Leaving Arizona: Everything you need to know about the Coyotes moving to Salt Lake City
The Arizona Coyotes are on the verge of relocating to Salt Lake City.
The NHL board of governors has to approve the transaction, but all signs point to Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith acquiring the beleaguered franchise, which began its run in the desert back in 1996 following relocation from Winnipeg.
News about the Coyotes’ move hit hyperspeed in the past week after multiple reports of the NHL preparing two different schedules, one with the team in Arizona and another with the team in Utah. The news came just days after the Coyotes had released images of the new arena they hoped to build outside of Phoenix.
What happened? Why is the team moving now, after several other instances in which it should have but didn’t relocate? Here’s the full picture, as we understand it, regarding the past, present and future of the Arizona Coyotes, courtesy of ESPN’s Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski.
Why Utah?
While the Salt Lake City market has intrigued the NHL, the league’s decision to bring a team to that market is tied to having a deep-pocketed owner that wants one, and an arena ready to house one.
Ryan and Ashley Smith, owners of the NBA’s Utah Jazz, have been seeking an NHL team for a few years. In January, Smith Entertainment Group formally requested that the NHL initiate an expansion process and bring a team to Salt Lake City.
“The Utah expression of interest has been the most aggressive and has carried a lot of energy with it,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said at the NHL All-Star Game in February.
Ryan Smith had spent several years building a level of trust with Bettman. He had an arena in Delta Center, home of the Jazz, that had hosted NHL exhibition games. Smith told the NHL there would be renovations to make Delta Center more hockey-friendly if he was ever awarded a franchise.
Smith said in January he didn’t care how he acquired the team, saying: “Our goal is NHL in Utah. And I’ll leave the rest up to Gary.” But an NHL source told ESPN that Smith’s preference was to have an expansion team in Utah — and along with it, the chance to build one through an expansion draft.
His willingness to forgo that and accept a relocation was a key factor in the Coyotes moving to Salt Lake City.
Beyond the building and the owner, the NHL believes it’s a market with a ton of potential for hockey. It’s a winter sports town, and one that’s expected to host the 2034 Winter Olympics — a bid that could produce a new arena for the Jazz and the new NHL team. Salt Lake City has also been experiencing an economic boom: a 2024 report by the Milken Institute ranked Salt Lake City fourth among 403 U.S. cities in growth of jobs, wages and high-tech industry.
Like Arizona, having a team in Utah also fits nicely with the location of several other U.S.-based franchises in the Western Conference. — Wyshynski
How is the transaction going to work?
If approved, multiple sources told ESPN that Smith will pay between $1.2 and $1.3 billion for the team. Coyotes owner Alex Meruelo will receive $1 billion. The rest of the NHL’s owners will split between $200-$300 million as a relocation fee paid by Smith.
Sources have indicated that the total transaction is a complicated one, as it’s not a typical relocation. It’s expected the NHL will buy the Coyotes from Meruelo and sell what’s essentially a clean slate new team to Smith, who will retain the Coyotes’ players and hockey operations staff in the transaction.
This will allow Meruelo the chance to “restart” the Coyotes down the line.
Sources told ESPN that satisfying Meruelo was a key to the transaction. There was concern within the league as far back as NHL All-Star Weekend that Meruelo could wage a prolonged legal battle over relocation if the NHL decided it wanted the franchise moved, due to uncertainty about the Coyotes’ arena plans.
One way to satisfy Meruelo was to give him around $1 billion in the transaction. But Meruelo still wanted to own an NHL team in Arizona and still planned on building an arena for one. So the NHL had to find a creative way to keep the door open for Meruelo in Arizona while moving the current incarnation of the Coyotes.
Meruelo is still seeking to win an auction for a 95-acre parcel of land in north Phoenix, where he intends to build an arena, a practice facility, a theater, housing units and retail. The auction for that land is set for June 27.
It’s the latest arena plan for the team, which has been seeking a permanent home since the city of Glendale terminated its lease with the Coyotes at Gila River Arena following the 2021-22 season. The Coyotes moved to Mullett Arena while seeking an arena solution in Tempe. The Coyotes believed they had one with a 16,000-seat arena in a proposed $2.1 billion entertainment district, but voters rejected that plan in May 2023.
It was after the Tempe vote failed that the NHL began considering its options with Arizona. The league supported Meruelo’s attempt at winning the land auction and building his arena, but questions surrounding its eventual completion were numerous. That included cost, infrastructure and timeline — the Coyotes said shovels wouldn’t be in the ground until 2025, which meant the team would play in Mullett Arena until 2027, if not longer.
Thus, Bettman and the NHL came up with an ingenious way to satisfy their concerns and Meruelo’s needs. It’s expected that the final transaction will include a clause that allows Meruelo to “reactivate” the franchise as an expansion team — paying what’s expected to be a $1 billion expansion fee if that happens — between now and 2029 if his arena project is completed.
All of the team’s intellectual property — including those iconic Kachina jerseys — would remain with Meruelo. It’s an agreement that evokes the deal made with the city of Cleveland when the Browns moved to Baltimore in 1995.
If the project is completed, the NHL can return to a market where it clearly wants to have a team — witness the constant fights to “save” the Coyotes since their bankruptcy in 2009 — and have a state-of-the-art arena ready for an expansion team. If the project doesn’t come to pass, Meruelo walks away with $1 billion for having let the Coyotes move to Utah. — Wyshynski
Are all of the players, coaches and staff going to join the new franchise?
Every NHL team has personnel decisions they must consider in the offseason, and that would have been the case for the Coyotes whether they stayed in Arizona or relocated to Salt Lake City.
Per Cap Friendly, the team has 13 players who are under contract for next season. It’s a group that includes forwards such as Nick Bjugstad, Logan Cooley, Lawson Crouse, Clayton Keller, Matias Maccelli and Nick Schmaltz. Cooley was the third pick of the 2022 draft and is part of a core of homegrown players that includes Josh Doan, Dylan Guenther, Keller and Maccelli, among others.
They have three pending unrestricted free agents, including defenseman Travis Dermott, who could re-sign with the team or head elsewhere. They also have seven restricted free agents who are in need of a new contract. Five of those RFAs are defensemen, such as Sean Durzi, J.J. Moser and Juuso Valimaki.
All those players under contract could either remain with the franchise or get traded elsewhere, which is a scenario that every NHL franchise faces in the offseason.
Still, relocated teams go through changes, which was the case when the Atlanta Thrashers became the Winnipeg Jets after the 2010-11 season.
Of the 38 players that played at least one game for the Thrashers, there were 23 that remained with the club during their inaugural campaign in Winnipeg. It’s a group that included Nik Antropov, Dustin Byfuglien, Evander Kane, Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler.
Atlanta’s transition to Winnipeg also saw changes with the coaching staff and the front office. The Thrashers hired Craig Ramsay at the start of their last season in Atlanta only to have the team’s new ownership group move on from Ramsay and hire Claude Noel, who was the head coach of the Vancouver Canucks‘ AHL affiliate that was already in Winnipeg (the Manitoba Moose).
The Thrashers also hired Rick Dudley as their general manager in April 2010, but he was gone by June 2011. He was replaced with Kevin Cheveldayoff, who has been the only general manager the franchise has known since its time in Winnipeg.
So what’s the situation with the current coaching staff and front office that’s in place?
Coyotes coach Andre Tourigny is about to finish his third season with the club. Back in August, he signed a three-year extension, with general manager Bill Armstrong saying at the time, “He is an excellent coach, leader and communicator who has helped us establish a tremendous culture in our dressing room. Our players like him, respect him and compete hard for him.”
The club also signed assistant coach Mario Duhamel and goaltending coach Corey Schwab to multiyear extensions just days after announcing Tourigny’s new deal.
Less than a month later, the club announced it had signed Armstrong to a multiyear extension. Armstrong has been with the club for four seasons and has overseen an organization that has worked to develop one of the stronger farm systems in the NHL. Back in February, the team also gave contract extensions to director of amateur scouting Darryl Plandowski and associate director of amateur scouting Ryan Jankowski. — Clark
What are Coyotes players saying? What are other teams’ players saying?
The team’s players have been guarded publicly with their comments so far, waiting to learn more about how official the situation would become before opening up. They had, after all, answered questions when rumors of the franchising relocating cropped up in years past.
“We’ve just tried to focus on hockey and since I’ve played in Arizona, there’s always been a lot of rumors, so we try to do as best we can to try and focus on hockey,” Keller said. “It was definitely in our heads. You can say it’s not a distraction, but buddies, family, people are always texting and keep putting it in your head. [Tourigny] said we had another opportunity to deal with the same thing and learn from our past mistakes.”
Auston Matthews never suited up for the Coyotes. But if it weren’t for that Arizona-based team, the Scottsdale-raised Matthews may never have believed in pursuing the sport as a kid — a decision that’s led to Matthews becoming a first-overall pick, Hart Trophy winner and Rocket Richard winner as one of the league’s most prolific scorers.
He weighed in on a potential move by the Coyotes prior to the news this weekend that a change was imminent.
“Obviously, selfishly, growing up there with them was a big part of me getting into hockey,” Matthews said Thursday. “I’d love for them to figure it out, but you kind of understand the position the NHL’s in as well.”
Maple Leafs rookie Matthew Knies is another one of the few Arizona-bred players in the NHL, and expressed his disappointment last week about the Coyotes potentially moving elsewhere.
“Not too happy with the situation,” Knies said. “It’s pretty unfortunate. The Coyotes did a lot for me growing up, and I loved going to the games. It was a big reason as to why I got into hockey. But that kind of situation is out of my control. I’m hopeful that they can stay there, because it meant a lot to me, but I guess we’re going to have to see what happens.”
If it weren’t for the Coyotes, Knies said he might not have pursued playing hockey. Naturally he was concerned losing an NHL team in that area will impact how other kids view their opportunity in the sport, and was hopeful the Coyotes would stick.
“When I was growing up, [Arizona] wasn’t the hockey hotbed Colorado or Chicago or Detroit was,” he said. “But it was definitely growing, and you could see the potential there. The Coyotes were a big part of that, and so it’s definitely gotten a lot better. I know a lot of kids are starting to pick up a hockey stick now, and it’s just really good to see. So, again, hope they can stay there.” — Shilton
Will it be the Utah Coyotes, or a new team identity?
Even if there are actual coyotes in the state of Utah, it appears as if there is going to be a new name for the franchise.
Smith, who is also a co-owner of Real Salt Lake in MLS and the Utah Royals in the NWSL, took to social media on April 8 asking, “If an NHL team were to come to Utah, what should we name it?” The question was then followed by a link to a survey.
As of Saturday, the survey was no longer active.
Smith’s post on X generated more than 3 million views and over 1,000 responses. Some of the proposed team names were serious suggestions, while others were a bit more sardonic.
There were some who suggested the new team be called the Salt Lake Golden Eagles, an homage to the professional team that was there from 1969 through 1994 before they left town to become the Detroit Vipers.
Others suggested some winter-themed names such as the Utah Blizzard or the Utah Yeti. But there were some who wondered if that would work given that the Colorado Avalanche are in a neighboring state and have similar elements in their name and uniform design.
A few people chimed in with ideas such as the Utah Buzz, the Utah Hive, the Utah Stingers, the Utah Swarm and the Salt Lake City Swarm. Those are all nods to the state’s extensive relationship with bees. One of Utah’s nicknames is “The Beehive State.” The Western honey bee is the official insect of Utah, while a beehive is featured on the state flag, the state seal and Utah State Route road signs.
And yes, there were some who suggested that they keep Coyotes given there are coyotes in the state. But as noted above, the deal between Meruelo and the NHL is that Meruelo will be able to retain the team name and intellectual property in the hopes of “reactivating” the Coyotes franchise in the future.
There’s also the recent historical precedent that’s been set with relocated NHL teams and changing names. Five of the past six relocated teams have changed their names to something that was more regional in nature.
For example, the Colorado Rockies became the New Jersey Devils while the Quebec Nordiques turned into the Colorado Avalanche. It was the same for when the original Winnipeg Jets became the Coyotes, the Hartford Whalers were changed to the Carolina Hurricanes and the Atlanta Thrashers became the Winnipeg Jets once the NHL came back to Manitoba.
The only team of those six to relocate and keep part of its original name was when the Minnesota North Stars relocated to become the Dallas Stars. The franchise kept “Stars” due to Texas being known as “The Lone Star State.” — Clark
Where will the team play? Will it get a new arena in the future?
The plan right now is for the Utah team to play out of the Delta Center, a facility owned by Smith that is home to the NBA’s Jazz.
However, as ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reported, sources have said the NHL told the Smiths there are hockey-specific upgrades needed at Delta Center if it were to become the team’s permanent home.
The venue has hosted preseason NHL games in each of the past four seasons — primarily between L.A. and Vegas — but the current layout would limit sightlines for NHL games and prohibit the Smiths from selling the arena to 18,206-seat capacity (only 10,420 seats were sold for those NHL preseason games).
Given the limited amount of time before puck drop of the 2024-25 season, it’s not as if the Smiths would be expected to completely overhaul their facility overnight. But some alterations will be possible over the summer and more changes could be carried out in the next offseason.
Smith has government support on that front thanks to a bill passed in the Utah State Senate to help fund a renovated entertainment district downtown. That was in anticipation of an NHL franchise potentially relocating there, something to which Utah Gov. Spencer Cox has expressed — and had already given — his approval prior to the weekend’s news. — Shilton
What’s the future of the NHL in Arizona?
The NHL has never wavered about how it values the Arizona market. The league likes the population size, its television audience and its geography in relation to other U.S. teams in the Western Conference. There’s also been a significant youth hockey boom in that market during the franchise’s time in Arizona. NHL players like the Maple Leafs’ Matthews and Knies grew up rooting for the Coyotes.
Bettman has called the Coyotes “a victim of circumstance” when it comes to their struggles in the market, through ownership issues and their arena plights.
“We believe Arizona and particularly the greater Phoenix area is a good NHL market and a place we want to be,” he said in May 2023.
While leaving the door open for Meruelo to own an expansion franchise in a new arena was clearly a way to satisfy him in the relocation gambit, the fact remains that the NHL appears committed to bringing an expansion team back to Arizona. Bettman has been steadfast in saying that the NHL is not currently in an expansion mode, but cities like Houston and Atlanta are also showing significant interest. — Wyshynski
Timeline of the NHL’s Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes (1995-2024)
1995: The Winnipeg Jets are sold to Minnesota businessmen Steven Gluckstern and Richard Burke, who intended to move them to Minneapolis-St. Paul for the 1996-97 season. After being unable to work out a lease agreement in the Twin Cities, they instead opted to move the team to Phoenix.
1996: The now-Phoenix Coyotes play in America West Arena, home of the NBA’s Suns, in a facility that was suboptimal for hockey. Players on that inaugural team included Keith Tkachuk, Jeremy Roenick, Hall of Famer Mike Gartner, goalie Nikolai Khabibulin and Shane Doan, who played his rookie season with the Jets and then 20 seasons with the Coyotes.
2001: Burke, now the primary owner, sells the Coyotes to an ownership group that includes Phoenix-area developer Steve Ellman and NHL legend Wayne Gretzky, who was a part-owner and the team’s new president of hockey operations.
2003: After attempts to further retrofit America West Arena and build a new building in Scottsdale failed, Ellman turned his attention to West Valley. In 2001, he signed a lease agreement with the city of Glendale to build a new arena. On Dec. 27, 2003, the Coyotes played their first game at Glendale Arena, beginning a run of 18 seasons there. As attendance for the team fell from a high of 15,582 tickets distributed per game in 2005-06 to just 11,989 in 2009-10, the arena’s location away from where many Coyotes fans lived became a point of criticism.
2005: Jerry Moyes, a trucking magnate who was also a part-owner of Major League Baseball’s Arizona Diamondbacks, buys the Coyotes from Ellman. Gretzky becomes head coach of the team, a position he held for four seasons without a playoff berth.
2006: The Coyotes were set to host the 2006 NHL All-Star Game, which never happened due to the NHL players’ involvement in the 2006 Winter Olympics. The Coyotes would never host an All-Star Game or draft in their time in Arizona.
2009: Media reports revealed that the Coyotes were hemorrhaging money and being propped by up by the NHL. In May, Moyes put the team into bankruptcy with the intention of having Canadian billionaire Jim Balsillie, former CEO of BlackBerry creator Research In Motion, relocate the team to Hamilton in Ontario, Canada. The NHL stripped Moyes of his ownership authority. In bankruptcy hearing, the NHL put in a bid against that of Balsillie and argued that this bid, if accepted by the court, would have circumvented NHL rules. The court sided with the NHL, which took over the team and sought a new owner that would keep the franchise in Arizona.
2012: Under coach Dave Tippett, the Coyotes win their only division title and make their only conference final. After qualifying for the playoffs in their first four seasons in Phoenix, the Coyotes would make the playoff tournament only four times before relocating.
2013: After close calls with potential owners like Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, Chicago investor Matt Hulsizer, former San Jose Sharks owner Greg Jamison and “Ice Edge Holdings,” the NHL finally unloaded the Coyotes to an ownership collective called IceArizona and Renaissance Sports and Entertainment for a reported $225 million. That came with a 15-year lease with the city of Glendale that ended speculation that the team would relocate to Seattle.
2014: The team rebrands as the Arizona Coyotes. IceArizona sells a controlling interest in the Coyotes to hedge fund manager Andrew Barroway.
2015: The Glendale City Council votes 5-2 to end its 15-year agreement for the Coyotes to manage and play at Gila River Arena, opting for short-term leases at a reduced rate for the city.
2016: The Coyotes announce plans for an arena in Tempe for the 2019-20 season that would have created facilities for the Arizona State University hockey team. ASU pulls out of the deal in 2017.
2019: Barroway sells the majority of the Coyotes to billionaire Alex Meruelo, the first Latino owner in the NHL. Meruelo takes full control of the team in 2023.
2021: The city of Glendale and the Gila River Arena choose not to renew their operating agreement with the Coyotes beyond the 2021-22 season.
2022: The Coyotes move to Mullett Arena, a 5,000-seat facility on the campus of ASU and home to the school’s men’s hockey team, signing a three-year lease with options that carried through 2027. The team and the NHL called it a temporary move while the Coyotes attempted to secure a new arena site.
2023: Meruelo’s proposal to turn a Tempe landfill into a $2.1 billion arena and entertainment complex is defeated in a public vote, a result that was shocking for the franchise and the NHL. Bettman called it “terribly disappointing” and said “we are going to review with the Coyotes what the options might be going forward.”
2024: While Coyotes fans and players prepared for the team to bid on a parcel of land near Phoenix for a potential new arena in the summer, the possibility arose of Meruelo selling the franchise, with the NHL and the Smith Entertainment Group relocating it to Salt Lake City. — Wyshynski
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David Hale
The College Football Playoff committee has released its first top 25 ranking of the season, which is the sport’s version of Walmart opening its doors at midnight on Black Friday. Things are about to get ugly, and someone’s going to end up bloodied while fighting Oklahoma for a spot in the top 12. In other words, it’s the best time of year.
This year, the committee has said it is considering a new “record strength” metric, designed to provide some math-based guidance in the process and to soon replace “game control” as the country’s most hated made-up statistic.
Ten weeks into a season filled with a lot of chaos and few seemingly great teams, however, the committee needs all the help it can get. For example, just eight teams in the country have already beaten more than one of the committee’s current top 25 — and one of those eight teams is NC State. Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Pitt, Washington, Missouri and Tennessee — all ranked this week — are a combined 0-12 against other teams in the committee’s top 25. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked higher than 14th, and the Group of 5 doesn’t have a team ranked at all, making these rankings less about the coveted top 12 than a need to be in the top 10.
In other words, there’s a lot still in flux as we dive deeper into the final month of the season. But that means our anger toward the committee is just simmering for now, waiting for the rage to boil over in the weeks to come.
Still, a few schools have a pretty good case for outrage already.
In all the hubbub over last year’s final playoff rankings that left a trio of SEC teams out, what went overlooked was that BYU might have had more to be angry about than Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Two of those teams, at least, had taken a bad loss. Each of those teams had three losses. BYU, on the other hand, checked in on the committee’s final ranking behind each of them despite a 10-2 record and two close losses to solid teams.
So, certainly the committee would feel some compassion for the Cougars this year and consider the Cougars with a bit more optimism, right?
Ah, no.
Let’s take a look at some blind résumés.
Team A: No. 3 strength of record, No. 33 strength of schedule, 4-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 11 in the committee’s poll.
Team B: No. 4 strength of record, No. 45 strength of schedule, 3-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 13 in the committee’s poll.
Sure, Team A has a slight edge, but the résumés look pretty similar.
Well, Team A is the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. Surely, if another team’s résumé looks more or less the same, that team would be staring down a bye in the first round of the playoff, right?
Nope. Team B is BYU, and the Cougars sit behind three SEC teams with a loss, all three of which are ranked lower in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Given that BYU has a massive showdown with Texas Tech upcoming, perhaps the committee just punted on any tough decisions on the Cougars for this week. After all, given how much love the committee has shown the Big Ten in these rankings, punting would be a fitting play.
We get it. As a conference, the ACC might, in fact, just be an episode of “Punk’d” that Ashton Kutcher started in 2008, then got distracted and forgot to let everyone know it was a prank. The conference’s train wreck in Week 10 certainly showed up in these rankings — more on that in a moment — but it’s almost as if the committee just threw Louisville into the mix, deciding the Cardinals were guilty by association.
Let’s take another look at some blind résumés, shall we?
Team A: No. 10 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 13 team, lone loss vs. an unranked team.
Team B: No. 13 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, lone loss to committee’s No. 14 team.
This is basically a coin flip, though given the additional wins vs. high-level opponents and a better loss, it would be hard to argue against Team B, right? Add to that, Team B’s lone loss came in double overtime in a game when it outgained its opponent by 150 yards. Surely, you would be on Team B’s side now, right?
Well, not surprisingly, Team B is Louisville. Team A is Texas Tech, ranked seven spots higher at No. 8.
There seems to be a desire to write Miami off because of two losses in the past three games and given the strife the team seems to be enduring on offense, perhaps that’s wise.
But two things are supposed to be true of the committee’s evaluation process. One, the committee is not supposed to care when wins and losses happen. Losing in September isn’t better than losing in November. A loss is a loss. Second, the committee is not supposed to make assumptions about the future. Sure, Miami’s offense is a mess at the moment, but assuming that will result in future losses isn’t part of the deal.
And yet, putting Miami at No. 18 — eight full spots behind another two-loss team the Canes beat head-to-head — can only be explained by the vibes. Notre Dame’s season is rolling right along now. Miami has hit some stumbling blocks. Never mind the Canes are two late Carson Beck interceptions away from still being undefeated. Never mind that Miami has four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams, twice as many as any other two-loss team except Oklahoma. Never mind that Miami has that head-to-head against the No. 10 team in the committee’s rankings or that it walloped a Florida team that took No. 5 Georgia to the wire and actually beat No. 11 Texas. Never mind that Miami beat a then-ranked USF by 37.
Instead, the committee has assigned Miami to the scrap heap now — which is a shame because Miami would probably have done this to itself anyway, and it’s so much funnier when it happens in the last game of the season.
4. The Group of 5
A year ago, Boise State found its way into a first-round bye ahead of the champion of a Power 4 league, which was probably pretty embarrassing for that Power 4 league except that the ACC embarrasses itself often enough to be pretty well immune to shame.
The rules have changed this year. The top four conference champs aren’t guaranteed a first-round bye now. But that doesn’t seem to have stopped the committee from stacking the deck anyway, just to be safe.
Not one team outside the Power 4 found its way into these initial rankings, though the committee notes that Memphis currently is in the lead for the long Group of 5 playoff bid.
So, surely the Group of 5 should be pretty upset, right?
Yes, but not about being snubbed from the top-25 party. None of the leaders in the Group of 5 have a great case — certainly none like Boise State had a year ago. But Memphis? Really? The same team that lost by a touchdown to a UAB team had just fired its coach?
In the committee’s new guidance to consider record strength, there is an assumption that really bad losses are weighted heavily, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this time around.
North Texas has one loss to SP+ No. 27.
James Madison has one loss to SP+ No. 16 (and the No. 15 team in the committee’s rankings).
San Diego State has one loss to SP+ No. 73 has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
Memphis has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Tigers weren’t punished at all for a terrible loss.
5. The SEC
The latter half of the committee’s top 25 is usually the equivalent of the phone lines for a Finebaum episode — just a place where a lot of mediocre SEC folks hang out, patiently waiting for their turn. But this time, the committee has stuffed the bottom of the rankings with Big Ten teams — No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington — and that might actually matter in the long run.
One of the committee’s favored metrics is wins over ranked opponents. We’re dubious about how many Big Ten teams deserve a little number next to their name. The league still has four teams that have yet to win a conference game, and the bottom third is a complete dumpster fire. It’s easy to rack up some wins when half your conference schedule has already been embarrassed by UCLA’s interim coaching staff.
But the SEC — that’s where the real depth is. Nearly half the SEC’s conference games this season have been one-possession affairs. Mississippi State, a team that had gone nearly two years without an SEC win, already knocked off last year’s Big 12 champ. LSU, a team that fired its coach, has a win over last year’s ACC champ. Florida beat Texas. Putting a bunch of undeserving teams at the bottom of the rankings only serves to prop up the résumés of teams such as Oregon, which hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. And frankly, the committee is supposed to do that for the SEC, not the Big Ten.
Also angry: Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, No. 14, behind four two-loss teams), USF Bulls (6-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, unranked), Brian Kelly (just angry for other reasons).
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Andrea Adelson
Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the first rankings released Tuesday by the College Football Playoff selection committee, topping fellow unbeatens Indiana at No. 2 and Texas A&M at No. 3.
Three SEC teams followed the Aggies, with Alabama at No. 4, Georgia at No. 5 and Ole Miss at No. 6.
BYU, Texas Tech, Oregon and Notre Dame round out the top 10. The top ACC team is Virginia at No. 14. Every team in the top 25 came from a Power 4 conference, so the committee designated Memphis as the top team from the Group of 5.
The five highest-ranked conference champions will make the 12-team field, but there is a tweak to the format this year as the committee is using a straight seeding model. The top four teams in the final ranking, regardless of conference championship, will receive a first-round bye.
If the playoff were today, the first-round games would be: Memphis at Georgia; Virginia at Ole Miss; Notre Dame at BYU; and Oregon at Texas Tech.
“We had robust discussion about the three of them,” CFP committee chair Mack Rhoades, the athletic director at Baylor, said on ESPN’s rankings release show Tuesday night regarding the Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Aggies at the top of the board. “Obviously, all three are undefeated. … We really felt like that Ohio State and Indiana were close. When you look at the statistical data, both offensively and defensively, these are two teams that are both in the top five offensively and in the top five defensively, both with really good wins.
“But again, when we looked at tape, and we looked at metrics, we felt that Ohio State was a little bit better up front, on the offensive line. And we thought they were better defensively.”
The SEC led the way with nine teams ranked in the top 25, while the Big Ten had seven, including the Ducks, who elicited discussion about their top-10 ranking. The ACC had five on the list, and the Big 12 had three.
“It came up when we talked about Oregon,” Rhoades said in reference to the new straight-seeding model. “When you look at them in the top 10, our lowest ranked in terms of record strength. And so the committee had a lot of conversations — rigorous debate and conversations — about Oregon as a team.
THE FIRST 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET PROJECTION OF THE SEASON‼️
The committee selected Memphis as the best team from the remaining conferences. pic.twitter.com/EU6NCc33Ds
— ESPN (@espn) November 5, 2025
“We’re blessed to have three coaches in the room and looking at the tape. And when you looked at Oregon, they have great players at the skill positions. We felt that they were really good up front, both sides of the ball. Their one loss is to our No. 2-ranked team, in Indiana, and so, again, when we looked and evaluated Oregon, we really looked in terms of quality of team and how they looked on film.”
Despite having two losses, Notre Dame finds itself in position to make the CFP as an at-large team for the second straight season. Though the only notable win the Fighting Irish have is over No. 19 USC, both of their losses came in the closing minute, to No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 18 Miami, during the first two weeks of the season.
Despite having the same number of losses and the head-to-head win over the Irish, Miami is ranked No. 18 — eight spots lower than Notre Dame after losing 26-20 in overtime to SMU this past weekend. Though the Hurricanes have more notable victories, their losses have put them on the outside of the 12-team field, in what could be a repeat of last year.
“We’re sitting here looking at head to head, we’re looking at common opponents, we’re looking at schedule strength, we’re looking at record strength, we’re looking at all of the analytics,” Rhoades said of the evaluation process. “So, we truly try to look at each team on its own, and its body of work.”
Though Texas and quarterback Arch Manning have looked shaky at times over the course of the season, the Longhorns are ranked No. 11 after a big win over No. 16 Vanderbilt. They also beat Oklahoma 23-6 last month. Unlike Miami and Notre Dame, that head-to-head win is what is separating Texas and the No. 12 Sooners, both with the same 7-2 record.
Utah is ranked No. 13, with Virginia at No. 14 and Louisville at No. 15. The Cardinals have a win over Miami but lost to Virginia earlier this season.
Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Miami, USC, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, Pittsburgh and Tennessee round out the top 25. The Volunteers are the only three-loss team in the rankings.
The final CFP rankings will be announced Dec. 7, the day after conference championship games are played.
The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 19 and 20. The four quarterfinal games will be played at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The two semifinal games will take place at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 8 and 9, respectively.
The CFP National Championship is scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.
Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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