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While some of the usual players dominate our list, five of our top teams this week are in two unexpected divisions — the AL and NL Central.

Coming into the 2024 season, expectations of success were high for the perennial postseason contenders but not so much for some of the clubs in the Central divisions. However, through seven weeks, the Guardians are tied with the Braves for the fifth best run differential in MLB, the Royals’ offense has put more than 200 runs on the board and the Brewers have scored the third-most runs in the majors.

Can these squads stay on a roll as we get deeper into the season?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 6 | Preseason rankings

Record: 29-16
Previous ranking: 1

Shohei Ohtani nearly produced a “Splash Hit” at Oracle Park in a 10-2 victory over the division rival Giants on Tuesday, the Dodgers’ fifth consecutive win against them this season. It traveled 446 feet. “Barry territory,” as Dodgers manager and former Barry Bonds teammate Dave Roberts put it. By the end of the night, Ohtani’s slash line stood at .361/.427/.680, his 1.108 OPS leading the major leagues but just barely ahead of teammate Mookie Betts‘. The top half of the Dodgers’ lineup has been an absolute force, but lately it’s their pitching that has been arguably most impressive. The Dodgers have held opponents to four runs or less in every game this month. — Gonzalez


Record: 31-13
Previous ranking: 2

The Phillies have soared to the best record in the majors thanks to a 15-3 stretch that saw them outscore opponents by 59 runs. At 30-13 heading into Wednesday’s game, it ranks as the second-best record through 43 games in franchise history — the 1976 Phillies started 32-11 on their way to 101 wins and an NL East title. Those Phillies had Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt, two Hall of Famers. These Phillies have Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm filling the roles of ace lefty and hard-hitting third baseman. Suarez continues to baffle opposing hitters with a 7-0 record and 1.50 ERA in eight starts while Bohm is hitting .331 with 35 RBIs in 43 games. — Schoenfield


Record: 26-14
Previous ranking: 4

The Braves bounced back from a sweep by the Dodgers with a two-game sweep of the Red Sox and then series wins against the Mets and Cubs. Through Tuesday, the pitching staff had a seven-game stretch in which it allowed just nine runs with a 1.16 ERA — and a 19-game stretch where it had a 2.25 ERA and allowed more than four runs just once. Chris Sale has led the way with wins in five straight starts, including consecutive scoreless outings against the Red Sox and Cubs with 19 strikeouts and one walk over 13 innings. So far, the Sale trade looks like one of the best transactions of the offseason. — Schoenfield


Record: 27-14
Previous ranking: 3

The four-game series between the Orioles and Yankees at the turn of the month was framed as the season’s first AL East showdown between arguably the two best teams in the American League. And Baltimore’s 7-2 win on May 2 closed an emphatic early statement as the Orioles took three of four from the Yankees at Camden Yards to seize first place in the division. Their places in the standings have since flipped again Tuesday, and it probably won’t be the last time. These teams have nine more regular-season meetings — and maybe a few more in October. — Castillo


Record: 29-15
Previous ranking: 5

Rarely this season has the Yankees’ bullpen — one of the best in baseball by most indicators — combusted and required a bailout from the offense. But it happened, led by one of their struggling veterans, in a 10-6 win over the Rays on Sunday. Tampa Bay, down 6-0, scored five runs off left-handers Caleb Ferguson and Nick Burdi in the seventh inning to pull within one. The Yankees offense, as streaky as any, responded with a four-spot in the eighth inning to put the Rays away. Gleyber Torres, off to an alarmingly poor start heading into free agency, led the counter with a three-run home run. The second baseman then went 2-for-5 when the Yankees beat the Twins on Tuesday, raising his OPS to .569. Getting Torres on track should raise New York’s run-scoring ceiling in support of one of the top pitching staffs in the game. — Castillo


Record: 27-17
Previous ranking: 6

The Guardians are third in the AL in runs scored despite ranking 10th in batting average, sixth in OBP and eighth in slugging percentage. Their best numbers, however, have come with runners in scoring position: .290/.382/.470. Their .852 OPS with RISP is the third-highest in the majors behind the Brewers and Rangers. Andres Gimenez is hitting .447 with RISP while Gimenez, David Fry, Estevan Florial, Bo Naylor, Josh Naylor and Will Brennan each have an OPS over .900. It’s working so far, but the Guardians are unlikely to remain as hot all season in those situations. — Schoenfield


Record: 26-17
Previous ranking: 10

Unlike some teams in the NL Central, Milwaukee has had a streak of great victories recently. Was it the come-from-behind, ninth-inning win over Kansas City on May 7? Or perhaps it was one of the three drubbings of the Cardinals a few days later. The Brewers continue to score runs at a surprising rate as they totaled 37 in five wins over the past week. Their 11-2 blowout of St. Louis on May 10 stands out simply because they scored double digits without the aid of a home run. MVP candidate William Contreras scored three times while shortstop Willy Adames hit three doubles. Milwaukee is looking more and more like it has staying power. — Rogers


Record: 25-19
Previous ranking: 8

While rookie Shota Imanaga is garnering all the headlines, you would be hard-pressed to find another lesser-known starter having a better year than righty Javier Assad. Any of his outings could be considered among the best of late — or even the season. His six shutout innings against the first-place Brewers on May 5 was a thing of beauty as he only struck out four hitters, allowing his defense to do its thing. Assad is old-school, relying on a sinker as much as any other pitch. He throws three different pitches about the same number of times — also an old-school trait. The 5-0 win that day secured the series victory and moved the Cubs into a virtual tie for first place at the time. It also lowered Assad’s ERA to a nifty 1.66. — Rogers


Record: 24-18
Previous ranking: 9

The Twins’ 3-1 win over the Red Sox on May 4 was, in a vacuum, a ho-hum result. But zoom out and a season-changing stretch appears: That victory was Minnesota’s 12th straight, vaulting the club from 7-13 to 19-13 in less than two weeks. The Twins launched the invigorating run with 10 consecutive wins over the White Sox and Angels, two of the league’s bottom feeders. But a 12-game winning streak against anybody at this level is a significant feat. For the Twins, it erased a rocky start — and perhaps kept their hopes for another AL Central title alive. — Castillo


Record: 26-19
Previous ranking: 12

The Royals’ propensity for dialing up their offense in the late innings was on full display on May 10 in Anaheim, at an hour when many of their fans back in the Midwest had retired for the evening. And you couldn’t blame them since the KC offense showed little life against Griffin Canning and three relievers, who turned over a 1-0 lead to closer Carlos Estevez in the ninth. Estevez retired Michael Massey, but MJ Melendez singled. Then Adam Frazier yanked a 2-0 fastball just inside the right-field foul pole for his first homer as a Royal. The Royals held on for the win. They rank in the middle of the pack in most key offensive categories, including runs. However, after the seventh inning, they are tied for second in runs, third in homers and have the highest team OPS with runners in scoring position. — Doolittle


Record: 24-20
Previous ranking: 11

Here are three facts that, before the season, you would not think could be true for Seattle at the same time. First, Julio Rodriguez has played in every game. Second, he has two home runs. Third, the Mariners have been in, or close to, first place in the AL West for the past month. Rodriguez went homerless over his first 22 games before going deep on April 23. Rather than the start of a trend, he then went homerless in his next 17 games. Finally, on May 12, he hit a two-run jack to dead center off Oakland lefty Alex Wood to end the drought. A trend this time? Maybe. The blast came amid a string of six straight balls Rodriguez hit into play that topped 100 mph in exit velocity. If fact No. 3 for Seattle (first place) is to continue, you have to believe that fact No. 2 (very few J-Rod dingers) can’t continue. — Doolittle


Record: 23-22
Previous ranking: 7

May has been a struggle for Rangers pitching, recalling the late-summer fade by the staff in 2023 that threatened to sink their breakout season. It worked out, obviously, but it wasn’t a pattern they necessarily want to replicate. What is concerning is that the problem hasn’t been the Rangers’ injury-riddled rotation but a bullpen that has fallen into disarray despite a depth chart long on proven options.

This trend might have reached its apex on May 13. After seven shutout, one-hit innings from Michael Lorenzen, the Rangers lost 7-0 to the Guardians, who scored all of their runs in the eighth and ninth against the Texas bullpen. That brought the Rangers’ bullpen ERA in May to an eye-jabbing 9.16. It’s too early to panic, but some kind of stable pecking order needs to be found or else it might not matter when their recovering rotation stars begin to return to active duty. — Doolittle


Record: 22-21
Previous ranking: 13

The Red Sox have overcome a cascade of injuries to remain above water behind their unexpectedly elite starting rotation. On Saturday, that group received a boost when Brayan Bello came off the injured list to pitch five innings in Boston’s 3-2 win over the Nationals. The right-hander held Washington to two runs on four hits in his first start after missing nearly a month with lat tightness. Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford have shined atop Boston’s rotation. The 24-year-old Bello should help. — Castillo


Record: 22-24
Previous ranking: 14

Luis Arraez compiled four hits in his Padres debut on May 4, but he took it a step further in his home debut on Friday — delivering the walk-off hit against the hated Dodgers in a 2-1 victory. It was the start of a weekend in which the Padres took two of three from the Dodgers and set a Petco Park attendance record for a three-game series. That, however, was followed by a three-game sweep to the lowly Rockies, a reminder that these Padres are still not clicking on all cylinders. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Ha-Seong Kim in particular have struggled, but the starting rotation has been better and Joe Musgrove is expected to rejoin them in Atlanta over the weekend. — Gonzalez


Record: 21-23
Previous ranking: 19

The magic that carried Arizona through a thrilling October has been elusive this season, but a flicker of it arrived on Monday night. Down a run in the bottom of the ninth, with the bases loaded against All-Star closer Edwin Diaz, Kevin Newman reached out his hands and dropped a base hit into a vacant right field for a walk-off victory. It was the Diamondbacks’ sixth win in a stretch of eight games, a sign that perhaps they might be starting to turn the corner. But they can’t fully do so until Corbin Carroll gets going. And he continues to struggle, his slash line sitting at .193/.284/.255. — Gonzalez


Record: 21-22
Previous ranking: 15

Reese Olson pitched eight scoreless innings against the lowly Marlins on Tuesday, but the Tigers lost 1-0. Olson’s ERA is down to 2.06, and yet somehow the 24-year-old right-hander has an 0-4 record. The Tigers are averaging just 2.13 runs in his starts, making Olson last in the majors in run support. He embodies a larger scale problem for his team, which boasts one of the sport’s best pitching staffs but also one of its worst offenses. It won’t get much better unless Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith finds a way to get going. Add those two and the perpetually struggling Javier Baez and you get a combined .188/.244/.261 slash line from three critical infielders. — Gonzalez


Record: 22-22
Previous ranking: 16

A week after getting swept by the bumbling White Sox, the Rays walked off the Mets in a 10-inning comeback victory to complete their first sweep of the season. Down to their final out in the ninth inning, the Rays had Randy Arozarena, scuffling badly to begin the season, deliver an improbable game-tying solo home run off Mets closer Edwin Díaz. The Mets scored on an error in the 10th inning, putting the Rays on the ropes again, before Jonny DeLuca, in his third game of the season, walked it off with a two-run triple. The Rays are .500 despite a minus-30 run differential thanks to being 7-4 in one-run games and 3-2 in extra-inning games. — Castillo


Record: 19-23
Previous ranking: 20

It’s mid-May, but the Blue Jays need every win to stay within striking distance of a postseason spot. On Monday, they secured an impressive one in 10 innings against the Orioles in Baltimore behind Daulton Varsho. With Toronto down one in the eighth inning, Varsho delivered a tying home run off Yennier Cano. Two innings later, Varsho’s RBI groundout gave the Blue Jays their first lead and, eventually, the win to move to three games under .500 and five games out of the third wild-card spot. The Blue Jays showed some life. They need plenty more to avoid disappointment — and, maybe, a fire sale. — Castillo


Record: 19-23
Previous ranking: 18

It feels a little bit like a dangerous time for the Mets as they’ve hit another rough patch and fallen way behind the Phillies and Braves in the division race. The offense continues to scuffle as only Brandon Nimmo, DJ Stewart and J.D. Martinez have an OBP over .325. Brett Baty hasn’t hit for much power, Jeff McNeil and Harrison Bader have just one home run each, Starling Marte is running a .300 OBP, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are below their career norms and the catchers haven’t produced anything since Francisco Alvarez went on the IL. The pitching has arguably been better than expected, and Christian Scott looks like a nice addition to the rotation, but the lineup needs to get going. — Schoenfield


Record: 20-22
Previous ranking: 21

Yes, that’s the Nationals sitting 14th in the majors with a 3.97 rotation ERA — a huge improvement so far over last season, when they ranked 25th with a 5.02 ERA. The key has been home run suppression. Last year, only Rockies starters allowed more home runs. This year, Nationals starters have allowed 17, the fewest in the majors. Trevor Williams has allowed one in 41⅔ innings, MacKenzie Gore three in 40 innings and Jake Irvin four in 45⅔ innings. Even Patrick Corbin has allowed just four (although he has otherwise been hit hard). On offense, Eddie Rosario, struggling all season, broke out with a .467 average and three home runs last week to win NL Player of the Week honors. — Schoenfield


Record: 18-25
Previous ranking: 22

Houston has shown signs of halting an early-season downfall that threatened to turn into the kind of avalanche that would put an end to its AL West domination. But for the Astros to end up back where we are accustomed to finding them — in some late-October postseason series — they need their longtime stars to prove that their talents haven’t started to dim. No one exemplifies that need more than Alex Bregman, who through May 12 was hitting .201/.270/.264 with one homer in 159 plate appearances. We pick that cutoff date because of what Houston’s venerable third baseman did on May 13, going 3-for-3 with two homers, a double and a walk in a 9-2 thrashing of Oakland. In one fell sweep, Bregman raised his OPS from .534 to .615. The Astros need to see a lot more of that. — Doolittle


Record: 18-25
Previous ranking: 17

Signature wins have been tough to come by for the Reds this month, but they got one recently in Arizona when Hunter Greene threw seven solid innings while giving up just five hits and one walk in a 6-2 win. It’s what the doctor ordered considering all the injuries Cincinnati has endured. Greene really needs to be the man for the Reds if they have any chance to recover from the hole they’ve dug. He lowered his ERA to 3.27 after that outing to help stop the bleeding for his team, currently mired near the cellar in the division. — Rogers


Record: 19-25
Previous ranking: 23

The most exciting game of perhaps the season for the Pirates has to be the debut of Paul Skenes, last year’s No. 1 pick in the draft. Skenes went four innings, giving up three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out seven Cubs hitters. He looked great but his bullpen looked anything but as it walked eight batters including six with the bases loaded. The Pirates recovered from a seven-run fifth inning to win, thanks to five home runs by five different players. A signature win, indeed. — Rogers


Record: 20-25
Previous ranking: 25

The Giants walked off the Reds and clinched a series victory on Sunday, but grim news came with it: Jung Hoo Lee, their center fielder and leadoff hitter, crashed into the wall while chasing a Jeimer Candelario drive in the first inning and dislocated his left shoulder. He was placed on the IL the following day alongside fellow outfielders Michael Conforto, Austin Slater and Jorge Soler. An MRI then revealed that he suffered structural damage in the shoulder, and he’ll get a second opinion on Thursday. That’s four outfielders hurt, plus both catchers (Patrick Bailey and Tom Murphy) and an everyday shortstop (Nick Ahmed). The Giants don’t have the position-player depth to sustain this type of attrition. To be fair, few teams would. — Gonzalez


Record: 19-26
Previous ranking: 24

Depending on which advanced metric you look at, ninth-inning sensation Mason Miller has ranked as Oakland’s best player. When a short reliever leads a team in a value metric, it might say as much about the team as the player — but there is no doubting that Miller has been sensational. His work, along with some of his high-leverage cohorts, is the biggest reason why the A’s have spent much of the season playing a lot more respectable baseball than anticipated. On May 8, Miller threw two shutout innings against Texas in a 9-4 win. Though it wasn’t a save situation, it was a dominant, multi-inning outing that further bolstered the résumé of a pitcher who might emerge as the most tantalizing target as the trade deadline approaches in July. — Doolittle


Record: 18-25
Previous ranking: 26

An eight-run seventh inning against the Angels on Monday propelled St. Louis to its sweetest win in quite some time. Down 4-0 at the time, the Cardinals went on a tear, compiling seven hits in the inning to go along with three walks and a hit batter. Everything came together for them at the plate, something that hasn’t happened often for their offense this season. Perhaps it carried over to the next night when the Cardinals tallied seven more runs in another victory. Considering they rank near the bottom of MLB in OPS this year, any confidence boost could be huge. — Rogers


Record: 16-28
Previous ranking: 27

In baseball, most instances of bad news come with a silver lining. For the Angels, the primary beneficiary of Mike Trout‘s injury has been veteran Kevin Pillar. Pillar began the season with the wretched White Sox, a team so bereft of power bats that they used Pillar as a cleanup hitter five times. Prior to this season, he had started a game in the four-spot just five times during a big league career that began in 2013.

After Pillar rejected an outright assignment by Chicago and became a free agent, he latched on with an Angels squad desperate for bodies. Since then, Pillar has not just hit like a cleanup hitter, he’s kind of hit like Trout. In fact, manager Ron Washington has also used Pillar in the cleanup slot, including on May 13 when he hit a two-run homer against St. Louis. In 10 games as an Angel, he has hit .455 with three homers and 14 RBIs. Very Trout-like. — Doolittle


Record: 15-28
Previous ranking: 29

The Rockies went winless through their first 12 series during which they never once notched back-to-back victories. Then they won a series finale against the Giants, swept the defending champion Rangers and claimed claimed three consecutive victories in another sweep over the Padres, the last of which was an 8-0 win from Petco Park on Wednesday. It was, improbably, their seventh consecutive win, giving the Rockies their longest winning streak since 2019. The Rockies became the second team in major league history to win seven straight games after previously not winning even two straight all season (minimum 30 games played prior to the streak). The other, according to ESPN Stats & Information: The 1889 Indianapolis Hoosiers. — Gonzalez


Record: 14-30
Previous ranking: 30

Any one of three wins against the Guardians earlier this month could be considered Chicago’s best of the season considering each team’s record coming into the series. The Guardians were 23-14 while the White Sox were 9-28 before they took the first three games of a four-game series. In doing so, they gave up a total of six runs thanks to great production from their rotation and bullpen. Among the best performances was Garrett Crochet‘s 11 strikeouts over six innings in a 6-3 win. It propelled Crochet to the top of the AL in strikeouts while helping Chicago continue a win streak that stretched to four by Sunday. Alas, the sweep wasn’t in the cards as Cleveland salvaged the series finale 7-0. — Rogers


Record: 13-32
Previous ranking: 28

Before Tuesday’s 1-0 win in 10 innings over the Tigers, in which Ryan Weathers took a perfect game into the sixth and pitched eight scoreless innings for his best start, the Marlins had gone 2-8 over their previous 10 games with 71 runs allowed, including seven games where they allowed at least six runs. A.J. Puk is back from shoulder fatigue, but he’ll return to the bullpen after struggling to throw strikes in four starts to open the season as the Marlins tried to transition him to the rotation. Meanwhile, Marlins catchers are hitting .126/.163/.178. — Schoenfield

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Jets stick up for Hellebuyck after latest playoff dud

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Jets stick up for Hellebuyck after latest playoff dud

The Winnipeg Jets defended star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck after another disastrous performance on the road, a 5-2 loss Friday night in which the St. Louis Blues forced Game 7 in their Stanley Cup Playoff opening-round series.

Hellebuyck was pulled after the second period in favor of backup Eric Comrie, the third straight game in St. Louis that he failed to finish. Hellebuyck surrendered five goals on 23 shots, including four goals on eight shots during a 5-minute, 23-second stretch in the second period that cost the Jets the game.

As has become tradition in this series, Blues fans mockingly chanted, “We want Connor!” after Hellebuyck left the game and the Jets’ bench.

“This isn’t about Connor,” Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said. “Tonight was not about Connor. Tonight, we imploded in front of him. Now, it’s a one-game showdown. It’s our goalie against their goalie, our best players against their best, our grinders against theirs. I have a lot of confidence in our [entire] group — not just Helly.”

Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy last season as the NHL’s top goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. He also won the award in 2019-20 and is the favorite to win it for a third time this season. Hellebuyck is also a finalist for the 2024-25 Hart Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s most valuable player. He was the starting goaltender for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February and was expected to do the same for the U.S. in next year’s Winter Olympics in Italy.

But his recent performances in the Stanley Cup playoffs have been the antithesis of that success.

Over the past three postseasons, two of which the Jets lost in the first round in just five games, Hellebuyck is 5-11 with an .860 save percentage.

Hellebuyck failed to finish any of the three games played in St. Louis during the series. He was pulled with 9:28 left in regulation in Game 3, having given up six goals on 25 shots. In Game 4, Hellebuyck was pulled 2:01 into the third period after surrendering five goals on 18 shots. Hellebuyck has allowed four or more goals in seven straight road playoff games, tying the second-longest streak in Stanley Cup playoff history

At home against the Blues in this series, it has been a different story, if not necessarily a great one: Hellebuyck is 3-0 in Winnipeg, with an .879 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average.

His home numbers in the regular season: 27-3-3 with a .938 save percentage and a 1.63 goals-against average in 33 games. His road numbers: 20-9-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. Hellebuyck was not pulled in his 63 appearances in the regular season.

Even with Hellebuyck’s multiple seasons of playoff struggles, his team exonerated him from blame for the Game 6 loss.

“I don’t need to talk about Bucky,” said forward Nikolaj Ehlers, who returned to the lineup for the first time since April 12 after a foot injury. “He’s been unbelievable for us all year. He’s continued to do that. We’ve got to be better.”

Said forward Cole Perfetti, who had a goal in Game 6: “Things got carried away. We lost our game for four or five minutes. They got a couple pucks through, and they found the back of the net. It’s frustrating. Happened a couple of times now this series where we fell asleep and they jumped on us.”

Perfetti said the Jets have rebounded from losses like this — one reason their confidence isn’t shaken ahead of Sunday’s Game 7.

“We had a loss like that in Game 4 [in St. Louis],” he said. “We went home and got the job done in Game 5. We’ve got the home ice. We’ve got the fans behind us and our barn rocking.”

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College football Luck Index 2025: Who needs luck on their side next season?

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College football Luck Index 2025: Who needs luck on their side next season?

Almost no word in the English language makes a college football fan more defensive than the L-word: luck.

We weren’t lucky to have a great turnover margin — our coaches are just really good at emphasizing ball security! We’re tougher than everyone else — that’s why we recovered all those fumbles!

We weren’t lucky to win all those close games — we’re clutch! Our coaches know how to press all the right buttons! Our quarterback is a cool customer!

We weren’t lucky to have fewer injuries than everyone else — our strength-and-conditioning coach is the best in America! And again: We’re just tougher!

As loath as we may be to admit it, a large percentage of a given college football season — with its small overall sample of games — is determined by the bounce of a pointy ball, the bend of a ligament and the whims of fate. Certain teams will end up with an unsustainably good turnover margin that turns on them the next year. Certain teams (often the same ones) will enjoy a great run of close-game fortune based on some combination of great coaching, sturdy quarterback play, timely special teams contributions … and massive amounts of unsustainable randomness. Certain teams will keep their starting lineups mostly intact for 12 or more games while another is watching its depth chart change dramatically on a week-to-week basis.

As we prepare for the 2025 college football season, it’s worth stepping back and looking at who did, and didn’t, get the bounces in 2024. Just because Lady Luck was (or wasn’t) on your side one year, doesn’t automatically mean your fortunes will flip the next, but that’s often how these things go. Be it turnovers, close-game fortune or injuries, let’s talk about the teams that were dealt the best and worst hands last fall.

Jump to a section:
Turnover luck | Close games luck
Injuries and general shuffling | Turnaround candidates

Turnover luck

In last year’s ACC championship game, Clemson bolted to a 24-7 halftime lead, then white-knuckled it to the finish. SMU came back to tie the score at 31 with only 16 seconds left, but Nolan Hauser‘s 56-yard field goal at the buzzer gave the Tigers a 34-31 victory and a spot in 2024’s College Football Playoff at Alabama’s expense.

In the first series of the game, Clemson’s T.J. Parker pulled a perfect sack-and-strip of SMU QB Kevin Jennings, forcing and falling on a loose ball at the SMU 33-yard line. Clemson scored two plays later to take a 7-0 lead. Late in the first quarter, Khalil Barnes picked off a Jennings pass near midfield, ending what could have become a scoring threat with one more first down. A few minutes later, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik fumbled at the end of a 14-yard gain, but tight end Jake Briningstool recovered it at midfield, preventing another potential scoring threat from developing. (Klubnik fumbled seven times in the 2024 season but lost only one of them.)

Early in the third quarter, after SMU cut Clemson’s lead to 24-14, David Eziomume fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the Clemson 6, but teammate Keith Adams Jr. recovered it right before two SMU players pounced.

Over 60 minutes, both teams fumbled twice, and Clemson defended (intercepted or broke up) eight passes to SMU’s seven. On average, 50% of fumbles are lost and about 21% of passes defended become INTs, so Clemson’s expected turnover margin in this game was plus-0.2 (because of the extra pass defended). The Tigers’ actual turnover margin was plus-2, a difference of 1.8 turnovers in a game they barely won.

Clemson was obviously a solid team in 2024, but the Tigers probably wouldn’t have reached the CFP without turnovers luck. For the season, they fumbled 16 times but lost only three, and comparing their expected (based on the averages above) and actual turnover margins, almost no one benefited more from the randomness of a bouncing ball.

It probably isn’t a surprise to see that, of last year’s 12 playoff teams, eight benefited from positive turnovers luck, and six were at plus-3.3 or higher. You’ve got to be lucky and good to win, right?

You aren’t often lucky for two straight years, though. It might be noteworthy to point out that, of the teams in Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early 2025 rankings, five were in the top 20 in terms of turnovers luck: No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Clemson, No. 9 BYU, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 17 Indiana (plus two others from his Teams Also Considered list: Army and Baylor).

It’s also noteworthy to point out that three teams on Schlabach’s list — No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU and No. 15 SMU — ranked in the triple-digits in terms of turnovers luck. Oregon started the season 13-0 without the benefit of bounces. For that matter, Auburn, a team on the Also Considered list, ranked 125th in turnovers luck in a season that saw the Tigers go just 1-3 in one-score finishes. There might not have been a more what-could-have-been team in the country than Hugh Freeze’s Tigers.


Close games

One of my favorite tools in my statistical toolbox is what I call postgame win expectancy. The idea is to take all of a game’s key, predictive stats — all the things that end up feeding into my SP+ rankings — and basically toss them into the air and say, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.”

Alabama‘s 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 5 was one of the most impactful results of the CFP race. It was also one of the least likely results of the season in terms of postgame win expectancy. Bama averaged 8.8 yards per play to Vandy’s 5.6, generated a 56% success rate* to Vandy’s 43% and scored touchdowns on all four of its trips into the red zone. It’s really hard to lose when you do all of that — in fact, the Crimson Tide’s postgame win expectancy was a whopping 98.5%. (You can see all postgame win expectancy data here)

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth. It is one of the more reliable and predictive stats you’ll find, and it’s a big part of SP+.)

Vandy managed to overcome these stats in part because of two of the most perfect bounces you’ll ever see. In the first, Jalen Milroe had a pass batted at the line, and it deflected high into the air and, eventually, into the arms of Randon Fontenette, who caught it on the run and raced 29 yards for a touchdown and an early 13-0 lead.

In the second half, with Bama driving to potentially take the lead, Miles Capers sacked Milroe and forced a fumble; the ball sat on the ground for what felt like an eternity before Yilanan Ouattara outwrestled a Bama lineman for it. Instead of trailing, Vandy took over near midfield and scored seven plays later. It took turnovers luck and unlikely key-play execution — despite a 43% success rate, Diego Pavia and the Commodores went 12-for-18 on third down and 1-for-1 on fourth — for Vandy to turn a 1.5% postgame win expectancy into a victory. It also wasn’t Alabama’s only incredibly unlikely loss: The Tide were at 87.8% to beat Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl but fell 19-13.

(Ole Miss can feel the Tide’s pain: The Rebels were at 76.0% postgame win expectancy against Kentucky and 73.7% against Florida. There was only a 6% chance that they would lose both games, and even going 1-1 would have likely landed them a CFP bid. They lost both.)

Adding up each game’s postgame win expectancy is a nice way of seeing how many games a team should have won on average. I call this a team’s second-order win total. Alabama was at 10.7 second-order wins but went 9-4. That was one of the biggest differences of the season. Somehow, however, Iron Bowl rival Auburn was even more unfortunate.

Based solely on stats, Arkansas State should have won about four games, and Auburn should have won about eight. Instead, the Red Wolves went 8-5 and the Tigers went 5-7.

Comparing win totals to these second-order wins is one of the surest ways of identifying potential turnaround stories for the following season. In 2023, 15 teams had second-order win totals at least one game higher than their actual win totals — meaning they suffered from poor close-game fortune. Ten of those 15 teams saw their win totals increase by at least two games in 2024, including East Carolina (from 2-10 to 8-5), TCU (5-7 to 9-4), Pitt (3-9 to 7-6), Boise State (8-6 to 12-2) and Louisiana (6-7 to 10-4). On average, these 15 teams improved by 1.9 wins.

On the flip side, 19 teams overachieved their second-order win totals by at least 1.0 wins in 2023. This list includes both of 2023’s national title game participants, Washington and Michigan. The Huskies and Wolverines sank from a combined 29-1 in 2023 to 14-12 in 2024, and it could have been even worse. Michigan overachieved again, going 8-5 despite a second-order win total of 6.0. Other 2023 overachievers weren’t so lucky. Oklahoma State (from 10-4 to 3-9), Wyoming (from 9-4 to 3-9), Northwestern (from 8-5 to 4-8) and NC State (from 9-4 to 6-7) all won more games than the stats expected in 2023, and all of them crumpled to some degree in 2024. On average, the 19 overachieving teams regressed by 1.9 wins last fall.

It’s worth keeping in mind that several teams in Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 — including No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU, No. 11 Iowa State, No. 13 Illinois and, yes, No. 21 Michigan — all exceeded statistical expectations in wins last season, as did Also Considered teams like Army, Duke, Missouri and Texas Tech. The fact that Oregon and LSU overachieved while suffering from poor turnovers luck is (admittedly) rather unlikely and paints a conflicting picture.

Meanwhile, one should note that three Way-Too-Early teams — No. 12 Alabama, No. 23 Miami and No. 25 Ole Miss (plus Washington and, of course, Auburn from the Also Considered list) — all lost more games than expected last season. With just a little bit of good fortune, they could prove to be awfully underrated.


Injuries and general shuffling

Injuries are hard to define in college football — coaches are frequently canny in the information they do and do not provide, and with so many teams in FBS, it’s impossible to derive accurate data regarding how many games were missed due to injury.

We can glean quite a bit from starting lineups, however. Teams with lineups that barely changed throughout the season were probably pretty happy with their overall results, while teams with ever-changing lineups likely succumbed to lots of losses. Below, I’ve ranked teams using a simple ratio: I compared (a) the number of players who either started every game or started all but one for a given team to (b) the number of players who started only one or two games, likely as a stopgap. If you had far more of the former, your team likely avoided major injury issues and, with a couple of major exceptions, thrived. If you had more of the latter, the negative effects were probably pretty obvious.

Despite the presence of 1-11 Purdue and 2-10 Kennesaw State near the top of the list — Purdue fielded one of the worst power conference teams in recent memory and barely could blame injury for its issues — you can still see a decent correlation between a positive ratio and positive results. The six teams with a ratio of at least 2.8 or above went a combined 62-22 in 2024, while the teams with a 0.5 ratio or worse went 31-56.

Seven of nine conference champions had a ratio of at least 1.3, and 11 of the 12 CFP teams were at 1.44 or higher (five were at 2.6 or higher). Indiana, the most shocking of CFP teams, was second on the list above; epic disappointments like Oklahoma and, especially, Florida State were near the bottom. (The fact that Georgia won the SEC and reached the CFP despite a pretty terrible injury ratio speaks volumes about the depth Kirby Smart has built in Athens. Of course, the Dawgs also enjoyed solid turnovers luck.)


Major turnaround candidates

It’s fair to use this information as a reason for skepticism about teams like Indiana (turnovers luck and injuries luck), Clemson (turnovers luck), Iowa State (close-games luck), Penn State (injuries luck) or Sam Houston (all of the above, plus a coaching change), but let’s end on an optimistic note instead. Here are five teams that could pretty easily enjoy a big turnaround if Lady Luck is a little kinder.

Auburn Tigers: Auburn enjoyed a better success rate than its opponents (44.7% to 38.5%) and made more big plays as well (8.9% of plays gained 20-plus yards versus 5.7% for opponents). That makes it awfully hard to lose! But the Tigers made exactly the mistake they couldn’t make and managed to lose games with 94%, 76% and 61% postgame win expectancy. There’s nothing saying this was all bad luck, but even with a modest turnaround in fortune, the Tigers will have a very high ceiling in 2025.

Florida Gators: The Gators improved from 41st to 20th in SP+ and from 5-7 to 8-5 overall despite starting three quarterbacks and 12 different DBs and ranking 132nd on the list above. That says pretty spectacular things about their overall upside, especially considering their improved experience levels on the O-line, in the secondary and the general optimism about sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.

Florida Atlantic Owls: Only one team ranked 111th or worse in all three of the tables above — turnovers luck (111th), second-order win difference (121st) and injury ratio (131st). You could use this information to make the case that the Owls shouldn’t have fired head coach Tom Herman, or you could simply say that new head coach Zach Kittley is pretty well-positioned to get some bounces and hit the ground running.

Florida State Seminoles: There was evidently plenty of poor fortune to go around in the Sunshine State last season, and while Mike Norvell’s Seminoles suffered an epic hangover on the field, they also didn’t get a single bounce: They were 129th in turnovers luck, 99th in second-order win difference and 110th in injury ratio. Norvell has brought in new coordinators and plenty of new players, and the Noles are almost guaranteed to jump up from 2-10. With a little luck, that jump could be a pretty big one.

Utah Utes: Along with UCF, Utah was one of only two teams to start four different quarterbacks in 2024. The Utes were also among only four teams to start at least 11 different receivers or tight ends and among five teams to start at least nine defensive linemen. If you’re looking for an easy explanation for how they fell from 65th to 96th in offensive SP+ and from 8-5 to 5-7 overall, that’s pretty succinct and telling.

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Good Cheer rallies in slop to win Kentucky Oaks

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Good Cheer rallies in slop to win Kentucky Oaks

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Unbeaten filly Good Cheer rallied on the outside through the slop to overtake Tenma by the final furlong and win the 151st Kentucky Oaks on Friday at Churchill Downs.

Louisville-born trainer Brad Cox watched the heavy 6-5 favorite cover 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.15 with Luis Saez aboard. Good Cheer paid $4.78, $3.62 and $3.02 for her seventh dominant victory.

The bay daughter of Megdalia d’Oro and Wedding Toast by Street entered the Oaks with a combined victory margin of more than 42 lengths, and on Friday, she added more distance to her resume with a stunning surge over a mushy track.

Cox, who grew up blocks from Churchill Downs, earned his third Oaks win and Saez his second.

Drexel Hill paid $21.02 and $11.76 for second while Bless the Broken was third and returned $4.78.

A thunderstorm that roared through about two hours before the scheduled post left the track soggy and sent many of the 100,910 fans seeking shelter at the track’s urging. The $1.5 million showcase for 3-year-old fillies was delayed by 10 minutes, and the conditions proved to be a minor nuisance for Good Cheer.

She was off the pace after starting from the No. 11 post but well within range of the leaders before charging forward through the final turns. Good Cheer was fourth entering the stretch and closed inside and into the lead, pulling away for her fourth win at Churchill Downs and second in the mud.

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