Inside the meetings that officially moved the A’s out of Oakland
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Tim Keown, ESPN Senior Writer
THIS WAS John Fisher’s moment. It was a cold and rainy morning at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, with the microphone glitching whenever Kings owner Vivek Ranadive tried to heap praise upon the Oakland Athletics owner, but this was the place — the single, solitary place in the entire known universe — where people gathered to willingly extol the virtues of Fisher.
They cheered lustily, and perhaps naively, for this singularly uncharismatic billionaire. He owns something they believe they want and now — temporarily — have. The moment was the announcement that his historically bad baseball team, a team he systematically dismantled and stripped for parts to maximize profits, will play in a minor league ballpark in their neighborhood starting next season. For how long? Two years, three — whatever works. For how much? Well, for nothing, as it turns out.
On this morning, the first Thursday of April, none of it mattered. They cheered because they are employed by him, or might be soon, or by an entity that might profit from what this man owns. They stood and cheered because they gave this man whatever he wanted, despite knowing people in Oakland will lose their jobs and fans in Oakland will lose their team. They stood and cheered despite the piles upon piles of evidence that any affiliation with this man and his baseball franchise is likely to end in frustration and anger.
Ranadive, the dealmaker and owner of the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats, talked about the vision of his “great friend.” The mayor of West Sacramento, Martha Guerrero, addressed Fisher directly: “John, it’s hard work running a team.” Barry Broome, the president and CEO of the Greater Sacramento Economic Council (GSEC), touted Sacramento’s civic bona fides and suggested when the time comes for Major League Baseball to consider expansion, they just might have a champion for their city working on the inside. Later, drunk on the zeal of the moment, Broome said, “I think the Fishers are thrilled with the reception they’re getting today.”
He had to take it on faith. The man himself spoke for roughly 140 seconds. He stumbled through the perfunctories before waving his arm behind him, toward the minor league ballpark and each of its 10,000 seats, and ruminated on how exciting it will be to watch “Athletics players or Aaron Judge” hit homers in “the most intimate ballpark in the big leagues.”
His unwillingness, or inability, to name one of his own players is perhaps understandable. This is a man who, for the past year, has created such a toxic environment in Oakland that he can’t attend even a single one of his team’s games. That most basic act of attentiveness — sitting in the stands — is something he can’t do, despite his operatives continually criticizing Oakland’s fans for the same offense. It is perhaps the most joyless aspect of a joyless enterprise.
But here he was, about a week after thousands of fans in Oakland paid for parking in order to remain outside the stadium on Opening Day and yell at him to sell the team. He will bask in the glory of two or three rent-free seasons in Sacramento before he packs up for Las Vegas. It’s the never-ending formula, one Fisher plays clumsily but somehow successfully: There’s always a city overeager for big league recognition, willing to prostrate itself for the opportunity to stare into the void and believe it’s the sun.
John Fisher: hero.
Who would have thought?
And when the brief ceremony was over, and the wind and the rain swept sideways under the concourse down the left-field line, the hero was gone. Vanished. He shook no hands and took no questions. He walked right past the catered croissants and jugs of coffee and disappeared into the gloom of the late morning, the first to leave his own party.
THE VIEWS FROM the waterfront offices of the A’s in Oakland’s Jack London Square are magnificent: ferries coming in and out, light shimmering off the Bay, San Francisco’s skyline nearly close enough to reach out and touch (the site of the team’s abandoned Howard Terminal project is just a slight lean to the north). In a conference room situated to maximize the view, representatives from the team and the city of Oakland met at 8:30 a.m. on April 2, precisely 49½ hours before the festivities in West Sacramento, to discuss a lease extension at the Oakland Coliseum and settle, once and for all, the team’s fate in the city.
It was an upset of sorts that meetings with Oakland happened in the first place. After the A’s pulled out of a $12 billion project to build a ballpark at Howard Terminal — an undoable ballpark/retail/office deal the city was inching closer and closer to doing — last April, the mayor’s office sat back and waited to see if the team was interested in extending its lease. Spurned and exhausted by what it perceived as the disingenuousness of the A’s negotiating stance, the city was in no mood to make the first overture.
By early February, with no movement from the A’s, the city’s representatives assumed the team had found somewhere else to play. The MLB scheduling deadline for 2025 loomed, and commissioner Rob Manfred had decreed only that the A’s would play “somewhere in the West.” A’s president Dave Kaval floated possibilities with varying levels of feasibility: Oakland, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, the A’s Triple-A stadium in Las Vegas, Oracle Park in San Francisco.
The city went forward with leases for the Oakland Roots and Soul, the men’s and women’s professional soccer teams in the United Soccer League. And then, in mid-February, the team reached out to Oakland, in a move that echoed the clumsy “parallel paths” approach Kaval announced when the team pitted Las Vegas against Oakland.
“Approaching us halfway through February indicated to us it wasn’t super serious,” Oakland chief of staff Leigh Hanson said. “A normal negotiation would have started two months after they pulled out last April. So much trust had deteriorated, but we thought we’d give them the benefit of the doubt and realize their organization was going through a lot of transition. We felt it was our responsibility to the fans and the city to go forward and try to make it work on our terms.”
By April 2, the city was on its fourth meeting with the A’s, though little progress had been made. In this one, as was the case in each of the previous three, Kaval sat at the head of the table. Hanson sat to his left, directly across from A’s chief of staff Miguel Duarte. Oakland councilmember Rebecca Kaplan sat to Hanson’s left, with Alameda County supervisor David Haubert and Oakland policy chief Zach Goldman across from her.
Kaval spoke first, as had become his custom, and expressed surprise that the city’s lease terms had been reported by ESPN two days before the meeting. Those terms, as outlined on sheets passed around the room on this morning, included a five-year lease with a team opt-out after three, a $97 million “extension fee” and an agreement for the A’s to pay for the field conversion when the Roots and Soul begin playing in the Coliseum next year. The city also wanted the A’s to help secure assurances from MLB that the city would receive a one-year window to solicit ownership groups for a future expansion franchise.
Taken collectively, it was a big ask. Broken down individually, the extension fee was clearly the biggest obstacle for the team. With the A’s, money always is. Kaval said $97 million, payable whether the team stayed for five years or opted out at three, was a nonstarter and wondered how the city had come up with that number. He was told that Mayor Sheng Thao’s team had done its research, and the number factored in the cost the team would incur by relocating twice in the next three to five years, the $67 million annually the team receives from NBC Sports for its television rights for being in the Bay Area — a figure, the city says, that includes just $10 million in ad revenue, meaning NBC Sports subsidizes to the tune of $57 million per year — and the sweetheart $1.5 million rent the team currently pays at the Coliseum.
“This is above market rate,” Kaval said, and Hanson agreed. “It is,” she said, “and your deal now is criminally below market.” The city receives no parking revenue from the Coliseum, no cut of the food and beverage sales, only a small share of ticket revenue. The extension fee, Hanson emphasized, was not to be misconstrued as rent; it was simply the cost of staying in Oakland. “The goal,” she said, “is not to make this the cheapest deal possible. The goal is to make this work for the city.”
“Well,” Kaval said. “This isn’t going to work for us.”
Hanson said she shrugged. “It’s your responsibility to decide where you’re going to play baseball,” she said. “We pick up trash and we do cops and we care about economic development, but it’s not our responsibility to house you.”
This was perhaps the clearest sign yet that Oakland’s patience had worn paper-thin, and that the team would have to agree to city-friendly terms or find another place to play. Although the current administration had been in office just 15 months, the cumulative weight of the past 20 years of uncertainty fell on its shoulders. The benefits of staying in Oakland were self-evident: no relocation costs, no need to uproot employees, that television contract available only in the nation’s 10th-largest media market as ranked by Nielsen. And despite its many faults, some of them self-inflicted by the A’s, the Coliseum remains a big league stadium.
Though the city didn’t present financial terms until the fourth meeting, the basic parameters — a five-year lease with the team opt-out — were on the table. Sources say the A’s, however, never laid out an offer sheet, never presented so much as a single piece of paper with demands or suggestions. At one point during the second meeting, in March, Kaval suggested the A’s might be willing to accept “the Raiders’ deal” — two years and $17 million, the arrangement Raiders owner Mark Davis struck for the two lame-duck years in Oakland before he moved his team to Las Vegas.
“First of all,” Hanson said. “Please don’t call it the ‘Raiders’ deal’ — that brings back bad memories for everyone in this town. And second, that’s not going to work.”
The “Raiders’ deal” was the only negotiation tactic Kaval employed, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. There was still some vigorous back and forth, though. Kaval took exception to the city’s offer of a five-year lease, since the team believes its future Vegas ballpark — start date unclear, financing undetermined — on the 9-acre site of the yet-to-be demolished Tropicana Casino and Resort will be ready for the 2028 season, maybe even a year earlier.
Hanson said the city had worked its own numbers there, too, and those numbers indicated the A’s will need five years, minimum, before the Vegas stadium is completed. Left unspoken, sources say, is that significant doubt remains whether the deal in Vegas will happen at all, and the five-year gambit was a hedge against ever having to negotiate with the A’s again.
By the final meeting, Sacramento was already thick in the air. Kaval had made it known the team was in daily conversations with Ranadive and Sacramento, weekly discussions with Salt Lake City. There were those on the Oakland side of the table who believed Sacramento was a done deal before this meeting began — and they weren’t the only ones. Broome, the GSEC CEO, was in the room during the negotiations with Ranadive, and he told ESPN he knew Sacramento was getting the A’s 10 days before the official announcement.
But after that fourth and final meeting with the A’s, and after Kaval’s visceral objection to the $97 million extension fee, the mayor’s staff left the A’s offices at 9:30 and reconvened at City Hall to review the details. The discussions continued throughout the day, and by early evening Hanson got Thao’s approval to present a revised offer: a three-year lease with a $60 million extension fee.
At 7:15 that night, Hanson called Kaval with the new offer. She said he seemed interested — although he would later say the two sides remained “far apart” even with the revision — and he thanked her for the call. Within 24 hours, rumblings that Sacramento was the choice filtered out through the Twitter feed of “Carmichael Dave,” a Sacramento radio personality well-connected to Ranadive and the Kings. The next morning, Kaval called Hanson at 7:36 a.m. to give her the news. Fisher followed, five minutes later, with a call to Thao. By 10 a.m., at about the same time the A’s were on a flight heading for Detroit, Ranadive was standing at the podium, wind whipping his hair, thanking his good friend.
Afterward, Kaval said the decision to choose Sacramento over Oakland was based partly on the abbreviated time frame and partly on factors out of the A’s control, such as the expansion team assurances Oakland sought from MLB. The team had to act quickly, he said, to ensure the league office could put together a 2025 schedule with something other than “TBD” next to the team’s name. In effect, the A’s created an untenable timeline for Oakland, and then used it against them.
At the end of the workday in Oakland, Hanson gathered the mayor’s staff and headed across the street to Fluid 510, their favorite bar, to toast the end — the end of the negotiations and the parallel paths and the false hope and the reading between the lines. They weren’t celebrating the A’s imminent departure so much as the conclusion of a seemingly endless, and endlessly frustrating, back and forth with a team they never felt they could trust.
FISHER CONTINUES TO fail forward: free rent in Sacramento, $380 million in public money in Las Vegas, no accountability in Oakland. He received unanimous approval from the other 29 owners to move to Vegas. MLB, at the behest of Manfred, waived the team’s relocation fee because — according to a league source — it would be too burdensome for Fisher to pay. “So if we say there’s a relocation fee of $2 billion,” the source said. “Realistically, how are we going to get that?”
It’s difficult to see the value Fisher brings to the other 29 teams. He seems to have benefited from a billionaire’s version of the comfort of low expectations. His front office has fielded playoff teams — cheap, brilliantly constructed playoff teams — but those days are so distant they belong to a different era. His team’s payroll is last in the league, but that doesn’t come close to placing it in the proper context. The A’s 2024 payroll of $60 million is 41% lower than the 29th-ranked team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, in a league where even the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers field teams with payrolls of more than $100 million. Since Fisher assumed sole ownership of the team in 2016, the team has had the lowest payroll in baseball three times and has never ranked higher than 24th.
The condemnation of Fisher has been widespread. Former Athletics pitcher and current Mets broadcaster Ron Darling said, on air, that he is “appalled” by Fisher’s behavior over the past six months. Broadcasters from the Tigers and the Angels — team employees — have publicly condemned the abandonment of Oakland. Retired pitcher Trevor May, who played for the A’s as recently as last season, appeared on the “Foul Territory” podcast and said, “Losing fans is one thing, but treating them this way sends a message to all fans.”
There could be other options. Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob said he has a standing offer to purchase the A’s and build a new ballpark on the Coliseum site, the same offer he made when then-commissioner Bud Selig approved the sale of the team to his old fraternity buddy Lew Wolff — and Fisher — in 2005. “And what team does Lacob own?” the league source asked rhetorically, since the answer is a team that left Oakland for San Francisco.
Meanwhile Kaval, ever the optimist, has touted the idea that Vegas will cure all ills, that the A’s will abandon their Moneyball ways and spend like gamblers on tilt when the Vegas money rolls in. Even if that is true — and history provides no indication that it will be — the A’s face three seasons of further belt-tightening before then. In an all-hands Zoom meeting before the official Sacramento announcement, Kaval informed Oakland staff that there would be significant layoffs at the end of the season. Much of the work done by specific departments — marketing, ticket sales, public relations — will be done by employees of the Kings and River Cats.
The city, which has taken so much of the blame, now will find its citizens jobless. And while the A’s have sought a new home for the past 20 years, only the past eight have been centered on Oakland. Of those eight, two were spent on a doomed-before-it-started downtown site at Laney Community College, and two of the Howard Terminal years were slowed by a pandemic. Even then, the city was within $97 million — the original extension fee was a history-rhymes clapback — of providing Fisher with everything he sought for his $12 billion Howard Terminal mini-city.
None of that mattered within the owners’ fraternity, where patience eroded and Oakland, an easy target of scorn, became nothing more than a problem to be solved. “After 15 years of this, owners are on Rob,” the league source said. “They want to know, ‘What’s happening in Oakland? Let’s go, it’s time to s— or get off the pot.'”
IN WEST SACRAMENTO, there are logistical questions that remain outstanding. The physics of the Triple-A River Cats, a Giants affiliate, and the big league A’s sharing a ballpark have yet to be determined. Significant improvements to Sutter Health Park are necessary to comply with the collective bargaining agreement and receive the approval of the Major League Players Association. Lights will need to be upgraded, bullpens revamped and a second batting cage constructed. The home clubhouse is currently beyond the left-field wall, an arrangement that seems less than optimal.
As the rain fell and the wind blew last Thursday, though, unchecked exuberance ruled the day. Broome said, “The only thing I asked of the Fishers is when they win the World Series in the next three years, they put that parade right in the middle of our town.”
He is speaking about the A’s, a husk of a team. Winning isn’t even a talking point, let alone a goal. Just a few years ago, the front office assembled a vibrant, young core — Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy — that could have contended for years if contending mattered. What remains is bound together by baling wire and twine and revenue sharing.
Broome is undeterred. “All we need is a 19-year-old kid named Vida Blue, a 20-year-old guy named Reggie Jackson,” he said. “We just need three, four, five guys. We need to look in the Dominican Republic for a shortstop, for Omar Vizquel.” (Vizquel is Venezuelan.)
In Sacramento, it all feels fresh and new, the possibilities endless. Ranadive, the man who saved the Kings from a future in Seattle in 2013, stood in front of the smiling crowd and said Sacramento is in “pole position” for a future expansion team. He said it will no longer play “second fiddle” to anyone, even though second fiddle is precisely what they will be if Fisher succeeds in his plan to squat for two or three years before moving to Las Vegas. The A’s aren’t even putting “Sacramento” in their name, opting for the location-free “A’s” or “Athletics,” as if attaching themselves to Sacramento might imply something permanent, or real.
What’s in it for Ranadive? An MLB source insisted Ranadive and Sacramento were promised nothing more than a temporary visit from the A’s. “We don’t even have an expansion process in place,” the source said. “The owners have to vote to explore expansion first, and then put a committee together. There are no guarantees.”
Sources close to the negotiations in both Oakland and Sacramento believe Ranadive is making a calculation that Las Vegas is never going to happen. “Vivek is definitely bright,” one source who requested anonymity said. “He made an assessment: Vegas will eventually fall apart and wherever the team is at that moment is where it will stay. He’s not the only one who believes that.”
Wherever the A’s play in 2028, the team appears eager in 2024 to make amends with a fan base it has pushed away in recent years. After walking away from Oakland and choosing nine acres in a Vegas parking lot, the A’s seem to believe fans will embrace the nostalgia of the past 56 years and bid a fond farewell.
“We think there are a lot of people who are excited to come out and see a final game at the Coliseum,” Kaval said. “I’m hopeful that can be a positive experience, and we’re going to do everything within our control to make it positive. New memories can be made, and we have a whole season to do that.”
Kaval is standing a few feet from the podium at Sutter Health Park, far enough under the overhang to be free of the rain. He is talking fast, his eyes big, the words a torrent of spin and hope and his own unique brand of untethered optimism. He is speaking for a fan base that, rightly or wrongly, loathes both him and Fisher, to the point where it stays away from the ballpark or attends games just to protest their very existence. And now he is standing in the concourse of the team’s temporary future home, a nice minor league ballpark near the Sacramento River with views of the Tower Bridge and the city beyond, a 15-minute walk from the Kings’ state-of-the-art arena, ready to cleanse the past.
“I know people are receptive,” Kaval said. “I think it can be done.”
There will be promotions. Cheap seats. Alumni events. Nods to past glory. Family fun. Seventy-four home games remain on the schedule. Come on out, Kaval says, and help the A’s send the old gray lady off with a bang. “It’s baseball,” he says, eyes widening, “and baseball is all about having fun.”
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David Hale
Amid a year in which chaos has been a near constant, preseason expectations have been turned on their heads and James Franklin has gone from No. 2 in the country at Penn State to splitting the dock fees on a pontoon boat with Bud Foster at Virginia Tech inside of six weeks, we had every right to expect Week 13 might deliver some twists and turns we didn’t see coming.
Instead, what we got Saturday was the status quo.
We might’ve hoped Missouri, with Beau Pribula back at quarterback, might’ve upended Oklahoma‘s playoff dreams.
We might’ve believed USC could deliver a dagger to an Oregon team that had largely gone unchallenged all season.
We might’ve dreamed that the Notre Dame–Miami debate could’ve been settled by an upset from Syracuse or the Hokies.
With less than 3 minutes to play in Salt Lake City, we might’ve at least expected to see one upset of Kansas State over Utah, one small fracture in the committee’s playoff rankings, one small shift in the big picture.
Heck, the least we could’ve asked for was a decision on Lane Kiffin’s future, and even that was punted for a week so that the Ole Miss coach can make his announcement at the Egg Bowl by feigning peeing like a dog on the hat of whichever team he plans to coach next year.
None of it happened.
Oklahoma’s defense smothered another SEC opponent, picking off Pribula twice and holding Ahmad Hardy to just 57 yards on the ground in a 17-6 win. The Sooners’ offense may be less than inspiring, but Brent Venables has put together a defense that rivals anything he mustered during his storied career at Clemson, a unit whose impact on the SEC is rivaled only by Jimmy Sexton.
Oregon’s strength entering Saturday appeared to be its dominant defense, too, but instead it was Kenyon Sadiq and Noah Whittington stealing the show on offense and Malik Benson breaking USC on special teams with an 85-yard punt return for a score. On the heels of Oklahoma’s win, seeing Lincoln Riley suffer such a dismal outcome, too, was almost too much beauty for Sooners fans to stand.
In any other year, Saturday’s road trip to Virginia Tech would’ve served as the perfect opportunity for Miami to slip on a banana peel and slide its way into the Sun Bowl, but not this time. Carson Beck threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns. Malachi Toney had 12 catches. The defense racked up five sacks. Miami won 34-17. The win was good enough that, for just a few moments, allowed the Canes to climb into the same tier as Notre Dame for the committee to compare the two teams directly — just in time for Notre Dame to win 70-7 and remind everyone that the Irish are actually way better. The committee immediately put Miami back into the “evaluate after we gorge ourselves on room service chicken fingers and need a nap” section of the playoff discussions.
BYU had no trouble dispatching Cincinnati, the SEC’s powers dominated lower-level opposition and Ohio State sent a sternly worded letter to the conference asking that the Buckeyes not have to get out of bed before 2 p.m. for the likes of Rutgers in the future. It was all easy.
If any of the top playoff contenders offered real drama, it was Utah. Kansas State’s run game was relentless, chalking up 472 yards and five scores. The two teams traded scores early with five lead changes and three ties through three quarters of action. But a Utah fumble midway through the fourth set up a K State score and a 47-37 Wildcats lead with 7 minutes to go. But the Utes refused to roll over, scoring twice in the final 2:47, and pulling away with a 51-47 win.
The come-from-behind victory could be more than just a necessary step in protecting Utah’s playoff hopes. Utah fans wondered if perhaps Saturday would be Kyle Whittingham’s final game at Rice-Eccles Stadium, knowing his exit as the Utes head coach was always destined to be a low-key affair, something akin to the end of “Good Will Hunting,” with Morgan Scalley knocking on Whittingham’s door one morning to find he’s no longer there and only a note explaining the departure: “I have to go see about a … used Ford F-350.”
And yet, for all the chaos avoided in Week 13, one final Saturday remains before any of our playoff calculus should be written in ink.
Oklahoma is well-positioned, but a date with LSU looms. The Tigers have fired a coach, stumbled from the rankings, taken out a second mortgage on Death Valley to try to lure Kiffin to Baton Rouge. Could LSU deliver one more dose of drama in 2025?
Oregon appeared to punch its playoff ticket with Saturday’s win over USC, and yet a trip to Washington still looms. This is not the 2023 Huskies, but a trip to Seattle is still hardly an easy win. It’s only fitting that the remnants of the Pac-12 can still offer some late-season drama, as if Larry Scott is still looking to cost the conference money, even from his new post as, we’re guessing, somewhere in the New York Jets front office.
Miami’s playoff hopes might come down to the whims of the committee or, just as likely, the fourth-quarter clock management of Mario Cristobal. The Canes have a date with Pitt in Week 14, and if you flip to page 306 of this year’s Farmer’s Almanac, you’ll see that a late-season loss to the Panthers after blowing a 14-point lead has been the likeliest outcome for the Hurricanes the whole time.
Utah and BYU, too, have playoff life even if they’re long shots.
No, Saturday didn’t upset the status quo, but the question as we head toward the finish line is whether Week 13’s action was a chance for the biggest winners to load the fireworks before the inevitable celebration or if they were simply getting all the deck chairs precisely situated before hitting the iceberg.
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Under the radar | Vibesman five
Week 13 vibe check
Each week, college football’s top teams battle to shape the course of the season. But beyond the headliners, dozens of smaller matchups prove to be just as consequential. We track those here.
Trending down: ACC certainty
Georgia Tech entered Saturday as the only ACC team with any real clarity: Win and the Yellow Jackets would clinch a spot in the conference title game.
Of course, nothing in the ACC is that simple.
Pitt jumped to a 28-0 lead, thwarted one Georgia Tech comeback with a 100-yard interception return for a score and then ended the Jackets’ hopes with a 56-yard Ja’Kyrian Turner touchdown run with 2:41 to go to seal a 42-28 win.
The ACC now has three teams tied atop the standings at 6-1 — Virginia, Pitt and SMU — followed by Georgia Tech at 6-2 and Miami and Duke at 5-2. It sets up the possibility of a six-way tie at 6-2 with the conference championship then being decided by a series of tie breakers that almost certainly will involve Pat Narduzzi losing a rock, paper, scissors match because he assumed rock was invincible and Cristobal edging out Tony Elliott in a staring contest by wearing a pair of fake glasses with a funny nose and mustache attached.
Trending down: Florida‘s optimism
Tennessee throttled the Gators 31-11 on Saturday, holding Florida to just 261 yards of offense and effectively setting the cruise control for the second half while Josh Heupel rewatched the first four seasons of “Stranger Things” to get prepped for new episodes.
Worse yet, as Florida floundered its way through another loss, AD Scott Stricklin looked up into the stands, where Lane Kiffin stood solemnly, his arm outstretched, offering a long pause to build the drama before offering a thumbs down. Florida will now turn to its next best option to coach the team in 2026: three toddlers wearing a trench coat and pretending to be a grown man.
Trending up: Style points
With just two games left against struggling ACC teams and a crowd of two-loss teams pushing for the final few playoff spots, Notre Dame knew Saturday’s contest against Syracuse would be about more than just winning. This one needed to look good.
So, by halftime, Jeremiyah Love was holding the charred corpse of Otto the Orange above his head and yelling, “Are you not entertained?”
The Irish led 49-0 at the half, picked off Syracuse QB Joseph Filardi three times and Love ran for 171 yards and three touchdowns in a 70-7 win.
Afterward, Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said he was disappointed the defensive game plan of recording enough sacks that the Orange circumnavigated the globe in reverse, thus finishing with negative points, didn’t come to fruition, but was encouraged by news that Stanford had increased the life insurance on its tree mascot before next week’s season finale.
Trending up: Suffering for the Seminoles
It was Friedrich Nietzsche who posited that all life was suffering, and though he came up with that idea a full 81 years before Mike Norvell was born, it’s safe to say Florida State‘s past two years are pretty much what he had in mind.
To recap: FSU’s Heisman candidate QB got hurt in a meaningless game against an FCS foe in November 2023. As a result, the Noles were snubbed from the College Football Playoff despite a 13-0 record. Norvell was a top candidate for the vacant Alabama job but instead returned to FSU with a huge new contract. The Noles limped into the next season, astonishingly went 2-10, overhauled the coaching staff, beat Alabama to open this season, lost four in a row, including one to Stanford, rebounded and then, on Friday, offered perhaps the single greatest example of the incredibly thin line between comedy and tragedy as the world has ever seen in the final four minutes of a 21-11 loss to NC State.
Only teams to have out-gained their opponents by 40 yards or more in all or all but one game this year:
No. 2 Indiana
No. 5 Texas Tech
No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 7 Oregon
Florida State (5-6)— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 22, 2025
The Noles D stuffed the Wolfpack on fourth down with 3:53 to play. NC State punted. The punt bounced off an FSU player’s helmet, rebounded backward and landed in the arms of the Pack’s punter near the original line of scrimmage.
The Noles D held again, forced another punt and this time FSU’s Squirrel White fumbled the catch, giving the ball to NC State again.
The Noles D held yet again, but NC State opted to go for it on fourth-and-6 and found the end zone from 12 yards out.
FSU still had a chance but shanked a short field goal — its second of the game — and, by the end, all that was missing was the PA system at Carter Finley Stadium playing “Yakety Sax” on repeat and Novell being knocked unconscious after trying to exit the field through a tunnel a roadrunner had painted on a brick wall.
Of course, Neitzche also argued, in his “four great errors” that all free will was an illusion, so it’s fair to say this isn’t Norvell’s fault but rather the inevitable result of a chaotic universe. On the other hand, another of his “four errors” was “Don’t sign DJ Uiagalelei and Tommy Castellanos in back-to-back seasons,” so perhaps there’s ample blame to go around.
Trending up: Heavy trophies
Justin Lamson threw for 175 yards, ran for 80 and accounted for two touchdowns as No. 3 Montana State knocked off archrival and second-ranked Montana 31-28 to capture the Big Sky championship and win the Great Divide Trophy.
Montana scored on a 52-yard run with 6:59 to play, pulling to within three, but the Grizzlies never saw the ball again. Montana State engineered a 14-play, 72-yard drive, converting a fourth-and-1 and a third-and-4 along the way, to bleed the last 7 minutes off the clock and secure the win.
The Bobcats have now won the Brawl of the Wild in seven of the past nine matchups, which means prime bragging rights for Montana State fans over that family of bears who live down the block.
Trending down: SEC strength of schedules
It’s Week 13, which means it’s time for half the SEC to welcome in its regular host of hapless cannon fodder: The Little Sisters of the Poor, the Washington Generals, an adult flag football rec league team and, of course, Florida.
It’s tradition in the SEC to prep for rivalry week with one game after another against vastly overmatched foes, so on Saturday we saw Georgia demolish Charlotte, Texas A&M stomp Samford and Alabama trounce Eastern Illinois. Even Auburn got in on the action, walloping Mercer 62-17 in a game that even Hugh Freeze probably could’ve won.
This is all necessary because, as everyone knows, life in the SEC is a grind, with every other game of the season a brutal, physical affair that slowly chops away at the league’s best squads like a thousand paper cuts.
And sure, Gunner Stockton and Ty Simpson combined to throw three picks and zero touchdowns in their wins. It’s only reasonable given that they played half the game holding a tall glass of iced tea and listening to a podcast about woodworking. The important thing is, when it was all over, they had fully recovered from the season’s long, arduous journey through the SEC and emerged with a spring in their step, a pat on the back and a note from the playoff selection committee that read: “We loved your game control. XOXO.”
Trending up: Sun Devils’ resurgence
Kenny Dillingham turned Jordan Travis into a Heisman contender, salvaged Bo Nix’s career and made Sam Leavitt a star. But that was nothing compared to his latest trick: Jeff Sims is a good QB right now.
Sims threw for 206 yards and two touchdowns as Arizona State demolished Colorado 42-17.
The Sun Devils are 3-1 with Sims as the starter, matching the most wins Georgia Tech managed in any of three seasons with Sims at the helm.
The real star of the show, however, was Arizona State tailback Raleek Brown, who carried 22 times for 255 yards and, after the game, Deion Sanders reluctantly decided Brown’s jersey should be retired at Colorado, too.
Trending up: Andrew Luck’s cavalry
Dearest mother —
I bring good tidings from the battlefield. We have vanquished the hated enemy from Berkeley. Though our front lines sustained many casualties, our defensive battalions proved strong. Our men charged from the rear, thrice apprehending the enemy’s payload and delivering it to safe harbor. In addition, a young soldier called Micah Ford proved his valor, marching 150 yards into enemy territory. His bravery shall be rewarded with an officer’s commission at war’s end. Now, I must bid you farewell. While we celebrate this victory with much revelry and ale, my heart remains heavy with the awareness that an even greater enemy — men from across the sea in that emerald isle of St. Patrick — await. We must be prepared for an even greater battle to come.
Please, give my love to father and the children.
Sincerely,
Andrew Luck, captain, Stanford infantry
Trending up: ‘Seinfeld’ references
Washington didn’t gain statehood until 53 years after James Madison died, but that didn’t stop Washington State from trying to end James Madison‘s quest for the playoff Saturday.
The Cougars led 20-17 midway through the fourth quarter before Dukes’ tailback Wayne Knight took a handoff and ran like he was smuggling stolen dinosaur DNA off an island, scampering 58 yards for a go-ahead score.
0:40
Wayne Knight scores 58-yard rushing touchdown
Wayne Knight scores 58-yard rushing touchdown
Knight finished with 126 yards on 15 carries, all while besting Kramer in an hourslong game of Risk, delivering a critical 24-20 win for the Dukes, who move to 10-1 on the season and remain in prime position to swipe the automatic playoff bid from the Group of 5.
It is, of course, Knight’s greatest contribution to an important sporting event since he assisted Michael Jordan and Bugs Bunny in defeating a group of aliens in a game of pickup basketball in 1996.
Trending down: Ivy League dominance
Josh Pitsenberger ran for 143 yards and three scores, Dante Reno tossed three touchdowns and Yale upended Harvard 45-28 on Saturday to claim a share of the Ivy League championship.
When it was over, Yale’s fans stormed the field. Well, they didn’t so much storm it as have their concierge make a reservation and preordered the soufflé, which, of course, takes two hours to make, then had Jeeves bring the Mercedes around to properly escort them onto the field. The point is, they were excited.
0:35
Yale fans storm field after team clinches Ivy League FCS Playoff bid
Yale defeats Harvard 45-28 and fans celebrate the team getting the Ivy League’s first-ever automatic bid to the FCS playoffs.
It was a stunning defeat for Harvard, which had entered the game 9-0 and eager for some redemption after losing its past three to Yale. Afterward, the Crimson downplayed the loss by noting that a Harvard man would never be so crass as to run the ball 49 times. So much manual labor is fine for someone at Dartmouth or Brown.
Under-the-radar play of the week
The Victory Bell belongs with Duke, and Bill Belichick won’t be bowling in his first season in North Carolina after the Blue Devils escaped a trip to Chapel Hill with a 32-25 win.
While Duke controlled the first half, UNC stormed back with two long touchdown drives to take a 25-24 lead late in the fourth quarter. The Heels’ D then stuffed Duke on a third-down try, appearing to set up a field goal attempt for the lead. But Manny Diaz had a trick up his sleeve.
DUKE PULLS OFF THE FAKE FIELD GOAL 🤯 @DukeFOOTBALL pic.twitter.com/syr9FoOdue
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 22, 2025
Duke’s fake field goal caught UNC sleeping like a man in the fourth hour of watching his girlfriend’s adult cheerleading competition, and kicker Todd Pelino bolted 26 yards to the 1, setting up an easy touchdown that proved to be the difference.
Under-the-radar game of the week
With 1:07 to play and the score tied at 34, Kennesaw State‘s Amari Odom completed back-to-back passes — the first a 40-yard dagger down the middle of the field and the latter a 14-yard touchdown to go up 41-34.
0:27
Chase Belcher puts Kennesaw State ahead with 27 seconds left
Amari Odom finds Chase Belcher in the back of the end zone to put the Owls ahead late in the 4th.
That gave the ball back to Missouri State with just 27 seconds to play, but the Bears weren’t going down without a fight. Consecutive completions moved the ball to near midfield before Jacob Clark looked deep in search of the tying touchdown. Instead, Alexander Ford picked off the pass and sealed the win for the Owls.
Odom finished with 387 yards passing and five touchdowns, as the Owls moved to 8-3 on the season and 6-1 in Conference USA. With a win next week at Liberty, Kennesaw State will lock up a spot in the conference championship game after going 2-10 a year ago.
Vibesman five
This was not a fun week for the Heisman Trophy discussion. Georgia and Alabama played cupcakes. Indiana was off. Ohio State played Rutgers, which is somewhere between playing a cupcake and having off. So, rather than rehash last week’s list, let’s give flowers to the players who’ve been tons of fun this year without having much of a shot at the hardware.
1. Texas QB Arch Manning
Manning threw for 389 yards and accounted for five touchdowns, and as long as we ignore the first eight weeks of the season, he would have a real shot at the actual Heisman. Alas, the Heisman voters aren’t like the College Football Playoff committee. They can’t just choose to ignore certain outcomes they don’t like. And so, we’re forced to simply appreciate Manning’s greatness in the context of his slow start. In truth, it’s not his fault. He clearly got a sizable portion of his QB DNA from Uncle Eli, whose career was built upon playing mediocre ball until late in the season and then somehow winning two Super Bowls anyway.
2. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia
Pavia has a real shot at an invite to the Heisman ceremony, and even if he doesn’t win the actual award, he’s well-positioned for a lifetime achievement trophy of some sort after a dazzling 26-year career. And, if nothing else, Saturday’s 45-17 blowout of Kentucky in which Pavia threw for 484 yards and five touchdowns allowed us to witness Pavia’s best argument for winning the Heisman.
Wait for Pavia’s Heisman pose 🔥🏆 pic.twitter.com/F3RMrd81D9
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 22, 2025
3. North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker
Mestemaker wasn’t even the starting QB on his high school team, spending the entirety of his career at Vandegrift High (Texas) waiting for the starter to get hurt so he could come in, throw a Hail Mary to win the big game after the coach quits at halftime, then point to his dad and yell, “I don’t want … your life!” Instead, he walked on at UNT, started last year’s bowl game, and in 2025 blossomed into a star. On Saturday, he threw for 469 yards and accounted for four touchdowns in a 56-24 win over Rice, then calmly explained to his dad that, no, he’s not interested in following him into the insurance business, but he respects all his father’s life choices and appreciates all the sacrifices he has made for the family.
4. Louisiana governor Jeff Landry
Believe it or not, Brian Kelly wasn’t officially informed he was fired until this week, as the school deals with a lawsuit with the former coach over his contract buyout. How much of this is Landry’s fault? It’s hard to say, but his involvement has clearly complicated things, and it’s just so nice to finally see a coaching change result in utter chaos without somehow involving Phil Fulmer.
5. Hawai’i kicker Kansei Matsuzawa
Matsuzawa connected on a 45-yard field goal in Hawaii’s 38-10 loss to UNLV on Friday, making him a perfect 23-for-23 this season. It’s pretty impressive given that Matsuzawa taught himself to kick by watching videos on YouTube. All of this begs the question: Why can Matsuzawa learn to kick by using social media, but somehow every time Dabo Swinney types in “What is the transfer portal” on Bing, people laugh and say he’s out of touch?
Surprise — there were no surprises.
After a ho-hum Week 13 that featured only two games between two ranked opponents, there wasn’t any movement in this week’s top 12 projection, but there are two questions looming over the committee as it debates its fourth of six rankings to be revealed on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN):
Here’s a prediction of what the group might do in the latest ranking on Tuesday night:
Projecting the top 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Why they could be here: A dominant win against a now sub.-500 Rutgers team isn’t going to change the way the committee views Ohio State — as the most complete team in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wins against No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois (which lost to Wisconsin on Saturday) are its only ones against CFP top 25 opponents, but a road win against Washington is also respected in the room. The committee has specifically noted the elite play of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — and even with both sidelined with injuries on Saturday, Ohio State was able to dismantle the Rutgers defense.
Why they could be lower: Nothing happened on Saturday that would prompt the committee to rethink the Buckeyes’ place at the top, but Ohio State had the worst schedule strength (No. 48) of the top three teams entering Saturday.
Need to know: Although Ohio State and Indiana remain the most likely matchup in the Big Ten championship game — each controls its own destiny — neither clinched a spot in Week 13. Ohio State can clinch a spot with a win against Michigan OR losses by both Indiana and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are joined by Oregon and Michigan with chances to reach the Big Ten title game, but the latter two teams both need help to clinch.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)
Why they could be here: With the Hoosiers on a bye — and both Ohio State and Texas A&M playing unranked, inferior opponents — it’s unlikely there’s any movement at the top again. Indiana has earned the committee’s respect with its double-digit win at Oregon and its top-five rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency. The group has taken note of Indiana’s consistent dominance, with its most glaring struggles coming on the road at Iowa and Penn State, both notoriously difficult places to win. Indiana entered Week 13 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric.
Why they could be higher: Given how the committee has voted and deliberated through three rankings, Indiana likely needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan — or IU needs to beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game — to earn the top spot.
Need to know: Indiana can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win next week or an Ohio State loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. The Hoosiers had a bye to prepare for their regular-season finale against their in-state rivals.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)
Why they could be here: It’s not because they manhandled Samford, an overmatched 1-11 FCS team. It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame, the highlight of their undefeated résumé. The Nov. 8 win at Mizzou, which came when Tigers starting quarterback Beau Pribula was sidelined with an injury, is a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday by Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas A&M still leads the nation in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which gives the average top 25 team just a 2.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.
Why they could be lower: It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Need to know: The Aggies will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas OR if both Alabama and Ole Miss lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage on Friday night after Thanksgiving.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are here because of their 35-10 drubbing of Texas on Nov. 15 — not because they overpowered Charlotte 35-3 on Saturday. Georgia has one loss and Alabama has two, so the Bulldogs’ head-to-head loss to the Tide on Sept. 27 was overcome in the third ranking. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas give Georgia one of the best résumés in the country. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 12 in strength of schedule — ahead of Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see the committee move Georgia this week — especially since everyone played weaker opponents and Texas Tech was on a bye — but if Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies. The committee would compare Texas as a common opponent, and Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly. Georgia also has more wins against ranked opponents (a win against Georgia Tech could add another) and a slightly tougher schedule. Some committee members could also think Georgia would have a slightly better loss (Alabama) than A&M (Texas).
Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC title game in Week 14 with an Alabama loss OR a Texas A&M loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders had a bye week and are “highly regarded by this committee,” chair Hunter Yurachek said following the third ranking. Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front. Texas Tech’s lone loss was Oct. 18 at Arizona State, which popped into the latest ranking at No. 25, helping to ease some of that stumble.
Why they could be lower: With both Texas Tech and Ole Miss off on Saturday, it’s unlikely their positions will change in the fourth ranking.
Need to know: Texas Tech is within arm’s reach of a first-round bye, which makes it highly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff even if they finished as the Big 12 runner-up.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a notoriously difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a 91.6% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)
Why they could be here: The committee has had Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss in part because of a better résumé, though the Red Raiders have two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss also has two (Oklahoma and Tulane). The Rebels’ win against the Sooners looks better than Oregon’s win against USC, as the Sooners are a top-10 team and were able to hold off Missouri on Saturday to stay that way.
Why they could be lower: The committee members could consider bumping Oregon ahead of Ole Miss, as they’ve been waiting for a performance like Saturday’s against another CFP contender and the Ducks delivered against USC. Oregon and Ole Miss are extremely close in both strength of record and strength of schedule, and they both lost to a top-four team. Ole Miss also has a win against Tulane, which is now the leader for a Group of 5 playoff spot, and the win against the Sooners was on the road, whereas Oregon beat USC at home. With everything else so comparable, those are some small details that might continue to lean in the Rebels’ favor — if maybe for only another week.
Need to know: The Rebels will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game if they win the Egg Bowl AND both Texas A&M and Alabama lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels don’t have much if any margin for error against their in-state rivals. A second loss would put Ole Miss into a debate it might not win, given its schedule strength ranks No. 15 in the SEC.
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Ducks added a much-needed statement win to their résumé on Saturday against USC, solidifying their spot as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Assuming three-loss USC is still ranked on Tuesday night, though, Saturday’s victory is the Ducks’ only win against a CFP top 25 team. Big Ten opponents Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all above .500, which the committee values, but Ole Miss has a slightly better résumé with its wins against Oklahoma and Tulane.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks have won five straight since their 30-20 home loss against Indiana on Oct. 11, but USC was the kind of strong performance against a top-15 team the committee has been waiting for. And they did it without several key injured players on both sides of the ball.
Need to know: With USC dropping out of the playoff picture, the biggest threat to Oregon is gone, but Michigan can still disrupt the picture in the final week. According to ESPN Research, if Michigan beats rival Ohio State AND Indiana OR Oregon loses, the Wolverines will clinch a spot in the conference championship game. Which team they face depends on how those other results unfold, but they could play any of those three — Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. This isn’t an easy road trip, as the bowl-bound Huskies have had a respectable season in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)
Why they could be here: A win against what was the committee’s No. 22 team in Missouri should further solidify Oklahoma’s foothold in the No. 8 spot because the defense was dominant on a day the offense did just enough. That was Oklahoma’s third straight win against a CFP top 25 opponent, including back-to-back road wins against Tennessee and Alabama. The Sooners also earned a ranked win on Sept. 6 against Michigan, which continues to be valuable after the Wolverines kept their playoff hopes alive on Saturday with a win against Maryland.
Why they could be lower: It’s clear the committee likes Notre Dame, and the Irish hammered Syracuse 70-7. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, but the Sooners’ offense is No. 43 in efficiency — well below No. 6 Notre Dame. It would be difficult to justify flipping the Irish above the Sooners, though, given that Syracuse is now 3-8 and OU beat a ranked SEC team on top of having a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the debate between Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be settled on the field — in Norman, where the Sooners would have home-field advantage in the first round. The No. 8 spot is the last team in the ranking to host a first-round game.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. LSU. The Sooners need to avoid what would be a devastating upset to the four-loss Tigers.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)
Why they could be here: The Irish have won nine straight since an 0-2 start, and the committee has considered Notre Dame’s narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami important factors in its deliberations. One reason Notre Dame was ranked ahead of two-loss Alabama in the third ranking was because the Irish lost by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State and its continued inability to run the ball have held it back. The Irish racked up some style points in Saturday’s drubbing of Syracuse, but the committee has already rewarded Notre Dame for its running game and staunch defense. On Saturday, the Irish scored three touchdowns (two on defense and one on special teams) before the offense even took the field. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt.
Why they could be higher: If the committee gives Notre Dame another boost, it would be because the Irish have been more consistently dominant on offense than the Sooners. Oklahoma, though, has played tougher competition than Notre Dame over the past few weeks and has the edge in overall schedule strength and strength of record.
Need to know: Although Notre Dame appears safe — and it would certainly be a shock to see it fall out of the playoff field — there is still a nightmare scenario for the Irish. If Alabama wins the SEC and jumps ahead of Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to the No. 10 spot, they could be in trouble if the Big 12 has two playoff teams. If BYU wins the Big 12, and Texas Tech joins it in the top nine as the Big 12 runner-up — then a team currently in the top 10 has to be excluded. The No. 11 team will get bumped out for the ACC champ and the No. 12 team will get knocked out for the Group of 5 champion.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford. The Irish have a 95% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)
Why they could be here: The committee made it clear last week that Alabama’s struggles on the ground have been an issue all season. It was one factor that separated No. 9 Notre Dame from No. 10 Alabama in last Tuesday’s ranking. Alabama’s 259 rushing yards in a lopsided 56-0 win against a 3-9 FCS team in Eastern Illinois aren’t going to sway anyone in the room enough to move the Tide up. Alabama still has one of the best résumés in the country, including a win against No. 4 Georgia during a streak of four straight CFP top 25 wins during the middle of the season. The loss to Oklahoma will keep Alabama behind the Sooners as long as the committee deems them comparable.
Why they could be higher: If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in strength of record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.
Need to know: With Tennessee’s win on Saturday, Alabama can now clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win against Auburn.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Iron Bowl is a must-win for the Tide.
11. BYU Cougars (10-1)
Why they could be here: With the win at Cincinnati, BYU passed its toughest remaining test of the regular season and earned another road win against a team that was ranked by the committee, albeit for a fleeting moment. BYU’s Oct. 18 win against Utah will continue to resonate in the room after Utah found a way to beat a pesky K-State team. The head-to-head win against the Utes will also keep BYU ahead of them. BYU’s only loss was on the road against No. 5 Texas Tech, but it was a poor performance that raised some eyebrows in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify moving BYU given the head-to-head against Utah and one fewer loss. And Alabama’s résumé will make it very difficult for the Cougars to move up.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but is guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. UCF. The 5-6 Knights will be playing for bowl eligibility.
12. Utah Utes (9-2)
Why they could be here: After Utah found a way to escape K-State on Saturday, its only losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — Texas Tech and BYU — and the committee considers who a team lost to as part of its deliberations. The Utes’ best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami’s convincing road win at Virginia Tech and bump the Canes up a notch because they played far better defense — albeit against a 3-8 ACC team. Utah allowed 472 rushing yards and 11.2 yards per carry against Kansas State — on its home field. It was Miami’s third straight win by at least 17 points, showing some of the consistency committee members had been looking for. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame is also better than any win Utah has earned to date.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Tulane.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. At 5-6, the Jayhawks will be playing for bowl eligibility.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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