Are the Rangers’ unimpressive metrics a bad omen for the playoffs?
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
When the New York Rangers clinched a playoff berth on March 26, there wasn’t a celebration. There was barely an acknowledgment of the feat in their dressing room after an overtime win against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers.
The accomplishment was procedural, a bridge to greater things.
“If you want to lift the Stanley Cup, you’ve got to get into the playoffs first,” New York center Mika Zibanejad said. “We have bigger goals. That’s Step 1 for us.”
Step 2 is likely winning the Metro Division, the first time the Rangers will have topped their group since 2014-15. Step 3 could be winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHL’s best record this season. Then the real journey begins, step after step, until the Rangers lift the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1994 and the second time since 1940.
Unless they stumble and fall out of the postseason, of course.
The Rangers are a confounding team, and not just because they exited the postseason after one round in 2023. On the surface, they’ve been dominant in the standings and solid on both sides of the puck: Through 78 games, they were sixth in goals and seventh in goals against per game. But look under the hood and one finds a team whose 5-on-5 analytics are utterly pedestrian and in some cases below average.
“The New York Rangers are a bit of an anomaly,” said Meghan Chayka, co-founder of Stathletes.
“Elite special teams and goaltending have boosted average processes and results at 5-on-5,” said Mike Kelly, director of analytics and insights at Sportlogiq.
We explored this imbalance earlier this season. The Rangers have only become more successful since then. With the postseason approaching, it seemed like an ideal time to check again to get a sense of how close the Blueshirts might be to capturing the Cup.
Along with Kelly and Chayka, we picked the hockey brains of Garret Hohl, a data analyst who writes The Five Hohl; Jack Fraser of EP Rinkside; and Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz. All of them sought to answer some questions about the Rangers before the Stanley Cup playoffs start, including the biggest one: Are they legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, despite what the analytics tell us?
How do you square the gap between what the analytics tell us about the Rangers and what they’ve done in the standings?
What’s clear about the Rangers is that they have elite special teams. Through 78 games, New York was fourth in the NHL on the power play (26.4%) and third on the penalty kill (83.6%). Artemi Panarin has scored 61% of his points on the man advantage. Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been solid contributors on both units.
They feasted on the power play under then-coach Gerard Gallant last season too, but the arrival of Peter Laviolette and his staff has improved the penalty kill year over year.
Hohl noted that the Rangers’ penalty differential is also something that sets them apart: Through 78 games, they were fourth in the NHL at plus-32 in penalties drawn versus penalties taken.
As extraordinary as their special teams are, the Rangers’ 5-on-5 play is a bit more concerning, analytically.
“The Rangers have a very ordinary record this season of 5v5 chance generation,” McCurdy said.
This season, the Rangers are 23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall. During their recent 13-4-1 heater, their percentage of shot attempts has jumped up to 11th in the league.
Chayka noted that the Rangers’ puck possession has improved after general manager Chris Drury acquired center Alex Wennberg of the Seattle Kraken and forward Jack Roslovic from the Columbus Blue Jackets before the NHL trade deadline, on March 8. While neither trade created headlines like one for Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel might have for the Blueshirts, they’ve made a subtle positive impact already.
“Those additions have meant nearly a full minute more of puck possession per game at 5-on-5,” said Chayka, noting that the Rangers’ total puck possession time jumped from 15:29 at 5-on-5 in their first 62 games to 16:21 in the following 14 games with Wennberg and Roslovic.
But the Rangers are still just 21st in expected goals percentage. Their expected goals per 60 minutes is a few percentage points weaker than the average NHL team, and their suppression is a full percentage point lower than average.
“This is a little surprising for a team at the top of the standings,” McCurdy said. “But while 5-on-5 chance rates are the first and most important thing about any team — I’ve repeatedly called them ‘the foundation of the sport,’ and I stand by that — they aren’t the only thing.”
No, they’re not the only thing, and the Rangers are proving that — like, for example, when these goals are scored or allowed during the game.
In baseball, not all hits are created equally. A grand slam and a solo home run both go into the HR category on the players’ stats page, but obviously, one had a greater impact on the final score than the other.
It’s not completely analogous, but McCurdy believes that not all goals are created equal, either.
“The regulation goals they’ve scored have come at relatively high-offensive-leverage moments, when they’ve tipped games in their favor, and less often in games that are still safely decided,” he said. “The Rangers have also benefited from the goals they’ve allowed coming at relatively lower-leverage times than you’d expect from pure chance, so that the goaltending they’ve got has benefitted them more than you might expect.”
McCurdy believes these two effects have added upward of nine standings points to the Rangers this season. “They’re the second-luckiest team this season in this sense, after Washington,” he said.
The Rangers have scored the first goal in a game 44 times, tied for fifth in the NHL this season, but they’re also first in the NHL winning percentage (.588) after giving up a contest’s first goal. They’re 33-3-2 when leading after two periods, but they also have the highest winning percentage (.346) when trailing after two periods.
Through 78 games, no team has had won more one-goal games than the Rangers (22), and no team has had a better winning percentage in those games than their 22-4-4 record.
Chayka noted that the Rangers have some shared DNA in that regard with last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Boston Bruins, who led the NHL in winning percentage in one-goal games and when trailing first.
“Their playoff fate might indicate something for the Rangers,” she said, ominously, referencing the Bruins’ shocking first-round loss last year.
The Rangers also have feasted on the Metro Division this season.
“Team goal differentials and the standings tend to have a fairly strong correlation, but that relationship is a lot weaker this year in the Metro,” McCurdy said of the Rangers. “On top of that, they have potentially overperformed their in-division goal differential. They have about a 0.78 in-division point percentage compared to 0.67 outside the division, despite outscoring their divisional opponents by a less significant margin.”
Obviously, some things have broken right for New York to be challenging for the Presidents’ Trophy. But the sum total of the Rangers’ performance wouldn’t dramatically change if their luck did, according to Kelly.
“If you ran this season back again, all things being equal, there’s a good chance the Rangers wouldn’t have quite as good a record, but I don’t believe they would be that far off,” he said. “There are a few other playoff teams that are equal if not greater examples of likely overperforming in terms of process versus results this season.”
Fraser trusts the process. He believes the Rangers are better than what the public analytics models like expected goals are presenting, noting that tracking data reveals them to be the best team at passes across the slot and in the top five for preventing them, for example.
Fraser said there’s about a three-point difference between public and private models for the Rangers’ projected points based on expected goal differential.
“What gets them to the 115 points they’re projected for now is a combination of finishing and goaltending, which has been consistent throughout the season,” Fraser said. “Igor Shesterkin has been fine. But most notably, they’ve gotten excellent performance from a backup for the first time in years.”
What impresses you the most about the Rangers, and what leaves you most confused about them?
The most common theme in the responses: While the Rangers don’t excel at everything, they’re also not terrible at anything.
“They’ve got a lot of pathways to winning games,” McCurdy said. “That will make them hard to play against in the playoffs, where you’d prefer to say, ‘Well, their main strength is X and our plan for that is Y.’ There are too many strengths, and the weaknesses don’t really stick out.”
The worst that could be said about some of the Rangers’ 5-on-5 metrics is that they’re ordinary or slightly below average. But this isn’t a team getting cratered by opponents every game then relying on Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick to drag them into a playoff seed.
Kelly believes the goaltending just needs to be is sufficient for the Rangers to thrive.
“They are virtually unbeatable when they get adequate goaltending, which, since the All-Star break, is far more often than not,” he said. “The Rangers lead the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes since Shesterkin’s reset at the break. They give up more chances than some other elite teams, but their combination of scoring ability — though top-heavy — and goaltending makes them a real threat.”
Kelly noted that in the first 41 games in which the Rangers’ goalies posted a positive goals saved above expected, they won 39 of them, the best winning percentage in the NHL in that category. They won 95% of those games, with no other team finishing north of 90% in that span.
That’s the goal-prevention story. The goal-scoring story is equally as compelling.
McCurdy noted that the Rangers roster “is good at turning chances into goals, considerably better than league average.”
There’s no better example of this than Panarin, whose 46 goals in 78 games shattered his previous career high. He is fifth in the NHL in goals versus expected goals (12.44), with a 16.1% shooting rate.
His dominance has helped make the Rangers’ top line with Alexis Lafreniere and Vincent Trocheck a “superb” trio, according to Fraser.
“It’s unbelievable how often they manage to get the goalie moving by passing the puck; according to AllThreeZones, all three of them are in the top 15 in high-danger passes leading to a shot,” he said. “What’s most surprising is that Laf and Trocheck have struggled to score goals relative to the quality of their opportunities. So, the question becomes: Will their postseason opponents force them to play a more grinding style or will they start to capitalize even more?”
There’s another key group that has Fraser a little more concerned: The defensive pairing of Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren, long one of the NHL’s most effective duos.
“What happened to them? The on-ice goal numbers are terrific, as usual, but that team is uncharacteristically getting out-chanced by a huge margin,” he said. “Can Lindgren get back on track?”
Fox and Lindgren had an expected goals per 60 minutes of 2.37 last season, but it has ballooned to 2.83 this season.
Kelly was a little concerned about the Rangers being a top-heavy team. Their top six scorers are all over 50 points on the season; no one else has had more than 30 points through 78 games.
“Can they get some offense from their bottom six? The Wennberg line has been on the right side of things but pretty low-event in its minutes,” Kelly said.
McCurdy was confounded by why the Rangers aren’t even better than they are.
“How [can] their 5-on-5 results manage to be as average as they are, considering the talent necessary to succeed at special teams,” he said. “I guess special teams really do deserve the name.”
Which all leads back to the biggest question about the Rangers.
“Are they for real?” Kelly asked. “I think that’s what we’re all trying to figure out here. As mentioned, they are probably not quite what their record shows. But every time I think I have a handle on them, they surprise me.”
How legitimate are the Rangers as a Stanley Cup contender?
Being the best isn’t always the best thing in the NHL. The Presidents’ Trophy has been awarded to the team with the league’s best record since 1985-86. That team has gone on to win the Stanley Cup only eight times — including the 1993-94 Rangers.
New York has the fifth-best odds at ESPN BET to win the championship. Stathletes gives the Blueshirts a 4.8% chance of winning the Cup, which is 11th-best among current playoff teams.
Kelly said the Rangers would be in his second tier as a Stanley Cup contender.
“I don’t think they have fatal flaws, but it is a slippery slope when you rely so heavily on special teams and goaltending,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean you can’t get to a Cup Final or even win the Cup.”
Kelly noted that the Florida Panthers made the Stanley Cup Final last season with an expected goals rate of under 50% at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, an average power play and a lackluster penalty kill. The Tampa Bay Lightning rode dominant special teams and Andrei Vasilevskiy to lift the Cup in 2021.
“In the small sample size that are the Stanley Cup playoffs, elite shooting talent or luck, coupled with strong goaltending, can be enough to win it all,” Kelly noted. “The Rangers are capable of both.”
Hohl noted, using McCurdy’s research, the Rangers are good but that the areas in which the team excels are relatively “less important” when it comes to winning the Cup.
He added that 5-on-5 offense and goaltending are the two most important indicators for a Cup champion, “and they only got two of those going for them.” The next important gauges are 5-on-5 defense and the power play, he said, “and again, they only have one of those two going for them.” Being great on the penalty kills hasn’t been a dependable predictor of NHL champions.
That said, McCurdy feels the Rangers are “as good a bet as any other teams” to win the Cup.
“They’re hardly paper tigers,” he said. “Against general opposition, they have so many strong aspects to their game that they will have a good chance no matter who they play.”
Well, except for one team.
“They’ll match up poorly against a team like Carolina, who will be able to control 5-on-5 play against them almost entirely,” McCurdy said. “[The Canes] might be able to dictate a style of play that will keep the games at 5-on-5 most of the time.”
Chayka also noted that a second-round meeting with the Hurricanes could present a significant block in the road to the Stanley Cup for New York, as Carolina is the top team in the East, according to Stathletes’ Power Score.
Guentzel, the Hurricanes’ trade deadline coup, has eight goals in seven games against the Rangers in his postseason career.
There will be challenges for the Rangers in the playoffs. Plenty of them. But they’ve already shown to be better than expected. It is anyone’s Stanley Cup to lift. Why not bring it back to Broadway?
“This season is so wide open that I don’t have trouble imagining them getting hot at the right time,” Fraser concluded.
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David Schoenfield
Welcome to the original … the amazing … the astonishing … ESPN still-too-early All-Star selections — full of wonderful surprises and fun debates for all ages.
A lot can change in the month before the 2025 All-Star announcements, but we’re deep enough into the season that we can make some educated guesses on what the rosters will look like — or should look like — for this year’s Midsummer Classic in Atlanta on July 15.
The usual rules apply: 32 players per team, broken down into 20 position players and 12 pitchers (at least three relievers), with one representative from each MLB club. Players will be considered for the position they’re listed at on the official All-Star ballot.
Let’s dive into baseball’s most power-packed league.
National League
Top starter debates
First base: Freddie Freeman vs. Pete Alonso
It looks as if Freeman — whom I’ve referred to as the new David Ortiz — will keep hitting until he retires or until his legs eventually give out. Freeman’s numbers were down a bit last season as he dealt with injuries and the health scare to his son, but he’s raking once again and leads the NL in batting average (.354), is tied for first in doubles (20, with Alonso and Brendan Donovan), ranks second in OPS (1.024) and third in OPS+ (189). At 35 years old, he’s as good as ever — maybe better.
Alonso had a couple of soft All-Star selections the past two years, making it last season despite a sub-.800 OPS in the first half and in 2023, despite hitting just .211 (albeit with 26 home runs). This season is shaping up as his best all-around campaign at the plate, even if he’ll fall short of the 53 home runs he hit as a rookie in 2019. He has cut down his strikeout rate, is hitting around .300 and leads the NL with 61 RBIs thanks to a .356 average with runners in scoring position.
This is a coin flip, especially because Freeman spent time on the injured list early this season. Both have also been incredible in high-leverage situations, with Freeman hitting .211/.448/.368 and Alonso even better at .346/.486/.615. That does it for me. Alonso gets the nod.
Third outfielder: James Wood vs. Kyle Tucker vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
The first outfield selection is easy: Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is making a strong case for NL MVP thanks to his spectacular defense, baserunning and surprising power at the plate (he leads the NL in Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR) and could have an incredible 10-WAR season. The last NL player to do that: Barry Bonds in 2004. I don’t know whether Crow-Armstrong can keep hitting this well, considering his chase rate (third worst in the majors), but pitchers haven’t exploited that aggressiveness yet.
Corbin Carroll gets the second nod. No arguments there. The next three are right there with Carroll — all worthy starters. Tucker is having another superb all-around season, hitting for power, getting on base and stealing bases to earn a fourth straight All-Star selection. Tatis has slowed down after a hot April (1.011 OPS) but adds Gold Glove defense in right field.
My nod, however, goes to Wood. The sophomore sensation is hitting .270/.366/.533 with 16 home runs, getting the ball in the air more often than last season (although with much more growth potential in that area) and displaying elite numbers all over his Baseball Savant page. Physically, the 22-year-old resembles Aaron Judge — and it’s perhaps a little premature to point this out, but Judge hit .308/.419/.486 at age 22 … in High-A.
Second base: Ketel Marte vs. Brendan Donovan vs. Brice Turang vs. Nico Hoerner
Can we shift a couple of these players to the AL? These four are bunched closely in WAR, although they got there in different ways. Marte, last year’s starter, is having another monster offensive season, but he missed a month because of a hamstring strain. Donovan is hitting over .300 with a bunch of doubles and adds flexibility by filling in at left field and shortstop. Turang and Hoerner are defensive wizards without much power but add enough offensive value by getting on base and stealing bases.
My vote goes to Marte. He’s the best player of the group, and only the injury holds him back in the debate. He’s hitting .294/.418/.603 with 12 home runs in 39 games and has more walks than strikeouts, ranking in the 90th-plus percentile in walk rate and lowest strikeout rate. What a fantastic player — often overlooked. Donovan makes it as the backup, while Turang and Hoerner draw the short straw and are left off my hypothetical team.
Starters
Here’s my NL starting lineup:
C: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
1B: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2B: Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
3B: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
SS: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
OF: James Wood, Washington Nationals
DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Smith is an easy call at catcher. He’s one of 11 Dodgers catchers to make an All-Star team in franchise history. Can any team match that many All-Stars at one position?
Machado and Lindor are the clear leaders at their positions, and Ohtani is matching his offensive prowess from 2024, minus a few stolen bases. Skenes is only 4-6 and his strikeout rate has dipped more than 6 percentage points from last season, but he has a 1.88 ERA and is in line to start for the second time in his two seasons in the majors.
Reserves
C: Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies
1B: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
2B: Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals
3B: Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants
SS: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
SS: Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
OF: Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs
OF: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
OF Juan Soto, New York Mets
OF: Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
DH: Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Believe it or not, the lowly Rockies have two reasonable All-Star candidates in Goodman and reliever Jake Bird. Bird has been good for 35 innings, but let’s go with Goodman as the backup catcher, given the lack of a strong candidate because players such as William Contreras and J.T. Realmuto are having down seasons and others such as Carson Kelly and Drake Baldwin are excelling but in part-time roles.
Betts and De La Cruz get the nod at shortstop over Trea Turner, Geraldo Perdomo, Masyn Winn and CJ Abrams in a deep group of candidates. Betts isn’t having his best season, but he’s one of the game’s marquee players and the others haven’t outplayed him enough to kick him off this roster. The backup DH slot is down to Schwarber, Marcell Ozuna and Seiya Suzuki — with all three putting up nice numbers, but Schwarber’s are a little nicer.
And, yes, we managed to squeeze Soto onto the team, especially as he heats up with another three-hit game Sunday (and three walks), raising his OPS to .820. Stowers represents the Marlins, pushing out a third second baseman or Jackson Merrill, who might have made it if he hadn’t missed a month on the IL.
Pitchers
SP: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
SP: MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
SP: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
SP: Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants
SP: Kodai Senga, New York Mets
SP: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP: Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
RP: Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
RP: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
RP: Randy Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants
Peralta makes it as our Brewers rep but is a worthy selection with a 2.69 ERA. He makes it over Reds teammates Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott.
The game is at Truist Park in Atlanta, so it would be nice to get more Braves on the team — but Sale is the only one I squeezed onto the roster. Ozuna, Austin Riley and Spencer Schwellenbach still have time to play their way onto the team, but the last time the Braves had just one All-Star rep was 2017, when Ender Inciarte was the only selection. It would be a far cry from two seasons ago, when the Braves had eight All-Stars.
American League
Top starter debates
Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Jeremy Peña vs. Jacob Wilson
Here are their current stats:
Witt: .291/.349/.492, 8 HR, 135 OPS+, 3.4 bWAR, 3.5 fWAR
Peña: .316/.373/.480, 9 HR, 139 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR
Wilson: .372/.408/.528, 8 HR, 163 OPS+, 2.8 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR
Peña has been terrific in helping keep afloat Houston’s offense, which lost Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason and has been without a productive Yordan Alvarez. Peña has dropped his strikeout rate for a third straight season, and Baseball-Reference, which gives him the highest WAR among the three, loves his defense.
Wilson debuted last season with the A’s but still has rookie status, which puts him on a potential track for some historic rookie numbers. The last rookie to hit .350? Ichiro Suzuki in 2001. The only rookie since 1900 to hit .370? George Watkins in the juiced ball season of 1930 when he hit .373 (and even then, he had just 424 plate appearances, so wouldn’t qualify under current standards). Highest average for a rookie shortstop? Johnny Pesky at .331 in 1942. With eight home runs, Wilson is even hitting for more power than expected. His defense, however, isn’t on par with Witt or Peña.
Witt’s home run numbers are down from last season, but he leads the majors with 22 doubles. With the weather heating up, some of those doubles should turn into home runs. His defense remains spectacular, and he leads the AL in stolen bases. He’s a true star, and though there’s time for Peña or Wilson to pass him, Witt should be starting his first All-Star Game in 2025 — the first of many.
Starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal vs. Kris Bubic
Skubal is making a strong push to defend his 2024 AL Cy Young Award, while Bubic has put up a surprisingly dominant first half for the Royals. The numbers:
Skubal: 6-2, 2.16 ERA, 83.1 IP, 61 H, 7 BB, 105 SO, 3.1 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR
Bubic: 5.3, 1.43 ERA, 75.1 IP, 53 H, 22 BB, 79 SO, 3.5 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR
Bubic — who pitched in 27 games for the Royals last season, all in relief — is a 27-year-old lefty, a former first-round pick out of Stanford who had Tommy John surgery in 2023. His fastball isn’t overpowering at 92-93 mph, but he has added more spin than before his surgery to improve its whiff rate and his changeup is one of the best in the game (batters are hitting .100 against it). Though maintaining a 1.43 ERA isn’t likely, he has been really good and not just lucky.
Sticking with my “He’s done it before” analysis, however, Skubal is the pick — and it’s hard to argue that he’s not the best starter in the majors. That strikeout-to-walk ratio is incredible, plus he seems to be heating up, allowing just one run over his past three starts.
First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Paul Goldschmidt vs. Jonathan Aranda vs. Spencer Torkelson
Meh. Guerrero has made four straight All-Star appearances, including three starts, but he has benefited from subpar competition. First base in the AL has been consistently lacking in stars for a long time.
Anyway, the numbers … and, no, I didn’t have Goldschmidt on my Bingo card either:
Guerrero: .273/.380/.417, 8 HR, 29 RBIs, 1.7 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR
Goldschmidt: .312/.369/.464, 7 HR, 29 RBIs, 1.7 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR
Aranda: .320/.406/.490, 7 HR, 34 RBIs, 2.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR
Torkelson: .237/.342/.500 15 HR, 45 RBIs, 1.4 bWAR, 1.5 fWAR
Aranda has the best slash line, although he started only 50 of the Rays’ first 64 games because he wasn’t playing against lefties earlier in the season. He has no track record of hitting like this, but his Statcast metrics are impressive, including a 94th percentile hard-hit rate. Goldschmidt was hitting over .340 just a week ago, so he has been in a slump, but coming off the worst season of his career, he has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees. Torkelson has the best power numbers of the group but is the worst defender and has slowed down after a hot start.
I’ll stick with Guerrero as the starter. Nobody else has done quite enough, although any of the four could separate from the pack with a hot June. I’ll make Aranda the backup, a nod to his nice start.
Starters
My AL starting lineup:
C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2B: Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers
3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
OF: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
OF: Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
DH: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
SP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Raleigh is the landslide choice at catcher, and let’s hope the fans vote him in as the starter. He leads the majors in home runs and is on pace for one of the greatest offensive seasons for a catcher. Torres gets the nod in a very weak group at second base, probably the weakest position in either league. Alex Bregman was battling Ramirez for starting honors at third base until Bregman’s injury.
The AL outfield is also pretty weak, with Judge the one easy choice and Kwan a distant second choice. The third starter is up for grabs. Julio Rodriguez is the selection going by WAR, but his offensive numbers are still way down from his first two seasons in the majors. Devers gets the nod at DH because, despite the slow start and controversy over playing first base, he’s putting up the best OPS of his career.
Reserves
C: Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
1B: Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays
2B: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
3B: Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
3B: Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
SS: Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros
SS: Jacob Wilson, Athletics
OF: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
OF: Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
OF: Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees
DH: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
O’Hoppe is our Angels rep, and Lowe joins teammate Aranda on the All-Star roster. Paredes has quietly had a nice season for the Astros, although Junior Caminero is coming on strong for the Rays, and Bregman will merit consideration if he can make it back soon from his hamstring injury. Greene has had a weird season for the Tigers with a ton of strikeouts, but he has been a mainstay in a better-than-expected Detroit lineup.
Bellinger is one of many other outfield candidates. Any of the three Red Sox outfielders — Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela — could make it (Rafaela on the strength of his defense), and the Athletics’ Lawrence Butler is heating up after a slow start. O’Hearn makes it as the only Orioles rep, and Alvarez’s injury opens a DH slot. Garcia was my final choice, quietly having a nice season for the Royals, hitting over .300 while also starting games at second base and in the outfield.
Pitchers
SP: Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
SP: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
SP: Max Fried, New York Yankees
SP: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
SP: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
SP: Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees
SP: Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
SP: Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
RP: Josh Hader, Houston Astros
RP: Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners
RP: Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins
Look at all those lefties! Besides Skubal, five of the eight other AL starters are left-handed. Brown and Fried have sub-2.00 ERAs and could merit consideration for starting as well — this is a very deep group of AL starters. Nathan Eovaldi is left off only because he’s on the injured list, but he’s not expected to be out long and was as good as anyone with a 1.56 ERA. It’s great to see deGrom back, and even though he’s not as dominant as in his peak Mets days, he still has a 2.12 ERA. Valdez gets the nod over Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan, and Smith makes it as the White Sox rep.
For the relievers, Hader didn’t make the All-Star Game last year, but he’s dominating again, going 17-for-17 in save chances. Munoz had a 0.00 ERA until May 30. Duran is 4-1 with 10 saves and a 1.19 ERA, part of a Twins bullpen that has been the best in the majors. Though they didn’t make the cut, Tigers relievers Tommy Kahnle and Will Vest have been great in late-game duties for Detroit.
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Eli Lederman
Four-star offensive tackle Micah “Champ” Smith, No. 46 in the 2026 ESPN 300, has committed to UCLA, he told ESPN on Saturday, landing as the Bruins’ highest-ranked pledge under coach DeShaun Foster.
Smith, a 6-foot-3, 320-pound lineman from Vero Beach, Florida, is the nation’s seventh-ranked offensive tackle prospect in the current cycle. He chose UCLA over finalists Alabama, Illinois, Ohio State, South Carolina and Tennessee following spring visits with each program.
Smith told ESPN that his relationship with Bruins offensive line coach Andy Kwon, who joined the program this offseason, and the development track he was presented on his May official visit helped drive his pledge to UCLA. Upon his commitment, Smith has formally closed his recruitment and will no longer take visits to other schools this summer.
“My relationship with [Kwon] was a huge factor,” he told ESPN. “That’s the person that’s going to develop you. The culture of the program, that connection with the O-line coach and the opportunity to play when I get there were all big for me.”
The Bruins’ first ESPN 300 pledge in 2026, Smith represents a monumental addition to the program’s second recruiting class under Foster, the 45-year-old coach who took charge of UCLA in February 2024.
If Smith signs with the Bruins later this year, he’ll join UCLA as its highest-ranked signee since quarterback Dante Moore (No. 2 overall) in 2023 and the program’s highest-rated offensive line addition since former second-team All-American Xavier Su’a-Filo arrived as the nation’s No. 34 overall prospect in the 2009 class.
Smith cemented himself as the starting right tackle at Florida’s Vero Beach High School in 2023. He played both ways as a junior last fall, operating primarily at right tackle and recording 22 tackles (6.5 for loss) and 2.5 sacks on the defensive line. In January, Smith was among the first class of high school juniors invited to the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game.
Smith lands as the Bruins’ ninth overall pledge and first offensive line addition in the 2026 class.
“I just felt it when I went there — it felt like home to me,” Smith said of his official visit to UCLA. “I was never certain of when I was going to commit. But when I felt right about it, I knew I was going to be ready to make that the time to do it. It felt right.”
Following Smith’s decision, six of the nation’s top 10 offensive tackles recruits are now off the board, led by Miami pledge Jackson Cantwell (No. 3 overall) and fellow five-star Keenyi Pepe (No. 17), who committed to USC on May 1. Five-star offensive tackle Immanuel Iheanacho (No. 12) narrowed his finalists to Auburn, LSU, Oregon and Penn State on Friday and will visit each program this month ahead of his Aug. 5 commitment date.
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Adam Rittenberg
Michigan wrapped up a two-day hearing Saturday before the NCAA’s committee on infractions, which is examining potential punishments for impermissible scouting and sign-stealing, orchestrated by former football staff member Connor Stalions.
A Michigan spokesman told ESPN that the school would not be commenting until there is a final resolution to the case, which likely wouldn’t come until later this summer or fall. Infractions decisions usually take three months, although that could vary depending on the complexity of the case, according to the spokesman.
The school faces 11 violations, six of them Level I, the most serious tier from the NCAA. Most of the violations concern the scouting and sign-stealing operation overseen by Stalions, who was seen entering NCAA headquarters for the infraction committee hearings, according to Sports Illustrated. Stalions resigned from his position as football analyst in November 2023, several days after news of the investigation went public. Michigan administrators and attorneys also attended the hearings.
The NCAA already has punished former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh with a four-year show-cause penalty and a one-year suspension for violations in a separate investigation into illegal recruiting during the COVID-19 period. The Big Ten took the unusual step of suspending Harbaugh for Michigan’s final three regular-season games in 2023 for violating its sportsmanship policy because of the sign-stealing scandal. Michigan went on to win the national championship that season.
Harbaugh, now coaching the Los Angeles Chargers, did not attend this week’s hearing but could face additional penalties. Other former Michigan assistant coaches could face penalties, but the focus will be on punishment for the current program and its coaches, including head coach Sherrone Moore.
Michigan is expected to suspend Moore in Weeks 3 and 4 of the 2025 season, part of self-imposed penalties, after he deleted a thread of 52 text messages with Stalions. The NCAA has since obtained those messages, which Moore later said he looked forward to being released. Still, he could face additional penalties from the infractions committee and be considered a repeat offender; he served a one-game suspension in 2023 for his role in the COVID-19 recruiting violations probe.
Michigan also could be labeled a repeat offender and receive additional penalties, including recruiting restrictions or a postseason ban.
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