It was Margaret Thatcher who famously declared: “The only poll that matters is the general election.”
And over the years, many more party leaders have wisely repeated her cautious advice when confronted with huge opinion poll leads.
The Labour lead according to the latest YouGov MRP mega poll isn’t just big, however. It’s massive: a 154-seat majority for Sir Keir Starmer.
Not that the Labourleader will be popping any champagne corks or dreaming of moving into 10 Downing Street just yet.
Despite months of solid double opinion poll leads of up to 20%, Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle and shadow cabinet members about the danger of complacency.
Image: Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle about the danger of complacency
But there will be quiet satisfaction among the Labour high command that this latest mega poll confirms that the feared drop in the party’s poll lead over the Toriesisn’t happening yet.
In fact, this YouGov MRP poll suggests that Labour is heading for a bigger majority than predicted in the last mega survey, back in mid-January, which forecast a 120-seat majority for Labour.
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Another change from the mid-January poll is that the number of people polled is up from around 14,000 to nearly 19,000, a truly enormous sample.
But if Labour is reassured by these findings, the Conservatives will be plunged into yet another bout of blood-letting, open civil war and attempts to oust Rishi Sunak.
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1:21
People are crying out for change of government, says Labour
Optimism for the Tories?
Okay, let’s look at the most optimistic scenario for Mr Sunak and the Tories: that there are many thousand “don’t knows”, that Reform UK has peaked, and the waverers will return to the Conservatives.
One big health warning on the YouGov MRP poll is that it asked voters how they would vote if the election was held tomorrow. Well, it’s not going to be held tomorrow and may not be for more than six months.
On his electioneering tour of northeast England this week, Mr Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people “feel that things are improving” and repeated that he is planning to go to the polls in the second half of this year.
“I’ve said repeatedly and clearly that my working assumption would be that we have a general election in the second half of the year,” he told BBC Radio Newcastle. “There has been no change to that.”
Image: Rishi Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people ‘feel that things are improving’
The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.
Many of the new poll’s predictions will no doubt be queried by MPs and party officials, who will study its every detail in the hours and days ahead.
For example, many in the Labour high command will argue the prediction of 201 gains and 403 seats for Sir Keir is on the high side, given the Tories currently have a working majority of 53 in the Commons.
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The SNPwill surely dispute the projection they’re on course to lose 29 seats in Scotland, down to just 19. And 38 gains for Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems, giving them 49 seats, seems a little optimistic.
Polls like this, however, will intensify the debate among MPs about whether the next election will be like 1992, when Neil Kinnock’s Labour were confident of victory but John Major won by 21 seats, or the 1997 Blair landslide.
Unlike now, when the government wins most Commons votes these days with majorities of around 70, by 1997, Major’s majority had all but disappeared. So, as Sir Keir regularly points out, this time “we have a mountain to climb”.
Mrs Thatcher was right to be sceptical about opinion polls. But Sir Keir can take comfort from the fact that this new poll suggests Labour is on the right path as the party attempts to climb the mountain.
Former Conservative chairman and friend of Boris Johnson – Sir Jake Berry – is defecting to Reform UK, causing more problems for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
On today’s episode, Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy discuss if his defection will divide parts of Reform policy.
Elsewhere, the Anglo-French summit gets under way, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hoping to announce a migration deal with French President Emmanuel Macron to deter small boat crossings.
Plus, chatter around Whitehall that No10 are considering a pre-summer reshuffle, but will it have any value?
The trial is part of Project Acacia, an initiative from the RBA exploring how digital money and tokenization could support financial markets in Australia.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.
The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.
High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.
The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.
Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.
The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.
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However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.
French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.
A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.
“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.
“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”
It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.
“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.
“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.
He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.
“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.
“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.
“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”