really enough to turn them into a playoff team after two disappointing seasons?
The Padres are $60 million lighter in payroll with the trade of Juan Soto and free agent exits of Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and more. They added Dylan Cease and Michael King, bulked up their bullpen, continued their positional musical chairs and, after splitting their season-opening series in Korea with the Los Angeles Dodgers, have nearly the same question to answer: Was it really enough to turn them into a playoff team after a disappointing season?
One interesting fact to impress your friends: Like his former Kiwoom Heroes teammate Ha-Seong Kim, new Giants center fielder Jung Hoo Lee spent seven seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization before entering the posting system as a 25-year-old free agent. Kim walked (four-year, $28 million contract, which expires after this season) so Lee could run (six-year, $113 million deal). Lee has not been the home run hitter in Korea that Kim was, but a .340/.407/.491 line and impeccable pedigree — his dad is Korean baseball legend Jong-Beom Lee, nicknamed Son of the Wind — made the so-called Grandson of the Wind one of the KBO’s most popular players. Oh, and he slashed .414/.485/.586 this spring, so the hype may be real. — Passan
Giants lineup
Jung Hoo Lee (L) CF
Jorge Soler (R) DH
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 1B
Matt Chapman (R) 3B
Mike Yastrzemski (L) RF
Thairo Estrada (R) 2B
Michael Conforto (L) LF
Patrick Bailey (S) C
Nick Ahmed (R) SS
Padres lineup
Xander Bogaerts (R) 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B
Manny Machado (R) DH
Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS
Jurickson Profar (S) LF
Luis Campusano (R) C
Tyler Wade (L) 3B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
The pitching matchup: Miles Mikolas vs. Tyler Glasnow
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The big storyline: The Dodgers opened their season in South Korea last week and, assuming you woke up really early, you’ve already seen what their lineup looks like with Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman atop it. But since then Ohtani has been embroiled in major controversy while at the center of a betting scandal in which he claims his former interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, stole millions of dollars from his accounts and wired them to a bookmaker who is under federal investigation.
This is a story that is poised to hover over the Dodgers all year, as if they weren’t already getting enough attention. How an exceedingly private, global superstar like Ohtani handles it — while living up to the pressure of a $700 million contract and being without Mizuhara, who took care of many aspects of his life since Ohtani came to the United States more than six years ago — will be fascinating to watch. It starts now.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: The Cardinals rewarded Mikolas, a crucial innings-eater in an unstable rotation, with a three-year, $55.75 million extension last March, then watched him navigate a down year that mirrored that of the team around him. Mikolas’ ERA jumped from 3.29 in 2022 to 4.78 in 2023, and it wasn’t just bad BABIP luck. His expected slugging percentage rose to .499, within the bottom 6% of the league. Mikolas has always been a pitch-to-contact guy, but he allowed way too much hard contact last year. His 226 hits allowed led the majors. — Alden Gonzalez
Cardinals lineup
Brendan Donovan (L) LF
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Nolan Gorman (L) 2B
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Willson Contreras (R) C
Alec Burleson (L) DH
Jordan Walker (R) RF
Victor Scott II (L) CF
Masyn Winn (R) SS
Dodgers lineup
Mookie Betts (R) SS
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Teoscar Hernandez (R) LF
James Outman (L) CF
Jason Heyward (L) RF
Gavin Lux (L) 2B
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Jose Berrios vs. Zach Eflin
The big storyline: Two teams that are trying to shake off recent playoff disappointment and figure out how to get a little better in October — but in the AL East, you have to get there first. The Jays were swept in the wild-card series the past two seasons and including the wild-card series in 2020, are now 0-6 in the playoffs this decade. The bottom half of their lineup looks a little soft and closer Jordan Romano is beginning the season on the IL with elbow inflammation. The Rays were also swept in the wild-card series the past two seasons and lost in the ALDS in 2021, giving them a 1-7 record the past three postseasons since their run to the 2020 World Series. The Rays have an entire rotation on the IL, although Eflin is coming off a 16-win season. He’ll need another big season given the concerns with the rest of the rotation.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: Everyone — especially the Blue Jays — is wondering whether Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can hit again like he did in 2021, when he hit 48 home runs with a 1.002 OPS and finished second in the AL MVP voting. That was the year the Jays had to play more than half of their home games in Dunedin and Buffalo — and Guerrero absolutely raked in those two parks, hitting .364 with 21 home runs in 44 games. His road numbers the past three seasons have been pretty stable and he really struggled at Rogers Centre in 2023, hitting .238 with a .716 OPS. — Schoenfield
Blue Jays lineup:
George Springer (R) RF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 1B
Bo Bichette (R) SS
Justin Turner (R) DH
Daulton Varsho (L) LF
Alejandro Kirk (R) C
Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R) 3B
Cavan Biggio (L) 2B
Rays lineup
Yandy Diaz (R) 1B
Brandon Lowe (L) 2B
Randy Arozarena (R) LF
Harold Ramirez (R) DH
Isaac Paredes (R) 3B
Richie Palacios (L) RF
Jose Siri (R) CF
Jose Caballero (R) SS
Rene Pinto (R) C
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Josiah Gray vs. Frankie Montas
The big storyline: The last time this much excitement accompanied a Reds Opening Day was in 2013, with Cincinnati coming off an NL Central-best 97-win season. A new generation of Reds are here, and while infielder Matt McLain and outfielder TJ Friedl will start the season on the injured list and third baseman Noelvi Marte on the suspended list following a positive PED test, plenty of talent remains: Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and a deep, young rotation. The Reds spent more than $110 million on free agents, including Montas, and they’ll face a Nationals team that is simultaneously growing up with shortstop CJ Abrams and catcher Keibert Ruiz while biding their time until the arrivals of highly touted outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews as well as third baseman Brady House.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: Gray, starting his first Opening Day, went to Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, where he mostly played shortstop before transitioning to the starting rotation as a junior. Gray punched out 105 in 93.1 innings and was drafted in the second round in 2018 by … the Cincinnati Reds. They dealt him to the Dodgers in a trade that was ostensibly supposed to be a salary dump for Los Angeles, which two and a half years later moved him to Washington with Ruiz in the Max Scherzer–Trea Turner deal. — Passan
Nats lineup
CJ Abrams (L) SS
Lane Thomas (R) RF
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Joey Meneses (R) DH
Joey Gallo (L) 1B
Keibert Ruiz (S) C
Eddie Rosario (L) CF
Nick Senzel (R) 3B
Luis Garcia Jr. (L) 2B
Reds lineup
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Will Benson (L) CF
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 1B
Jeimer Candelario (S) 3B
Jake Fraley (L) RF
Elly De La Cruz (S) SS
Spencer Steer (R) LF
Nick Martini (L) DH
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
First pitch: 7:35 p.m. ET | ESPN
The pitching matchup: Justin Steele vs. Nathan Eovaldi
The big storyline: Both teams have large-font narratives generating heightened interest in their openers. For the Rangers, it’s a celebration as Texas will raise its first World Series banner before the game. Meanwhile, the Cubs usher in a new era in which the face of the team may well be its new manager, Craig Counsell, who became the highest-paid skipper in history after jumping from one of Chicago’s chief division rivals in the Brewers. Counsell got paid based on a deserved reputation as one of the game’s most well-rounded skippers. Yet when that banner rises, he’ll be admiring the exploits of his opponent, Bruce Bochy, who will be participating in his fourth title celebration as a skipper, or three more titles than the Cubs have won over the last 115 years.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: The magic number for wins in Texas is 102. That’s a high bar but these are the defending champs, after all. If the Rangers hit that total, Bochy’s career total would jump to 2,195 and he’d leap over Joe McCarthy, Bucky Harris, Dusty Baker and Sparky Anderson into sixth on the all-time wins list. And if the Rangers repeat as champs, he’d join McCarthy, Casey Stengel and Connie Mack as the only managers with at least five World Series wins. Yet, from the did-you-know category: Bochy enters the season eight games under .500 for his regular-season career. — Doolittle
Cubs lineup
Cubs lineup Ian Happ (S) LF
Seiya Suzuki (R) RF
Cody Bellinger (L) CF
Christopher Morel (R) DH
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Michael Busch (L) 1B
Nico Hoerner (R) 2B
Yan Gomes (R) C
Rangers lineup
Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Josh Jung (R) 3B
Adolis Garcia (R) RF
Wyatt Langford (R) DH
Jonah Heim (S) C
Ezequiel Duran (R) 1B
Evan Carter (L) LF
Leody Taveras (S) CF
First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Shane Bieber vs. Alex Wood
The big storyline: It’s the familiar existential question: If a big league baseball game is played in an empty stadium, does it make a sound? With the A’s on their way out of town, diehard Oakland fans have chosen Opening Day as a way of making a statement. Last year was the year of the Reverse Boycott, where fans showed up en masse on select occasions to show their visceral disregard for ownership. This year, after the team’s decision to abandon Oakland for Las Vegas, the fans have chosen a different approach, the UnReverse Boycott, or Reverse UnBoycott, where they hang out in the parking lot to show ownership they still care — without paying to prove it. The A’s have taken steps to mitigate the bad publicity by opening the parking lot just two hours before game time, but angry A’s fans have proven their resourcefulness.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: Stephen Vogt is the Guardians’ new manager. Stephen Vogt is also a cult hero in Oakland, where the chant “We Believe In Stephen Vogt” — accompanied by the drumbeat from the diehards in the right-field bleachers — became an earworm of the last of the Oakland glory days. — Keown
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Brayan Bello vs. Luis Castillo
The big storyline: Call this the battle of two playoff contenders who decided not to spend any money this offseason — leaving two very unhappy fan bases. Boston’s payroll is down about $21 million from last season while Seattle’s is down about $1 million. The Red Sox ran the highest payroll in the sport when they won the World Series in 2018 but may not crack the top 10 this season. The Mariners missed the postseason by one win but simply retooled the roster rather than making significant additions. Still, with Julio Rodriguez and what could be one of the sport’s best rotations, the Mariners could challenge for their first division title since 2001 — and maybe even their first World Series appearance.
One interesting fact to impress your friends: Rodriguez had 60 home runs and 62 stolen bases over his first two seasons. Only six other players in MLB history reached 60-60 through their age-22 seasons: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., Andruw Jones and Cesar Cedeno. Rodriguez will have his sights on a 40-40 season in 2024. — Schoenfield
Red Sox lineup: TBA
Mariners lineup
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
Jorge Polanco (S) 2B
Mitch Garver (R) DH
Cal Raleigh (S) C
Mitch Haniger (R) RF
Dominic Canzone (L) LF
Ty France (R) 1B
Josh Rojas (L) 3B
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The pitching matchup: Kyle Freeland vs. Zac Gallen
The big storyline: From a national perspective, pretty much all the interest in this game surrounds Arizona, a breakout team in 2023 that won’t be sneaking up on anyone this time around. The Diamondbacks are defending an NL pennant for the second time in their history and as a club built on a foundation of a surfeit of young, high-upside players, they should in theory be better. But can they be improved enough to keep pace in the high-powered NL West? Getting off to a strong start will be a challenge as Arizona is dealing with key injuries in its pitching staff. That list is led by key free agent signee Eduardo Rodriguez (lat strain) and closer Paul Sewald (oblique).
One interesting fact to impress your friends: Arizona star Corbin Carroll is a great all-around player and one of the games’ best young hitters. But where he breaks the scale is on the basepaths. On the surface, you see that he scored 116 runs in 2023 while racking up 10 triples and recording a 54-for-59 success rate on steals. Add it up and Carroll’s plus-12 runs above average in the baserunning component of bWAR was five runs better than any other player in baseball last season, ranked as the best-ever total for a player 22 or younger and was tied for the 12th-best single-season figure in history. You can’t take your eyes off him. — Doolittle
Rockies lineup: TBA
Diamondbacks lineup
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
Corbin Carroll (L) RF
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Gabriel Moreno (R) C
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
Blaze Alexander (R) DH
Alek Thomas (L) CF
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
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Sports
Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time
Published
4 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET
For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.
The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.
Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.
The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.
Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.
The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.
The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.
Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.
The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.
“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”
Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.
Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.
The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).
The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.
Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.
“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”
The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.
Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.
• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.
• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.
• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.
• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.
Sports
AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team
Published
4 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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