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The UK economy is going to grow less than expected this year – with the International Monetary Fund warning the country will remain the second worst performer in the G7.

Newly revised forecasts indicate the UK’s gross domestic product will expand by just 0.5% in 2024 – a slight downgrade from previous estimates in January – compared with global growth of 3.2%.

However, UK GDP is tipped to increase by 1.5% in 2025 – making it the third-best performer among G7 nations – as households recover following a prolonged cost of living crisis.

According to the IMF, inflation in the British economy will remain at about 2.5% for the rest of this year but fall towards the Bank of England’s target of 2% next year.

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When looked at per head – with output split across the UK’s population – GDP flatlines, with no growth at all for 2024 and 1.1% in 2025.

This metric gives a better sense of living standards and how the economy feels for individuals by adjusting for the UK’s growing population with record legal immigration flows.

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According to the IMF, the global economy has been “remarkably resilient” over the past two years – but the escalating conflict in the Middle East could push up food and energy prices around the world.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s director of research, said: “Yet, despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops.”

The IMF believes lower-income countries would be harder hit if food, energy and transport prices rose.

While negative risks include a slow recovery of China’s troubled property sector, economists believe the outlook could be improved if elections being held around the world lead to tax cuts and a short-term boost to activity.

Attendees walk inside an atrium at the 2022 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
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Overall, global output is expected to grow by 3.2% this year – an 0.1 percentage point rise from its previous report in January.

Both the Conservative government and Labour opposition have staked their successes on a growing economy.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made economic growth one of his five key priorities at the start of 2023 – but the UK entered a recession late last year.

Labour is hoping more growth will allow for greater tax takes and generate money to fund increased public service spending.

It has adopted the same rules on borrowing as the Tories and said it will not grow debt.

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A HM Treasury spokesperson said: “The forecast for growth in the medium term is optimistic, but like all our peers, the UK’s growth in the short term has been impacted by higher interest rates, with Germany, France and Italy all experiencing larger downgrades than the UK.

“Today’s report shows we are winning the battle against high inflation, with the IMF forecasting that it will fall much faster than previously expected.

“With inflation falling, wages rising, and the economy turning a corner, we have been able to lower taxes for 29 million people, as part of our plan to reward work and grow the economy.”

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WH Smith buyer ‘faces 12-month ban’ on mass shop closures

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WH Smith buyer 'faces 12-month ban' on mass shop closures

The new owner of WH Smith’s high street chain has effectively been barred from launching a wave of mass store closures for at least 12 months amid plans for rapid restructurings at two other retailers it owns.

Sky News has learnt that WH Smith would have the right to cancel a year-long transitional services agreement (TSA) put in place with Modella Capital – which struck a deal to acquire the business in March – if it launched a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) before the first anniversary of the transaction’s completion.

The clause in the TSA, which enables Modella Capital to continue using WH Smith’s systems after it takes ownership, is significant, according to retail insiders.

WH Smith agreed to sell its 480 high street shops to Modella in a £76m deal, ending 233 years of high street history.

Modella plans to rebrand the chain under the name TG Jones after it takes control.

In recent weeks, Sky News has revealed plans drawn up by Modella to launch CVAs at both Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop, which it has owned for nine and three months respectively.

Both of those restructuring processes have put significant numbers of stores at risk, and industry executives say that, over time, a sizeable part of the WH Smith high street estate could also be at risk.

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A spokesman for Modella said: “We have a number of exciting plans for the future of TGJones.

“A CVA is not on the agenda, as it is a solvent business.”

WH Smith, which will become a pure-play travel retailer once the Modella deal completes, declined to comment further ahead of the completion of the sale.

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill, two of Britain’s leading bread producers, are in talks about a historic merger amid a decades-long decline in the sale of supermarket loaves.

Sky News has learnt that Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, and Hovis, which is owned by investment firm Endless, have been involved in prolonged discussions about a combination of the two businesses.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were ongoing, but that there was no certainty that a deal would be finalised.

Bankers are said to be working with both sides on the talks about a transaction.

A deal could be structured as an acquisition of Hovis by ABF, according to analysts, although details about the mechanics of a merger or the valuations attached to the two businesses were unclear this weekend.

ABF is also said to be exploring other options for the future of Allied Bakeries which do not include a deal with Hovis.

If completed, a merger would unite two of Britain’s best-known ambient food brands, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning strength of man.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair the bread industry’s financial health in recent decades.

The impact of the war in Ukraine on wheat and flour prices has been among the factors increasing inflationary pressures on bread producers, according to the most recent set of accounts for Hovis filed at Companies House last year.

The overall UK bakery market is said to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

The principal obstacle facing a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis would reside in its consequences for competition in the UK market.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector in the UK, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group a larger share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain larger because of the breadth of its product range.

Nevertheless, reducing the number of major supermarket bread suppliers from three to two would be a test of the Competition and Markets Authority’s approach to such industry-reshaping mergers at a time when the watchdog is under intense government scrutiny.

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In January, the government removed the CMA chairman, Marcus Bokkerink, as part of a push to reorient Britain’s economic regulators around growth-focused objectives.

An industry insider suggested that a joint venture involving the distribution networks of Hovis and Kingsmill was a possible, although less likely, alternative to a full-blown merger of the companies.

They added that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of cost savings from such a tie-up.

In its interim results announcement this week, ABF said the performance of Allied Bakeries had continued to struggle.

“Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market,” it said.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we expect to provide an update in [the second half of] 2025.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF described the losses at Allied as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Allied also owns Speedibake, an own-label bread manufacturer.

Hovis has been owned by Endless, a prominent investor in British businesses, since 2020, having previously been owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites and its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF and Endless both declined to comment.

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Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

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Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

Aston Martin is steering a path towards a twin-pronged pay row with shareholders as it grapples with the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on car manufacturers.

Sky News can reveal that the influential proxy voting adviser ISS is urging investors to vote against both of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings’ remuneration votes at next week’s annual general meeting.

The pay policy vote, which is binding on the company, has attracted opposition from ISS because it proposes significant increases to potential bonus awards to Adrian Hallmark, the company’s new chief executive.

“Concerns are raised regarding the increased bonus maximums, which are built upon competitively[1]positioned salary levels and do not appear appropriate given the company’s recent performance,” ISS said in a report to clients.

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Aston Martin is also facing a meaningful vote against its pay report for last year – which is on an advisory basis only – because of the salaries awarded to Mr Hallmark and other executive directors.

The company’s shares have nearly halved in the last year, and it now has a market value of little more than £660m.

Despite the ISS recommendation, Aston Martin will win the vote by virtue of chairman Lawrence Stroll’s 33% shareholding.

The luxury car manufacturer has had a torrid time as a public company and now faces the headwinds of President Trump’s tariffs blitz.

This week it said it would limit exports to the US to offset the impact of the policy.

Aston Martin did not respond to a request for comment ahead of next Wednesday’s AGM.

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