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A weaker than expected easing in the pace of pay rises means real earnings growth, when inflation is taken into account, is at its highest rate in almost two and a half years, according to the latest official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said average regular pay, excluding bonuses, stood at 6% in the three months to February compared with a year earlier.

In real terms, when the rate of inflation is reflected, pay growth by the same measure was 2.4% – its highest level since July 2021, the report said.

The base figure was above the 5.8% expected by economists and only down from the 6.1% sum registered the previous month.

There was no shift in the data which included bonuses on the same rolling three-month basis.

The figures, while welcome on the face of it for struggling households, could make for worrying reading at the Bank of England, which is assessing the timing for a long-awaited interest rate cut amid its battle against inflation.

It has wanted to see the pace of wage growth ease significantly for fear that high earnings risk stoking demand, and therefore prices, across the economy.

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The wider ONS figures showed a rise in the UK’s unemployment rate to 4.2% from 3.9% though the statistics body continued to place a big health warning on the number due to continuing work on making the employment data more reliable.

ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said: “Recent trends of falling vacancy numbers and slowing earnings growth have continued this month albeit at a reduced pace.

“But with the rate of inflation also slowing, real earnings growth has increased and is now at its highest rate in nearly two and a half years.

“At the same time, we are now seeing tentative signs that the jobs market is beginning to cool, with both a fall in the headline employment rate from our survey and a drop in the total number of people on payrolls from HMRC data.”

The Bank’s medicine of interest rate hikes since December 2021 to counter inflation have inflicted higher borrowing costs on businesses and consumers alike, exacerbating the financial pain from the very cost of living crisis it is trying to eradicate.

The latest inflation figures, due on Wednesday, are also expected to show further progress towards the Bank’s goals and the prospect of a rate cut from the current 5.25% level.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation slowed to an annual rate of 3.1% in March.

That is down from the current 3.4%.

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The latest data does not mean that overall prices are falling but rising at a slower pace than they were. Sky’s Ed Conway has more.

Energy price shifts are widely tipped to take CPI below the Bank’s 2% target soon after but policymakers have flagged concerns that elements of inflation will push back up later in the year.

It is a reason why economists and financial markets are split over the timing for a possible rate cut.

Some still see June while others predict the Bank will wait until August as so-called upside risks, such as through oil price spikes caused by the instability in the Middle East, are monitored.

LSEG platform data showed a shift in bets away from June in the wake of the ONS data.

The Bank of England’s action to tame price growth was the major factor behind the economy slipping into recession in the second half of last year.

Data since then has shown a return to meagre growth.

Paul Dales, chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, said of the crucial pay data: “Weaker activity suggests wage growth will ease more rapidly before long.

“The more marked weakening in the labour market in February than expected suggests that wage growth will continue to slow over the next six months even though the pace of decline appears to have eased.”

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Revealed: Partygate official’s role in Daily Telegraph sale

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Revealed: Partygate official’s role in Daily Telegraph sale

One of the government officials caught up in the Partygate scandal which engulfed Boris Johnson’s premiership is playing a key role in negotiating the future of The Daily Telegraph.

Sky News can reveal that former deputy cabinet secretary Helen MacNamara is among the advisors to RedBird IMI, the Abu Dhabi-backed vehicle whose acquisition of the broadsheet newspaper has effectively been blocked by the government in recent weeks.

Ms MacNamara, who was among those given fixed-penalty notices by police for attending lockdown parties in Downing Street during the COVID-19 pandemic, is working at Robey Warshaw, which is acing for RedBird IMI on its options for the onward sale of the media assets.

Her role at Robey Warshaw, where George Osborne, the former chancellor, is a partner, has not previously been disclosed, but sources close to the Telegraph process confirmed that she was actively involved in the discussions.

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Robey Warshaw has become one of the City’s most successful merger and takeover advisers since it was established by Sir Simon Robey, widely regarded as the most successful British investment banker of his generation.

Ms MacNamara was a highly regarded government official before leaving Whitehall in February 2021.

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Among her roles, she served for more than a decade at the Department for Culture, Media and Sport – the same ministry responsible for ruling on the fate of The Daily Telegraph as RedBird IMI negotiates over the structure of an auction expected to kick off within weeks.

Her reputation was, however, tainted by last year’s report by Sue Gray – a senior civil servant at the Cabinet Office who is now a key member of Sir Keir Starmer’s team – which concluded that Ms MacNamara had brought a karaoke machine to a leaving party which was prohibited under social distancing rules at the time.

During the Covid inquiry, it emerged that she had been the subject of misogynistic messages sent by Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s top aide, to the then prime minister.

After leaving the civil service, Ms McNamara joined the Premier League, where she ran its policy and corporate affairs functions before stepping down after just two years.

She is understood to have been working at Robey Warshaw for several months.

Ms MacNamara is no longer bound by restrictions imposed by Whitehall’s Advisory Committee on Business Appointments.

Her involvement in the Telegraph process adds to the number of politically connected figures who are embedded in talks about the fate of the traditionally Conservative-supporting newspaper.

As well as Mr Osborne, that list includes Nadhim Zahawi, the former chancellor, who has been advising the Telegraph’s long-standing owners, the Barclay family.

Sky News revealed earlier this month that RedBird IMI and the DCMS were discussing amendments to the statutory instrument which dictates various elements of the Telegraph’s governance during the period in which the Abu Dhabi-backed vehicle holds a call option that was supposed to convert into ownership of the Telegraph and Spectator magazine.

An announcement about a workable structure could be made in the coming days, the Financial Times reported last week.

RedBird IMI is understood to believe that The Spectator could be worth £100m or more as a ‘trophy asset’ but that that valuation would be impaired if the magazine is sold in the same transaction as the newspapers.

Earlier this month, Sky News revealed that Raine Group, best-known in Britain for its roles in recent deals involving Manchester United and Chelsea football clubs, and Robey Warshaw were being lined up to advise on the next phase of the Telegraph’s ownership.

RedBird IMI, which is part-owned by US-based RedBird and majority-owned by Abu Dhabi’s IMI – which is backed by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan – had argued that fears about its ownership of the Telegraph were unfounded.

The deal faced vehement opposition from Telegraph journalists and Conservative politicians from both houses of parliament.

RedBird IMI had sought to defuse controversy over the deal by offering legally binding assurances over editorial freedom, and in January restructured its bid to incorporate a new UK holding company which would own the Telegraph titles and Spectator magazine.

The takeover was rendered impossible, however, by the government’s adoption of legislative changes to prevent any ownership of British national newspapers by investors connected to foreign states.

Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, has said she is minded to refer the RedBird IMI takeover of the Telegraph titles to an in-depth inquiry by the Competition and Markets Authority.

The fate of the Telegraph has been up in the air for almost a year after Lloyds Banking Group seized control of its parent companies after the Barclays fell behind on debt repayments.

Since then, a number of bidders including the Daily Mail proprietor Lord Rothermere and the GB News shareholder Sir Paul Marshall have shown an interest in buying the titles.

Sky News revealed this month that Sir Paul was stepping down from the board of the parent company of GB News, the television news channel he has helped to bankroll, as he prepares a fresh bid for the Telegraph.

A trio of independent directors of the Telegraph’s holding company were parachuted in by Lloyds Banking Group last year after the lender seized control of the newspapers from their long-standing owners, the Barclay family.

However, the sale process was pre-empted by RedBird IMI repaying £1.16bn of loans owed by the Barclays to Lloyds, with £600m used to purchase the call option and the remainder as a loan secured against other family assets, including the online retailer Very Group.

Earlier this year, the independent directors appointed to oversee the sale of The Daily Telegraph were warned by Ms Frazer that the removal of the newspaper’s two most senior executives breached a government order – and that any subsequent transgression could result in a multimillion pound fine.

RedBird IMI, Robey Warshaw and the DCMS declined to comment.

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Getir ends European expansion with 1,500 UK job losses expected

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Getir ends European expansion with 1,500 UK job losses expected

Getir, the grocery delivery app, has abandoned a European expansion that is set to result in the loss of about 1,500 jobs in the UK.

Sky News had previously revealed that the Turkey-based company, which means “to bring” in Turkish, had successfully raised money from investors to fund its withdrawals from the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.

It had already departed other countries including Italy and Spain.

The exits were prompted by growing losses linked to the company’s rapid expansion.

Its UK competitors include Deliveroo and DoorDash.

The restructuring will leave Getir, which had a peak value of $12bn at the height of pandemic-linked demand, as a business focused on its domestic market.

Getir said it was to retain its US arm FreshDirect – only bought a few months ago.

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The company was yet to confirm exactly how many were to lose their jobs across the UK operation.

It is understood that it employs up to 1,500 people. They include warehouse staff, managers and riders.

Dejan Kulusevski of Tottenham Hotspur during trainin.
Pic: Alex Morton/Tottenham Hotspur FC/Shutterstock
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Getir’s commercial partnerships include a sponsorship deal with Tottenham Hotspur. Pic: Pic: Alex Morton/Tottenham Hotspur FC/Shutterstock

In a statement on Monday, Getir said its non-Turkish business was accounting for only 7% of its revenues.

“Getir has raised a new investment round, led by Mubadala and G Squared.

“Getir will utilize these funds to bolster its competitive position in its core food and grocery delivery businesses in Turkey.

“Getir expresses its sincere appreciation for the dedication and hard work of all its employees in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and the US,” it concluded.

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UK wet weather could push up price of bread, beer and biscuits

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UK wet weather could push up price of bread, beer and biscuits

The cost of bread, biscuits and beer could increase this year due to the impact of the unusually wet autumn and winter on UK harvests.

Research suggests that production of wheat, oats, barley and oilseed rape could drop by four million tonnes (17.5%) compared with 2023.

The wet weather has resulted in lower levels of planting, while flooding and storms over winter caused farmers more losses.

The predictions come just as the rate of price increases on many food items begins to slow as inflation falls.

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The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) analysed forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) and government yield data.

It found a “real risk” of beer, biscuits and bread becoming more expensive if the poor harvest increases costs for producers, according to its lead analyst Tom Lancaster.

Beer prices could be affected because the wet weather is still disrupting the planting of spring crops such as barley, the ECIU said.

And potatoes might also see a price hike in the coming months, with growers warning of a major shortage in the autumn due to persistent wet weather.

Planting of this year’s potato crop has been delayed across much of northern Europe.

“It’s had a massive impact on us,” said Lincolnshire farmer Colin Chappell.

“We went through the winter with virtually nothing viable drilled, and while it’s now dry enough to plant some fields some of them are so bad I don’t think they’ll get drilled this year. The situation is very hit and miss.”

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said recently that extreme weather was one of the biggest dangers to UK food security.

Warmer and wetter winters similar are predicted to become more common as the climate warms.

Pic: iStock
Image:
Trouble planting barley could feed through to a more costly pint. Pic: iStock

Drop in production could be more than five million tonnes

The total drop in production could even be more than five million tonnes (21.2%) when compared with the average harvest for 2015-2023.

Wheat production could be particularly hard hit, according to the research, with an estimated fall of 26.5% compared with last year.

It’s because the milling wheat used for bread has higher quality requirements that will be harder for farmers to achieve with wet weather.

The owner of Kingsmill and Ryvita, Associated British Foods, warned last week of potential price hikes if the cost of grains in the UK aren’t offset by bigger harvests abroad.

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The ECIU’s Tom Lancaster said the government’s green farming schemes are vital in “helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts”.

With half of food coming from abroad, he said foreign farmers would also need support.

“Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security,” he added.

William Kendall, the farmer behind Green & Blacks chocolate, said “regenerative farming methods” were also important as they “greatly enhance the soil’s capacity to hold water and therefore prevent saturation”.

“Not only does this mean better crops, produced at a lower cost for the farmer,” he said, “but it ensures that the chances of the flash flooding downstream we have seen this winter are greatly diminished”.

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