Pitching, defense and a budding star: Why the red-hot Royals might actually be for real
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
As the 2024 season nears its one-month mark, the Kansas City Royals — the team that matched a franchise record with 106 losses last year — are not only on the right side of .500, but feature one of the best run differentials in baseball.
To better understand where they are, let’s try to understand where they were — merely a few months ago, at the end of a disastrous 2023 season. If Kansas City were in the early stages of a rebuild, it might not be fair to label that as a disaster. But the current rebuild can be traced to at least 2018, as the back-to-back pennant winners of the last decade were gradually dissolved. Six years down the line, you expect a team in rebuild mode to be emerging, not bottoming out. So, yes, that’s a disaster.
Even worse: In ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel’s preseason farm system rankings over the past three years, the Royals have finished 12th, 28th and 26th, respectively. And in McDaniel’s prospect rankings for 2024, they failed to land a single prospect in the top 100.
None of this reads like the resume of a breakout team, but check out the current standings — the Royals have a winning percentage in the top 10 of the majors.
The obvious conclusion is that it’s a fluke. This happens almost every season. Some team emerges from the ether, inspiring a spate of “are they for real” analysis. (Like this one.) At the end of April last year, the Pirates had the best record in the National League with a run differential that justified that mark. They finished 10 games under .500.
The Royals have occupied an early spring “if the season ended today” playoff slot for most of the schedule to date. It’s been a surprising run and an enjoyable run. The question is whether it’s going to be a long run.
If the Royals’ strong start turns into a season-long push for the playoffs, the beginning of that quest will be traced to the organization’s decision to actually try this past winter. That might seem like a no-brainer, but when you look at the team-by-team behavior in the recent hot stove marketplace, it’s not something that fans can take for granted.
According to Spotrac, the Royals ranked sixth in free agent spending this offseason, committing more than $110 million to eight free agents: pitchers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton and Will Smith, and hitters Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola.
It’s not a group of stars but, highlighted by veteran starters Lugo and Wacha, it’s a group of eight players with recognizable names and a good amount of big league success behind them.
“Everything in this game starts and ends with starting pitching,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said. “That was clearly the No. 1 objective, trying to secure two starting pitchers.”
Many were surprised to see a team like the Royals, one of four that lost more than 100 games in 2023, go on a spending spree during an offseason in which a number of not just winning clubs, but playoff clubs — most notably the reigning World Series champion Rangers — didn’t.
However, one thing to understand is that the Royals, as bad as they were in 2023, probably weren’t 106-loss bad in terms of true talent level. According to their run differential, they were more of a 98-loss team. Coming into last season, their consensus over/under was around 70 wins, marking them as 92-loss bad.
As miserable as last season was, they did post a .423 winning percentage during the second half (a 68-win pace), as they went 15-12 after Sept. 1 and finished on a 12-5 sprint.
These are not exactly shining beacons of hope, but they are data points that improve the baseline from which the Royals were building entering 2024, allowing the team to reframe the way it viewed itself. Statistically, even without change, they would have projected to be better. That in itself justifies a measure of offseason aggression, but it was bolstered by the state of their division and some general payroll retrenchment in their economic tier, which created opportunities that multiplied as the Royals’ interest to add circulated in free agent circles.
“I thought we were going to end up trading for a starting pitcher and it just didn’t evolve. The opportunity wasn’t there,” Picollo said. “But we had done our work from early in June and knew who the free agents would be and how we could put together a rotation that would be competitive again.”
A 70-win baseline, considered in the context of an American League Central landscape that might not yield a 90-win team, is a glimmer of hope. It’s scalable. It allows a GM to go to ownership with a plan to shore up the roster with targeted additions, rather than a plan to blow up everything and begin again from scratch.
Luckily for Picollo, owner John Sherman was on board with the patching approach even though the Royals were one of the teams affected by the ongoing RSN crisis around the game.
“He wasn’t overly concerned about where he feels like the long-term prognosis of where this may go,” Picollo said. “In short term, he said go ahead and do what you got to do. Which was nice to hear. This is his fifth season as the owner, and we haven’t had good seasons. I think his desire to win was very evident, very supportive.”
The key to the Royals’ start has been pitching, especially from what arguably has been baseball’s most consistent rotation. Kansas City ranks third in quality starts, fifth in overall ERA and fourth in rotation ERA.
The quintet of Wacha, Lugo, Brady Singer, Alec Marsh and Cole Ragans rank second in MLB in innings per start. And yet the Royals are one of just three teams without a single hurler who has thrown at least 100 pitches in a game — showing that their efficiency has come as a group, not just from one or two sudden spikes.
The driving force for the unit has been a renewed focus on throwing strikes while keeping the ball down in the zone. The Kansas City rotation ranks 10th in strike percentage — up from 17th last season — and third in pitches classified as low, according to TruMedia.
“You’re constantly watching and see how guys are attacking hitters and what sequences they are using,” Lugo said. “You know what happens when you make quality pitches in the strike zone. It kind of feeds along the whole staff.”
This approach runs counter to the strategy of some teams, like the ever-progressive Tampa Bay Rays, who attack the top of the zone with high-spin fastballs. But even if the Royals’ collective approach doesn’t exactly ride the wave of current trends, it is a classic formula: Pound the zone, work quickly, let your athletes shine on defense.
So far, it’s paid off. Royals pitchers rank just 24th in strikeout rate but are 10th in walk rate and fifth in home run rate. Meanwhile, the defense behind them that rates among the best in MLB in defensive runs saved and the infield leads all teams in out percentage on groundballs.
“Pitching and defense, right, the old adage,” manager Matt Quatraro said. “If you’re throwing a lot of strikes, your defense is on their toes. And especially the closer the games are, the more heightened your awareness is. And I think that’s definitely something that’s building.”
The ability to capitalize on overlooked talent from other teams through analytics-based optimization might be a burgeoning trait in the Royals’ organization. We would need to see more of this to place Kansas City in the same category as the Los Angeles Dodgers, Rays and a handful of other teams. But there have been a couple of key recent success stories.
Last year, Picollo was able to turn a low-risk flier on veteran reliever Aroldis Chapman into the in-season trade that brought back Cole Ragans from Texas. Ragans has been a different, more dominant pitcher for the Royals since being acquired, an emerging ace with stuff so fierce that he’s been likened to Jacob deGrom.
Ragans isn’t the only positive development in the second-chance marketplace. A year ago, reliever James McArthur was a nondescript, former 12th-round pick of the Phillies. He was acquired in a low-level trade last May after Philadelphia designated him for assignment. At that point, McArthur was 26 years old and had just 16 innings above Double-A, during which he posted a 7.31 ERA.
Now, McArthur is the Royals’ closer. He’s saved nine games, including five this season, and has a 35:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
“The process to acquire [McArthur] was great,” Quatraro said. “A lot of input from a lot of different people in the pitching department, the front office, the collaboration to see what they thought he could become. And then once we acquired him, the tweaks to the usage and the grips, and the things in pitch design.
“That part of it is really exciting because that shows a lot of work within different departments to find a diamond in the rough.”
Quatraro, who was hired as manager following the 2022 season, has played a key role in the Royals’ big league development, adding perspective that he and pitching coach Brian Sweeney internalized from their previous stops in Tampa Bay and Cleveland, respectively. It was a needed element of progressiveness for the Royals, who have typically been run along traditional scouting-and-development lines.
“They represented something different than I had been around in the past,” Picollo said. “(There are) more objective decisions being made, more reliant on data. It was really evident to us in spring training that we were going to have to really beef up our [analytical] department to keep up with what their demands were. And it was somewhat uncomfortable at times, but the way Q works and the way he communicates made it easier to digest.”
This bodes well for the Royals as they wade into the roster churn that always happens around MLB as the schedule progresses. All it takes is two or three of these success stories per season to bolster the depth of an organization, helping fill gaps while the minor league system ramps back up to speed.
“This is a good group of young guys that are really good at baseball,” said reliever Will Smith, who has been a member of MLB’s past three World Series champions and broke into the majors with the Royals in 2012. “J.J. and the front office did a great job of bringing in some vets that have had success in the big leagues before, just trying to teach these young guys how to be winners. It’s been fun so far.”
The Royals’ individual leader in defensive runs saved is Bobby Witt Jr. This greatly enhanced aspect of his game can sometimes be overshadowed by his offensive prowess, which went to another level during the second half of 2023 — and stayed there.
“Bobby is really driven and wants to learn. He’s very coachable,” Picollo said. “I think he’s just scratching the surface what he’s going to do.”
From Witt’s debut in 2022 through July 27 of last season, his .724 OPS ranked 145th among 263 hitters with at least 500 plate appearances. Since then, his .956 OPS ranks 11th and he’s in the top 20 in hits, runs, RBIs, average, slugging and stolen bases. And he’s still only 23 years old.
“(The improvement) was just becoming prepared as much as possible each and every day,” Witt said. “Knowing that there’s more than just being ready at game time. You’ve got to make sure your body is right for each and every game. You’ve got to make sure your preparation is right.”
If it sounds simple, that’s no accident. Witt, whose natural, eye-popping gifts are apparent in almost every game he plays, nevertheless had an early tendency to try to do too much — at the plate, in the field and on the bases. Now he operates by a mantra he’s famously sketched onto the equipment he uses in games: simple.
“I feel like I’m at that point where I just really try to control what I can control,” Witt said. “Just go out to the field and take things pitch by pitch and not worry about the results.”
Witt’s stunning transmogrification from potential superstar to actual superstar is what sets this current Royals feel-good start into one where you can’t help but stroke your chin plaintively as you ponder the possibilities. That’s what the impact of one transcendent star can do.
Think of it like this: Let’s say that Picollo’s offseason overhaul of the team’s personnel and the developing strategy on the run-prevention side brings the non-Witt portion of the Kansas City roster to .500. A player putting up numbers like Witt on both sides of the ball is an MVP candidate, one worth anywhere from five to six wins above average in the bWAR framework. (Witt currently leads all AL position players in bWAR).
A player at six wins above average pushes the profile of an 81-81 team to 87-75. In the AL Central, that’s contention. And that’s the approach in K.C. — shore up the holes on the dossier to stabilize the baseline, and hope the upside is provided by Witt and the roster’s other most talented youngsters like Vinnie Pasquantino, M.J. Melendez, Maikel Garcia and Ragans.
All of this is a little cold, though, because Witt’s rise is so much more to the Royals than a WAR total. He is the face of pretty much everything the franchise is trying to do, whether it’s returning to contention or the field or stabilizing the franchise’s future with the downtown ballpark the Royals still hope to get built within the next few years. That’s saying something given the ongoing presence and production of (possible) future Hall of Famer Salvador Perez, the last remaining link to the Royals’ 2015 champions.
“[Witt’s] really special,” Picollo said. “His tools, his ability to take in information and make adjustments along the way just stood out for us. He’s going to continue to get better and better. I don’t think he’s going to hit his prime until he’s 27, 28 — and he’s really, really good right now.”
And Witt will be with the Royals for those peak years, as he agreed to a complicated 11-year, $288.8 million extension over the winter. While the deal has opt-outs that could shorten it or extend it to as long as 14 years, even in its most basic form it ensures he will remain with the Royals for the foreseeable future and into his free agent window. Witt is the cornerstone player the Royals hoped he would be and he seems intent on becoming to the Royals what Patrick Mahomes has become to the Chiefs on the other end of the Truman Sports Complex.
“He wanted to know from us that we were committed financially to putting a good team on the field,” Picollo said. “Now we’re still small market, we’ve still got to be dependent on draft and player development and all those things. But I think in the future, because Bobby’s on the team that’s going to help us secure some players.”
When you are looking for clues about how sustainable the Royals’ early-season play might be, Witt is where you start. He’s really this good, and he’s not going anywhere. It all makes what the Royals are doing now feel more solid.
As for other hints of sustainability, the picture is less clear.
If you’ve watched the Royals on a regular basis this season, there are lots of reasons to be encouraged. They’ve won more than they’ve lost. They’ve often played well in their losses, which is one reason why their run differential actually marks them as unlucky in the win-loss column.
Through it all, there’s one thought that you can’t escape: This team lost 106 games last season, a .346 winning percentage.
During the modern era (since 1900), there have been 103 teams with winning percentages that low, not including the Royals and the Athletics last season. Only eight finished .500 or better the following season: Phillies (1904-05), Cardinals (1913-14), Pirates (1917-18), Athletics (1946-47), Phillies (again, 1961-62), Athletics (again, 1979-80), Orioles (1988-89) and, most recently, the Orioles again (2021-22). The high-water mark for those teams was 87 wins by the ’89 Orioles.
So, yeah, we’re saying there’s a chance the Royals have a winning season in 2024, but the history against that scale of improvement is daunting. If they are to overcome that history, a few things have to happen.
This trick of holding down opponents without an elite strikeout rate is going to have to hold up, at least to some extent. Can it?
According to Fangraphs, the Royals’ team strikeout rate is 87% of the MLB average, ranking 28th. Since 2015, there have been just 22 teams with relative strikeout rates that low. Just four of those 22 finished with park-adjusted staff ERAs better than league average: the Cardinals (2021 and 2022), 2017 Rangers and 2015 Twins. Those four teams were a combined 2.2% better than league average. The Royals’ current park-adjusted ERA is 18% better than average.
That’s not very likely to hold up, especially as the weather warms and home run rates rise. The Royals have allowed homers on just 6.8% of their fly balls so far (third lowest in baseball); the MLB average is 7.9. That’s another number that just won’t hold up for them, but that doesn’t mean it has to collapse, especially if Kauffman Stadium plays big as it often does.
In both areas — walks allowed and dingers — the Royals will need to support the staff with top-of-the-charts defense, which the infield has provided but the outfield will need to match that over the long haul. Of course, that’s the way the team is designed — elite defense has been the backbone of every contending team Kansas City has had.
Finally, the Royals will need exceedingly good health. It’s not a deep organization at the upper minor league levels and, so far, the depth has not been tested. They did not change their Opening Day roster until last week, when they needed a 27th man for a doubleheader against the White Sox.
The good early health has been a boon but no one gets through a season unscathed. The Royals won’t go through the schedule with that core five-man rotation. They will also need way more relievers than the nine who have played so far.
That’s a lot of things that need to keep working in their favor. Still, focusing on that is really beside the point. The real point is that who would have thought, given where last season ended, that we’d even be doing this kind of deep dive into this franchise a mere few months later.
Great defense that supports a consistent pitching staff of strike throwers, good health, an MVP run by Witt — these things are all within the realm of reasonable possibility. And given the state of their division and what we’ve seen of the Royals, the stakes of these developments might actually matter.
They have rekindled the enthusiasm of a fan base always ready to explode when given the slightest reason to do so. By adding at a time when it didn’t seem to make sense, Kansas City has laid a platform on which possibility can be given a chance. It’s amazing the message that is sent when a team actually tries.
“It was just huge,” Witt said. “The veteran leadership we have now with the guys that we signed, and the core group of young guys that we have now coming into themselves. We knew we had this talent the whole time. And now we’re putting it all together.”
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Alden Gonzalez
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t just a baseball team these days. They are a symbol. For fans of the other 29 major league clubs, they are a source of either indignation or longing. For rival owners — and the commissioner who answers to them — they exemplify a widening payroll disparity that must be addressed. For players, and the union that represents them, they are a beacon, embodying all the traits of successful organizations: astute at player development, invested in behind-the-scenes components that make a difference and, most prominently, eager to pump their outsized revenues back into the roster.
The Dodgers employ seven players on nine-figure contracts, with five of those deals reached over the past 15 months. They also have the strongest farm system in the sport, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Their lineup is loaded and their rotation is decorated, but also their future looks bright and their resources seem limitless. And yet their chief architect, Andrew Friedman, isn’t ready for a victory lap.
“It just doesn’t really land with me in that way,” Friedman, entering his 11th year as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, said in a recent phone conversation. “I think once I get fired, once there’s like real distance between being mired in the day-to-day and when I’m not, I will be able to look back at those things. But for us right now, it all feels very precarious.
“We’ve seen a lot of really successful organizations that fall off a cliff and take a while to build back. We don’t take any of it for granted.”
Nothing lasts forever. Every empire has fallen, every dynasty has faded. But what the Dodgers have built feels uniquely sustainable. A glaring reminder came last month, when Major League Baseball’s commissioner, Rob Manfred, was asked whether outrage over the Dodgers’ spending reminded him of how fans felt about the star-laden New York Yankees teams of the early 2000s, commonly referred to as “The Evil Empire.”
The current Dodgers, Manfred said, “are probably more profitable on a percentage basis than the old Yankees were, meaning it could be more sustainable, so it is more of a problem.”
The word “problem” depends on one’s perspective. Dodgers fans certainly wouldn’t describe it as such. As the team prepares to begin its season on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs in Japan — a country in which they are revered, in a series sponsored by their ownership group — it’s worth understanding how the Dodgers got here.
It was the result of their process, but it also required several monumental steps over the past dozen years.
Below is a look at their biggest leaps.
Jan. 28, 2013: They signed a media megadeal
At the start of 2013, the Dodgers, less than a year into Guggenheim’s ownership, landed a massive local-media deal spanning 25 years and valued at $8.35 billion, or $334 million annually on average. But for the rest of that decade, it qualified as a massive headache. A stalemate between AT&T and Charter Communications meant more than half the Southern California market was unable to access the team’s channel, SportsNet LA, from 2014 to 2020.
As the impasse continued and tensions escalated, the Dodgers’ media deal came to symbolize a growing clash between sports channels that demand higher fees and content distributors wary of making customers pay for content they do not consume. Now — five years after the two sides finally struck a deal, airing Dodgers games on AT&T video platforms and nearly doubling the number of households to more than 3 million — it exemplifies a growing disparity that is rattling the industry.
The Dodgers’ local-media deal runs longer than most and is more expensive than any other, but here’s the kicker, according to a source familiar with the deal: While most regional sports networks are set up as subsidiaries underneath a corporate entity, leaving them in the lurch when they fall into hard times — like Diamond Sports Group, a former Sinclair subsidiary that was forced into bankruptcy when debt mounted and subscribers fell off — the Dodgers have complete corporate backing from Charter, a massive media conglomerate.
So not only do the Dodgers generate far more in local media than any of their competitors, but at a time when the linear-cable model is drying up and teams face increasing uncertainty with RSN contracts that represent about 20% of revenues, their deal is relatively iron-clad. That is especially valuable considering they’re in a division where three teams — the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies — have lost their local media deals.
Dec. 21, 2018: They swung a trade that streamlined their payroll
Four days before Christmas in 2018, the Dodgers executed a rare salary dump. Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and cash were sent to the Cincinnati Reds for Homer Bailey, who was promptly released, and two young players who would later help trigger blockbuster acquisitions, Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. The prospect component was secondary; the real benefit was the money saved, which gave the Dodgers additional wiggle room under the luxury-tax threshold and helped them remain debt-service compliant the following year.
In a bigger sense, it was the culmination of a multi-year effort by the front office to rid the Dodgers of bloated contracts and streamline a payroll that ultimately became burdened by massive deals for players like Kemp, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Adrián González. The Dodgers’ luxury-tax payroll dropped by about $50 million from 2017 to 2019, by which point only two players — A.J. Pollock and Kenta Maeda — were signed beyond the next two years. In Friedman’s mind, the Dodgers were now free to be aggressive.
“For our first four to five years, it was as much about trying to be as competitive as we could be while getting our future payroll outlook in a better spot,” he said. “At the end of the 2019 season was the first time we had reached that point and were in position to be more aggressive at the top of the free-agent class.”
Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon headlined that offseason’s free-agent class. The Dodgers didn’t come away with either of them.
They would soon make up for it.
Feb. 10, 2020: Mookie Betts became available — and they pounced
The Dodgers engaged in initial trade conversations around Betts leading up to the trade deadline in 2019, but then the Boston Red Sox won five of seven against the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees near the end of July, and suddenly Betts was unavailable. A tone was set nonetheless.
“We knew, with him going into his last year of control, that there was a chance they would look to trade him going into that offseason,” Friedman recalled. “There was a switch in their baseball-operations department, and Chaim Bloom was hired, who I have a good relationship with. I spent a lot of time talking to him in the beginning. For him, it was about getting his feet on the ground and understanding the organizational direction of what they were doing. And it wasn’t until January where he opened the door to engage.”
Friedman, who gave Bloom his first front-office job in Tampa, ultimately landed Betts and David Price for Alex Verdugo, Downs and another position-player prospect in Connor Wong on Feb. 10, 2020. Friedman had long coveted Betts not just for his supreme talent, but for his work ethic and competitive edge and how those qualities seemed to elevate those around him. Within five months, Betts agreed to a 12-year, $365 million extension, eschewing free agency.
March 17, 2022: Freddie Freeman became a surprise free agent addition
When Freeman hit free agency after winning the 2021 World Series with the Braves, Friedman assumed he would simply return to Atlanta. So did everyone else — Freeman included. He was a homegrown star poised to someday get his number retired and have a statue outside Truist Park. But initial conversations barely progressed, and the Dodgers saw an opening.
On the afternoon of Dec. 1, moments before the sport would shut down in the midst of a bitter labor fight, Dodgers players, coaches and executives gathered for Betts’ wedding in L.A. Friedman, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts and then-third baseman Justin Turner briefly stepped away to call Freeman. They wanted to leave a lasting impression before an owner-imposed lockout would prohibit communication between teams and players. They wanted to be the last club he heard from.
The message, essentially: Don’t forget about us.
Friedman said he “got off the call feeling like it was incredibly unlikely” that the Dodgers would land Freeman. But when the lockout ended on March 10, the Braves and Freeman’s then-agent, Casey Close, still couldn’t bridge the gap, either on length or value. Four days later, the Braves traded for another star first baseman in Matt Olson, leaving Freeman stunned. Three days after that, he pivoted to the Dodgers, coming to terms on a six-year, $162 million contract.
2022-23 offseason: They sat out the shortstop market
When Corey Seager became a free agent at the end of the 2021 season, the Dodgers had a ready-made replacement in Trea Turner, who had been acquired with Max Scherzer the previous summer in a deal that sent Gray and three other minor leaguers to the Washington Nationals. But when Turner himself became a free agent a year later, the Dodgers did nothing to shore up one of the sport’s most important positions.
Turner became part of a historic class of free-agent shortstops, along with Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The Dodgers didn’t pursue any of them, even though they didn’t have a clear replacement. The Dodgers could have avoided years of uncertainty at this position by locking in a proven star, but doing so was hardly entertained.
The reason is now obvious.
“With where we were commitment-wise,” Friedman said, “and with Shohei [Ohtani] coming up the next offseason, it was just a higher bar to clear for us to do something that would have any negative ability for us to pursue Shohei.”
Dec. 11, 2023: Ohtani chose them
By the time Ohtani became a free agent in November of 2023, the Dodgers’ roster was loaded but their payroll was manageable, with only Betts and Freeman guaranteed beyond the next two seasons. The Dodgers could boast a contending team — with two franchise pillars and a wealth of young talent — but also pitch Ohtani on the promise of adding other impact players around him, regardless of his monstrous contract. It worked.
Now, Dec. 11, 2023, stands as one of the most monumental dates in Dodgers history. Ohtani not only joined the Dodgers that day, but he agreed to defer more than 97% of his 10-year, $700 million contract. The Dodgers have become infamous for their propensity to defer money, a mechanism to provide players with a higher guarantee but, given the ability to invest deferred commitments, is mostly beneficial to the Dodgers (though perhaps not as much as one might think).
Ohtani’s deal was followed by the addition of two frontline starters — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who landed a contract worth $325 million, and Tyler Glasnow, who was acquired via trade and subsequently signed a five-year extension worth close to $140 million. Ohtani didn’t pitch in 2024, but he put together one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history, starting the 50/50 club and becoming the first full-time designated hitter to win an MVP.
Just as important, from the Dodgers’ perspective: He generated massive amounts of revenue.
Ohtani had MLB’s top-selling jersey by a wide margin. With him on the roster, the Dodgers struck sponsorship agreements with 11 different Japanese companies during the 2024 season. Two Ohtani bobblehead giveaways prompted fans to line up outside Dodger Stadium up to 10 hours before the first pitch. Japanese guided tours through the ballpark — a twice-a-day, four-day-a-week addition — never relented. The gift shops frequently had lines out the door.
The Dodgers won’t disclose how much additional revenue they generated from Ohtani last year, but team president Stan Kasten has repeatedly said it blew away even their most optimistic projections.
Oct. 9, 2024: They survived Game 4 of the NLDS
It’s amazing, given the space the Dodgers currently occupy, that five months ago they carried a reputation as, well, chokers. Their championship at the end of the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season had been thoroughly dismissed for its unconventionality. More prevalent in the general public’s mind was 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023, seasons that ended with talented teams getting eliminated early by inferior opponents.
The 2024 season was quickly headed in that direction. On Oct. 9, the Dodgers trailed a Padres club that was widely considered more well-rounded two-games-to-one in the best-of-five National League Division Series. Their depleted rotation had run out of starters. They would stage a bullpen game with their season on the line. And they would survive. The Dodgers shut out the Padres in Game 4, shut them out again in Game 5, then cruised past the New York Mets and Yankees to capture their first full-season championship since 1988.
What followed was a second straight offseason in which the Dodgers added practically every player they wanted. That included a frontline starter (Blake Snell), two corner outfielders (Teoscar Hernandez and Michael Conforto), three premium bullpen pieces (Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Blake Treinen), two fan favorites (Clayton Kershaw and Kiké Hernández) and one of the most alluring pitching prospects in a generation (Roki Sasaki). A key utility player (Tommy Edman) was also extended. The cost: another $466.5 million in guaranteed money, immediately after an offseason in which they guaranteed close to $1.4 billion in signings and extensions.
Roberts, fresh off a record-setting extension, has talked about how he might have been fired had he not navigated his Dodgers past the Padres last fall. Friedman acknowledged that the Dodgers probably don’t spend as much if they don’t win the World Series and generate the extra revenue that comes from it, though he called that “a lazy guess.”
Still, when asked how often he has thought about how life would be different if the Dodgers hadn’t won Game 4 of the 2024 NLDS, Friedman said: “Zero minutes.”
“We have been on the good side of those games and on the bad side of those games,” he added, “and I’ve spent zero minutes thinking about what the world would look like if the outcome had been different.”
All that matters now is a reality that exhilarates their fans and infuriates everyone else: The Dodgers look about as insurmountable as a franchise can be in this sport.
The Boston Bruins‘ approach to the trade deadline indicated that perhaps management thought this wasn’t their year, and they would add some future assets for a quick reload this offseason.
But as the chips fall on Monday, the Bruins still have a chance to make the playoffs.
That all begins with a game against the lottery-bound Buffalo Sabres Monday night (7 p.m., ESPN+). A win in that one closes the gap between Boston and the current first wild card, the New York Rangers. The Rangers have 72 points and 30 regulation wins through 68 games, while Boston is at 68 and 23 through 68.
After Buffalo, it’s a road trip through Nevada and California (Golden Knights on Thursday, Sharks on Saturday, Kings on Sunday and Ducks on Wednesday, March 26). All told, the Bruins will play teams currently in playoff position in six of the final 13 games after the matchup with the Sabres; the final five, in particular, could be a spot to make up ground, with two against the injury-struck Devils along with single games against the Sabres, Blackhawks and Penguins.
To be clear, this would be a long shot; in addition to going on a hot streak, the Bruins will need to jump ahead of four teams (which would all need to get cold, in this hypothetical). Stathletes isn’t so sure all of that will fall into place, giving the Bruins a 2.4% chance of making the postseason. But stranger things have happened in recent seasons!
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 New York Rangers
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Monday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Sunday’s scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings 3, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Colorado Avalanche 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Edmonton Oilers 3, New York Rangers 1
New York Islanders 4, Florida Panthers 2
St. Louis Blues 7, Anaheim Ducks 2
Utah Hockey Club 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Winnipeg Jets 3, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: vs. PHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 95.7
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88.2
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 20.2%
Tragic number: 32
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: @ WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 5.3%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. BUF (Monday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 73.2
Next game: @ BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 21
Metro Division
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 117.5
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 94.1
Next game: @ CBJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 95.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 86.8
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 53.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 87.0
Next game: vs. NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 16.7%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 84.5
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 78.4
Next game: vs. NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.8%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 77.2
Next game: @ TB (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.5%
Tragic number: 21
Central Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118.2
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 108.1
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 96.7
Next game: vs. LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 91%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 88.0
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 32.5%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 86.9
Next game: @ EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 17%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 72.1
Next game: vs. STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 60.0
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 7
Pacific Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 100.4
Next game: vs. UTA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 41.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 89.6
Next game: @ TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 18.7%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 76.0
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 1
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
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