For Georgia QB Carson Beck, being boring isn’t a bad thing
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
ATHENS, Ga. — Nobody has ever accused Georgia quarterback Carson Beck of going full “Tin Cup” and playing with go-for-broke style on the football field.
If anything, he prides himself on being boring. Yes, boring.
“If you watch guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and some of the greats, during those moments when you just couldn’t stop them, it’s because they’re always in the right place with the ball at the right time,” Beck said. “Sometimes it’s boring to watch, but it wins football games.
“I mean, obviously, it’s cool to do something spectacular, but I’m out there to win. And when you have the kind of talent I have around me at the University of Georgia, it’s about moving the ball down the field, getting first downs and throwing touchdowns. That’s the name of the game, and if it’s boring, I’ll take it.”
And yet, there is a little gunslinger in Beck, whose competitive fires burn deep but not always outwardly. His lifelong friend, Brendon Quinn, said Beck is hardly afraid to “go for the green” when the time is right.
Case in point: They were playing golf at Quinn’s home course, Queen’s Harbour Yacht and Country Club in Jacksonville, Florida, a few years ago and came to the 17th hole, a 525-yard, par-5 dogleg left with a large water hazard about 260 yards from the tee box.
Beck casually pulled out his driver. He might as well have been standing in the pocket, getting ready to deliver a strike on a crossing route as he addressed his ball.
“It’s gotta be 300 yards to clear the water,” Quinn told Beck.
Beck nodded and replied, “I know, but I’m going to hit driver and don’t really care where it goes.”
The ball shot off Beck’s club and disappeared.
“We’re all thinking it was a bad shot, that there’s no way it got over,” Quinn said. “Then we get on the other side of the water, and there it is sitting in the middle of the fairway, probably 310 yards. I’m like, ‘There’s literally no way he hit that ball,’ and he was like he always is — calm.
“Nothing ever gets to him, good or bad.”
For the record, Beck birdied the hole. He hit a 7-iron into the green and two-putted.
Once again, ho-hum. Fairways and greens. First downs and touchdowns.
“Carson’s been that person since he got here,” Georgia senior linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. said. “He’s always chill, always calm, always in control. The main thing is that he has confidence in himself, and he had that same confidence even before he played [here], before the whole world got to see him do it.”
EVEN FOR BECK, it’s surreal how much his world has changed in less than a year. He was the proverbial mop-up quarterback his first three seasons on the Georgia campus and attempted just 58 passes. He watched from the sideline as Stetson Bennett led the Bulldogs to back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022.
In August, when preseason camp began, Beck still hadn’t been named the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback, as he was competing for the job with Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton.
“It was assumed that I was going to be the starter, but nothing was set in stone,” Beck said. “My only focus was competing every day. I still have that same mindset, but it’s more a competing-against-myself type of thing now. How can I be better so that everybody else around me is better?
“Respect is always earned, and trust is always earned. And for me, to be able to do that my first season as a starter, to earn the respect and have the trust of my teammates, was everything.”
As Georgia prepares for its spring game Saturday at Sanford Stadium, Beck has gone from fighting to be the guy who replaces Bennett eight months ago to one of the preseason favorites to win the Heisman Trophy and potentially the top quarterback taken in the 2025 NFL draft.
One NFL director of college scouting told ESPN that the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Beck was probably the No. 1 quarterback prospect at this point.
“He has all the tools — size, the athletic ability to operate in or out of the pocket, a big arm, can drive the ball into tight windows or throw with touch,” the scout said. “He also got better throughout the year.”
Beck passed for 3,941 yards last season, the third most of any FBS quarterback. He threw 24 touchdown passes and just six interceptions and also rushed for four touchdowns. His 72.4 completion percentage was a school record. He could have entered the NFL draft this year, but announced in mid-December that he was returning to Georgia.
“There was more I wanted to do here, more that this team can accomplish,” Beck said. “I’d worked hard to get to this point and waited my turn. I didn’t leave earlier when maybe I had chances to transfer, so I sure wasn’t going to leave now.”
His patience is rare in today’s college game, especially at the quarterback position, as more than 50% of last year’s FBS starters had transferred at least once in their careers. As an early enrollee in 2020, Beck was part of a Georgia quarterback room that included USC transfer JT Daniels, Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman, junior college transfer Bennett and redshirt freshman D’Wan Mathis. Through it all, Beck remained confident his time would come, and when it did, he knew he would be ready.
“If you’re scared of competition at Georgia, then you’re at the wrong place,” Beck said.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart has pointed out several times that Beck was actually ahead of Bennett on the depth chart entering the 2021 season, when Daniels opened as the starter against Clemson. But when Daniels suffered an oblique injury, the Bulldogs turned to Bennett and not Beck to start against UAB. Bennett threw five touchdown passes and the rest, as they say, is history.
“Even then, Carson never really flinched,” Quinn said. “Yeah, he wanted to play and felt like he was good enough to play, but I’ve never known him to run from a challenge, and he wasn’t going to then.”
Similarly, Beck never flinched last season in taking over for Bennett and leading the Bulldogs to their third straight unbeaten regular season. Smart acknowledged the staff probably tried to protect him too much at the beginning of the season, but it soon became obvious Beck had everything he needed, mentally and physically, to take on whatever load offensive coordinator Mike Bobo wanted to place on him. At that point, the training wheels came off, which was never more apparent than the 27-20 comeback win over Auburn in Week 5.
In his first road start, Beck passed for 236 yards in the second half and threw the winning touchdown to Brock Bowers, all after the Bulldogs’ first possession of the second half ended in a fumble. Late in the fourth quarter, they had managed just 180 total yards before Beck led them on a tying, 98-yard touchdown drive.
“You’ve got to find calm in the chaos because, I mean, it can get chaotic out there, especially on the road,” Beck said.
Smart admitted it was difficult at times to gauge Beck’s inner fire because he is so cool and collected. Smart refers to Beck as “Mr. Mellow” because of his uncanny ability to never get rattled.
“He’s almost flatlined out there, non-emotional to the point that sometimes it drives me nuts because I’m the exact opposite,” Smart said. “Me and Bobo are strung so tightly as high school coaches’ kids, and then there’s this guy that throws touchdowns, throws an interception, and it’s the same.
“But it’s also his strength because when he does something wrong in a game, he’s not affected by it. He has great composure. You don’t want to blitz this guy because he just steps up and throws. He’s not afraid of anything. So many quarterbacks are not good because they’re worried about everything, like an emotional roller coaster.
“With Carson, sometimes I don’t know if his heart is beating.”
But just because Beck personifies “chill,” that doesn’t mean he’s adverse to mixing it up physically. Of all the winning plays Beck made last season for the Bulldogs, one that remains etched in Smart’s mind is a tackle.
Beck threw an interception in the fourth quarter of Georgia’s 37-20 win over Vanderbilt, and the Commodores’ CJ Taylor was racing down the left sideline for what looked to be an easy touchdown. Out of nowhere, Beck came flying in with a bone-jarring shoulder tackle to knock Taylor out of bounds at the 1-yard line and also knock the Vandy defender out of the game.
“I mean, he knocks the living dogs— out of the guy,” Smart said. “That’s Carson and a big reason the guys in the locker room love him.”
BECK IS THE antithesis of showy on the football field. That holds true off it as well, although he did treat himself this offseason to a new Lamborghini thanks to some lucrative NIL deals.
With his newfound fame, he has a hard time going anywhere in public without being besieged by autograph seekers, fans wanting pictures or simply people wanting to hang out with Georgia’s newest star quarterback. Beck joked that his DoorDash bill has increased exponentially.
“It’s different, but I’m always going to sign or take a picture if someone wants to,” Beck said. “It’s part of being a quarterback in the SEC. I remind myself of that, that a lot of people would love to be in this position.”
Beck, 21, has been able to insulate himself with help from some longtime friends from the Jacksonville area. None of his four roommates, including Quinn, play football. Quinn moved to Athens in February and is an online student at Florida, Georgia’s bitter rival. The two have known each other since they were toddlers, when their parents were neighbors. Two other close friends, Cole Macklin and Zach Postlethwait, are set to move in for Beck’s final season. Postlethwait is finishing up school at Florida State.
Quinn grew up a Florida fan, but wore Georgia gear at last year’s game and will again this year. But after that, he’s joked with Beck that he’s burning his Georgia apparel.
“It’s cool to live with guys you’ve known pretty much your whole life,” Beck said. “They know you in a way that you’re not just a football player, guys you can confide in. There’s a point where it’s too much football and you need time with different people.”
One of their escapes is golf, something Beck really got into around the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. But Quinn can’t remember a sport (or anything, for that matter) that Beck didn’t excel at when they were growing up.
Beck initially committed to play baseball at Florida as a sophomore in high school. He was a pitcher with a big-time arm, but realized his future was in football.
“I guess baseball sort of got boring,” Beck said, flashing a sheepish smile.
He later committed to Alabama for football before ultimately landing with Georgia despite Florida making another strong push.
“I couldn’t say no to Kirby Smart and a chance to play for a Georgia program I knew was on the verge of big things,” Beck said.
Quinn was convinced his friend also was on the verge of big things. They’ve competed against or with each other in everything from youth baseball to video games. Quinn moved to Colorado for six years when he was 10, but the two quickly reconnected when Quinn returned to Florida.
And even as they grew older, Quinn said Beck was still intent on making everything a competition. By the time Beck enrolled at Georgia, Quinn had become proficient at solving a Rubik’s Cube in less than a minute. Within a couple of weeks, he and Beck were having competitions to see who could solve one faster.
“He got me the majority of time, but I held my own,” Quinn said. “That just shows you how smart he is and how quickly he processes things, qualities all the great quarterbacks have.”
Beck flashed that greatness often last season and was at his best against the best teams. He was 5-1 against top-20 opponents with a 73.9 completion percentage, 1,693 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, the SEC’s leader in career passing yards (13,166) and touchdown passes (121), has been high on Beck since he stepped on campus. Murray remembers a conversation he had with Bobo, also a former Georgia quarterback, when Bobo returned to the program as an analyst in 2022.
“This kid is the real deal. He throws the ball so effortlessly,” Bobo told Murray.
Murray didn’t need to be sold.
“Oh, I know. When he gets his chance, he’s going to be a superstar,” Murray, a college football analyst for ESPN, responded.
The best news for Georgia fans, Murray said, is there’s a lot more out there for Beck, who had the No. 4 passing grade among all FBS quarterbacks last season by Pro Football Focus. The top two were Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels.
Murray heard some of the frustration from Georgia fans early last season that Beck didn’t take enough shots downfield and seemed content to work the shorter routes.
“But his understanding of how to play the position of quarterback was so impressive,” Murray said, “especially as a first-year starter, and being savvy enough to take the checkdown, make the shorter throws and not hang on and hang on until all hell breaks loose.
“At the same time, you can’t play the quarterback position if you’re afraid to make mistakes. You have to take chances, smart chances, calculated chances at certain times. That comes from experience, and I think you’ll see Carson continue to take completions, understand he’s got a great team around him, but also be a little riskier at certain points of the game and create more explosive plays.”
Beck has heard the narrative that he will have to do even more this season, especially with the loss of his top target (tight end Bowers), three of the team’s top four pass-catchers and the Bulldogs’ top two rushers from a year ago.
Granted, there’s no replacing an automatic first down like Bowers, but Beck is eager to hit the field Aug. 31 against Clemson with his new supporting cast. He thinks transfer receivers Dominic Lovett and Rara Thomas will be even better in their second seasons in the system, and even though Bowers is headed to the NFL, there won’t be any shortage of talent at the tight end position with Oscar Delp, Lawson Luckie and Stanford transfer Ben Yurosek. Moreover, this could be one of Smart’s best offensive lines at Georgia.
“All I can tell you is what I’ve seen this spring, and I’m super excited about what these guys are going to bring to the table, especially in our second year together with Coach Bobo,” Beck said. “Brock Bowers may not be out there, but how many Brock Bowers are out there, period.”
Beck still winces at the mention of the Bulldogs’ loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game last season, which kept Georgia from pursuing a historic third straight national title. He refused to watch any of the College Football Playoff games. The team flew back to Athens after the 63-3 dismantling of Florida State in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Dec. 30, and Beck was back home in Jacksonville by New Year’s Day.
He was in no mood to watch football. He even left a friend’s house because they were all watching the playoff games. He returned to his house, fell asleep and said he didn’t even look at social media for updates.
“Just couldn’t do it,” Beck said. “Didn’t care. Didn’t want to watch. I was so mad. I felt like we should have been there. We didn’t play our best game and put it in the committee’s hands. I was pissed off. We all were, and that’s the way we’ve gone about our business ever since.”
Amid all the talk following the loss to Alabama about whether Beck would turn pro, plus chatter about his new Lamborghini and the NIL money he was raking in, Beck never lost sight of why he came to Georgia in the first place.
Sure, the perks are nice, but winning is even better.
“I’m pretty miserable when I lose at anything,” Beck said.
Quinn has seen all sides of Beck for the better part of the past two decades. He hears the wide range of adjectives to describe his buddy — mellow, ultracompetitive, boring, low key, unflappable — and adds his own.
Resolute.
“There’s a lot going on around Carson right now, a lot he has to deal with,” Quinn said. “People talk about the Lamborghini, his NIL deals, all that outside stuff. Carson’s here to play football. He’s not here for anything else.
“He wants to win a national championship, have a chance to go to the NFL and maybe win a Heisman Trophy. Those are his goals, and I’d say in that order.”
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Greg Wyshynski
The Winnipeg Jets defended star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck after another disastrous performance on the road, a 5-2 loss Friday night in which the St. Louis Blues forced Game 7 in their Stanley Cup Playoff opening-round series.
Hellebuyck was pulled after the second period in favor of backup Eric Comrie, the third straight game in St. Louis that he failed to finish. Hellebuyck surrendered five goals on 23 shots, including four goals on eight shots during a 5-minute, 23-second stretch in the second period that cost the Jets the game.
As has become tradition in this series, Blues fans mockingly chanted, “We want Connor!” after Hellebuyck left the game and the Jets’ bench.
“This isn’t about Connor,” Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said. “Tonight was not about Connor. Tonight, we imploded in front of him. Now, it’s a one-game showdown. It’s our goalie against their goalie, our best players against their best, our grinders against theirs. I have a lot of confidence in our [entire] group — not just Helly.”
Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy last season as the NHL’s top goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. He also won the award in 2019-20 and is the favorite to win it for a third time this season. Hellebuyck is also a finalist for the 2024-25 Hart Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s most valuable player. He was the starting goaltender for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February and was expected to do the same for the U.S. in next year’s Winter Olympics in Italy.
But his recent performances in the Stanley Cup playoffs have been the antithesis of that success.
Over the past three postseasons, two of which the Jets lost in the first round in just five games, Hellebuyck is 5-11 with an .860 save percentage.
Hellebuyck failed to finish any of the three games played in St. Louis during the series. He was pulled with 9:28 left in regulation in Game 3, having given up six goals on 25 shots. In Game 4, Hellebuyck was pulled 2:01 into the third period after surrendering five goals on 18 shots. Hellebuyck has allowed four or more goals in seven straight road playoff games, tying the second-longest streak in Stanley Cup playoff history
At home against the Blues in this series, it has been a different story, if not necessarily a great one: Hellebuyck is 3-0 in Winnipeg, with an .879 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average.
His home numbers in the regular season: 27-3-3 with a .938 save percentage and a 1.63 goals-against average in 33 games. His road numbers: 20-9-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. Hellebuyck was not pulled in his 63 appearances in the regular season.
Even with Hellebuyck’s multiple seasons of playoff struggles, his team exonerated him from blame for the Game 6 loss.
“I don’t need to talk about Bucky,” said forward Nikolaj Ehlers, who returned to the lineup for the first time since April 12 after a foot injury. “He’s been unbelievable for us all year. He’s continued to do that. We’ve got to be better.”
Said forward Cole Perfetti, who had a goal in Game 6: “Things got carried away. We lost our game for four or five minutes. They got a couple pucks through, and they found the back of the net. It’s frustrating. Happened a couple of times now this series where we fell asleep and they jumped on us.”
Perfetti said the Jets have rebounded from losses like this — one reason their confidence isn’t shaken ahead of Sunday’s Game 7.
“We had a loss like that in Game 4 [in St. Louis],” he said. “We went home and got the job done in Game 5. We’ve got the home ice. We’ve got the fans behind us and our barn rocking.”
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Bill Connelly
Almost no word in the English language makes a college football fan more defensive than the L-word: luck.
We weren’t lucky to have a great turnover margin — our coaches are just really good at emphasizing ball security! We’re tougher than everyone else — that’s why we recovered all those fumbles!
We weren’t lucky to win all those close games — we’re clutch! Our coaches know how to press all the right buttons! Our quarterback is a cool customer!
We weren’t lucky to have fewer injuries than everyone else — our strength-and-conditioning coach is the best in America! And again: We’re just tougher!
As loath as we may be to admit it, a large percentage of a given college football season — with its small overall sample of games — is determined by the bounce of a pointy ball, the bend of a ligament and the whims of fate. Certain teams will end up with an unsustainably good turnover margin that turns on them the next year. Certain teams (often the same ones) will enjoy a great run of close-game fortune based on some combination of great coaching, sturdy quarterback play, timely special teams contributions … and massive amounts of unsustainable randomness. Certain teams will keep their starting lineups mostly intact for 12 or more games while another is watching its depth chart change dramatically on a week-to-week basis.
As we prepare for the 2025 college football season, it’s worth stepping back and looking at who did, and didn’t, get the bounces in 2024. Just because Lady Luck was (or wasn’t) on your side one year, doesn’t automatically mean your fortunes will flip the next, but that’s often how these things go. Be it turnovers, close-game fortune or injuries, let’s talk about the teams that were dealt the best and worst hands last fall.
Jump to a section:
Turnover luck | Close games luck
Injuries and general shuffling | Turnaround candidates
Turnover luck
In last year’s ACC championship game, Clemson bolted to a 24-7 halftime lead, then white-knuckled it to the finish. SMU came back to tie the score at 31 with only 16 seconds left, but Nolan Hauser‘s 56-yard field goal at the buzzer gave the Tigers a 34-31 victory and a spot in 2024’s College Football Playoff at Alabama’s expense.
In the first series of the game, Clemson’s T.J. Parker pulled a perfect sack-and-strip of SMU QB Kevin Jennings, forcing and falling on a loose ball at the SMU 33-yard line. Clemson scored two plays later to take a 7-0 lead. Late in the first quarter, Khalil Barnes picked off a Jennings pass near midfield, ending what could have become a scoring threat with one more first down. A few minutes later, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik fumbled at the end of a 14-yard gain, but tight end Jake Briningstool recovered it at midfield, preventing another potential scoring threat from developing. (Klubnik fumbled seven times in the 2024 season but lost only one of them.)
Early in the third quarter, after SMU cut Clemson’s lead to 24-14, David Eziomume fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the Clemson 6, but teammate Keith Adams Jr. recovered it right before two SMU players pounced.
Over 60 minutes, both teams fumbled twice, and Clemson defended (intercepted or broke up) eight passes to SMU’s seven. On average, 50% of fumbles are lost and about 21% of passes defended become INTs, so Clemson’s expected turnover margin in this game was plus-0.2 (because of the extra pass defended). The Tigers’ actual turnover margin was plus-2, a difference of 1.8 turnovers in a game they barely won.
Clemson was obviously a solid team in 2024, but the Tigers probably wouldn’t have reached the CFP without turnovers luck. For the season, they fumbled 16 times but lost only three, and comparing their expected (based on the averages above) and actual turnover margins, almost no one benefited more from the randomness of a bouncing ball.
It probably isn’t a surprise to see that, of last year’s 12 playoff teams, eight benefited from positive turnovers luck, and six were at plus-3.3 or higher. You’ve got to be lucky and good to win, right?
You aren’t often lucky for two straight years, though. It might be noteworthy to point out that, of the teams in Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early 2025 rankings, five were in the top 20 in terms of turnovers luck: No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Clemson, No. 9 BYU, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 17 Indiana (plus two others from his Teams Also Considered list: Army and Baylor).
It’s also noteworthy to point out that three teams on Schlabach’s list — No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU and No. 15 SMU — ranked in the triple-digits in terms of turnovers luck. Oregon started the season 13-0 without the benefit of bounces. For that matter, Auburn, a team on the Also Considered list, ranked 125th in turnovers luck in a season that saw the Tigers go just 1-3 in one-score finishes. There might not have been a more what-could-have-been team in the country than Hugh Freeze’s Tigers.
Close games
One of my favorite tools in my statistical toolbox is what I call postgame win expectancy. The idea is to take all of a game’s key, predictive stats — all the things that end up feeding into my SP+ rankings — and basically toss them into the air and say, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.”
Alabama‘s 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 5 was one of the most impactful results of the CFP race. It was also one of the least likely results of the season in terms of postgame win expectancy. Bama averaged 8.8 yards per play to Vandy’s 5.6, generated a 56% success rate* to Vandy’s 43% and scored touchdowns on all four of its trips into the red zone. It’s really hard to lose when you do all of that — in fact, the Crimson Tide’s postgame win expectancy was a whopping 98.5%. (You can see all postgame win expectancy data here)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth. It is one of the more reliable and predictive stats you’ll find, and it’s a big part of SP+.)
Vandy managed to overcome these stats in part because of two of the most perfect bounces you’ll ever see. In the first, Jalen Milroe had a pass batted at the line, and it deflected high into the air and, eventually, into the arms of Randon Fontenette, who caught it on the run and raced 29 yards for a touchdown and an early 13-0 lead.
In the second half, with Bama driving to potentially take the lead, Miles Capers sacked Milroe and forced a fumble; the ball sat on the ground for what felt like an eternity before Yilanan Ouattara outwrestled a Bama lineman for it. Instead of trailing, Vandy took over near midfield and scored seven plays later. It took turnovers luck and unlikely key-play execution — despite a 43% success rate, Diego Pavia and the Commodores went 12-for-18 on third down and 1-for-1 on fourth — for Vandy to turn a 1.5% postgame win expectancy into a victory. It also wasn’t Alabama’s only incredibly unlikely loss: The Tide were at 87.8% to beat Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl but fell 19-13.
(Ole Miss can feel the Tide’s pain: The Rebels were at 76.0% postgame win expectancy against Kentucky and 73.7% against Florida. There was only a 6% chance that they would lose both games, and even going 1-1 would have likely landed them a CFP bid. They lost both.)
Adding up each game’s postgame win expectancy is a nice way of seeing how many games a team should have won on average. I call this a team’s second-order win total. Alabama was at 10.7 second-order wins but went 9-4. That was one of the biggest differences of the season. Somehow, however, Iron Bowl rival Auburn was even more unfortunate.
Based solely on stats, Arkansas State should have won about four games, and Auburn should have won about eight. Instead, the Red Wolves went 8-5 and the Tigers went 5-7.
Comparing win totals to these second-order wins is one of the surest ways of identifying potential turnaround stories for the following season. In 2023, 15 teams had second-order win totals at least one game higher than their actual win totals — meaning they suffered from poor close-game fortune. Ten of those 15 teams saw their win totals increase by at least two games in 2024, including East Carolina (from 2-10 to 8-5), TCU (5-7 to 9-4), Pitt (3-9 to 7-6), Boise State (8-6 to 12-2) and Louisiana (6-7 to 10-4). On average, these 15 teams improved by 1.9 wins.
On the flip side, 19 teams overachieved their second-order win totals by at least 1.0 wins in 2023. This list includes both of 2023’s national title game participants, Washington and Michigan. The Huskies and Wolverines sank from a combined 29-1 in 2023 to 14-12 in 2024, and it could have been even worse. Michigan overachieved again, going 8-5 despite a second-order win total of 6.0. Other 2023 overachievers weren’t so lucky. Oklahoma State (from 10-4 to 3-9), Wyoming (from 9-4 to 3-9), Northwestern (from 8-5 to 4-8) and NC State (from 9-4 to 6-7) all won more games than the stats expected in 2023, and all of them crumpled to some degree in 2024. On average, the 19 overachieving teams regressed by 1.9 wins last fall.
It’s worth keeping in mind that several teams in Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 — including No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU, No. 11 Iowa State, No. 13 Illinois and, yes, No. 21 Michigan — all exceeded statistical expectations in wins last season, as did Also Considered teams like Army, Duke, Missouri and Texas Tech. The fact that Oregon and LSU overachieved while suffering from poor turnovers luck is (admittedly) rather unlikely and paints a conflicting picture.
Meanwhile, one should note that three Way-Too-Early teams — No. 12 Alabama, No. 23 Miami and No. 25 Ole Miss (plus Washington and, of course, Auburn from the Also Considered list) — all lost more games than expected last season. With just a little bit of good fortune, they could prove to be awfully underrated.
Injuries and general shuffling
Injuries are hard to define in college football — coaches are frequently canny in the information they do and do not provide, and with so many teams in FBS, it’s impossible to derive accurate data regarding how many games were missed due to injury.
We can glean quite a bit from starting lineups, however. Teams with lineups that barely changed throughout the season were probably pretty happy with their overall results, while teams with ever-changing lineups likely succumbed to lots of losses. Below, I’ve ranked teams using a simple ratio: I compared (a) the number of players who either started every game or started all but one for a given team to (b) the number of players who started only one or two games, likely as a stopgap. If you had far more of the former, your team likely avoided major injury issues and, with a couple of major exceptions, thrived. If you had more of the latter, the negative effects were probably pretty obvious.
Despite the presence of 1-11 Purdue and 2-10 Kennesaw State near the top of the list — Purdue fielded one of the worst power conference teams in recent memory and barely could blame injury for its issues — you can still see a decent correlation between a positive ratio and positive results. The six teams with a ratio of at least 2.8 or above went a combined 62-22 in 2024, while the teams with a 0.5 ratio or worse went 31-56.
Seven of nine conference champions had a ratio of at least 1.3, and 11 of the 12 CFP teams were at 1.44 or higher (five were at 2.6 or higher). Indiana, the most shocking of CFP teams, was second on the list above; epic disappointments like Oklahoma and, especially, Florida State were near the bottom. (The fact that Georgia won the SEC and reached the CFP despite a pretty terrible injury ratio speaks volumes about the depth Kirby Smart has built in Athens. Of course, the Dawgs also enjoyed solid turnovers luck.)
Major turnaround candidates
It’s fair to use this information as a reason for skepticism about teams like Indiana (turnovers luck and injuries luck), Clemson (turnovers luck), Iowa State (close-games luck), Penn State (injuries luck) or Sam Houston (all of the above, plus a coaching change), but let’s end on an optimistic note instead. Here are five teams that could pretty easily enjoy a big turnaround if Lady Luck is a little kinder.
Auburn Tigers: Auburn enjoyed a better success rate than its opponents (44.7% to 38.5%) and made more big plays as well (8.9% of plays gained 20-plus yards versus 5.7% for opponents). That makes it awfully hard to lose! But the Tigers made exactly the mistake they couldn’t make and managed to lose games with 94%, 76% and 61% postgame win expectancy. There’s nothing saying this was all bad luck, but even with a modest turnaround in fortune, the Tigers will have a very high ceiling in 2025.
Florida Gators: The Gators improved from 41st to 20th in SP+ and from 5-7 to 8-5 overall despite starting three quarterbacks and 12 different DBs and ranking 132nd on the list above. That says pretty spectacular things about their overall upside, especially considering their improved experience levels on the O-line, in the secondary and the general optimism about sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.
Florida Atlantic Owls: Only one team ranked 111th or worse in all three of the tables above — turnovers luck (111th), second-order win difference (121st) and injury ratio (131st). You could use this information to make the case that the Owls shouldn’t have fired head coach Tom Herman, or you could simply say that new head coach Zach Kittley is pretty well-positioned to get some bounces and hit the ground running.
Florida State Seminoles: There was evidently plenty of poor fortune to go around in the Sunshine State last season, and while Mike Norvell’s Seminoles suffered an epic hangover on the field, they also didn’t get a single bounce: They were 129th in turnovers luck, 99th in second-order win difference and 110th in injury ratio. Norvell has brought in new coordinators and plenty of new players, and the Noles are almost guaranteed to jump up from 2-10. With a little luck, that jump could be a pretty big one.
Utah Utes: Along with UCF, Utah was one of only two teams to start four different quarterbacks in 2024. The Utes were also among only four teams to start at least 11 different receivers or tight ends and among five teams to start at least nine defensive linemen. If you’re looking for an easy explanation for how they fell from 65th to 96th in offensive SP+ and from 8-5 to 5-7 overall, that’s pretty succinct and telling.
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