Passan: Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
OVER THE WINTER, as the Pittsburgh Pirates considered how to unleash the best pitching prospect in a generation on the baseball world, they landed on a plan with which they felt entirely comfortable and positively uncomfortable. No matter how well-thought-out the steps, how sound the logic, how reasoned the process, the success of a pitcher hangs in the balance. Even if a team does everything right, it still can go very, very wrong.
For the last month, Paul Skenes, the subject of all the planning, has carved up Triple-A hitting. His long-awaited debut in Pittsburgh is imminent, with the Pirates announcing he will start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs, and Skenes will arrive with a bullet train full of hype. He went to the Pirates with the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, the deepest in recent memory. He is capable of doing things with a baseball unlike any man before him: No starter in the big leagues ever has thrown as consistently hard as Skenes.
None of that hoopla factored into Pittsburgh’s approach to his 2024 season, but the alarming rate at which it has watched the game’s best pitchers hit the injured list certainly did. The Pirates didn’t want to rush the right-hander — and they didn’t want to hold him back, either. They loved everything about him — except for all of the things they couldn’t know. They drew a roadmap they hoped would bring out the best in him — and acknowledged they had no clue whether it would succeed.
“I don’t claim that we have any sort of scientific master formula for how we’re doing this,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “I don’t know for sure that this plan is right. I can’t say that.”
If we judge Skenes’ success on outcome over process, all has gone according to plan. Skenes has been everything he’s supposed to be: 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds of dominance, with an average fastball of 100 mph and four other pitches with which he befuddles hitters. Less than a year out from a College World Series appearance, he has a 0.99 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 27⅓ innings for Triple-A Indianapolis this season.
The Pirates, though, understand that results-oriented analyses are inherently flawed. And while they found no comfort in managing the future face of their franchise with what amounts to an educated guess, they were able to take solace in at least one thing: When it comes to following a plan, Skenes has plenty of experience.
WHEN HE ARRIVED at the Air Force Academy in 2021, Skenes did not appear on any list to be the next great major league pitcher for a good reason: He was a catcher. As a freshman, he hit .410/.486/.697 with 32 extra-base hits in 188 at-bats. He was also the Falcons’ closer, notching 11 saves and showing enough acumen to go full Ohtani as a sophomore, starting 15 games on the mound and spending the rest of the time behind the plate.
Schools around the country took notice. Skenes entered the transfer portal and drew widespread interest. While some teams wanted him as a two-way player, LSU recruited him strictly to pitch. It appealed to Skenes, as did the Tigers’ pitching coach, Wes Johnson, who had parlayed a successful college coaching career into the Minnesota Twins’ major league pitching coach job before returning to the amateur ranks with LSU.
“He knew what he needed to do, but he didn’t know how. He was hunting the how,” Johnson said. “We got in there, and from his diet to learning a slider, we helped him figure that out.”
Deeply thoughtful and impressively methodical, Skenes gobbled up the knowledge offered by Johnson — in some cases literally. Typically, a pitcher throwing with the force of Skenes burns about 5,000 calories a game. To combat the energy drain of pitching, Johnson suggested Skenes supplement his diet with shots of honey.
“Paul would go through half a bear a game,” Johnson said.
Skenes needed the pick-me-up to execute what he was trying to pull off: surviving a jump from the Mountain West Conference to the SEC, the best college baseball conference in the country. Even more important than his dietary changes — which allowed him to maintain his weight during the season, a rarity — were the efforts to help Skenes start throwing an effective breaking ball. He had thrived at Air Force with a fastball-changeup combination, but SEC hitters would pummel him without an effective spinner. He spent the winter working with Johnson on a slider, and scouts who went to see Skenes in Baton Rouge emerged suggesting something that once seemed inconceivable: He might be good enough to steal the top spot in the amateur draft from his teammate, outfielder Dylan Crews.
Skenes spent the coming spring proving those scouts prophetic. Over 19 starts, he threw 122⅔ innings and struck out 209 against 20 walks. In less than two years, he had become the most polished pitching prospect in a decade. All season, Skenes balanced otherworldly performance with an insatiable desire to learn more. Even as the slider emerged as an elite pitch, Skenes, after one particular start, told Johnson that while it was good enough to get out college hitters, it wouldn’t have played in the big leagues.
“He’s not hard on himself,” said Johnson, now the head coach at the University of Georgia. “He’s just really good at self-evaluation.”
At one point during the season that would end with Skenes winning the College World Series’ Most Outstanding Player for the national champion Tigers, he asked to meet with Johnson to assess his progress. During the conversation, Johnson said, Skenes seemed to finally realize what would soon become clear to anyone watching him.
“I don’t mean this to be arrogant,” Skenes said. “I think the only way I get beat is when I beat myself.”
To make that harder to do, he picked up a few other pitches at LSU to complement his fastball and slider. To capitalize on his velocity, Skenes toyed around with a splinker — a hybrid of a splitter and a sinker — thrown by only one other pitcher, Twins closer Jhoan Duran. With his newfound feel for spin, he developed a curveball, too. While neither pitch fully formed in college, he kept working at them.
“What we’re seeing, more than anything, is a remarkable desire to be very honest with information, very honest with feedback and very fast to adjust,” Cherington said. “I hate making comps. This is not a great comp because it’s not the same type of player. But I’ve told people I believe Mookie Betts is the best practice player I’ve ever been around. Yes, he’s talented, but specifically because he’s so open to the truth and has such a comfortable relationship with, ‘Oh, I’m not doing that well enough? Great. Give it to me so I can do something about it.’
“It sounds so simple, but it’s very hard for people to do that. And we see some of that in Paul. Different players, different personalities, different people. But that relationship with the feedback he’s getting about what his pitches are doing, what his delivery is doing, this is the target of where they want it to be. Those adjustments happen quickly.”
FOR THE BETTER part of a decade, the Pirates have lived among the dregs of Major League Baseball. They are terminally parsimonious, running a bottom-five Opening Day payroll for the past seven seasons. Since Cherington took over as GM in November 2019, they’ve made organizational strides but never finished higher than fourth place in the National League Central division.
To win the inaugural draft lottery in 2022, then, was a gift for an organization that last made the postseason in 2015. On July 9, 2023, the Pirates chose Skenes over Crews and Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford with the first pick in the draft. After signing for a slotting system-record $9.2 million bonus, Skenes threw 6⅔ innings over five Low-A appearances that summer. They were glorified bullpen sessions following the grind of the college season, more an opportunity for Skenes to familiarize himself with the organization and vice versa.
The real work started last winter. The Pirates recognized that Skenes could have pitched effectively in the major leagues the day he was drafted, but they wondered whether sending him there to start the 2024 season would be best for his long-term development. Before it could figure out how best to deploy Skenes, the Pirates’ front office needed to answer a question: What are we trying to accomplish?
“We took him 1-1. We really, really think highly of him,” Cherington said. “We’re placing a very strong bet on him and have believed since the day we drafted him that he’s going to be a really good major league starting pitcher. But pitching is hard to predict a week from now, let alone a year from now.”
What Pittsburgh landed on attempted to balance the future and the now. A drastic increase over his 122 innings from last year spooked the Pirates, even, as Cherington admits, “there’s an arbitrariness in that.” Starting Skenes in the major leagues while throttling him could cause undue strain on the team’s bullpen.
By sending Skenes to the minor leagues, the Pirates reasoned, they could see firsthand how he best operates and what he needs. He could introduce his splinker and curveball in an environment likelier to build confidence in the pitches. He could check a number of boxes progressively: efficiency in his early starts with limited pitch counts, game-planning as he was allowed to go through a lineup multiple times and stamina as he transitioned from five days’ rest to the standard four in the major leagues. All while keeping his minor league innings totals low so they don’t have to shut him down before the end of the season.
“We’d rather have the majority of the volume available to him be in the major leagues and not the minor leagues,” Cherington said. “Managing the volume progression early so it’s building more slowly than an established major league starter’s would, but in a way where we’re not using an unnecessary number of innings in the minor leagues.”
The plan made sense to Skenes. He’s 21 years old. As tantalizing as pitching in the major leagues is, he’s also patient enough to recognize the value of slow-playing his first full professional season. At the same time, because of the Pirates’ miserly ways and general ineffectiveness — they currently are in third place in the NL Central at 17-21 — the less-charitable read on the decision was that the team was manipulating Skenes’ service time. By keeping Skenes in the minor leagues until May 11, when he’ll officially be called up for his debut, he will reach free agency after the 2030 season instead of 2029.
“I really don’t believe it’s played any role in this case. I really mean this,” Cherington said. “We decided in spring training that … we wanted to build the volume more slowly than an established major league starter would. Once we made that decision, functionally, it has to start in the minor leagues.”
FROM THE MOMENT he started in Triple-A Indianapolis, it was evident Skenes did not belong there. In his first outing, he struck out five hitters in three perfect innings. He allowed two baserunners in his next start with six punchouts. He K’d eight hitters in each of his next two games, both with 3⅓ scoreless innings. He allowed his first run in his fifth start, then stretched out in his sixth with six shutout innings on 75 pitches. At this point, every box is checked.
“Seriously, when I say he’s pretty good, it’s different. I ain’t being dramatic,” said reliever Brent Honeywell, who was with the Padres and White Sox last season and played in Indianapolis with Skenes this season. “It’s like, oh, he throws hard, he throws hard, he throws hard. Yeah, that s—‘s cool and all, but the kid can flat-out pitch. Pitch. That dude paints. He throws it where it’s intended to go, and I think it’s the biggest thing that Paul Skenes does. He’s got a cool fastball. His heater’s really good. But that dude throws the ball where it’s supposed to go.”
Honeywell is right. It’s not just the fastball, which Skenes has thrown 46.9% of the time at an average of 100 mph on the dot. The splinker is a weapon, generating swings and misses 21% of the time as it sizzles up to 97 mph. Batters are hitting .158 against the slider. Five of the 11 curveballs Skenes has thrown have been on the first pitch, a surprise for anyone who dares sit fastball.
“The great ones have this ability to stretch their mind to these uncomfortable levels,” Johnson said. “That’s why they don’t give away at-bats. That’s how they don’t take pitches off. Paul already has that side of him. The Pirates knew what they were getting with the talent and body and raw numbers. But he’s so advanced on that kind of stuff.”
Knowing that their time with him was nearing its end, Skenes’ teammates in Indianapolis tried to enjoy the remaining moments. They’ll miss his outlandish performances, sure, but also his baseball knowledge and sense of humor. Grant Koch, who caught the majority of Skenes’ starts, had a running joke on days he didn’t play. If a reliever needed to warm up, Koch would toss Skenes his catcher’s mitt and say, within earshot of the coaching staff: “Hey, Paul, go grab him for me real quick. I’ve got to go to the bathroom.” The response, Koch said, from the coaches: “No, no, no, no.”
“When you’re around people that are great and special at what they do, you learn a lot being around them,” Koch said. “Pitching and game-planning-wise. Routine stuff. He takes his work very seriously. Hopefully I’ve made him comfortable and helped him in a way. But I’m appreciative of the time. It’s been a cool experience.”
Not just for a player like Koch who has yet to make the big leagues but one like Honeywell who’s angling to return. Six years ago, Honeywell was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball, universally ranked among the game’s 15 best. Though arm injuries waylaid Honeywell’s ascent, he emerged with the sort of perspective that few understand.
Everyone, Honeywell said, will want to get a hit off Skenes’ fastball — “just to tell their friends they did it.” And in the major leagues, where 29 pitchers this season have thrown 100 mph-plus fastballs, velocity doesn’t play quite the same. It’s necessary, he said, for Skenes to remember that as good as the fastball is, he’s far more than one impressive pitch.
“He knows where he is going,” Honeywell said. “He knows where he is headed. He knows what his job’s supposed to be. He goes about his business the right way. The kid just wants to pitch. And I think the kid was made to pitch.”
ONE NEED ONLY consider the careers of previous pitching phenoms Mark Prior and Stephen Strasburg to see how wrong things can go for even seemingly the safest of pitching prospects.
In 2002, Prior blew through the minor leagues in 51 innings and threw another 116⅔ that season. He jumped to 211⅓ innings the next year and at 22 years old looked like baseball’s next great ace. Arm injuries derailed his career. He threw his last big league pitch at 25.
In 2010, Strasburg was even better than Prior in 55⅓ minor league innings and threw another 68 before he tore his ulnar collateral ligament and needed Tommy John surgery. He returned in late 2011 for five starts and cruised through 159⅓ innings in 2012 before the Nationals shut him down three weeks before the postseason. On-and-off injuries limited him for the remainder of his career, and he threw his last meaningful pitch at 31.
Now it’s Skenes’ turn. And it comes at a trying time for pitchers, when for all of the gains the sport has seen in maximizing pitching performance and velocity, keeping elite arms healthy remains a high-stakes crapshoot.
“The pitching ecosystem knows so much about how to optimize: the body, the delivery, the way the arm works, how fast guys move, creating force,” Cherington said. “What hasn’t changed is the way the elbow and shoulder are built when you’re born. We have way more data. We should be way more precise about what’s going on.”
It will be years before the Pirates know if the plan worked. And even if it does — if Skenes stays healthy and turns into the next great ace — the line from plan to success is neither clear nor causative.
As scary as the prospect of Skenes improving on the fly might be for the rest of the NL Central, it’s what the Pirates need. Already this year they’ve added a hypertalented, hard-throwing, right-handed rookie to their rotation in Jared Jones. Pairing him with Skenes and right-hander Mitch Keller gives Pittsburgh the sort of starting staff that could be the envy of baseball sooner rather than later and perhaps convince owner Bob Nutting to push the Pirates’ payroll past $100 million for the first time.
Cherington avoids getting too far ahead of himself. He tries not to stress about the list of high-velocity pitchers and arm injuries. Shohei Ohtani isn’t pitching this season because of reconstructive elbow surgery. Nor are Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez. Gerrit Cole and Jesus Luzardo are out with elbow injuries, Grayson Rodriguez and Bobby Miller on the shelf with shoulder issues. That’s nine of the 10 hardest-throwing starters in 2023 — a spot Skenes and Jones are certain to fill in their absence.
“We don’t know exactly the right way to manage it,” Cherington said. “We don’t. We want to win games, and they give us a chance to make that happen. In most cases, we’d really like to have models that really inform our decisions. And then humans can stress those models and push them left and right. In this case, we don’t have a model telling us.”
Ahead they forge nevertheless, unclear if their plan was right, praying things don’t go wrong. Such is life in modern baseball, where you never know. You simply hope.
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Alden Gonzalez
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t just a baseball team these days. They are a symbol. For fans of the other 29 major league clubs, they are a source of either indignation or longing. For rival owners — and the commissioner who answers to them — they exemplify a widening payroll disparity that must be addressed. For players, and the union that represents them, they are a beacon, embodying all the traits of successful organizations: astute at player development, invested in behind-the-scenes components that make a difference and, most prominently, eager to pump their outsized revenues back into the roster.
The Dodgers employ seven players on nine-figure contracts, with five of those deals reached over the past 15 months. They also have the strongest farm system in the sport, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Their lineup is loaded and their rotation is decorated, but also their future looks bright and their resources seem limitless. And yet their chief architect, Andrew Friedman, isn’t ready for a victory lap.
“It just doesn’t really land with me in that way,” Friedman, entering his 11th year as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, said in a recent phone conversation. “I think once I get fired, once there’s like real distance between being mired in the day-to-day and when I’m not, I will be able to look back at those things. But for us right now, it all feels very precarious.
“We’ve seen a lot of really successful organizations that fall off a cliff and take a while to build back. We don’t take any of it for granted.”
Nothing lasts forever. Every empire has fallen, every dynasty has faded. But what the Dodgers have built feels uniquely sustainable. A glaring reminder came last month, when Major League Baseball’s commissioner, Rob Manfred, was asked whether outrage over the Dodgers’ spending reminded him of how fans felt about the star-laden New York Yankees teams of the early 2000s, commonly referred to as “The Evil Empire.”
The current Dodgers, Manfred said, “are probably more profitable on a percentage basis than the old Yankees were, meaning it could be more sustainable, so it is more of a problem.”
The word “problem” depends on one’s perspective. Dodgers fans certainly wouldn’t describe it as such. As the team prepares to begin its season on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs in Japan — a country in which they are revered, in a series sponsored by their ownership group — it’s worth understanding how the Dodgers got here.
It was the result of their process, but it also required several monumental steps over the past dozen years.
Below is a look at their biggest leaps.
Jan. 28, 2013: They signed a media megadeal
At the start of 2013, the Dodgers, less than a year into Guggenheim’s ownership, landed a massive local-media deal spanning 25 years and valued at $8.35 billion, or $334 million annually on average. But for the rest of that decade, it qualified as a massive headache. A stalemate between AT&T and Charter Communications meant more than half the Southern California market was unable to access the team’s channel, SportsNet LA, from 2014 to 2020.
As the impasse continued and tensions escalated, the Dodgers’ media deal came to symbolize a growing clash between sports channels that demand higher fees and content distributors wary of making customers pay for content they do not consume. Now — five years after the two sides finally struck a deal, airing Dodgers games on AT&T video platforms and nearly doubling the number of households to more than 3 million — it exemplifies a growing disparity that is rattling the industry.
The Dodgers’ local-media deal runs longer than most and is more expensive than any other, but here’s the kicker, according to a source familiar with the deal: While most regional sports networks are set up as subsidiaries underneath a corporate entity, leaving them in the lurch when they fall into hard times — like Diamond Sports Group, a former Sinclair subsidiary that was forced into bankruptcy when debt mounted and subscribers fell off — the Dodgers have complete corporate backing from Charter, a massive media conglomerate.
So not only do the Dodgers generate far more in local media than any of their competitors, but at a time when the linear-cable model is drying up and teams face increasing uncertainty with RSN contracts that represent about 20% of revenues, their deal is relatively iron-clad. That is especially valuable considering they’re in a division where three teams — the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies — have lost their local media deals.
Dec. 21, 2018: They swung a trade that streamlined their payroll
Four days before Christmas in 2018, the Dodgers executed a rare salary dump. Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and cash were sent to the Cincinnati Reds for Homer Bailey, who was promptly released, and two young players who would later help trigger blockbuster acquisitions, Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. The prospect component was secondary; the real benefit was the money saved, which gave the Dodgers additional wiggle room under the luxury-tax threshold and helped them remain debt-service compliant the following year.
In a bigger sense, it was the culmination of a multi-year effort by the front office to rid the Dodgers of bloated contracts and streamline a payroll that ultimately became burdened by massive deals for players like Kemp, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Adrián González. The Dodgers’ luxury-tax payroll dropped by about $50 million from 2017 to 2019, by which point only two players — A.J. Pollock and Kenta Maeda — were signed beyond the next two years. In Friedman’s mind, the Dodgers were now free to be aggressive.
“For our first four to five years, it was as much about trying to be as competitive as we could be while getting our future payroll outlook in a better spot,” he said. “At the end of the 2019 season was the first time we had reached that point and were in position to be more aggressive at the top of the free-agent class.”
Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon headlined that offseason’s free-agent class. The Dodgers didn’t come away with either of them.
They would soon make up for it.
Feb. 10, 2020: Mookie Betts became available — and they pounced
The Dodgers engaged in initial trade conversations around Betts leading up to the trade deadline in 2019, but then the Boston Red Sox won five of seven against the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees near the end of July, and suddenly Betts was unavailable. A tone was set nonetheless.
“We knew, with him going into his last year of control, that there was a chance they would look to trade him going into that offseason,” Friedman recalled. “There was a switch in their baseball-operations department, and Chaim Bloom was hired, who I have a good relationship with. I spent a lot of time talking to him in the beginning. For him, it was about getting his feet on the ground and understanding the organizational direction of what they were doing. And it wasn’t until January where he opened the door to engage.”
Friedman, who gave Bloom his first front-office job in Tampa, ultimately landed Betts and David Price for Alex Verdugo, Downs and another position-player prospect in Connor Wong on Feb. 10, 2020. Friedman had long coveted Betts not just for his supreme talent, but for his work ethic and competitive edge and how those qualities seemed to elevate those around him. Within five months, Betts agreed to a 12-year, $365 million extension, eschewing free agency.
March 17, 2022: Freddie Freeman became a surprise free agent addition
When Freeman hit free agency after winning the 2021 World Series with the Braves, Friedman assumed he would simply return to Atlanta. So did everyone else — Freeman included. He was a homegrown star poised to someday get his number retired and have a statue outside Truist Park. But initial conversations barely progressed, and the Dodgers saw an opening.
On the afternoon of Dec. 1, moments before the sport would shut down in the midst of a bitter labor fight, Dodgers players, coaches and executives gathered for Betts’ wedding in L.A. Friedman, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts and then-third baseman Justin Turner briefly stepped away to call Freeman. They wanted to leave a lasting impression before an owner-imposed lockout would prohibit communication between teams and players. They wanted to be the last club he heard from.
The message, essentially: Don’t forget about us.
Friedman said he “got off the call feeling like it was incredibly unlikely” that the Dodgers would land Freeman. But when the lockout ended on March 10, the Braves and Freeman’s then-agent, Casey Close, still couldn’t bridge the gap, either on length or value. Four days later, the Braves traded for another star first baseman in Matt Olson, leaving Freeman stunned. Three days after that, he pivoted to the Dodgers, coming to terms on a six-year, $162 million contract.
2022-23 offseason: They sat out the shortstop market
When Corey Seager became a free agent at the end of the 2021 season, the Dodgers had a ready-made replacement in Trea Turner, who had been acquired with Max Scherzer the previous summer in a deal that sent Gray and three other minor leaguers to the Washington Nationals. But when Turner himself became a free agent a year later, the Dodgers did nothing to shore up one of the sport’s most important positions.
Turner became part of a historic class of free-agent shortstops, along with Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The Dodgers didn’t pursue any of them, even though they didn’t have a clear replacement. The Dodgers could have avoided years of uncertainty at this position by locking in a proven star, but doing so was hardly entertained.
The reason is now obvious.
“With where we were commitment-wise,” Friedman said, “and with Shohei [Ohtani] coming up the next offseason, it was just a higher bar to clear for us to do something that would have any negative ability for us to pursue Shohei.”
Dec. 11, 2023: Ohtani chose them
By the time Ohtani became a free agent in November of 2023, the Dodgers’ roster was loaded but their payroll was manageable, with only Betts and Freeman guaranteed beyond the next two seasons. The Dodgers could boast a contending team — with two franchise pillars and a wealth of young talent — but also pitch Ohtani on the promise of adding other impact players around him, regardless of his monstrous contract. It worked.
Now, Dec. 11, 2023, stands as one of the most monumental dates in Dodgers history. Ohtani not only joined the Dodgers that day, but he agreed to defer more than 97% of his 10-year, $700 million contract. The Dodgers have become infamous for their propensity to defer money, a mechanism to provide players with a higher guarantee but, given the ability to invest deferred commitments, is mostly beneficial to the Dodgers (though perhaps not as much as one might think).
Ohtani’s deal was followed by the addition of two frontline starters — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who landed a contract worth $325 million, and Tyler Glasnow, who was acquired via trade and subsequently signed a five-year extension worth close to $140 million. Ohtani didn’t pitch in 2024, but he put together one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history, starting the 50/50 club and becoming the first full-time designated hitter to win an MVP.
Just as important, from the Dodgers’ perspective: He generated massive amounts of revenue.
Ohtani had MLB’s top-selling jersey by a wide margin. With him on the roster, the Dodgers struck sponsorship agreements with 11 different Japanese companies during the 2024 season. Two Ohtani bobblehead giveaways prompted fans to line up outside Dodger Stadium up to 10 hours before the first pitch. Japanese guided tours through the ballpark — a twice-a-day, four-day-a-week addition — never relented. The gift shops frequently had lines out the door.
The Dodgers won’t disclose how much additional revenue they generated from Ohtani last year, but team president Stan Kasten has repeatedly said it blew away even their most optimistic projections.
Oct. 9, 2024: They survived Game 4 of the NLDS
It’s amazing, given the space the Dodgers currently occupy, that five months ago they carried a reputation as, well, chokers. Their championship at the end of the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season had been thoroughly dismissed for its unconventionality. More prevalent in the general public’s mind was 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023, seasons that ended with talented teams getting eliminated early by inferior opponents.
The 2024 season was quickly headed in that direction. On Oct. 9, the Dodgers trailed a Padres club that was widely considered more well-rounded two-games-to-one in the best-of-five National League Division Series. Their depleted rotation had run out of starters. They would stage a bullpen game with their season on the line. And they would survive. The Dodgers shut out the Padres in Game 4, shut them out again in Game 5, then cruised past the New York Mets and Yankees to capture their first full-season championship since 1988.
What followed was a second straight offseason in which the Dodgers added practically every player they wanted. That included a frontline starter (Blake Snell), two corner outfielders (Teoscar Hernandez and Michael Conforto), three premium bullpen pieces (Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Blake Treinen), two fan favorites (Clayton Kershaw and Kiké Hernández) and one of the most alluring pitching prospects in a generation (Roki Sasaki). A key utility player (Tommy Edman) was also extended. The cost: another $466.5 million in guaranteed money, immediately after an offseason in which they guaranteed close to $1.4 billion in signings and extensions.
Roberts, fresh off a record-setting extension, has talked about how he might have been fired had he not navigated his Dodgers past the Padres last fall. Friedman acknowledged that the Dodgers probably don’t spend as much if they don’t win the World Series and generate the extra revenue that comes from it, though he called that “a lazy guess.”
Still, when asked how often he has thought about how life would be different if the Dodgers hadn’t won Game 4 of the 2024 NLDS, Friedman said: “Zero minutes.”
“We have been on the good side of those games and on the bad side of those games,” he added, “and I’ve spent zero minutes thinking about what the world would look like if the outcome had been different.”
All that matters now is a reality that exhilarates their fans and infuriates everyone else: The Dodgers look about as insurmountable as a franchise can be in this sport.
The Boston Bruins‘ approach to the trade deadline indicated that perhaps management thought this wasn’t their year, and they would add some future assets for a quick reload this offseason.
But as the chips fall on Monday, the Bruins still have a chance to make the playoffs.
That all begins with a game against the lottery-bound Buffalo Sabres Monday night (7 p.m., ESPN+). A win in that one closes the gap between Boston and the current first wild card, the New York Rangers. The Rangers have 72 points and 30 regulation wins through 68 games, while Boston is at 68 and 23 through 68.
After Buffalo, it’s a road trip through Nevada and California (Golden Knights on Thursday, Sharks on Saturday, Kings on Sunday and Ducks on Wednesday, March 26). All told, the Bruins will play teams currently in playoff position in six of the final 13 games after the matchup with the Sabres; the final five, in particular, could be a spot to make up ground, with two against the injury-struck Devils along with single games against the Sabres, Blackhawks and Penguins.
To be clear, this would be a long shot; in addition to going on a hot streak, the Bruins will need to jump ahead of four teams (which would all need to get cold, in this hypothetical). Stathletes isn’t so sure all of that will fall into place, giving the Bruins a 2.4% chance of making the postseason. But stranger things have happened in recent seasons!
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 New York Rangers
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Monday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Sunday’s scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings 3, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Colorado Avalanche 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Edmonton Oilers 3, New York Rangers 1
New York Islanders 4, Florida Panthers 2
St. Louis Blues 7, Anaheim Ducks 2
Utah Hockey Club 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Winnipeg Jets 3, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: vs. PHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 95.7
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88.2
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 20.2%
Tragic number: 32
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: @ WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 5.3%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. BUF (Monday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 73.2
Next game: @ BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 21
Metro Division
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 117.5
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 94.1
Next game: @ CBJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 95.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 86.8
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 53.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 87.0
Next game: vs. NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 16.7%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 84.5
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 78.4
Next game: vs. NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.8%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 77.2
Next game: @ TB (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.5%
Tragic number: 21
Central Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118.2
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 108.1
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 96.7
Next game: vs. LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 91%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 88.0
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 32.5%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 86.9
Next game: @ EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 17%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 72.1
Next game: vs. STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 60.0
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 7
Pacific Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 100.4
Next game: vs. UTA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 41.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 89.6
Next game: @ TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 18.7%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 76.0
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 1
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
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