Rishi Sunak’s defence pledge sets trap for Sir Keir Starmer

Published

2 weeks ago

April 24, 2024

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On the plane from Warsaw to Berlin, Rishi Sunak was buoyant as he briefly chatted to the travelling pack.

Having delivered his hat-trick of welfare reforms, the Rwanda bill and now the big lift in defence spending, he was a prime minister who clearly feels on the front foot after a torrid few months.

He looked like a man enjoying the job.

Politics live: Sunak warns Europe is at a ‘turning point’

Allies said Mr Sunak has spoken a lot about the spending decision with his current Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron, who has “form” in prioritising these decisions, having committed to defence funding back in 2010 when he was prime minister in the face of competing spending demands.

“The PM’s thought about this a lot, which is why it’s so detailed today,” said one government source.

The big decision he announced in this election year to increase defence spending to 2.5% by 2030 was a choice.

He could have committed funding to schools, the NHS or local government. But, for this prime minister, it was the right choice.

It might not be the most salient issue for voters at home, but in his speech today, he left his audience in little doubt about the risks we are facing with the rise of authoritarian regimes, such as China, Russia and Iran, working together to undermine our democracies and way of life.

But equally, Mr Sunak made this commitment knowing all too well that it may not be him that has to deliver it.

And while the sum is really big – £75bn of spending over the next six years – for this year the only commitment will be £500m for Ukraine, with the remainder of the funding coming in the next parliament.

On the assumed baseline, the government had already allocated the additional funding for 2.3% defence spending annually in the next parliament.

Increasing that to 2.5% by 2028-29 will, in cash terms, require £4.5bn of funding, which the government says will be paid for through £1.6bn from the annual research and development budget and £2.9bn from 70,000 cuts to civil servant jobs, taking the workforce back to pre-pandemic levels.

It is a clear political trap for Sir Keir Starmer, who spent much of his early years as Labour leader trying to undo the damage done by his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn – who did not support NATO.

Starmer trap

Sir Keir has sought to re-establish Labour’s security credentials in recent years, most notably in his stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, in which he has made sure he sticks to the US position and stands with the government on matters of national security.

So this is a big test.

Sir Keir said recently that he wanted to commit to the 2.5% of “when resources allow”, giving a future Labour government some wriggle room as it contemplates how to allocate scarce public resource.

Because, as the polls stand, Mr Sunak won’t be the prime minister having to deliver on defence-spending pledges, and already Conservative politicians are challenging Labour to commit to their plans, knowing all too well that it reduces the party’s manoeuvrability in government should it win the general election.

Hard call

And this is a hard call for the Labour leader, who has been desperate to present himself as a politician who also puts the security of the nation above all else.

In Poland, Mr Sunak evoked Winston Churchill, saying: “We did not choose this moment, but it is for us to meet it.”

He also said that to lead was to make choices, and his choice was to protect his citizens above all else.

How can Starmer refuse to meet the commitment?

Politics

Bitfinex database breach ‘seems fake,’ says CTO

Published

16 hours ago

May 5, 2024

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<div>Bitfinex database breach 'seems fake,' says CTO</div>

Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino explained that if the hacking group was telling the truth, they would have asked for a ransom, but he “couldn’t find any request.”

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Labour taking ‘Tory crown jewel’ feels like a momentum shift

Published

19 hours ago

May 5, 2024

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Labour taking 'Tory crown jewel' feels like a momentum shift

It was a wafer-thin victory, but a huge win.

The symbolism of Labour taking the West Midlands mayor, a jewel in the Tory crown, could be felt in the room as Labour activists gathered in Birmingham to celebrate the win with their new mayor Richard Parker and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

There are moments on election journeys when the momentum shifts – and this win felt like one of them.

“We humbly asked [the voters] to put their trust and confidence in a changed Labour Party and they did. And that is a significant piece of political history that we’ve made here today,” said Sir Keir at his victory rally.

“So the message out of these elections, the last now the last stop before we go into that general election, is that the country wants change.

“I hope the prime minister is listening and gives the opportunity to the country to vote as a whole in a general election as soon as possible.”

This win gave them the boost that was missing when they won the Blackpool South by-election on a massive 26-point swing, but then failed to pick up the hundreds of council seats they were chasing.

This win, on just 1,508 votes or 0.25 per cent of the vote, was a body blow for a Conservative party that believed they could just about cling on. Ben Houchen, the Tees Valley mayor, is now the last Tory standing.

For Labour, then a moment to bookmark.

Just as Boris Johnson’s Hartlepool by-election win in 2021 was a low point for Sir Keir – he told me this week that he considered resigning over the loss because he thought it showed he was the barrier to Labour’s recovery – this too will feel devastating not just for Andy Street but for the PM too.

Labour has beaten him in a street fight. He’s bloodied with Sir Keir now emboldened.

“This was the one result we really needed,” said one senior Labour figure. “It’s been our top focus for the past week and symbolically a very important win.”

And Labour needed the boost, because, as Professor Michael Thrasher pointed out in his Sky News’ national vote share projection calculated from the local election results, Sir Keir was not picking up the sort of vote share that Tony Blair was winning in the run-up to the 1997 Labour landslide.

His latest calculation of a 35% vote share for Labour and 26% for the Tories, put Sir Keir winning a general election but short of a majority.

What the West Midlands mayoral win did for Sir Keir was to give him a clear narrative that he is coming for the Tories and will do what he needs to take them down.

It raises inevitable questions about what is next for Rishi Sunak. The prime minister had nowhere to go today, not one win to celebrate. The worst performance in council elections in 40 years, was already pretty much as bad as it gets before the loss of Andy Street. The former Conservative mayor was magnanimous towards the prime minister, saying the loss was his alone.

But colleagues will not be so generous. One former cabinet minister said this loss was “devastating”. “We’re done and there’s no appetite to move against him,” said the senior MP. Many Tories tell me they are now resigned to defeat and believe Mr Sunak and his team needed to own it, rather than the rest of the party.

The coming days might be bumpy, the mood will be stony. But Tories tell me not much will actually change for them.

For Sir Keir, he now needs to sell not the changed Labour Party, but his vision for changing the country. The West Mids mayor’s win was dazzling, but it could have so easily gone the other way. And as Mr Sunak fights to survive, Labour still has to fight hard to win.