Fear the Dodgers and Braves? Five teams that could take down MLB’s two superteams this season
Entering the 2024 MLB season, two superteams have stood out from the crowd. In fact, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers were in a tier of their own at the top of our initial MLB Power Rankings and are the clear projected favorites to win it all when the postseason rolls around. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the league is going to lie down and watch the Dodgers and Braves battle it out for supremacy this season.
We asked five of our ESPN MLB experts to each pick one team they think is best suited to take down the Dodgers and Braves in October, when it counts the most. While none of our experts necessarily expects this team to be better than L.A. and Atlanta for the 162-game long haul, they all made their strongest cases why their selection could be the team to knock L.A. and Atlanta out of the postseason. Just how strong were their cases? We left that for our resident judge — the honorable Jeff Passan — to decide with his ruling for each case.
The case for the Rangers: I already hear Judge Jeff: “No team has gone back-to-back since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. It’s impossible.” That just means we’re due for a repeat champion — and this lineup can carry the Rangers to another title. You know this is true, Judge. After all, you wrote the story in spring training heralding the coming of Wyatt Langford. The Rangers are adding him plus a full season of Evan Carter to a lineup that already led the American League in runs scored a year ago. Yes, Josh Jung‘s broken wrist stinks, but that means the Rangers will have only eight good hitters instead of nine while he’s out.
I’m less worried about Texas’ pitching than most. Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Dane Dunning are good enough to keep the rotation afloat until Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle return later in the season. You want to bet against Eovaldi, who merely went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA last postseason, plus a healthy deGrom and Scherzer in October? The bullpen is also deeper with the additions of David Robertson and Kirby Yates, which is nice but doesn’t even matter because Bruce Bochy could manage a bullpen with three High-A pitchers, two college relievers, Jesse Orosco and Judge Jeff himself to a World Series title. — David Schoenfield
Judge Jeff says: I’ve been working on a splitter, but that’s neither here nor there. Your case is sound. It also depends on the health of guys who haven’t been able to stay healthy. What version of deGrom returns in August? How much more is left in the tank for Scherzer, who turns 40 in July? The lineup, even without Jung, will be just fine, and general manager Chris Young’s aggressiveness almost ensures the Rangers will get better at the trade deadline. For now, the lack of pitching certainty leaves them a touch light compared to the Braves and Dodgers.
The case for the Orioles: The Orioles won 101 games last season and still haven’t come close to reaching their ceiling. Baltimore has so much young talent that its Triple-A team is more interesting right now than at least four big league clubs. The ascension of these players is collectively steep, inevitable and organic. A lineup that within a few weeks will feature Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg has balance, speed, power and athleticism to match up with anyone, and there is more on the way as the outfield gets younger.
Yes, the talent is tilted toward the position player side — but that means Baltimore can make targeted additions to the pitching staff over the course of the season. The depth in young hitters will allow the O’s to fill in gaps in the rotation and bullpen alike with top-of-the-market reinforcements. And it’s not like those acquisitions would be counted on to turn around a faltering staff. Baltimore, as is, has a playoff-caliber pitching staff. Everything that’s put into the roster from here is gravy. — Bradford Doolittle
Judge Jeff says: “Will allow” is not the same as “will,” and that’s the flaw in the pro-Orioles argument. Everything you say about Baltimore’s lineup is correct. It’s the Orioles’ willingness to move controllable players that I doubt, even with David Rubenstein’s recent purchase of the team. Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal run the Orioles’ baseball operations department with a high degree of judiciousness, and because their window to win is as big as any American League team’s, adding the necessary pitching might come down to value over urgency. And it is indeed necessary. With Kyle Bradish’s return from an elbow injury uncertain and John Means getting hammered in his first rehab start at Triple-A, the questions about Baltimore’s pitching linger.
The case for the Phillies: There were times watching the Phillies last October when it felt as if they’d never lose. The electricity at Citizens Bank Park was unmatched, the confidence with which this team carried itself palpable. The Phillies seemed destined for the World Series. And if not for Craig Kimbrel — tagged with the loss in Games 3 and 4 of the National League Championship Series, helping the Arizona Diamondbacks get back into a series they ultimately won — they probably would have reached it. Kimbrel is now gone. What remains is a loaded lineup headlined by Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto; a devastating rotation duo in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola; and a bullpen that, early hiccups aside, began the season with the highest WAR projections by FanGraphs.
Even if the Phillies don’t win the NL East, they’ve more than proved they can take down the Braves when it matters most, having eliminated them from each of the past two postseasons. As for the Dodgers? These Phillies seem to possess what the Dodgers have lacked in recent years: an October swagger that radiates through your television screen. — Alden Gonzalez
Judge Jeff says: When it comes to star-level talent, the Phillies have as much as any team, Dodgers and Braves included. Their ability to take the leap might depend on the secondary characters, though. Is Cristopher Sanchez — with his 2 mph velo leap and filthy changeup — a viable rotation piece for a full season? Can a healthy Spencer Turnbull be the guy whose first start includes five scoreless innings? Does the best version of Nick Castellanos show up? If the answer to all three is yes, I’m a lot more bullish on the Phillies’ prospects, particularly considering the team’s October pedigree.
The case for the Yankees: Brian Cashman’s multiyear obsession with attempting to balance his lineup finally came to fruition when the Yankees acquired Juan Soto in the offseason. It was essential to their October goals. The postseason is littered with good teams who bowed out early because they were too right handed. See the White Sox in 2021 and the Blue Jays, basically every year, for evidence. New York was in that category, relying on Anthony Rizzo and a cast of characters (Matt Carpenter, Joey Gallo et al), to provide slug from that side of the plate. It never worked. Now we’re already seeing what having a premier left-handed hitter can do to stretch the lineup while taking some pressure off Rizzo. This group, when healthy, plays in the fall.
But let’s not bury the lead here. Pitching is still the name of the game, and Gerrit Cole needs to get healthy while Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes must be the best versions of themselves. I don’t believe that’s asking too much. And there was chatter last July that the Yankees would have moved a top prospect for Cody Bellinger, so don’t discount a big trade for a pitcher this time around. I’m sure they don’t want to give up a recovering Jasson Dominguez or the highly touted Spencer Jones, but there was a time when championships were all that mattered in New York. With potentially having Soto for only one year, Cashman needs to go for it. The Yankees can topple the giants if he does. — Jesse Rogers
Judge Jeff says: Sweeping the Houston Astros over four games to begin the season — all in come-from-behind fashion no less — validated the these-Yankees-are-different buzz that accompanied them entering the season. The validity of their case boils down to one thing, however: Do they or don’t they have Gerrit Cole come October? If he is healthy and himself, the threat for championship No. 28, and their first since 2009, is very real. Without Cole, the Yankees’ rotation is fine, just not the sort that screams World Series winner.
Houston Astros
The case for the Astros: For the Astros to take down the Dodgers or Braves themselves, they would have to reach the World Series. And if recent history is any indication, they will at least give themselves a shot to do so. The Astros have advanced to the ALCS a record seven straight seasons. They went to the World Series four out of those seven years and were one win away from a fifth appearance last fall. They’ve won it all twice. October baseball is different, and there hasn’t been a better team in October than Houston over the past decade.
Two managers, a few stars and some valued complementary veterans have come and gone, but an elite core remains intact in 2024. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman highlight a deep lineup that also features Jose Abreu, Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick as part of the supporting cast. The back end of the bullpen, bolstered by Josh Hader‘s arrival, is the best in the majors on paper.
The starting rotation has question marks to start the season — enough for Houston to have strongly considered signing Blake Snell in mid-March — but the talent is there. Justin Verlander is expected to come off the injured list by the end of the month. Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia should follow. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier were elite in 2022. Ronel Blanco, a rotation fill-in, tossed a no-hitter Monday. If need be, the Astros could address the rotation at the trade deadline. An 0-4 start was less than ideal, but the Astros are consistent winners when it matters most. The Dodgers and Braves, who have both been knocked out in the NL division series the past two years, can’t say the same. — Jorge Castillo
Judge Jeff says: What, no one wants the Pirates? Tigers? Brewers? And you’re going to go with a team that has played six games, led all of them at one point and won just one? This is also a team with similar-to-Texas concerns about starting pitching health, a payroll already at an all-time high without much deadline wiggle room and a weak farm system. Then again, these are the Astros. In addition to Alvarez, Tucker and Altuve, Diaz is mashing. A low-strikeout offense with few holes, a still-strong defensive unit and a nasty back end of the bullpen, Hader’s early hiccups notwithstanding? There’s a reason the Astros are one good run shy of an all-time LCS streak, and as the Yankees and Phillies learned in 2022, only a fool sleeps on Houston in October.
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David Purdum
Members of Congress sent a letter to Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred on Friday, expressing concern over a “new integrity crisis” facing American sports and asking for answers about the alleged betting scheme that led to the recent indictments of two Cleveland Guardians pitchers.
Members of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, which oversees professional sports, called the allegations against Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz “markedly more serious” than other recent betting incidents in baseball. Federal prosecutors on Sunday indicted Clase and Ortiz and accused them of rigging individual pitches over multiple games so gambling associates could profit on wagers.
Sens. Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell, who lead the committee, questioned why Clase’s alleged actions, which began in May 2023, were not discovered for two years. They contrasted the case with that of former major leaguer Tucupita Marcano, who was banned in 2024 for betting on baseball.
“How did MLB catch Marcano and ban him for life but failed to notice Clase allegedly rigging pitches for two years?” the letter states. “The integrity of the game is paramount. MLB has every interest in ensuring baseball is free from influence and manipulation. … But in light of these recent developments, MLB must clearly demonstrate how it is meeting its responsibility to safeguard America’s pastime.”
The committee members asked when and how MLB was made aware of the alleged activity by Clase and Ortiz and for documentation detailing the league’s betting policies and details of any other betting-related investigations since Jan. 1, 2020. The committee requested the information and documentation by Dec. 5.
ESPN has reached out to MLB for comment. On Monday, MLB announced that its sportsbook partners had agreed to place a $200 limit on all bets involving individual pitches and prohibit such wagers from being included in parlays. The measures were taken to reduce the amount that could be won from pitch-level bets and therefore decrease the incentive of manipulation.
The same committee sent a letter to the NBA in October, asking for information related to that league’s handling of the alleged betting scandal that led to the indictments of Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, former player and coach Damon Jones and Miami Heat veteran guard Terry Rozier.
“An isolated incident of game rigging might be dismissed as an aberration, but the emergence of manipulation across multiple leagues suggests a deeper, systemic vulnerability,” the committee wrote. “These developments warrant thorough scrutiny by Congress before misconduct issues become more widespread.”
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Michael Rothstein
Testimony in the wrongful death lawsuit against the Los Angeles Angels underscores the difficulties team attorneys face convincing the jury they were unaware of addiction concerns before employee Eric Kay provided a fentanyl-laced pill that killed pitcher Tyler Skaggs in 2019.
The court case, now entering its sixth week, continues to focus on the team’s handling of Kay’s drug addiction treatment and whether officials did enough to protect Skaggs as Kay’s behavior became increasingly strange, causing Kay’s wife and some Angels employees to raise questions of drug abuse.
Kay was present in Skaggs’ hotel room the night he overdosed on alcohol and opioids, less than a month after Kay returned to work from a drug addiction treatment program. In Kay’s 2022 criminal trial, witnesses testified that Kay distributed pills to other players.
The team doctor testified last week that he prescribed more than 600 opioid pills to Kay over several years before learning how addictive the pills could be.
Contradictory testimony by current and former Angels representatives has sharpened scrutiny about what the Angels knew — and whether officials relayed concerns about Kay to Major League Baseball. Among the trial’s key elements in the past two weeks:
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Deborah Johnston, the Angels vice president of human resources, testified Monday that the team worked with MLB to address Kay’s addiction, despite her own deposition and previous testimony by other Angels officials saying they had no knowledge of any such coordination.
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MLB sent a statement to ESPN denying any knowledge of or involvement in Kay’s treatment. In front of the judge after jurors left the courtroom on Wednesday, the Skaggs family attorneys accused Johnston of committing perjury, a serious allegation. Angels attorneys immediately denied the perjury accusation.
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Angels officials testified they believed Kay’s problems came from prescribed medication to address mental health issues, while clubhouse employees testified they either witnessed or believed Kay had a problem with drugs.
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Angels officials testified they believed Kay suffered from bipolar disorder even though Kay’s medical records when he entered rehabilitation in April 2019 showed no record of medication to treat bipolar disorder. Kay’s ex-wife, Camela, testified she was not aware of a bipolar diagnosis.
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The team doctor, Craig Milhouse, testified that he prescribed Kay 600 pills of the opioids Norco and Vicodin over a 44-month period between 2009 and 2013.
The crux of the case is whether the Angels knew Kay was abusing drugs and providing them to players, including Skaggs while working in his official capacity. Kay is serving 22 years in federal prison for providing the drug that killed Skaggs in a Texas hotel room on July 1, 2019. The team contends he and Skaggs were acting privately in their off time when the overdose occurred.
The plaintiffs claim the Angels put Skaggs in harm’s way by continuing to employ Kay when his behavior showed warning signs of drug abuse. Angels officials say they are not responsible for Skaggs’ death, were not aware of his drug use and that it was Skaggs’ reckless decision to mix alcohol with illicit drugs that killed him. Officials also testified they were not aware Kay was providing drugs to players when Skaggs died.
The Skaggs family is seeking $118 million in estimated lost wages, in addition to potential punitive damages.
Johnston testified last week that the franchise had worked with MLB to get Kay help for his drug addiction. It’s the first time an Angels official suggested MLB was informed of Kay’s problem — a major bone of contention on the question of team responsibility.
Johnston said that when the Angels investigate potential use of illegal substances on team property, one option is immediate termination, depending on the findings. “Another option is to work with MLB, as we did in this case, and with our physician, Dr. [Erik] Abell,” she stated. Abell was the team’s liaison with MLB for such issues.
Johnston also testified that Kay was drug-tested under MLB’s policies, not those of the Angels.
In a text-messaged statement to ESPN about the perjury accusation, Angels’ attorney Todd Theodora wrote: “The accusation that Ms. Johnston committed perjury is completely false and defamatory. Her testimony was truthful based on several text messages she was recently shown demonstrating that Dr. Abell was treating Eric Kay.”
He added that Johnston “did not make any statements about whether Dr. Abell reported this further to MLB.”
An MLB spokesperson denied the league knew of Kay’s drug use or was involved with Kay’s treatment.
In separate weekend comments to ESPN, Theodora and lead plaintiffs attorney Rusty Hardin argued about the perjury issue, with Theodora characterizing the absence of a ruling by the judge on the accusation as a win for his side, while Hardin insisted that no ruling means the issue remains alive — including plaintiffs’ efforts to get MLB testimony.
California-based civil attorney Geoffrey Hickey told ESPN that perjury can only be proven if Johnston “willingly and knowingly” made a false statement under oath. Hickey said Hardin has a “good-faith argument,” but he doesn’t think Johnston’s statements rise to the level of perjury.
Johnston testified in a September pretrial deposition that no one had reported Kay’s drug use to MLB. She explained Monday she “learned additional information” about the Angels’ communications with MLB after giving her deposition. She said she couldn’t remember the exact document where she learned the information.
Kay’s immediate superior, Tim Mead, and the Angels’ traveling secretary, Tom Taylor, testified earlier in the trial that Abell worked with Kay but made no mention of reporting his case to MLB.
Team doctor Milhouse testified that he believed Abell, the team’s sports psychologist, was the liaison to MLB for such an issue. MLB documents state that player drug issues were subject to investigation and disciplinary follow-up by the office of the MLB commissioner.
While Angels officials testified they never saw Kay take illicit drugs, former clubhouse attendant Kris Constanti testified that Kay told him he was taking Norco. Another ex-clubhouse attendant, Vince Willet, testified he saw Kay crush and then snort a pill in the Angels’ clubhouse kitchen during spring training.
Former clubhouse manager Keith Tarter testified that he suspected Kay was using drugs and that Kay told him in 2019 he was concerned because his supply of Suboxone, a drug to treat opioid dependence, was running out. Tarter said he never saw Kay actually use drugs.
Milhouse testified he didn’t learn about the true addictive nature of opioids until 2014 or 2015. He stopped prescribing them for Kay in 2013.
Camela Kay testified that after her ex-husband had a breakdown at Yankees Stadium the same year, he stated in front of Taylor and Mead he was taking five Vicodin a day. Taylor denied it, and Mead said he didn’t recall the conversation. Milhouse also said that during 2009-2013, he typically only prescribed opioids on a short-term basis and that he had put other patients on similar treatment regimens and quantities as Kay. Milhouse testified that he considered the use of opioids five times a day to be an addiction.
The trial continues in Orange County Superior Court this week, with the witness schedule including Skaggs’ widow, Carli, and mother, Debbie Hetman.
Two jurors have already been excused — leaving two alternates for the remainder of the case, which is slated to go to the jury in mid-December.
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