It was Margaret Thatcher who famously declared: “The only poll that matters is the general election.”
And over the years, many more party leaders have wisely repeated her cautious advice when confronted with huge opinion poll leads.
The Labour lead according to the latest YouGov MRP mega poll isn’t just big, however. It’s massive: a 154-seat majority for Sir Keir Starmer.
Not that the Labourleader will be popping any champagne corks or dreaming of moving into 10 Downing Street just yet.
Despite months of solid double opinion poll leads of up to 20%, Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle and shadow cabinet members about the danger of complacency.
Image: Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle about the danger of complacency
But there will be quiet satisfaction among the Labour high command that this latest mega poll confirms that the feared drop in the party’s poll lead over the Toriesisn’t happening yet.
In fact, this YouGov MRP poll suggests that Labour is heading for a bigger majority than predicted in the last mega survey, back in mid-January, which forecast a 120-seat majority for Labour.
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Another change from the mid-January poll is that the number of people polled is up from around 14,000 to nearly 19,000, a truly enormous sample.
But if Labour is reassured by these findings, the Conservatives will be plunged into yet another bout of blood-letting, open civil war and attempts to oust Rishi Sunak.
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People are crying out for change of government, says Labour
Optimism for the Tories?
Okay, let’s look at the most optimistic scenario for Mr Sunak and the Tories: that there are many thousand “don’t knows”, that Reform UK has peaked, and the waverers will return to the Conservatives.
One big health warning on the YouGov MRP poll is that it asked voters how they would vote if the election was held tomorrow. Well, it’s not going to be held tomorrow and may not be for more than six months.
On his electioneering tour of northeast England this week, Mr Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people “feel that things are improving” and repeated that he is planning to go to the polls in the second half of this year.
“I’ve said repeatedly and clearly that my working assumption would be that we have a general election in the second half of the year,” he told BBC Radio Newcastle. “There has been no change to that.”
Image: Rishi Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people ‘feel that things are improving’
The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.
Many of the new poll’s predictions will no doubt be queried by MPs and party officials, who will study its every detail in the hours and days ahead.
For example, many in the Labour high command will argue the prediction of 201 gains and 403 seats for Sir Keir is on the high side, given the Tories currently have a working majority of 53 in the Commons.
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The SNPwill surely dispute the projection they’re on course to lose 29 seats in Scotland, down to just 19. And 38 gains for Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems, giving them 49 seats, seems a little optimistic.
Polls like this, however, will intensify the debate among MPs about whether the next election will be like 1992, when Neil Kinnock’s Labour were confident of victory but John Major won by 21 seats, or the 1997 Blair landslide.
Unlike now, when the government wins most Commons votes these days with majorities of around 70, by 1997, Major’s majority had all but disappeared. So, as Sir Keir regularly points out, this time “we have a mountain to climb”.
Mrs Thatcher was right to be sceptical about opinion polls. But Sir Keir can take comfort from the fact that this new poll suggests Labour is on the right path as the party attempts to climb the mountain.
The UK is ready to spend “well over” £100m on a possible deployment of British forces to Ukraine if Donald Trump secures a peace deal with Russia, the defence secretary has said.
John Healey also said Vladimir Putin views Britain as his “number one enemy” because of the country’s support for Ukraine.
The defence secretary’s plan includes the preparation of military personnel to join a multinational force that would be sent to help secure Ukraine’s borders if the US president brokers a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.
He signalled British troops could be ready to deploy as soon as that happened and he said this could include soldiers on the ground.
Some of the anticipated money to prepare for any mission is already being spent.
The defence secretary also warned of a “new era of threat” and said the risk of wider conflict in Europe has not been as great since the end of the Second World War.
Mr Healey used a lecture at Mansion House in London to talk about efforts led by the UK and France to build a “coalition of the willing” of more than 30 nations to form what he called a “Multinational Force Ukraine” over the past six months.
Image: At Mansion House this evening. Pic: PA
This force would help to secure Ukraine’s skies and seas and train its troops if Russia agrees to halt its full-scale war.
“So, as President Trump leads the push for peace here in Europe, we are ready to lead the work to secure it in the long-term,” the defence secretary said.
“For our Armed Forces, I am already reviewing readiness levels and accelerating millions of pounds of funding to prepare for any possible deployment into Ukraine.”
Asked how much money, he said it would be “well over” £100m.
Image: British troops have been instrumental in the training of Ukrainian soliders throughout the conflict at camps like this one in East Anglia.Pic: PA
Mr Healey trumpeted the UK’s support for Ukraine, including a record £4.5bn in assistance this year, and taking over from the United States in co-chairing a wider group of nations that have been sending weapons and money to Kyiv.
“This is why President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy calls the UK his closest ally,” he said.
“This is why Putin ranks Britain as his number one enemy.”
But he warned that as Russia’s aggression grew in Ukraine and beyond its borders, “Britain and our NATO allies stand more unified, and stronger”.
Giving a stark verdict of the security landscape, Mr Healey said: “This is – undeniably – a new era of threat. The world is more unstable, more uncertain, more dangerous. Not since the end of the Second World War has Europe’s security been at such risk of state-on-state conflict.”
He said this required what he described as “a new era for defence”.
He said: “This is now an age for hard power, strong alliances and sure diplomacy.”
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The defence secretary said plans for the new era would include increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 – though critics have accused the UK and other European allies of playing smoke and mirrors with the target, questioning how much will really be spent on weapons and troops.
“As I look ahead to the rest of this decade, our task, in this new age of hard power is to secure peace in our continent and to forge stronger deterrence and resilience, a New Deal for European security,” said Mr Healey.
Turning to the Middle East, he also announced the UK was sending a two-star military officer to work as the deputy to the US commander, charged with monitoring the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
The government will allow thousands of rapists, child sex offenders and other violent criminals to be released early from prison, the Conservatives claimed as a row over sentencing law reforms erupted.
Ahead of MPs debating the Sentencing Bill, introduced to tackle the growing prison population, on Tuesday, the Tories accused Labour of favouring criminals over victims and said the government’s approach is a “betrayal of victims”.
But Labour accused the Conservative Party of “rank hypocrisy” over prison overcrowding and the previous government’s early release policies.
The bill will restrict the use of short sentences and instead strengthen community punishments.
It will also include an “earned progression scheme”, which allows convicts who demonstrate good behaviour to be freed earlier, with enhanced supervision in the community followed by an unsupervised period on licence.
There will be a minimum release point of 33% for standard determinate sentences and a 50% minimum for more serious standard determinate sentences – as well as more tagging to monitor offenders in the community.
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The Tories claim the bill as it is would mean 85% (6,500) of the most serious jailed offenders could qualify for early release because they are serving standard sentences, while more than 83% of child sex offenders and 62% of convicted rapists would serve reduced sentences.
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They have tabled an amendment to the bill to ensure a carve out for the most serious crimes, so those who commit assault by penetration, rape, grievous bodily harm, stalking and sexual offences against children cannot be released early.
Under Labour plans to abolish custodial sentences below 12 months, the Tories calculated up to 43,000 offenders could avoid jail altogether.
They said the bill could lead to permanent leniency in sentencing.
Conservative shadow justice minister Dr Kieran Mullan said: “Labour’s early release plan is a betrayal of victims and a gift to rapists and paedophiles. Keir Starmer is putting criminals before communities and letting predators out early.
“Under Labour’s plans, thousands of the most serious and sickening offences imaginable would no longer be treated as such. What an insult to thousands of victims across the country.
“Anyone who vote for these plans will have to explain exactly why these crimes do not count among the most serious offences.
“The Conservatives will fight this moral rot every step of the way.”
Image: Justice Secretary David Lammy at Belmarsh prison. Pic: PA
But sentencing minister Jake Richards accused the Tories of “rank hypocrisy” as he said the previous government took prisons to “breaking point”.
He said Labour are “cleaning up the mess” left by the Tories and accused them of “feigned outrage”.
“The Conservatives’ rank hypocrisy is shameful. They built this crisis, then feigned outrage when the consequences arrived,” he added.
“They took our prisons to breaking point, released thousands of serious offenders early and pushed Britain to the brink of a situation where police could no longer make arrests and courts could no longer prosecute.
“That would have been a total collapse of law and order.
“Now they attack us for cleaning up the mess they made. They are behaving like arsonists complaining the fire service couldn’t stop the flame.
“This Labour government believes in prison and in punishment that cuts crime.
“We’re delivering the biggest prison expansion since the Victorians, reforming sentencing to keep the public safe and building a justice system worthy of the name.”
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