Are the Rangers’ unimpressive metrics a bad omen for the playoffs?
-
Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
When the New York Rangers clinched a playoff berth on March 26, there wasn’t a celebration. There was barely an acknowledgment of the feat in their dressing room after an overtime win against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers.
The accomplishment was procedural, a bridge to greater things.
“If you want to lift the Stanley Cup, you’ve got to get into the playoffs first,” New York center Mika Zibanejad said. “We have bigger goals. That’s Step 1 for us.”
Step 2 is likely winning the Metro Division, the first time the Rangers will have topped their group since 2014-15. Step 3 could be winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHL’s best record this season. Then the real journey begins, step after step, until the Rangers lift the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1994 and the second time since 1940.
Unless they stumble and fall out of the postseason, of course.
The Rangers are a confounding team, and not just because they exited the postseason after one round in 2023. On the surface, they’ve been dominant in the standings and solid on both sides of the puck: Through 78 games, they were sixth in goals and seventh in goals against per game. But look under the hood and one finds a team whose 5-on-5 analytics are utterly pedestrian and in some cases below average.
“The New York Rangers are a bit of an anomaly,” said Meghan Chayka, co-founder of Stathletes.
“Elite special teams and goaltending have boosted average processes and results at 5-on-5,” said Mike Kelly, director of analytics and insights at Sportlogiq.
We explored this imbalance earlier this season. The Rangers have only become more successful since then. With the postseason approaching, it seemed like an ideal time to check again to get a sense of how close the Blueshirts might be to capturing the Cup.
Along with Kelly and Chayka, we picked the hockey brains of Garret Hohl, a data analyst who writes The Five Hohl; Jack Fraser of EP Rinkside; and Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz. All of them sought to answer some questions about the Rangers before the Stanley Cup playoffs start, including the biggest one: Are they legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, despite what the analytics tell us?
How do you square the gap between what the analytics tell us about the Rangers and what they’ve done in the standings?
What’s clear about the Rangers is that they have elite special teams. Through 78 games, New York was fourth in the NHL on the power play (26.4%) and third on the penalty kill (83.6%). Artemi Panarin has scored 61% of his points on the man advantage. Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been solid contributors on both units.
They feasted on the power play under then-coach Gerard Gallant last season too, but the arrival of Peter Laviolette and his staff has improved the penalty kill year over year.
Hohl noted that the Rangers’ penalty differential is also something that sets them apart: Through 78 games, they were fourth in the NHL at plus-32 in penalties drawn versus penalties taken.
As extraordinary as their special teams are, the Rangers’ 5-on-5 play is a bit more concerning, analytically.
“The Rangers have a very ordinary record this season of 5v5 chance generation,” McCurdy said.
This season, the Rangers are 23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall. During their recent 13-4-1 heater, their percentage of shot attempts has jumped up to 11th in the league.
Chayka noted that the Rangers’ puck possession has improved after general manager Chris Drury acquired center Alex Wennberg of the Seattle Kraken and forward Jack Roslovic from the Columbus Blue Jackets before the NHL trade deadline, on March 8. While neither trade created headlines like one for Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel might have for the Blueshirts, they’ve made a subtle positive impact already.
“Those additions have meant nearly a full minute more of puck possession per game at 5-on-5,” said Chayka, noting that the Rangers’ total puck possession time jumped from 15:29 at 5-on-5 in their first 62 games to 16:21 in the following 14 games with Wennberg and Roslovic.
But the Rangers are still just 21st in expected goals percentage. Their expected goals per 60 minutes is a few percentage points weaker than the average NHL team, and their suppression is a full percentage point lower than average.
“This is a little surprising for a team at the top of the standings,” McCurdy said. “But while 5-on-5 chance rates are the first and most important thing about any team — I’ve repeatedly called them ‘the foundation of the sport,’ and I stand by that — they aren’t the only thing.”
No, they’re not the only thing, and the Rangers are proving that — like, for example, when these goals are scored or allowed during the game.
In baseball, not all hits are created equally. A grand slam and a solo home run both go into the HR category on the players’ stats page, but obviously, one had a greater impact on the final score than the other.
It’s not completely analogous, but McCurdy believes that not all goals are created equal, either.
“The regulation goals they’ve scored have come at relatively high-offensive-leverage moments, when they’ve tipped games in their favor, and less often in games that are still safely decided,” he said. “The Rangers have also benefited from the goals they’ve allowed coming at relatively lower-leverage times than you’d expect from pure chance, so that the goaltending they’ve got has benefitted them more than you might expect.”
McCurdy believes these two effects have added upward of nine standings points to the Rangers this season. “They’re the second-luckiest team this season in this sense, after Washington,” he said.
The Rangers have scored the first goal in a game 44 times, tied for fifth in the NHL this season, but they’re also first in the NHL winning percentage (.588) after giving up a contest’s first goal. They’re 33-3-2 when leading after two periods, but they also have the highest winning percentage (.346) when trailing after two periods.
Through 78 games, no team has had won more one-goal games than the Rangers (22), and no team has had a better winning percentage in those games than their 22-4-4 record.
Chayka noted that the Rangers have some shared DNA in that regard with last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Boston Bruins, who led the NHL in winning percentage in one-goal games and when trailing first.
“Their playoff fate might indicate something for the Rangers,” she said, ominously, referencing the Bruins’ shocking first-round loss last year.
The Rangers also have feasted on the Metro Division this season.
“Team goal differentials and the standings tend to have a fairly strong correlation, but that relationship is a lot weaker this year in the Metro,” McCurdy said of the Rangers. “On top of that, they have potentially overperformed their in-division goal differential. They have about a 0.78 in-division point percentage compared to 0.67 outside the division, despite outscoring their divisional opponents by a less significant margin.”
Obviously, some things have broken right for New York to be challenging for the Presidents’ Trophy. But the sum total of the Rangers’ performance wouldn’t dramatically change if their luck did, according to Kelly.
“If you ran this season back again, all things being equal, there’s a good chance the Rangers wouldn’t have quite as good a record, but I don’t believe they would be that far off,” he said. “There are a few other playoff teams that are equal if not greater examples of likely overperforming in terms of process versus results this season.”
Fraser trusts the process. He believes the Rangers are better than what the public analytics models like expected goals are presenting, noting that tracking data reveals them to be the best team at passes across the slot and in the top five for preventing them, for example.
Fraser said there’s about a three-point difference between public and private models for the Rangers’ projected points based on expected goal differential.
“What gets them to the 115 points they’re projected for now is a combination of finishing and goaltending, which has been consistent throughout the season,” Fraser said. “Igor Shesterkin has been fine. But most notably, they’ve gotten excellent performance from a backup for the first time in years.”
What impresses you the most about the Rangers, and what leaves you most confused about them?
The most common theme in the responses: While the Rangers don’t excel at everything, they’re also not terrible at anything.
“They’ve got a lot of pathways to winning games,” McCurdy said. “That will make them hard to play against in the playoffs, where you’d prefer to say, ‘Well, their main strength is X and our plan for that is Y.’ There are too many strengths, and the weaknesses don’t really stick out.”
The worst that could be said about some of the Rangers’ 5-on-5 metrics is that they’re ordinary or slightly below average. But this isn’t a team getting cratered by opponents every game then relying on Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick to drag them into a playoff seed.
Kelly believes the goaltending just needs to be is sufficient for the Rangers to thrive.
“They are virtually unbeatable when they get adequate goaltending, which, since the All-Star break, is far more often than not,” he said. “The Rangers lead the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes since Shesterkin’s reset at the break. They give up more chances than some other elite teams, but their combination of scoring ability — though top-heavy — and goaltending makes them a real threat.”
Kelly noted that in the first 41 games in which the Rangers’ goalies posted a positive goals saved above expected, they won 39 of them, the best winning percentage in the NHL in that category. They won 95% of those games, with no other team finishing north of 90% in that span.
That’s the goal-prevention story. The goal-scoring story is equally as compelling.
McCurdy noted that the Rangers roster “is good at turning chances into goals, considerably better than league average.”
There’s no better example of this than Panarin, whose 46 goals in 78 games shattered his previous career high. He is fifth in the NHL in goals versus expected goals (12.44), with a 16.1% shooting rate.
His dominance has helped make the Rangers’ top line with Alexis Lafreniere and Vincent Trocheck a “superb” trio, according to Fraser.
“It’s unbelievable how often they manage to get the goalie moving by passing the puck; according to AllThreeZones, all three of them are in the top 15 in high-danger passes leading to a shot,” he said. “What’s most surprising is that Laf and Trocheck have struggled to score goals relative to the quality of their opportunities. So, the question becomes: Will their postseason opponents force them to play a more grinding style or will they start to capitalize even more?”
There’s another key group that has Fraser a little more concerned: The defensive pairing of Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren, long one of the NHL’s most effective duos.
“What happened to them? The on-ice goal numbers are terrific, as usual, but that team is uncharacteristically getting out-chanced by a huge margin,” he said. “Can Lindgren get back on track?”
Fox and Lindgren had an expected goals per 60 minutes of 2.37 last season, but it has ballooned to 2.83 this season.
Kelly was a little concerned about the Rangers being a top-heavy team. Their top six scorers are all over 50 points on the season; no one else has had more than 30 points through 78 games.
“Can they get some offense from their bottom six? The Wennberg line has been on the right side of things but pretty low-event in its minutes,” Kelly said.
McCurdy was confounded by why the Rangers aren’t even better than they are.
“How [can] their 5-on-5 results manage to be as average as they are, considering the talent necessary to succeed at special teams,” he said. “I guess special teams really do deserve the name.”
Which all leads back to the biggest question about the Rangers.
“Are they for real?” Kelly asked. “I think that’s what we’re all trying to figure out here. As mentioned, they are probably not quite what their record shows. But every time I think I have a handle on them, they surprise me.”
How legitimate are the Rangers as a Stanley Cup contender?
Being the best isn’t always the best thing in the NHL. The Presidents’ Trophy has been awarded to the team with the league’s best record since 1985-86. That team has gone on to win the Stanley Cup only eight times — including the 1993-94 Rangers.
New York has the fifth-best odds at ESPN BET to win the championship. Stathletes gives the Blueshirts a 4.8% chance of winning the Cup, which is 11th-best among current playoff teams.
Kelly said the Rangers would be in his second tier as a Stanley Cup contender.
“I don’t think they have fatal flaws, but it is a slippery slope when you rely so heavily on special teams and goaltending,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean you can’t get to a Cup Final or even win the Cup.”
Kelly noted that the Florida Panthers made the Stanley Cup Final last season with an expected goals rate of under 50% at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, an average power play and a lackluster penalty kill. The Tampa Bay Lightning rode dominant special teams and Andrei Vasilevskiy to lift the Cup in 2021.
“In the small sample size that are the Stanley Cup playoffs, elite shooting talent or luck, coupled with strong goaltending, can be enough to win it all,” Kelly noted. “The Rangers are capable of both.”
Hohl noted, using McCurdy’s research, the Rangers are good but that the areas in which the team excels are relatively “less important” when it comes to winning the Cup.
He added that 5-on-5 offense and goaltending are the two most important indicators for a Cup champion, “and they only got two of those going for them.” The next important gauges are 5-on-5 defense and the power play, he said, “and again, they only have one of those two going for them.” Being great on the penalty kills hasn’t been a dependable predictor of NHL champions.
That said, McCurdy feels the Rangers are “as good a bet as any other teams” to win the Cup.
“They’re hardly paper tigers,” he said. “Against general opposition, they have so many strong aspects to their game that they will have a good chance no matter who they play.”
Well, except for one team.
“They’ll match up poorly against a team like Carolina, who will be able to control 5-on-5 play against them almost entirely,” McCurdy said. “[The Canes] might be able to dictate a style of play that will keep the games at 5-on-5 most of the time.”
Chayka also noted that a second-round meeting with the Hurricanes could present a significant block in the road to the Stanley Cup for New York, as Carolina is the top team in the East, according to Stathletes’ Power Score.
Guentzel, the Hurricanes’ trade deadline coup, has eight goals in seven games against the Rangers in his postseason career.
There will be challenges for the Rangers in the playoffs. Plenty of them. But they’ve already shown to be better than expected. It is anyone’s Stanley Cup to lift. Why not bring it back to Broadway?
“This season is so wide open that I don’t have trouble imagining them getting hot at the right time,” Fraser concluded.
Who will be the best running backs in college football in 2025?
We asked our college football reporters to vote for their top 10, distributing points based on their selections (10 points for a first-place vote, 9 points for second place and so on).
The results at the top include some familiar faces who made a mark in the College Football Playoff last season, but further down the list are some key transfers in new places and two freshmen who burst on to the scene, among others.
Here’s a look at our picks for the top 10 running backs in college football:
Points: 96 (8 of 10 first-place votes)
2024 stats: 163 carries, 1,125 yards, 17 TDs; 28 receptions, 237 yards, 2 TDs
Love emerged as Notre Dame’s top offensive playmaker during his sophomore season with 1,125 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry. The only two FBS running backs with 150-plus attempts to average more yards per carry last season were Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and Louisville’s Isaac Brown.
Love, at 6 feet and 212 pounds, is as effective earning the tough yards, as evidenced by his tackle-breaking touchdown against Penn State in the College Football Playoff, as he is breaking big plays. He had eight touchdowns of 30 yards or longer last season. The Irish want to get him the ball even more in 2025, as Love has lined up some as a wide receiver during spring practice. He caught 28 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns in 2024. — Chris Low
Points: 82 (2 of 10 first-place votes)
2024 stats: 172 carries, 1,099 yards, 12 TDs; 41 receptions, 375 yards, 5 TDs
Singleton faced five-star expectations when he enrolled at Penn State in 2022 and has lived up to them throughout his time in State College. Now he’s coming back for his senior season to chase a national championship after helping the Nittany Lions break through to the CFP semifinals last season.
Singleton has put up a combined 4,673 all-purpose yards over the past three seasons, second most among all FBS backs behind Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, and 41 career touchdowns. He has shared carries every season, averaging just 12.2 rushes per game over his career, but has consistently been highly productive and a true home run threat as a rusher, receiver and kick returner. — Max Olson
Points: 68
2024 stats: 220 carries, 1,108 yards, 8 TDs; 18 receptions, 153 yards, 2 TDs
ESPN’s Mel Kiper had Allen ranked as the No. 6 draft-eligible running back in the 2025 NFL draft class earlier this year. But rather than jumping to the pros, Allen will resume his position at Penn State as part of one of the nation’s most talented backfields alongside fourth-year quarterback Drew Allar and rushing partner Nicholas Singleton.
The Nittany Lions’ physical complement to Singleton and his elusive rushing style, Allen carried 220 times — fourth most among Big Ten running backs — and finished with 1,108 rushing yards and eight touchdowns as a junior in 2024. The 5-foot-11, 229-pound rusher averaged 6.7 yards per attempt across four postseason games, and ball security stands among his most valuable traits — Allen has lost one fumble across 559 career carries. — Eli Lederman
Points: 51
2024 stats (with Tulane): 265 carries, 1,401 yards, 15 TDs; 19 receptions, 176 yards, 2 TDs
The Tulane transfer ran for 1,401 yards last fall, ninth most nationally and more than any other returning running back. Hughes established himself as an exceptionally productive talent in two seasons with the Green Wave, and he lands at Oregon with two years of eligibility as an ideal replacement for 1,267-yard rusher Jordan James.
Hughes broke out for 1,378 yards on 258 carries as a freshman in 2023 before effectively replicating that rushing season. A key uptick in 2024: Hughes’ rushing touchdown count climbed from seven to 15. His 949 yards after first contact in 2024, per TruMedia, also leads all returning rushers in 2025. As the Ducks break in new quarterback Dante Moore, Hughes’ production and dependability could be especially important. — Lederman
Points: 45
2024 stats: 165 carries, 1,173 yards, 11 TDs; 30 receptions, 152 yards, 1 TD
There’s a good argument that last season, as a true freshman, Brown was the most explosive back in the country. Brown led all power-conference backs in yards per rush (7.11), had the fifth-most explosive runs (12 yards or more) with 33 and forced 41 missed tackles. His 8.2 yards-per-carry average between the tackles was a full yard better than any other power-conference running back. Brown also was a threat out of the backfield and in the return game. He eclipsed 99 yards of all-purpose yardage in eight of his past 10 games. — David Hale
Points: 38
2024 stats (with Louisiana-Monroe): 237 carries, 1,351 yards, 13 TDs; 8 receptions, 72 yards, 0 TDs
Hardy established himself as one of the top true freshmen in college football last season at Louisiana-Monroe. He rushed for 1,351 yards, including eight 100-yard games, and scored 13 touchdowns. He was overlooked by recruiters coming out of high school but was one of the top running back targets in the transfer portal and landed at Missouri.
Hardy, 5-foot-10 and 205 pounds, is at his best making defenders miss and churning out yards after contact. He was one of seven players nationally to have 1,000 yards or more after contact (1,012) last season. Hardy forced 91 missed tackles — only Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo had more. With Kewan Lacy leaving for Ole Miss, Hardy will get all the carries he can handle in 2025. — Low
Points: 31
2024 stats: 184 carries, 966 yards, 5 TDs; 52 receptions, 579 yards, 4 TDs
Reid made the move up from FCS Western Carolina to follow his offensive coordinator, Kade Bell, to Pitt last year and quickly proved he’s one of the most dynamic offensive playmakers in college football. The 5-8, 175-pound playmaker put up 1,704 all-purpose yards — 966 rushing, 579 receiving and 159 on punt returns — and scored 10 total touchdowns in an All-America debut season.
Reid achieved all that despite missing two games because of injury, and he finished fifth among all FBS players in all-purpose yards per game (154.9). The do-it-all back had three 200-yard performances over his first four games with the Panthers and will return for his senior season to produce plenty more in 2025. — Olson
Points: 19
2024 stats: 226 carries, 1,064 yards, 5 TDs; 44 receptions, 311 yards, 1 TD
Wisner stepped up in a big way for the Longhorns in 2024. Despite a depleted running back room and injuries to the offensive line across different portions of the season, Wisner had 1,064 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, adding 311 yards and another touchdown through the air. CJ Baxter should be back for the Longhorns after missing 2024 with a knee injury, but given what we saw from Wisner, he should still be well in the mix in the Texas backfield. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Points: 17
2024 stats: 169 carries, 944 yards, 9 TDs; 28 receptions, 166 yards, 3 TDs
Haynes, a wide receiver turned running back, has been one of the most consistent players in Georgia Tech’s offense over the past two seasons. Since 2023, Haynes has 2,003 yards on the ground and 16 touchdowns.
His versatility is something every team looks for in a back — he’s good at getting yards before defenders can get a hand on him (856 rushing yards before contact over the past two seasons, the most of any power-conference back in that span, per Pro Football Focus) and he’s good after they get a hand on him (his 1,145 yards after contact rank fourth, per PFF). In Haynes’ third year, the Yellow Jackets will be expecting much of the same. — Lyles
Points: 16
2024 stats: 175 carries, 1,028 yards, 12 TDs; 22 receptions, 217 yards, 1 TD
By mid October 2024, Washington had just 186 rushing yards and a touchdown to his credit (nearly all of which came against Air Force) and Baylor was a miserable 2-4 on the season. Then coach Dave Aranda tabbed Washington to serve as the Bears’ lead back, and everything changed.
Over the next six games, Washington racked up 127 carries for 818 yards and 11 touchdowns as Baylor won six straight. Washington was banged up early in Baylor’s bowl game against LSU and got just five carries — it’s no coincidence the Bears lost — but his growth throughout 2024 paired with that of quarterback Sawyer Robertson has Baylor thinking playoff in 2025. — Hale
Also receiving votes: Jonah Coleman, Washington, 15 points; Jaydn Ott, California, 14; Jahiem White, West Virginia, 14; Darius Taylor, Minnesota, 13; Caden Durham, LSU, 11; Jadan Baugh, Florida, 8; Nate Frazier, Georgia, 6; Jadarian Price, Notre Dame, 2; Le’Veon Moss, Texas A&M, 2; CJ Baxter, Texas, 1; Roman Hemby, Indiana 1
-
Josh Weinfuss
AHMED HASSANEIN‘S JOURNEY to the doorstep of the NFL began on a balcony seven years ago in Cairo around a hookah.
With the roar of Cairo International Airport in the distance, Hassanein joined his two sisters, brother and nephew trading puffs in the sixth-floor penthouse they grew up in overlooking the Heliopolis suburb.
As they passed the hookah, Hassanein’s sisters, Gigi and Aziza Ibrahim, told Hassanein’s older brother, Cory Besch, about Hassanein’s life over the past decade after moving from California at age 6. Hassanein had forgotten how to speak English, had behavioral issues that caused him to be expelled from school, and was being raised by his mother, who he said had a substance abuse disorder.
“She was a very, very abusive person,” Hassanein told ESPN. “Like starting with addiction, with drugs and all that stuff, and she was really verbally abusive and physically abusive.”
Through it all, Hassanein took solace in sports including breakdancing, soccer, swimming, basketball, boxing, jujitsu, pingpong and CrossFit. He became the top-ranked CrossFit athlete in Egypt and one of the best in Africa. It also helped him cultivate a strong work ethic.
Besch, who was 30 at the time and making his first trip to Egypt in 20 years, hadn’t seen Hassanein in a decade. After hearing from his siblings that night — June 26, 2018 — Besch started formulating a plan to get Hassanein, then 15, back to the United States.
“I was like, ‘Well, what if he came and lived with me and played football for me?'” said Besch, who coached at Loara High School in Anaheim, California.
It was a major pivot for Hassanein, who was set to attend Riverside Preparatory, a military school in Gainesville, Georgia.
“I remember Aziza telling me, ‘It’s going to be really hard, and it’s going to be one of the most difficult things you’ve ever done because the culture shock is going to be there, you’re going to lose all your friends, you can’t speak English very well,'” Hassanein said.
“And I was like, ‘I can do it.'”
During a family vacation at a resort on the Red Sea later that week, Besch helped convince their father to let him move away 7,500 miles. A month later, Hassanein was on a plane to Los Angeles.
Fast-forward to today and — despite initial language barriers, lack of football knowledge and playing the sport for the first time as a sophomore in high school — Hassanein is on the verge of becoming the first Egyptian to be drafted into the NFL. ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller has the former Boise State defensive end, who is 6-foot-2, 267 pounds, going in the sixth round at pick No. 216 in his latest mock draft.
“It was surreal to think that we just dreamed this to save Ahmed and get him to the U.S., like ‘Project Mission: Get Ahmed to the U.S.,’ and then it was ‘Mission: Get Ahmed into College,’ and now it’s ‘Mission: Get Ahmed into the NFL,'” Gigi said from her apartment in Cairo.
“But it’s all surreal because who would’ve thought that Ahmed would be great at being a defensive lineman in American football when literally seven years ago, he was just sitting on the balcony praying that someone would … get him out of this misery.”
THE CULTURE SHOCK was real for Hassanein when he moved in with Besch in August 2018.
Everything from the food to the language to school was different. And then there was football.
All Hassanein knew about the sport was what Besch had posted on social media, most recently playing in a second-tier Austrian league from March to June 2018, just before he visited Egypt.
“People run and hit each other,” Hassanein recalled. “That’s all I know.”
When Hassanein arrived in California, Besch gave him a crash course, explaining everything from how to put on his pads, helmet and mouth guard to the sport’s rules.
“Everything from line of scrimmage to downs to your role and responsibility on the defense,” Besch said. “And I don’t think everything was explained explicitly because you don’t ever go back and explain the X’s and O’s in high school, right?”
Hassanein didn’t know how to get in a stance or how to catch a ball, said Mitch Olson, Hassanein’s head coach at Loara. His school’s football program was in one of the lower levels in California and didn’t have the resources other schools around them had. Each coach was in charge of multiple positions, and most of the kids didn’t play football before ninth grade because there wasn’t a youth program in the district.
“It’s like the kid got pulled off of Mars and started playing football,” Olson said.
Still, Olson saw the potential in the 16-year-old sophomore. He lined up Hassanein, then 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, at defensive tackle on the junior varsity team for the first game of the season before moving him up to varsity. It was, by all accounts, an experiment.
Hassanein had at least one penalty every game because of his unfamiliarity with the rules. There was a game in which he grabbed a quarterback’s face mask to bring him down and another in which he tripped the quarterback, who was about to scramble by him. He remembered throwing players, kicking people and flipping them like in jiujitsu.
“I was out there just doing whatever,” Hassanein said. “I was just out there being physical. See ball, get ball.”
In fall 2018, Hassanein was watching highlights of former Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald.
“What high school does he go to?” Hassanein asked his brother.
“And he was like, ‘Bro, that’s the NFL, that’s the National Football League.’ I was like, ‘OK, I want to go there.’ And he was like, ‘Bro, you know you don’t have a D-line coach at your high school and you don’t have a sled?'”
It didn’t matter to Hassanein. After talking to his brother and Olson, and watching videos, he devised a plan: Hassanein began waking up at 5 a.m. every day to work out before school. After school, he’d go to practice — either football or basketball, depending on the season — and then go back to the gym for three to four hours a night.
Everything started to click for Hassanein midway through his sophomore season.
The key, Besch, Olson and defensive coordinator Jonathan Rangel decided, was to let Hassanein’s natural strength make up for whatever technique he lacked. It worked.
Eventually, Besch started taking Hassanein to camps, where he was facing — and outplaying — prospects from top high school programs around Southern California such as St. John Bosco and Mater Dei. The night before one camp, Hassanein studied pass-rush moves on YouTube and implemented them the next day.
Colleges noticed the three-star pass rusher. On Aug. 27, 2020, as his senior season was postponed until the spring because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Hassanein received a direct message from Spencer Danielson, now Boise State’s head coach, who was then coaching the defensive line. He loved Hassanein’s film.
Hassanein told his brother, who couldn’t believe it. Besch played football with Danielson at Azusa Pacific University. Hassanein relayed that information to Danielson, and they hopped on a Zoom call to explain the situation.
Hassanein had scholarship offers from Fresno State, Duke, Kansas and Colorado before eventually choosing Boise State.
Had Hassanein’s life followed his initial plan of going to military school, looking back, he thought he’d return to Egypt after four years. Instead, he was living out a dream he never knew he had.
“It meant the world to me that somebody believed, and my brother always believed in me, but it gave me confirmation that I can do this,” Hassanein said. “I took it as a challenge because I had a lot of family members say, ‘You’re going to come back in two weeks. You’re never going to succeed. You can’t even speak English. How the hell are you going to play football?’
“And I really made it. I took it as, ‘OK, watch this.'”
DANIELSON STOOD OUTSIDE Boise State’s football facility on a June morning in 2021 with a hope and a prayer.
Because of COVID-19 restrictions, neither Danielson nor any of his coaches were able to recruit Hassanein in person, so the first time they met him was when he stepped out of the car that day. Sitting in the back of Danielson’s mind was the fact that Besch was 5-foot-8, 150 pounds in college.
“I’m waiting for him at the front of the facility like, ‘Please be 6-3. Please be 6-3,'” Danielson recalled to ESPN. “If he pops out and he’s 5-9 and Cory got me, I’m going to be really hot.
“And he pops out and he just looks like a Greek god. I’m like, ‘Yes.'”
His first year on campus, Hassanein looked like some of the Broncos’ juniors and was lifting more weight than a number of the upperclassmen, Boise State edge coach Jabril Frazier said.
From a football standpoint, Hassanein was very much a freshman.
“He didn’t know what was going on,” Frazier said. “But he played at a high level.”
Danielson’s way of rectifying that was with his “Football School,” a weeklong program leading into fall camp for all of Boise State’s incoming freshmen. It covered everything from the width of the field — 53.3 yards — to the verbiage Boise State’s coaches prefer to the fundamentals of tackling to A, B and C gaps.
For Hassanein, college football was an entirely new game. In high school, he relied on his natural ability to dominate. Not so much in college. He had to account for how the offensive lineman across from him lined up and blocked in every possible scenario and what kind of offense he was facing on a weekly basis.
It was essentially Football 101 for Hassanein.
“It was really eye-opening,” he said.
In 20 games over his first two seasons, he had two sacks. Then, going into his junior year in 2023, it all clicked. Hassanein finished with 12.5 sacks and was mentioned among the nation’s best pass rushers.
Heading into his senior season, he was coming off labrum surgery and spent the spring watching his own film and breaking down his games while he rehabbed. Hassanein had 9.5 sacks in 2024, giving him 24 for his career, the fourth most in school history.
“I currently have him projected as a late fifth- to early sixth-round pick as teams are always looking for pass-rush help,” ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid said. “Hassanein will likely be a part of special teams early on during his career while he searches to earn a role as a contributor on defense.”
Hassanein is on the verge of making international history. When he does, it will be an emotional moment for those who helped him on the journey.
“The journey that dude made and the guts that he had to do, the things that he did to get to where he is, it is storybook, man,” Olson said. “It really is. It’s a frigging movie.”
He knows he’s not the biggest or quickest, but he says he thinks his strength will help him become a disruptive pass rusher at the next level.
Danielson described Hassanein as “one of the most violent run defenders we’ve ever had here,” pointing to the Broncos’ first defensive play of the Fiesta Bowl against Penn State.
It was first-and-10 from the Nittany Lions’ 28-yard line when Penn State tight end Tyler Warren went in motion from left to right, overloading the side closest to Hassanein. It was a run and, with a running start, Hassanein bulldozed Warren back four yards, throwing him to the ground in the process.
To Danielson, that play is everything teams need to know about Hassanein.
“Once he gets there, he’s going to be all over the coaches about being better, getting better, getting help,” Frazier said. “Give him a year to two years in the NFL and you’ll be hearing his name a lot.”
As the defending Presidents’ Trophy winners, the New York Rangers were envisioned as a playoff team again in 2024-25. As the team on top of the league standings in early December, similar words could be written about the Minnesota Wild.
And yet, heading into Wednesday night’s matchup between the clubs (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+), nothing is certain about either team’s playoff chances after the pair has gone 8-9-3 in the past 10 games apiece.
The Wild enter the game in a playoff position, and have a 91.0% chance to make the playoffs per Stathletes. A key part of that is the team’s remaining strength of schedule; their remaining opponents have a 46.0% winning percentage, which is the second-easiest path. (Only the New Jersey Devils face a weaker slate in the final stretch.)
Compare that to the Rangers, who have a 27.3% chance, and will begin this game on the outside looking in. New York’s remaining slate is considerably more difficult; a 54.1% opponents’ winning percentage ranks as the second toughest, behind only the Detroit Red Wings.
If the Wild qualify as the first wild card, their likely first-round opponent is the Vegas Golden Knights; if they land in the second wild-card position, their likely opponent is the Winnipeg Jets. Unfortunately, Minnesota went 0-3 against both teams this season.
The Rangers’ more likely outcome as a playoff entrant is as the second wild card, which earns them a matchup against the Washington Capitals; the Caps have won all three games against New York this season. The Rangers could wind up as the first wild card, earning a matchup against the Atlantic Division champ. They went 1-2 against the Toronto Maple Leafs, 0-2 against the Florida Panthers (with one more game coming up on April 14), and 0-1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning (with games coming up on April 7 and April 17).
So, the future isn’t blindingly bright in the playoffs for these teams. But all you need is a ticket in, and unexpected things can happen!
There are just over two weeks left until the season’s end on April 17, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Minnesota Wild
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 St. Louis Blues
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Wednesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Minnesota Wild at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m. (TNT)
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m.
Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, 9:30 p.m. (TNT)
Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks, 10:30 p.m.
Tuesday’s scoreboard
Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 3
Montreal Canadiens 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Buffalo Sabres 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Columbus Blue Jackets 8, Nashville Predators 4
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 1
St. Louis Blues 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Utah Hockey Club 3, Calgary Flames 1
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Anaheim Ducks 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)
Los Angeles Kings 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 104.1
Next game: vs. FLA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 102.0
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 93.1
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 87.5
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 44.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: vs. CAR (Friday)
Playoff chances: 2.9%
Tragic number: 13
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: vs. TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 5
Metro Division
Points: 105
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 116.4
Next game: @ CAR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 105.6
Next game: vs. WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 6
Points pace: 93.9
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 86.5
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 16.7%
Tragic number: 17
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85.3
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 27.3%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. MIN (Friday)
Playoff chances: 8.7%
Tragic number: 12
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 76.6
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 5
Central Division
Points: 106
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 115.9
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 102
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 113.0
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 102.8
Next game: @ CHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 6
Points pace: 96.0
Next game: vs. PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 92.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 96.2
Next game: @ NYR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 91%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 87.5
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 7
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 67.8
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 56.5
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 108.6
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 100.8
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 90.9
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 13.9%
Tragic number: 11
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 89.8
Next game: vs. SEA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 2.7%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: 3
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 74.3
Next game: @ VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 55.4
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports12 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway