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The prospects for an interest rate cut next month have not been helped by the latest wage growth figures which have come in higher than expected.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed regular wage growth, excluding the effects of bonuses, was 6% higher over the three months to March compared with a year earlier.

That was no lower than the sum reported the previous month.

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The ONS reported that total pay was also static, at an upwardly revised 5.7% for the period.

Economists had been expecting declines in both readings.

The data also showed a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%.

ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: “We continue to see tentative signs that the jobs market is cooling, with both employment from our household survey and the number of workers on payroll showing falls in the latest periods.

“At the same time, the steady decline in the number of job vacancies has continued for a twenty-second consecutive month, although numbers remain above pre-pandemic levels.

“With unemployment also increasing, the number of unemployed people per vacancy has continued to rise, approaching levels seen before the onset of COVID-19.

“Earnings growth in cash terms remains high, with the recent falls in the rate now levelling off while, with inflation falling, real pay growth remains at its highest level in well over two years.”

The figures were released against a backdrop of intense speculation on the timing of a Bank of England interest rate cut.

The Bank, which last week signalled further progress in efforts to bring down inflation, has held the rate at 5.25% since last summer.

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‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates

The rate-setting committee wants to see a “sustainable” return to its 2% inflation target before imposing the first cut.

Wage growth has been among the stubborn factors of concern.

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The Bank feels that the pace, currently around double the rate of price growth, risks fuelling a second round of inflation because more discretionary spending could result in higher prices.

Its chief economist Huw Pill later said in a speech that the pay growth rates remain “quite well above” what would be consistent for meeting the target sustainably.

Inflation figures out next week, which cover the month of April, are tipped to show a sharp easing in the main consumer prices index (CPI) measure, largely due to plunging energy bills.

A figure just above 2% is forecast by economists.

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UK comes out of recession

The Bank has resisted the temptation to cut borrowing costs as it believes that figure could shift back up towards 3% in the second half of the year.

Financial markets saw a 53% chance of a rate cut on 20 June – the monetary policy committee’s (MPC’s) next meeting.

While restrictive monetary policy was largely blamed for the UK’s recession during the second half of 2023, the economy has since performed better than expected.

That complicates the picture for the MPC.

Separate ONS data last week showed a 0.6% rise in gross domestic product during the first quarter of the year.

As with the wage figures, the Bank will be anxious that a growth spurt risks fanning the flames of inflation.

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Policymakers have said their decisions will be data dependent.

There is a further employment report due from the ONS ahead of 20 June and two sets of inflation figures between today and that date.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said of the rate cut prospects: “Next month will be key in terms of pay data as it will provide initial evidence of the impact of April’s National Living Wage increase.

“If it comes in line with our expectations of only a modest boost, and sufficient to keep annual pay growth on a downward trajectory, this could ignite more dovish sentiment on the MPC ahead of their June vote.”

Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believed the Bank would back a rate cut at its next meeting.

“Much as we have concerns over the jobs data, the labour market keeps gradually easing, and they give the MPC a hook to hang a June rate cut on,” he wrote.

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

The publisher of the Daily Mail has held talks in recent days about taking a minority stake in the Telegraph newspapers as part of a deal to end the two-year impasse over their ownership.

Sky News has learnt that Lord Rothermere, who controls Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT), was in detailed negotiations late last week which would have seen him taking a 9.9% stake in the Telegraph titles.

It was unclear on Monday whether the talks were still live or whether they would result in a deal, with one adviser suggesting that the discussions may have faltered.

One insider said that if DMGT did acquire a stake in the Telegraph, the transaction would be used as a platform to explore the sharing of costs across the two companies.

They would, however, remain editorially independent.

Sources said that RedBird and IMI, whose joint venture owns a call option to convert debt secured against the Telegraph into equity, were hoping to announce a deal for the future ownership of the media group this week, potentially on Thursday.

However, the insider suggested that a transaction could yet be struck without any involvement from DMGT.

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The progress in the talks to seal new ownership for the right-leaning titles comes days after the government said it would allow foreign state investors to hold stakes of up to 15% in British national newspapers.

That would pave the way for Abu Dhabi royal family-controlled IMI to own 15% of the Daily and Sunday Telegraph – a prospect which has sparked outrage from critics including the former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson.

The decision to set the ownership threshold at 15% follows an intensive lobbying campaign by newspaper industry executives concerned that a permanent outright ban could cut off a vital source of funding to an already-embattled industry.

RedBird Capital, the US-based fund, has already said it is exploring the possibility of taking full control of the Telegraph, while IMI would have – if the status quo had been maintained – been forced to relinquish any involvement in the right-leaning broadsheets.

Other than RedBird, a number of suitors for the Telegraph have expressed interest but struggled to raise the funding for a deal.

The most notable of these has been Dovid Efune, owner of The New York Sun, who has been trying for months to raise the £550m sought by RedBird IMI to recoup its outlay.

On Sunday, the Financial Times reported that Mr Efune has secured backing from Jeremy Hosking, the prominent City investor.

Another potential offer from Todd Boehly, the Chelsea Football Club co-owner, and media tycoon David Montgomery, has failed to materialise.

RedBird IMI paid £600m in 2023 to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.

That objective was thwarted by a change in media ownership laws – which banned any form of foreign state ownership – amid an outcry from parliamentarians.

The Spectator was then sold last year for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Lord Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.

The UAE-based IMI, which is controlled by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, extended a further £600m to the Barclays to pay off a loan owed to Lloyds Banking Group, with the balance secured against other family-controlled assets.

Other bidders for the Telegraph had included Lord Saatchi, the former advertising mogul, who offered £350m, while Lord Rothermere, the Daily Mail proprietor, pulled out of the bidding for control of his rival’s titles last summer amid concerns that he would be blocked on competition grounds.

The Telegraph’s ownership had been left in limbo by a decision taken by Lloyds Banking Group, the principal lender to the Barclay family, to force some of the newspapers’ related corporate entities into a form of insolvency proceedings.

DMGT, RedBird and IMI all declined to comment.

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Energy bills set for series of falls as price cap due to be lowered, says forecaster

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Energy bills set for series of falls as price cap due to be lowered, says forecaster

Energy bills are set to fall from this July and will continue to drop in the autumn and winter, a forecaster has said.

Households will be charged £129 less for a typical annual bill from July as the energy price cap is due to fall, according to energy consultants Cornwall Insight.

From July, an average dual fuel bill will be £1,720 a year, 7% below the current price cap of £1,849 a year.

The price cap limits the cost per unit of energy and is revised every three months by the energy regulator Ofgem.

The official announcement from Ofgem will be made on Friday.

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Bills had already been made more expensive for three three-month periods, or quarters, in a row, in October, January, and April, as wholesale gas prices rose and European stores of the fossil fuel were depleted due to cold weather.

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Electricity prices are tied to gas prices.

The UK is also heavily reliant on gas for home heating and uses a significant amount for electricity generation.

Drops when the cap is next changed in October and January will be “modest”, Cornwall Insight said.

Price falls are not a certainty, however, as weather patterns, gas storage rules, the war in Ukraine, and tariffs could all change pricing.

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Which bills rose in April?

Bills still high since Ukraine war

Energy costs have remained elevated following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and bills are still “well above” the levels seen at the start of the decade, said Cornwall Insight’s principal consultant, Dr Craig Lowrey.

“Prices are falling, but not by enough for the numerous households struggling under the weight of a cost-of-living crisis.

“As such, there remains a risk that energy will remain unaffordable for many,” he said.

“If prices can go down, they can bounce back up, especially with the unsettled global economic and political landscape we are experiencing. This is not the moment for complacency.”

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The government was called on by Mr Lowrey to explore options such as social tariffs, where vulnerable customers could pay less.

Proposals, including zonal pricing, which would see different regions of the country pay different rates, based on local supply and demand levels, are important but must be balanced with the urgent affordability crisis people are facing now, he said.

The continued growth of domestically produced renewable energy is “a positive step forward” and a cause for optimism as it helps protect against global energy price shocks and improves energy security, Mr Lowrey added.

“That progress needs to continue at pace, not just for the net zero transition, but to help build a more stable and secure energy future for all.”

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UK-EU trade deal: What is in the Brexit reset agreement?

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UK-EU trade deal: What is in the Brexit reset agreement?

The UK and the EU have agreed a new trade deal – five years after Brexit kicked in.

Following six months of talks after Sir Keir Starmer promised a fresh deal when he became prime minister last July, the two sides have come to an agreement.

Here are the details:

eGates

British passport holders will be able to use more eGates in Europe to avoid the long border control queues that have become the norm since Brexit in many EU countries.

Pet travel

Pet passports will be brought back so cats and dogs coming from the UK will no longer need pricey animal health certificates for every trip. After Brexit, pet owners had to get a certificate from a vet in the UK then a vet in the EU before returning.

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Pic: iStock
Image:
Pets will now be allowed to travel on a pet passport instead of having to have a health certificate every time they travel. Pic: iStock

Red tape on food and drink sales

A new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) deal has been agreed to reduce red tape currently needed to import and export food and drink between the UK and the EU.

There is no time limit to this part of the deal, which the government says will reduce the burden on businesses and reduce lorry queues at the border.

The “vast majority” of routine checks and certificates for animal and plant products will be removed completely, including between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The government says this could lower food prices and increase choice on supermarket shelves.

Some British foods that have been prevented from being sold in the EU since Brexit will be allowed back in again, including burgers and sausages.

Fishing rights

The current fishing deal agreed in 2020 will continue for 12 years.

There will be no increase in fish quotas.

The Cornish fishing village of Padstow.
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British fishing rights will continue for 12 years. Pic: PA

EU fishing vessels can fish in UK waters, but they require a valid licence, and there are annual negotiations on access and share of stock.

The UK government has announced a £360m investment into the fishing industry to go towards new technology and equipment to modernise the fleet, train the workforce, help revitalise coastal communities, support tourism and boost seafood exports.

Defence

A new security and defence partnership has been agreed so the UK defence industry can participate in the EU’s plan for a £150bn defence fund called Security Action for Europe (SAFE). This will support thousands of British jobs.

The UK and EU will also enhance cooperation over maritime security and accident reporting.

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Carbon tax

The deal will see closer co-operation on emissions by the UK and the EU, linking their own emissions trading systems.

The UK’s scheme sets a cap on the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed from the power generation sector, energy-intensive industries and aviation, with companies issued allowances that they can trade with each other.

Under the deal, UK businesses will avoid being hit by the EU’s carbon tax, due to come in next year, which would have handed £800m to the EU.

Steel

British steel exports will be protected from new EU rules and tariffs to save UK steel £25m a year.

Further talks:

Youth mobility scheme

The UK and the EU have agreed to more negotiations on a youth mobility scheme to allow people aged 18-30 in the UK and the EU to move freely between countries for a limited period.

The scheme would include visas for young people working, studying, volunteering, travelling and working as au pairs.

Erasmus

The EU and the UK have agreed they should work towards an Erasmus programme, the student exchange programme which was scrapped when Brexit took place.

Catching criminals

The two sides have agreed to enter talks about the UK having access to EU facial images data to help catch dangerous criminals.

Migration

The two sides have agreed to further work on finding solutions to tackle illegal migration, including on returns and a joint commitment to tackle Channel crossings.

Electricity

The UK and the EU said they should explore the UK’s participation in the EU’s internal electricity market, including in its trading platforms.

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