Is the UK preparing for war amid threats of conflict? Here is what Sky News has found

Published

1 year ago

April 3, 2024

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The government has no national plan for the defence of the UK or the mobilisation of its people and industry in a war despite renewed threats of conflict, Sky News has learnt.

With ministers warning that Britain is moving to a “pre-war world” amid mounting concerns about Russia, China and Iran, it can be revealed that officials have started to develop a cross-government “national defence plan”.

But any shift back to a Cold War-style, ready-for-war-footing would require political leaders to make defence a genuinely national effort once again – rather than something that is just delivered by the armed forces, according to interviews with multiple defence sources, former senior officers and academics.

They said such a move would require a lot more investment in defence and much better communication with the public about the need for everyone to play their part in strengthening UK resilience and deterring aggression.

“We have to have a national defence plan,” a senior defence source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“It should involve what government arrangements would look like in the period before armed conflict and the transition to war.”

Analysis:
‘Hard to imagine how UK could be doing less to prepare for war’

In the first part of a Sky News series, it can also be revealed:

• A two-day “war game” is set to take place next week, involving officials from the Ministry of Defence, Cabinet Office, Home Office and other departments, to talk through how the country would respond to an armed attack

• A paper is circulating in Whitehall that examines what can be learnt from an old but comprehensive system of plans called the Government War Book – now sitting in the National Archives – that once detailed how the UK would transition from peace to war

• Sources say lessons could also be drawn from how the UK mobilised its industrial base ahead of the Second World War when it created a network of “shadow factories” that vastly expanded production capacity for aircraft such as Spitfires

Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, used a speech in January to raise the spectre of a “pre-war world”.

He also forecast that in five years’ time “we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea”.

Given the warning signs, Sky News has decided to explore how prepared the UK government, its military and the entire nation are for the possibility of armed conflict.

We have also looked back at the last time Britain was in a pre-war world, in the five years before the Second World War that erupted in 1939, as well as how this country subsequently dealt with the possibility of World War 3, including nuclear attack, during the Cold War years.

In the first instalment of a series – called Prepared For War? – we visited the National Archives to view a Government War Book; travelled to an old nuclear bunker once part of a secret plan to support the nation in the event of nuclear war; and examined the legacy of the Second World War shadow factories, which built the weapons that helped defeat the Nazis.

‘The problem is, there is no plan’

Setting out the challenge, Keith Dear, a former regular Royal Air Force intelligence officer who worked as an adviser to the prime minister between 2020 and 2021, when Boris Johnson was in power, said he had been unable to find any kind of detailed plan for war while in government.

He said specific planning is required to explain “what we think could happen, and specifically who needs to do what, when, to respond effectively”.

In an exclusive article for Sky News, he wrote: “Such plans are essential not only to avoid scrambling disorder and early defeats, but also so that our adversaries, awed by our preparedness, are deterred from fighting in the first place.

“The problem is, there is no plan.”

Instead, defence sources said the UK today relies on its arsenal of nuclear weapons and membership of the NATO military alliance to deter threats.

“The government assumes deterrence will always work, but no one stops to ask: what if it doesn’t?” the senior defence source claimed.

The apparent lack of a national defence plan means the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force – let alone the readiness of the civilian population and industrial base – are not designed to fight an enduring war of survival, the defence sources said.

“Our air defence [the ability to fend off incoming enemy missiles and drones] is dangerously thin and coastal defence is all-but non-existent,” the senior defence source said.

There is also a shortage of weapons and ammunition, while the size of all three services, both regular and reserve, is a fraction of the force that was kept at a high level of readiness during the Cold War in case of World War Three.

General Sir Richard Barrons, a former top commander, said he raised the idea inside government just over a decade ago about the need to rebuild national defence and resilience because of a growing threat from Moscow.

But “the implications of thinking about the revitalisation of a risk from Russia were unpalatable and expensive and denial – frankly – was cheaper”, he said.

War book

In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, NATO refreshed its war plans for defending the whole of the now 32-nation alliance.

But the UK used to have its own corresponding set of national plans – set out in the Government War Book – that would trigger certain internal measures if the alliance decided to transition from peace to war.

A 1976 copy of the war book – a large bundle of hand-typed pages, bound together by string – offered a sense of how seriously the UK once took national defence planning.

Stored at the National Archives in Kew, west London, the war book contained detailed lists and signposted the way to complementary plans about how to mobilise not just the military but also civilians and industry in a crisis as well as shutting schools, clearing hospitals, rationing food and even storing national treasures.

Conceived around the end of the First World War, the government’s collection of top secret, regularly rehearsed and updated war books ensured by the height of the Cold War the UK was one of the best prepared nations in the world – and most resilient.

That all changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union as Western governments no longer felt the existential threat of global war.

By the early 2000s, the entire UK war book system, which cost a lot to maintain, was quietly shelved as the then government’s focus switched to the threat from Islamist terrorism and fighting foreign wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

It means most senior officials in today’s Whitehall will barely have any professional memory of how the state functioned during the Cold War years, let alone the two world wars.

Jonathan Boff, a professor of military history at Birmingham University, said the UK should think about producing a modern-day version of the war books.

“Some of that kind of thinking – the thinking that takes you from: we don’t need to worry about any of that to: actually if we did want to worry about that, how might we do it? – I think that’s really important,” he said.

Risk register and resilience framework

Asked about the allegation that the UK has no national plan for the outbreak of war, a spokesperson for the Cabinet Office said the country has “robust plans in place for a range of potential emergencies and scenarios with plans and supporting arrangements developed, refined and tested over many years”.

This includes the Civil Contingencies Act, a government resilience framework, a National Risk Register and a strengthening of ties with a network of local resilience forums across the country that are tasked with responding to emergencies. There is also a new directorate in the Cabinet Office tasked with further enhancing resilience.

“As part of broad emergency response capabilities, all local resilience forums have plans in place to respond to a range of scenarios,” the spokesperson said.

“The government continues to review the risk landscape, including threats to the UK from overseas.”

Yet a flick through the National Risk Register offers a lot more information on floods, pandemics, terrorism and cyber attacks than what to do in the event of war.

A number of local resilience forums approached by Sky News also confirmed that they do not have specific war plans or planning for a nuclear strike – something that would have been a top priority for local governments during the Cold War.

Shadow factories

The funding priorities for many NATO allies, including the UK, changed following the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, with investment switching away from defence to areas such as health and social services – more popular in peacetime.

This has started to be reversed following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but defence sources said it must happen with much greater urgency – especially as Russia is on a war footing and has even threatened the use of nuclear weapons.

Back in 1935, when war with Adolf Hitler’s Germany was looming, the UK began rapidly growing its manufacturing base to build more aircraft, converting automotive plants to produce Spitfires, Hurricanes, Lancaster bombers and other kit.

A programme, called the “shadow scheme”, under the then Air Ministry, saw the construction of “shadow factories” next to existing automotive-turned-aircraft plants.

But the UK’s manufacturing landscape has consolidated in recent years, while many weapons are imported, making it harder to revive sovereign industrial capacity at speed.

Keith Dear, the former Downing Street adviser, pointed at the difficulties Britain has had increasing the production of artillery shells and other ammunition to support Ukraine.

“Our inability to supply anything like enough munitions or weapons to Ukraine, shows also how hollowed out we have become by buying and building armed forces to no coherent war-fighting plan,” he wrote. “Weapons without ammunition are useless.”

‘We aren’t ready – but don’t tell Putin’

Southampton is a reminder of the UK’s former wartime resilience.

The home of the Spitfire, production lines were dispersed around the city after German bombers attacked its two main aircraft factories early on in the Second World War.

Today, Alan Matlock, a local man, heads a group called the Spitfire Makers Charitable Trust that raises awareness about the historic bravery of Southampton’s residents.

“The frontline did run through these factories,” he said. “And there were a large number [of people] who paid the ultimate price.”

Vera Saxby, who turns 100 in August, decided to do secretarial work for a company that made parts for Spitfires during the war after a German bomb exploded in her garden.

“We really thought we were doing something good,” she said.

However, resting in an armchair in her house in a Southampton suburb, Mrs Saxby said she did not think Britain was very resilient anymore – pointing in particular to the reduction in heavy industry, such as steel works and car plants that were so vital during the last war.

Asked if it was worrying, Mrs Saxby said: “Well it is but I’m too old to worry anymore… I can’t see how we would defend ourselves – but don’t tell Putin that.”

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence said: “We have a range of plans in place to secure and defend the country, which are reviewed and adapted in response to international security developments… These plans will be integrated as part of our contribution to ongoing work to develop a cross-government National Defence Plan, which will further enhance our preparedness and strengthen our deterrence for the future.”

UK

BAFTA TV Awards 2025: Nine stand-out moments from TV’s starriest night

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45 mins ago

May 12, 2025

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BAFTA TV Awards 2025: Nine stand-out moments from TV's starriest night

The biggest night in British TV, this year’s BAFTA TV Awards saw the golden masks handed out to a wide spread of shows – with the BBC’s Mr Loverman the only show to take home two awards.

Hosted by Scottish actor and presenter Alan Cumming, the night kicked off with a Traitors skit, before handing out 29 awards, interspersed with a live performance or two.

While Baby Reindeer had gone into the night the most nominated, it took just one prize, as did the much talked about Mr Bates Vs The Post Office. Meanwhile Rivals and Slow Horses, which had also been hotly tipped, went home empty-handed.

Here are some of the top moments from the 2025 TV BAFTAs.

‘Hello cheeky chops!’

Jessica Gunning took the first prize of the evening, greeting her award with joyful: “Hello cheeky chops!”

Gunning, a first-time nominee, said Baby Reindeer had “changed my life”, reminiscing about her childhood playing make believe and inventing imaginary friends, never knowing she’d eventually end up using her dramatic skills to win a BAFTA.

The role of Martha has already won her an Emmy, a SAG award and a Golden Globe in the US.

Gunning also wished her co-star and creator of Baby Reindeer Richard Gadd a happy birthday (his 36th), calling him “nipple”, a nickname her character Martha gave to Donny (Gadd’s character) in the show.

‘Liars and bullies’

Mr Bates Vs The Post Office took the limited drama prize, with producer Patrick Spence telling the audience: “Our show didn’t change the law, the people of this nation did that,” before going on to say it showed the public “cannot abide liars and bullies.”

Flagging the journalists and the campaigners who covered the wrongful conviction of the sub postmasters convicted due to Horizon IT scandal, he called making the show, “the greatest privilege of our lives”.

Later, when accepting the special award earned by ITV for commissioning the show, the channel’s managing director Kevin Lygo said he’d “never seen anything quite like” the impact of Mr Bates Vs The Post Office.

Flagging the large number of people impacted by the scandal who were still waiting for compensation, Lygo didn’t mince his words, demanding: “Hurry up and pay these people what they’re due.”

Watch your mouth

Several winners were so excited they couldn’t refrain from a little blue language.

Accepting his first BAFTA for best male comedy performance, Danny Dyer dropped the f-bomb numerous times.

In his speech, Dyer thanked his co-star and the show’s creator Ryan Sampson, calling him “one of the greatest things to have come out of Rotherham”.

He praised Sampson for “never doing the same thing twice”, adding with tongue in cheek, “It’s not something I can say”. Dyer concluded his speech with a nod to his family, and a final trademark “f***”.

Meanwhile, a very excited Sophie Willen stepped up to accept the prize for scripted comedy.

The Taskmaster alumni told the crowd: “I’m not allowed to swear and all I want to do is go beep, beep”, before calling her win “bloomin’ fabulous”.

Willen – whose part autobiographical comedy Alma’s Not Normal tackles the care system, drug addiction, mental illness, and terminal cancer – called her cast and crew “shit hot”, before catching herself, then repeating “shit, shit”.

‘I love you James’

Taking the prize for female performance in a comedy, Ruth Jones channelled her inner Nessa, saying: “I’m not going to lie, this is immense.”

Thanking the cast and crew, she became emotional as she added: “The person I would like to thank most is my dear, dear talented friend James Corden.” The cameras of course then panned to a chuffed looking Corden, sitting in the audience.

She went on to say that without him, “Vanessa Shanessa Nessa Jenkins would not exist”, paying tribute to their 17 years writing together, adding, “long may it continue” – and so perhaps giving hope for a new Jones/Corden collaboration to follow Gavin And Stacey’s final act?

War amid the awards

In a sobering moment amid the glitz and the glamour, the director of best single documentary, Ukraine: Enemy In The Woods – filmed by Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline – paid tribute to two contributors to the film who had since been killed in conflict.

Jamie Roberts spoke about two young men he’d worked with on the film, before adding: “They are not here – they are now dead.”

The winner of the current affairs category, State Of Rage, also offered a heartfelt message as they accepted the award for the programme which follows a Palestinian and Israeli family in the West Bank.

German State Of Rage director Marcel Mettelsiefen said: “It would be wrong to stand here without acknowledging what’s happening in Gaza.”

Speaking as a parent, he said: “This violence needs to stop now,” then adding, “let’s break this silence together.”

‘I’ve interviewed musicians – and a few monsters’

Former Newsnight presenter Kirsty Wark received a standing ovation as she collected her BAFTA fellowship – the body’s highest accolade.

Accepting her award, Wark said: “Thank you so much to BAFTA. It is a privilege and an honour to have my name added to such an incredible roll call. My work continues to give me so much, not just wonderful friends and colleagues.”

The veteran broadcaster continued: “Things have changed so much, so radically, since the ’70s, not least the shoulder pads, the office drinks trolley, shooting on reversal for a fast edit, and film crews, the size of football teams, but always the chance to learn and grow and I’ve been lucky to interview everyone from politicians to painters, architects, economists, musicians and a few monsters.”

Wark added that the “most joyous change in television” has been “the number of women in senior roles”.

Would I Lie To You wins its first BAFTA

Everyone loves a conspiracy theory, and this year it could be courtesy of BAFTA and a big boat.

Accepting the entertainment award for perennial favourite Would I Lie To You, host Rob Brydon said: “This is a surprise.”

Team captain Lee Mack then added: “We’ve been nominated for eight years but now ‘Mr Cruises’ has done it for us,” referring to Brydon’s adverts for P&O cruises – the sponsor of tonight’s event.

“The whiff of scandal is in the air,” quipped Brydon.

In Memoriam

The In Memoriam section of the night was accompanied by live music by concert violinist and social media sensation Esther Abrami.

Always a poignant moment in the evening, it included a wide variety of stars who passed away this year including Shannon Doherty, Tony Slattery, Paul Danan, Henry Kelly, Linda Nolan, Michael Moseley, The Vivienne and Timothy West.

Poirot presents best actress

Awarding the best actress prize, Sir David Suchet channelled his most famous on-screen character, Hercule Poirot, greeting the audience with “Mesdames, Messieurs” to wild applause.

He went on, in the words of the bumbling Belgian detective: “I expect you’re wondering why I’ve gathered you here tonight?”

In a surprise win, Industry star Marisa Abela took the prize and had to be helped up on to the stage due to the length and tightness of her sparkling black gown.

Clearly surprised by her win, and becoming tearful, as she paid tribute to her drama school teacher who she said was in the audience that night, she also paid tribute to her mother, also an actress, without whom she said she’d never be on the stage accepting her first BAFTA aged just 28.

UK

Government to announce new English language and British citizenship requirements for migrants

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45 mins ago

May 12, 2025

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Government to announce new English language and British citizenship requirements for migrants

Migrants will have to live in the UK for a decade before they can apply for citizenship under plans to reduce reliance on foreign workers.

The change from five to 10 years will come with exceptions for people who make a “high contribution” to the economy or society, who will able to be fast-tracked for permanent settlement rights.

It comes on top of new English language requirements across every visa route, which will extend to adult dependents for the first time.

The measures will be announced by Sir Keir Starmer on Monday ahead of the Immigration White Paper, which will set out further reforms to bring net migration down.

At a press conference later, the prime minister will say: “This is a clean break from the past and will ensure settlement in this country is a privilege that must be earned, not a right.

“And when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration and to learning our language.

“Lower net migration, higher skills and backing British workers – that is what this White Paper will deliver.”

Net migration – the difference between the number of people immigrating and emigrating to a country – soared when the UK left the EU in January 2020.

It reached 903,000 in the year to June 2023 before falling to 728,000 in mid-2024. But that is still well above its pre-Brexit high of 329,000 in the year up to June 2015.

The government is under pressure to tackle legal migration, as well as illegal immigration, amid Reform UK’s surge in the polls.

However, experts have questioned whether some of the changes announced by Sir Keir today will have much of an impact, at least in the short term.

Currently, migrants have to live in the UK for five years to get indefinite leave to remain, or “settled status” if they are from the EU. They can then use this to apply for British citizenship, usually 12 months after settlement.

There were 162,000 grants of settlement in 2024, up 35% from 2023, and 270,000 grants of citizenship in 2024, up nearly a third on the previous year.

‘Contributions-based’ citizenship model

The new “contributions-based model” means people must spend a decade in the UK before applying to stay, unless they can show a “real and lasting contribution to the economy and society”.

The Home Office said this will include “high-skilled” and “high-contributing” individuals like nurses, doctors, engineers and AI leaders.

The details are still being fleshed out and will be put to consultation later this year rather than in the white paper, Sky News understands.

However, the thinking is that those who pay higher taxes or who work in a priority sector will be eligible to be fast-tracked. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also keen for discounts to apply to those who make an “outstanding contribution” to society, such as community leaders, it is understood.

English language requirements

The government also plans to raise English language requirements across every immigration route, so foreign workers speak a higher standard of English.

For the first time, this will also extend to all adult dependents by requiring them to demonstrate a basic understanding of English, which the government says will help people integrate and find employment.

Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, told Sky News that extending the amount of time people need to be in the UK to get permanent settlement rights is unlikely to significantly affect migration levels, as there is “no evidence” this affects their decision about whether to migrate.

Any impact would be seen in five to ten years, “when people get to that point of the visa journey”, she said, adding that the main effect of this policy would be to “bring in more visa-fee revenue to the Home Office” and “to make it harder for migrants to settle in”.

She said that language requirements “are more likely to have an impact on the number of visas granted”, as more than half of skilled worker visas over the past couple of years have gone to dependents.

“However, there’s no data on how many of them would have passed a language test so it is hard to say how big,” Dr Sumption added.

The home office has not put a figure on what sort of reduction these policies could achieve, with Ms Cooper to give more details in parliament on Monday afternoon.

On Sunday, she told Sky News’s Trevor Phillips that plans to close the care worker visa route and change the skilled visa threshold to require a graduate qualification would cut the number of overseas workers by about 50,000 this year.

However, she refused to put a target on the overall levels of net migration the government is aiming for, saying that approach “failed” under the Conservatives.

The Tories have admitted making mistakes in office, but are still calling for a binding immigration cap and want to repeal the Human Rights Act for immigration issues.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said Labour has “overseen the worst ever start to a year for illegal immigrants crossing the channel” adding: “The idea that Starmer is tough on immigration is a joke.”

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Nottingham Forest owner confronts manager on pitch

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45 mins ago

May 12, 2025

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Nottingham Forest owner confronts manager on pitch

Nottingham Forest’s owner was filmed confronting his club’s manager on the pitch following their 2-2 draw with Leicester City.

Evangelos Marinakis entered the pitch after the Premier League match and was seen castigating manager Nuno Espirito Santo in front of the team’s fans.

The draw saw Forest’s hopes of qualifying for next year’s Champions League dented.

Marinakis, however, was frustrated at his manager for not substituting 27-year-old forward Taiwo Awoniyi after he suffered an injury while colliding with a goalpost.

That decision meant injured Awoniyi played for the final ten minutes but wasn’t able to contribute to the game, according to the manager.

The confrontation drew widespread criticism of Marinakis, with former Manchester United star Gary Neville posting on X: “Scandalous from that Forest owner. Nuno should go and negotiate his exit tonight with him! The Forest fans, players and manager do not deserve that”

Football broadcaster Des Kelly called Marinakis a “big baby” for his “tantrum out on the pitch”. “What an embarrassment,” he wrote in a post on X.

After the match, Espirito Santo confirmed the confrontation was about Awoniyi’s injury.

“It was due to the situation,” he told Sky Sports. “We got information [Awoniyi] was okay to keep going,” he said in a statement.

“Unfortunately, we didn’t have another stoppage to change him and he was not able to continue to help the team. We’re all frustrated.”

Although Forest made history this season and will now play in Europe – likely either in the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Conference League – many fans hoped they would make it to the Champions League.

While still a possibility, the draw means Forest will have to rely on teams above them dropping points in the final two games of the season.

In a statement posted on social media, Marinakis admitted he was frustrated at the end of the match.

“Today is a day for celebration, because after 30 years, Nottingham Forest is now guaranteed to be competing on the European stage once again – a promise I made to our supporters when we achieved promotion!”

“Everybody – coaching staff, players, supporters and including myself – we were frustrated around the injury of Taiwo and the medical staff’s misjudgment on Taiwo’s ability to continue the game.

“This is natural, this is a demonstration of the passion we feel for our club.

“Let’s all be grateful, passionate and keep on dreaming!”