NHL Power Rankings: Preseason expectations vs. regular season reality for all 32 teams
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
Less than a week remains in the 2023-24 NHL season, so we have a great sense of which teams overperformed, which teams underperformed and which teams were who we thought they were.
For this week’s edition of the power rankings — closing out the regular season — we’re comparing each club’s preseason expectation (using the standings point over/under totals from ESPN BET as a proxy) to their actual number of standings points on April 12.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published April 5. Points percentages and standings points are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 68.13%
Preseason O/U: 105.5
Actual: 109
There were high expectations for this club, and Dallas stayed slightly above pace all season. It’s made the Stars into an odds-on favorite to compete for the Stanley Cup. Will they exceed expectations on that journey as well?
Remaining games: vs. SEA (April 13), vs. STL (April 17)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 68.75%
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Actual: 110
This team was supposed to be good; in reality, the Rangers have been great. Whether it was the coaching change or star performances (from Artemi Panarin in particular) or New York settling into a solid identity early on, the Rangers found a formula to set them apart.
Remaining games: vs. NYI (April 13), vs. OTT (April 15)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 67.72%
Preseason O/U: 108.5
Actual: 107
Carolina began this regular season in such strange fashion — allowing 33 goals in their first seven games? Yikes! — that we couldn’t help but wonder whether the Hurricanes were tracking towards disaster. Hardly. Carolina corrected to meet expectations and, after a busy trade deadline adding Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jake Guentzel, the Canes look stronger than ever going into the postseason.
Remaining games: @ STL (April 12), April 14 (April 14), @ CBJ (April 16)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 66.46%
Preseason O/U: 89.5
Actual: 104
Rick Tocchet’s club takes the cake as this season’s largest overachiever. The Canucks have been beastly in ways the oddsmakers couldn’t predict — Quinn Hughes as a Norris Trophy front-runner? — and they’ve maintained a sharp edge for most of the season. The next task is making a mark this postseason.
Remaining games: @ EDM (April 13), vs. CGY (April 16), @ WPG (April 18)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 67.72%
Preseason O/U: 99.5
Actual: 107
The retirement of Patrice Bergeron tempered expectations for the B’s, but they have proven skeptics wrong by blowing past their predicted pace to sit among the league’s top teams. It’s the Bruins’ consistency that makes them a perennial threat, and after the sting of last season’s first-round playoff loss, Boston is poised to turn up the heat this postseason.
Remaining games: @ PIT (April 13), @ WSH (April 15), vs. OTT (April 16)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 65.82%
Preseason O/U: 107.5
Actual: 104
Colorado had another strong campaign that mirrored preseason expectations — but that success was hard-won, too. The Avalanche weathered injuries to key players and their goaltending — particularly from starter Alexander Georgiev — was uneven at best. Still, Colorado stayed closely on pace. Impressive.
Remaining games: vs. WPG (April 13), @ VGK (April 14), vs. EDM (April 18)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.25%
Preseason O/U: 99
Actual: 106
Matthew Tkachuk & Co. likely spooked some oddsmakers with all the offseason surgeries to top forwards and defensemen. The Panthers punched back to emerge as one of the NHL’s best teams this season, with a rejuvenated Sergei Bobrovsky, unstoppable Sam Reinhart and enviable depth combining to make Florida better than advertised.
Remaining games: vs. BUF (April 13), vs. TOR (April 16)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 65.58%
Preseason O/U: 106.5
Actual: 99
An underwhelming start to the season was so bad it cost Jay Woodcroft his job as head coach. The Oilers turned it around under Kris Knoblauch though, aided by the excellence of Connor McDavid and Stuart Skinner, specifically. Even if Edmonton doesn’t quite hit the mark, at least they didn’t get buried (too far) under it.
Remaining games: vs. ARI (April 12), vs. VAN (April 13), vs. SJ (April 15), @ ARI (April 17), @ COL (April 18)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 63.92%
Preseason O/U: 106.5
Actual: 101
Toronto fumbled around enough (with inconsistent goaltending, special teams and defensive play) to fall short of the oddsmakers’ high opinions. Could the adversity from their regular season ultimately fuel the Leafs’ postseason goals? Stay tuned.
Remaining games: vs. DET (April 13), @ FLA (April 16), @ TB (April 17)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 65.82%
Preseason O/U: 92.5
Actual: 104
The Jets showed the potential to far exceed any preseason predictions at times, and they will finish ahead of their preseason over/under. But it was a lack of consistency holding Winnipeg back from reaching higher altitudes in the regular season — a problem the Jets hope to have licked when soaring into the playoffs.
Remaining games: @ COL (April 13), vs. SEA (April 16), vs. VAN (April 18)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 60.13%
Preseason O/U: 87
Actual: 95
Music City’s hockey team has been the feel-good hit of the season’s second half. The Predators’ prospects looked bleak in the beginning, but enough clicked for Nashville to put them past their expected points pace and right into the postseason mix — was the canceled U2 concert the catalyst?
Remaining games: @ CHI (April 12), vs. CBJ (April 13), @ PIT (April 15)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 60.76%
Preseason O/U: 93
Actual: 96
The Lightning hitting the over in the final stretch of a semi-tumultuous regular season very on-brand for them. This team just knows how to finish — but can they do it again in the playoffs?
Remaining games: @ WSH (April 13), vs. BUF (April 15), vs. TOR (April 17)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 60.13%
Preseason O/U: 100
Actual: 95
The Kings are playoff-bound again, but Los Angeles let itself go too often this season to be an expected, top-tier Western Conference contender. The Kings wrestled with underperforming stars, changed coaching and racked up a few too many losing streaks to hit the triple-digit mark in points.
Remaining games: vs. ANA (April 13), vs. MIN (April 15), vs. CHI (April 18)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 56.33%
Preseason O/U: 93
Actual: 89
The Isles haven’t quite reached full potential in a season stacked with familiar problems, from a dearth of scoring to general lack of direction. The coaching change to Patrick Roy was an attempted shot in the arm, and the Islanders do control their playoff fate after looking much more focused in recent weeks.
Remaining games: @ NYR (April 13), @ NJ (April 15), vs. PIT (April 17)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 58.97%
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Actual: 92
The defending champs dipped into an inevitable midseason, post-Cup hangover that threw the Golden Knights off their preferred track. It wasn’t quite the injury-riddled campaign of years past — although Vegas did notably lose Jack Eichel and Mark Stone for stretches — but the Golden Knights kept adding (that Tomas Hertl trade was a jaw-dropper) as they look towards a repeat Cup run.
Remaining games: vs. MIN (April 12), vs. COL (April 14), vs. CHI (April 16), vs. ANA (April 18)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 54.43%
Preseason O/U: 97
Actual: 86
Pittsburgh underachieved for, oh, about 70 games — and then something happened to the Penguins. It started with Sidney Crosby refusing to be denied another shot at the postseason, and everyone else followed suit to put Pittsburgh back in the race. The Penguins won’t meet that preseason points threshold but if they secure a playoff berth we’re pretty sure they won’t mind.
Remaining games: vs. BOS (April 13), vs. NSH (April 15), @ NYI (April 17)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 56.33%
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Actual: 87
The Blues managed to get in the playoff race with an accelerated second-half points pace — which could have been even stronger if St. Louis didn’t play down to the competition on several occasions. Three loses to San Jose this season? Ouch.
Remaining games: vs. CAR (April 12), vs. SEA (April 14), @ DAL (April 17)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.80%
Preseason O/U: 85
Actual: 85
Washington has walked a tightrope all season. Where the Capitals fall, well — it’s fairly close to the expectation! Washington leaned on young players to complement Alex Ovechkin and the other veterans, and that’s naturally led to growing pains under first-year head coach Spencer Carbery. And yet, the Capitals remain in the playoff race to the bitter end.
Remaining games: vs. TB (April 13), vs. BOS (April 15), @ PHI (April 16)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.80%
Preseason O/U: 86.5
Actual: 85
Dylan Larkin and friends are right on the (preseason) money. But will that be enough to put the Red Wings back in the playoffs? It’s been a dogfight in the Eastern Conference to secure those final slots. When GM Steve Yzerman stood pat at the deadline it was with a belief in Detroit’s current potential. A postseason berth would prove that prediction right.
Remaining games: @ TOR (April 13), vs. MTL (April 15), @ MTL (April 16)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 53.21%
Preseason O/U: 97
Actual: 83
Minnesota quickly fell short of its own expectations this season (hence the November coaching change) but when injuries to critical players kept piling up there was simply no salvaging things. The Wild can seek better odds (and outcomes) next season.
Remaining games: @ VGK (April 12), @ SJ (April 13), @ LA (April 15), vs. SEA (April 18)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 50.64%
Preseason O/U: 92
Actual: 79
Seattle went from being the league’s No. 6 goal-scoring team a season ago to No. 29 this season. Clearly no one predicted that sort of tailspin by the Kraken.
Remaining games: @ DAL (April 13), @ STL (April 14), @ WPG (April 16), @ MIN (April 18)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 50.63%
Preseason O/U: 106
Actual: 81
After a series of unfortunate events — including significant injuries to Dougie Hamilton and Jack Hughes, along with lackluster goaltending — New Jersey slid well below expectations as one of the season’s most disappointing teams. The Devils are stocked with young talent, but were doomed by compounding issues that even a coaching switch and trade deadline moves couldn’t fix.
Remaining games: @ PHI (April 13), vs. NYI (April 15)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 53.13%
Preseason O/U: 74
Actual: 85
It surprised many that Philly was in a playoff spot for much of the season. That the Flyers faded into the spring (and out of the postseason hunt) was closer to their anticipated outcome. Still, it’s a positive for Philadelphia’s future to know they’re closer to turning a corner than we predicted.
Remaining games: vs. NJ (April 13), vs. WSH (April 16)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50.63%
Preseason O/U: 94
Actual: 81
Some believed this was the year for the Sabres to end the NHL’s longest playoff drought; that won’t be happening. Scoring struggles, goaltending issues and, yes, too many injuries, doomed Buffalo to yet another long offseason.
Remaining games: @ FLA (April 13), @ TB (April 15)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 48.08%
Preseason O/U: 95
Actual: 75
Calgary immediately underperformed with just four wins in its first 14 games. It set the Flames up for a seesaw of a season, where strong stretches inevitably faded into losing lulls. Oh, and stars like Jonathan Huberdeau still barely hitting double-digit goal totals aren’t exactly helping Calgary excel. The Flames can only hope the current youth movement pays more dividends next season.
Remaining games: @ ANA (April 12), vs. ARI (April 14), @ VAN (April 16), vs. SJ (April 18)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 46.20%
Preseason O/U: 77.5
Actual: 71
The Coyotes muddled their way to another mediocre season, with news this week that this could be their final one in Arizona.
Remaining games: @ EDM (April 12), @ CGY (April 14), vs. EDM (April 17)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 46.84%
Preseason O/U: 93.5
Actual: 74
A team that underwent many off-ice changes within the past 12 months, Ottawa never came close to reaching the expectations set for them — by anyone, really. The Senators said goodbye to their general manager and coach, dealt with the drama of a gambling scandal and are finding their way under new ownership and executives. Now, how will the Senators translate all those adjustments into success?
Remaining games: vs. MTL (April 13), @ NYR (April 15), @ BOS (April 16)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 46.20%
Preseason O/U: 73
Actual: 73
Montreal stayed the course in its rebuild and it kept them on track with where the oddsmakers expected — and that’s right near the bottom of the standings. Again.
Remaining games: @ OTT (April 13), @ DET (April 15), vs. DET (April 16)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 40.00%
Preseason O/U: 75
Actual: 64
Due to a number of factors, Columbus failed to be even average this season. That’s what happens when the infirmary fills up with most of a team’s top players. It also doesn’t help that they went through a coaching change (before training camp even began), and are now searching for a new full-time general manager. Nowhere to go but up!
Remaining games: @ NSH (April 13), vs. CAR (April 16)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 36.08%
Preseason O/U: 66.5
Actual: 57
GM Pat Verbeek took his team harder into rebuild mode than some envisioned. Where there was once Trevor Zegras as a beacon towards the Ducks’ future, Zegras trade rumors popped up instead. That, in a nutshell, shows where Anaheim is at in the process of outlining its next chapter.
Remaining games: vs. CGY (April 12), @ LA (April 13), @ VGK (April 18)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 32.69%
Preseason O/U: 71
Actual: 51
The Blackhawks might have been slightly less terrible if Connor Bedard hadn’t missed almost six weeks with a fractured jaw. That hurt (in more ways than one). The Blackhawks don’t appear in any rush to rebuild, though so it will be interesting to see how highly the bookmakers project them for 2024-25.
Remaining games: vs. NSH (April 12), vs. CAR (April 14), @ VGK (April 16), @ LA (April 18)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 29.75%
Preseason O/U: 64.5
Actual: 47
San Jose overachieved at underachieving. That might be the best description for the Sharks this season.
Remaining games: vs. MIN (April 13), @ EDM (April 15), @ CGY (April 18)
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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