‘It’s definitely something that’s alarming’: Pitchers on MLB’s pitching injury epidemic — and how to solve it
The rate of pitcher injuries in baseball has been a topic of conversation across the sport in recent years, but debate reached a boiling point when aces Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider and budding star Eury Perez all suffered season-ending elbow injuries just weeks into the 2024 MLB season. The wave of injuries led to dueling statements from the MLBPA and MLB about the potential root cause of the injuries.
We asked our MLB experts to talk to a handful of pitchers about what they believe is behind the rise — and what steps they would take to solve the growing problem.
How bad is MLB’s pitcher injury problem right now?
Trevor Rogers, starter, Miami Marlins: It’s definitely something that’s alarming. A fan that wants to see a game, it’s different when [Jacob] deGrom is on the mound or Gerrit Cole or Sandy [Alcantara]. Guys consistently going down is alarming.
Caleb Ferguson, reliever, New York Yankees: I definitely think it’s more now. And, to your point, it’s definitely the faces of the league.
Kirby Yates, reliever, Texas Rangers: I don’t know where the numbers are, but I think over the last two or three years, pitchers have been getting hurt at a very, very high rate [34.4% of MLB pitchers in 2022 and 35.3% in 2023 had undergone Tommy John surgery, according to baseball injury researcher Jon Roegele]. It’s getting magnified now because some of our best have been getting hurt. It’s definitely a concern. But with the way the game is going, and the way velocities are, how good hitters are, how small the strike zone has gotten, I don’t know how you change it.
Max Fried, starter, Atlanta Braves: There are injuries every year. There are definitely more high-profile injuries this year, but it’s definitely a tough subject just because there are so many different variables for why players get injuries.
Clarke Schmidt, starter, Yankees: It’s definitely scary and it’s something you definitely have to be cognizant of. But, obviously, you can’t just sit there and worry about it all day long. But I think it’s in the back of guys’ minds. But it’s just part of the game. Definitely a factor — and a little scary that they’re picking up a lot.
Velocity has been cited as one of the factors in rising injuries. How much do you believe that plays into the problem?
Ferguson: There’s a common theme with all these guys that are going down: They all throw 100. We’ve pushed velo so hard in the game that this is where we’re at and we have to try to figure out how to fix it.
Fried: There’s a correlation to it: The more velocity you have, the more stress it puts on joints, ligaments, etc. It’s obviously something that’s part of the equation.
Rogers: The past two years I was hunting velo and I got hurt. Thankfully it wasn’t season-ending. It was something I had to learn — that velo helps, it always plays. But there is more than one way to get a guy out. That’s by pitching and having velo. If you just focus on velo, it’s only a matter of time.
Drew Smyly, reliever, Chicago Cubs: Players know that “the harder I throw, the nastier my pitches are, the more money teams will throw at me.” That’s a real thing, too, and something every team promotes. The time of commanding pitches down and away and mixing speeds, that’s just not how the game is. Players know how to make money. That’s another element. There is so much information now. It goes all the way down to the high school kids. They know what spin rate is, what vertical movement is and what velocity they need to get to.
Steven Wilson, reliever, Chicago White Sox: There is a strong correlation between velocity and arm injuries. But there is also a strong correlation between velocity and people not hitting the ball. Guys want to get paid so they’re chasing velocity, which I don’t think is wrong. And I don’t think it’s going to change because if it is harder to hit, that’s what we’re trying to do.
Will Smith, reliever, Kansas City Royals: Velo is king right now, that’s for sure. Guys are chasing the high velo, and it makes sense. It’s harder to hit. I mean, if you give a guy less time to make a decision, they already don’t have much time to make a decision with the 90 [mph] now, and 100, 101 just cuts it in half almost. … When you see results like you do, you can’t help but to chase it down.
What about the pitch clock?
Mark Leiter Jr., reliever, Chicago Cubs: It’s probably the main factor. You have less time to recover. It’s really like we’re a big experiment and they’re seeing what they can do.
Fried: I don’t think [the pitch clock] is the sole reason, but it’s one of the variables. I think there’s a certain way to pace yourself, but any time you have to speed up and you’re tired and out of sync, you’re more susceptible to get out of rhythm.
Smyly: There are times throughout the game you definitely feel rushed or tired and not able to catch your breath, which could promote an injury. Our trainers say there have been studies that the oxygen in your [shoulder] muscles — when you’re doing something quick without a chance to recover — that could increase your chance for injury. With the pitch clock, sometimes you don’t have that time to take a deep breath.
Adam Ottavino, reliever, New York Mets: I don’t buy it as, like, the reason. But we don’t know the effects of the pitch clock. I mean I personally haven’t felt like it’s putting that type of stress on me, like, acute fatigue or whatever, something that would lend itself to me getting really hurt. But at the same time, if you have a really long inning out there and you have a hard time stopping yourself — you can get pretty gassed. Maybe that has some effect.
Ferguson: I think they made it too quick [by taking two more seconds off]. I’m telling you right now, my pitches in between innings have never felt more rushed. And like when I run out from the bullpen, I’ve never felt like I’ve been as rushed as what I have these past couple years — this year especially. … It’s just like, at what point are we just doing too much harm to put more butts in the seats?
Wilson: For lack of a better term, we s— the bed with that. We reduced the game by 37 minutes last year and they wanted more? How about a 20-second pitch clock all the time? There is a reason powerlifters don’t go rapidly. There needs to be a certain amount of recovery time in between max effort. Being fatigued can put you in a bad spot mechanically, and you can do it on one pitch.
Gerrit Cole, starter, Yankees: It is something that we have to adapt to. And every time you adapt to something there is a cost. I can’t sit here and show you exactly what the data is that says what exactly the cost is. … Everybody’s talking about the effect of the pitch clock just in one year. But what are MRIs going to look like 10 years from now? Five years from now? What are guys’ elbows going to look like pitching under the pitch clock for a prolonged period of time?
Is the baseball itself part of the problem?
Yates: I didn’t pitch for 2½ years [due to a 2021 Tommy John surgery], and when I started pitching again, there was a noticeable difference. Sometimes you get seams that are super high that kind of hurt your finger, and other times, you don’t have any seams. Sometimes the cover is really slick, and sometimes they are rubbed up well. There are inconsistencies all across the board. We deal with it every day and so we’re kind of used to it, but you know, it’s definitely frustrating.
Wilson: Yes. The clubbies are rubbing these balls up at noon. We’re getting the ball at 8:30 at night. When we get it, it’s basically covered in loose dirt. The mud has since dried. I’ll throw a ball out because there are no seams. The next one could be a high school ball with the seams. It’s very inconsistent.
Fried: To be completely honest, that’s not necessarily something that I notice. Do I think that sometimes the balls on some days, am I sweating a little bit more and I have a little less grip on the ball? Absolutely. Other days, are there days when I feel great and the ball feels great? Yes. I think this is in the category of “these are the conditions you have to play in today and you have to make the most of it.” The conditions are never going to be the same. … For me, there has always been a varied state of baseballs, and I just have to try to make the most of it.
Chris Flexen, starter, Chicago White Sox: It’s impossible to make zero imperfections, but the differences this year are not different than in the past. There are irregularities with the ball. Sometimes you get a ball that feels larger in the hand. Sometimes the laces feel higher. Sometimes there are no laces. Sometimes it feels like a cue ball.
Jordan Wicks, starter, Chicago Cubs: I think the ball is fine. Balls are going to be different. You can’t make every ball the same. They tried last year at Double-A, that was terrible. Balls in April, in Boston, are going to feel different than balls in Miami in July. That’s just a part of the game.
What are some other factors contributing to the rise?
Ferguson: Analytics. Not to beat a dead horse — but I think Verlander’s interview was spot on with it. I think it’s a combination of everything that you put into the game now. The pitch clock. The sticky [stuff]. The analytics. The baseball. Everything is different. … Now it’s not about pitching. It’s just about the stuff.
Garrett Crochet, starter, Chicago White Sox: I think it’s a culmination of everything. When I was in youth baseball, I didn’t throw hard. And when I was in high school, I wasn’t chasing velocity or spin rate or anything. It was just, “Oh, that looked good.” The accessibility to all the technology has changed things. … Everyone wants to throw the grossest pitch possible and now you have numbers that you can literally chase.
Cole: In 2017 I finished the year with a 4.20 and led the league in games started and had over 200 innings. It would be hard for somebody in this game right now to run a 4.20 out there, and their club’s going to push them for 33 starts and over 200 innings because the standard of performance is higher. The league is demanding that you throw your best pitch every single time because the hitters are better, the strike zone is smaller, the balls are different, the bats are different. We’ve just evolved into just a higher performance product, which is good. …
When guys were more healthy, we weren’t able to go into a pitching lab and concoct a new pitch and then use that at a 35% clip for the next six months and only have practiced it two months before we roll it out. Like we have no data on that. … It’s certainly a variable that’s out there. Along with the importance of spin, the importance of velocity and the importance of location … They’re all contributing factors.
Yates: The strike zone has gotten smaller, and guys are pitching to the computer — having to spin the ball to a certain amount, to make them break a certain amount. Hitters are really good in the strike zone. So you have to be really good in the strike zone, and everything you throw has to be nasty, with high intensity. … You don’t really have a grace period off the strike zone. In the past, with some umpires, you’d get the outside corner, but they wouldn’t give you the inside corner. Stuff like that. Now, you have to get the ball over the plate, and you have to be really good over the plate. You can’t really trick anybody. It’s really hard to do.
What is the first step you would take to address MLB’s pitching injury issue?
Cole: Well, we can start by having more helpful conversations and not pointing fingers. And not saying that it’s absolutely this or it’s absolutely not that. And we can make it feel like players aren’t necessarily caught in the middle of all of it. Especially because pitchers are so different. Each guy is different. Some guys train better with high volume and low intensity. Some guys train better with low volume and high intensity. It’s just different organisms. So it’s not a blanket thing for the league. One of these rule changes — or one of these variables could’ve affected a certain group of guys more than another group of guys. And vice versa. … We need to get on the same page to at least try to fix it.
Ferguson: I think with pushing velo and pushing stuff as hard as what we have, now we have to figure out how to bring it back but keep everything else that’s been added to a pitcher’s routine before he throws a pitch. You gotta figure out how to keep all that and bring back down all the injuries.
Ottavino: Ultimately, [it’s] never going to stop until they engineer the game to take some of that out of it, whether it’s rule changes or roster limits, that kind of stuff, which is probably going to come down the pike at some point. I also think scouts just decide, “We’re not interested in high school guys that throw 95,” which will probably never happen. But if they were prioritizing a guy who can grow into his body but had the pitchability and threw like 90, 94, I feel like that type of trajectory lends itself to maybe having a little more of a chance of staying healthy. I worry about guys that throw 100 in the minor leagues. How long can you do that for?
Yates: We pitchers have complained about pitchers having a grip on a baseball for years and they’ve done absolutely nothing to help out with that, it’s actually the reverse. We could start there. If they addressed the cover of the baseball and we could hold on a little bit better, it might make us spin the ball a little bit better.
I do think there was a point where the stickiness got carried away — I do agree with that — but as pitchers, it’s a very uncomfortable feeling when you don’t have a good grip on the baseball. When you don’t have a good grip, you tend to squeeze the life out of it. I’m not an expert, but I think that just based on feel, and having to grip a baseball really tight, when you wake up the next morning, your arm does feel a little bit different. Fix the baseball, start there. And then you see what happens.
Wilson: A lot of it is individual. Each guy’s body moves differently. Each guy’s arm moves differently. I think it’s up to the individual to find a good strength and conditioning program to get their body right, to get their mechanics right. We need to be in good, healthier positions. There is enough biomechanical data to know there is less stress on the arm if it’s higher up at foot plant. Nothing will eliminate TJ [Tommy John surgery] — but things like this could help.
The MLB winter meetings are underway in Orlando, Florida, with the baseball industry gathering for an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades — including big splashes by top NL powerhouses with the Philadelphia Phillies bringing back Kyle Schwarber and the Los Angeles Dodgers adding top closer Edwin Diaz.
We’ve got it all covered for you, from our predictions going into the meetings to the latest updates and analysis as the moves go down.
Which big free agents will pick a team? Who will be mentioned in blockbuster trade discussion? And what rumors will rule the week? Check out our predictions and refresh often for the latest intel and reaction as the week unfolds.
Key links: Olney, Passan: Latest intel | Every team’s plan | FA tracker | Grades
Winter meetings news and rumors
Dec. 9 buzz
Why Marlins, Orioles could be a trade match
The Marlins are active in trade talks with multiple teams for Edward Cabrera, a 27-year-old right-hander who has been considered the most likely among their controllable starters to be moved, a source familiar with the situation said. At this point, the Orioles are the most advanced in those talks, as first reported by The Athletic. If completed, it’s an ideal fit. The Orioles are in need of a top-of-the-rotation starter and the Marlins are seeking controllable offensive pieces. — Alden Gonzalez
Will Dodgers make another free agency splash for a star outfielder?
Now that the Dodgers have solved their glaring ninth-inning problem, agreeing to a three-year, $69 million contract with Edwin Diaz, they can shift their focus to adding an outfielder. And until he comes off the board, they’ll continue to be linked to top free agent Kyle Tucker.
The Dodgers aren’t expected to get into the $400 million range on a long-term deal, but like with Diaz, they’ll remain on the periphery in case a short-term, high-AAV deal makes sense. That might not be the case for Tucker, who’s 28 and widely considered the best free agent available. Another option is Cody Bellinger, though it remains to be seen whether both sides are truly interested in a reunion. Of note: Both of those players are attached to a qualifying offer, as was Diaz.
Asked Tuesday night if he could see himself making another big free agent signing, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said: “I would say we definitely can. Whether that makes the most sense within the timing of our roster — there’s so many factors that go into it, and any decision you make has a future cost. … So, yes we can. How likely it is is probably another question.” — Gonzalez
Why extensions could be coming for A’s core hitters
The Athletics still need to build out some depths in their starting pitching as they aim to become sustainable contenders in the leadup to their move to Las Vegas, but there’s little doubt they’ve built a formidable core of position players — and part of the focus this offseason, in addition to adding reliable arms throughout their pitching staff, is keeping that core intact.
The A’s extended Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler last offseason, and now they’d love to find a way to lock up the likes of Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Shea Langeliers.
“There’s a big effort there to keep this group together,” A’s manager Mark Kotsay said. “If we look at the group prior to this, that you could identify as a group that you would have wanted to move forward with, a group that came together in ’17 and ’18 and ’19 — the resources weren’t there to afford to keep that group together. I think there’s a vision and a future here going forward with this group that we were able to at least get those opportunities out in front of these players.” — Gonzalez
Will D-backs get enough to move Marte?
All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte continues to be the talk of this year’s winter meetings, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are asking a high return at the moment, sources familiar with the market told ESPN, which falls in line with what general manager Mike Hazen has communicated publicly — that he’s not required to trade Marte, but he will surely consider the right deal.
The Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays are among those who have been linked to Marte, though others are surely involved. A lot of teams have shown interest, but talks have yet to get serious.
The D-backs would ideally land a higher-end starting pitcher in return — a major need with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly probably departing via free agency, and Corbin Burnes spending at least the majority of 2026 recovering from Tommy John surgery — and would require major league-ready talent as part of any package, a source said. Given that his 10-and-5 rights kick in in April, there is at least some urgency to trade him this offseason.
D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he has been in touch with Marte over the offseason and that the mention of his name so aggressively in rumors “might have caught him by surprise a little bit.”
“But I think he gets it,” Lovullo added. “I told him just what I told you guys — teams are smart. They want really good players. He’s one of the best in the National League. I understand why teams are making phone calls on him. He gets that.” — Gonzalez
White Sox have high bar for dealing Robert
In his first 31 games after the All-Star break, Luis Robert Jr. demonstrated what kind of impact he could have, batting to a .298/.352/.456 slash line, clubbing five homers and stealing five bases. Throughout Robert’s career, the talk has been about his possible impact if he ever remained injury-free and in the lineup, and this was an example of that.
But then Robert got hurt, again, and the Chicago White Sox — with very little future payroll obligation — picked up his $20 million option for 2026, in the hope that he could hit that ceiling for an extended period. The White Sox don’t intend to trade Robert until some interested team is willing to pay for the value of what he could be at his best, rather than for a bargain price. Some teams have checked on Roberts’ availability, but to date, no team has met Chicago’s high bar for a trade return.
Short of that, the White Sox are likely to keep Robert into the ’26 season, and maybe beyond. The team holds another $20 million option for the ’27 season, a year of club control that could make Robert look even more attractive in trade if the 28-year-old is able to stay on the field and generate the kind of high-end production the White Sox enjoyed last summer. — Buster Olney
Fairbanks drawing lots of interest
Pete Fairbanks is a very popular player this offseason. The right-handed reliever has received interest from several clubs, including the Marlins and Blue Jays, sources told ESPN. Fairbanks, 31, recorded a 2.83 ERA in 61 appearances for the Rays last season. He reached free agency after Tampa Bay, in a cost-cutting measure, did not pick up his $11 million option. His injury history could be a concern for teams, but he’s expected to land a two- or three-year deal. — Jorge Castillo
Three teams to watch in trade talks
Free agent splashes dominated the winter meetings spotlight Tuesday morning, but trade winds continue to swirl in Orlando. The Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres are all coming up often as teams that could make a deal soon. — Jesse Rogers
Could the Blue Jays make another splash?
The reigning AL champions are still looking to spend after a strong start to the offseason and could leave the winter meetings with a new closer. Pete Fairbanks and Robert Suarez are two names to watch in Toronto’s reliever search — Rogers
Don’t expect a Valdez deal soon
The top closer and one of the top hitters in this free agent class agreed to deals Tuesday, but don’t expect to see the best available starting pitcher come off the board next. The market for right-hander Framber Valdez is still developing and he won’t be signing with a team for a while. — Rogers
Diaz’s deal with Dodgers spices up meetings
Moments after news broke of Kyle Schwarber‘s return to the Phillies, the Los Angeles Dodgers made a major move of their own in signing top free agent closer Edwin Diaz. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the deal is for three years and $69 million — which sets an AAV record for relievers.
The Dodgers had a clear need in the ninth going into the offseason, no matter how much they hyped up their depth publicly. But many doubted they’d go long term for the top guy in Diaz. A shorter, higher-AAV deal falls right in line with their preference. — Gonzalez
Will Schwarber’s return to Phillies heat up winter meetings?
Slugger Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a five-year, $150 million contract, sources told ESPN. Schwarber’s return to Philly takes one of the most coveted free agents of this winter off the board and could be the move that sparks a run of action as the winter meetings roll on.
Dec. 8 buzz
Dodgers eyeing trades — but say Teoscar Hernandez won’t be dealt
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t expected to make major free agent moves this winter — at least not to the extent of the past two offseasons — and they’re certainly talking like a team content with where things stand.
Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said Monday that “there’s not as many clear paths to make the team meaningfully better.”
Earlier, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts — acknowledging the team’s philosophy last year, that injecting new blood into the roster might be a good way to maintain an edge — said, “There’s really no big splash we feel needs to be made, because this team is still focused, and there’s some talk about a three-peat.”
Still, sources have said, the Dodgers will continue to look for ways to upgrade their outfield and fortify the back end of their bullpen, with the trade market the ideal path. A center fielder would be ideal for the Dodgers because of how it would fortify the entire outfield’s defense, prompting Andy Pages and his plus arm to move to right field while Teoscar Hernandez and his shoddy defense transition to left.
But Gomes praised Pages’ center-field defense, adding that it allows the team the flexibility to pursue any outfielder. Gomes also shot down rumors of Hernandez potentially being traded.
“That doesn’t feel likely,” Gomes said. “Obviously, you can never say never on those types of things, but Teo, I know that’s come up. That’s not something we anticipate at all.” — Gonzalez
Teams checking in on former All-Star Willi Castro
The Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies are among the teams interested in signing utility man Willi Castro, sources told ESPN. Castro, 28, was an All-Star in 2024 after a strong first half with the Minnesota Twins, but he regressed through the second half and into the 2025 season.
The switch-hitter slashed .245/.335/.407 with the Twins in 2025 before he was sent to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline. He struggled in Chicago, batting just .170 with one home run and a .485 OPS in 34 games and did not have a plate appearance in the postseason.
Advanced metrics indicate Castro also regressed defensively in 2025, dropping from 0 to minus-9 outs above average, but he’s a versatile defender who played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots. — Castillo
Padres keeping trio in bullpen, need starting pitchers
In his winter meetings availability, San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen said the team will keep Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan in the bullpen rather than converting them to starters.
“It’s a risky proposition health-wise and performance-wise,” Stammen said.
So, the Padres are very much in the market for starters. — Gonzalez
What will Tigers do with Skubal?
The Detroit Tigers continue to have trade dialogue with other teams about two-time American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. At its heart, Detroit’s choice about whether to swap Skubal now — before he reaches free agency next fall — comes down to this question: Will owner Chris Ilitch and the team’s front office place more on the opportunity to win in 2026, or will they place a greater value on the extraordinary collection of young players they would presumably acquire in a Skubal deal?
What complicates this decision is that the Tigers reside in the highly winnable AL Central. The theoretical path to the World Series is probably easier than it would be to come out of the AL East, with all of its financial monsters, or the AL West, where the Mariners are poised to be a formidable force for years to come. Despite a late-season collapse, the Tigers were still just a run away from playing for the AL championship two months ago.
If the Tigers decide to keep Skubal, they will have to be at peace with the reality that they’ll recoup just a fraction of Skubal’s current value when and if he departs as a free agent — through draft pick compensation. This is the part of the market equation that has compelled the Guardians to flip the likes of CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee or Francisco Lindor in past trades, and why the Brewers dealt Corbin Burnes before the 2024 season. — Olney
Which Marlins starting pitcher will be traded?
Sandy Alcantara is a long shot to be traded at this point, as is teammate Eury Perez, the 22-year-old right-hander whom Miami Marlins would love to sign to an extension. The most likely Marlins starter to get traded, a source familiar with the team’s thinking said, is Edward Cabrera, who is out of options and would be controllable for three years.
Cabrera, 27, posted a 3.53 ERA with 150 strikeouts and 48 walks in 137⅔ innings in 2025. The Marlins would love to use Cabrera — and potentially fellow starter Ryan Weathers, who is coming off an injury plagued season — to address their offensive needs, primarily at first base.
Cabrera, though, is among a deep crop of available starting pitchers this offseason, alongside the likes of Freddy Peralta, Kris Bubic, Mitch Keller, Joe Ryan, Hunter Greene and, most notably, Tarik Skubal. Peralta, Ryan, Greene and Skubal will most likely stay put, but they are nonetheless in trade talks. — Gonzalez
How far will the Phillies go to keep Schwarber?
A lot of the industry is waiting on Kyle Schwarber‘s free agent decision. He has both big and small market teams chasing him but most important will be what he hears from the Philadelphia Phillies, and that can come as soon as Monday or Tuesday. Will they match any offer? Will Schwarber take a little less to stay in Philadelphia? Those questions should be answered soon. — Rogers
King’s suitors starting to take shape
Free agent pitcher Michael King has a half dozen suitors, including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs, but his market hasn’t completely materialized yet. — Rogers
Polanco could make a decision soon
Free agent second baseman Jorge Polanco, coming off a strong 2025 season with the Seattle Mariners, is expected to sign with a team during the winter meetings. — Rogers
Winter meetings predictions
Who will be the biggest name to sign (or get traded) in Orlando?
Jorge Castillo: I root for action at the winter meetings, so let’s pick the biggest name on the free agent market: Kyle Tucker. There aren’t many suitors that, whether it’s for fit or financial reasons, are in the mix, but there’s still interest for an ultra-talented player who can alter the championship landscape. And it starts with Toronto.
The Blue Jays whiffed on the brightest stars of the past two free agent classes — Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto — and Rogers Communications still has money to spend after investing $500 million in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in April and another $210 million recently in free agent starter Dylan Cease. Tucker visited the Blue Jays’ facility in Florida last week. Pairing the left-handed-hitting outfielder with the right-handed-hitting Guerrero would give Toronto a scary tandem for years.
Bradford Doolittle: The inclusion of Byron Buxton on our trade candidates ranking took me aback, mostly because Buxton has been insistent that he will remain a Twin. It’s surprising that he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause, but Buxton is 31, and the Twins don’t seem all-in on winning. Several leading contenders could use a bump in center field — the Houston Astros and New York Mets jump out as clear fits — and if the Twins are heading down this road, dealing Buxton soon would start those dominoes to fall.
Alden Gonzalez: A game of chicken might be brewing at the moment. On one side it’s Cody Bellinger, represented by the Boras Corporation. On the other it’s Tucker, whose free agency is overseen by Excel Sports Management. They’re arguably the two biggest names available, both of them versatile, multi-dimensional, dynamic outfielders, their markets naturally intertwined. And I think Bellinger goes first.
His price point — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicts a six-year, $165 million contract — is more reasonable, and his list of suitors is seemingly more robust because of it. The New York Yankees want him back. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets are all a fit, to varying degrees. Given Bellinger’s ability to also play first base, other teams will undoubtedly emerge. Jumping on Bellinger before Tucker comes off the board and further inflates his market would be smart. And one team will do so this week.
Jesse Rogers: Ranger Suarez. Scott Boras clients usually take longer to come off the board, but not all of them can wait until the new year. Suarez isn’t staring at a megadeal, so checking him off the free agent list by late next week seems more than plausible.
The chatter surrounding the left-hander’s free agency from potential suitors such as the Astros, Mets, Orioles and others is picking up. He’s in line for at least a solid four-year deal — and if a team offers five or even six, it’ll likely land him.
What is one move fans might not expect you to predict will go down this week?
Castillo: Pete Alonso will probably wait until Kyle Schwarber decides on his destination, but I predict Alonso will sign with the Red Sox. Craig Breslow, Boston’s chief baseball officer, has been clear about his desire to acquire a right-handed slugger for the middle of the order. Not many players are better qualified for that role than the right-handed-hitting Alonso, whose 264 home runs since his debut in 2019 are the third most in baseball behind Aaron Judge and Schwarber.
Alonso is coming off a rebound All-Star season in which he clubbed 38 home runs with 126 RBIs, an NL-leading 41 doubles and an .871 OPS for the Mets. Defensively, Alonso is below average, but he could split time with Triston Casas at first base and designated hitter.
The Mets, on the other hand, are determined to improve their defense and would seemingly be in play for Alonso only if his market collapses for the second straight offseason.
Doolittle: Maybe it’s because I am overly susceptible to rumors that tickle my penchant for anti-Wolfean narratives, but I’ll say Schwarber will sign with his hometown Cincinnati Reds. It’s such a perfect fit, and not just because of Schwarber’s ties to Cincinnati. The Reds have a real chance to contend in the NL Central with the right upgrade on offense. And what an upgrade — Schwarber’s swing is perfect for Great American Ballpark, which has featured more homers from visiting lefty hitters over the past five years than any other venue (including 96 more than Citizens Bank Park). Even at 32, give Schwarber five healthy seasons at that park and he’ll reach 500 career bombs.
Gonzalez: This year’s market seems especially ripe for trades, and I think we’re going to see some big-name starting pitchers dealt during the winter meetings. Who, exactly, is anybody’s guess at this point, but there are a bevy of names to choose from, whether it’s two of the Miami Marlins‘ frontline guys (Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera), three steady veterans (Freddy Peralta, Luis Castillo and Pablo Lopez), two budding aces (Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore) or two Cy Young-caliber arms who are unlikely to move but are fascinating nonetheless (Tarik Skubal and Hunter Greene). All eyes will be on the big free agents this week, but the trade market will dominate. And the starting pitchers will be featured in it.
Rogers: How about a bold one: Nick Castellanos gets traded. Perhaps it won’t land as the biggest of surprises, considering how things went down in Philadelphia last year, but a deal would further show that the Phillies are turning things over a bit as they continue to chase a ring.
Castellanos could be the perfect fit for Pittsburgh, which is desperate for hitting. In a recent interview on MLB Network, Castellanos discussed the idea of playing first base. That opens the door to even more possibilities outside of Philadelphia.
What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?
Castillo: Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte, if moved, would be the best position player to move this offseason — Tucker and Schwarber included. So the fact that he is available will undoubtedly generate rumors all week.
First, Marte produces. His 15.3 WAR over the past three seasons is 13th in the majors. He has made the NL All-Star team each of the past two seasons. He finished third in the NL MVP race in 2024. He owns a .289/.363/.510 slash line since 2019. Second, his economical contract — he has five years and $91 million plus a sixth-year player option at $11.5 million remaining — only adds to the allure and makes him palpable for several clubs. Marte is 32 and drew anonymous criticism from teammates for his behavior last season, but a player of his caliber will draw substantial interest.
Doolittle: Something about Tucker? It doesn’t feel like there have been many concrete reports regarding Tucker’s possible destination, but he’s the top free agent, so the rumor mill is more likely to focus on his wanderings than anyone else until he signs. News about him will pick up in Orlando.
Gonzalez: There is no bigger name on the trade market than Skubal. On one end, he is beloved in Detroit, where he has established himself as the type of cornerstone who should never pitch anywhere else. On the other is the cold reality — that he is a Boras client who would command the types of sums in the open market that the Tigers are either unwilling or unable to pay him. And though the Tigers intend to contend in 2026 and would undoubtedly have a better chance of doing so with Skubal fronting their rotation, it would be foolish not to at least explore a trade and attempt to get major talent back in return. It’s the responsible thing to do — and yet Tigers fans have every right to be enraged about this even being a possibility.
Rogers: Where Kyle Schwarber will play in 2026 and beyond. His next contract should be in the $150 million range, though if a new team steps up and is willing to pay big time for not only his power but his leadership, then all bets are off. But as intriguing as a smaller market might be, the Phillies need him as much as anyone during their current window to win. His return there isn’t a guarantee, but it still makes the most sense.
PITTSBURGH — The Pittsburgh Penguins placed center Evgeni Malkin on injured reserve Tuesday with an upper-body injury.
The move comes after the 39-year-old Malkin sat out a shootout loss to Dallas on Sunday. Malkin, in the final season of his contract with the Penguins, is off to one of the better starts of his 20-year career.
The Russian has eight goals and 21 assists in 26 games for surprising Pittsburgh, which began the season with modest expectations but is firmly in contention in the competitive Metropolitan Division.
The Penguins also placed forward Blake Lizotte on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Lizotte has three goals and two assists in 27 games.
The club described Malkin and Lizotte as both week-to-week.
Pittsburgh recalled forwards Danton Heinen and Sam Poulin from their American Hockey League affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to fill out the roster ahead of Tuesday night’s visit by Anaheim, the start of a five-game homestand.
TORONTO — Toronto Maple Leafs forward Bobby McMann has been suspended one game for high-sticking Tampa Bay Lightning winger Oliver Bjorkstrand, the NHL announced Tuesday.
The incident occurred three minutes into the third period of Toronto’s 2-0 win over Tampa Bay on Monday night.
McMann received a match penalty after swinging his stick and hitting Bjorkstrand’s head following a cross-check from the Lightning forward.
McMann, who is being suspended for the first time in his career, will forfeit U.S. $7,031.25. The money goes to the Players’ Emergency Assistance Fund.
He will miss Toronto’s game Thursday night against the visiting San Jose Sharks, and is eligible to return when the Maple Leafs host the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.
McMann, 29, has eight goals and six assists in 29 games this season.
Leafs coach Craig Berube disagreed with the match penalty on Monday, calling it a “tough one.”
“From our view on the bench, I couldn’t really see it too well. I’ll take a look at it, but I had a tough time with that,” he said after the game.
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