Fantasy baseball: Alex Verdugo leads waiver wire picks
This week offers up a clear case of opportunity knocking, especially when it comes to outfielders. A pair of longtime rivals, both of whom recently moved into his team’s cleanup spot, stand out among the most popular fantasy baseball pickups.
Alex Verdugo, OF, New York Yankees (34.9% rostered in ESPN leagues): In an unexpected development, especially looking at the big names that grace the Yankees roster, Verdugo earned starts out of the cleanup spot both Saturday and Sunday in Milwaukee. Coincidentally, the team scored 15 runs in each game. Verdugo chipped in with five hits and two homers over the three-game series. He is the only Yankee to have played in all 29 games (as well as all 263 innings) and is batting .333 (22-for-66) over his last 19 contests.
To be straightforward, I’m not traditionally a Verdugo believer. His skill set screams “platoon man” — see his .295 career wOBA against lefties compared to .345 against righties. Plus, he makes only modest contact (never a better than 38th percentile Statcast Barrel rate and only twice greater than 39th percentile hard-hit rate), which might mean he’s still a situational, matchups-type fantasy play. That said, Verdugo has shown much better selectivity against lefties (15.9% walk and 21.2% chase rates compared to his 16.9% and 24.5% career numbers against that side). He’s also showing a hint of elevation in his swing, which is a good thing for a lefty who calls Yankee Stadium his home.
Perhaps Verdugo is a short-term add, best traded at the peak of an upcoming hot streak. However, as his skill set is well-suited for points-based leagues (currently OF8 in fantasy points), perhaps he’s ready to deliver something more.
Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox (17.0% rostered): The most disappointing of Boston’s many outfield combatants this spring, Abreu was fortunate to make the Opening Day roster after hitting just .127/.286/.270 with a 33.8% strikeout rate over 77 Grapefruit League plate appearances. Trevor Story‘s season-ending injury, however, coaxed the team to shift Ceddanne Rafaela to shortstop to compensate, allowing Abreu to sneak into regular corner outfield duty.
Abreu, thus far, has given the team plus-defense and similar power metrics to his brief 2023 stint, and his patience at the plate is another positive. Abreu brings much more power to the table than either Rafaela or Jarren Duran, having posted a .216 ISO while averaging one home run per 19 at-bats between the majors and minors from 2021-23. That’s probably why he has become attractive enough to the Red Sox to earn cleanup-spot starts in six of their past seven games. He’s another “universal add” thanks to his expanded opportunity.
Pay attention: One more “outfielder,” or at least an OF-eligible player to consider is Houston Astros prospect Joey Loperfido (5.6%), reportedly set to join the team for the start of their series against the Cleveland Guardians. Eric Karabell will have much more to say about Loperfido’s fantasy potential on Tuesday.
How are they still available?!
Mason Miller, SP/RP, Oakland Athletics (56.6%): A sensation during the past week’s series against the Yankees, Miller has quickly emerged as a top-shelf closer, armed with a 100.7-mph fastball and slider, each of which has a 50% whiff rate thus far. He has notched the save in each of his past seven opportunities, striking out a stunning 17 out of 24 batters faced while allowing only one hit over that time.
My mea culpa: I did not expect the Athletics to regard him as a traditional, single-inning closer this year — and certainly not this quickly. I likened his probable role to that of Garrett Whitlock‘s for the 2021-22 Red Sox. Well, Miller looks the part, and this year’s Athletics team is nowhere near as terrible as last year’s, on pace to shave 99 runs off their run differential (although admittedly, they’re still likely to be beneath minus-200 in that department).
Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers (40.4%): I was a huge Greene backer in the preseason and remain one today, not that that’s a difficult stance to take when he’s one of those players whose Statcast page is a sea of red — that’s the color you want to see there. Though his surface-level rotisserie numbers appear ordinary, among batting title-eligibles, he has the seventh-best Barrel rate and is the MLB leader in walk rate (19.2%). Greene still seems destined for a 2024 breakout. On a side note, what is it with Tigers outfielders with stunning metrics and so-so back of the baseball card stats (see: Castellanos, Nick while with Detroit)?
Deeper-league add
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels (3.3%): Could Adell, the No. 10 overall pick of the 2017 amateur draft (as well as Kiley McDaniel’s No. 10 overall prospect entering his 2020 debut season), finally be breaking through after struggling through four disappointing big league years? He has hit .400 (8-for-20) with two home runs in six games over the past week and, while such small sample sizes carry minimal weight, what stands out in his season-to-date profile is a more all-field approach (career-low 35% pull rate) — especially against fastballs — along with a greater lift in his swing (career-low 32% ground ball rate) and a greater quality of contact (career-best 51% hard hit rate).
It’s not the first time he has enjoyed some very short-term success as he managed to hit .300/.344/.533 over his final 16 games of 2021, for example. However, it wouldn’t be a complete shock to learn that this is the “figuring it out” phase for a player whom scouts said might struggle initially due to his free-swinging ways. Adell is well worth the speculative stash in any league larger than standard.
Two-start streamer
Bailey Falter, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (15.1%): Any pitcher who draws matchups at the Athletics and at home against the Colorado Rockies is a seemingly automatic start for fantasy purposes (despite my earlier comment about the Athletics’ year-over-year “improvement”). The Forecaster grades both of those opponents as a top-five matchup on either the home or road side of things, for both run prevention and strikeout potential.
What stands out with Falter, however, is his amount of extension with his pitches, releasing his fastball 7.4 feet in front of the pitching rubber, which ranks among the very highest numbers in baseball and gives his 91.3 mph pitch the look of a pitch noticeably faster. He averaged 92.0 mph with the pitch while striking out eight Milwaukee Brewers in his last turn, which was a solid stepping stone toward these advantageous matchups.
Feel free to cut: Jackson Holliday (35.7%), although certainly not in keeper/dynasty formats; Triston Casas (64.0%); Adbert Alzolay (54.2%); Gavin Williams (14.9%).
Week 13 is here as we look toward big Saturday matchups that could have an effect on the College Football Playoff rankings, along with what’s going on in the SEC and the success story of a UCLA walk-on who is now leading the FBS in solo tackles.
Starting Saturday’s slate of games, No. 5 Indiana and No. 2 Ohio State will meet in a game that could have Big Ten and CFP implications, while No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 19 Army will face each other in the evening. Army and Indiana enter their matchups undefeated, but will they stay that way?
With conference title games just around the corner, we take a look at what’s going on in the SEC. No. 3 Texas and No. 15 Texas A&M lead in the standings currently, but could we see a potential rematch between No. 7 Alabama and No. 10 Georgia on Dec. 7?
Our college football experts preview big games and storylines ahead of the Week 13 slate.
Jump to a section:
UCLA’s Carson Schwesinger | Army-Notre Dame | Who could win the SEC?
Big Ten CFP implications
UCLA’s Carson Schwesinger engineers an extraordinary walk-on story
Before this season, Carson Schwesinger‘s story had the typical markings: walk-on, overlooked in recruiting, worked his way onto the field for a Power 4 program.
Schwesinger was a scout team standout for UCLA. He played on every special teams unit, making the travel squad and catching the attention of running backs coach DeShaun Foster. He earned a scholarship before the 2022 season. Schwesinger had limited opportunities on defense but collected 15 tackles in 2022 and 12 last fall, including a sack.
His was a nice little story. This season, he has become something very different.
Schwesinger, a junior linebacker for the Bruins, leads the Big Ten and is tied for third nationally in total tackles with 109, and also has 2 interceptions, 3 sacks and a forced fumble. A team captain, Schwesinger leads the FBS in solo tackles with 69. He’s even generating NFL draft buzz after recording seven games with 10 or more tackles, including 17 last week at Washington.
“Any opportunity I was going to get, I was going to try and make the most of it,” Schwesinger said. “I don’t like going in with too many expectations about stats or playing time or whatever. I’m not a huge stats guy.”
Schwesinger attributed his production spike to several factors: increased playing time, facing more run-oriented offenses in UCLA’s first season in the Big Ten, and his teammates, especially star tackle Jay Toia and fellow linebackers Oluwafemi Oladejo and Kain Medrano. Ikaika Malloe, who coached the line in 2023, became Schwesinger’s fourth defensive coordinator in as many years but didn’t overhaul the scheme.
“He’s just somebody who you can count on,” said Foster, now UCLA’s head coach. “Just to see him continuously make plays, flying around and really being the quarterback of the defense, is just amazing. We’re not surprised by it, but he just keeps doing more stuff that’s just impressive.”
A native of Moorpark, California, Schwesinger played safety and wide receiver at Oaks Christian School, the football power not far from UCLA’s campus that regularly produces Power 4 recruits. But no one wanted Schwesinger, as he “slipped through the cracks,” Foster said.
Schwesinger came to UCLA to study bioengineering. One of his sisters studied physiological science there, and another was studying engineering “across town” at USC, the team the Bruins host Saturday.
“It’s definitely a little bit more time consuming,” said Schwesinger, who schedules most of his lab classes in the offseason. “It just takes a little bit extra preparedness throughout the week. The professors have been great in terms of being flexible and allowing me to be able to do both of my passions.”
Schwesinger hopes to use his degree and work in the sports science field after finishing with football.
“He’s going to real school, it’s not just showing up and taking TV,” said Foster, quoting fictional coach Pete Bell from the movie “Blue Chips.”
Schwesinger is a semifinalist for the Burlsworth Trophy, given to the top college football player who started his career as a walk-on. He’s also a semifinalist for the Butkus Award, bestowed upon the sport’s top linebacker.
“I’m proud of just being able to continue to work, even when there were times when it didn’t seem like it was going to be going to work out for me,” Schwesinger said. “I’m just thankful for the opportunities that I’ve been given, and want to continue to make the most of any that I keep getting.” — Adam Rittenberg
What’s on the line in the Army-Notre Dame matchup?
Back in August, everybody had the Army-Notre Dame game in the next-to-last weekend of the regular season carrying College Football Playoff implications, right? And the same goes for Army coming into the game unbeaten, correct?
Sounds like fantasy, especially with the game being played at Yankee Stadium and the history of the two institutions, but the winner of this game takes a sizable step toward the playoff. Granted, Notre Dame is a big favorite and has been playing lights out since a shocking loss to Northern Illinois in the second week of the season. Since that loss, the Irish (9-1) have won eight straight games with seven of those wins coming by 18 or more points. After Army comes a trip to the West Coast to face USC, and with wins in both of those games, Notre Dame should be safely in the playoff for the first time since 2020.
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman wants no part of what might lie ahead for his team, and he also doesn’t want anybody mistaking Army for Navy, which the Irish routed 51-14 back in October. The Midshipmen were unbeaten and nationally ranked at the time.
“I met with the defensive staff, and the first thing we said is the biggest mistake we can make is to think this is Navy 2.0. It’s not. It’s a different offense,” Freeman said. “They do some different things. They have a different identity and present a different challenge.”
The Black Knights (9-0) moved to 19th in the playoff committee’s latest rankings and have already clinched a berth in the AAC championship game against Tulane. The highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion will earn an automatic spot in the playoff. But with such a weak strength of schedule, Army is going to need a marquee win (like Notre Dame) to have a chance to pass Boise State in the final rankings even if it wins a conference championship.
Either way, this is the most anticipated Army-Notre Dame matchup in more than 50 years, although Army coach Jeff Monken has chosen to go down another road with his players, as in emphasizing the things — blocking, sure tackling, winning the turnover battle and winning on special teams — that have gotten them to this point.
“If I’m telling our guys this is the biggest [Notre Dame] game since 1946, I mean, how does that help our team win?” Monken said. “Does it? It just puts undue pressure on them.”
For sure, but it’s the kind of pressure, and the kind of stage, anybody in or around Army’s program would have gladly accepted back in August. — Chris Low
What’s going on in the SEC?
The dream of complete chaos happening in the SEC — an eight-team tie for first place — ended with LSU’s 27-16 loss at Florida last week.
With only two weeks to play in the regular season, there’s still much unknown and plenty of potential havoc that can happen in the deepest Power 4 conference.
No. 3 Texas and No. 15 Texas A&M, the only teams with one conference loss, are in the driver’s seat in getting to the Dec. 7 SEC championship game. If those teams win Saturday (the Longhorns host Kentucky, and the Aggies travel to Auburn), the winner of their Nov. 30 showdown at Kyle Field will punch its ticket to Atlanta.
If either Texas or Texas A&M slips up this weekend and then comes back to win in the regular-season finale, however, there’s potential for a six-way tie for first if the other contenders (No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 10 Georgia and No. 11 Tennessee) win out.
Another potential scenario: If Texas or Texas A&M lose this week and then bounce back in the regular-season finale, it could potentially be an Alabama-Georgia rematch in Atlanta (as long as the Tide win at Oklahoma on Saturday and against Auburn in the Nov. 30 Iron Bowl).
Still with me?
Georgia’s SEC season is complete after the Bulldogs took down the Volunteers 31-17 last week. Tennessee closes the regular season at Vanderbilt on Nov. 30. The Rebels play at surging Florida on Saturday and host rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29.
Even if the Texas-Texas A&M winner has only one SEC loss, there’s a good chance there could be a multiteam tie for second. Because not everyone played each other in the 16-team league, head-to-head and common-opponent tiebreakers can’t be used.
So the fourth tiebreaker, cumulative conference winning percentage of all SEC opponents, would probably be used to settle the debate. That’s where Alabama has an advantage over the others with a 27-26 record (.509) going into this weekend.
Of course, a couple of upsets over the next two weeks could change everything in the SEC. — Mark Schlabach
What does each team need to capitalize on to win?
Indiana: Led by the electrifying playmaking foursome of running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins and wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, the Buckeyes rank third nationally in offensive efficiency. Operating with those playmakers around him, quarterback Will Howard ranks fourth with a QBR of 85.3.
Still, despite thriving otherwise in his first and only season with the Buckeyes, Howard remains prone to making big mistakes. On Nov. 2 against Penn State, Howard committed two colossal turnovers, throwing a pick-six on Ohio State’s opening drive, then later fumbling away the ball on the way to what would’ve been a touchdown run. The Buckeyes overcame those takeaways on the way to a 20-13 victory. But if the Hoosiers, who rank 10th nationally in turnover margin, can force Howard into those types of mistakes again, they could hang around and, potentially, pull off the upset.
Ohio State: The Hoosiers became the first team in 26 years to open 8-0 without trailing once. Despite winning 10 games for the first time in program history, Indiana has yet to face a ranked opponent. The Hoosiers also haven’t had to play in an imposing venue like Ohio Stadium. Two years ago, while still at Ohio, Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke struggled in such an environment, throwing for just 119 yards in a 46-10 loss at Penn State. In two years with James Madison competing in the FBS, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti never coached anywhere like the Horseshoe. Cignetti is on track to become college football’s coach of the year, and Rourke is having a fabulous season. But Ohio State can make the moment — and the setting — too big for them. Indiana hasn’t had to play from behind all year. Ohio State could put the Hoosiers in an uncomfortable and precarious position with a couple of quick early strikes. — Jake Trotter
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
SMU coach Rhett Lashlee has signed a contract extension with the school, as he has the team positioned for a run at its second straight conference title and its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.
Terms of Lashlee’s deal were not disclosed, as SMU is a private school. He also received a multiyear contract extension in November 2023 “to keep him on the Hilltop for years to come,” athletic director Rick Hart said at the time.
Lashlee is 27-10 at SMU, which won the American Athletic Conference title in 2023, its first since 1984. The program moved to the ACC this season and is the only team undefeated in league play, as its faces Virginia and Cal to close the regular season. SMU is No. 13 in the CFP standings with its only loss coming to No. 14 BYU in Week 2.
“We changed leagues and changed levels,” Lashlee told ESPN.
Since the start of the 2023 season, SMU is tied for sixth nationally in win percentage at 20-4 overall (.833). Lashlee, 41, served as SMU’s offensive coordinator under Sonny Dykes in 2018 and 2019, and also held coordinator roles at Miami, UConn, Auburn and Arkansas State. He’s a former quarterback at Arkansas.
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