Labour could be swept into power with a landslide of more than 400 seats at the next general election, according to the latest YouGov mega poll.
The survey of 18,000 people predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a parliamentary majority of 154 – almost double what the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.
The poll forecasts Labour will win 403 seats, a gain of 201, while the Tories will crash to just 155 seats – a loss of 210.
If correct, the result would be a worse defeat for the Conservatives than under Sir John Major in 1997, when the rise of Sir Tony Blair‘s New Labour left them with just 165 MPs.
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A loss for Ms Mordaunt would be particularly embarrassing as she has been already a two-time contender for the party leadership, and has been touted as a potential successor to Rishi Sunak.
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Other cabinet ministers set to lose their seats include Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan and Wales Secretary David TC Davies.
There is also bad news for the SNP, which is forecast to lose 29 seats, with most of them going to Labour.
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That would mean Labour once again becoming the largest party in Scotland, having been virtually wiped out north of the border in 2015.
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats, who are targeting Conservative heartlands in southern England, are forecast to gain 38 seats, giving them 49 in total.
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1:02
‘We’re ready – just call an election’
This includes in Mr Hunt’s new Godalming and Ash constituency (formerly South West Surrey), where he has a majority of 8,817 votes.
The poll was conducted by YouGov between 7 and 27 March, and it used a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.
It is generally considered one of the most accurate forms of polling due to the number of interviews conducted, which enables pollsters to examine voting intentions in very small geographical areas.
It is the latest in a series of disastrous polls for the Conservative Party ahead of a general election expected in the second half of this year.
Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith, who is projected to lose his seat to Labour, posted on X that the polling model is “clearly flawed and fails to factor in my infectious charm and charisma”.
Politicians are often sceptical about opinion polls, and many of YouGov’s predictions will no doubt by queried by MPs and party officials in the coming days.
Despite a double-digit lead in the polls for some time now, Sir Keir Starmer has imposed an iron discipline on his shadow cabinet about the danger of complacency.
The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.
If Labour were to win the next election, it would bring an end to 14 years of Conservative government under five prime ministers.
Ms Cooper, who has the autoimmune disease Crohn’s, said she was rushed to hospital 12 years ago and was told without major surgery she had only four days to live.
She weighed just seven stone, her eyesight was failing, her heart rate had plummeted, her arms were black and blue and she was fed through a feeding tube, the MP said.
“But it wasn’t the prospect of major surgery that upset me – it was what they said next,” she told the conference.
“‘Even if you survive Daisy, even if you recover, you will probably never be able to work again. Your Crohn’s disease is so aggressive, at most you’ll be able to maybe do one day a week but nothing too stressful.
“‘You’ll likely need surgery every five years or so. Here’s an information pack about the benefits you might be entitled to.'”
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Ed Davey arrives at conference on jet ski
Ms Cooper, 42, said she lay in her bed and sobbed for “17 hours straight” as she felt her world had “fallen apart” and that she would never be able to campaign again.
She added: “Hopefully though, you can see that the story ends well!
“As is the case with so many millions of people, the NHS didn’t just save my life, the people who make the NHS what it is, gave me my life back.”
She said she often wonders what is happening to people who are suffering the same symptoms now and questioned if they can even get a GP appointment, or if they have to wait a long time for a scan or are stuck in a hospital corridor.
But Sir Keir Starmer earlier this week said the NHS would not get any more funding without reforming as he laid out a 10-year plan to fix the health service.
Ms Cooper also told the conference one of the first conversations she had with Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey after she became his deputy in 2020, was how the party was close to not existing.
“It was quite sobering,” she said.
“He said to me: ‘Daisy, we both know we’ve only got 11 MPs. But – when you add up our majorities – do you know how few votes stand between us and extinction? It’s 69,664. If we lose just half of those votes to the Tories, we will be wiped out’.”
That conversation has been in the back of her mind every day since, she said.
But she revealed she had not told “a single living soul” until now because they did not want anyone to know “we were in survival mode”, especially after boundary changes meant they notionally only had eight seats.
“Eight seats between us having a parliamentary party – or extinction,” she added.
“But here’s a new number for you: our MPs now represent seven million people! In parliament, I can’t even walk to the toilet without bumping into a Lib Dem MP!”
The prime minister has said it is “very important… that the rules are followed” after becoming embroiled in a row about a donor paying for his wife’s clothes.
The Conservatives are calling for an investigation into Sir Keir Starmer over a possible breach of parliamentary rules after he failed to declare his biggest personal donor, Lord Alli, paid for a personal shopper, clothes and alterations for Lady Victoria Starmer.
A Number 10 spokesperson told Sky News it was an oversight that had been corrected after it “sought advice from the authorities on coming to office”.
But it raised further questions over whether Sir Keir and his wife needed to have clothes donated to them when the prime minister’s annual salary is around £160,000.
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This year alone, Sir Keir has received – and disclosed – nearly £19,000 worth of work clothes and several pairs of glasses from Lord Alli, the former chairman of online fashion retailer Asos, The Times reported.
In addition, the peer, whose personal wealth is estimated at £200m, spent £20,000 on accommodation for the now prime minister during the election and a similar sum on “private office” costs, which was also disclosed, the paper said.
MPs are required to register gifts and donations within 28 days of receiving them, but it is understood the donations for Lady Victoria’s clothes were submitted late.
Asked about the row while on a trip to Rome, the prime minister said: “It’s very important to me that the rules are followed. I’ve always said that. I said that before the election. I reinforced it after the election.
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“And that’s why shortly after the election, my team reached out for advice on what declarations should be made so it’s in accordance with the rules.
“They then sought out for further advice more recently, as a result of which they’ve made the relevant declarations.”
Sir Keir added: “For me, it’s really important that the rules are followed.
“That’s why I was very pleased my team reached out proactively, not once, but twice, because it is very important that we have transparency, very important that you and others can see the rules are being followed.”
In a letter to the parliamentary standards commissioner, the Tories highlighted how Lord Alli had hit the headlines over the summer for being given a security pass to Number 10, despite having no government role.
“It has now emerged that at the same time Sir Keir Starmer failed to declare a substantial gift of designer clothes, tailoring and a personal shopper bought for his wife by Lord Alli, both prior to the general election… and following it,” they wrote.
Shadow science and technology secretary Andrew Griffith added: “It beggars belief that the prime minister thinks it’s acceptable that pensioners on £13,000 a year can afford to heat their home when he earns 12 times that but apparently can’t afford to clothe himself or his wife.
“While his top team want a taxpayer-funded clothes budget to look sharp, people across the country are forced to make tough choices in the face of Labour’s damaging decisions.
“Labour promised change but in ten short weeks all they’ve delivered is a change of clothes for themselves. Labour have made the political choice to put themselves and their Union paymasters before the most vulnerable.”