Labour forecast to win landslide of over 400 seats, as YouGov poll predicts Tory wipeout at election
Labour could be swept into power with a landslide of more than 400 seats at the next general election, according to the latest YouGov mega poll.
The survey of 18,000 people predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a parliamentary majority of 154 – almost double what the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.
The poll forecasts Labour will win 403 seats, a gain of 201, while the Tories will crash to just 155 seats – a loss of 210.
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If correct, the result would be a worse defeat for the Conservatives than under Sir John Major in 1997, when the rise of Sir Tony Blair‘s New Labour left them with just 165 MPs.
Key Conservatives projected to lose their seats include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt and former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
A loss for Ms Mordaunt would be particularly embarrassing as she has been already a two-time contender for the party leadership, and has been touted as a potential successor to Rishi Sunak.
Other cabinet ministers set to lose their seats include Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan and Wales Secretary David TC Davies.
There is also bad news for the SNP, which is forecast to lose 29 seats, with most of them going to Labour.
That would mean Labour once again becoming the largest party in Scotland, having been virtually wiped out north of the border in 2015.
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats, who are targeting Conservative heartlands in southern England, are forecast to gain 38 seats, giving them 49 in total.
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This includes in Mr Hunt’s new Godalming and Ash constituency (formerly South West Surrey), where he has a majority of 8,817 votes.
The poll was conducted by YouGov between 7 and 27 March, and it used a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.
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It is generally considered one of the most accurate forms of polling due to the number of interviews conducted, which enables pollsters to examine voting intentions in very small geographical areas.
It is the latest in a series of disastrous polls for the Conservative Party ahead of a general election expected in the second half of this year.
Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith, who is projected to lose his seat to Labour, posted on X that the polling model is “clearly flawed and fails to factor in my infectious charm and charisma”.
Politicians are often sceptical about opinion polls, and many of YouGov’s predictions will no doubt by queried by MPs and party officials in the coming days.
Despite a double-digit lead in the polls for some time now, Sir Keir Starmer has imposed an iron discipline on his shadow cabinet about the danger of complacency.
While some pundits predict the next election will be a repeat of the party’s 1997 landslide victory, there are fears within Labour of a 1992 false dawn – when Neil Kinnock lost what was believed to be an “unlosable” election.
The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.
If Labour were to win the next election, it would bring an end to 14 years of Conservative government under five prime ministers.
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Politics
Row over how many farms will be affected by inheritance tax policy – as PM doubles down ahead of farmers protest
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the “vast majority of farmers” will not be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) ahead of a protest outside parliament on Tuesday.
It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a 20% inheritance tax that will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt.
But the prime minister looked to quell fears as he resisted calls to change course.
Speaking from the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “If you take a typical case of a couple wanting to pass a family farm down to one of their children, which would be a very typical example, with all of the thresholds in place, that’s £3m before any inheritance tax is paid.”
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The comments come as thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.
And 1,800 more will take part in a “mass lobby” where members of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.
Speaking to broadcasters, Sir Keir insisted the government is supportive of farmers, pointing to a £5bn investment announced for them in the budget.
He said: “I’m confident that the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected at all by that aspect of the budget.
“They will be affected by the £5bn that we’re putting into farming. And I’m very happy to work with farmers on that.”
Sir Keir’s spokesman made a similar argument earlier on Monday, saying the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.
Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK’s 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.
However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.
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The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government’s figures “misleading” and accusing it of not understanding the sector.
The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.
Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of “regurgitating” figures that represent “past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief” because he said the Treasury does not have that data.
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Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.
Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.
APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).
APR and BPR can apply to farmland, which the Conservatives say has been overlooked by the Treasury in compiling its impact figures. File pic: iStock
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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted “by as much as 40%” due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.
Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.
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