What are Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer hoping for at the locals, and what might it mean for a general election?
Many Conservative councillors face certain defeat on 2 May. The party will lose control of councils at the same time. The scale of this setback, so close to the general election, is the main consideration.
The national polls paint a gloomy picture; public confidence in the government is low, only a quarter of voters intend to vote Conservative. The Opposition is riding high, some commentators reckon Labour is on course for a large Commons majority.
Recent parliamentary by-elections largely confirm this, with record swings against the Conservatives and Labour performing strongly.
The one sliver of hope for Rishi Sunak’s party might be that national polls exaggerate support for Reform and public distaste for the Conservatives.
At stake are more than 2,600 seats across 107 English councils. Voters in London are choosing both the Assembly and Mayor, where Sadiq Khan is pursuing and probably securing an unprecedented third term.
Mayoral voting here, and for ten other so-called “super mayors”, including West Midlands and Greater Manchester, is now by “first past the post” rather than the Supplementary Vote.
The same reform applies to the selection of 37 Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs). It is their re-election which guarantees electors across England and Wales have a vote this time.
Most of the contests next week relate to the 2021 elections.
Then, the Conservatives were riding high, Brexit was done and a successful COVID vaccine rolled-out.
An estimate of the national equivalent vote (NEV) based on those results, put Boris Johnson’s party on 40%, its highest rating since 2008.
Labour was ten points back and instead of gaining council seats from the governing party, usual at this stage of the parliamentary cycle, it was losing them.
Conservative mayors were re-elected in West Midlands and Tees Valley and the party won 30 PCC elections.
Fast forward three years, via Mr Johnson’s fall from grace, Liz Truss’s blink of an eye premiership and Mr Sunak’s unopposed elevation, we find the Conservatives in freefall. Sky News’ poll tracker currently puts them on 23.5%.
That’s a drop of over sixteen percentage points from May 2021.
By contrast, Labour is heading upwards, from 30% to 43.5% now.
This is a 15-point swing from Conservative to Labour. Conservative councillors sitting on 30% majorities or less over Labour rivals feel vulnerable. The Conservatives are only defending 18 councils, but if things are this bad then they could lose half of them.
But will the Conservatives and Labour perform like this on 2 May? Another measure of electoral support, gleaned from council by-elections, says not.
Over the past year there have been 159 council by-elections across England and Wales. These too have been mostly dire for the Conservatives. Asked to defend 46 vacancies, the party has lost 28 of them, a 61% failure rate.
However, half of these losses are to the Liberal Democrats. The Greens have made five gains, only one fewer than Labour’s total. Moreover, the Conservatives have gained five seats from Labour.
This hardly supports the view Labour are a shoo-in for the next general election.
Consider also changes in vote share in these contests. The average fall in the Conservative vote from 2021 is about 11 percentage points, putting them closer to a nationwide 30% and not 23% as the polls are suggesting.
Similarly, local voting data puts Labour in the range 36-40%, and not comfortably over that figure.
Which of these indicators, national polls or local voting, works best in explaining events on 2 May remains to be seen, but it does require setting relatively wide benchmarks for what constitutes good, indifferent or bad performances.
What are the Conservatives hoping for?
Should the Conservatives suffer minimal losses, say 100 council seats and control of super-marginal councils like Dorset, Gloucester, Redditch and Thurrock, it will claim that as a victory.
Should losses rise to 250 seats, council control is lost in Harlow, North East Lincolnshire and a mayoral incumbent is defeated, the Conservatives might have taken a step backwards, but the damage inflicted is not as great as many were expecting.
Losses of around 500 seats, about half the seats it is defending and possibly half of its 18 councils too, will destabilise the party.
Most likely, Andy Street loses in West Midlands and possibly Ben Houchen in Tees Valley also. A sizeable chunk of the country will see Conservative PCCs replaced by Labour ones.
Inevitable comparisons with crushing local election defeats in the run-up to the 1997 general election defeat will convince some of its backbenchers to demand yet another change of leader.
But, it’s not plain sailing for Labour.
The party has faced an exodus of about a hundred councillors, mostly regarding events in the Middle East, but some against Sir Keir Starmer’s move towards the centre ground.
Inevitably, Labour’s performance in key areas will be assessed in light of its task in winning power at Westminster. It needs to win in Dudley, one of only three metropolitan boroughs still in Conservative hands.
Last year the two parties tied in votes and seats, and results this time will reveal if Labour is on track.
The Conservatives are running hard in the inaugural battle for East Midlands mayor. They have selected Ben Bradley, MP for Mansfield, one of eight former Labour seats in the region captured in 2017 or 2019.
The North West offers challenges. George Galloway’s victory in the Rochdale by-election sees his Workers’ Party now contesting for votes in Labour wards.
There is internal party strife in Burnley, now the most marginal Conservative seat in the country, with some Labour councillors preferring status as Independents. Labour’s councillors in Pendle last month resigned from the party and in some cases are standing against their former party at the local elections.
Like it or not, Sir Keir faces comparison with Sir Tony Blair, electorally the most successful Labour leader; someone who took on and beat the Conservatives across swathes of the midlands and southern England.
Labour has to perform in councils like Harlow, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Swindon and Redditch. For good measure, Labour this time could reach parts hitherto denied them.
It won in Worthing in 2022 and now it is poised to take control of neighbouring Adur council too.
Rushmoor, a district council covering Aldershot and Farnborough, has been Conservative controlled for much of its 51-year existence. Labour gains this time could oust the Conservatives and even take power itself for the first time.
What are Labour’s benchmarks for success?
About 350 seat gains for Labour consolidates its position as the largest party of local government, but if it wants favourable comparisons with the Blair-era it should aim higher. Fewer gains, say around 200 seats, suggests the national polls are over-estimating its lead over the Conservatives.
If the gains are lower still then internal pressures will mount and betting on a Labour majority will reflect that, despite the party doubtless gaining another victory at the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election.
But Labour can ill-afford unfavourable comparisons of its performance against those of the Liberal Democrats and even the Greens.
What about the Lib Dems?
The Liberal Democrats could become major players after the next general election if Labour falls short of a Commons’ majority. Sir Ed Davey’s party should secure control of Wokingham and perhaps Dorset.
Seat gains of about 150 and upwards will demonstrate a real threat to the Conservatives.
And the Greens?
Last year the Greens secured their first council, Mid Suffolk, and are advancing in councils like Worcester, but a real boost may lie in Bristol.
The whole council is up for re-election with the Labour-owned city mayoralty now abandoned. Greens are the largest party and need gains from Labour and the Conservatives to nudge towards an overall majority.
Labour is targeting Conservative seats and is hopeful it can become the largest party.
This is only one of 107 councils, but the bragging rights should Labour or Green secure a majority are immense.
Tulip Siddiq has sought to distance herself from her aunt, deposed Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, claiming they never spoke about politics.
But Sky News can reveal that in a blog written by the now City minister she boasted about how close they were politically and published photos of them together.
In posts written in late 2008 and early 2009, when she was a Labour activist, Ms Siddiq described campaigning with her aunt in Bangladesh’s general election and celebrating her victory.
Our disclosure coincides with a new report in The Times which reveals how the embattled MP’s Labour Party flyers were found in the palace in Dhaka that belonged to her aunt, who was ousted in a coup last year.
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Labour’s Tulip Siddiq risks losing job
The blog is headed: “Tulip Siddiq, member of the Labour Party action team in Bloomsbury and King’s Cross”, and in a post on January 11, 2009, Ms Siddiq told supporters: “I was really busy in Bangladesh as you probably gathered…
“I’ve put up photos of Sheikh Hasina’s post-election press conference at Bangladesh-China Friendship Conference Centre in Dhaka.
“The most significant element of this press conference for me was Sheikh Hasina’s insistence that all the political parties in Bangladesh need to work together for the welfare of the country.
“It is no secret that past governments have not worked with the other political parties and we need to change this trend.
“The prime minister emphasised that the Awami League does not support the ‘politics of vengeance’ which is encouraging so let’s hope that a new political culture is created this year.”
She added: “Here’s an action shot of me with the prime minister at the press conference. I’m not sure what I was saying but it probably wasn’t that interesting!”
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‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’
In a post on January 21, 2009, she wrote: “I was fortunate enough to travel with Sheikh Hasina in her car during election day.
“The prime minister-elect (Prime Ministerial candidate at the time!) drove to several constituencies in Dhaka and stopped quickly at each one to meet the parliamentary candidate or speak to the voters.”
Describing traveling in her aunt’s car, she wrote: “You can see all my photos from election day here… I apologise for the poor quality of some of the pictures. I was taking photos from inside her car which is actually quite difficult!”
“You’ll also see a photo of Dhaka Central Jail. I took that photo because Sheikh Hasina told me that this jail was practically her second home for most of her childhood as her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was under arrest for many years.
“She told me that she visited him with the rest of her family every weekend, so it was a very familiar landmark.”
Earlier, on December 29, 2008, under the heading “Victory!”, Ms Siddiq wrote: “The Awami League have won the elections by a landslide! Sheikh Hasina is the prime minister-elect! I am ecstatic!
“I’ve been on the campaign trail with Sheikh Hasina all day so I don’t really have the energy to write much more but I will do so tomorrow.
“However, I can’t resist uploading a couple of photos. This is Sheikh Hasina’s face just before she heard the results from an unwinnable constituency.
“Here she is after she heard that the Awami League hard work had paid off in that seat.”
The Times reports that political literature of Ms Siddiq, Sir Keir Starmer’s anti-corruption minister, was found at the heavily guarded palace in Dhaka, covered by dust and debris.
At the top of a staircase were items produced by Ms Sidddiq. One was a thank you note to local Labour Party members following her election as MP for Hampstead and Kilburn.
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Another was her annual report for 2022, inviting readers to learn about her help for those affected by the cost-of-living crisis.
The new disclosures will pile further pressure on Ms Siddiq and lead to further calls on the prime minister to sack her.
Many Labour MPs believe her ministerial career is now hanging by a thread.
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On Sky News earlier, cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Trevor Phillips Ms Siddiq was right to submit herself to an ethics investigation over corruption allegations and strongly hinted she would be sacked if found to have broken the ministerial code.
Asked whether she should stand down until she is cleared of impropriety, Mr Kyle said: “I think she’s done exactly the right thing. She’s referred herself that the inquiry needs to go through. I think that that’s the appropriate way forward.
“I’m giving it all the space it needs to do. I’ll be listening for the outcome as the Prime Minister will be.
“There was a process underway and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”
Sky News has approached Ms Siddiq and the Labour Party for comment.
There comes a point in the arc of most political scandals after which a resignation risks prompting more questions than it answers.
The danger for Tulip Siddiq – and by extension Sir Keir Starmer – is that threshold may about to be passed, if it hasn’t been already.
In other words, if she goes now, plenty will wonder why it didn’t happen sooner and why Downing Street allowed the story to gather pace and inflict further damage before acting.
The answer to this is partly because nothing has emerged so far that’s such an explicit rule break that it would trigger an automatic sacking or resignation.
That means the affair still resides – just about – in the box marked “looks bad” rather than the more sinister one marked “is bad”.
The standards adviser has been asked to “establish the facts” – a classic political technique to try and smother a story by announcing an inquiry.
Read more:
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Cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Sky News the outcome of that exercise “will be stuck to”, meaning the junior Treasury minister will be relieved of her responsibilities if a breach of the government’s code of conduct is identified.
But some within Labour are contrasting this case with the rapid resignation of Louise Haigh as transport secretary after Sky News revealed she had pleaded guilty to an offence in court shortly before becoming an MP.
They suggest the key difference is that Ms Haigh was relatively left-wing and at odds with some in Downing Street, while Ms Siddiq is a constituency neighbour and ally of the prime minister.
“Keir Starmer has been consistently ruthless against people perceived to be more on the left of the party and very lenient with people perceived to be more on the right of the party,” said former Jeremy Corbyn adviser Andrew Fisher.
A counter to this is that Ms Siddiq is not a cabinet minister.
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Minister suggests Siddiq could lose job
That said, she does oversee efforts to combat financial crime, money laundering and corruption – three activities she is now finding herself linked to, albeit in a different country.
The fact she pulled out from the chancellor’s trip to China this weekend also opens an easy attack line that the story is already stopping her from doing her job.
So where does this go now?
There is a chance that something may emerge that forces an immediate departure.
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Engaging the standards adviser may also backfire if a technical breach potentially relating to declarations or conflicts of interest is found.
But a third option is potentially most damaging for the government – that Ms Siddiq becomes politically paralysed by the volume of stories surfacing and is forced to step down simply to stem the flow.
The government will “mainline AI into the veins” of the UK, with plans being unveiled today by Sir Keir Starmer.
The prime minister is set to promise investment, jobs and economic growth due to a boom in the sector.
It comes as his government battles against allegations they are mismanaging the economy and stymied growth with the budget last autumn.
The government’s announcement claims that, if AI is “fully embraced”, it could bring £47bn to the economy every year.
And it says that £14bn is set to be invested by the private sector, bringing around 13,000 jobs.
The majority of those would be construction roles to build new data centres and other infrastructure, with a smaller number of technical jobs once the work is finished.
Sir Keir said: “Artificial Intelligence will drive incredible change in our country. From teachers personalising lessons, to supporting small businesses with their record-keeping, to speeding up planning applications, it has the potential to transform the lives of working people.
“But the AI industry needs a government that is on their side, one that won’t sit back and let opportunities slip through its fingers. And in a world of fierce competition, we cannot stand by. We must move fast and take action to win the global race.”
The prime minister added that he wants Britain to be “the world leader” in AI.
The government announcement said: “Today’s plan mainlines AI into the veins of this enterprising nation.”
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To achieve this, the government will implement all 50 recommendations made by Matt Clifford following his review last year.
This includes creating new AI “growth zones” – the first of which is set to be in Culham, Oxfordshire, where the UK’s Atomic Energy Authority is based.
These zones will get faster planning decisions and extra power infrastructure.
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Is the AI boom turning into a market bubble?
The government also wants to increase UK computing power 20-fold by 2030, including by building a brand-new supercomputer.
Labour cancelled a planned supercomputer when it entered office, as it claimed it wasn’t funded. The new venture is expected to be a joint public-private project.
The government says its plans will have three pillars. This includes laying the foundations with new AI growth zones and the new supercomputer.
The second is to boost AI take up by the public and private sectors. New pilots for AI in the public service are set to be announced, and Sir Keir has written to all cabinet ministers, telling them to drive AI adoption and growth.
And the third pillar is keeping ahead of the pack, with the government set to establish a “team” to keep the UK “at the forefront of emerging technology”.
The announcement was welcomed by a slew of technology bosses.
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Chris Lehane, the chief global affairs officer at OpenAI, which released ChatGPT, said: “The government’s AI action plan – led by the prime minister and [Science] Secretary Peter Kyle – recognises where AI development is headed and sets the UK on the right path to benefit from its growth.
“The UK has an enormous national resource in the talent of its people, institutions and businesses which together, can leverage AI to advance the country’s national interest.”
The shadow secretary for science, innovation and technology, Alan Mak, said: “Labour’s plan will not support the UK to become a tech and science superpower. They’re delivering analogue government in a digital age.
“Shaping a successful AI future requires investment, but in the six months leading up to this plan, Labour cut £1.3bn in funding for Britain’s first next-generation supercomputer and AI research whilst imposing a national insurance jobs tax that will cost business in the digital sector £1.66bn.
“AI does have the potential to transform public services, but Labour’s economic mismanagement and uninspiring plan will mean Britain is left behind.”
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