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The 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs are here! It took to the final two games of the regular season to determine final seeding for the bracket, but with the puck ready to drop on our first playoff action on Saturday, it’s time for our jumbo-sized preview.

We’ve got all the angles covered to get you ready for the playoffs as ESPN hockey reporters Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton take a look at each of the 16 postseason teams, offering the reasons each team could win it all, along with the (potentially) biggest flaws, players to watch and a bold prediction for every contender.

Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metropolitan playoff brackets were written by Shilton, while Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific clubs. Also note that wild-card teams are listed according to the playoff bracket in which they’re playing (so the Nashville Predators are in the Pacific, for instance).

Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey.

Jump to a team:
Atlantic: FLA | BOS
TOR | TB
Metro: NYR | CAR
NYI | WSH
Central: DAL | WPG
COL | LA
Pacific: VAN | EDM
VGK | NSH

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2:02

The storylines to watch for in the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Greg Wyshynski breaks down all you need to know going into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Record: 52-24-6, 110 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Florida was an 11th hour addition to the postseason field last year and wound up going all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. This year’s Panthers have been anything but underdogs, and their chances of returning to the Final are better than ever. Florida ran it back this season with nearly the same roster intact — including 15 skaters from that Cup Final lineup — and have since added more experience with Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola among others.

Florida’s real strength though comes through its star performers, and those top-tier skaters can do serious damage. Sam Reinhart had a career year picking up 52 goals and 92 points, Aleksander Barkov remains an outstanding two-way center, Matthew Tkachuk found his feisty form again and a rejuvenated Sergei Bobrovsky is Florida’s game-changer in the crease. Confidence? The Panthers should be full of it.

Biggest flaws: Florida has top-end scoring talent. But will it make them too top-heavy? After Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe (with 33 goals) and Tkachuk (with 26), there’s a drop-off around who’s putting pucks in the net. The Panthers don’t have a standout offensive-defenseman (Gustav Forsling leads the way there with 10 goals and 38 points) and could be exposed in the playoffs if their elite skaters are neutralized and there’s no one behind them to answer the scoring bell.

The Panthers were middle-of-the-pack this season offensively (averaging 3.21 goals per game, 14th overall) and there’s a scoring premium in the playoffs for every club regardless of regular-season success.

Player to watch: Aleksander Barkov. There are few players in the league with Barkov’s unique skill set. He can win key face-offs, break up passes and execute in seemingly small areas that can make or break a team’s outcome. This is when Barkov should be his most powerful.

Bold prediction: Florida barely survives a first-round series that goes the distance, and fatigue weighs heavily as they’re quickly ousted from the second round in five games.


Record: 47-20-15, 109 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Bruins showed again this season they’re a resilient bunch, grappling with the loss of key players (i.e. Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci), transitioning to a new leadership group (led by newly anointed captain Brad Marchand) and, despite being among the NHL’s older teams, still staying on pace with the younger crowd. The Bruins boast a deep lineup on both sides of the puck that goes well beyond their stars — like Marchand, David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy. Coach Jim Montgomery will have an enviable amount of options to choose from when formulating Boston’s attack.

Boston also secured home ice advantage to start the postseason, and the local help alone can be an advantage. The Bruins didn’t tap into it last season — losing in the first round to Florida — but should have learned plenty from their prior disappointment. The Bruins are aware their contending window could snap shut at any time. They squandered a Presidents’ Trophy winning season a year ago by falling flat in the playoffs. That’s motivation enough to fuel Boston’s next chapter.

Biggest flaws: The Bruins have had issues closing out games. Boston is tied for the league lead in overtime or shootout losses (with eight) when leading after two periods. It’s a damning statistic, and Montgomery has talked throughout the season about Boston finding ways to “push through” even when tired at the end of a game. That’s especially important in the playoffs when overtime can extend for hours.

Speaking of emotion, will the Bruins carry any demons from their past failure into this postseason? Boston has repeatedly handled questions about its first-round flop last spring. It’s on the veterans who went through that to ensure there’s no lingering effects impacting how Boston goes about their business from here on out.

Player to watch: David Pastrnak. Boston’s stars must be stars. And there is no one who can rise to the occasion for the Bruins quite like Pastrnak. Whether it’s scoring a critical goal, elevating his linemates or creating a matchup nightmare, Pastrnak is Boston’s jack-of-all-trades who will lead the charge through a tough first-round slog — and possibly well beyond it.

Bold prediction: Boston gets outworked (again) in the first round and can’t match the intensity of a hungrier opponent. The Bruins fall in six games and head into another long offseason to think about making major changes.


Record: 46-26-10, 102 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Toronto took its time finding a sweet spot, where all the elements from consistent scoring, to stable goaltending, to solid defense came together and steered the Leafs closer to their full potential. That it happened late in the year, right before the playoffs? Well, that just might be Toronto’s secret sauce.

Unlike seasons past, where the Leafs could coast at times on the goal scoring prowess of Auston Matthews or the playmaking magic of Mitch Marner, Toronto has successfully weathered adversity to emerge as perhaps the strongest collective version of themselves. Sure, GM Brad Treliving actively added some sandpaper to the lineup with Ryan Reaves and a big-bodied defenseman in Joel Edmundson, but it’s the overall grit Toronto has earned throughout the year that should help in the postseason.

Another Leafs’ edge? Their first line — helmed by Hart Trophy contender Matthews — has finally found its rhythm. After months of tinkering, Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi have combined with Matthews to make their unit elite. That’s given coach Sheldon Keefe the opportunity to spread out some of the other top skaters — like Marner and William Nylander — so Toronto isn’t as vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of its star performers. Nicholas Robertson has been improving up front lately, and so has Matthew Knies. The Leafs were felled by a lack of postseason scoring in the past, and if they’ve got that covered now, it could carry them well beyond one round.

Biggest flaws: Toronto has question marks on defense — including who, exactly, will actually be in the six-man rotation come playoffs. TJ Brodie, once a top-pairing staple, has slipped down the depth chart, and Keefe’s been regularly re-working his backend to see what sticks. Toronto has averaged 3.13 goals-against this season and nearly 30 shots-against while struggling to defend off the rush. In a tight-checking postseason contest when desperation is at its peak, Toronto’s defense could be exposed if it can’t find the right mix of players to handle the job ahead.

Player to watch: Ilya Samsonov. Toronto’s starter has been through the ringer and came out the other side playing some of his best hockey. The Leafs can only hope Samsonov stays on that path when the playoffs begin. He projects to be their starter in the first round, with rookie Joseph Woll looking over his shoulder, ready to take over.

Bold prediction: Toronto escapes the first round and then explodes with a second-round sweep. The Leafs reach their first Stanley Cup Final since 1967 and finally win it all in a dramatic Game 7 victory.


Record: 45-29-8, 98 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Tampa Bay has an unparalleled playoff pedigree, and that’s why the Lightning can never be counted out of contending for a Stanley Cup. Yes, the Lightning faltered in the first-round last year, but that’s still the exception to their rule. Before that, it was three straight trips to a Cup Final, with two victories. Tampa Bay can turn it on when it’s time to go.

The Lightning have also woven in some fresh bodies (namely Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba) and remained fairly healthy, so strong chemistry could build up over time. The results since early March speak for themselves — Tampa Bay is averaging four goals per game (best in the league), is top-10 in goals against, top-five on the power play and their goaltending under Andrei Vasilevskiy is elite once more (.910 SV%, 2.61 GAA). Oh, and Nikita Kucherov? He leads the league in points with 144 and will be a momentum-shifting, series-defining threat.

Biggest flaws: Tampa Bay was dealt a tough blow when top-pairing defenseman Mikhail Sergachev suffered a broken leg in February. He won’t return unless the Lightning go deep into the playoffs. Sergachev’s absence has left the blue line exposed.

Victor Hedman is carrying their group, but it now includes more up-and-comers (like Nick Perbix and Emil Lilleberg) than the established skaters who have helped the team win in the past. Dumba’s been a fine third-pairing guy, but it’ll take more than just okay for the Lightning to not be drowned by defensive problems.

Player to watch: Brayden Point. While it’s Kucherov gathering the points (and accolades) this season, Point has quietly had a phenomenal season of his own with 46 goals and 90 points. Having Point healthy and rolling like he is now is a major flex for the Lightning and adds to their depth scoring capabilities.

Bold prediction: Kucherov is held off the scoresheet through Tampa Bay’s first two games, and the Lightning get knocked out in the first round a second consecutive time.

METRO DIVISION

Record: 55-23-4, 114 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: New York knows how it feels to fall short. It happened two years ago in the Eastern Conference finals. It happened again last season in the first round. Those disappointments led to a coaching change and roster turnover and to a battle-tested New York that became this season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners.

How did the Rangers get there? By becoming one of the league’s elite offensive squads. Artemi Panarin — who tallied just two assists in that first-round loss against New Jersey last spring — exploded with a 120-point regular season, Chris Kreider popped in 39 goals and Adam Fox is a point-per-game skater on the backend. New York’s depth is stronger, too, particularly since adding Alex Wennberg at the deadline to fill their third-line center role. Rookie Matt Rempe gives the Rangers some needed size and toughness. All that, along with an excellent goaltending tandem in Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick, gives New York a superb opportunity to reach a Stanley Cup Final.

Biggest flaws: The Rangers have had their issues structurally and defensively this season. There were stretches around the midseason where New York was bafflingly poor in its own end, prone to turnovers and generally playing a dangerous game of hot potato with the puck. The Rangers are at their best playing a collective team defense. When that’s lacking, things can go south quickly. Shesterkin and Quick are good, but they can’t be left hung out to dry, either.

Being the Presidents’ Trophy winner has not, historically, led to strong results in the playoffs. The Rangers have their own demons (as mentioned above) from lackluster showings on the game’s biggest stage. How the Rangers push past those potential barriers will help determine their playoff success.

Player to watch: Artemi Panarin. It’s time for Panarin to close the book on last season’s awful playoff performance by writing a fresh new chapter — this one centered on his ability to dominate opponents. That’s how New York will stretch this postseason out for weeks to come.

Bold prediction: New York’s stars turn up in the first round, but their depth fails to match, and a hungrier Washington team ousts the Presidents’ Trophy winners in a dramatic Game 7 finale.

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1:25

The curse of the NHL’s Presidents’ Trophy

Check out the numbers behind recent Presidents’ Trophy winners and how they’ve fared en route to the Stanley Cup.


Record: 52-23-7, 111 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Carolina has waited in the wings long enough. The Hurricanes are perennial contenders and then don’t quite live up to playoff expectations, like in last season’s Eastern Conference finals sweep against Florida. Well, consider this Carolina’s time to shine. The Hurricanes are built to go all the way in every phase. Jake Guentzel has been a great addition to the lineup post-deadline, Sebastian Aho is a bonafide star averaging well over a point-per-game, Seth Jarvis has come to life with a 33-goal effort and Andrei Svechnikov made up for lost time with 52 points in 59 games. There’s a strong blueline led by Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns to go along with complementary defensive performances throughout the Hurricanes’ lineup.

Carolina is also dynamic on special teams, owning the second-ranked power play (26.9%) and top penalty kill (86.4%) in the regular season. That combination alone is a terrifying edge in their favor. The Hurricanes goaltending has been a source of strength, too. Frederik Andersen returned from his blood clotting issue in fine form (13-2-0, .932 SV%, 1.84 GAA) and rookie Pyotr Kochetkov has provided terrific showings in the crease.

Biggest flaws: The Hurricanes have to be careful with Andersen. While the veteran has been strong following his recovery, there’s no denying Andersen’s history of injuries. If Carolina expects to go far, it will need a solid tandem in place to lean on, and Andersen should be part of it. But if Andersen were to miss games, would Kochetkov survive carrying the load on a long postseason run? The Hurricanes’ options to help Kochetkov in that regard are fairly limited. Depth, in all facets, can be the difference between winning and losing a tight series. Carolina must hope it doesn’t face a goaltending dilemma anytime soon.

Player to watch: Jake Guentzel. The former Pittsburgh Penguin wasted no time proving his worth on a new roster with eight goals and 25 points in 17 games. If that was the start of Guentzel’s production in Carolina, then consider the Eastern Conference playoff field on notice that an actual offensive hurricane is headed their way.

Bold prediction: Carolina charts an unstoppable course straight on to the Eastern Conference finals, but once again, the Hurricanes lose steam, and can’t make the Cup Final.


Record: 39-27-16, 94 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: New York found its rhythm from late March into April, and that secured them a playoff spot and powers their postseason hopes. The Islanders have a white-hot goaltender in Semyon Varlamov (who is 8-1-1 in starts since March 10) leading the way. What the Islanders lacked in identity earlier this year has finally come together under new coach Patrick Roy. There’s a stability to New York’s structure that’s revealed itself further with each passing game. The Islanders often favor physicality, and now they’re more opportunistic offensively to add dimension where it wasn’t before. New York should be confident heading into the postseason.

Biggest flaws: The Islanders have long faced criticism for their low scoring output, and this season — as a whole — has been no exception. New York ranked 23rd in offense through the regular season, averaging fewer than three goals per game. The Islanders’ attack is top-heavy when it does ignite, with only five skaters surpassing the 20-goal mark and only one (Mathew Barzal) working at a point-per-game pace. New York has to work hard for the offense it does get, and that can weigh a team down in a playoff series.

New York is also vulnerable on special teams. The Islanders cobbled together a league-worst penalty kill (72.2%), and their power play ranked 21st overall (19.7%). That puts serious pressure on the Islanders to stay disciplined and not let opponents use their mediocre special teams against them.

Player to watch: Bo Horvat. The Islanders’ forward had a solid regular season with 33 goals and 68 points. But this time of year is why New York traded for Horvat in the first place. He must produce a high-caliber effort nightly in the postseason for the Islanders to go far.

Bold prediction: New York tries to ride Varlamov’s hot hand, but the goalie stumbles early and is replaced by Ilya Sorokin. He nearly guides the Islanders to a first-round victory but they fall in Game 7.


Record: 40-31-11, 91 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Capitals’ never gave up. That attitude earned them a return bid to the playoffs in mind-blowing fashion. Washington somehow has both the worst goal differential (minus-37) of any postseason team in history and the chance to prove it means nothing when they open another first-round series. Washington has received contributions from everywhere and everyone this season, from established veterans (like Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson) to rising stars (including Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre). They’re in capable hands between the pipes, too, with Charlie Lindgren emerging as a stable starting option who can swing a game in Washington’s favor.

The Capitals’ overall buy-in under first-year coach Spencer Carbery (who’s done a masterful job righting the ship for Washington through several rocky stretches this season) is also what makes them dangerous. Yes, every team wants to be successful in the playoffs, but Washington is already driven by their underdog status. If the Capitals keep that mentality at the forefront, they could take the playoff field by storm.

Biggest flaws: Washington will have to turn up the heat offensively. The Capitals ranked 28th in total offense (with 2.63 goals per game), 29th in five-on-five goals (143), and Dylan Strome paced the team with just 67 points on the season. Where will Washington get consistent scoring from in a playoff series? Even if they manage that, can the Capitals keep the puck out of their own net, too? Lindgren has been terrific for much of the year, but Washington allows over 30 shots on net per game. How will that affect the Capitals when some of their key contributors have little to no postseason experience? It’s a recipe for preventable mistakes and those can quickly become series-defining problems.

Player to watch: Alex Ovechkin. Like there’s anyone else you’d be watching anyway. Ovechkin is in the late stages of a Hall of Fame career, and this opportunity to be in the playoffs looked like a long shot even last month. He won’t take this chance for granted, and that should fuel not only a stellar showing from him, but provide motivation to every player in Washington’s dressing room.

Bold prediction: Washington gives a rousing first-round effort to unseat the Presidents’ Trophy winners and advance to an unexpected second-round showing that ends with a Game 6 defeat.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Record: 52-21-9, 113 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Practically every team that wins a Stanley Cup encounters some sort of crucible before eventually capturing a championship. The Stars have done just that. Back in 2020, they reached the Stanley Cup Final. In 2022, they struggled to score in a first-round loss. The 2023 postseason saw them get within two games of the Stanley Cup Final, which is part of what makes them one of the NHL’s most legitimate Cup challengers.

Depth is everything in the postseason, and the Stars have it. They have eight players who scored more than 20 goals this season, and 13 players who finished with more than 20 points. But it’s not just the ability to score. Trading for Chris Tanev at the deadline gave the Stars that right-handed partner they’d sought for Miro Heiskanen, giving them a pairing capable of shutting down an opponent’s top two lines.

Biggest flaws: Strange as it sounds, there are questions about Jake Oettinger. Even though he has a third straight season of more than 30 wins, Oettinger’s consistency has been a topic of conversation. His 2.72 goals-against average and .905 save percentage are outliers, given he has a career 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage.

That said, he had a 1.66 GAA and a .940 save percentage in April. If that’s the version of Oettinger the Stars can get in the playoffs, it could ultimately see them take the next step and advance to their second Stanley Cup Final in four seasons.

And of course, matching up against the Golden Knights in Round 1 brings questions too; namely can they take the lessons learned from last year to win this time around?

Player to watch: Wyatt Johnston. Several executives around the NHL stress the importance of being able to build through the draft. Johnston is the latest example from the Stars’ assembly line that shows why they place such a premium on draft picks. He’s gone from being a rookie who was a significant contributor, to a second-year player who led them with 32 goals — and he doesn’t turn 21 until May.

Bold prediction: Thomas Harley will be the breakout star of a playoff run that will at least reach the second round. Harley finished the regular season with 15 goals and 47 points, and will give the Stars another standout on both ends.


Record: 51-24-6, 108 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Losing in the first round to the Golden Knights last year exposed a number of the Jets’ issues. Namely, they needed to add as much scoring help as possible, and that’s what they’ve done over the last 12 months. The Pierre-Luc Dubois trade allowed them to land Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi, who have been part of the Jets’ balanced scoring attack.

Altogether, the Jets had 13 players who scored more than 10 goals this season. They’ve received the contributions from established figures such as Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, while seeing new faces like Iafallo, Vilardi and Sean Monahan add to those totals. Combine that with what they have in goal in Connor Hellebuyck, and it makes the Jets a team that could pose problems if they can get out of the first round.

Biggest flaws: Can they parlay their regular-season success into the sort of results that gets them beyond the first round? It’s an even more relevant question heading into Round 1, given what they’ve done against the Avs in the regular season (winning all three games). But it’s a question the Jets have been trying to answer for the last few years. Back in 2017-18, they lost in the Western Conference finals to the Golden Knights, creating the belief that the Jets could become one of the West’s long-term contenders.

Since then, they’ve only made it out of the first round once. What’s separated them from teams such as the Avalanche, Golden Knights and Stars, among others, is they haven’t been able to go on those extended runs that show they are ready to challenge for a Stanley Cup. Is this the season the Jets take off?

Player to watch: Connor Hellebuyck. He has had one of the strongest individual campaigns of his career, and stands to capture what would be his second Vezina Trophy. Last year’s playoffs were a challenge, as Hellebuyck finished with a 3.44 GAA and a .886 save percentage. Still, Hellebuyck’s previous postseason experience has shown he can make a difference for a team that’s seeking to take the next step in their playoff evolution.

Bold prediction: Gabriel Vilardi will lead the Jets in scoring through at least one round of the playoffs. In a full, 82-game season, Vilardi was on pace for a team-high 37 goals, while his projected 62 points would have been second. Going to the Jets has allowed him to further tap into his promise, and it could once again benefit the Jets in the postseason.


Record: 49-25-7, 105 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Having Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar allows the Avalanche to be top Cup contenders on an annual basis. But having those three is not enough, which is what the Avs learned last year when the then-defending champions were ousted in the first round.

Avs general manager Chris MacFarland and his front office staff have used the time since to strengthen their depth. This is a team that isn’t reliant on its stars, and can receive contributions from everyone on a nightly basis. That’s what allowed the Avs to win the title back in 2022, and it’s what has them in contention for a second championship in the last three years.

Biggest flaws: Could it be the fact they’re opening the playoffs against the Jets? The Jets’ 7-0 victory on April 13 raised questions about what could happen once the playoffs started. Losing by a rather large margin wasn’t the only talking point after the game. There was also a discussion about how the Jets were 3-0 against the Avalanche in the regular season — and had outscored them 17-4 in those contests.

It’s possible that what happened in the regular season could have little bearing once their first-round series starts. The Golden Knights won only one of their eight combined games against the Oilers and Stars in the 2022-23 regular season, only to then beat those two teams en route to winning the Stanley Cup. Could it be a similar situation for the Avs, or can the Jets parlay their regular-season success into winning the series?

Player to watch: Gabriel Landeskog. The biggest question regarding the team has been: Can the captain return this postseason? Landeskog has missed the last two seasons recovering from a persistent knee injury which saw him undergo cartilage transplant surgery last May. Avs coach Jared Bednar said on April 16 that Landeskog is “not close” to participating in practices, while noting previously that the Avs captain could return at some point in the playoffs.

Bold prediction: Casey Mittelstadt averages a point per game in the first round. After coming over in trade from Buffalo, Mittelstadt filled the second-line center gap Colorado had been trying to fill since the departure of Nazem Kadri. His arrival now gives the Avs another player who could make a massive impact in what will be the first playoff series of his career.


Record: 45-28-8, 98 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Much of the system that allowed the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup last season is back. They have the reigning Conn Smythe winner in Jonathan Marchessault. They have players who have excelled in top line and/or top pairing roles such as Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo. They have Adin Hill, the goaltender who played a significant role. They also have the unsung heroes such as Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud, who were among the most used defensive pairings in the playoffs last season.

And then they supplemented all that by having one of the most advantageous trade deadlines in recent memory. They added a top-nine winger in Anthony Mantha, a top-pairing defenseman in Noah Hanifin and then made the shocking trade to get another top-six forward in Tomas Hertl, creating a team that looks like it can certainly defend its title.

Biggest flaws: Could the additions of Hanifin, Hertl and Mantha be too many new moving pieces at once? One thing that has allowed the Golden Knights to go from being an expansion team to a full-on juggernaut is their ability to have players seamlessly fit into their system as if they’ve been there the whole time. That’s how it’s worked with Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson, Eichel, Pietrangelo and Hill.

It’s uncertain if Hanifin, Hertl and Mantha can follow suit. Hanifin had 12 points through his first 18 games, while Mantha had 10 points in his first 18 games. Once Hertl was cleared to play following his recovery efforts from knee surgery, he had three points in his first four games which included the game-winning goal against the Avs on April 14. So far, so good.

Player to watch: Noah Hanifin. Yes, the idea of Stone coming back from injury to appear in the playoffs makes him a strong candidate to be the answer here. But we know what Stone can do in the postseason. Seeing what Hanifin can do in the playoffs could be rather important, considering the Golden Knights just signed him to an eight-year extension. He has eight points while averaging 21:03 of ice time per game in 27 career playoff contests, numbers should both rise this spring.

Bold prediction: Hertl will lead the Golden Knights in points throughout the entirety of their playoff run. Even if there are questions about how all the new pieces fit, Hertl finds a way to answer them by being the Golden Knights’ most prolific performer.

PACIFIC DIVISION

Record: 50-22-9, 109 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Few teams have been as consistent as the Canucks in a season that has watched them go from a surprise team to one that could win the Cup. Other than a four-game losing streak in February, the Canucks have looked the part of a serious championship challenger that relied upon its entire roster to reach this stage.

While J.T. Miller has 100 points and Quinn Hughes appears to be the Norris Trophy favorite, there is so much more to the Canucks. Brock Boeser‘s 40-goal campaign led the way for the Canucks to have 10 players who finished the season with more than 10 tallies. They also have 14 players who finished the year with more than 20 points.

Biggest flaws: Can they make it work in the playoffs? Rarely does a team go from missing the playoffs in seven of its last eight seasons to winning a Stanley Cup. But that’s the narrative the Canucks are seeking to rewrite as they’ve made it beyond the second round only once since the 2010-11 season that saw them reach the Stanley Cup Final.

They’re also trying to do this in a crowded Western Conference landscape that has seen quite a few teams encounter years of frustration before finally claiming the game’s ultimate prize. Although the argument could be had that maybe all those years of missing the playoffs is the struggle that has set the stage for the Canucks this postseason.

Player to watch: Thatcher Demko. Before he sustained a knee injury on March 9, Demko was performing like one of the NHL’s best goaltenders. He led the league with 34 wins while posting a 2.47 GAA and a .917 save percentage at the time of his injury. Demko returned to the lineup on April 16 and finished with 39 saves and a .975 save percentage in a win against the Calgary Flames.

Bold prediction: Elias Lindholm will reach double figures in points during the playoffs. While his time with the Canucks has had its challenges, Lindholm will play a major role in the Canucks’ bid to get beyond the first round.


Record: 49-26-6, 104 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Since Kris Knoblauch was hired to replace Jay Woodcroft in November, the Oilers have seemingly found answers to many of the questions facing them following their slow start. At times, they’ve looked like the most dangerous team in the league, evidenced by the fact they’re third in goals scored per game and have given up the fifth fewest goals per game since Knoblauch was hired.

Could this be their year? It was just two years ago when they were in the Western Conference finals, before losing to the eventual champion Avalanche. Last year, they reached the second round where they were knocked out by the eventual champion Golden Knights. Could the lessons from the past few years lead the Oilers to future glory?

Biggest flaws: Do the Oilers have the supporting cast that can help them win a championship? That remained a question throughout that second-round series against the Golden Knights. One of the avenues that allowed the Golden Knights to beat the Oilers, and the rest of their playoff opponents, was that they could rely on their depth to win games.

This has been a challenge for the Oilers. Outside of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, the only Oilers to score goals in those losses to the Golden Knights were Zach Hyman and Warren Foegele. Receiving consistent secondary scoring, along with the ability to parlay the success they’ve created with their defensive structure under a new coaching staff, could prove crucial to the Oilers’ title aspirations.

Player to watch: Stuart Skinner. Among the questions the Oilers faced last postseason: Can Skinner be the goalie who leads them to a championship? His maiden playoff voyage was rocky. There were postseason games in which he had a save percentage exceeding .960, and there were also games in which he was pulled in favor of Jack Campbell. He looked solid this regular season, but until he proves his mettle in the postseason, those questions will linger.

Bold prediction: Adam Henrique finishes among the top five Oilers in playoff points. Again, secondary scoring will be crucial, and this is also a big opportunity for Henrique to make his mark after playing for non-playoff teams for most of the past decade.

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1:04

2024 NHL playoffs: The chase for the Stanley Cup is on

Emily Kaplan sets up the chase for the Stanley Cup as the NHL’s second season gets underway.


Record: 43-27-11, 97 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Returning to the playoffs for a third straight season was due in part to the depth of the Kings’ roster. They have four players who had more than 20 goals in the regular season, nine players who reached double figures in goals and also had 11 players finish with more than 20 points. Four of those 11 players were defensemen.

Like a number of teams, they also made a coaching change this season, replacing Todd McLellan with interim coach Jim Hiller. His arrival has led to the Kings becoming one of the stronger defensive teams in the NHL. Since he took over on Feb. 2, the Kings have allowed the third fewest goals per game, the fifth fewest shots per game and have a top-six penalty kill.

Biggest flaws: Do they have enough to win a first-round series — particularly against a team that’s beaten them two years in a row? All the moves the front office has made over the last few years has made the Kings one of the more intriguing teams in the NHL, but getting beyond the first round has been the biggest challenge facing a franchise that’s trying to cement itself as one of the West’s elite teams.

Beating a conference power like the Oilers would emphatically answer those questions. But if they don’t, Kings general manager Rob Blake and his front office staff will be asking quite a few questions about what potential changes need to be made.

Player to watch: Pierre-Luc Dubois. Landing Dubois in a megatrade with the Jets — and then signing him to a long-term contract — was one of those moves that signaled the Kings intent when it came to their aspirations. So far, Dubois’ first season in L.A. hasn’t gone as planned, given the 40 points he had through 80 games are the fewest he’s had in a season in which he’s played at least 70. Dubois is averaging 0.68 points per game in 38 career postseason contests, and could use these playoffs to reframe his first season in Southern California.

Bold prediction: Dubois will lead the Kings in points during the playoffs. It’ll allow them to force a Game 7 against the Oilers in a series that will see the Kings make another first-round exit.


Record: 47-30-5, 99 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: There are two arguments that could explain why the Predators will go on a long run. The first is that the gulf between higher-seeded and lower-seeded teams isn’t that wide anymore. Or at least that was the case last season when the Panthers upset the Bruins while the Seattle Kraken knocked out the Avs.

The second is that the Predators have been one of the NHL’s most consistent teams since Feb. 17 — the day their 18-game points streak started. Only the Hurricanes have won more games than the Preds since then. They’re fourth in goals per game while allowing the fourth least goals per game in that time. Finding that sort of cohesion, while having experienced Cup winners on the team such as Ryan McDonagh, Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Schenn, makes the Preds one of the more intriguing teams to watch.

Biggest flaws: Could a general lack of playoff experience be a problem? One thing that has allowed the Preds to change their fortunes this season is the contributions made by players such as Luke Evangelista, Michael McCarron, Tommy Novak, Kiefer Sherwood and Cole Smith, among others. It’s a group that also doesn’t have much — and in some cases, any — playoff experience.

McCarron and Sherwood have combined to play in five games. Evangelista is a rookie, whereas Novak and Smith haven’t played in the postseason before. Seeing how that particular group can handle the demands of the playoffs could play a rather sizable role in whether or not the Preds can get beyond the first round for the first time since the 2017-18 season.

Player to watch: Juuse Saros. He’s one of the few goaltenders in the NHL who has started more than 60 games in each of the last three seasons. Even though the Preds haven’t made it out the first round in a few years, Saros was strong in his most recent postseason back in 2021-22 when he finished with a .921 save percentage. And with one year left on his contract and the emergence of Yaroslav Askarov, there’s added pressure to perform.

Bold prediction: The Predators will push the Canucks to seven games. Last year’s postseason showed that lower-seeded teams can not only challenge the higher seeds, but beat them in the first round. It’s possible that the Predators could either be the next lower seed to advance to the second round or know they exited the first round on the brink of a major upset.

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MLB offseason grades: Mets nab Polanco, Blue Jays keep adding

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MLB offseason grades: Mets nab Polanco, Blue Jays keep adding

It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.

Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.

ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.

Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin

Jump to biggest deals:
Alonso to BAL | Schwarber to PHI
Diaz to LAD | Cease to TOR


The deal: New York Mets sign IF/DH Jorge Polanco to two-year, $40 million deal
Grade: C

Just days after the Mets lost Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles — without even making the franchise’s career home run leader a formal offer — the club has found his replacement by signing Polanco in a deal that is unlikely to immediately win back disgruntled Mets fans.

Polanco is coming off an excellent season with the Seattle Mariners, hitting .265/.326/.495 with 26 home runs and a 134 OPS+. With Marcus Semien now the Mets’ second baseman, Polanco will work into the first-base/DH mix alongside Mark Vientos.

On the surface, it’s possible to argue that Polanco can fill Alonso’s shoes — or, given that he’ll be making about two-thirds of the $31 million AAV that Alonso will make with the Orioles, at least replace two-thirds of those shoes given that Alonso’s numbers weren’t that much better: .272/.347/.524 with a 144 OPS+.

Indeed, with either Vientos or Polanco projected at least as a small defensive upgrade over Alonso at first base, the Mets can pretend they’ve just replaced Alonso’s overall value while saving $11 million they could use toward signing top free agent Kyle Tucker or a front-line starting pitcher.

Of course, it’s not quite so simple. Polanco’s 134 OPS+ was a career high, and he has surpassed 20 home runs just three times in his career, the other two coming with the Twins in the lively ball years of 2019 and 2021. To be fair, he was healthier in 2025 after battling various leg and knee injuries the previous two seasons that limited him to a .213/.296/.355 line in his first season with Seattle in 2024.

In comparison to Alonso’s record of durability, that makes this a risky signing, as Polanco averaged just 101 games from 2022 to 2024. It’s fair to argue that three years of injuries is a better predictor of what might happen in the future than one healthy, career-best season. Polanco’s season also ran hot and cold: He had a 1.226 OPS in April and finished strong with a 1.015 OPS in September, along with some big postseason moments, but hit just .139 in May and .222 in June.

At his best, the 32-year-old switch-hitter is a tough out from both sides of the plate, with an 83rd percentile strikeout rate. He produced career highs in 2025 in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate while cutting his strikeout rate nearly in half from 2025. If the Mets get that version of Polanco, he’ll be a nice addition, if a bit of an overpay for a player with his health history. You certainly can’t pencil him for 162 games like you could for Alonso — and that’s what the Mets will miss most in 2026. — David Schoenfield


The deal: Toronto Blue sign Tyler Rogers to three-year, $37 million deal (with 2029 vesting option)
Grade: B+

Rogers is one of the most unique — and underrated, and wonderful – relievers in the majors. A pitcher with an 83-mph sinker shouldn’t succeed, but Rogers has, with a 2.71 ERA since 2021. Among pitchers with at least 350 innings since then, only Jacob deGrom has a lower ERA. Rogers does it with his ground-scraping delivery, the lowest release point of any pitcher in the majors, which gives him a different look than any other pitcher, with the ball leaving his six feet lower than most pitchers.

He threw that sinker nearly 75% of the time in 2025, relentlessly pounding the strike zone (he’s walked just 11 batters unintentionally in 148 innings over the past two seasons). Rogers then mixes in what is essentially a rising slider due to his low release point. In other words: He pitches down with his fastball and up with his breaking, the exact opposite of how most pitchers are doing it. Hitters’ brains just have trouble adjusting to something they’re not used to seeing.

It works, even though his whiff rate is in the first percentile — basically the lowest in baseball. But his groundball rate was in the 98th percentile, his hard-hit rate was in the 95th percentile and he never walks anybody. Unlike many sidearmers of the past, he has no platoon split, with a .627 OPS allowed against left-handed batters since 2021 and .633 against right-handers. Like those sidearmers, he’s been extremely durable, averaging 75 appearances over the past five seasons.

It looks like a great signing for the Blue Jays, especially because it fills a hole. Indeed, when we last saw the Jays in Game 7 of the World Series, manager John Schneider used six relievers, four of whom allowed a run. Three of those pitchers were starters, which indicated the lack of trust Schneider had in his regular relievers. Jeff Hoffman is presumably back as the closer after an up-and-down season, but Rogers immediately becomes the top high-leverage setup guy and Plan B if Hoffman struggles struggling again with the longball.

The biggest risk here is Rogers turns 35 in a few days, but, while the contract was higher than projected, Rogers doesn’t rely on velocity anyway, so he’s a good bet to remain healthy and age well into his late 30s. With the additions now of Dylan Cease, Korean League MVP Cody Ponce and Rogers, the Jays have reinforced the pitching staff while seeing the payroll soar past where it was in 2025. It will soar even higher if they can re-sign Bo Bichette, which now feels more likely given this spending spurge so far. — Schoenfield


The deal: Braves add RHP Robert Suarez on a three-year, $45 million contract
Grade: B

If you close your eyes, ignore the rest of the offseason and the 2026 regular season, and then imagine the Braves in next year’s playoff bracket, you see something enticing. A team with a one-two back-of-the-bullpen punch that has shrunk games down to seven innings. Navigate the bridge innings between the rotation and this dual-closer dynamo waiting in the wings, add a resurgent offense, and you’re in business.

To be clear, this very well might happen. The Braves, despite last season’s disappointments, rate as a prime contender, solidly in the tier down from the one-team group composed of the Dodgers. This was even before the additions over the past 18 hours or so of Yastrzemski and Suarez. Thus the Braves’ probabilities keep trending in the right direction.

Suarez is a powerhouse righty with an average fastball velocity approaching 99 mph. He throws harder than incumbent Braves closer Raisel Iglesias but has fewer weapons and induces fewer swing-and-misses. The question of who closes on a game-by-game basis might come down to who’s batting, as Suarez is strictly fastball/changeup against lefties and has been less successful in that regard than Iglesias. But the heavy sinker he mixes in against righties has made for a nasty combination: Batters from the right side produced just a .435 OPS against Suarez a season ago.

Still, the arsenals and movement profiles between Suarez and Iglesias seem pretty similar with the exception of Iglesias’ slider, a pitch which Suarez doesn’t throw. This isn’t necessarily a problem. For one thing, if you follow one with the other in a game, there’s little chance that the same hitters will see both pitchers. The more important consideration is simply the two innings of elite stuff opposing teams will see when trying to wage a comeback against the Braves. Still, in the context of the postseason series we conjured at the outset, this could be a consideration. Ideally, teams want their bullpen to be minimally redundant.

The contract is about right in AAV but probably a year longer than you’d like. That’s surely the function of a free agent market growing thin on elite closer types. The Braves re-upped with the 36-year-old Iglesias on a one-year, $16 million deal last month, so as long as Suarez holds up, he’s in position to take over as Atlanta’s exclusive closer after next season. The “if he holds up” qualifier is the potential sticking point because Suarez himself will be 35 by the time next season starts and has a strikeout rate (28%, 78th percentile among relievers with at least 30 appearances) that isn’t elite despite his raw stuff.

Also, we noted in our grade on the Yastrzemski signing below that the Braves’ room under the first tax threshold is shrinking. That continues with this move, though the deal is slightly backloaded ($13 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026 and 2027). According to Cot’s Contracts, this drops Atlanta down to within $9 million to $10 million below that line — and the Braves have more moves to make, with a shortstop topping their list.

Passing the threshold wouldn’t be a huge deal for Atlanta, which operated below the threshold last season. Still, it’s something you don’t want to do willy-nilly and since the Braves already had Iglesias on hand, maybe a lower-cost alternative like Brad Keller or Seranthony Dominguez would have made sense.

But if the Braves can steer this new bullpen structure into next October, no one will be worrying about the threshold. — Doolittle


The deal: Braves sign outfielder Mike Yastrzemski to a two-year, $23 million contract that includes a club option for a third year
Grade: B-

The Braves didn’t need a major overhaul in the outfield, but Yastrzemski represents an upgrade to the overall position group. He’s a versatile left-handed hitter who will ostensibly bump veteran Michael Siani out of a depth role on the 40-man roster.

The deal feels like a mild overpay given Yastrzemski’s age (he turns 36 next August), the two-year commitment and the Braves’ payroll outlook. Atlanta still has room to play with under the first luxury tax threshold (around $22 million, according to Cot’s Contracts) but they still need a starting shortstop and more pitching, so things could get cozy pretty quick.

That said, you like the options that new Atlanta manager Walt Weiss will have at his disposal, especially if the Braves find a solution at short that would shift Mauricio Dubon into the super-utility role for which he’s best suited. The Braves would have Yastrzemski, Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuna Jr., Jurickson Profar and Eli White as a core outfield rotation.

If you extend it further, Yastrzemski and Profar could log DH time, as would catcher Drake Baldwin, who shares his position with Sean Murphy, and maybe even first baseman Matt Olson, with Profar filling at first to give Olson a break. And of course, Dubon can fill in pretty much anywhere. It’s a deep and versatile position group with a healthy blend of lefty, righty and switch-hitters.

The concern would be a sharp decline for Yastrzemski, as can certainly happen with a mid-30s veteran. He has seen a mild drop in sprint speed already, though he remains a canny baserunner and, at least through last season, can still play center field when needed. At the plate, Yastrzemski posted the best strike zone indicators of his career last season and showed no drop-off in exit velocity or bat speed.

Those swing metrics could pay off big time at Truist Park, as Yastrzemski is way above average in terms of pulling balls in the air, and his new park, with the Chop House section as a target, is typically welcoming to fly ball-generating lefty pull hitters. Good player, good fit, perhaps one year too long on the guarantee. — Doolittle


The deal: Orioles sign 1B Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract
Grade: B

It’s fair to call this a stunning deal, although maybe less so once it was clear the Orioles had been in pursuit of Kyle Schwarber. This signing is as much about what it means to the Orioles as to what it means for the New York Mets to lose one of the most popular players in franchise history, a player who has averaged 42 home runs and 114 RBIs per 162 games in his career (and he played 162 each of the past two seasons). He’s a five-time All-Star, coming off a season in which he hit .272/.347/.524 — a career high in batting average — while hitting 38 home runs and an NL-leading 41 doubles.

Alonso’s value might have the widest difference in perception between what an average fan might think and the more analytical assessment from MLB front offices. That’s even aside from how much stake to put into his 2025 season, which was a much better all-around season at the plate than the previous two, with swing changes that resulted in a shorter swing and utilizing his hips more playing a big part in the improved batting average and contact rate. If those changes hold, Alonso should remain a productive hitter for at least the initial years of his contract, even as he enters his age-31 season.

As far as his overall value, Alonso has averaged 3.7 WAR per 162 games — a very good player for sure, but not necessarily the superstar level his home run and RBI totals suggest. Alonso tries hard on defense but lacks range. He hustles on the bases but lacks speed. He led the NL with 23 double plays hit into. His career OBP is .341 — good but not great. All this works to lower his overall value and helps explain why his market was soft when he was in free agency a year ago and why the Mets were willing to let him go despite his popularity in New York.

For the Orioles, they’ve now added Alonso and Taylor Ward, two right-handed sluggers who combined for 74 home runs in 2025. The Orioles tied for 11th in the majors in home runs in 2025, but they hit 44 fewer home runs than in 2024, so adding power was their clear offseason priority. Their first basemen — a combo of Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo and Ryan O’Hearn — were especially weak, ranking last in the majors with just 14 home runs and tied for last with 62 RBIs (they were 23rd in OPS). Alonso might end up at DH, or at least get some time there, but his power will fix a problem at first base.

His durability is a plus. His energy and enthusiasm — which Mets fans loved — are a plus, especially for an Orioles team that seemed to lack those characteristics last season. He’ll provide a jolt to a lineup that needed it. It’s interesting the O’s found themselves in this position, considering everyone thought a couple of years ago that they were printing position players. You could also argue that if the Orioles were going to make one big splash this offseason, it should have been for a front-line starting pitcher. Maybe they’ll surprise and do that as well.

The $31 million AAV, combined with Alonso’s age and lack of all-around game, limit the grade here, but he’ll help the Orioles, at least until the .220, 25-homer seasons pop up at the end of this deal.

As for the Mets, they’ve gone from Alonso to Mark Vientos, Edwin Diaz to Devin Williams, and Brandon Nimmo to Marcus Semien. Those are arguably all downgrades, so it’s hard to see the plan here. If Vientos can bounce back to his 2024 numbers, that will help replace Alonso’s offense (manager Carlos Mendoza already said Brett Baty will get the majority of time at third base), but the Mets still have holes at DH, left field and center field.

In the end, David Stearns did the analysis and decided Alonso isn’t a $150 million player and the Mets can find the offense elsewhere — or use some of that money to add to a rotation and bullpen that need help. It’s not often that a big-market team walks away from a face-of-the-franchise type of player like Alonso. We’ll see if that ultimately ends up as the right decision, but Stearns has a lot of work to do the rest of this offseason to get the Mets back to playoff contention. — Schoenfield


The deal: Phillies re-sign DH Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $150 million deal
Grade: A

Let’s cut right to it: The Phillies had to re-sign Schwarber. It would be hard to envision the Phillies, a team with four consecutive playoff appearances and back-to-back NL East titles, winning a World Series without the slugger who in some fashion has replaced Bryce Harper as the central figure for the franchise. It’s no coincidence that the Phillies’ run of success overlapped with signing Schwarber to a four-year, $79 million contract after the 2021 season.

During those four seasons, Schwarber averaged 47 home runs, 107 runs and 108 RBIs while hitting .226/.349/.507. He’s been a rock of stability, averaging 157 games, and over those four years, he tied for second in the majors in home runs (with Shohei Ohtani) while ranking fourth in RBIs, fifth in runs scored and third in walks. His game is simple: He’s trying to hit the ball 500 feet with every massive swing. He hits bombs, he takes his walks, and he strikes out with the gusto of Mighty Casey. That approach worked better than ever in 2025, when he led the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs while hitting .240/.365/.563 and finishing behind only Ohtani in the MVP voting.

Collectively, the Phillies’ offense has remained remarkably consistent, scoring between 778 and 794 runs the past three seasons, but that offense has become increasingly reliant on three players: Schwarber, Harper and Trea Turner. While the Phillies had 10 players hit at least 10 home runs, only Schwarber and Harper topped 20. Those three combined for about 77 runs created above average while the rest of the offense was a combined minus-38 runs below average.

Losing Schwarber would have opened up an enormous hole in the lineup — and while the Phillies were the clear favorite to re-sign Schwarber all along, there was a lot of interest in him from other teams, enough to create believable speculation that he could move on, possibly to the Cincinnati Reds (the team he grew up rooting for) or even to the rival New York Mets, at least if the Mets and Pete Alonso ended up parting ways. In the end, the Phillies did what they had to, even if it perhaps meant giving Schwarber an additional season based on projected contracts (Kiley McDaniel predicted a four-year, $128 million deal in his free agent rankings).

Schwarber will be entering his age-33 season, so this deal isn’t without risk. He’s coming off his best season, largely due to a dramatic improvement against left-handers, hitting .252/.366/.598 with 23 home runs, after hitting .228/.347/.436 against them from 2022 to 2024. But maybe that improvement is for real: He hit .300 with 12 home runs against lefties in 2024, so this is now consecutive seasons he’s hit well against same-side pitching.

As for how he might age, his raw power skills remain elite so those should remain stable for the immediate future: 100th percentile hard-hit rate in 2025, 98th percentile bat speed, 90th percentile chase rate. He swings at strikes, he swings hard, and he hits it hard. As a power-hitting DH, Schwarber draws comparisons to David Ortiz, who aged remarkably well (having one of his greatest seasons in his final year at age 40). That’s not necessarily the best comparison, however, because in his mid-30s, Ortiz transformed into a much better contact hitter, cutting his strikeout rate from 22.6% in his age 33/34 seasons to 14.5% the rest of his career. That’s not likely to happen with Schwarber, who fanned 27.2% of the time in 2025.

Still, Schwarber projects as one of the best run producers in the game, and it’s reasonable to expect at least solid production all the way through his age-37 season. The Phillies still have some holes to address: re-signing or replacing catcher J.T. Realmuto, perhaps re-signing or replacing Ranger Suarez in the rotation, finding a left fielder, maybe moving on from Alec Bohm at third base. But Schwarbs is back. And that makes the Phillies World Series contenders once again. — Schoenfield


The deal: Dodgers sign RHP Edwin Diaz to a three-year, $69 million deal
Grade: A

It’s a bad idea to sign a relief pitcher to a long-term contract. But it’s not a bad idea to sign Edwin Diaz to a long-term contract, and it’s especially not a bad idea for the Los Angeles Dodgers to do so.

You could get really cynical or optimistic about this — whether you’re a Dodgers fan or not. The Dodgers’ bullpen plan a year ago was to stock the roster with a ridiculous list of big-name relievers who had all worked in the closing role for various teams. The depth chart was eye-popping: Blake Treinen, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Kirby Yates and Michael Kopech. The plan did not work. Each of those pitchers struggled with injuries, performance or both.

That being the base, you could point at the Diaz signing as an expression of Dodger hubris: They did not learn the most basic of bullpen-building lessons, that there is no such thing as certainty with that position group, no matter how much money you spend on it. Of that quintet, only Scott and Treinen remain on the roster.

So, sure, any and every reliever is a risk, but for the Dodgers, Diaz is more than worth it. Few relievers truly separate themselves from the pack and maintain their status for an extended period of time. Diaz is one of them, and this deal — strange as it is to say about a reliever — is a bargain, even if the $23 million average annual value is a record for a bullpenner.

Over the past five years, only Emmanuel Clase has earned more fWAR (8.1) than Diaz among relievers, and Diaz missed the entire 2023 season with a knee injury. During that span, only Mason Miller has a higher strikeout rate among relievers (14.3 K/9 for Diaz) and only Cade Smith has a better fielding-independent ERA than Diaz’s 2.14.

Diaz is 31, but last season was one of his best (1.63 ERA, 28 saves in 31 chances), and his underlying traits remain elite. According to Statcast, Diaz rated in the 99th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, whiff rate and strikeout rate. His command wavers periodically but his nasty four-seamer/slider combo allows him to work out of jams when it does.

For the Dodgers’ depth chart, adding Diaz provides clarity where last year’s did not. Having all of those different closer types was nice, but who gets the ninth and in what situation? Now the ninth belongs to Diaz, and the rest of the bullpen plan becomes that much easier to set up on a game-by-game basis, with Treinen and Scott becoming a lethal setup combo if they regress to the better versions of themselves.

And of course, with the Dodgers landing Diaz, that means none of their chief competitors will have him, including the Mets. New York goes from possibly having a much upgraded back of the bullpen with a Diaz/Devin Williams combination to a dynamic in which Williams is now serving as Diaz’s replacement. It could be a lot worse because Williams is very good, but it’s not the kind of outlook Mets fans might have envisioned as recently as Tuesday morning.

The bargain aspect of the deal is the length — three years, which is a hedge against Diaz’s age. He’s been a good health bet except for a fluky knee injury and his stuff has shown no decline. But he’s still a power pitcher who throws a lot of high-spin sliders who is on the wrong side of 30.

You have to wonder how many teams could have landed Diaz on a three-year deal. Surely some were willing to go to four years at least, perhaps at a lower AAV but with more overall value. But this is what the Dodgers have become — a destination. And their uniforms — not to mention the super-swag championship rings that go with them — are becoming status symbols among baseball’s elite in the way that super-yachts have become the darlings of the mega-wealthy.

The Dodgers, already a definitive favorite to win a third straight World Series, have solidified that status by a few more percentage points. And all it cost them was money, a resource that for them has become all but irrelevant. That is increasingly what puts the Dodgers on the hilltop, and makes the climb for everyone else that much more difficult to complete. — Doolittle


Mariners get:
LHP Jose Ferrer

Nationals get:
C Harry Ford
RHP Isaac Lyon

Mariners grade: C+

Well, the verdict is in from Mariners fans: They universally hate this trade. (It’s not often you get an entire fan base to agree on something.) Their feelings are understandable. Ford was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2021 and progressed nicely, advancing one level per season and hitting .283/.408/.460 in 2025 at Triple-A. He has remained a top-100 prospect all along, including No. 65 on ESPN’s updated list from August. Sure, he’s blocked by Cal Raleigh, but he projected as the backup catcher and part-time DH in 2026.

The return? A lefty reliever with a 4.48 ERA. It certainly feels a little light for a top-100 prospect — and a hard-to-find catching prospect — but that ERA undersells Ferrer’s potential. He throws a 98 mph sinker 70% of the time that helped him register one of the highest ground ball rates in the majors (99th percentile). He throws strikes (16 walks in 76.1 innings) and dominated left-handed batters (holding them to a .186 average and .521 OPS).

With Gabe Speier the only reliable lefty in the bullpen, the Mariners needed a second lefty and, after ending the season as the Nationals’ closer, Ferrer certainly can slot into a high-leverage role. He’s exactly what teams want in the postseason: a hard-throwing reliever. Scouts like his secondary stuff and the Mariners no doubt will have Ferrer use his slider and changeup more often, which could take him to an elite level.

Nationals grade: A-

The first major transaction from Paul Toboni, the Nationals’ new president of baseball operations, looks like a good one. Anytime you can turn a reliever into a possible long-term starting position player, that’s a win. We’ll hedge the grade here a bit since Ford hasn’t proved himself on the major league level, plus he projects more as a solid regular than a future star, but he should be a significant upgrade at a position that saw the Nationals rank 29th in the majors in OPS.

Indeed, Keibert Ruiz was supposed to be the answer behind the plate for the Nationals when they acquired him in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner with the Dodgers, but he has gone backward since a solid season in 2023, producing an unacceptable .595 OPS in 2025. Ford’s biggest strength is an excellent approach at the plate that produced a 16.2% walk rate in Triple-A while striking out less than 20% of the time. With a career .405 OBP in the minors, he could eventually become a top-of-the-order hitter as he also runs well. (He stole 34 bases in 2024.) The power is only moderate and the defense still needs some work around the edges, but Ford should take over as the regular catcher in 2026. — Schoenfield


Red Sox get:
RHP Johan Oviedo
LHP Tyler Samaniego
C Adonys Guzman

Pirates get:
OF Jhostynxon Garcia
RHP Jesus Travieso

Red Sox grade: B-

The American League East is clearly all-in. The Toronto Blue Jays have signed Dylan Cease and Korean League MVP Cody Ponce for their rotation. The Baltimore Orioles signed Ryan Helsley and traded for Taylor Ward and Andrew Kittredge. The Tampa Bay Rays have added outfielders Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley and reliever Steven Wilson. And now the Boston Red Sox have acquired Oviedo after trading for Sonny Gray last week. (The New York Yankees? Trent Grisham accepted their qualifying offer, so he’s back.)

While there were other players involved in this trade between Boston and the Pittsburgh Pirates, it’s mostly Oviedo-for-Garcia, so let’s focus on those two. Oviedo is sort of the polar opposite of Gray, other than the fact that both are right-handers: Oviedo is 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds with a fastball that touches 98 mph while Gray is 5-10 and doesn’t throw hard; Gray has been reasonably healthy while Oviedo missed all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery; Gray pounds the strike zone while Oviedo’s control problems have always limited his value (in nine starts in 2025, he averaged 5.1 walks per nine).

Oviedo leans mostly on a fastball/slider, mixing in a curveball and changeup that he uses primarily against left-handers. In his one full season as a starter with the Pirates in 2023, he made 32 starts with a 4.31 ERA and 2.2 WAR, making him essentially a league-average starter. In his abbreviated return of 40 innings in 2025, improved movement on his four-seamer helped limit damage against that pitch as he posted career highs in strikeout rate (24.7%) and batting average allowed (.182) to go along with the high walk rate.

There is obvious upside here, especially if the better results against left-handed hitters in 2025 are for real. In his two years as Red Sox pitching coach, Andrew Bailey has extracted improvement from the likes of Tanner Houck in 2024 (although he got hurt in 2025) and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito in 2025, so it will be interesting to see what Bailey can do with Oviedo. For now, Oviedo projects as a fourth/fifth starter with two seasons of team control and gives the Red Sox plenty of rotation depth: They have Garrett Crochet, Gray, Bello, Kyle Harrison, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and Hunter Dobbins, with Patrick Sandoval returning from injury (Houck is likely out for the season after TJ surgery).

With Oviedo set to make an estimated $2 million, it also leaves the Red Sox plenty of payroll room to make a big splash in free agency — like re-signing Alex Bregman.

Pirates grade: B+

Garcia owns one of the best nicknames in the sport — “The Password” — and is a toolsy soon-to-be 23-year-old who will have a chance to start in a Pirates outfield that ranked 27th in the majors in OPS in 2025. There was no room for him in an already crowded Red Sox outfield, so don’t view them trading him as a sign they weren’t high on his ability.

He is a high-risk player — but the kind of gamble the Pirates need to take. He hit .267/.340/.470 with 21 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this year, but that came with a 131/45 strikeout-to-walk ratio that included a high chase rate, especially after his promotion to Triple-A. He could stick in center field — depending on what the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz — but probably projects best as an above-average defender in right field. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had ranked him as the No. 3 prospect in the Red Sox system in his update this past August.

Garcia could turn into an above-average starter if he improves his chase or could be more of a fourth outfielder with a sub-.300 OBP if he doesn’t. The Pirates, of course, haven’t exactly excelled at turning prospects into good hitters (see Cruz’s regression in 2025), so odds are Garcia probably swings more to the latter scenario. But he’s a nice return for two years of Oviedo. — Schoenfield


The deal: Three years, $30 million
Grade: A-

The last time we saw Cody Ponce in the majors he was one of the worst pitchers in the league. Pitching primarily in relief for the Pirates in 2021, he ranked 426th in ERA out of 436 pitchers with at least 35 innings. He ranked 436th out of 436 in batting average allowed and also ranked 436th in OPS allowed.

Ponce went to Japan in 2022, pitched there for three seasons with mixed results and then joined Hanwha in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2025, where he went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 180⅔ innings to win league MVP honors. Whereas his fastball averaged 93.2 mph with Pittsburgh in 2021, the 6-foot-6 right-hander now sits around 95 mph and gets it up to 99, while mixing in a cutter, curveball and changeup — the changeup being a new pitch that led to an impressive 36% strikeout rate in the KBO.

Now, the KBO is not MLB. This grade isn’t predicting that Ponce is going to be a Cy Young contender but reflective of the contract. At three years and $30 million, it’s a worthy gamble for the Blue Jays. If he’s a 1-WAR pitcher for three years, he’ll at least earn the money back. If he’s a 2-WAR pitcher, it’s a great deal. If he’s a 3-WAR pitcher over the next three seasons, it will be one of the best deals of the offseason.

There have been success stories from U.S. pitchers who went to the KBO and then returned as better pitchers. Merrill Kelly came back in 2019 at age 30 and has averaged 3.3 WAR per 162 games. Erick Fedde went to Korea in 2023 and won MVP honors then returned with a 5.6-WAR season in 2024 (although he faded in 2025). Ponce throws harder than those two. I like his chances to be a midrotation starter, with the bullpen as a nice fallback.

After officially signing Dylan Cease, the Blue Jays are now rolling out a rotation that includes Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios, Eric Lauer and Ponce. Berrios ended the season with right elbow inflammation, so he has a red flag next to his health status, but that’s a seven-man group that should help make the Blue Jays the preseason favorite in the AL East — especially if they also re-sign infielder Bo Bichette.

Their payroll is now clocking in at an estimated $272 million without Bichette, up from $258 million last season (via FanGraphs), but the Blue Jays have made it clear: They want one more win in 2026 and will pay to try to get it. — Schoenfield


The deal: Three years, $51 million
Grade: B-

Consider these two seasons from two-time All-Star reliever Devin Williams, who has agreed to a three-year contract with the New York Mets:

Season A: 37.7% SO rate, 12.1% BB rate, 1.7% HR rate, .129 BA

Season B: 34.8% SO rate, 9.7% BB rate, 1.9% HR rate, .197 BA

The first one is a little better, but they’re pretty close other than a spike in batting average allowed, which is somewhat canceled out by a lower walk rate. Those seasons should have produced similar results.

They did not.

Season A was 2023, when Williams went 8-3 with a 1.53 ERA and 36 saves for the Brewers and was regarded as perhaps the best closer in the majors. Season B was 2025, when Williams went 4-6 with a 4.79 ERA for the Yankees, lost his job as closer and faced headlines like “Devin Deadly Sins” after a particularly rough outing in August.

But the numbers indicate at least why the Mets were willing to give Williams a $50 million-plus deal (with a reported $5 million in annual deferrals) coming off his shaky season with the Yankees. The peripheral numbers remained excellent, the home run rate wasn’t as high as Yankees fans would lead you to believe, and David Stearns — who ran baseball operations in Milwaukee when Williams was there and is now in that position with the Mets — is still buying that Williams’ changeup/fastball combo can return him to an elite level.

That’s certainly possible. Williams’ ERA was bloated largely because of a handful of terrible outings: He gave up three or more runs in six games with the Yankees — more times than in his career up to 2025. It’s also true that his changeup, which he has thrown more often than his fastball in his career, wasn’t as dominant. All five home runs he gave up came on his changeup, compared to six on his changeup in 235 innings entering 2025. The whiff rate on the pitch also fell under 40% for the first time, which in turn made his 94 mph four-seamer a little less effective.

It’s nothing that can’t be fixed with a little more consistency, but there’s also no guarantee Williams returns to his performance with the Brewers. Maybe hitters are finally figuring him out a bit. Maybe he lost some confidence after he served up a series-losing home run to Pete Alonso in the 2024 playoffs. All that adds some risk to the contract, especially factoring in that Williams’ struggles coincided with his shift from small-market Milwaukee to pressure-packed New York — and that won’t change in moving from the Bronx to Queens.

It’s also possible Williams ends up being a very expensive setup man. Longtime Mets closer Edwin Diaz remains a free agent after opting out of his deal, but reports indicate the Mets are still interested in re-signing Diaz (who could be looking for something like the five-year, $95 million deal Josh Hader signed with the Astros).

If Diaz does return, the Mets would be on their way to building the most expensive bullpen in history, with A.J. Minter already on the books for $11 million, Brooks Raley for $4.75 million and a few other holes yet to be filled. Hey, considering what happened in 2025 — from June 1 on, the Mets were 25th in bullpen ERA, even with Diaz — it’s probably a good idea to spend on what faltered at the end of last season. Williams and Diaz at their best would give the Mets the best 1-2 late-game duo in the majors. — Schoenfield


The deal: 2 years, $28 million, player option after 2026 season
Grade: C+

With Felix Bautista down for most, if not all, of the 2026 season because of shoulder surgery, Baltimore had a need for an end-of-the-game reliever. Helsley had been filling that precise role well for the Cardinals for several seasons, before he embarked on a short-lived Mets career that both he and the team would like to forget.

Barring an obvious and measurable drop in stuff, you always want to lean more on baseline performance when it comes to a reliever than the fluctuations that come with year-over-year results. Over the last three seasons, Helsley is one of 12 relievers with at least 4.0 fWAR in the aggregate and only seven have posted more saves than Helsley’s 84.

Primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, Helsley reportedly began tipping his pitches at some point in 2025 and opposing batters began ambushing his heater early in counts with much success. He ended up giving up a .422 average and .667 slugging on his four-seamer last season even though his average velocity (in excess of 99 mph) and spin rate was in line with past seasons.

The hope would be that Helsley fixes (or has fixed) the issue and once again is able to pair his high-speed fastball with his high-performing slider, a combo which helped him save 49 games for St. Louis in 2024. The structure of this deal gives him a shot at reentering the market next season after hopefully proving that his performance with the Mets was a fluke.

For the Orioles, Helsley slides into the primary saves role after some early chatter in free agency suggested some teams were looking at him as a possible rotation conversion. The contract is a bit of a risk if Helsley doesn’t perform and declines to opt out, as a $14 million average annual value is what you would want to be paying a first-division closer, not a just-a-guy reliever.

At his best, Helsley has been an All-Star-level, high-leverage reliever for multiple seasons, and the Orioles clearly think that his Mets misadventure was a blip, not his new reality. — Doolittle


The deal: 7 years, $210 million
Grade: B

One of the interesting aspects of MLB free agency is that the number of suitors for a player isn’t always directly correlated to on-field value. There are, after all, only so many teams willing and able to spend nine figures. In recent years, we’ve seen excellent players like Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell settle for shorter-term deals late in the offseason as they waited for that big long-term offer that never came — or was pulled off the table.

In the case of Dylan Cease, it makes a lot of sense for him to sign early while the money is there. He’s a pitcher with clear skills and ability but also frustratingly inconsistent results, which was going to lead to a wide variance in how teams evaluated him — and thus what offers he received. The $210 million deal the Toronto Blue Jays gave Cease is closer to the high end for him, given Kiley McDaniel’s projection of five years, $145 million.

The positive:

  • Pure stuff: The “Stuff+” metric — which various sites now calculate based on a whole host of things like spin, movement and velocity — rates Cease’s pitches as some of the best in the majors, including a fastball that averages 97 mph. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2025, he tied for 12th in Stuff+ per FanGraphs.

  • Durability: Cease is riding a streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts. Since 2021, he’s first in the majors in games started and seventh in innings. Considering the best predictor for future injuries is past injuries, that health history and projected durability give him a high floor for any future deal.

  • Age: He’s entering his age-30 season, clearly still in his prime years.

The negative:

  • His ERA has jumped from 2.20 to 4.58 to 3.47 to 4.55 over the past four seasons with corresponding changes in his value, from 6.4 WAR in 2022 with the Chicago White Sox to just 1.1 with the San Diego Padres in 2025, when he had a high ERA despite pitching in a good pitcher’s park. His road ERA in 2025 was 5.58, which is certainly a concern as he now goes to a better-hitting division and better hitter’s park.

  • His lack of efficiency not only leads to too many walks — he leads the majors over the past four seasons — but short outings due to high pitch counts. Cease failed to last five innings in 10 of his 32 starts, which is too often for a pitcher who just got $210 million.

In Cease’s best season in 2022, his slider was unhittable while his four-seamer and knuckle-curve were also effective, making him a three-pitch pitcher. The curveball hasn’t been nearly as effective since then, with batters slugging .576 against it in 2025, .444 in 2024 and .538 in 2023, making him more of a two-pitch guy now. He started throwing a sweeper and sinker a little more often last season, and maybe the continued development of those pitches will help him get back to being one of the better starters in the majors.

That’s what the Blue Jays are banking on. They’ll likely note that his Fielding Independent Pitching, which factors in only strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed — has been fairly consistent the past four years: 3.10, 3.72, 3.10 and 3.56, respectively. That averages out to 3.36, with his actual ERA rising and falling depending on the variations of his batting average on balls in play (.261 and .266 in ’22 and ’24, .331 and .323 in ’23 and ’25).

At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid middle-of-the rotation starter to go with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. The good version of Cease is a No. 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber is healthy for the entire season and Berrios’ late-season elbow inflammation was just temporary, that’s a rotation that could be as good as any in the game. We knew the Jays were going to strike big this offseason. This might not be their only move of consequence. — Schoenfield


Red Sox get:
RHP Sonny Gray
$20 million in cash

Cardinals get:
LHP Brandon Clarke
RHP Richard Fitts

Red Sox grade: B+

The Red Sox had three-fifths of an outstanding rotation in 2025, with Garrett Crochet leading the way and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito producing solid campaigns as the second and third starters. That was enough to get the Red Sox back into the postseason for the first time since 2021, but after Giolito declined his part of a $19 million mutual option, the Red Sox were looking for a veteran starter to replace him.

They landed on Gray, who is 36 years old but coming off a second straight 200-strikeout season while also leading National League starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Red Sox have reportedly restructured Gray’s deal to pay him $31 million in 2026 with a $10 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027, essentially turning this into a one-year rental at $41 million (with the Cardinals picking up half that tab). It’s certainly a great deal for Gray, who no doubt happily waived his no-trade clause to get out of St. Louis.

As for Gray the pitcher, he’s an interesting mix. When he can get to two strikes, he’s one of the best in the game, ranking fourth in the majors among starters with a nearly 52% strikeout rate (Crochet was first at 54.3%) while holding batters to a .135 average. His sweeper is his go-to strikeout pitch, registering 111 of his 201 strikeouts. His curveball generated a 34% whiff rate.

His problems came against his fastballs, as batters hit .370 and slugged .585 against his four-seamer (which he uses more against left-handed batters) and hit .281 and slugged .484 against his sinker (which he uses more against righties). He also throws a cutter, which he takes a little off on the velocity, but that was also similarly ineffective, with batters hitting .387 off it. The damage against his fastballs led to 25 home runs allowed and a 4.28 ERA, despite the excellent walk and strikeout numbers.

Can that be fixed? With a fastball that averages 92 mph, maybe not. Gray did throw his three fastball variants 53% of the time, so maybe the Red Sox suggest a different pitch mix — the four-seamer, while it gives him the one pitch Gray throws up in the zone, has been hammered two years in a row now, but was still the pitch he threw most often in 2025.

Overall, Gray plugs a big hole without the Red Sox paying out a long-term contract — and the Red Sox didn’t give up anybody who projected to be an impact player for them in 2026 (such as starters Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who debuted this past season and could be in the 2026 rotation).

Cardinals grade: C

It’s not exactly a salary dump, but it has the feel of one, although the Cardinals at least chipped in $20 million to get a little better return on the player side. Fitts could be a bottom-of-the-rotation guy, and given the holes in the St. Louis rotation, is almost certain to get that opportunity. His four-seam fastball, sitting 95-96, was an effective pitch in the 10 starts he made for the Red Sox in 2025, but he hasn’t really developed a trustworthy secondary offering. His slider got hit hard and didn’t generate enough swing-and-miss. Maybe his sweeper/curveball combo will eventually elevate his game, but he threw both less than 11% of the time.

Clarke, a hard-throwing lefty who has hit 100 mph, was drafted out of a Florida junior college in 2024. He had Tommy John surgery in high school and redshirted one year at Alabama with another injury. The Red Sox limited him to 14 starts and 38 innings in 2025 in Class A, where he registered both high strikeout numbers (60) and high walk totals (27). ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel rated him the No. 9 prospect in the Boston system in August and while there’s obvious upside if everything comes together, he’s not close to the majors and the profile screams reliever risk.

For the Cardinals, they’ve at least made their intentions clear: If 2025 was “re-set,” 2026 is going to be a rebuild. Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras could also all be traded before the winter is over. — Schoenfield


Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien

Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo

Mets grade: C+

One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.

For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.

That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.

One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.

Rangers grade: C+

If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.

We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.

The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.

Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Doolittle


Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward

Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles grade: D

The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.

Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.

I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.

Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.

On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.

That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.

And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.

Angels grade: A-

This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.

And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.

Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.

The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.

The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle


The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-

If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.

It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.

Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.

Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.

He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — Schoenfield

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Utes’ Whittingham stepping down after 21 years

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Utes' Whittingham stepping down after 21 years

Utah‘s Kyle Whittingham, the winningest coach in program history and one of the longest-tenured coaches in the FBS, will step down following the Utes’ appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31, the school announced Friday.

Whittingham, who has been with the program since 1994, was named head coach in December 2004 and amassed 177 wins, which ranks third among active FBS coaches.

“The time is right to step down from my position as the head football coach at the University of Utah,” Whittingham said in a statement. “It’s been an honor and a privilege to lead the program for the past 21 years and I’m very grateful for the relationships forged with all the players and assistant coaches that have worked so hard and proudly worn the drum and feather during our time here. The opportunity to guide so many talented young men as they pursued their goals — both on and off the field, has truly been a blessing.”

Whittingham, 66, led the Utes to three conference titles as head coach, two appearances in the Rose Bowl, two top-five finishes in the AP poll and an undefeated season in 2008, capped by a win against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. He earned national coach of the year honors in 2008 and 2019.

“The legacy that Kyle Whittingham leaves distinguishes him as one of the most impactful figures in the history of Utah Athletics,” Utah athletic director Mark Harlan said in a statement. “As the head coach or as an assistant, Coach Whitt played a pivotal role in the most historic and successful seasons in program history, and established championship expectations. Perhaps more importantly, he established a legacy of tremendous character, integrity and class. Kyle Whittingham will forever be appreciated and cherished for his leadership and achievement with Utah Football.”

Whittingham is expected to be succeeded by defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley, who Harlan announced as the head coach in waiting on July 1, 2024. Scalley joined the Utah staff in 2008 and has been the defensive coordinator for 10 seasons.

During Whittingham’s 21-year run as head coach, the Utes had 18 winning seasons, transitioning from the Mountain West to the Pac-12 and finally the Big 12. The Utes went 10-2 this season and were No. 15 in the final playoff rankings. His last game will be against Nebraska on New Year’s Eve.

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WSU names Mizzou OC Moore new head coach

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WSU names Mizzou OC Moore new head coach

Washington State named Missouri offensive coordinator Kirby Moore as the school’s new head coach, the school announced on Friday.

Moore agreed to a five-year deal, the school said.

Moore was hired by Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz as offensive coordinator before the 2023 season, and the Tigers have won 29 games over the past three years, including posting an 11-2 mark in 2023.

“Coach Moore is the real deal, and exactly who we needed to propel us to the top of the new Pac-12,” Washington State president Elizabeth Cantwell said in a statement. “Our student-athletes have lucked out. This man cares deeply not only about winning, but their success on and off the field.”

Moore will be introduced to the media at a press conference on Monday.

Moore emerged from a pool of candidates that also included Cal offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.

Moore will replace Jimmy Rogers, who left WSU after one season to become the head coach at Iowa State. Moore will be the program’s fifth head coach since 2019, following Mike Leach, Nick Rolovich, Jake Dickert and Rogers.

“I’m honored and excited to join Washington State University as its new head football coach,” Moore said in a statement. “Becoming a first-time head coach at a special place like Washington State is a dream come true for my family and I.”

Prior to Missouri, Moore had a six-year stint at Fresno State, where he rose from wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator, coaching under Jeff Tedford and Kalen DeBoer. Moore’s coaching career started at the College of Idaho in 2014 before two seasons as a graduate assistant at Washington under Chris Petersen, for whom he played at Boise State.

Moore grew up in Prosser, Washington, where he played high school football for his father, Tom, alongside his brother, Kellen, the New Orleans Saints‘ head coach. The Moore brothers also played together at Boise State.

The Cougars went 6-6 this year and will play Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Dec. 22.

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