World

All-out war, or not, in the Middle East? Biden’s test at the most dangerous moment

Published

2 weeks ago

April 14, 2024

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“What next?” It’s a question anxiously asked too many times in the past six months.

And no doubt the question formed the crux of the late-night call between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Follow live: Iran launches attack on Israel

Iran’s spectacular drone and missile assault on Israel is truly unprecedented.

A region already reeling from the Hamas attacks and the Israeli retaliation on Gaza is being rocked again.

American leadership and leverage, tested repeatedly, is undergoing a bigger strain still.

This time though the consequence of President Biden’s test is all-out war, or not, in the Middle East. It is the scenario most feared since 7 October.

Without question, this moment – right now – is the most dangerous yet, by a long way.

A direct attack by Iran, from Iranian soil, against Israel is a red line crossed in Tel Aviv.

Iran’s trigger was another unprecedented moment and another red line crossed, on 1 April, when a missile landed on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria killing 16 people. The Israeli trigger for that? Iran’s malign regional behaviour, as they would see it.

Tit, tat, tit, tat. You can see how this spirals. It explains the grim faces of the US president and his officials in the White House situation room overnight.

Even though so many of the drones and missiles were intercepted and despite no mass casualty scenario, Israelis will feel profoundly vulnerable, and the Israeli government may feel compelled to retaliate.

Impressions and the re-establishment of deterrence count for a lot in the Middle East.

That is precisely why Iran hit back after the Damascus consulate attack. It’s also why Israel may be unable to ignore Tehran’s weekend wave of drones and missiles. Never in its history has Israel faced an aerial assault like this.

And of course, in the White House they know all this all too well. But we all know too that the US-Israeli relationship has been severely strained by Gaza.

President Biden’s test now is to balance the action and reaction of a nation facing a moment that will feel, internally, to be existential with the consequences of an all-out regional war.

Significant Jewish settler violence in the West Bank, Hezbollah attacks from southern Lebanon and the continued disaster in Gaza all risk compounding the chaos.

Iran’s actions were more than anyone had expected. An unprecedented and enormously risky attack on Israel. It was an extreme attempt to re-establish deterrence. That works both ways.

Just six months ago, days before 7 October, President Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan wrote “the region is quieter than it has been for decades… We have de-escalated crises in Gaza & restored direct diplomacy…”

He was spectacularly misguided.

World

Russian man arrested after two Ukrainians stabbed to death in Germany

Published

9 hours ago

April 29, 2024

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Russian man arrested after two Ukrainians stabbed to death in Germany

A Russian man has been arrested after two Ukrainian men were stabbed to death in southern Germany.

The two Ukrainians were killed at a shopping centre in the village of Murnau in Upper Bavaria.

They were 23 and 36 years old and lived in the southern German county of Garmisch-Partenkirchen.

Shortly after the killings on Saturday evening, the police arrested a 57-year-old Russian on suspicion of murder, German news agency DPA reported.

The names of the victims and the suspect were not released in line with German privacy rules. It is not clear if the three men knew each other.

More than one million Ukrainian refugees came to Germany after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The majority arrived in the first three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Germany’s federal statistical office.

By October 2022, Ukrainian citizens were the second largest foreign population in Germany after Turkish nationals.

Germany is also home to a significant Russian immigrant community and 2.5 million Russians of German ancestry who mostly moved to the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

World

Aid charity to resume operations in Gaza following killing of seven aid workers

Published

15 hours ago

April 29, 2024

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Aid charity to resume operations in Gaza following killing of seven aid workers

An aid group is to resume its work in Gaza four weeks after suspending operations following the killing of seven workers.

World Central Kitchen (WCK) says it will restart operations in the besieged strip on Monday, delivering food to “address widespread hunger”, including in the north.

It comes following the killing of the WCK workers in an Israeli military strike on 1 April.

Three British nationals, who were part of WCK’s security team, an Australian, a Polish national, an American-Canadian dual citizen, and a Palestinian, were killed in the strike.

An Israeli investigation found that incorrect assumptions, decision-making mistakes and violations of the rules of engagement had resulted in their deaths.

Middle East latest: Hamas releases hostage video

WCK suspended its operations in Gaza following their deaths. They had previously distributed more than 43 million meals in Gaza and accounted for more than 60% of all international non-governmental aid.

Erin Gore, the group’s chief executive, said the humanitarian situation in Gaza “remained dire”.

“We are restarting our operation with the same energy, dignity, and focus on feeding as many people as possible,” she said.

“We will continue to get as much food into Gaza, including northern Gaza, as possible – by land, air, or sea.”

She said despite assurances by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) of changes to their rules of operations in the wake of the workers’ deaths, their staff still faced the threat of being threatened or killed.

“We have been forced to make a decision: Stop feeding altogether during one of the worst hunger crises ever, ending our operation that accounted for 62% of all International non-governmental-organisation (NGO) aid, or keep feeding knowing that aid, aid workers and civilians are being intimidated and killed,” Ms Gore said.

“These are the hardest conversations, and we have considered all perspectives when deliberating.

“Ultimately, we decided we must keep feeding, continuing our mission of showing up to provide food to people during the toughest of times.”

Strikes on Rafah and Blinken’s visit

It comes as medics said 13 people had been killed in Israeli airstrikes on three houses in the southern city of Rafah on Monday.

The strikes on Rafah, where over a million people are sheltering from months of Israeli bombardment, came hours before Egypt was expected to host leaders of Hamas to discuss prospects for a ceasefire agreement with Israel.

On Sunday, Hamas officials said a delegation, led by Khalil al Hayya, the group’s deputy Gaza chief, would discuss a ceasefire proposal handed by Hamas to mediators from Qatar and Egypt, as well as Israel’s response.

Mediators, backed by the US, have stepped up their efforts to conclude a deal amid threats by Israel to invade Rafah.

Meanwhile, US secretary of state Antony Blinken is beginning his seventh diplomatic mission to the Middle East since the Israel-Hamas war began more than six months ago.

He will visit Saudi Arabia, where Arab and European foreign ministers have gathered in Riyadh for a meeting of the World Economic Forum, before making stops in Jordan and Israel on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In Jordan and Israel, Mr Blinken will focus largely on aid, meeting with various relief organisations, as well as officials in both countries, to underscore the urgent need for more humanitarian assistance into Gaza.

On Sunday, the IDF said the amount of aid going into Gaza had increased “significantly” and would be scaled up “even more” in the coming days.

IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “Getting aid to the people of Gaza is a top priority – because our war is against Hamas, not against the people of Gaza.”

World

Ireland pledging emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to UK in wake of Rwanda bill being passed

Published

1 day ago

April 28, 2024

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Ireland pledging emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to UK in wake of Rwanda bill being passed

Ireland is pledging emergency legislation enabling it to send asylum seekers back to the UK.

More than 80% of recent arrivals in the republic came via the land border with Northern Ireland, Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week.

Rishi Sunak told Sky News it showed the UK’s Rwanda scheme was already working as a deterrent after it finally became law last week.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister has said the threat of deportation to Rwanda is causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of the UK.

Micheal Martin said the policy was already affecting Ireland because people are “fearful” of staying in the UK.

The former taoiseach told The Daily Telegraph: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Simon Harris, Ireland’s latest leader, has asked Ms McEntee to “bring proposals to cabinet to amend existing law regarding the designation of safe ‘third countries’ and allowing the return of inadmissible international protection applicants to the UK”, a spokesman said.

Ms McEntee said she will be meeting UK Home Secretary James Cleverly in London on Monday.

“There are many reasons why we have seen an increase in migration towards Ireland,” she told RTE.

“My focus as minister for justice is making sure that we have an effective immigration structure and system.

“That’s why I’m introducing fast processing, that’s why I’ll have emergency legislation at cabinet this week to make sure that we can effectively return people to the UK, and that’s why I’ll be meeting with the home secretary to raise these issues on Monday.”

People are now “worried” about coming to the UK, Rishi Sunak has said.

He told Sky News: “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay here, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”

Mr Sunak said the comments from Irish politicians show that “illegal migration is a global challenge”.

“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe [they] will follow where the UK has led,” he said.

Shadow minister Wes Streeting said it was unlikely a Labour government would bring people back from Rwanda if some are sent there.

“Once people are settled in Rwanda, they’re settled in Rwanda,” he told Sky News, adding it was doubtful that Labour would “unpick that situation”.

Regarding illegal migration in general, he said it required “putting the money that’s gone to Rwanda into the National Crime Agency so we can have proper cross-border policing to tackle the criminal gangs, speeding up the processing of decision-making, making sure we’ve got serious returns agreements with other countries”.

He added: “Those are solutions that can work.”