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Smoke billows after Ukraine’s SBU drone strikes a refinery, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Ryazan, Ryazan Region, Russia, in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters, March 13, 2024. 

Video Obtained By Reuters | Via Reuters

Ukraine’s campaign of attacks against Russian oil refineries is demonstrating how relatively cheap drones that utilize artificial intelligence could pose a major threat to global energy markets.

Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank.

Ukraine’s capabilities are growing with its drones now demonstrating a substantially longer range. Earlier this month, Kyiv hit Russia’s third-largest oil refinery, Taneco, which is located up to 1,300 kilometers — roughly 800 miles — from the frontlines, according to JPMorgan.

Ukraine is increasingly using drones that are enabled with AI, which helps the weapons navigate and avoid jamming, according to the bank.

“The AI guidance also delivers strike precision, maximizing the impact of the strikes by targeting specific areas like distillation towers, repairs of which requires Western technology,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in the April report. “This makes the repairs costly and often require equipment that the country is not able to produce.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear Tuesday that the Biden administration is worried about the strikes in a rare airing of public disagreement with U.S. allies in Kyiv.

“Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”

The U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure out of concern that they could drive up crude oil prices and instigate retaliation from Moscow, three people familiar with the discussions told the Financial Times last month.

The losses to Russian refining capacity could worsen as Ukraine aims to build a full-fledge drone industry and produce a million units domestically this year, according to the JPMorgan report. If Kyiv is able to extend the drones’ range to 1,500 kilometers (about 932 miles), they could potentially hit 21 refineries with more than 4.4 million bpd of refined capacity, according to the report.

“There’s room for this to become a bigger problem, because we’ve come to count on Russian supply getting to the global market, which allows other non-Russian supply to go to other places,” said John Kilduff, an energy expert and founding partner at Again Capital.

The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein. The drones are cheap to produce compared to the millions of dollars in damage they can cause and could empower nonstate actors to challenge superior fighting forces, Brackett told clients in Friday note.

“These drones can easily and asymmetrically disrupt global seaborne trade,” Brackett wrote, warning that oil exporters such as Russia aren’t the only countries that need to be worried. Oil importers, like China and India, will now have to worry about disruptions to crude flows from drone attacks, he said.

Impact on oil, gasoline prices

Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes comes at the same time as tensions are running red hot in the Middle East, with OPEC member Iran and Israel now teetering on the brink of a direct confrontation.

U.S. crude oil has rallied nearly 20% this year, while the global benchmark Brent has gained 17% as the wars in Middle East and Eastern Europe rage against the backdrop of rising crude demand and tightening supply. Gasoline futures have surged about 33% since the year began.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, said the drone strikes are not a major issue for oil prices right now because the attacks on refineries are primarily affecting Russia’s production of diesel at a time when the market is already glutted.

But Russia is also major exporter of a gasoline feedstock called naphtha. If naphta markets were to tighten because of the attacks it could have an impact on gas prices and balances, said McNally, who served as a senior energy official in the George W. Bush administration.

Goldman Sachs said in a research note last month that the strikes are bullish for diesel prices, but the impact on crude oil is mixed. Outages can lead to reduced oil demand from refineries, which is bearish for prices. But the market is worried Ukraine could increasingly hit oil production and transportation infrastructure, which would weigh on Russian crude exports, according to Goldman.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the current strikes could have an indirect effect on oil markets. As Russian fuel exports decline due to the attacks, countries that rely on those exports then need to source fuel from refineries in other jurisdictions, Melek said. Those refiners need more crude to meet the demand which can stress oil supplies, he said.

Russian production already poses a problem for the Biden administration. Moscow has pledged to cut its oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter to meet its commitments to OPEC+.

Those cuts could push the price of Brent crude to $100 by September, which will put pressure on the Biden administration just before the presidential election, according to a JPMorgan report last month.

The investment bank expects U.S. gas prices to hit $4 per gallon by May, the highest level since the summer of 2022.

“There are few issues that terrify a sitting American president in an election year more than surging gasoline prices,” said Rapidan’s McNally.

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Mercedes-Benz’s Q1 2024 report shows revenues are down, but its share of EV sales is growing

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Mercedes-Benz's Q1 2024 report shows revenues are down, but its share of EV sales is growing

Mercedes-Benz joins a growing list of EU-based automakers publishing their Q1 2024 financial reports today, and the German brand is relaying a similar story of staggering profits.

Mercedes-Benz remains one of the most well-known automakers out of Germany and one of the leaders in luxury vehicles. As an automaker committed to electrification, we’ve seen Mercedes continue to expand its EQ line of BEVs, which now includes a revamped EQS sedan for 2025 (seen above).

The automaker also recently revealed the “G580 with EQ technology” – an all-electric version of the famed G Class, complete with four motors and the ability to complete tank turns (although it seems to have sacrificed Mercedes’ dedication to aerodynamics to stay true to the combustion-clad design that preceded it).

As you’ll see below, EV sales continue to grow in Mercedes-Benz’s portfolio (although there’s a slight catch). Still, the automaker’s Q1 2024 report shows a slight revenue drop and an even more significant gap in other notable categories.

  • Mercedes Q1 2024
  • Mercedes Q1 2024
  • Mercedes Q1 2024

Mercedes’ Q1 2024 numbers detail steady cash flow

Mercedes-Benz shared multiple detailed reports for Q1 2024 today. Revenues are down, but plenty of other metrics support the German automaker’s confidence that it can maintain its financial outlook for the year.

One of the most notable numbers is Mercedes’ €3.86 billion ($4.18 billion) in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in Q1 2024. That number saw a 30% drop compared to Q1 2023 (€5.5 billion). Mercedes-Benz Cars’ EBIT was also down, reporting €2.5 billion compared to €4.1 billion in Q1 2023. Those earnings contributed to an adjusted Return on Sales of 9.0% (down from 14.8% in Q1 2023)

The German automaker cited a temporary decline in volumes and model transitions in its Top-End segment, as well as higher lifecycle management costs to ” keep products at the cutting edge” as the reasoning behind the declining percentages.

Despite negative YOY earnings, Mercedes remains quite liquid on the wings of bolstered free cash flow. Per the release:

The Free Cash Flow from the Industrial Business in the first quarter reached €2.23 billion (Q1 2023: €2.16 billion), supported by an adjusted Cash Conversion rate of 1.0 at Mercedes-Benz Cars. The Net Liquidity from the Industrial Business rose by 6% to a strong and very comfortable level of €33.6 billion (end of 2023: €31.7 billion). This included a share buyback of approximately €300 million in the first quarter. The Group’s investments in property, plant and equipment in the first quarter totaled €0.7 billion (Q1 2023: €0.8 billion). Research and development expenditure fell to €2.2 billion (Q1 2023: €2.5 billion).

Mercedes stated that pricing remained high in Q1 2024, and the automaker has no intention of engaging in any discount wars to stay competitive in the market. Instead, it expects its top-end models to lead sales and help it reach its financial goals for the year as targeted.

Speaking of sales, both BEV and PHEV numbers were down year over year (-2% and -8%, respectively). However, the overall share of EV sales in Mercedes’ portfolio was up in Q1 2024 – 19.5% compared to 18.2% a year ago. Still, it’s important to note that PHEV sales led to those boosted sales percentages, not BEVs.

Looking ahead, Mercedes-Benz believes it can remain competitive in its given segments without folding on price cuts. Per Member of the Board of Management of Mercedes-Benz Group AG, Finance & Controlling/Mercedes-Benz Mobility, Harald Wilhelm:

Mercedes-Benz delivered a solid Free Cash Flow in the first quarter thanks to our disciplined go-to-market approach, our desirable products and despite the volatile economic environment and external challenges. While we remain vigilant about the global macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook, we confirm our full-year financial targets for 2024.

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Tesla Megapack to power new massive record-breaking 1.3 GWh battery system

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Tesla Megapack to power new massive record-breaking 1.3 GWh battery system

Tesla Megapack has been selected to power a massive new record-breaking 1,3 GWh battery system from Neoen in Australia.

This project is the second stage of the Collie Battery project, which is named after a town in Western Australia where the project is located.

As we previously reported, France’s Neoen is already building the first stage with Tesla Megapack 2XLs.

The first stage consists of 224 Tesla Megapack 2XL units for 219 MW / 877 MWh of capacity.

Today, Neoen announced that it has received a contract for the second stage, which is even going to be bigger. The company wrote in a press release:

Neoen, one of the world’s leading producers of exclusively renewable energy, has been awarded a 300 MW / 4-hour capacity services contract by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) in a competitive tender initiated by the Western Australian Coordinator of Energy. The service will be delivered by Stage 2 of Collie Battery sized at 341 MW / 1,363 MWh and consisting of 348 Tesla Megapack 2 XL units. The project is located near the town of Collie, on the country of the Wilman people of the Bibbulmun nation, in the Southwest region of Western Australia (WA). It will connect to Western Power’s new Palmer Terminal substation in the South-West Interconnected System (SWIS), a separate network to the one on the eastern coast of Australia.

With 348 Megapack 2 XL units and a capacity of 1.3 GWh, it is expected to become the new largest battery system in Australia and one of the biggest in the world.

Neoen confirmed that it has provided “notices to proceed to Tesla and construction contractor UGL.”

The second stage is expected to be operational in Q4 2025 and provide significant grid services to South-West Interconnected System (SWIS) with the ability to charge and discharge 20% of the average demand of the network.

Electrek’s Take

Despite increased competition, Tesla seems to still have strong demand for Megapack.

A 1.3 GWh project represents more than a quarter of Tesla’s new record-breaking quarterly Megapack deployment capacity.

However, that capacity is increasing fast as Tesla recently disclosed having deployed a new line at its Megafactory in Lathrop and it is also building a new Megafactory in China.

Tesla expects its energy storage business to continue to grow significantly and so far, it is delivering on this expectation.

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Volkswagen Group’s profits dropped 20% in Q1, but it remains confident in hitting 2024 targets

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Volkswagen Group's profits dropped 20% in Q1, but it remains confident in hitting 2024 targets

Volkswagen Group released its financial numbers for Q1 2024 today, following similar trends from other EU-based automakers. The numbers detail a slowing of sales and a drop in profits. Despite a 20% decrease, the Group remains optimistic that it will end the year at its financial targets.

Today’s Q1 2024 report from Volkswagen Group comes with little surprise, as the German automaker already gave the public an idea of its sales woes earlier this month when it shared its delivery numbers.

Deliveries for Q1 were up 3% overall year-over-year, but BEV sales fell. EV sales were up in China (+91% YOY) but stumbled in Volkswagen’s native Europe (-24%) and the US (-16%). It’s top-selling models in the first quarter were the ID.4/ID.5 (34,600 units), ID.3 (26,100), Audi Q4 e-tron (22,800), Skoda Enyaq (14,000), Audi Q8 e-tron (9,600), and VW ID.Buzz (7,000).

At the same time, Volkswagen Group shared that deliveries of Porsche’s lone EV, the Taycan, also fell by 54% in Q1 2024. Still, a bolstered 2025 model year Taycan is on the way alongside several new BEV models from Volkswagen that the auto conglomerate hopes will help it bounce back in 2024.

Today, we got a better idea of VW Group’s Q1 numbers beyond mere deliveries, which includes a 20% drop in profits.

  • Volkswagen Q1 2024
  • Volkswagen Q1 2024

Volkswagen’s sales and revenues dropped in Q1 2024

Per a detailed Q1 2024 report released by Volkswagen Group today, it is off to a slower start this year, although the German automaker states it anticipated this dip and relayed confidence going forward. Per VW Group CFO and COO Arno Antlitz:

As expected, our first quarter results show a slow start to the year. We remain confident of achieving our financial targets for 2024. A strong March, the solid order bank and the improving order intake in the past months are encouraging and should already have a positive impact in the second quarter. We expect additional momentum over the course of the year from the launch of more than 30 new models across all brands. At the same time the effects our efficiency programs will gradually unfold as the year progresses. In this context, it will be particularly important to vigorously counteract the increase in fixed costs and exercise investment discipline.

Notable figures include 75.5 billion euros in sales revenue, down from 76.2 billion in Q1 2023. Furthermore, VW Group reports EUR 4.6 billion in operating results, down 20% compared to a year ago with an operating margin of 6.1%. Volkswagen cites “lower sales volumes, an unfavorable country, brand and model mix as well as an increase in fixed costs” as the reasoning behind its negative Q1 2024 results.

In terms of overall sales, Asia-Pacific saw 2% growth while South America recorded record numbers, up 19% year over year. That said, sales in North America were down 10%, followed by the rest of the world at 5%, for a grand total of 2.1 million vehicles sold globally in Q1.

Despite many minuses on its Q1 2024 spreadsheet, Volkswagen Group anticipates a sales revenue increase of up to 5% and an operating margin between 7 and 7.5%, clearing the way for a clean 2024 outlook it remains confident in. Per the release:

In the Automotive Division, the Group assumes an investment ratio of between 13.5 percent and 14.5 percent in 2024. The automotive net cash flow for 2024 is expected to be between EUR 4.5 and EUR 6.5 billion. This will include in particular investments for the future and cash outflows from mergers and acquisitions for the battery business, which are a vital pillar of the Volkswagen Group’s transformation. Net liquidity in the Automotive Division is expected to be between EUR 39 billion and EUR 41 billion in 2024. It remains the Group’s goal to continue its solid financing and liquidity policy.

Challenges will arise in particular from the economic situation, the increasing intensity of competition, volatile commodity, energy and foreign exchange markets, and more stringent emissions-related requirements.

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