Are the Rangers’ unimpressive metrics a bad omen for the playoffs?
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
When the New York Rangers clinched a playoff berth on March 26, there wasn’t a celebration. There was barely an acknowledgment of the feat in their dressing room after an overtime win against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers.
The accomplishment was procedural, a bridge to greater things.
“If you want to lift the Stanley Cup, you’ve got to get into the playoffs first,” New York center Mika Zibanejad said. “We have bigger goals. That’s Step 1 for us.”
Step 2 is likely winning the Metro Division, the first time the Rangers will have topped their group since 2014-15. Step 3 could be winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHL’s best record this season. Then the real journey begins, step after step, until the Rangers lift the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1994 and the second time since 1940.
Unless they stumble and fall out of the postseason, of course.
The Rangers are a confounding team, and not just because they exited the postseason after one round in 2023. On the surface, they’ve been dominant in the standings and solid on both sides of the puck: Through 78 games, they were sixth in goals and seventh in goals against per game. But look under the hood and one finds a team whose 5-on-5 analytics are utterly pedestrian and in some cases below average.
“The New York Rangers are a bit of an anomaly,” said Meghan Chayka, co-founder of Stathletes.
“Elite special teams and goaltending have boosted average processes and results at 5-on-5,” said Mike Kelly, director of analytics and insights at Sportlogiq.
We explored this imbalance earlier this season. The Rangers have only become more successful since then. With the postseason approaching, it seemed like an ideal time to check again to get a sense of how close the Blueshirts might be to capturing the Cup.
Along with Kelly and Chayka, we picked the hockey brains of Garret Hohl, a data analyst who writes The Five Hohl; Jack Fraser of EP Rinkside; and Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz. All of them sought to answer some questions about the Rangers before the Stanley Cup playoffs start, including the biggest one: Are they legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, despite what the analytics tell us?
How do you square the gap between what the analytics tell us about the Rangers and what they’ve done in the standings?
What’s clear about the Rangers is that they have elite special teams. Through 78 games, New York was fourth in the NHL on the power play (26.4%) and third on the penalty kill (83.6%). Artemi Panarin has scored 61% of his points on the man advantage. Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been solid contributors on both units.
They feasted on the power play under then-coach Gerard Gallant last season too, but the arrival of Peter Laviolette and his staff has improved the penalty kill year over year.
Hohl noted that the Rangers’ penalty differential is also something that sets them apart: Through 78 games, they were fourth in the NHL at plus-32 in penalties drawn versus penalties taken.
As extraordinary as their special teams are, the Rangers’ 5-on-5 play is a bit more concerning, analytically.
“The Rangers have a very ordinary record this season of 5v5 chance generation,” McCurdy said.
This season, the Rangers are 23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall. During their recent 13-4-1 heater, their percentage of shot attempts has jumped up to 11th in the league.
Chayka noted that the Rangers’ puck possession has improved after general manager Chris Drury acquired center Alex Wennberg of the Seattle Kraken and forward Jack Roslovic from the Columbus Blue Jackets before the NHL trade deadline, on March 8. While neither trade created headlines like one for Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel might have for the Blueshirts, they’ve made a subtle positive impact already.
“Those additions have meant nearly a full minute more of puck possession per game at 5-on-5,” said Chayka, noting that the Rangers’ total puck possession time jumped from 15:29 at 5-on-5 in their first 62 games to 16:21 in the following 14 games with Wennberg and Roslovic.
But the Rangers are still just 21st in expected goals percentage. Their expected goals per 60 minutes is a few percentage points weaker than the average NHL team, and their suppression is a full percentage point lower than average.
“This is a little surprising for a team at the top of the standings,” McCurdy said. “But while 5-on-5 chance rates are the first and most important thing about any team — I’ve repeatedly called them ‘the foundation of the sport,’ and I stand by that — they aren’t the only thing.”
No, they’re not the only thing, and the Rangers are proving that — like, for example, when these goals are scored or allowed during the game.
In baseball, not all hits are created equally. A grand slam and a solo home run both go into the HR category on the players’ stats page, but obviously, one had a greater impact on the final score than the other.
It’s not completely analogous, but McCurdy believes that not all goals are created equal, either.
“The regulation goals they’ve scored have come at relatively high-offensive-leverage moments, when they’ve tipped games in their favor, and less often in games that are still safely decided,” he said. “The Rangers have also benefited from the goals they’ve allowed coming at relatively lower-leverage times than you’d expect from pure chance, so that the goaltending they’ve got has benefitted them more than you might expect.”
McCurdy believes these two effects have added upward of nine standings points to the Rangers this season. “They’re the second-luckiest team this season in this sense, after Washington,” he said.
The Rangers have scored the first goal in a game 44 times, tied for fifth in the NHL this season, but they’re also first in the NHL winning percentage (.588) after giving up a contest’s first goal. They’re 33-3-2 when leading after two periods, but they also have the highest winning percentage (.346) when trailing after two periods.
Through 78 games, no team has had won more one-goal games than the Rangers (22), and no team has had a better winning percentage in those games than their 22-4-4 record.
Chayka noted that the Rangers have some shared DNA in that regard with last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Boston Bruins, who led the NHL in winning percentage in one-goal games and when trailing first.
“Their playoff fate might indicate something for the Rangers,” she said, ominously, referencing the Bruins’ shocking first-round loss last year.
The Rangers also have feasted on the Metro Division this season.
“Team goal differentials and the standings tend to have a fairly strong correlation, but that relationship is a lot weaker this year in the Metro,” McCurdy said of the Rangers. “On top of that, they have potentially overperformed their in-division goal differential. They have about a 0.78 in-division point percentage compared to 0.67 outside the division, despite outscoring their divisional opponents by a less significant margin.”
Obviously, some things have broken right for New York to be challenging for the Presidents’ Trophy. But the sum total of the Rangers’ performance wouldn’t dramatically change if their luck did, according to Kelly.
“If you ran this season back again, all things being equal, there’s a good chance the Rangers wouldn’t have quite as good a record, but I don’t believe they would be that far off,” he said. “There are a few other playoff teams that are equal if not greater examples of likely overperforming in terms of process versus results this season.”
Fraser trusts the process. He believes the Rangers are better than what the public analytics models like expected goals are presenting, noting that tracking data reveals them to be the best team at passes across the slot and in the top five for preventing them, for example.
Fraser said there’s about a three-point difference between public and private models for the Rangers’ projected points based on expected goal differential.
“What gets them to the 115 points they’re projected for now is a combination of finishing and goaltending, which has been consistent throughout the season,” Fraser said. “Igor Shesterkin has been fine. But most notably, they’ve gotten excellent performance from a backup for the first time in years.”
What impresses you the most about the Rangers, and what leaves you most confused about them?
The most common theme in the responses: While the Rangers don’t excel at everything, they’re also not terrible at anything.
“They’ve got a lot of pathways to winning games,” McCurdy said. “That will make them hard to play against in the playoffs, where you’d prefer to say, ‘Well, their main strength is X and our plan for that is Y.’ There are too many strengths, and the weaknesses don’t really stick out.”
The worst that could be said about some of the Rangers’ 5-on-5 metrics is that they’re ordinary or slightly below average. But this isn’t a team getting cratered by opponents every game then relying on Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick to drag them into a playoff seed.
Kelly believes the goaltending just needs to be is sufficient for the Rangers to thrive.
“They are virtually unbeatable when they get adequate goaltending, which, since the All-Star break, is far more often than not,” he said. “The Rangers lead the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes since Shesterkin’s reset at the break. They give up more chances than some other elite teams, but their combination of scoring ability — though top-heavy — and goaltending makes them a real threat.”
Kelly noted that in the first 41 games in which the Rangers’ goalies posted a positive goals saved above expected, they won 39 of them, the best winning percentage in the NHL in that category. They won 95% of those games, with no other team finishing north of 90% in that span.
That’s the goal-prevention story. The goal-scoring story is equally as compelling.
McCurdy noted that the Rangers roster “is good at turning chances into goals, considerably better than league average.”
There’s no better example of this than Panarin, whose 46 goals in 78 games shattered his previous career high. He is fifth in the NHL in goals versus expected goals (12.44), with a 16.1% shooting rate.
His dominance has helped make the Rangers’ top line with Alexis Lafreniere and Vincent Trocheck a “superb” trio, according to Fraser.
“It’s unbelievable how often they manage to get the goalie moving by passing the puck; according to AllThreeZones, all three of them are in the top 15 in high-danger passes leading to a shot,” he said. “What’s most surprising is that Laf and Trocheck have struggled to score goals relative to the quality of their opportunities. So, the question becomes: Will their postseason opponents force them to play a more grinding style or will they start to capitalize even more?”
There’s another key group that has Fraser a little more concerned: The defensive pairing of Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren, long one of the NHL’s most effective duos.
“What happened to them? The on-ice goal numbers are terrific, as usual, but that team is uncharacteristically getting out-chanced by a huge margin,” he said. “Can Lindgren get back on track?”
Fox and Lindgren had an expected goals per 60 minutes of 2.37 last season, but it has ballooned to 2.83 this season.
Kelly was a little concerned about the Rangers being a top-heavy team. Their top six scorers are all over 50 points on the season; no one else has had more than 30 points through 78 games.
“Can they get some offense from their bottom six? The Wennberg line has been on the right side of things but pretty low-event in its minutes,” Kelly said.
McCurdy was confounded by why the Rangers aren’t even better than they are.
“How [can] their 5-on-5 results manage to be as average as they are, considering the talent necessary to succeed at special teams,” he said. “I guess special teams really do deserve the name.”
Which all leads back to the biggest question about the Rangers.
“Are they for real?” Kelly asked. “I think that’s what we’re all trying to figure out here. As mentioned, they are probably not quite what their record shows. But every time I think I have a handle on them, they surprise me.”
How legitimate are the Rangers as a Stanley Cup contender?
Being the best isn’t always the best thing in the NHL. The Presidents’ Trophy has been awarded to the team with the league’s best record since 1985-86. That team has gone on to win the Stanley Cup only eight times — including the 1993-94 Rangers.
New York has the fifth-best odds at ESPN BET to win the championship. Stathletes gives the Blueshirts a 4.8% chance of winning the Cup, which is 11th-best among current playoff teams.
Kelly said the Rangers would be in his second tier as a Stanley Cup contender.
“I don’t think they have fatal flaws, but it is a slippery slope when you rely so heavily on special teams and goaltending,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean you can’t get to a Cup Final or even win the Cup.”
Kelly noted that the Florida Panthers made the Stanley Cup Final last season with an expected goals rate of under 50% at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, an average power play and a lackluster penalty kill. The Tampa Bay Lightning rode dominant special teams and Andrei Vasilevskiy to lift the Cup in 2021.
“In the small sample size that are the Stanley Cup playoffs, elite shooting talent or luck, coupled with strong goaltending, can be enough to win it all,” Kelly noted. “The Rangers are capable of both.”
Hohl noted, using McCurdy’s research, the Rangers are good but that the areas in which the team excels are relatively “less important” when it comes to winning the Cup.
He added that 5-on-5 offense and goaltending are the two most important indicators for a Cup champion, “and they only got two of those going for them.” The next important gauges are 5-on-5 defense and the power play, he said, “and again, they only have one of those two going for them.” Being great on the penalty kills hasn’t been a dependable predictor of NHL champions.
That said, McCurdy feels the Rangers are “as good a bet as any other teams” to win the Cup.
“They’re hardly paper tigers,” he said. “Against general opposition, they have so many strong aspects to their game that they will have a good chance no matter who they play.”
Well, except for one team.
“They’ll match up poorly against a team like Carolina, who will be able to control 5-on-5 play against them almost entirely,” McCurdy said. “[The Canes] might be able to dictate a style of play that will keep the games at 5-on-5 most of the time.”
Chayka also noted that a second-round meeting with the Hurricanes could present a significant block in the road to the Stanley Cup for New York, as Carolina is the top team in the East, according to Stathletes’ Power Score.
Guentzel, the Hurricanes’ trade deadline coup, has eight goals in seven games against the Rangers in his postseason career.
There will be challenges for the Rangers in the playoffs. Plenty of them. But they’ve already shown to be better than expected. It is anyone’s Stanley Cup to lift. Why not bring it back to Broadway?
“This season is so wide open that I don’t have trouble imagining them getting hot at the right time,” Fraser concluded.
Sports
‘I didn’t know Kyle Tucker spoke’: Why the ‘silent assassin’ could be MLB’s next $400 million star
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Jesse Rogers
TEN YEARS AGO in Tampa, Kyle Tucker was on the verge of a special achievement: breaking Plant High School’s home run record, held by his brother Preston, then a rookie with the Houston Astros.
Fans and scouts lined the fences at Wade Boggs Field to watch the latest star — as well as pitching prospect Jake Woodford — at a school known for churning out baseball talent. But Tucker hadn’t had a hit in three games and was struggling — at least by his standards — according to his coach, Dennis Braun.
“The entire grass was full from dugout to dugout with scouts, which I’ve never seen before,” Braun recalled from his office. “Kyle hadn’t had a hit in like three games then he nubs a ball back to the pitcher and he didn’t make it to first base.”
Braun — as old-school as they come — wanted to pull Tucker for the lack of hustle, but he also didn’t want to risk hurting his player’s reputation with scouts watching.
“I’m like, ‘son of a b—-,’ but I let him play,” Braun said.
Instead, Braun delivered his message in private after the game, telling Tucker to always run out every ball and to just relax and play his game no matter the stakes.
Message received. In the next game, Tucker went 4-for-4 with two home runs, finishing the season with 31 home runs, breaking his brother’s career mark. Braun understood then what the rest of the baseball world has learned in the years since as Tucker made his ascent from south Florida prep star to a big league outfielder projected to earn $300-$400 million in free agency next offseason.
“Hands down, his sixth tool is he’s both mentally and physically the toughest kid I’ve ever seen,” Braun stated. “It’s not even close.”
That’s saying something, considering who else has walked the halls at Plant High. The Panthers play their home games on a field named after a Hall of Fame third baseman who is still their most famous alum, but they have also produced major leaguers Pete Alonso, Mychal Givens, Woodford, Corey Brown and Darren Clarke along with 2024 first-round pick Jac Caglianone and the Tucker brothers.
The younger Tucker graduated from Plant with the best high school career of them all, culminating in being selected by the Astros with the No. 5 pick in the 2015 MLB draft. Since then, he has improved every year, including a monster half-season in 2024 in which he produced 4.7 fWAR despite being limited to just 78 games because of a shin injury.
After being dealt to Chicago in a blockbuster trade during the offseason, the Cubs hope Tucker can lead them to the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2018 before he hits free agency. His high school coach believes Tucker — and his sweet swing — will deliver no matter the pressure, just as he always has.
“They started nicknaming him Ted Williams,” Braun said. “That stuck for a while.”
UNLIKE THE HEADLINING stars of recent free agent classes — Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto — Tucker is not a household name. Some of that comes from his quiet personality as you won’t find him bat-flipping or making waves with his postgame comments, but his former teammates insist there is a funny, loose side the public has rarely seen.
“Last year at spring training people got a glimpse of it,” Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena said with a smile. “He got miked up for a whole day. All the fans kept saying, ‘I didn’t know Kyle Tucker spoke.’ But to us it was normal. He was our DJ. He’s very outgoing. He’s funny. I feel like the fans will enjoy that side of him.”
Alonso — high school teammates with Tucker for two seasons — likens his personality to his game. Steady and consistent, from his prep days into his major league career.
“Honestly, he’s the same guy,” Alonso said after a recent spring training game. “He hasn’t changed a bit. I mean, he keeps the game simple. He’s just got this even-keel emotion about him both on and off the field.”
Tucker is aware of his reputation but says he does speak up when he needs to — even if he prefers to let his game do the talking.
“I feel like people think I’m pretty quiet and reserved, which I guess I am, but people probably think I’m more [reserved] than I actually am,” Tucker said recently. “I’m decently outgoing.”
Tucker also has been able to fly under the radar while putting up MVP-level numbers during his career because of all the talent around him. During his seven seasons with the Astros, he played for loaded teams, with stars like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Yordan Alvarez getting most of the spotlight.
That could change with his new team this year as Tucker now enters the season as undoubtedly the best hitter in his own lineup. But there’s always been a time when Tucker was the center of attention, whether as a prep sensation drawing crowds to a Florida high school or as one of the most coveted players in the majors entering his platform season: It’s whenever he unleashes his swing at a baseball.
“It’s God-given talent,” Yordan Alvarez said through Houston’s team interpreter. “It’s a natural swing. … It hurts me that I’m not going to be sharing time with him. When he’s on a hot streak I think he’s one of the top hitters in baseball.”
IN AN ERA of constant mechanical overhauls to even the game’s best hitters, Tucker’s swing looks just as it did when he was breaking records in high school.
“Why would you mess with Ted Williams?” Braun said with a half-serious laugh, crediting the lack of rotation of his back foot that allows Tucker to stay in the zone longer than most hitters and evokes comparisons to the Splendid Splinter.
The praise of the swing from Tucker’s high school coach is echoed by others who work with elite hitters around the sport.
“It’s only unique in some of the bat shapes he gets in early,” said Troy Snitker, his former hitting coach with the Astros. “The swing itself is elite. It may look a little different in the way he slots the bat and some of the wrist angles and the flatness of his bat but after that it’s an elite swing.”
Tucker’s new hitting coach with the Cubs, Dustin Kelly, agrees with his American League counterpart: “The length that he has, the way he sets [the bat] flatter and creates a ton of rotation. So impressive.”
The effectiveness of Tucker’s swing goes beyond the aesthetic qualities that leave coaches and teammates raving. When he steps to the plate, the quiet, mild-mannered Tucker transforms into something else.
“What makes Kyle Tucker such a great hitter goes beyond the mechanics,” Pena said. “When he steps up to the plate he believes that he’s the greatest hitter on earth. … He’s a player that’s going to go in there, beat you and go home, play some video games, show up the next day and beat you again and keep doing it.
“He’s a silent assassin.”
Tucker’s biggest improvement over the last few seasons has come as much from understanding when not to swing as when to try to drive a pitch. In 2021, his walk rate was just 9.4% — 59th among qualified hitters. It has jumped in every season since, rising all the way to 16.5% last season — third in the majors, behind only Judge and Soto.
“The last couple of years I really tried to hone in on not chasing and trying to just control the strike zone better,” Tucker said. “Because you can be a drastically different player if you change nothing else but just swinging at strikes and not balls. I think I’ve done a better job at that.”
AS HIS ABILITY to lay off of pitches has moved into the class of Judge and Soto, so has Tucker’s potential offseason payday. He nearly broke the arbitration system over the winter as it couldn’t account for the massive numbers he put up in only half a season last year. Tucker and the Cubs finally settled on a contract worth $16.5 million for 2025. If he picks up where he left off, he’ll be due another huge raise when he hits free agency. He and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. appear to be the top free agents in next winter’s class, both likely to command mid-nine-figure deals.
“The numbers are crazy these days but if he has a Tucker-like year, how can he not command $400 million or more?” one executive of a small-market team said. “I’m not saying this either way, but some people believe he’s better than Soto.”
Tucker will turn 29 next winter while Soto signed with the Mets two months after turning 26, so the odds of his deal approaching Soto’s record $765 million contract are nonexistent. Still, those who have shared a dugout with Tucker point to his all-around ability as a difference-maker.
“He was the complete player,” said A.J. Hinch, who managed Tucker in Houston from 2017 to 2019. “He could come up and change the game in a few different ways. On a team that was pretty talented, he still stood out.”
During his time with the Astros, Tucker showed his diverse skill set in making three All-Star teams, winning both a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, twice belting 30 home runs, stealing 30 bases in 2023 and becoming one of the sport’s elite players.
“I think him and Manny Machado play the game so similarly because the game’s easy for those guys,” Alonso said. “It’s very fluid, very relaxed, because for them it’s just natural. Things came natural [to Tucker] and he just has one of those swings that it plays and it’s always played.
“He’s one of the best in the game, and the only thing that’s going to change about him is his contractual situation, not his play, not his attitude towards the game. He’s just like he was back then.”
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Chris Low
By this time in any postseason, talent and depth typically rise to the top.
Now that we’re down to the Sweet 16 in our 2025 mock NCAA football tournament, that’s apparent with 11 of the 16 teams coming from either the Big Ten or SEC.
All four No. 1 seeds are still alive, and No. 12 seed Memphis has engineered two upsets to get this far. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker all played starring roles in the first two rounds, and Ryan Silverfield has Memphis riding an eight-game winning streak.
To recap, the original seeds were based to a large degree on ESPN’s latest SP+ projections entering the 2025 season, although seeds are a moot point as we tee it back up.
Time to finish the tournament. And the best news? There’s no blaming anything on a committee.
Midwest Regional
Semifinals
(1) Ohio State 28, (5) BYU 23: How do you cover Buckeyes receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? It’s a question teams asked all season. The Cougars do their best to keep Smith from torching them, but Tate does most of the damage with eight catches for 124 yards and two touchdowns.
(3) Tennessee 34, (2) Oregon 32: The Vols get back to their explosive ways on offense in 2025 with quarterback Nico Iamaleava making a big jump in his third year on campus. Oregon matches that explosiveness with Evan Stewart pulling in two acrobatic catches, leading to a late touchdown. The Ducks get the ball back, but an Arion Carter sack seals the game for Tennessee.
Regional final
(1) Ohio State 31, (3) Tennessee 21: The Vols get another shot at the Buckeyes after getting blown out in Columbus last season in the first round of the playoff. This game is much closer, and Tim Banks’ Tennessee defense holds up most of the way. But the same guy who wreaked havoc on the Vols a year ago does it again. Smith has two of his three touchdown catches in the second half to lead Ohio State to its 10th straight win.
How we got here
First round
(1) Ohio State over (16) Boston College
(2) Oregon over (15) UCF
(3) Tennessee over (14) Pittsburgh
(4) South Carolina over (13) North Carolina
(5) BYU over (12) Colorado
(11) Kentucky over (6) Louisville
(7) TCU over Georgia Tech
(9) Arkansas over (8) Boise State
Second round
(1) Ohio State over (9) Arkansas
(2) Oregon over (7) TCU
(3) Tennessee over (11) Kentucky
(5) BYU over (4) South Carolina
South Regional
Semifinals
(5) Illinois 27, (1) Texas 24: The shocker of the tournament so far, but don’t tell that to Illinois coach Bret Bielema. In his fifth season at Illinois, he had a good feeling about this team all along. The Illini returned 18 starters from their bowl team a year ago, and the two stars on defense, outside linebacker Gabe Jacas and cornerback Xavier Scott, play like stars against a Texas offense that never finds any rhythm.
(2) Notre Dame 31, (3) Miami 20: The infamous “Catholics vs. Convicts” T-shirts are reintroduced to the college football world, and that’s what everybody is talking about in the buildup to this game. Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore steals the show with interceptions in each half, the final one leading to the clinching touchdown for the Irish.
Regional final
(2) Notre Dame 28, (5) Illinois 21: Jeremiyah Love’s development and toughness epitomized Notre Dame’s run to the semifinals last year. He’s even more of a factor this year, and his ability to make big plays and earn the tough yards against a stout Illinois defense is the difference in this Elite Eight matchup. Love’s tackle-breaking 8-yard touchdown run gives the Irish the lead for good and caps a 138-yard rushing night.
How we got here
First round
(1) Texas over (16) Maryland
(2) Notre Dame over (15) California
(3) Miami over (14) Kansas
(4) Florida over (13) James Madison
(5) Illinois over (12) N.C. State
(11) Virginia Tech over (6) Iowa
(7) USC over (10) Minnesota
(8) Texas Tech over (9) Utah
Second round
(1) Texas over (8) Texas Tech
(2) Notre Dame over (7) USC
(3) Miami over (6) Virginia Tech
(5) Illinois over (4) Florida
East Regional
Semifinals
(1) Penn State 35, (12) Memphis 17: Memphis’ improbable run to the Sweet 16 comes to a crushing end as Penn State builds a 21-3 lead, then tees off defensively on a Memphis offense that has to resort to throwing the ball on just about every down. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen each rush for more than 100 yards for the Nittany Lions, who finish with 290 yards on the ground as a team.
(2) Alabama 27, (3) Michigan 23: In a rematch of the Rose Bowl two years ago (Nick Saban’s final game), Alabama gets a little revenge for its old coach. The Crimson Tide are held to a single touchdown in the first half, but the defense keeps them in it. Trailing 20-17 entering the fourth quarter, Alabama finds its running game. Jam Miller erupts for 72 rushing yards in the final quarter, and the Tide bullies their way into the Elite Eight.
Regional final
(2) Alabama 22, (1) Penn State 19: Ty Simpson has waited his turn at quarterback for the Crimson Tide, and even though they don’t light up the scoreboard in this defense-dominated matchup of blue bloods, he doesn’t commit a single turnover and keeps everybody on offense focused. But on Alabama’s final two drives, Simpson throws a 28-yard touchdown pass to put the Tide ahead and later converts a fourth-and-short to put the game away.
How we got here
First round
(1) Penn State over (16) West Virginia
(2) Alabama over (15) Syracuse
(3) Michigan over (14) Army
(4) SMU over (13) Tulane
(12) Memphis over (5) Texas A&M
(11) Wisconsin over (6) Oklahoma
(7) Indiana over (10) Washington
(9) Nebraska over (8) Arizona State
Second round
(1) Penn State over (9) Nebraska
(2) Alabama over (7) Indiana
(3) Michigan over (11) Wisconsin
(12) Memphis over (4) SMU
West Regional
Semifinals
(1) Georgia 35, (4) LSU 31: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton got a taste of postseason football last year when he filled in for Carson Beck. That experience proves valuable in this back-and-forth game, with Nussmeier throwing three touchdown passes for LSU. But Stockton is able to spread the ball around with Noah Thomas and Zachariah Branch, both transfer receivers, and tight end Oscar Delp all catching touchdown passes.
(2) Clemson 33, (3) Ole Miss 24: Dabo Swinney and Lane Kiffin have been on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to using the transfer portal. Swinney has barely dipped into it at all, and Kiffin has lived in it. Swinney did bring in three transfers this season, and one of them, former Purdue defensive end Will Heldt, makes life miserable for the Ole Miss offensive line. Heldt finishes with two sacks and a forced fumble, and the Tigers march onward.
Regional final
(2) Clemson 31, (1) Georgia 30: Once upon a time, these teams played every year in one of the South’s best nonconference rivalries. The Tigers, who had lost eight of their past nine games against the Bulldogs, fall behind early in this one. But Clemson cornerback Avieon Terrell, flagged for pass interference on the previous possession, intercepts a Stockton pass deep in Clemson territory, leading to a quick touchdown. That’s where the game swings, and the Tigers move a step closer to their third national title in 10 years.
How we got here
First round
(1) Georgia over (16) Oklahoma State
(2) Clemson over (15) Mississippi State
(3) Ole Miss over (14) Cincinnati
(4) LSU over (13) Florida State
(5) Missouri over (12) Rutgers
(11) Vanderbilt over (6) Kansas State
(7) Auburn over (10) Duke
(8) Iowa State over (9) Baylor
Second round
(1) Georgia over (8) Iowa State
(2) Clemson over Auburn (7)
(3) Ole Miss over (11) Vanderbilt
(4) LSU over (5) Missouri
Final Four
(2) Clemson 35, (1) Ohio State 28: The first time these teams played was back in 1978, with Clemson winning 17-15 in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida. It was a blah game until legendary coach Woody Hayes punched Clemson’s Charlie Bauman on the sideline late in the fourth quarter after Bauman intercepted a pass. Hayes was fired the next day. This national semifinal game doesn’t include any extracurricular fireworks that rise to that level, but Klubnik and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin provide plenty of fireworks on the field. They both pass for more than 300 yards, but freshman running back Gideon Davidson delivers the winning 24-yard touchdown run for the Tigers.
(2) Alabama 33, (2) Notre Dame 27: Here the Irish are knocking on the door of a national championship for the second straight season under Marcus Freeman, who’s the subject of countless reports that NFL teams are lining up to hire him. Freeman never gives any credence to those reports, and his Notre Dame team fights its way back from a two-touchdown deficit. Driving inside the Alabama 45 with just under four minutes remaining, Notre Dame tries to run right at 326-pound defensive tackle Tim Keenan III. Big mistake. Keenan blows up the play, forcing a 5-yard loss. Notre Dame has to punt and never gets the ball back, as Alabama’s offensive line takes control of the game.
National Championship
(2) Alabama 30, (2) Clemson 24: It’s not the first time Swinney has gone up against his alma mater in the national championship game. It happened in 2015 with Alabama winning, again in 2016 with Clemson winning and then in 2018 with the Tigers claiming their second national title under Swinney. So, now, welcome to Part 4. All the gnashing of teeth in Tuscaloosa over Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach when he lost (gasp) four games has quieted. Alabama is playing its best football of the season with some of its younger players and veterans stepping up in key roles. But it’s the most electrifying player on Alabama’s roster, receiver Ryan Williams, who wins it for the Tide, their 19th “claimed” national championship. After Antonio Williams gives Clemson the lead with a 46-yard touchdown catch down the right sideline, Ryan Williams caps a 77-yard drive for Alabama with a 2-yard touchdown catch on a pick/rub play. Sound familiar? With Clemson fans cursing the play the same way Alabama did back in 2016, DeBoer breaks through in his second season. His statue on the Walk of Champions is up by the start of the 2026 season.
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