Are the Rangers’ unimpressive metrics a bad omen for the playoffs?
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
When the New York Rangers clinched a playoff berth on March 26, there wasn’t a celebration. There was barely an acknowledgment of the feat in their dressing room after an overtime win against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers.
The accomplishment was procedural, a bridge to greater things.
“If you want to lift the Stanley Cup, you’ve got to get into the playoffs first,” New York center Mika Zibanejad said. “We have bigger goals. That’s Step 1 for us.”
Step 2 is likely winning the Metro Division, the first time the Rangers will have topped their group since 2014-15. Step 3 could be winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHL’s best record this season. Then the real journey begins, step after step, until the Rangers lift the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1994 and the second time since 1940.
Unless they stumble and fall out of the postseason, of course.
The Rangers are a confounding team, and not just because they exited the postseason after one round in 2023. On the surface, they’ve been dominant in the standings and solid on both sides of the puck: Through 78 games, they were sixth in goals and seventh in goals against per game. But look under the hood and one finds a team whose 5-on-5 analytics are utterly pedestrian and in some cases below average.
“The New York Rangers are a bit of an anomaly,” said Meghan Chayka, co-founder of Stathletes.
“Elite special teams and goaltending have boosted average processes and results at 5-on-5,” said Mike Kelly, director of analytics and insights at Sportlogiq.
We explored this imbalance earlier this season. The Rangers have only become more successful since then. With the postseason approaching, it seemed like an ideal time to check again to get a sense of how close the Blueshirts might be to capturing the Cup.
Along with Kelly and Chayka, we picked the hockey brains of Garret Hohl, a data analyst who writes The Five Hohl; Jack Fraser of EP Rinkside; and Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz. All of them sought to answer some questions about the Rangers before the Stanley Cup playoffs start, including the biggest one: Are they legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, despite what the analytics tell us?
How do you square the gap between what the analytics tell us about the Rangers and what they’ve done in the standings?
What’s clear about the Rangers is that they have elite special teams. Through 78 games, New York was fourth in the NHL on the power play (26.4%) and third on the penalty kill (83.6%). Artemi Panarin has scored 61% of his points on the man advantage. Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been solid contributors on both units.
They feasted on the power play under then-coach Gerard Gallant last season too, but the arrival of Peter Laviolette and his staff has improved the penalty kill year over year.
Hohl noted that the Rangers’ penalty differential is also something that sets them apart: Through 78 games, they were fourth in the NHL at plus-32 in penalties drawn versus penalties taken.
As extraordinary as their special teams are, the Rangers’ 5-on-5 play is a bit more concerning, analytically.
“The Rangers have a very ordinary record this season of 5v5 chance generation,” McCurdy said.
This season, the Rangers are 23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall. During their recent 13-4-1 heater, their percentage of shot attempts has jumped up to 11th in the league.
Chayka noted that the Rangers’ puck possession has improved after general manager Chris Drury acquired center Alex Wennberg of the Seattle Kraken and forward Jack Roslovic from the Columbus Blue Jackets before the NHL trade deadline, on March 8. While neither trade created headlines like one for Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel might have for the Blueshirts, they’ve made a subtle positive impact already.
“Those additions have meant nearly a full minute more of puck possession per game at 5-on-5,” said Chayka, noting that the Rangers’ total puck possession time jumped from 15:29 at 5-on-5 in their first 62 games to 16:21 in the following 14 games with Wennberg and Roslovic.
But the Rangers are still just 21st in expected goals percentage. Their expected goals per 60 minutes is a few percentage points weaker than the average NHL team, and their suppression is a full percentage point lower than average.
“This is a little surprising for a team at the top of the standings,” McCurdy said. “But while 5-on-5 chance rates are the first and most important thing about any team — I’ve repeatedly called them ‘the foundation of the sport,’ and I stand by that — they aren’t the only thing.”
No, they’re not the only thing, and the Rangers are proving that — like, for example, when these goals are scored or allowed during the game.
In baseball, not all hits are created equally. A grand slam and a solo home run both go into the HR category on the players’ stats page, but obviously, one had a greater impact on the final score than the other.
It’s not completely analogous, but McCurdy believes that not all goals are created equal, either.
“The regulation goals they’ve scored have come at relatively high-offensive-leverage moments, when they’ve tipped games in their favor, and less often in games that are still safely decided,” he said. “The Rangers have also benefited from the goals they’ve allowed coming at relatively lower-leverage times than you’d expect from pure chance, so that the goaltending they’ve got has benefitted them more than you might expect.”
McCurdy believes these two effects have added upward of nine standings points to the Rangers this season. “They’re the second-luckiest team this season in this sense, after Washington,” he said.
The Rangers have scored the first goal in a game 44 times, tied for fifth in the NHL this season, but they’re also first in the NHL winning percentage (.588) after giving up a contest’s first goal. They’re 33-3-2 when leading after two periods, but they also have the highest winning percentage (.346) when trailing after two periods.
Through 78 games, no team has had won more one-goal games than the Rangers (22), and no team has had a better winning percentage in those games than their 22-4-4 record.
Chayka noted that the Rangers have some shared DNA in that regard with last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Boston Bruins, who led the NHL in winning percentage in one-goal games and when trailing first.
“Their playoff fate might indicate something for the Rangers,” she said, ominously, referencing the Bruins’ shocking first-round loss last year.
The Rangers also have feasted on the Metro Division this season.
“Team goal differentials and the standings tend to have a fairly strong correlation, but that relationship is a lot weaker this year in the Metro,” McCurdy said of the Rangers. “On top of that, they have potentially overperformed their in-division goal differential. They have about a 0.78 in-division point percentage compared to 0.67 outside the division, despite outscoring their divisional opponents by a less significant margin.”
Obviously, some things have broken right for New York to be challenging for the Presidents’ Trophy. But the sum total of the Rangers’ performance wouldn’t dramatically change if their luck did, according to Kelly.
“If you ran this season back again, all things being equal, there’s a good chance the Rangers wouldn’t have quite as good a record, but I don’t believe they would be that far off,” he said. “There are a few other playoff teams that are equal if not greater examples of likely overperforming in terms of process versus results this season.”
Fraser trusts the process. He believes the Rangers are better than what the public analytics models like expected goals are presenting, noting that tracking data reveals them to be the best team at passes across the slot and in the top five for preventing them, for example.
Fraser said there’s about a three-point difference between public and private models for the Rangers’ projected points based on expected goal differential.
“What gets them to the 115 points they’re projected for now is a combination of finishing and goaltending, which has been consistent throughout the season,” Fraser said. “Igor Shesterkin has been fine. But most notably, they’ve gotten excellent performance from a backup for the first time in years.”
What impresses you the most about the Rangers, and what leaves you most confused about them?
The most common theme in the responses: While the Rangers don’t excel at everything, they’re also not terrible at anything.
“They’ve got a lot of pathways to winning games,” McCurdy said. “That will make them hard to play against in the playoffs, where you’d prefer to say, ‘Well, their main strength is X and our plan for that is Y.’ There are too many strengths, and the weaknesses don’t really stick out.”
The worst that could be said about some of the Rangers’ 5-on-5 metrics is that they’re ordinary or slightly below average. But this isn’t a team getting cratered by opponents every game then relying on Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick to drag them into a playoff seed.
Kelly believes the goaltending just needs to be is sufficient for the Rangers to thrive.
“They are virtually unbeatable when they get adequate goaltending, which, since the All-Star break, is far more often than not,” he said. “The Rangers lead the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes since Shesterkin’s reset at the break. They give up more chances than some other elite teams, but their combination of scoring ability — though top-heavy — and goaltending makes them a real threat.”
Kelly noted that in the first 41 games in which the Rangers’ goalies posted a positive goals saved above expected, they won 39 of them, the best winning percentage in the NHL in that category. They won 95% of those games, with no other team finishing north of 90% in that span.
That’s the goal-prevention story. The goal-scoring story is equally as compelling.
McCurdy noted that the Rangers roster “is good at turning chances into goals, considerably better than league average.”
There’s no better example of this than Panarin, whose 46 goals in 78 games shattered his previous career high. He is fifth in the NHL in goals versus expected goals (12.44), with a 16.1% shooting rate.
His dominance has helped make the Rangers’ top line with Alexis Lafreniere and Vincent Trocheck a “superb” trio, according to Fraser.
“It’s unbelievable how often they manage to get the goalie moving by passing the puck; according to AllThreeZones, all three of them are in the top 15 in high-danger passes leading to a shot,” he said. “What’s most surprising is that Laf and Trocheck have struggled to score goals relative to the quality of their opportunities. So, the question becomes: Will their postseason opponents force them to play a more grinding style or will they start to capitalize even more?”
There’s another key group that has Fraser a little more concerned: The defensive pairing of Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren, long one of the NHL’s most effective duos.
“What happened to them? The on-ice goal numbers are terrific, as usual, but that team is uncharacteristically getting out-chanced by a huge margin,” he said. “Can Lindgren get back on track?”
Fox and Lindgren had an expected goals per 60 minutes of 2.37 last season, but it has ballooned to 2.83 this season.
Kelly was a little concerned about the Rangers being a top-heavy team. Their top six scorers are all over 50 points on the season; no one else has had more than 30 points through 78 games.
“Can they get some offense from their bottom six? The Wennberg line has been on the right side of things but pretty low-event in its minutes,” Kelly said.
McCurdy was confounded by why the Rangers aren’t even better than they are.
“How [can] their 5-on-5 results manage to be as average as they are, considering the talent necessary to succeed at special teams,” he said. “I guess special teams really do deserve the name.”
Which all leads back to the biggest question about the Rangers.
“Are they for real?” Kelly asked. “I think that’s what we’re all trying to figure out here. As mentioned, they are probably not quite what their record shows. But every time I think I have a handle on them, they surprise me.”
How legitimate are the Rangers as a Stanley Cup contender?
Being the best isn’t always the best thing in the NHL. The Presidents’ Trophy has been awarded to the team with the league’s best record since 1985-86. That team has gone on to win the Stanley Cup only eight times — including the 1993-94 Rangers.
New York has the fifth-best odds at ESPN BET to win the championship. Stathletes gives the Blueshirts a 4.8% chance of winning the Cup, which is 11th-best among current playoff teams.
Kelly said the Rangers would be in his second tier as a Stanley Cup contender.
“I don’t think they have fatal flaws, but it is a slippery slope when you rely so heavily on special teams and goaltending,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean you can’t get to a Cup Final or even win the Cup.”
Kelly noted that the Florida Panthers made the Stanley Cup Final last season with an expected goals rate of under 50% at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, an average power play and a lackluster penalty kill. The Tampa Bay Lightning rode dominant special teams and Andrei Vasilevskiy to lift the Cup in 2021.
“In the small sample size that are the Stanley Cup playoffs, elite shooting talent or luck, coupled with strong goaltending, can be enough to win it all,” Kelly noted. “The Rangers are capable of both.”
Hohl noted, using McCurdy’s research, the Rangers are good but that the areas in which the team excels are relatively “less important” when it comes to winning the Cup.
He added that 5-on-5 offense and goaltending are the two most important indicators for a Cup champion, “and they only got two of those going for them.” The next important gauges are 5-on-5 defense and the power play, he said, “and again, they only have one of those two going for them.” Being great on the penalty kills hasn’t been a dependable predictor of NHL champions.
That said, McCurdy feels the Rangers are “as good a bet as any other teams” to win the Cup.
“They’re hardly paper tigers,” he said. “Against general opposition, they have so many strong aspects to their game that they will have a good chance no matter who they play.”
Well, except for one team.
“They’ll match up poorly against a team like Carolina, who will be able to control 5-on-5 play against them almost entirely,” McCurdy said. “[The Canes] might be able to dictate a style of play that will keep the games at 5-on-5 most of the time.”
Chayka also noted that a second-round meeting with the Hurricanes could present a significant block in the road to the Stanley Cup for New York, as Carolina is the top team in the East, according to Stathletes’ Power Score.
Guentzel, the Hurricanes’ trade deadline coup, has eight goals in seven games against the Rangers in his postseason career.
There will be challenges for the Rangers in the playoffs. Plenty of them. But they’ve already shown to be better than expected. It is anyone’s Stanley Cup to lift. Why not bring it back to Broadway?
“This season is so wide open that I don’t have trouble imagining them getting hot at the right time,” Fraser concluded.
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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