In a world that has grown more dangerous in recent years, the nightmare scenario of a Third World War is in the public consciousness.
Earlier this year, UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warned the world could be engulfed by wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in the next five years, and said we are moving “from a post-war to pre-war world”.
The relief felt at the end of the Cold War in the late ’80s has been replaced with increasing alarm at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there is outcry at the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
Sky News spoke to experts about whether World War Three is a possibility – and if we really are living in a “pre-war world”.
Here’s what they had to say…
‘The international order is fraying’
Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank
“The reassuring news is we are not heading towards the Third World War,” he says.
While there are conflicts in tensions in various theatres – Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific – these are all “separate and not connected”, according to Mr Lovatt.
“The Gaza war has been going on for six months and is driving regional escalation – Iran’s retaliation against Israel is just the latest example of this.”
There are implications for the international community, including the UK, for example in terms of the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and the impact that has on global trade.
There is, he says, a risk that British troops become sucked into a conflict in the Middle East.
“We need to see these risks in a certain context which is they do impact the UK but they are not existential risks.
“This is also happening at a time when the international order is fraying, is under considerable strain. This is something that we should be very troubled by.”
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7:28
‘UK must be prepared for war’
‘More likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war’
Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor
Given the scale of the turmoil shaking parts of the globe – in particular in Ukraine and the Middle East – the potential for a spark that ignites World War Three already exists.
That does not mean an escalation to global confrontation is inevitable but it is arguably more likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war.
A decision by Iran to launch an unprecedented barrage of missiles and drones against Israel has just raised the stakes even higher.
Israel has vowed to respond though its allies, including the UK and the US, are urging restraint especially as they helped ensure the vast majority of incoming munitions were blasted out of the sky before they could cause harm on the ground.
Should Israel choose to retaliate, the crisis could yet be contained if its return strike is limited and any further Iranian response triggered by such an attack is also curbed. But they are two big ifs.
Also, every time even limited military action is taken there is the risk of error or miscalculation that leads to uncontrolled escalation to regional war.
What happens in the Middle East also has a global impact, especially because Iran is backed by Russia and has close ties to China, while Israel’s strongest allies, led by the US, are predominately Western nations.
It means the crisis pitches authoritarian states against democracies – just as the concurrent war in Europe does.
Despite vows of Western support, Russia is slowly gaining ground in Ukraine. Western allies are failing to deliver the weapons and ammunition the Ukrainian military needs – leading to an almost inevitable retreat unless the balance of military strength on the ground changes.
Success by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine may embolden the Russian president, whose country is on a “total war” footing, to test the strength of the NATO alliance by invading a member state.
Again, this would create a direct war between authoritarian Moscow, armed by Iran, North Korea and also with assistance from China, against the West’s NATO alliance.
Evidence that military force has proved effective against Western powers could further harden China’s resolve to make good on a pledge to reunite the island of Taiwan with the mainland even if that means invading.
Such a move could also plunge Asia into conflict, again along the same dividing line of authoritarian states versus democracies.
‘Diversion of attention’
Edward R Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank
“I think people really need to understand what the North Atlantic Treaty is, which is the foundation of NATO,” he says.
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Mr Arnold argues that the public seem to believe that NATO’s Article 5 (the principle that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all) is automatic.
“That’s not the case or certainly does not have to be the case… escalation is not automatic and there are measures to de-escalate things.”
Looking to the situation in Ukraine, where NATO has been providing weapons and assistance, he says the risk of a miscommunication between the West and Russia has increased.
“The chances of a miscommunication where one ship accidentally fires on another, I think that goes up.
“We need to be really prepared about what that means.”
He also argues that in some ways the threat of a wider conflict with Russia is reducing at the moment. Kremlin forces are starting to make progress in Ukraine, but the quality of their troops has been degraded significantly such that they are not in a position to present a threat to NATO.
Mr Arnold continued: “Vladimir Putin will be looking pretty closely at what happens in the Middle East: how each nation responds and just the diversion of attention (from Ukraine).
“It’s all helping Putin at the moment because while focused on the Middle East we are not as focused as we have been on Ukraine.”
‘Donald Trump could undermine NATO’
Dr Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform thinktank
“It depends on your definition of World War Three. A possible conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to expand into a major military conflagration in the Middle East, with global implications.
“The US would almost certainly be drawn in on Israel’s side and other Western countries, including the UK, may do the same to a lesser extent.
“But their involvement would be limited and this would not be World War Three, not least as Russia can ill-afford to support Iran and because China is unlikely to.
“The impact of such a conflict on Europe would be primarily economic, through further disruption in energy flows and trade.
“The primary pathway to a World War Three scenario remains a direct Western clash with Russia. That scenario will be more likely if Donald Trump wins and undermines NATO, tempting Vladimir Putin into an attack on the Baltics.
“A clash with Russia would also be quite likely if Western forces become involved in supporting Ukraine in frontline combat roles.”
Three police officers have been shot and killed and another five wounded as they served an arrest warrant in North Carolina.
According to officials, the suspect was also shot dead.
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Pro-Palestinian students in the US have defied an order by university officials to dismantle a tent camp set up to protest Israel’s war in Gaza or face suspension.
College authorities at Columbia University in New York, sent students a letter on Monday demanding they sign a form agreeing to obey university policies until June 2025 or an earlier graduation, if they wish to finish the term in good standing.
If they failed to comply by 2pm, local time, the letter said, they would be suspended, pending further investigation and would not finish the term, the note said.
But those at the camp, now in its second week, voted nearly unanimously to stay put, NBC, Sky’s US partner, said.
Around 2.45pm, protesters were seen marching on the quad and chanting “Disclose! Divest! We will not slow, we will not rest!'”, NBC said.
More than 300 people and at least 120 tents remained.
Noting that exams are starting and graduation is coming up, the letter said: “We urge you to remove the encampment so that we do not deprive your fellow students, their families and friends of this momentous occasion.”
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Mahmoud Khalil, the protesters’ lead negotiator, said university representatives began passing out the notices at the encampment shortly after 10am on Monday.
Demonstrators set up tents in the centre of the Columbia campus in one of the early pro-Palestinian protests over the Israel-Hamas war and its mounting death toll, but dissent quickly spread to other colleges, sparking clashes with police and arrests.
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At least 25 killed in Israeli strikes on Rafah
More than 900 people have been arrested across the US since police in New York removed a pro-Palestinian protest encampment at Columbia, arresting more than 100 demonstrators as they did so, on 18 April.
Clashes have continued, with about 275 people arrested on Saturday at various campuses including Indiana University at Bloomington, Arizona State University and Washington University in St Louis.
On Sunday night and Monday, people at an encampment near George Washington University in the US capital, protested, breaching and dismantling barriers.
Protesters at Yale University set up a new encampment with dozens of tents on Sunday afternoon, nearly a week after police arrested nearly 50 demonstrators and cleared a similar camp.
More than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed during the Israel-Hamas war, according to local health officials, who say about two-thirds of the dead are women and children.
Israel declared war on Hamas and unleashed an air and ground offensive in Gaza in response to the attack on southern Israel on 7 October.
Hamas killed about 1,200 people in Israel and took another 250 hostages in its assault.
A four-month-old baby was among at least five people killed after dozens of tornadoes swept across central parts of the US.
Officials said at least 100 people were injured in Oklahoma, where four of the five died, as the extreme weather flattened buildings, ripped off roofing and threw vehicles down the street.
The destruction was extensive in Sulphur, a rural town of about 5,000 people, as experts said nearly 40 twisters are believed to have carved their way through central areas across the weekend.
It comes after extreme weather left a trail of destruction in other central areas on Friday.
Officials confirmed a man died from injuries sustained in Iowa from a tornado in Pottawattamie County.
Oklahoma governor Kevin Stitt was in Sulphur to assess the damage when he declared a disaster emergency for 12 counties.
“You just can’t believe the destruction. It seems like every business downtown has been destroyed,” he said.
“Definitely the most damage since I’ve been governor.”
He added about 30 people were injured in Sulphur, including some who were in a bar as the tornado struck, while thousands of residents were left without power.
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President Joe Biden has offered the full support of the federal government to help with the recovery efforts, the White House said in a statement.
Storm warnings for high winds, heavy rain and hail were issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) on Sunday for more than 47 million people stretching across a large part of the US from eastern Texas towards Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and Wisconsin.
The NWS reported 38 possible twisters struck the central belt with Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri enduring the worst of the weather.
At one point, more than seven million people were placed under tornado warnings.
The authorities said the tornado in Sulphur began in a city park before sweeping through the town, flipping cars and ripping the roofs and walls from buildings.
Sulphur resident Kelly Trussell said: “How do you rebuild it? This is complete devastation. It is crazy, you want to help but where do you start?”
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Tornado wreaks havoc in Nebraska on Friday
On Friday, a tornado forced an industrial building in Lancaster County, Nebraska, to collapse with 70 people inside.
Several people were trapped, but everyone was rescued, the authorities said. Three people had injuries which were not life-threatening.
The NWS later said there had been possibly two tornadoes which spent around an hour creeping through Nebraska, leaving behind carnage with winds of up to 165mph.