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Many Conservative councillors face certain defeat on 2 May. The party will lose control of councils at the same time. The scale of this setback, so close to the general election, is the main consideration.

The national polls paint a gloomy picture; public confidence in the government is low, only a quarter of voters intend to vote Conservative. The Opposition is riding high, some commentators reckon Labour is on course for a large Commons majority.

Recent parliamentary by-elections largely confirm this, with record swings against the Conservatives and Labour performing strongly.

The one sliver of hope for Rishi Sunak’s party might be that national polls exaggerate support for Reform and public distaste for the Conservatives.

At stake are more than 2,600 seats across 107 English councils. Voters in London are choosing both the Assembly and Mayor, where Sadiq Khan is pursuing and probably securing an unprecedented third term.

Mayoral voting here, and for ten other so-called “super mayors”, including West Midlands and Greater Manchester, is now by “first past the post” rather than the Supplementary Vote.

The same reform applies to the selection of 37 Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs). It is their re-election which guarantees electors across England and Wales have a vote this time.

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Most of the contests next week relate to the 2021 elections.

Then, the Conservatives were riding high, Brexit was done and a successful COVID vaccine rolled-out.

An estimate of the national equivalent vote (NEV) based on those results, put Boris Johnson’s party on 40%, its highest rating since 2008.

Labour was ten points back and instead of gaining council seats from the governing party, usual at this stage of the parliamentary cycle, it was losing them.

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Conservative mayors were re-elected in West Midlands and Tees Valley and the party won 30 PCC elections.

Fast forward three years, via Mr Johnson’s fall from grace, Liz Truss’s blink of an eye premiership and Mr Sunak’s unopposed elevation, we find the Conservatives in freefall. Sky News’ poll tracker currently puts them on 23.5%.

That’s a drop of over sixteen percentage points from May 2021.

By contrast, Labour is heading upwards, from 30% to 43.5% now.

This is a 15-point swing from Conservative to Labour. Conservative councillors sitting on 30% majorities or less over Labour rivals feel vulnerable. The Conservatives are only defending 18 councils, but if things are this bad then they could lose half of them.

But will the Conservatives and Labour perform like this on 2 May? Another measure of electoral support, gleaned from council by-elections, says not.

Over the past year there have been 159 council by-elections across England and Wales. These too have been mostly dire for the Conservatives. Asked to defend 46 vacancies, the party has lost 28 of them, a 61% failure rate.

However, half of these losses are to the Liberal Democrats. The Greens have made five gains, only one fewer than Labour’s total. Moreover, the Conservatives have gained five seats from Labour.

This hardly supports the view Labour are a shoo-in for the next general election.

Consider also changes in vote share in these contests. The average fall in the Conservative vote from 2021 is about 11 percentage points, putting them closer to a nationwide 30% and not 23% as the polls are suggesting.

Similarly, local voting data puts Labour in the range 36-40%, and not comfortably over that figure.

Which of these indicators, national polls or local voting, works best in explaining events on 2 May remains to be seen, but it does require setting relatively wide benchmarks for what constitutes good, indifferent or bad performances.

What are the Conservatives hoping for?

Should the Conservatives suffer minimal losses, say 100 council seats and control of super-marginal councils like Dorset, Gloucester, Redditch and Thurrock, it will claim that as a victory.

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Should losses rise to 250 seats, council control is lost in Harlow, North East Lincolnshire and a mayoral incumbent is defeated, the Conservatives might have taken a step backwards, but the damage inflicted is not as great as many were expecting.

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Losses of around 500 seats, about half the seats it is defending and possibly half of its 18 councils too, will destabilise the party.

Most likely, Andy Street loses in West Midlands and possibly Ben Houchen in Tees Valley also. A sizeable chunk of the country will see Conservative PCCs replaced by Labour ones.

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Inevitable comparisons with crushing local election defeats in the run-up to the 1997 general election defeat will convince some of its backbenchers to demand yet another change of leader.

But, it’s not plain sailing for Labour.

The party has faced an exodus of about a hundred councillors, mostly regarding events in the Middle East, but some against Sir Keir Starmer’s move towards the centre ground.

Inevitably, Labour’s performance in key areas will be assessed in light of its task in winning power at Westminster. It needs to win in Dudley, one of only three metropolitan boroughs still in Conservative hands.

Last year the two parties tied in votes and seats, and results this time will reveal if Labour is on track.

The Conservatives are running hard in the inaugural battle for East Midlands mayor. They have selected Ben Bradley, MP for Mansfield, one of eight former Labour seats in the region captured in 2017 or 2019.

The North West offers challenges. George Galloway’s victory in the Rochdale by-election sees his Workers’ Party now contesting for votes in Labour wards.

There is internal party strife in Burnley, now the most marginal Conservative seat in the country, with some Labour councillors preferring status as Independents. Labour’s councillors in Pendle last month resigned from the party and in some cases are standing against their former party at the local elections.

Like it or not, Sir Keir faces comparison with Sir Tony Blair, electorally the most successful Labour leader; someone who took on and beat the Conservatives across swathes of the midlands and southern England.

Labour has to perform in councils like Harlow, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Swindon and Redditch. For good measure, Labour this time could reach parts hitherto denied them.

It won in Worthing in 2022 and now it is poised to take control of neighbouring Adur council too.

Rushmoor, a district council covering Aldershot and Farnborough, has been Conservative controlled for much of its 51-year existence. Labour gains this time could oust the Conservatives and even take power itself for the first time.

What are Labour’s benchmarks for success?

About 350 seat gains for Labour consolidates its position as the largest party of local government, but if it wants favourable comparisons with the Blair-era it should aim higher. Fewer gains, say around 200 seats, suggests the national polls are over-estimating its lead over the Conservatives.

If the gains are lower still then internal pressures will mount and betting on a Labour majority will reflect that, despite the party doubtless gaining another victory at the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election.

But Labour can ill-afford unfavourable comparisons of its performance against those of the Liberal Democrats and even the Greens.

What about the Lib Dems?

The Liberal Democrats could become major players after the next general election if Labour falls short of a Commons’ majority. Sir Ed Davey’s party should secure control of Wokingham and perhaps Dorset.

Seat gains of about 150 and upwards will demonstrate a real threat to the Conservatives.

And the Greens?

Last year the Greens secured their first council, Mid Suffolk, and are advancing in councils like Worcester, but a real boost may lie in Bristol.

The whole council is up for re-election with the Labour-owned city mayoralty now abandoned. Greens are the largest party and need gains from Labour and the Conservatives to nudge towards an overall majority.

Labour is targeting Conservative seats and is hopeful it can become the largest party.

This is only one of 107 councils, but the bragging rights should Labour or Green secure a majority are immense.

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‘My lawyers are ready’ for questions about corruption claims, ex-minister tells Sky News

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'My lawyers are ready' for questions about corruption claims, ex-minister tells Sky News

Tulip Siddiq has told Sky News her “lawyers are ready” to handle any formal questions about allegations she is involved in corruption in Bangladesh.

Asked whether she regrets apparent links with the Bangladeshi Awami League political party, Ms Siddiq said “why don’t you look at my legal letter and see if I have any questions to answer… [the Bangladeshi authorities] have not once contacted me and I’m waiting to hear from them”.

The London MP resigned as a Treasury minister in January after being named in several corruption inquiries in Bangladesh.

In her first public comments since leaving government, Ms Siddiq said “there’s been allegations for months on end and no one has contacted me”.

Last month, the interim leader of Bangladesh told Sky News the MP had “wealth left behind” in the country “and should be made responsible”.

Lawyers acting for Ms Siddiq wrote to the Bangladeshi Anti Corruption Commission (ACC) several weeks ago saying the allegations were “false and vexatious”.

The letter said the ACC must put questions to Ms Siddiq “by no later than 25 March 2025” or “we shall presume that there are no legitimate questions to answer”.

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Staff from the NCA visited Bangladesh as part of initial work to support the interim government in the country.

In a post online today, the former minister said the deadline had expired and the authorities had not replied.

Sky News has approached the Bangladeshi government for comment.

The allegations against Ms Siddiq are focused on links to her aunt Sheikh Hasina – who served as the prime minister of Bangladesh for 20 years.

Ms Hasina was forced to flee the country in August following weeks of deadly protests.

She is accused of becoming an autocrat, with politically-motivated arrests, extra-judicial killings and other abuses allegedly happening on her watch. Hasina claims it’s all a political witch hunt.

Electrocuted on their genitals and mouths sewn up: Inside Bangladesh’s ‘death squad’ jails

Ms Siddiq was found to have lived in several London properties that had links back to the Awami League political party that her aunt still leads.

She referred herself to the prime minister’s standards adviser Sir Laurie Magnus who said he had “not identified evidence of improprieties” but added it was “regrettable” Ms Siddiq had not been more alert to the “potential reputational risks” of the ties to her aunt.

Ms Siddiq said continuing in her role would be “a distraction” for the government but insisted she had done nothing wrong.

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Former New York governor advised OKX over $505M federal probe: Report

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Former New York governor advised OKX over 5M federal probe: Report

Former New York governor advised OKX over 5M federal probe: Report

Cryptocurrency exchange OKX reportedly hired former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to advise it over the federal probe that resulted in the firm pleading guilty to several violations and agreeing to pay $505 million in fines and penalties.

Cuomo, a New York-registered attorney, advised OKX on legal issues stemming from the probe sometime after August 2021 when he resigned as New York overnor, Bloomberg reported on April 2, citing people familiar with the matter.

“He spoke with company executives regularly and counseled them on how to respond to the criminal investigation,” Bloomberg said.

The Seychelles-based firm pled guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business in violation of US Anti-Money Laundering laws on Feb. 24 and agreed to pay $84 million worth of penalties while forfeiting $421 million worth of fees earned from mostly institutional clients.

The breaches occurred from 2018 to 2024 despite OKX having an official policy preventing US persons from transacting on its crypto exchange since 2017, the Department of Justice noted at the time.

A spokesperson for Cuomo, Rich Azzopardi, told Bloomberg that Cuomo has been providing private legal services representing individuals and corporations on a variety of matters since resigning as New York governor.

“He has not represented clients before a New York city or state agency and routinely recommends former colleagues for positions,”  Azzopardi added.

OKX reportedly wasn’t willing to comment on its relationships with outside firms.

Cuomo also influenced OKX to make executive appointments: Bloomberg

Cuomo, who is now running for mayor of New York City, also advised OKX to appoint his friend US Attorney Linda Lacewell to OKX’s board of directors, Bloomberg said.

Lacewell, a former superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services, was added to the board in 2024 and was named OKX’s new chief legal officer on April 1, according to a recent company statement.

Former New York governor advised OKX over $505M federal probe: Report

Source: Linda Lacewell

Related: New York bill aims to protect crypto investors from memecoin rug pulls

After the investigation concluded, OKX said it would seek out a compliance consultant to remedy the issues stemming from the federal probe and bolster its regulatory compliance program.

“Our vision is to make OKX the gold standard of global compliance at scale across different markets and their respective regulatory bodies,” OKX CEO Star Xu said in a Feb. 24 X post.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Trump imposes 10% tariff on all countries, reciprocal levies on trading partners

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Trump imposes 10% tariff on all countries, reciprocal levies on trading partners

Trump imposes 10% tariff on all countries, reciprocal levies on trading partners

United States President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.

The reciprocal levies on will be approximately half of what trading partners charge for US imports, Trump said. For example, China currently has a tariff of 67% on US imports, so US reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods will be 34%. Trump also announced a standard 25% tariff on all automobile imports.

Trump told the media that tariffs would return the country to economic prosperity seen in previous centuries:

“From 1789 to 1913, we were a tariff-backed nation. The United States was proportionately the wealthiest it has ever been. So wealthy, in fact, that in the 1880s, they established a commission to decide what they were going to do with the vast sums of money they were collecting.”

“Then, in 1913, for reasons unknown to mankind, they established the income tax so that citizens, rather than foreign countries, would start paying,” Trump said.

Economy, US Government, United States, Donald Trump

Full breakdown of reciprocal tariffs by country. Source: Cointelegraph

Trump presented the tariffs through the lens of economic protectionism and hinted at returning to the economic policies of the 19th century by using them to replace the income tax.

Related: Bitcoin rally to $88.5K obliterates bears as spot volumes soar — Will a tariff war stop the party?

Trump proposes eliminating federal income tax and replacing it with tariff revenue

Trump proposed the idea of abolishing the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and funding the federal government exclusively through trade tariffs while still on the campaign trail in October 2024.

According to accounting automation company Dancing Numbers, Trump’s plan could save each American taxpayer $134,809-$325,561 in taxes throughout their lives.

Economy, US Government, United States, Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump addresses the media about reciprocal trade tariffs at the April 2 press event. Source: Fox 4 Dallas

The higher range of the tax savings estimate will only occur if other wage-based taxes are eliminated at the state and municipal levels.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who assumed office in February, also voiced support for replacing the IRS with the “External Revenue Service.”

Lutnick said that the US government cannot balance a budget yet consistently demands more from its citizens every year. Tariffs will also protect American workers and strengthen the US economy, he said.

Magazine: Elon Musk’s plan to run government on blockchain faces uphill battle

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