New attempts to oust Sunak could be ignited after mega poll – and Labour will take comfort in its findings
It was Margaret Thatcher who famously declared: “The only poll that matters is the general election.”
And over the years, many more party leaders have wisely repeated her cautious advice when confronted with huge opinion poll leads.
The Labour lead according to the latest YouGov MRP mega poll isn’t just big, however. It’s massive: a 154-seat majority for Sir Keir Starmer.
Not that the Labour leader will be popping any champagne corks or dreaming of moving into 10 Downing Street just yet.
Despite months of solid double opinion poll leads of up to 20%, Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle and shadow cabinet members about the danger of complacency.
Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle about the danger of complacency
But there will be quiet satisfaction among the Labour high command that this latest mega poll confirms that the feared drop in the party’s poll lead over the Tories isn’t happening yet.
In fact, this YouGov MRP poll suggests that Labour is heading for a bigger majority than predicted in the last mega survey, back in mid-January, which forecast a 120-seat majority for Labour.
Another change from the mid-January poll is that the number of people polled is up from around 14,000 to nearly 19,000, a truly enormous sample.
But if Labour is reassured by these findings, the Conservatives will be plunged into yet another bout of blood-letting, open civil war and attempts to oust Rishi Sunak.
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People are crying out for change of government, says Labour
Optimism for the Tories?
Okay, let’s look at the most optimistic scenario for Mr Sunak and the Tories: that there are many thousand “don’t knows”, that Reform UK has peaked, and the waverers will return to the Conservatives.
One big health warning on the YouGov MRP poll is that it asked voters how they would vote if the election was held tomorrow. Well, it’s not going to be held tomorrow and may not be for more than six months.
On his electioneering tour of northeast England this week, Mr Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people “feel that things are improving” and repeated that he is planning to go to the polls in the second half of this year.
“I’ve said repeatedly and clearly that my working assumption would be that we have a general election in the second half of the year,” he told BBC Radio Newcastle. “There has been no change to that.”
Rishi Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people ‘feel that things are improving’
The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.
Many of the new poll’s predictions will no doubt be queried by MPs and party officials, who will study its every detail in the hours and days ahead.
For example, many in the Labour high command will argue the prediction of 201 gains and 403 seats for Sir Keir is on the high side, given the Tories currently have a working majority of 53 in the Commons.
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The SNP will surely dispute the projection they’re on course to lose 29 seats in Scotland, down to just 19. And 38 gains for Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems, giving them 49 seats, seems a little optimistic.
Polls like this, however, will intensify the debate among MPs about whether the next election will be like 1992, when Neil Kinnock’s Labour were confident of victory but John Major won by 21 seats, or the 1997 Blair landslide.
Unlike now, when the government wins most Commons votes these days with majorities of around 70, by 1997, Major’s majority had all but disappeared. So, as Sir Keir regularly points out, this time “we have a mountain to climb”.
Mrs Thatcher was right to be sceptical about opinion polls. But Sir Keir can take comfort from the fact that this new poll suggests Labour is on the right path as the party attempts to climb the mountain.
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Politics
Row over how many farms will be affected by inheritance tax policy – as PM doubles down ahead of farmers protest
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the “vast majority of farmers” will not be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) ahead of a protest outside parliament on Tuesday.
It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a 20% inheritance tax that will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt.
But the prime minister looked to quell fears as he resisted calls to change course.
Speaking from the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “If you take a typical case of a couple wanting to pass a family farm down to one of their children, which would be a very typical example, with all of the thresholds in place, that’s £3m before any inheritance tax is paid.”
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The comments come as thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.
And 1,800 more will take part in a “mass lobby” where members of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.
Speaking to broadcasters, Sir Keir insisted the government is supportive of farmers, pointing to a £5bn investment announced for them in the budget.
He said: “I’m confident that the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected at all by that aspect of the budget.
“They will be affected by the £5bn that we’re putting into farming. And I’m very happy to work with farmers on that.”
Sir Keir’s spokesman made a similar argument earlier on Monday, saying the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.
Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK’s 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.
However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.
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The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government’s figures “misleading” and accusing it of not understanding the sector.
The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.
Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of “regurgitating” figures that represent “past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief” because he said the Treasury does not have that data.
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Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.
Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.
APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).
APR and BPR can apply to farmland, which the Conservatives say has been overlooked by the Treasury in compiling its impact figures. File pic: iStock
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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted “by as much as 40%” due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.
Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.
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