‘We’re going to get super hot’: Why the Astros believe they’re about to start playing like the Astros again
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
The Houston Astros arrived at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium in Mexico City on Saturday searching for a symbolic fresh start, and Yordan Álvarez, their menacing slugger, found it almost immediately — on a white piece of paper taped to a wall inside their temporary clubhouse. On it was a simple message, scribbled in black marker:
Introductions, 3:45 p.m.
At that time, members of the team would line up along the third-base line to be formally introduced for the start of Major League Baseball’s brief foray into Mexico City, just like they normally would on Opening Day. Álvarez saw it as an opportunity.
“It was like we were starting a new season,” Álvarez said in Spanish. “I told the guys, ‘This is the moment to believe our season starts today.'”
The Astros, losers of eight of their previous nine games and already in a deep hole within the American League West, proceeded to put together two of their most complete and impressive performances all season, beating the Colorado Rockies by a combined 14 runs on Saturday and Sunday. They were playing against one of the worst teams in their sport and hitting in the thin air of a ballpark that sits 7,300 feet above sea level, but the Astros — still a whopping 10 games below .500 — came away from that series believing they had turned a corner.
“We’re going to get super hot and go on a run,” Astros third baseman Alex Bregman said in the wake of it.
It would have to be quite the run.
The Astros lost 18 of their first 25 games, tied for the second-worst mark in their franchise’s history. Only two teams — the 1981 Kansas City Royals, in a strike season, and the 1914 Boston Braves — have overcome such a start to make the playoffs.
Entering the Mexico City series, six of their starting pitchers had already spent time on the injured list. Their vaunted bullpen trio of Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader had combined to allow 24 earned runs in 32 innings. Their decorated offense had stranded an American League-leading 202 baserunners. And two of their most important bats, Bregman and, to a greater extent, José Abreu, were in the midst of a profound slump.
In spring training, a two-game series in Mexico City was looked upon by players as a fun getaway to break up the monotony of a traditional schedule. As the season ensued and the losses mounted, it evolved into a necessary respite, an opportunity for a clean slate. The results only seemed to validate that.
“We want to use this series as a springboard to play better than we have,” Astros manager Joe Espada said in Spanish. “I think we demonstrated over these last two games the type of team we are.”
The Astros carry the unwavering confidence of a club that has appeared in each of the past seven AL Championship Series, even if present circumstances make it seem misplaced. Legitimate reasons for optimism do exist, though, beginning with the health of their starting pitchers. Justin Verlander made his delayed season debut on April 19, Framber Valdez was activated off the injured list Sunday, Cristian Javier should rejoin the rotation this week and José Urquidy is on track to return next month. The Abreu-Pressly-Hader trio should be much better. And there’s little reason to believe the lineup, which has gone through 23 different variations already, won’t eventually be a force.
But it’s also easy to see why the Astros are vulnerable — why we might actually be witnessing the end of one of the most dominant runs in recent baseball history. Most of the Astros’ best players are in the back half of their careers, some nearing the ends of them. The organizational depth that prolonged their window has dried up, making injuries potentially more devastating than ever before. These past two games were nice, but the Astros’ next series will come against far better teams in the Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, with little margin to fall much further
And then there’s Abreu, in his age-37 season and in the middle of a contract that pays him $58.5 million through 2025. His first 71 at-bats have consisted of just seven hits and 18 strikeouts. Scouts say he has been late on almost every fastball. The Astros have recently placed Abreu in a quasi-platoon with the left-handed-hitting Jon Singleton. The recent promotion of first-base prospect Joey Loperfido might cut into his playing time further.
“You know what’s been the hardest thing for me? And I say this from the bottom of my heart — I feel embarrassed,” Abreu said in Spanish. “The people in this organization brought me here to do a good job. I haven’t done that. The hard thing, too, is that my teammates see that I haven’t done my job, although they’ve always supported me, always been by my side. But I won’t stay down.”
Abreu got two hits past a drawn-in infield Saturday. And though he didn’t take much solace in a result that came while still feeling out of rhythm, he did acknowledge the significance of his first multi-RBI game all year.
“It’s been a while,” Abreu said with a smile.
Something similar occurred late in Sunday’s game, when Bregman, homerless while slashing .216/.287/.268, lined a base hit up the middle. Bregman, a famously slow starter, called it “my best swing of the year.” He had been fighting timing issues all season, but he told himself to be ready to hit sooner when he came to bat in the top of the eighth. He started his load earlier so he could wait on the fastball, adjust to an off-speed pitch and avoid feeling rushed. When he loads earlier, he said, “everything is simpler.”
He thinks that eighth-inning swing was the start of something.
He thinks the Astros are finally coming.
“I know the character of the guys in this room,” Bregman said. “I know that we have fighters in here that are going to continue to show up and compete every day and prepare correctly and go out and execute on the field. We have way too many good players in here, way too many who know what success is like at this level.
“I think we’ll see a different Stros team the rest of the year. We’ll be where we need to be by the end of it. I know no one’s done it since 1914 or whatever, come back from this start, but we’ve got a good group in here and we’re up for the challenge.”
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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