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It was Margaret Thatcher who famously declared: “The only poll that matters is the general election.”

And over the years, many more party leaders have wisely repeated her cautious advice when confronted with huge opinion poll leads.

The Labour lead according to the latest YouGov MRP mega poll isn’t just big, however. It’s massive: a 154-seat majority for Sir Keir Starmer.

Not that the Labour leader will be popping any champagne corks or dreaming of moving into 10 Downing Street just yet.

Despite months of solid double opinion poll leads of up to 20%, Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle and shadow cabinet members about the danger of complacency.

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Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle about the danger of complacency

But there will be quiet satisfaction among the Labour high command that this latest mega poll confirms that the feared drop in the party’s poll lead over the Tories isn’t happening yet.

In fact, this YouGov MRP poll suggests that Labour is heading for a bigger majority than predicted in the last mega survey, back in mid-January, which forecast a 120-seat majority for Labour.

More on Conservatives

Another change from the mid-January poll is that the number of people polled is up from around 14,000 to nearly 19,000, a truly enormous sample.

But if Labour is reassured by these findings, the Conservatives will be plunged into yet another bout of blood-letting, open civil war and attempts to oust Rishi Sunak.

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People are crying out for change of government, says Labour

Optimism for the Tories?

Okay, let’s look at the most optimistic scenario for Mr Sunak and the Tories: that there are many thousand “don’t knows”, that Reform UK has peaked, and the waverers will return to the Conservatives.

One big health warning on the YouGov MRP poll is that it asked voters how they would vote if the election was held tomorrow. Well, it’s not going to be held tomorrow and may not be for more than six months.

On his electioneering tour of northeast England this week, Mr Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people “feel that things are improving” and repeated that he is planning to go to the polls in the second half of this year.

“I’ve said repeatedly and clearly that my working assumption would be that we have a general election in the second half of the year,” he told BBC Radio Newcastle. “There has been no change to that.”

Rishi Sunak says the England football kit doesn't need to change
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Rishi Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people ‘feel that things are improving’

The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.

Many of the new poll’s predictions will no doubt be queried by MPs and party officials, who will study its every detail in the hours and days ahead.

For example, many in the Labour high command will argue the prediction of 201 gains and 403 seats for Sir Keir is on the high side, given the Tories currently have a working majority of 53 in the Commons.

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Govt ‘too scared’ to target long-term goals

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Labour’s ‘mountain to climb’

The SNP will surely dispute the projection they’re on course to lose 29 seats in Scotland, down to just 19. And 38 gains for Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems, giving them 49 seats, seems a little optimistic.

Polls like this, however, will intensify the debate among MPs about whether the next election will be like 1992, when Neil Kinnock’s Labour were confident of victory but John Major won by 21 seats, or the 1997 Blair landslide.

Unlike now, when the government wins most Commons votes these days with majorities of around 70, by 1997, Major’s majority had all but disappeared. So, as Sir Keir regularly points out, this time “we have a mountain to climb”.

Mrs Thatcher was right to be sceptical about opinion polls. But Sir Keir can take comfort from the fact that this new poll suggests Labour is on the right path as the party attempts to climb the mountain.

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SEC’s Crenshaw slams Ripple settlement, warns of ‘regulatory vacuum’

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SEC’s Crenshaw slams Ripple settlement, warns of ‘regulatory vacuum’

SEC’s Crenshaw slams Ripple settlement, warns of ‘regulatory vacuum’

A crypto-skeptical commissioner at the US Securities and Exchange Commission has blasted her agency over its settlement letter that could finally end the Ripple legal saga.

The SEC and Ripple filed a joint settlement letter in a New York court asking for the August 2024 injunction against Ripple to be dissolved and $75 million of the $125 million in civil penalties held in escrow to be returned to the crypto firm, according to a May 8 statement from the SEC.

SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw blasted the pending deal in a May 8 statement, saying it would damage the regulators’ ability to keep crypto firms in line and undermine the court’s ruling.

SEC’s Crenshaw slams Ripple settlement, warns of ‘regulatory vacuum’
Source: James Filan

“This settlement, alongside the programmatic disassembly of the SEC’s crypto enforcement program, does a tremendous disservice to the investing public and undermines the court’s role in interpreting our securities laws,” she said.

“In the meantime, the settlement joins a line of dismissals that collectively erode the credibility of our lawyers in court who are being asked to take legal positions today contrary to the ones taken just months ago.”

Under the Trump administration, the SEC has slowly been walking back its hardline stance toward crypto firms forged under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s reign, dismissing a growing number of enforcement actions against crypto firms.

At the same time, Crenshaw argues that if Judge Torres accepts the settlement, it would erase “the investor protections we already won” and leave a “regulatory vacuum,” until the crypto task force hammers out a regulatory framework.

“The settlement is not in the best interests of the investors and markets that our agency is tasked with serving and protecting. It creates more questions than answers.”

In August last year, a Judge ordered Ripple to pay $125 million in penalties after ruling the firm’s XRP (XRP) token was covered by securities laws when sold to institutional investors.

What’s next for the Ripple case? It’s not over yet

While the SEC and Ripple have agreed to a settlement, it’s still not a done deal, according to ex-federal prosecutor James Filan, because there are several steps before the long-running legal saga can conclude.

For a start, Judge Torres needs to provide an indicative ruling if she agrees to the settlement letter, Filan said in a May 8 analysis on X.

SEC’s Crenshaw slams Ripple settlement, warns of ‘regulatory vacuum’
Source: James Filan

If Torres provides an indicative ruling, the SEC and Ripple will ask the Second Circuit Court of Appeals for a limited remand back to Judge Torres, which, if granted, will result in another motion being filed for the agreed settlement, according to Filan.

Related: Bitnomial drops SEC lawsuit ahead of XRP futures launch in the US

“After the injunction is dissolved and the funds distributed, the SEC and Ripple will ask the Court of Appeals to dismiss the SEC’s appeal and Ripple’s cross-appeal. Then it will be over,” he said.

The SEC initially launched legal action against Ripple Labs in December 2020, accusing the firm of illegally selling its token as an unregistered security. 

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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Former FTX exec’s wife says gov’t ‘induced a guilty plea’

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<div>Former FTX exec's wife says gov't 'induced a guilty plea'</div>

<div>Former FTX exec's wife says gov't 'induced a guilty plea'</div>

Michelle Bond, the wife of former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, who faces federal campaign finance charges, is pushing for dismissal on the grounds that US prosecutors deceived her husband in a plea deal.

In a May 7 filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Bond’s lawyers reiterated some of the claims Salame made in opposing his plea deal with the government, which ultimately still led to him serving time in prison. She claimed that prosecutors obtained a deal with Salame through “stealth and deception” by allegedly agreeing they would not file charges against Bond. 

“Mr. Salame and Ms. Bond’s attorneys were advised that the agreement to cease investigating Ms. Bond could not be placed within the four corners of the Salame plea or other written agreement, but the government still offered it as an inducement to induce the plea,” said the filing, adding:

“At a minimum, enough exists to demonstrate a legitimate factual dispute as to the nature and scope of the promises made to Mr. Salame and Ms. Bond to induce his guilty plea such that a hearing with discovery is required.”

Law, Congress, New York, Court, Crimes, FTX
May 7 filing requesting a dismissal of one charge for Michelle Bond. Source: Courtlistener

Prosecutors charged Bond in August 2024 with conspiracy to cause unlawful campaign contributions, causing and accepting excessive campaign contributions, causing and receiving an unlawful corporate contribution, and causing and receiving a conduit contribution related to her failed run for a seat in the US House of Representatives in 2022. Salame, who pleaded guilty to two felony charges in 2023 and was later sentenced to more than seven years in prison, attempted to void his deal with prosecutors, claiming it had included an agreement not to charge Bond.

Related: Former FTX executive Ryan Salame’s prison sentence reduced by 1 year

The May 7 filing requested the court suppress any statements Bond made after the alleged “inducement” in Salame’s deal. The former FTX executive made similar claims in court filings attempting to nullify his plea, but later dropped the matter and reported to prison in October 2024.

Bond hinted that her running as a Republican — similar politically-motivated claims made by Salame — had contributed to the campaign finance charges. The indictment alleged she filed false reports to the Federal Election Commission related to funds used for her campaign.

The FTX saga hasn’t ended… yet

Since the collapse of FTX in 2022, nearly all former executives indicted on charges related to the misuse of the crypto exchange’s funds have had their day in court.

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who pleaded not guilty, went through a trial in 2023 and was later sentenced to 25 years in prison. His lawyers filed a notice of appeal, and reports suggested he may be looking for a pardon from US President Donald Trump.

Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research, was sentenced to two years in prison in September 2024 as part of a plea deal and began serving her time in November. Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, former FTX executives who also pleaded guilty to charges, were each sentenced to time served in 2024.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple and industry with no crypto legal precedent set

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Mashinsky’s 12-year sentence sets tone of enforcement in Trump era

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Mashinsky’s 12-year sentence sets tone of enforcement in Trump era

Mashinsky’s 12-year sentence sets tone of enforcement in Trump era

The US federal court for the Southern District of New York has sentenced former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky to 12 years in prison for fraud.

Mashinsky’s legal team sought a light sentence. They highlighted his spotless record before the Celsius incident, along with his military service and willingness to plead guilty. But US prosecutors were less inclined to leniency, suggesting on April 28 that the judge deliver a 20-year sentence for his actions.

Betting markets predicted a light sentence ahead of the May 8 hearing. Polymarket showed only 11% odds for a 20-year sentence or higher.

Mashinsky’s 12-year sentence sets tone of enforcement in Trump era
Source: Polymarket

President Donald Trump began his second term with high-profile pardons of crypto executives, signalling that his administration may bring leniency to crypto fraudsters like Mashinsky. His sentencing today, however, suggests otherwise.

Trump’s DOJ wants Mashinsky sentence to serve as a warning

Crypto-related crimes have their limits, according to the current US Department of Justice. Jay Clayton, the Trump-nomianted US attorney leading the prosecution, said on April 28 that the suggested 20-year sentence serves as a “critical warning to other entrepreneurs, executives, and promoters in the cryptocurrency industry and in any future industry as-yet unconceived: that fraud will be punished severely, regardless of the technology or industry in which it occurs.”

Mashinsky’s 12-year sentence sets tone of enforcement in Trump era
Bitcoin advocate Jameson Lopp quotes the prosecution’s argument that Mashinsky targeted retail investors. Source: Jameson Lopp

Clayton argued that a strong sentence was warranted as the fraud targeted unsophisticated retail investors rather than institutional parties with protections and expertise. Mashinsky “preyed on ordinary individuals who relied on his promises of safety and financial security.” 

The Mashinsky defense team drew attention to Mashinsky’s character, highlighting his long career in business, devotion to family and service with the Israel Defense Forces. 

His lawyers also drew distinctions between Mashinsky’s case and that of Bankman-Fried, claiming, “There are no allegations — let alone any proof — that Alex misappropriated, embezzled or stole any customer assets or any Celsius money.”

On May 5, Mashinsky’s legal team argued that these mitigating factors should warrant a sentence of no more than 366 days.

“The government’s venom-laced submission recasts this case as one involving a predator with an intent to target victims, harm them, and steal their money,” his team said.

Mashinsky’s lawyers called the suggested 20-year term a “death-in-prison sentence.”

Mashinsky’s sentence follows high-profile Trump pardons for crypto execs

Trump started his term with the pardon of Silk Road 2.0 founder Ross Ulbricht, whose acceptance of Bitcoin (BTC) on his narcotics trading platform endeared him to the crypto community. 

The president also commuted the sentences of Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo and Samuel Reed, three BitMEX crypto exchange executives who pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act and failing to establish a proper Anti-Money Laundering program.

Sam Mangel, a consultant to white-collar convicts who advised former Trump staffer Steve Bannon and Bankman-Fried, told Politico there has been a large spike in interest in presidential pardons.

“Everybody that is in prison now is keenly aware of the environment, and it’s become a very hot topic within the low- and minimum-security inmate communities,” said Mangel.

Related: US stablecoin bill loses democrats amid Trump corruption concerns

High-profile crypto defendants seem to have taken notice, too. Roger Ver, an early Bitcoin advocate and libertarian activist, is facing federal tax evasion charges. In January, he released a video making an outright plea to Trump for a commutation. Ver claimed that he is the victim of lawfare and likened his persecution to Trump’s legal problems following the Jan. 6 scandal. 

Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced former CEO of now-defunct exchange FTX, likened his court experience with Trump’s defamation lawsuit in an interview with The New York Sun on Feb. 18. He claimed his trial was politicized under the Biden administration and that he didn’t think there was “a very fair and balanced view or approach.” His parents also reportedly met with lawyers and people close to the Trump administration to explore the possibility of a presidential pardon. 

Trump’s commutation of the BitMEX executives has even led former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao to apply for clemency. On May 6, Zhao said that his lawyers had submitted an application and were awaiting a response.

The current administration is still writing the rules of the road as regulators reshuffle personnel and priorities and new legal frameworks for crypto take shape. The picture is further muddled by Trump’s own crypto projects, which have raised concerns over corruption and conflicts of interest. Mashinsky’s sentence shows that, for the financial world, certain crimes will not go unpunished. 

Magazine: Adam Back says Bitcoin price cycle ’10x bigger’ but will still decisively break above $100K

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