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Labour could be swept into power with a landslide of more than 400 seats at the next general election, according to the latest YouGov mega poll.

The survey of 18,000 people predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a parliamentary majority of 154 – almost double what the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.

The poll forecasts Labour will win 403 seats, a gain of 201, while the Tories will crash to just 155 seats – a loss of 210.

Follow live: The big Tory names forecast to lose their seats

If correct, the result would be a worse defeat for the Conservatives than under Sir John Major in 1997, when the rise of Sir Tony Blair‘s New Labour left them with just 165 MPs.

Key Conservatives projected to lose their seats include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt and former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

A loss for Ms Mordaunt would be particularly embarrassing as she has been already a two-time contender for the party leadership, and has been touted as a potential successor to Rishi Sunak.

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Other cabinet ministers set to lose their seats include Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan and Wales Secretary David TC Davies.

There is also bad news for the SNP, which is forecast to lose 29 seats, with most of them going to Labour.

That would mean Labour once again becoming the largest party in Scotland, having been virtually wiped out north of the border in 2015.

Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats, who are targeting Conservative heartlands in southern England, are forecast to gain 38 seats, giving them 49 in total.

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‘We’re ready – just call an election’

This includes in Mr Hunt’s new Godalming and Ash constituency (formerly South West Surrey), where he has a majority of 8,817 votes.

The poll was conducted by YouGov between 7 and 27 March, and it used a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.

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Tories in ‘dire position’ and ‘good MPs will lose seats’ at general election

It is generally considered one of the most accurate forms of polling due to the number of interviews conducted, which enables pollsters to examine voting intentions in very small geographical areas.

It is the latest in a series of disastrous polls for the Conservative Party ahead of a general election expected in the second half of this year.

Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith, who is projected to lose his seat to Labour, posted on X that the polling model is “clearly flawed and fails to factor in my infectious charm and charisma”.

Politicians are often sceptical about opinion polls, and many of YouGov’s predictions will no doubt by queried by MPs and party officials in the coming days.

Despite a double-digit lead in the polls for some time now, Sir Keir Starmer has imposed an iron discipline on his shadow cabinet about the danger of complacency.

While some pundits predict the next election will be a repeat of the party’s 1997 landslide victory, there are fears within Labour of a 1992 false dawnwhen Neil Kinnock lost what was believed to be an “unlosable” election.

The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.

If Labour were to win the next election, it would bring an end to 14 years of Conservative government under five prime ministers.

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CFTC chair’s final message includes a call for crypto guardrails

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CFTC chair’s final message includes a call for crypto guardrails

In what he said would be his last remarks as CFTC chair, Rostin Behnam said he intended to advocate for the commission to address regulatory challenges over digital assets.

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MPs vote against new national inquiry into grooming gangs

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MPs vote against new national inquiry into grooming gangs

A Tory bid to launch a new national inquiry into the grooming gangs scandal has been voted down by MPs amid criticism of “political game playing”.

MPs rejected the amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing Bill by 364 to 111, a majority of 253.

However, even if the Commons had supported the measure, it wouldn’t have actually forced the government to open the desired inquiry, due to parliamentary procedure.

Instead, it would have killed the government’s legislation, the aim of which is to reform things like the children’s care system and raise educational standards in schools.

Follow politics latest: Reaction to vote

Tonight’s vote was largely symbolic – aimed at putting pressure on Labour following days of headlines after comments by Elon Musk brought grooming gangs back into the spotlight.

The world’s richest man has hit out at Sir Keir Starmer and safeguarding minister Jess Phillips, after she rejected a new national inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham, saying this should be done at a local level instead.

The Tories also previously said an Oldham inquiry should be done locally and in 2015 commissioned a seven-year national inquiry into child sex abuse, led by Professor Alexis Jay, which looked at grooming gangs.

However, they didn’t implement any of its recommendations while in office – and Sir Keir has vowed to do so instead of launching a fresh investigation into the subject.

Jess Phillips exclusive:
Victims can have inquiry if they want one

The division list showed no Labour MPs voted in favour of the Conservative amendment.

Those who backed the proposal include all of Reform’s five MPs and 101 Tory MPs – though some senior figures, including former prime minister Rishi Sunak and former home secretaries James Cleverly and Suella Braverman, were recorded as not voting.

The Liberal Democrats abstained.

Speaking to Sophy Ridge on the Politics Hub before the vote, education minister Stephen Morgan condemned “political game playing”.

“What we’re seeing from the Conservatives is a wrecking amendment which would basically allow this bill not to go any further,” he said.

“That’s political game playing and not what I think victims want. Victims want to see meaningful change.”

As well as the Jay review, a number of local inquiries were also carried out, including in Telford and Rotherham.

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Grooming gangs: What happened?

Speaking earlier in the day at PMQs, Sir Keir Starmer accused Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch of “jumping on the bandwagon” after Mr Musk’s intervention and spreading “lies and misinformation”.

Referring to her time in government as children’s and equalities minister, the prime minister said: “I can’t recall her once raising this issue in the House, once calling for a national inquiry.”

He also said having spoken to victims of grooming gangs this morning, “they were clear they want action now, not the delay of a further inquiry”.

Ms Badenoch has argued that the public will start to “worry about a cover-up” if the prime minister resists calls for a national inquiry, and said no one has yet “joined up the dots” on grooming.

Girls as young as 11 were groomed and raped across a number of towns in England – including Oldham, Rochdale, Rotherham and Telford – over a decade ago in a national scandal that was exposed in 2013.

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We should hone ‘responsible AI’ before Copilot goes autopilot

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We should hone ‘responsible AI’ before Copilot goes autopilot

There is a critical need for a comprehensive, responsible AI approach to address privacy, security, bias and accountability challenges in the emerging agentic economy.

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