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Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course to win fewer than 100 seats in the general election, according to a major poll that suggests the party is facing the worst result in its history.

A survey of 15,000 people, used to build a seat-by-seat breakdown, indicated the Tories would win in just 98 constituencies in England and get wiped out in Scotland and Wales.

Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer could be swept into power with a landslide victory of 468 seats, the study for Survation forecast.

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Levelling up ‘unforgivable’ failure

The survey put Labour on 45%, with the Tories 19 points behind on 26%.

It gave the Scottish National Party 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019, the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

The prime minister himself is in danger of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, as his lead over Labour is just 2.4%.

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Several other cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could also be ousted.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

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‘Vote for Reform is vote for Labour’

But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is another who could be voted out as he has just a 1% advantage over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

The poll highlights the threat posed to the Conservatives by Reform UK, which is forecast to come second in seven seats by polling 8.5% of the overall vote.

A model of the likely outcome if Richard Tice’s party did not stand, suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

The poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results, was carried out between 8 and 22 March.

A government source told Sky News: “We’ve seen a lot of polls and predictions.

“The next few months will focus minds on the choice between our plan to grow the economy, create opportunity and build a brighter future and Labour’s lack of a plan that would take us back to square one.”

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Read more:
Sunak and Starmer’s Easter messages
Sunak’s surprise honours list criticised
Donaldson exit ‘no threat to power-sharing’

In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”

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IT issue affects flights at Edinburgh Airport

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IT issue affects flights at Edinburgh Airport

All flights were halted at Edinburgh Airport this morning due to an IT issue affecting its air traffic control provider.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, the airport later announced service had resumed.

Its post read: “Flights have now resumed following the IT issue with our air traffic provider.

“We thank passengers for their patience and understanding.”

But passengers continue to feel the effects.

A Delta Air Lines flight from New York to Edinburgh was diverted to Dublin after going into a holding pattern over the Scottish capital.

And a live arrivals board on the airport’s website showed multiple flights diverted, delayed and cancelled.

Arrivals board at Edinburgh Airport. Pic: Edinburgh Airport
Image:
Arrivals board at Edinburgh Airport. Pic: Edinburgh Airport

Morven McCall and Cody Stevenson, both 19, were due to fly easyJet from Edinburgh to Amsterdam on their first trip away together.

Morven told Sky News: “We literally just got into the airport and as soon as we walked through the door there was an announcement that it had been cancelled.

“I was ill over the summer and had to cancel two holidays already, this was our first time going away together. We are just gutted and stressed.”

Follow live: Latest updates as flights halted

Arrivals at Edinburgh Airport. File pic: PA
Image:
Arrivals at Edinburgh Airport. File pic: PA

One passenger was on a plane when they found out.

They said: “We boarded our flight and pushed back on time for an 8.45 (am) departure, then sat for a while before the pilot told us what was happening.

“He updated us a couple of times, cabin crew are brilliant at handing out water etc, and I’m surprised that everyone appears to be upbeat. But then you do wonder how long for, just been told we’re hoping to be in the air in 20 minutes.”

Another passenger told us: “The first news was from the airport announcement as we were halfway through boarding, saying the airfield was closed due to air traffic control down.

“No one knew what was going on. We’d already been delayed a bit before boarding, with no reason. I suspect problems started about 9am.”

It comes after an earlier announcement that all flights had been halted.

“No flights are currently operating from Edinburgh Airport,” the previous statement said.

“Teams are working on the issue and will resolve as soon as possible.”

There was no timeframe for recovery initially, Sky News learned.

It’s understood by PA that the issue was not linked to today’s Cloudflare outage.

Edinburgh Trams also posted on X, writing: “If you’re travelling with us to @EDI_Airport this morning, please be aware that flights are not currently operating.”

The airport urged passengers to contact their airline for the latest information on flights.

An average of 43,000 passengers per day use the airport, which is served by 37 airlines flying to 155 destinations.

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Teenager fatally hit by car on motorway had been tasered by police, watchdog says

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Teenager fatally hit by car on motorway had been tasered by police, watchdog says

The police watchdog says it is investigating after a teenager who was tasered by an officer on a motorway was fatally hit by a car.

Logan Smith, 18, was being taken to hospital in an ambulance at about 11pm on Sunday when the vehicle stopped on the hard shoulder of the M5 in Somerset.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) said the vehicle stopped on the northbound carriageway “due to the concerns of ambulance staff”.

Mr Smith got out of the ambulance near the junction for Weston-super-Mare and “entered the live lanes of the motorway”, the watchdog added.

Police were called and an officer arrived at the scene, with bodycam footage showing the officer discharging their Taser, causing the teenager to fall to the ground.

“Soon afterwards” Mr Smith was struck by a car travelling on the southbound carriageway, the IOPC said.

The watchdog said it was investigating the “actions and decisions taken by Avon and Somerset Police prior to the death of a teenager”.

IOPC Director Derrick Campbell said: “My thoughts and sympathies are with Logan’s family and friends and everyone affected by this shocking and tragic incident. 

“We want to reassure everyone that we will independently investigate all the circumstances surrounding this incident, including the use of a Taser.

“After being notified by the force, we sent our investigators to the police post incident procedure to begin gathering evidence.

“We have taken initial accounts from the officer and ambulance staff involved.

“We met with Logan’s family on Tuesday, to give our condolences, explain our role and to provide some further detail about our investigation, including a Taser being discharged during the incident.

“We will continue to keep them updated and they request that their privacy be respected at such a difficult time.”

The coroner has been informed and formal identification and a post-mortem have taken place.

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Former doctor charged over alleged sexual assaults on 38 patients

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Former doctor charged over alleged sexual assaults on 38 patients

A former doctor has been charged over alleged sexual assaults on 38 patients in his care.

Nathaniel Spencer, 38, has been charged with 15 counts of sexual assault, 17 counts of assault by penetration, nine counts of sexual assault of a child under 13, three counts of assault a child under 13 by penetration and one count of attempted assault by penetration.

It follows a police investigation into alleged sexual offences between 2017 and 2021.

Staffordshire Police said in a statement the charges come after a complex investigation by the Public Protection Unit into sexual offences at the Royal Stoke University Hospital, in Stoke-on-Trent, and Russells Hall Hospital, in Dudley.

North Staffordshire Justice Centre
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North Staffordshire Justice Centre

Ben Samples, deputy chief crown prosecutor for the West Midlands CPS Complex Casework Unit and Serious Violence, Organised Crime and Exploitation Unit, said: “We have decided to prosecute Nathaniel Spencer for a number of serious sexual offences allegedly carried out against patients while he was working as a doctor – including assault by penetration and sexual assault against a child.

“Our prosecutors have worked at length to support a detailed and complex investigation by Staffordshire Police, carefully reviewing the available evidence to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.”

Spencer, from Birmingham, will appear at North Staffordshire Justice Centre on 20 January 2026.

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