Keir Starmer must wait longer for his ‘99%’ moment – but Labour desperate to avoid election complacency
No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.
Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”.
What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?
Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.
No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.
Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.
Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency
At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.
It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.
The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.
Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.
And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.
Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.
Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.
Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters
The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.
In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.
That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.
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Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.
In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.
Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.
Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.
Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA
By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.
The Conservatives have higher hopes elsewhere following the de facto bankruptcy of Birmingham Council.
It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.
Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.
One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.
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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.
In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.
Labour’s will to win
On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.
The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.
Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.
Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.
There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.
Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA
Greater Manchester Police have reopened their inquiries into deputy leader Angela Rayner’s alleged non-payment of capital gains tax on her home.
Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.
Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.
In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.
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The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences
As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.
If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.
Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.
Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.
No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.
Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.
Oleksandr Usyk has become the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world after defeating Tyson Fury in boxing’s biggest fight of the century.
The Ukrainian won on a split decision following the match in Saudi Arabia.
Usyk had 115-112 and 114-113 on two cards, while Fury took the other 114-113.
Oleksandr Usyk lands a punch on Tyson Fury. Pic: PA
Fury disputed his loss after the match, saying: “I believe I won that fight. I believe he won a few rounds but I won more of them.
“Make no mistake I won that fight and I’ll be back.”
In response Usyk said he was “ready for a rematch”.
Pic: Action Images via Reuters
Fury came under early pressure, with Usyk taking the centre of the ring with an aggressive offensive from the start.
At one point Fury was pushed against the ropes and started laughing as Usyk applied pressure.
The “Gypsy King” looked relaxed as he moved around the ring in the early rounds and picked his shots.
Pic: PA
Fury lunges at Usyk. Pic: PA
But after Usyk landed a right hook in the ninth round it looked as if Fury was in serious trouble. The Ukrainian followed up by unloading freely but somehow the bookmakers’ favourite stayed on his feet and was saved by the bell.
Last night, Fury weighed in at 262lbs (18st 10lbs) – nearly three stone heavier than Usyk, who clocked in at a career heaviest of 223lbs (15st 13lbs).
Fury refused to look at his opponent during a news conference on Thursday, but did not back down at the weigh-in last night, where the pair almost came to blows before being separated by their entourages.
Usyk arrived into the ring first, dressed as a Cossack warrior.
Fury entered to songs by Barry White and Bonnie Tyler, with the “Gypsy King” spending several minutes dancing on stage before the song changed to Holding Out For A Hero.
Anthony Joshua watched from the ringside, knowing he could meet the winner early next year.
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UK
Brixham: Warning ‘heads are going to roll’ after water parasite outbreak – as ‘nearly every house in one close has someone ill’
Thousands of homes have had their boiling water restrictions lifted after a water tank infected with cryptosporidium was drained and cleaned, South West Water has said.
About 16,000 households in the Brixham area of Devon were told to boil their drinking water following 46 confirmed cases of the disease.
On Saturday afternoon South West Water lifted the boiling restrictions for 14,500 homes after water quality monitoring results found no traces of cryptosporidium in the Alston supply area.
Cryptosporidiosis is caused by a tiny parasite and can lead to vomiting, stomach cramps and watery diarrhoea lasting about two weeks.
More cases are expected to be confirmed due to a delay in developing symptoms – and about 100 more people around Brixham were reporting signs of it on Friday.
South West Water believes the parasite probably entered supplies through a damaged pipe in a field containing animal faeces.
A contaminated water tank at Hillhead reservoir, where cryptosporidium was detected, was drained overnight and “thoroughly cleaned” on Saturday, South West Water said.
One local resident said she knew of only four houses out of 21 in Raddicombe Close, on the outskirts of Brixham, which have not had at least one person fall ill with cryptosporidiosis.
The local MP has warned “heads are going to roll” over the incident.
Tory MP Anthony Mangnall, whose constituency includes Brixham, told LBC: “This is such a serious matter that yes, I think heads are going to roll over this.”
He claimed the supplier had been too slow to issue its safety alert.
16,000 businesses and residents are affected by the boil water notice. Pic: South West Water
Mr Mangnall said: “From starting this week with a denial from South West Water that it was anything to do with them, delaying the fact that the boil water notice came in – meaning thousands of people used the water network – to then issuing it on Wednesday, and there are a lot of people who are very ill.”
He called it an “absolutely disastrous week” and said locals were furious.
South West Water has said it’s “deeply sorry” and that it’s been “working tirelessly” to identify the source of the problem and fix it.
Bottled water stations have been set up in the area.
Read more:
What we know about parasite found in drinking water
Parasite outbreak has ‘destroyed’ business
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey accused the government of not doing enough to hold water companies to account.
He told Sky News the firms were “putting profit over the environment, over public health” after multiple cases of sewage being released into rivers and seas.
“We [Liberal Democrats] wouldn’t wait for fines for pollution,” Sir Ed said.
“There should be a sewage tax on the profits of these water companies so we can get the money now.
“There needs to be much tougher regulation… and we may need to look at restructuring the whole water industry.”
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Kelly Holmes joins anti-sewage protest
It comes as dozens of protests over sewage releases were planned for Saturday.
Surfers Against Sewage is promoting “paddle-out” demonstrations at 30 locations, with Olympian Dame Kelly Holmes among those at the event in Brighton.
The confirmed cases of a waterborne disease caused by a parasite have more than doubled.
There are now 46 confirmed cases of cryptosporidiosis, a diarrhoeal illness, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has said – with more than 100 further people reporting similar symptoms in the Brixham area.
Other reported cases of diarrhoea and vomiting in residents and visitors to the south Devon town are also under investigation. Hundreds of locals have also reported feeling unwell over the last two weeks on social media.
MPs and South West Water officials have confirmed the parasite most likely entered water supplies through animal faeces, but an investigation is still ongoing.
What is cryptosporidiosis disease?
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‘Cow faeces’ infected Devon water
The UKHSA first confirmed cases of the disease at around midday on Wednesday, while locals were initially told by South West Water that their tap water was uncontaminated and safe to drink.
But after testing supplies in the Hillhead reservoir, the water company found “small traces” of the parasite cryptosporidium – which causes cryptosporidiosis – and told residents in parts of Brixham and Alston to boil their drinking water on Wednesday.
A total of 16,000 households and businesses in Brixham, Boohay, Kingswear, Roseland and North West Paignton were impacted and offered £15 compensation at first.
Over the next two days, South West Water apologised to those affected and increased the offer to £115. Amid the chaos, one primary school closed its doors on Thursday due to not having safe running drinking water.
16,000 businesses and residents are affected by the boil water notice. Pic: South West Water
‘Very hard questions for water company’
Speaking to Sky News yesterday, South West Water’s chief customer officer Laura Flowerdew confirmed it was likely a broken air valve contaminated by animal faeces that had caused the outbreak.
However, she refused to give a timeframe on how long the incident would be ongoing – leaving thousands of residents facing an uncertain future.
Speaking on Friday at the University of Exeter, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said there will be “very, very hard questions” for South West Water over the outbreak.
“At the moment I think we probably need to give them the space to conduct their investigation; we know that they have identified the source,” she said.
“The public will want to know how on earth that source happened, what was the chain of events that led to this, because of course we all understand the expectation that we all have when we turn our taps on is that [we get] clean drinking water and we want to be able to trust it.”
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Most cases of cryptosporidiosis pass in two weeks. Symptoms include diarrhoea and vomiting. File pic: Dr_Microbe/iStock
‘Expect to see more cases’
Totnes MP Anthony Mangnall also warned the boil notice could last “at least a further six or seven days” and called for more transparency.
Professor Paul Hunter, a specialist in medical microbiology at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News if the parasite was “a continuous thing” present in water supplies for a prolonged period, then “you’d expect to see more cases” for another two weeks.
It comes as hotel owners in the area told Sky News the outbreak has led to people cancelling their stay, while a head chef said “I can’t wash salad in the sink”.
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‘Destroyed our business’
Stephen Colemansfield, owner of Redlands Guest House in Brixham, told Sky News the outbreak has “destroyed our business at the moment”.
“Our guests have cancelled because of the mixed messages that are being sent out by South West Water.”
Rob, head chef at the Steam Packet Inn in Kingswear near Dartmouth, also said his brother-in-law is one of the 46 confirmed cases of cryptosporidiosis and has been sick for two weeks.
The UKHSA is working with Torbay Council, South West Water, NHS Devon and the Environment Agency on the incident.
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