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Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course to win fewer than 100 seats in the general election, according to a major poll that suggests the party is facing the worst result in its history.

A survey of 15,000 people, used to build a seat-by-seat breakdown, indicated the Tories would win in just 98 constituencies in England and get wiped out in Scotland and Wales.

Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer could be swept into power with a landslide victory of 468 seats, the study for Survation forecast.

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Levelling up ‘unforgivable’ failure

The survey put Labour on 45%, with the Tories 19 points behind on 26%.

It gave the Scottish National Party 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019, the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

The prime minister himself is in danger of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, as his lead over Labour is just 2.4%.

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Several other cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could also be ousted.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

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‘Vote for Reform is vote for Labour’

But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is another who could be voted out as he has just a 1% advantage over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

The poll highlights the threat posed to the Conservatives by Reform UK, which is forecast to come second in seven seats by polling 8.5% of the overall vote.

A model of the likely outcome if Richard Tice’s party did not stand, suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

The poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results, was carried out between 8 and 22 March.

A government source told Sky News: “We’ve seen a lot of polls and predictions.

“The next few months will focus minds on the choice between our plan to grow the economy, create opportunity and build a brighter future and Labour’s lack of a plan that would take us back to square one.”

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In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”

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British man, 27, dies after avalanche at French Alps ski resort

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British man, 27, dies after avalanche at French Alps ski resort

A British man has died after an avalanche at a ski resort in the French Alps, local officials say.

The 27-year-old man died after being buried in snow at a ski resort and carried about 15m (49ft) by the avalanche’s force, according to local prosecutor Benoit Bachelet.

The incident occurred at Val Thorens ski resort in the Savoie region of southwest France, shortly after 10am on Thursday.

Mr Bachelet said nearby police officers were alerted to the incident by a witness, and the British man was pulled out of the snow.

He added officers gave first aid to the man, who had entered cardiac arrest.

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He was taken to hospital in Grenoble, in the Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes region, where he died that evening, Mr Bachelet said.

An investigation into the incident has been opened by the regional prosecutor’s office.

The prosecutor said the victim’s family were being supported by local services.

A Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office spokesperson said: “We are supporting the family of a British man who died in France and are in contact with the local authorities.”

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Joe Thompson: Former Rochdale footballer dies aged 36 after third cancer diagnosis

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Joe Thompson: Former Rochdale footballer dies aged 36 after third cancer diagnosis

Former Rochdale player Joe Thompson has died aged 36.

His former club said it was “devastated” to learn of his death.

Thompson, who retired in 2019, was diagnosed with cancer for a third time last year.

In its statement, Rochdale FC said he died “peacefully at home on Thursday, with his family by his side”.

He made over 200 appearances for Rochdale, who he joined from Manchester United‘s academy in 2005.

The club posted a tribute on X, describing the former midfielder as “a warm personality who had a deep connection with our club from a young age”.

In her tribute on Instagram, Thompson’s wife Chantelle said he had “made such an impact on so many people” and he was “the most incredible husband, son, brother, friend and father”.

During his career, he played for Tranmere Rovers, Bury and Carlisle United, with spells on loan at Wrexham and Southport.

He was first diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in 2013, while playing for Tranmere.

When Thompson rejoined Rochdale from Carlisle in 2016 the disease soon returned, but he confirmed he was cancer free in June 2017.

Two years later, he announced his retirement at the age of 29, saying his body had been pushed “to the limit” having twice undergone treatment for cancer.

Last year, he revealed he had been diagnosed with stage four lymphoma which had spread to his lungs.

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Hodgkin lymphoma is a relatively aggressive type of cancer that can spread quickly through the body, according to the NHS.

Rochdale, who face Altrincham on Friday, have confirmed that players will wear black armbands during the National League match.

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Essex Police: Senior officer sacked for sexual contact with woman while on duty

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Essex Police: Senior officer sacked for sexual contact with woman while on duty

A senior police officer has been sacked after he had sexual contact with a woman while on duty.

The police watchdog found Tom Simons, a chief superintendent with Essex Police, abused his position for a sexual purpose with two women – including by touching a colleague inappropriately and failing to disclose a relationship with one of them.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) said he continued with his behaviour despite being reminded of the importance of maintaining professional boundaries.

The case was first referred to the IOPC in March 2022 after multiple allegations, Essex Police said.

Mr Simons was suspended from duty and interviewed under criminal caution by the IOPC, which executed a search warrant of his house and checked his phone and other devices as part of an investigation.

The case was referred to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) in January 2024 to consider charges relating to alleged sexual offences, coercive control and misconduct in public office, but it was decided he would not be charged with any criminal offences, the IOPC said.

A disciplinary panel chaired by Bedfordshire Police’s assistant chief constable found Mr Simons had committed gross misconduct and breached the police professional standards of behaviour.

Mr Simons denies all the allegations.

He was dismissed without notice after the misconduct hearing concluded this week. He will also be placed on the College of Policing barred list.

IOPC director Emily Barry said she “would like to praise the courage of the women” who came forward.

“They faced pressure from him as a senior officer, but it’s thanks to them that our investigation was able to gather the strong evidence that was put before the panel at the misconduct hearing, resulting in his dismissal,” she added.

“He has deservedly lost his job and it’s behaviour like this that damages the public’s trust and confidence in police officers.”

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Ben-Julian Harrington, chief constable of Essex, said there was “simply no place in policing for people who think, wrongly, that they can get away with sexual misconduct”.

“I will be completely frank. This case is particularly disappointing given the seniority of the former officer,” he added.

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